New Year Picks 2025

(Retail Research Desk)

Company Name CMP Target Price Upside
Axiscades Technologies Ltd 640 838 31%
Birla Corporation Ltd 1,243 1,497 20%
Ceat Ltd 3,244 3,860 19%
Elecon Engineering Co. Ltd 642 892 39%
Privi Speciality Chemicals Ltd 1,688 2,126 26%
Samhi Hotels Ltd 196 269 38%
Vishal Mega Mart Ltd 106 141 33%

27th December 2024

 Axiscades Technologies
CMP: Rs. 640| Target: Rs. 838 | Upside: 31%
Axiscades Technologies Ltd. (ATL) is a tech company providing engineering and technology services to various
industries like Aerospace, Defense, Automotive, heavy engineering, etc. The Co works with global OEMs and Tier-1
suppliers in these industries. Key clients include Airbus, Bombardier JLR, Volkswagen, Ford, Texas Instruments, and
Caterpillar amongst others.
Expertise with deep domain presence across industries - ATL serves multiple industries with its expertise in
providing end-to-end engineering services including design, development and product lifecycle support offering
resilience and growth in business. Moreover, it has a robust customer base that includes global OEMs and Tier 1
suppliers fostering long-term business relationships with the company. ATL’s order book increased by 27% YoY to Rs.
749 crore in Q2FY25 Such substantial orders underscore Axiscades’s capabilities and its strategic role in delivering
advanced engineering solutions across various sectors.
Aerospace and Defense Verticals to grow by 20-25% going forward- ATL has won a critical work package on aero
structures (TCV - $15m) thereby solidifying its presence in the aerospace vertical. It plans to focus on digital side in
aerospace by broadening its presence in Europe enabling better interaction. Also, it is expanding in North America
and India with increased areas of service - manufacturing support and final assembly lines. In the defense vertical,
Rs. 121 crore worth orders were added in Q2’25, taking the total order book in defense vertical to Rs.377 crore.
Production revenues increased 84% QoQ indicating execution of design wins from the past and order book expansion.
Production revenues are expected to ramp up in H2 FY25 at higher margins. The company will continue to focus on
large deals in defense space and has revamped leadership to align to its future aspirations. There is a strong order
pipeline with opportunities in anti-drone systems, missile launching programs, and other defense initiatives.
 Axiscades Technologies
CMP: Rs. 640| Target: Rs. 838 | Upside: 31%
Improving Financials - Co has guided H2FY25 to be better than H1FY25, especially the Q4. It has given good
outlook for FY26 with contribution from defense vertical to rise garnering higher EBIDTA margins as well.
At current price of ~ Rs.640, stock is available at ~ 25x FY26E earnings, one can buy the stock for a price target of
Rs.838 (31% upside).

Risks
• Automotive and High Engineering verticals continue to face headwinds for the Company. In the heavy
engineering space (which contributes 14% to topline), Caterpillar is the major client. Billing rates are not
impressive from this client and Co is currently negotiating with the client. Here again, revenues will be
flattish but Co expects significant improvement in margins going fwd.
• Automotive sector continues to lag due to loss of revenues from its OEM with Volkswagen. It expects this
vertical to follow industry level growth.

Figures in Rs Cr

Year Revenue Growth EBITDA Margin PAT Margin EPS PE EV/EBITDA ROCE
FY23 821.6 34.6% 141.7 14.0% -4.76 -0.6% -1.2 -89.9 13.2 16.6%
FY24 955.1 16.0% 133.2 10.4% 33.00 4.0% 8.0 56.2 15.2 18.5%
FY25E 1098.4 12.0% 164.8 11.4% 74.00 7.0% 17.7 34.1 17.5 22.2%
FY26E 1296.1 15.0% 207.4 12.5% 99.00 8.0% 23.7 24.9 13.6 24.5%
 Birla Corporation
CMP: Rs. 1,243 | TP: Rs. 1,497| Upside: 20%
Birla Corporation, a MP Birla group company, is engaged in the business of manufacturing of cement & also has
presence in the jute business. Currently, cement capacity stands at 20 MTPA with 11 plants across Madhya Pradesh,
Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra & West Bengal. Cement business contributes 95% to total revenue, while jute
business contributes 5%

In the recent quarter, Birla Corporation faced significant challenges due to adverse external market conditions that
impacted both demand and pricing within the cement industry. The company's realization per ton for Q2 of FY2025
was ₹4,918, reflecting a 10% decline compared to the same quarter last year and a 2% decrease from the previous
quarter. Similarly, the EBITDA per ton also saw a sharp decline, dropping to ₹446, which represents a 35% decrease
from Q2 FY2024 and a 24% drop from the preceding quarter.

Company sustained its premium product sales were up in Q2 of FY2025, sales of premium products constituted 62%
of the sales mix, up from 54% in Q2 FY2024. Additionally, power and fuel costs saw a significant dip on half yearly
basis, they came at 1014 per/ton v/s 1168 per/ton in h1 of 2024 . To further improve energy efficiency the company
continues to emphasize on renewable energy, which made up 24.2% of total power consumption in FY2023-24.

The company plans to increase its cement production capacity from 20 MTPA to 25 MTPA by FY2027. This expansion
includes a 1.4 MTPA increase at the Kundanganj plant, expected to be commissioned in Q1 FY2026, and a similar
expansion at the Prayagraj facility, with a future commissioning date. These initiatives are projected to positively
impact the company's topline performance, enabling it to better meet rising demand in the cement market and
enhance its competitive positioning.
 Birla Corporation
CMP: Rs. 1,243 | TP: Rs. 1,497| Upside: 20%
Valuation

• The company experienced muted growth in its financial performance during the first half of FY2025, is
anticipated to witness revival in the second half of the fiscal year. This expected improvement is driven by
increased demand, government spending, and the ramp-up of existing capacities. Furthermore, the EBITDA per
ton, which currently stands at ₹423.92, is projected to rise due to enhanced realization and a continued focus on
cost reduction. Additionally, the growing share of premium products in the company's sales mix is expected to
positively impact future EBITDA per ton, contributing to improved profitability.

• To optimize costs, Birla Corporation Limited has initiated several strategic projects, including Project Shikhar and
Project Unnati. These initiatives have successfully resulted in gross savings of approximately ₹66cr and ₹100cr,
respectively, in FY24. By focusing on enhancing operational efficiencies and streamlining processes, the company
aims to further improve its cost structure and overall profitability.

• Stock is currently trading at 8.7x to FY26 EV/EBITDA. We assign 10x to FY26E EBITDA to arrive at a target of
Rs. 1,497/share with an upside of 20% over the CMP.
Figures in Rs Cr

Year Volume Revenue Growth EBITDA Margin PAT Growth EPS EV/EBITDA

FY23 15.7 8682 165 772 9% 40 39.8% 5 14.64x

FY24 17.6 9661 11% 1438 15% 421 -44.6% 55 8.35x
FY25E 18.2 9243 -4% 1155 12% 229 12.0% 30 11.50x
FY26E 20.0 2,839 12% 1513 15% 497 68.4% 65 8.74x
 Ceat Ltd
CMP: Rs. 3,244 | TP: Rs. 3,860| Upside: 19%
CEAT Ltd, established in 1958 and part of the RPG Group, is one of the leading Indian tire manufacturers with a strong
international presence across 100 countries. It produces tires for two-wheelers, passenger cars, trucks, buses, off-road vehicles,
and electric vehicles (EVs).
Over the last five years, CEAT's revenue has grown at a CAGR of 11.2%, outperforming the industry average of 8.7%, with its
market share increasing from 10.7% to 12%. CEAT holds a 30% market share in electric two-wheeler tires and 25% in passenger EV
tires, with plans for further product development.
In December 2024, CEAT acquired Camso's Off-Highway Tires business for ₹1,905 Cr, gaining brand rights, two Sri Lankan plants,
and access to high-margin, profitable segments. The Camso deal is expected to add substantial value and strengthen CEAT's
position in the European and North American markets.
Rubber and carbon black prices have been declining over the last 2–3 months, with the full benefit expected in Q4 FY25.
Double-digit growth is anticipated in the replacement and international business segments during H2 FY25.
Valuation and Recommendation:
CEAT Ltd, supported by its robust global presence and innovative product portfolio, is well-positioned to leverage growth in EV
demand and international markets, aided by its recent Camso acquisition. Declining prices of rubber and carbon black will be
beneficial for the company and the valuation of 14.6x its FY2027E EPS appears attractive; hence, we recommend a BUY on the
stock with a price target of ₹3,860, an upside potential of 19%. Figures in Rs Cr

Year Revenues Growth EBITDA Margin PAT Growth EPS PE EV/EBITDA ROE

FY23 11315 21% 974 6.4% 182 156% 46.02 67.9 14.9 5%
FY24 11944 6% 1652 13.8% 701 285% 173.0 18.1 8.8 17%
FY25E 13130 10% 1548 11.8% 583 -17% 144.3 21.7 9.4 13%
FY26E 14642 12% 1863 12.7% 770 32% 187.5 16.7 7.8 16%
FY27E 16132 10% 2121 13.1% 916 19% 214.4 14.6 6.8 16%
 Elecon Engineering Co.
CMP: Rs. 642 | TP: Rs. 892| Upside: 39%
Elecon is a manufacturer of industrial gears (~80% mix) & material handling equipment (MHE) (~20% mix). It
is a proxy on industrial capex across cement, steel, mining, power, oil & gas and other sectors.
Elecon is the leader in industrial gears with a market share of 35% in India.
Elecon witnessed a temporary slowdown in its gear business during H1FY25 owing to elections which
delayed ordering activity during Q1FY25 (inflows down 11% YoY). Order inflows have recovered in Q2FY25
(+15% YoY) and shall gain further momentum and translate to strong execution from Q3FY25.
After a decade of juggling issues related to legacy EPC projects, the MHE segment has completely turned
around from losses in FY22 to reaching segmental margins of ~26% in H1FY25. Unlike before, it no longer
participates in EPC projects and all new orders are for products or after-market sales. Order book in MHE has
increased by 176% YoY to Rs. 339 Cr in Q2FY25 which provides strong growth visibility.
We believe Elecon witnessed an election led temporary slowdown during H1FY25 and shall stage a strong
comeback from Q3FY25 onwards. We expect a CAGR of 18%/22% in revenue/profits, over FY25–27E along with
stable ROCE of 26%. We assign a TP of Rs. 892, valuing the company at 25x 2027E EPS.
Figures in Rs Cr

Year Revenues Growth EBITDA Margin PAT Growth EPS PE EV/EBITDA ROCE
FY24 1937 27% 474 24.5% 356 50% 15.8 40.5 29.2 28%
FY25E 2201 14% 510 23.2% 385 8% 17.2 37.4 27.2 25%
FY26E 2597 18% 615 23.7% 474 23% 21.1 30.4 22.6 26%
FY27E 3045 17% 729 23.9% 572 21% 25.5 25.2 19.0 26%
 Privi Speciality Chemicals
CMP: Rs. 1,688 | TP: Rs. 2,126| Upside: 26%
Privi Speciality Chemicals Ltd is primarily engaged in the manufacturing, supply and exports of aroma and fragrance
chemicals used in soaps, detergents, shampoos, and other fine fragrances. It started its manufacturing operations in 1992
from Unit -1 at Mahad.
Strong growth expected backed by expansion in existing capacity as well as new projects
• Though the company faced many challenges about margin contraction and decline in product prices by 30-40% over the
last 3-4 years, it has seen improved margins over the last six quarters backed by solid growth in core products, change in
product mix and contribution from all new products like Galaxmusk & its variant, Camphor & allied product and Prionyl.
• Privi is also focusing on enhancing its existing capacity in order to ensure the supply of its products as per the rising
market demand (at present running at ~80-85% utilization). New products such as Galaxmusk and Prionyl are expected to
run at peak capacity in the coming year and the management expects better volumes in the upcoming quarters.
• Privi has taken an approval for to raise up to ~Rs. 1000 cr through QIP for the following – i. Menthol & other high ended
Speciality products (Capex Rs. 550-600 crs) to be commissioned in 18 months post fund raises, ii. Capacity expansion of all
core products like DHMOL, Amber Fluer, Pine Oil, Prionyl (Capex Rs.250-300 crores to be commissioned in 12 months' time),
iii. Investment in Privi Fine Science for Green Field Project.
Focus on sustainability to drive Privi’s long term growth based on its vision
• Sustainability remains core at Privi’s business operations. While it is committed to achieve UN sustainable development
Goals, it has received Ecovadis Gold in Mar’24 (amongst world’s top 5% companies). It is a zero liquid discharge company.
Privi’s new green project: Menthol, which is developed based on its in-house technology to produce menthol through
renewable feedstock which is named as ‘Levomenthol’. This product is sustainable in nature and expects to support future
government mandate on the use of renewables in various FMCG products.
 Privi Speciality Chemicals
CMP: Rs. 1,688 | TP: Rs. 2,126| Upside: 26%
Further, JV with Givaudan, a global leader in fragrance and Beauty emphasizes Privi’s competent capabilities in the global
market. This strategic initiative has unfolded various opportunities for future growth.

Valuation
• Privi’s strategic alliances with big MNC players such as Givaudan, BASF, etc. backed by its strong R&D with ability to
deliver reliable and sustainable products has established its prominent position in the market. It ensures to sustain its
leading position in its key products such as Dihydromyrcenol, Amber Fleur, and the Pine Oil. Galaxmusk and its variants
have performed well in the initial year of its operations.
• It can achieve Rs. 2200-2500 cr of revenue at its existing capacity of 48000 MTPA considering current prevailing prices.
The management expects prices to improve for FY26. The company is in the process of finalizing contracts with all its top
customers for the CY2025 before Dec’24.
• Privi’s topline is expected to grow at ~22% CAGR between FY24-26E with 58% growth in bottom-line. As a result, return
ratios are expected to improve from ~11% in FY24 to ~18% in FY26E. The management has guided a strong fundamental
growth, where topline is expected at ~Rs. 5000 cr over the next 4-5 years with greater than ~20% EBITDA margin. We
assign PE Valuation of 35x to FY26E EPS to arrive at a target of Rs. 2,126/share with an upside of 26% over the CMP.

Figures in Rs Cr

Year Revenue Growth EBITDA Margin PAT Growth EPS PE EV/EBITDA ROE
FY23 1,608 14.5% 186 11.6% 20 -77.9% 5.21 211.2x 28.7x 2.4%
FY24 1,752 8.9% 325 18.6% 95 366.6% 24.30 52.6x 18.3x 10.7%
FY25E 2,100 19.9% 420 20.0% 163 72.1% 41.81 40.7x 18.2x 15.6%
FY26E 2,600 23.8% 546 21.0% 237 45.3% 60.75 28.0x 14.0x 18.6%
 Samhi Hotels
CMP: Rs. 196 | TP: Rs. 269| Upside: 38%
SAMHI Hotels Limited (SHL) is a branded hotel ownership and asset management platform. It has a portfolio of 5108 keys across
32 operating hotels in 13 cities. SHL operates under well-recognized hotel brands such as Courtyard by Marriott, Hyatt Place,
Sheraton, Hyatt Regency, Renaissance, Fairfield by Marriott, Holiday Inn Express etc. Company operates in Upper upscale,
Upscale, Upper middle, and Middle scale categories hotel. SHL mainly focuses on business Hotels.
SHL is on track for strong growth through new assets in key markets, expansion of existing inventory and renovation/
rebranding of some of its existing hotels.
Recently, the Co has renovated and reopened 133 roomed Caspia Pro in Greater Noida as Holiday Inn Express. Co is likely to
benefit from strong demand in Greater Noida.
Co has also acquired 100% stake in Inmar Tourism and Hotels in Oct’24 adding 142 rooms immediately to its existing portfolio.
Co will be renovating and upgrading these rooms which later will have potential of higher RevPAR and better margins. Further, it
will be constructing 200-220 rooms here funded through internal accruals.
SHL has signed a long-term variable lease agreement in Hitec City, Hyderabad to develop an Upper Upscale hotel with 170 -
175 rooms.
On similar lines, 167- room new hotel in Calcutta and Bangalore (under the Holiday Inn Express brand) have also been
completed and are currently under pre-opening stage and is expected to be operational in FY25.
SHL’s strategy of acquisition led growth and transforming under-performing hotels has paved well for it. It continues to focus on
large office and aviation markets allowing it a predictable, strong and sustainable growth. We are positive on company’s long
term performance backed by strong demand environment. We assign EV/EBITDA multiple of 15x to FY26 EBITDA to arrive at a
target of Rs. 269/share with an upside of 38%.
Figures in Rs Cr

Year Revenue Growth EBITDA Margin PAT EPS EV/EBITDA ROCE

FY23 739 128.7% 240 32.5% -339 -39.7 11.9 0%
FY24 957 29.6% 327 34.1% -235 -10.7 17.2 -0.9%
FY25E 1185 23.8% 444 37.5% 107 4.8 15.0 9.3%
FY26E 1336 12.8% 516 38.6% 204 9.3 15.0 15.1%
 Vishal Mega Mart
CMP: Rs. 106 | Target: Rs. 141| Upside: 33%
Incorporated in 2001, Vishal Mega Mart Limited (VMML) is a prominent player in India’s retail sector operating over 645 stores
across India offering a variety of apparel and FMCG products. VMML is the one stop destination for middle and lower-middle
income India. It’s strengths position it well within the rapidly expanding Indian retail market, allowing it to capitalize on
emerging opportunities.
Increasing own brands portfolio aiding growth: VMML has large presence in tier-2/3 towns in India and has aggressive store
expansion plans. Own brands contributed ~73% of revenues for H1FY25. During FY24, 19 own brands recorded sales exceeding
Rs. 100 cr each and six own brands recording sales of over Rs. 500 cr each. Sales of own brands grew at a CAGR of 28% between
FY2022-24.
Focus in non-Metro markets– Unlike many competitors that primarily target metropolitan areas, VMML strategically focuses
on smaller cities and rural markets. This approach enables the company to capture the growing consumption power in these
underserved regions.
Asset-Light Business Model: By leasing distribution centers and stores rather than owning them outright, Co minimizes
capital expenditures. Also, Investment in working capital cycle is lower at less than 15 days. This asset-light approach allows the
company to focus on operational efficiency and flexibility in scaling its operations.
Valuations: VMML is a leading retail player; well positioned to capitalize from the growing needs of middle and lower class
segments. It has both online and offline channels that bodes well for the company to drive same store sales growth in the
coming years. At CMP, the stock is available at 22.3x its FY2026 EV/ EBIDTA which is at a discount to close peers and large
retailers in the value retail space and thus recommend BUY on the stock. Figures in Rs Cr

Year Revenue Growth EBITDA Margin PAT Margin EPS EV/SALES EV/EBITDA ROE
FY23 7586.0 35.7% 1020.5 13.5% 321.3 4.2% 0.7 6.3 46.8 6.2%
FY24 8911.9 17.5% 1248.6 14.0% 461.9 5.2% 1.0 5.3 38.2 8.2%
FY25E 10528.9 18.1% 1488.5 14.1% 565.7 5.4% 1.3 4.5 31.9 9.5%
FY26E 12389.8 17.7% 1791.9 14.5% 715.3 5.8% 1.6 3.8 26.3 11.1%
 Performance-2024 Picks

Report Target 52W

Company Name Upside CMP Returns
Price Price High

Bank Of Baroda 231 300 30% 245 298 29%

Dollar Industries 462 554 20% 483 660 43%
Sai Silks (Kalamandir) 275 344 25% 167 294 7%
Samhi Hotels 167 257 54% 196 238 43%
Venus Pipes & Tubes 1,397 1,920 37% 1,523 2,490 78%
CMP as on 27th December 2024
 FUNDAMENTAL TEAM

Name Sectors E-mail Numbers

Sunil Jain Head Equity Research – Retail sunil.jain@nirmalbang.com 6273 8195/96

Jehan Bhadha Banks & NBFC, Auto, Capital Goods jehankersi.bhadha@nirmalbang.com 6273 8174

Priyanka Ghadigaonkar Chemicals, FMCG priyanka.g@nirmalbang.com 6273 8177

Kavita Vempalli IT, Telecom, Logistics, Textile kavita.vempalli@nirmalbang.com 6273 8034

Devendra Pawar Banks & NBFC, Auto, Capital Goods devendra.pawar@nirmalbang.com 6273 8149

Shivani Walam Database Management Shivani.walam@nirmalbang.com 6273 8091

Saurav Motivaras Database Management Saurav.Motivaras@nirmalbang.com 6273 8054

Darxit Jain Database Management darxit.jain@nirmalbang.com 6273 8054

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