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14January2025_India_Daily

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India Daily

January 14, 2025 NIFTY50 [Jan 13]: 23,086

Contents

Daily Alerts
Results
HCL Technologies: Moderates near-term outlook
 Retail-driven growth in services; slight miss on products
 Narrows organic guidance; expect a muted 4QFY25
 Portfolio mix may soften participation in industry growth recovery a tad
 Maintain REDUCE at unchanged FV of Rs1,760

Sector Alerts
Pharmaceuticals: IPM pulse—volume uptick remains elusive
 JB, Ipca and Ajanta growth leaders; Alembic and Sanofi lag in 3QFY25
 Market share: Cipla, Glenmark and GSK top gainers; FDC and Torrent top losers
 Risk of further acceleration in generics adoption not baked in

Economy Alerts
Economy: December CPI inflation softens as expected
 Food price inflation moderates but remains high
 Core inflation decelerates marginally
 We retain our February rate cut call

Private Circulation Only.


This document may only be distributed to QIBs (qualified institutional buyers) as defined under rule 144A of the Securities A ct of 1933
RESULT

HCL Technologies (HCLT) REDUCE


IT Services
CMP(₹): 1,989 Fair Value(₹): 1,760 Sector View: Neutral NIFTY-50: 23,086 January 13, 2025

Moderates near-term outlook Company data and valuation summary


HCLT reported solid services business growth, led by the retail vertical and a Stock data
miss on products. Organic guidance was narrowed with the same midpoint.
CMP(Rs)/FV(Rs)/Rating 1,989/1,760/REDUCE
The company will benefit from improving demand, with early indications from
52-week range (Rs) (high-low) 2,012-1,235
a broad-based deal pipeline. Yet the near term will be muted due to the mega
Mcap (bn) (Rs/US$) 5,399/62.3
deal anniversary. We expect HCLT to benefit from the fair share of
ADTV-3M (mn) (Rs/US$) 4,890/56.4
opportunities during the industry growth recovery uptick in discretionary
spends. We expect the growth acceleration to be lower than select peers due Shareholding pattern (%)
to its portfolio mix and tepid large deal wins in the past several quarters.
2.3
3.5
Stock trades at full valuations. Retain REDUCE; unchanged FV of Rs1,760. 6.3
8.5

Retail-driven growth in services; slight miss on products


18.7 60.8
HCLT reported revenue of US$3,533 mn, growing 3.8% in c/c qoq, missing our
estimate by 60 bps. The miss was entirely led by the products segment, while
Promoters FPIs MFs BFIs Retail Others
the services segment’s growth was better, led by IT services. ITBS grew at 1.5%,
while ERD services grew 5.4%, aided by the CTG acquisition (320 bps qoq). Price performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
Growth was driven by retail and hi-tech. EBIT margin was up 90 bps qoq to Absolute 1 8 29

Private Circulation Only. This document may only be distributed to QIBs (qualified institutional buyers) as defined under rule 144A of the Securities A ct of 1933
19.5% (flat yoy), aided by seasonal strength in the products segment (110 bps) Rel. to Nifty 8 16 24
and operational improvement (110 bps), partly offset by the impact of the wage Rel. to MSCI India 7 16 19

hike (80 bps) and furloughs (40 bps). The services EBIT margin was at 17.5%,
Forecasts/Valuations 2025E 2026E 2027E
down 30 bps qoq. Net profit of Rs45.9 bn was up 8.5% qoq and 5.6% yoy, and
EPS (Rs) 63.8 69.1 76.7
beat our estimates by 1%, driven by an EBIT beat.
EPS growth (%) 10.2 8.3 11.0

Narrows organic guidance; expect a muted 4QFY25 P/E (X) 31.2 28.8 25.9
P/B (X) 7.6 7.1 6.6
HCLT narrowed the FY2025 organic revenue growth guidance to 4.0-4.5% from
EV/EBITDA (X) 20.0 18.4 16.6
3.5-5.0%, keeping the midpoint constant. Inorganic contribution from the CTG
acquisition will be 50 bps in FY2025E. Guidance implies organic 4QFY25 qoq RoE (%) 24.9 25.4 26.4

revenue growth of (-)1.3-0.6%. The muted growth outlook is due to (1) the ramp- Div. yield (%) 2.8 2.9 3.0

down in a large program in retail, (2) planned reduction after the anniversary of Sales (Rs bn) 1,170 1,268 1,388

the Verizon mega deal, which will also impact 1QFY26 to some extent and (3) EBITDA (Rs bn) 256 277 303
ramp-up of recently won discretionary programs will take time. Net profits (Rs bn) 173 188 209

Source: Bloomberg, Company data, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates


Portfolio mix may soften participation in industry growth recovery a tad
Prices in this report are based on the market close of
HCLT has lesser exposure than peers in the BFS vertical, which has the best
January 13, 2025
visibility of recovery in discretionary spending. The company has considerable
exposure to verticals that face demand headwinds (manufacturing and
telecom) and a couple of verticals where discretionary spending is taking time
to improve (healthcare and public services). These verticals contribute to 56%
of revenue and can slow down the recovery pace. We forecast 5.9% organic c/c
revenue growth in FY2026E.

Maintain REDUCE at unchanged FV of Rs1,760


We cut FY2025-27E US$ revenue estimates by 1-4%. The EBIT margin is largely
unchanged. We incorporate revised INR/USD assumptions by KIE’s economist.
This results in a 1-2% cut in FY2026-27E EPS estimates. We value HCLT based
on SoTP, with an unchanged 23X P/E multiple for the services business and
10X EV/EBITDA for products. The stock trades at full valuations. Retain
REDUCE at an unchanged FV of Rs1,760.
Full sector coverage on KINSITE

Kawaljeet Saluja Sathishkumar S Vamshi Krishna


3

Retain vertical-driven growth


Services revenue growth was skewed toward retail (11.5% qoq in US$ terms), driving 109% incremental
US$ revenue in 3QFY25. Hi-tech grew 2.5% qoq. Manufacturing, telecom (organic), life sciences and
public services verticals declined sequentially in US$ terms. On a geo basis, Americas grew 1.6% qoq,
while Europe grew 0.3%.

Products business
The products business increased 18.7% qoq in c/c to US$400 mn lower than our expectations of US$416
mn. Note that the products business grew at a strong pace in 2QFY25, driven by US$22 mn incremental
revenue in perpetual license revenue due to the Actian product sales. The increase in perpetual license
sales normalized in 3QFY25, according to our expectations. Additionally, HCLT could not convert a few
renewals and new deal opportunities. EBIT margin hit a high of 34.5% in the products business, aided by
lower amortization and discontinuation of select products. HCLT reported a 4.5-5.0% revenue growth
guidance for the products business in FY2025E.

Valuations are relatively high on historical basis


HCLT trades at ~28X one-year forward earnings, in line with Bloomberg consensus estimates, among
highest levels in the past several years. The stock trades 6.5% above the 2X standard deviation from the
past five-year mean. Valuations have largely converged with Infosys and TCS.

Course for the medium term is ambitious and requires sharp execution
HCLT laid out its course for the medium term in its recent investor day, which includes the following:

Focus areas for growth. HCLT will focus on (1) full-stack AI solutions, (2) being a differentiated
challenger in enterprise apps such as SAP, data and AI, (3) cloud modernization opportunity, (4) digital
engineering, (5) cyber security, (6) market share gains in BPO through gen AI-driven optimization, (7)
better addressing G2000 and beyond G2000 demand, (8) increased market participation in focus and
new frontier markets, (9) better branding and marketing and (10) a larger partner ecosystem beyond
OEMs and hyperscalers
Cost takeout levers to fund investments and expand margins. Levers include (1) gen AI-led delivery
transformation, where HCLT can retain some benefits, (2) accelerated fresher deployment, (3) AI-led
customized learning programs to increase productivity and utilization, (4) lower-cost delivery
locations, (5) G&A optimization enabled by gen AI, (6) non-linear revenue models, leveraging AI-led
automation and solution accelerators and (7) expanding nearshore. Some efficiencies will fund
investments in building gen AI solutions, sales and marketing, and solutioning capacities.
Proactive gen AI adoption to increase market share. HCLT is proactively advocating the efficiency
benefits of generative AI to increase adoption in SDLC (especially testing) and BPO. Revenue deflation
is possible, but can be offset through AI-centric work such as modernization, cloud and data
architecture upgrades, and market share gains through higher volumes. HCLT has low exposure to
testing and BPO, which helps mitigate the impact.

Sharp growth in ACV, weak TCV


Deal TCV was weak at US$2.1 bn, down 6% qoq. HCLT did not win any mega deals during the quarter.
HCLT won seven large deals in the services segment and five large deals in HCLSoftware. Shorter
duration deals increased, aiding ACV, which grew 23% yoy and 9% qoq. Pipeline is strong and broad-
based across verticals and services with more smaller deals.

Complete acquisition of CTG from HPE


HCLT had earlier acquired CSS, part of the communication technology group (CTG) division of HPE,
focused on delivering engineering services and IP to global telecom operators around the BSS stack for
a consideration of US$225 mn. Clients include 20 of the top-30 global telcos in the markets of Japan,
Europe, Americas and APAC. According to the agreement, approximately 1,500 employees and 700
contractors from various countries, including Spain, Italy, India, Japan, China, Americas and the APAC
region transferred to HCLT. The acquisition will contribute 50 bps to growth in FY2025E and 100-110 bps
to incremental growth in FY2026E. The acquisition has reasonable strategic fit and will help provide access
to key telecom clients and increase capability in ERD services. Telecom operators are looking to cut
operational costs―the acquisition can pave the way for HCLT to compete for wallet share with large clients.

HCL Technologies
IT Services India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
4

Generative AI drives demand for legacy modernization, data and cloud


Legacy modernization programs are picking up steam due to generative AI. Clients are more willing to
engage in such programs with the aid of generative AI. Data programs are also getting accelerated. HCLT
saw a good uptick in data pipeline and the bookings. Additionally, generative AI is also driving more cloud
adoption.

Wage hikes offset by productivity improvements


EBIT margin expansion of 90 bps qoq to 18.5% from 17.6% was led by HCLSoftware (110 bps), operating
efficiencies (100 bps) and forex (20 bps) tailwinds, partly offset by (1) wage hike (80 bps), (2) furlough
(40 bps) and (3) CTG acquisition-related expenses (20 bps).

Key highlights from earnings call


Demand. Deal durations are reducing gradually with some increase in discretionary spend. HCLT
expects higher IT spending by companies in CY2025E. Management indicated that the deal pipeline
is inching toward ATH levels led by digital applications, engineer services and digital process
operations services. HCLT indicated broad-based revival in discretionary spending with the exception
of healthcare & life sciences and ERU and TTH industries (part of public services vertical).

Outlook. The 4QFY25E services segment organic revenue growth at (-)1.3% to 0.6% due to the
following factors: (1) The closure of large engagement in retail vertical in 3QFY25, (2) planned
reduction in a few large engagements and (3) partial ramp-up of new engagements. HCLT expects
usual seasonality to play out during 1QFY26E due to annual productivity passed-on to clients as part
of earlier large engagements and residual impact of large telecom deal (likely to be marginal).
Manufacturing (ex-auto) remains strong.

Deal wins. Deal TCV was weak at US$2.1 bn, down 6% qoq. The company attributed the weakness to
shorter duration deals won during the quarter. It indicated ACV growth of 23% yoy and 9% qoq. HCLT
won 7 large deals in services segment and 5 large deals in HCLSoftware.

ERD services. Decent momentum, aided by integrated sales organization, put in place. Europe
continues to be challenged due to weakness in auto. Auto is likely to remain weak for another couple
of quarters.

HCLSoftware. Sequential uptick was lower due to lower renewals by clients and deferred decision-
making in a few deals.

GenAI. HCLT is investing in both industry-specific and horizontal solutions to address client
requirements. Management believes net positive impact with increased demand for legacy
modernization, cloud and data services. Furthermore, agentic AI holds promise from a cost
perspective for specific use cases leveraging smaller models.

DSO. Receivable days (incl. unbilled) were at 77 days, down 2 days qoq and 9 days yoy.
Cash flow. LTM free cash flow generation was at US$2.7 bn with FCF/PAT at 134%.
Financial services. Continuing to see improvement in client spending. Increase in large- and medium-
sized deals across Europe.

Telecom. Cautious discretionary spending, particularly among OEMs.


Retail. One transformative project, which caused strong growth, came to an end. Good momentum
in 3-4 clients in this segment, particularly in the US. Pipeline is good.

Manufacturing. Ex-automotive is good. Automotive continues to be challenged. Expect 1-2 quarters


of decline before green shoots. Opportunity to construct large transformative deals.

Other highlights. Top-five and top-20 clients continue to expand their business with HCLT. Expect a
good booking in the next couple of quarters. Less dependent on H-1B visas with 80% localization rate.
M&A integration costs for CTG are one-time in nature. Currency fluctuations impacted client count in
the US$5 mn and US$10 mn categories. Growth momentum will continue in ERD.

HCL Technologies
IT Services India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
5

Revenue and margin beat entirely driven by products business


HCL Technologies’ Dec 2024 quarter financial performance under Ind AS (Rs mn)
% chg.
2QFY25 2QFY25E 2QFY24 1QFY25 KIE yoy qoq 1HFY25 1HFY24 % chg. FY2025E % chg.
Revenues (US$ mn) 3,445 3,428 3,225 3,364 0.5 6.8 2.4 6,809 6,425 6.0 13,985 5.4
Revenues 288,620 286,994 266,720 280,570 0.6 8.2 2.9 569,190 529,680 7.5 1,172,012 6.6
Cost of Revenues (187,890) (190,048) (174,170) (187,710) (1.1) 7.9 0.1 (375,600) (347,470) 8.1 (776,141) 7.6
Gross profit 100,730 96,946 92,550 92,860 3.9 8.8 8.5 193,590 182,210 6.2 395,871 4.8
SG&A expenses (37,040) (34,807) (33,110) (34,920) 6.4 11.9 6.1 (71,960) (68,900) 4.4 (140,556) 3.5
EBITDA 63,690 62,139 59,440 57,940 2.5 7.2 9.9 121,630 113,310 7.3 255,315 5.5
Depreciation (10,070) (10,199) (10,100) (9,980) (1.3) (0.3) 0.9 (20,050) (19,370) 3.5 (41,548) (0.3)
EBIT 53,620 51,939 49,340 47,960 3.2 8.7 11.8 101,580 93,940 8.1 213,767 6.7
Other Income 3,250 3,082 1,940 9,120 5.4 67.5 (64.4) 12,370 4,300 187.7 17,955 91.1
PBT 56,870 55,022 51,280 57,080 3.4 10.9 (0.4) 113,950 98,240 16.0 231,721 10.5
Provision for Tax (14,500) (14,031) (12,950) (14,480) 3.3 12.0 0.1 (28,980) (24,600) 17.8 (59,333) 13.0
PAT before share of earnings in affiliates 42,370 40,991 38,330 42,600 3.4 10.5 (0.5) 84,970 73,640 15.4 172,388 9.7
Share of income (loss) of equity investees - - - - - - -
Minority Interest (20) (17) (10) (20) (40) 20 (300.0) 84
Net Income (before extraordinaries) 42,350 40,974 38,320 42,580 3.4 10.5 (0.5) 84,930 73,660 15.3 172,472 9.8
Extraordinary items - - - - - - -
Net income (after extraordinaries) 42,350 40,974 38,320 42,580 3.4 10.5 (0.5) 84,930 73,660 172,472 9.8
Adjusted EPS (Rs/share) 15.6 15.1 14.1 15.7 3.5 10.5 (0.4) 61 58 6.2 63.4 9.6
Segmental revenues - new (US$ mn)
IT and Business Services 2,570 2,570 2,406 2,506 0.0 6.8 2.6 5,076 4,796 5.8 10,375 5.9
Engineering and R&D Services 544 549 516 535 (0.8) 5.5 1.8 1,079 1,009 7.0 2,204 3.9
Products & Platforms 341 310 319 333 10.1 6.8 2.4 674 652 3.4 1,406 4.1
Margins (%)
Gross Profit margin 34.9 33.8 34.7 33.1 34.0 34.4 33.8
SG&A as % of revenues 12.8 12.1 12.4 12.4 12.6 13.0 12.0
EBITDA Margin 22.1 21.7 22.3 20.7 21.4 21.4 21.8
EBIT Margin 18.6 18.1 18.5 17.1 17.8 17.7 18.2
Tax rate (as a % of PBT) 25.5 25.5 25.3 25.4 25.4 25.0 25.6
NPM 14.7 14.3 14.4 15.2 14.9 13.9 14.7

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Key changes to estimates, March fiscal year-ends, 2025-27E (Rs mn)


New Old Change (%)
US$ mn 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E
Revenues 13,847 14,649 15,868 13,985 15,203 16,469 (1.0) (3.6) (3.7)
- IT and Business Services 10,227 10,759 11,727 10,375 11,336 12,356 (1.4) (5.1) (5.1)
- ER&D 2,245 2,511 2,762 2,204 2,460 2,706 1.9 2.1 2.1
- Products & Platforms 1,376 1,378 1,378 1,406 1,407 1,407 (2.2) (2.1) (2.1)

Revenue growth yoy (%) 4.4 5.8 8.3 5.4 8.7 8.3
Revenue growth (c/c %) 4.9 7.0 8.3 4.9 8.6 8.3
Revenue growth (organic c/c %) 4.4 5.9 8.3 4.2 8.6 8.3

EBITDA 3,025 3,202 3,468 3,046 3,307 3,594 (0.7) (3.2) (3.5)
EBIT 2,542 2,749 3,012 2,551 2,849 3,137 (0.3) (3.5) (4.0)
Net Income 2,051 2,169 2,384 2,056 2,248 2,483 (0.3) (3.5) (4.0)

EBITDA margin (%) 21.8 21.9 21.9 21.8 21.7 21.8


EBIT 18.4 18.8 19.0 18.2 18.7 19.0
Re/ US$ rate 84.5 86.6 87.5 83.8 84.8 85.5

EPS Rs/ share 63.8 69.1 76.7 63.4 70.1 78.0 0.5 (1.4) (1.7)

Source: Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

HCL Technologies
IT Services India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
6

SoTP valuation leads to Fair Value of Rs1,760/share


US$ mn
Services business
Mar 2027 NOPAT for IT Services 1,566
Mar 2027 NOPAT for ER&D 388
Combined NOPAT for services 1,954
Multiple (X) 23
Attributable equity value for services 44,745
Products business
Mar 2027 EBITDA 538
EBITDA multiple (X) 10
Products business value 5,316
Combined equity value 50,062
Net cash/ (debt)--Mar 2027 3,693
Final equity value 53,755
Fair value (Rs/ share) 1,760

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Broad-based sequential revenue growth across verticals ex-State Street divestment


Revenue growth across geographies, verticals and service lines (Dec 2024 quarter)
Revenues Growth (%) Contribution to C/C growth (%)
(US$ mn) qoq yoy revenues (%) qoq yoy
Total revenues 3,533 2.6 3.5 100.0 3.8 4.1
Services revenues 3,144 1.0 4.5 89.0 2.2 4.9
Geographical split of revenues- (Services)
Americas 2,060 1.6 6.1 65.5 6.2
Europe 887 0.3 1.6 28.2 2.6
ROW 198 (2.1) 2.9 6.3 2.9
Vertical split of revenues- (Services)
Financial services 638 (0.0) (2.2) 20.3 (1.4)
Manufacturing 601 (1.1) (0.7) 19.1 -
Technology&Services 418 2.5 8.6 13.3 7.6
Retail & CPG 333 11.5 15.4 10.6 17.2
Telecom, media, publishing, entertainment 387 2.6 32.5 12.3 33.1
Life sciences 487 (2.2) (1.2) 15.5 (1.1)
Energy-utilities-public sector 280 (2.3) (4.1) 8.9 (4.6)
Service line split of revenues
IT and Business Services 2,579 0.4 5.3 73.0 1.5 5.8
Engineering and R&D Services 565 3.9 0.9 16.0 5.4 1.1
Products & Platforms 399 17.1 (5.0) 11.3 18.7 (2.1)
Client concentration (LTM)
Top 5 clients 1,735 5.0 35.4 9.8
Top 10 clients 2,796 1.9 20.8 17.7
Top 20 clients 4,255 1.2 16.2 28.0
Ex top 20 9,516 0.7 1.1 72.0

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

HCL Technologies
IT Services India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
7

Services EBIT margin declined 20 bps qoq to 17.6%


Trend in services (IT + ERD) EBIT margin, %, June 2018-December 2024

IT and business services ERD Services (IT + ERD)


25.0
24.0
23.0
22.0
21.0
20.0
19.0 18.9
18.0 17.6
17.0 17.3
16.0
15.0
Jun-19

Jun-20

Jun-24
Jun-18

Jun-21

Jun-22

Jun-23
Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22

Sep-23

Sep-24
Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-24
Mar-21

Mar-22

Mar-23
Dec-18

Dec-19

Dec-23

Dec-24
Dec-20

Dec-21

Dec-22
Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

ARR growth has decelerated considerably


Trend in software revenue growth and ARR growth, %, June 2022-December 2024

HCLSoftware revenue growth - c/c yoy (%) HCLSoftware ARR - c/c yoy (%)
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(6.0)
(8.0)
(10.0)
Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24 Sep-24 Dec-24

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

HCL Technologies
IT Services India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
8

Voluntary LTM attrition rate increased 30 bps qoq to 13.2%


Voluntary LTM attrition rate, %, June 2019-December 2024

HCLT
30.0

25.0

20.0

15.0
13.2

10.0

5.0
Jun-19

Jun-24
Jun-20

Jun-21

Jun-22

Jun-23
Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22

Sep-23

Sep-24
Mar-24
Mar-20

Mar-21

Mar-22

Mar-23

Dec-23

Dec-24
Dec-19

Dec-20

Dec-21

Dec-22
Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

EBIT margin increased 90 bps sequentially to 19.5%


EBIT margin, %, September 2012-December 2024

EBIT margins (%)


25

23

21

19.5
19

17

15
Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22

Sep-23

Sep-24
Mar-13

Mar-15

Mar-18

Mar-20

Mar-22
Mar-14

Mar-16

Mar-17

Mar-19

Mar-21

Mar-23

Mar-24

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

HCL Technologies
IT Services India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
9

Outsourcing expenses flat at 13% of revenue


Outsourcing costs (as a % of revenues), December 2015-December 2024

Outsourcing cost as a % of revenues


22.0

20.0

18.0

16.0

14.0
13.0
12.0

10.0
Jun-18

Jun-19

Jun-20
Jun-16

Jun-17

Jun-21

Jun-22

Jun-23

Jun-24
Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22

Sep-23

Sep-24
Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20
Mar-16

Mar-17

Mar-21

Mar-22

Mar-23

Mar-24
Dec-18

Dec-19

Dec-20
Dec-15

Dec-16

Dec-17

Dec-21

Dec-22

Dec-23

Dec-24
Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

New deal TCV muted at US$2.1 bn


TCV of new deal wins and growth trend (yoy), March 2020-December 2024

TCV of new deals (US$ bn) YoY growth (RHS, %)


4.5 80
4.0
4.0
60
3.5 64.0 66.5
3.1
40
3.0 49.0
38.0
37.0 2.25 2.4 2.3 2.3
2.5 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.1 25.2
2.2 2.1 20
23.4 1.9 2.0
2.0 1.6 1.7 1.6 0
10.4
1.3 6.0 9.9 8.7
1.5 1.2
(8.2) -20
1.0 (17.9)
(27.1) (23.8) -40
0.5
- (44.1) -60
Dec-20

Dec-22
Dec-21

Dec-23

Dec-24
Mar-21

Mar-24
Mar-20

Jun-20

Jun-21

Mar-22

Jun-24
Jun-22

Mar-23

Jun-23
Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22

Sep-23

Sep-24

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

HCL Technologies
IT Services India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
10

Acquired Zeenea in 2QFY25 for a consideration of US$26.2 mn as a tuck-in acquisition in products business
Acquisitions and investments announced by HCL Tech in the past 7-8 years
Date Target Country Business Description Consideration (mn) Sales (mn)
Products
1 Aug-24 Zeenea France Metadata management software providing data catalog and governance solutions $26.2 $2.6
2 May-22 Quest Informatics US Aftermarket ERP product provider $2.0 $1.8
3 Jun-20 IP deal US IP deal with Temenos for 7 years $70.0 NA
4 May-20 Cisco's SON technology US Products and services that automate planning, config, optimization etc of radio networks $49.5 NA
7 products from IBM portfolio in areas of security, marketing and commerce. HCLT had strategic IP
5 Dec-18 Enterprise software products of IBM US $1,775.0 $650.0
partnerships with IBM for 5 of the products.
6 Jun-18 IP deal US IP partnership with Cisco $177.0 NA
Hybrid data management, analytics and integration company. HCLT will own 80% of the company with
7 Apr-18 Actian Corporation US $330.0 $107.1
19.5% with a private equity player
8 Jan-18 3 IP partnerships US 3 IP partnerships- One with IBM, one with DXC and one with undisclosed global tech firm $300.0 $105.0
9 Oct-17 Strategic IP partnership with IBM (6) US Extended IP partnership to include Notes, Domino, Smart Cloud Notes, Verse and Sametime products $60.0 $30.0
10 Sep-17 Datawave UK Data management platform NA NA
11 Jul-17 Strategic IP partnership with IBM (5) US Extended IP partnership to cover marketing automation area $140.0 $30-35
12 Apr-17 Strategic IP partnership with IBM (4) US Extended partnership to cover Information management and Database management systems $80.0 ~$25
Extended partnership to cover Application security, B2B data transformation, testing automation and
13 Jan-17 Strategic IP partnership with IBM (3) US $155.0 $50.0
Mainframe management tools
14 Oct-16 Strategic IP partnership with IBM (2) US Extended IP partnership to cover API/web service enablement of mainframes $55.0 $15.0
15 Jun-16 Strategic IP partnership with IBM (1) US To invest in and grow workload automation and DevOps software of a global tech major $350.0 $100.0
Total spend on products US$3.6+ bn US$1.1+ bn

Date Target Country Business Description Consideration (mn) Sales (mn)


Services
1 May-24 Select assets of HPE telecom practice US Engineering services focused on telecom BSS stack, 1500 employees and 700 contractors largely onsite $225.0 ~$200
2 Jul-23 ASAP Germany E/E engineering services and software development provider for automotive industry $279.7 $171.9
3 May-22 Confinale Swiss Digital banking and wealth management consulting provider based on Avaloq $54.1 $17.9
4 Jan-22 Starschema Hungary Data engineering services provider $42.5 $13.6
5 Sep-20 DWS Australia IT services $118.4 $122.6
6 Sep-19 Sankalp Semiconductor India Advanced technology design services provider in semiconductor space $25.7 $22.0
Digital consulting firm specialising in customer experience strategy, business transformation and
7 Mar-19 Strong-Bridge Envision US $45.0 $45.0
change management.
8 Jun-18 H&D International Group Germany Integrated IT and engineering service provider in German automotive industry $35.0 $86.3
9 Apr-18 C3i Solutions (Telerx Marketing, Inc.) US Multi-channel customer engagement services for the life sciences and CPG vertials $65.0 $199.0
10 Apr-17 Urban Fulfillment Services LLC US Mortgage BPO provider wih 350 resources in US $30.0 $48.0
11 Oct-16 Butler America Aerospace US Provider of engineering and design services to US aerospace and defense customers $85.0 $85.4
12 Apr-16 Geometric (share swap deal) India PLM and engineering services $195.0 $135.0
13 Feb-16 Volvo IT AB Sweden External IT services arm of Volvo $134.9 $190.0
14 Jan-16 Point to Point (P2P) UK Workplace engineering services $10.0 $11.5
15 Nov-15 Arrangement with CSC US To operate and expand the existing Core Banking business of CSC $53.4 NA
16 Oct-15 Powerteam LLC US Professional services for Microsoft Dynamics CRM $41.4 $37.00
17 Oct-15 C2SiS India Engineering services firm $1.9 NA
18 Aug-15 Trygstad Technical Services Inc US Turnkey solutions for a large ISV $9.9 NA
Total spend on services US$1.4+ bn US$1.5+ bn
Total US$4.9+ bn US$2.5+ bn

Notes:
(1) Geometric acquisition is a share-swap deal
(2) HCLT has paid about US$330 mn for Strategic IP partnership and balance US$225 mn would be paid over CY2017.
(3) For other acquisitions, the consideration is agreed amount and it includes earnouts.

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

Sharp unseasonal increase in perpetual license revenue in 2QFY25, which normalized in 3QFY25
Revenue split across perpetual licenses, subscription and support and professional services in products business
Revenue (US$ mn) 1QFY23 2QFY23 3QFY23 4QFY23 1QFY24 2QFY24 3QFY24 4QFY24 1QFY25 2QFY25 3QFY25
Perpetual license upfrom & others 48 46 72 50 36 31 48 32 36 58 49
Subscription & support 269 241 304 270 277 267 350 289 282 267 329
Professional services 16 17 22 22 19 21 22 21 16 17 21
Total 334 304 398 342 333 318 419 342 335 342 400

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

HCL Technologies
IT Services India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
11

HCLT trades at among highest levels in the last several years


HCLT one-year P/E forward band chart

1 yr forward PE (X) 5Y mean -1 SD +1 SD -2 SD +2 SD


30.0
27.9
25.0
23.0
20.0
19.1

15.0 15.2

11.3
10.0

5.0

-
Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24

Source: Bloomberg consensus estimates

HCLT has closed the gap in valuations with regards to TCS and Infosys
HCLT premium/(discount) to TCS and Infosys, one-year P/E forward band chart

HCLT premium/(discount) to TCS HCLT premium/(discount) to Infosys


20.0

10.0

(10.0)

(20.0)

(30.0)

(40.0)

(50.0)

(60.0)
Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24

Source: Bloomberg consensus estimates

HCL Technologies
IT Services India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
12

HCLT’s quarterly metrics

Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24 Sep-24 Dec-24
Revenues (US$ mn) 3,082 3,244 3,235 3,200 3,225 3,415 3,430 3,364 3,445 3,533
Services revenues (US$ mn) 2,792 2,864 2,908 2,883 2,922 3,009 3,104 3,041 3,114 3,144
Revenues (Rs mn) 246,860 267,000 266,060 262,960 266,720 284,460 284,990 280,570 288,620 298,900
Exchange rate 80.1 82.3 82.3 82.2 82.7 83.3 83.1 83.4 83.8 84.6
Geographical mix- (Services)
US 64.8 63.5 63.8 64.5 64.5 64.5 65.2 66.0 65.1 65.5
Europe 27.5 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 29.0 28.9 27.9 28.4 28.2
Asia Pacific 7.7 7.4 7.3 6.8 7.0 6.4 5.9 6.1 6.5 6.3
Revenues by segments (new classification)
IT and Business Services 73.6 71.7 73.8 74.7 74.6 71.7 74.4 74.5 74.6 73.0
Engineering and R&D Services 17.0 16.6 16.1 15.4 16.0 16.4 16.1 15.9 15.8 16.0
Products & Platforms 9.8 12.3 10.6 10.4 9.9 12.3 10.0 9.9 9.9 11.3
Revenue by vertical- (Services)
Financial services 20.6 19.9 21.2 22.6 22.6 21.7 21.6 21.0 20.5 20.3
Manufacturing 19.2 19.7 19.0 19.9 19.3 20.1 20.4 19.4 19.5 19.1
Technology & Services 15.1 14.8 14.4 13.4 13.1 12.8 12.3 13.0 13.1 13.3
Retail & CPG 9.2 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.6 9.6 9.1 9.4 9.6 10.6
Telecom, media, publishing, entertainment 9.2 9.4 8.8 7.6 8.0 9.7 11.5 12.2 12.1 12.3
Life sciences 16.5 17.1 17.5 17.5 17.5 16.4 16.3 15.9 16.0 15.5
Energy-utilities-public sector 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.0 9.9 9.7 8.8 9.1 9.2 8.9
Number of million dollar clients (LTM)
100 Million dollar + 17 17 19 20 20 20 22 22 22 22
50 Million dollar + 42 45 46 48 49 49 46 48 52 53
20 Million dollar + 128 130 131 127 132 132 137 133 137 136
10 Million dollar + 220 221 229 237 243 250 254 256 251 248
5 Million dollar + 356 365 375 390 402 401 395 404 402 398
1 Million dollar + 890 937 939 947 971 958 951 951 952 952
Client contribution to revenue (after select IBM products' acquisition)
Top 5 clients 10.7 10.3 10.1 9.8 9.8 9.8 10.4 11.4 12.1 12.6
Top 10 clients 18.8 18.2 17.7 17.2 17.2 17.7 18.8 19.6 20.1 20.3
Top 20 clients 28.6 28.2 27.8 27.2 27.3 28.0 29.0 30.1 30.8 30.9
Deal win TCV (US$ mn)
Net new deal wins 2,384 2,347 2,074 1,565 3,969 1,927 2,290 1,960 2,228 2,095
Manpower details
Consolidated manpower 219,325 222,270 225,944 223,438 221,139 224,756 227,481 219,401 218,621 220,755
Total net addition 8,359 2,945 3,674 (2,506) (2,299) 3,617 2,725 (8,080) (780) 2,134
Technical 205,305 207,920 211,445 209,066 206,745 210,417 213,059 205,197 204,600 206,517
Sales & support 14,020 14,350 14,499 14,372 14,394 14,339 14,422 14,204 14,021 14,238
Freshers added 10,339 5,892 3,674 1,597 3,630 3,818 3,096 1,078 2,932 2,014
Attrition - IT services (%) (a) 23.8 21.7 19.5 16.3 14.2 12.8 12.4 12.8 12.9 13.2
Notes
(a) Attrition excludes involuntary and digital process operations
(b) U$6 mn products business in ERD segments reclassified under P&P segment in 1QFY22

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

HCL Technologies
IT Services India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
13

Key model assumptions, March fiscal year-ends, 2020-2027E


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025E 2026E 2027E
INR/USD rate 71.1 74.1 74.6 80.6 82.8 84.5 86.6 87.5
Revenues (US$ mn) 9,936 10,175 11,481 12,586 13,270 13,847 14,649 15,868
IT and business services 7,135 7,207 8,276 9,182 9,798 10,227 10,759 11,727
% growth 10.7 1.0 14.8 10.9 6.7 4.4 5.2 9.0
Engineering and R&D services 1,661 1,558 1,818 2,085 2,122 2,245 2,511 2,762
% growth 12.4 (6.2) 16.7 14.7 1.8 5.8 11.9 10.0
Products and platforms 1,140 1,410 1,387 1,319 1,350 1,376 1,378 1,378
% growth 60.3 23.7 (1.6) (4.9) 2.4 1.9 0.2 -
% growth (overall) 180.3 2.4 12.8 9.6 5.4 4.4 5.8 8.3
C/c revenue growth (%) 10.6 5.0 12.7 13.7 4.9 4.9 7.0 8.3
C/c revenue growth (organic %) - 2.3 12.2 13.4 3.9 4.4 5.9 8.3
EBITDA margin (%) 23.6 27.6 24.0 22.3 22.0 21.8 21.9 21.9
EBIT margin (%) 19.6 21.5 18.9 18.2 18.2 18.4 18.8 19.0

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Condensed consolidated US GAAP financials for HCL Technologies, March fiscal year-ends, 2020-27E (Rs mn)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025E 2026E 2027E
Profit model
Revenues 706,780 753,786 856,513 1,014,560 1,099,155 1,169,570 1,268,107 1,388,457
EBITDA 166,792 208,075 205,157 226,306 241,959 255,503 277,183 303,444
Depreciation (incl amortization of intangibles) (28,399) (46,153) (43,270) (41,596) (41,680) (40,767) (39,145) (39,853)
EBIT 138,393 161,921 161,888 184,710 200,279 214,736 238,037 263,591
Other income 1,798 4,149 7,460 10,079 9,397 17,765 14,173 16,545
Pretax profits 140,190 166,070 169,348 194,788 209,675 232,501 252,210 280,136
Tax (29,354) (36,197) (34,317) (46,497) (52,523) (59,172) (64,313) (71,435)
Minority interest (316) (237) (239) 25 (83) (84) (87) (88)
Profit after tax 110,521 129,636 134,792 148,316 157,070 173,244 187,810 208,614
Extraordinary items — (18,069) — — — — — —
Diluted earnings per share (Rs) 40.8 47.8 49.7 54.7 57.9 63.8 69.1 76.7
Dividend per share (Rs) 5.0 26.0 44.0 48.0 52.0 55.0 58.0 60.0
Balance sheet
Total equity 485,524 607,177 609,503 641,839 677,964 715,148 763,157 816,805
Deferred taxation liability 824 1,482 1,119 1,612 7,703 7,855 8,051 8,138
Total borrowings 47,869 39,560 39,241 22,088 23,192 23,649 24,239 24,500
Minority interest 5,348 1,630 895 (81) 83 169 260 350
Other non-current liabilities 41,296 48,079 41,479 42,241 57,567 58,701 60,165 60,813
Current liabilities 201,477 175,427 184,268 208,868 224,718 236,208 243,145 262,863
Total liabilities and equity 782,339 873,355 876,506 916,567 991,227 1,041,729 1,099,017 1,173,468
Cash 78,839 139,126 154,054 170,012 210,802 233,426 262,277 308,645
Other current assets 216,709 239,804 268,047 309,472 317,570 337,353 365,775 400,489
Goodwill and intangible assets 276,585 294,773 267,450 264,087 270,937 276,832 268,588 257,916
Tangible fixed assets 83,379 84,750 79,228 76,018 78,606 78,248 83,276 85,689
Investments 66,422 69,563 62,517 53,930 70,903 72,299 74,102 74,900
Other non-current assets 60,407 45,338 45,209 43,047 42,409 43,572 44,998 45,829
Total assets 782,339 873,355 876,506 916,567 991,227 1,041,729 1,099,017 1,173,468
Free cash flow
Operating cash flow, excl. working capital 114,907 199,555 161,515 182,765 226,830 191,180 193,555 217,987
Working capital changes (21,467) 26,003 (9,176) (6,288) 27,085 (5,111) (19,301) (14,022)
Capital expenditure (18,369) (17,557) (15,592) (14,430) (10,188) (19,830) (27,074) (27,807)
Acquisitions (65,450) (76,305) (4,103) (7,416) (20,459) (19,595—) — —
Other income 1,798 5,852 4,849 4,595 7,620 17,759 14,173 16,545
Free cash flow 11,419 137,548 137,493 159,226 230,889 164,403 161,352 192,703
Key assumption and ratios (%)
US$ revenue growth (b) 15.1 2.4 12.8 9.6 5.4 4.4 5.8 8.3
EBITDA margin 23.6 27.6 24.0 22.3 22.0 21.8 21.9 21.9
EBIT margin 19.6 21.5 18.9 18.2 18.2 18.4 18.8 19.0

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

HCL Technologies
IT Services India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
UPDATE

Pharmaceuticals
India
Sector View: Neutral NIFTY-50: 23,086 January 13, 2025

IPM pulse—volume uptick remains elusive Company data and valuation summary
IPM posted a rather subdued growth of 7.4% yoy in 3QFY25, driven by slower Fair Value P/E (X)
growth in acute. After a relatively strong sales growth of 10.7% yoy in Company Rating (Rs) 2026E 2027E
November 2024, December 2024 sales growth slipped to 6.5% yoy. In
Alivus Life Sciences BUY 1,200 21.1 18.6
CY2024, IPM sales grew 7.6% yoy, on a base of 9.7% yoy growth. We highlight
Aurobindo Pharma SELL 1,225 15.8 14.7
that volume traction in the end-market is still below normal, with pricing Biocon REDUCE 350 33.8 24.5
contributing to bulk of the growth. IPM growth has been modest at 8.2% yoy Blue Jet Healthcare ADD 550 34.7 27.7
in 9MFY25, lower compared to the 10-13% yoy organic domestic growth in Cipla BUY 1,725 22.4 22.6
Concord Biotech ADD 2,050 48.4 37.5
our estimates for FY2025E, thereby posing a slight downside risk. Within our
Divis Laboratories SELL 4,000 58.6 46.1
formulations coverage, Sun, Cipla, Lupin, JB and Emcure are preferred picks. Dr Reddy's Laboratories REDUCE 1,295 19.1 21.5
Emcure Pharmaceuticals BUY 1,680 27.1 22.5
JB, Ipca and Ajanta growth leaders; Alembic and Sanofi lag in 3QFY25 Gland Pharma REDUCE 1,625 26.8 21.9
JB Chemicals & Pharma BUY 2,325 32.1 27.8
IPM grew by just 6.5% yoy in Dec 2024, despite a low base of 5.4% yoy growth Laurus Labs SELL 370 59.7 45.4
in Dec 2023. Chronic therapies grew by 8% yoy and acute therapies by 5% yoy, Lupin ADD 2,385 25.4 26.5
Mankind Pharma ADD 2,855 36.6 30.2
during the month. Bulk of the IPM growth in Dec 2024 was driven by therapies
Sun Pharmaceuticals ADD 2,045 30.5 26.4
such as urology, cardiac, onco, respiratory and derma. In Dec 2024, revenues of Torrent Pharmaceuticals REDUCE 3,300 43.6 35.6
domestic companies grew by 6.2% yoy, compared to 8.2% yoy sales growth for Pharmaceuticals Neutral 29.5 26.7

Private Circulation Only. This document may only be distributed to QIBs (qualified institutional buyers) as defined under rule 144A of the Securities Act of 1933
MNC companies. Including unlisted companies, growth leaders in 3QFY25 were
Source: Bloomberg, Company data, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates
JB, Ipca, Ajanta, Sun, Abbott, Dr Reddy’s, Glenmark, Intas, FDC, Torrent and
Zydus, which posted 8-12% yoy sales growth. On the other hand, key Prices in this report are based on the market close of
January 13, 2025
underperformers in 3QFY25 were Alembic, Sanofi, Aristo, GSK, Micro Labs, Eris,
Macleods, Emcure and Mankind, which posted sales growth of (-2)-6% yoy.
Quick Numbers
Market share: Cipla, Glenmark and GSK top gainers; FDC and Torrent top losers
IPM growth of 7.6% yoy in MAT Dec 2024 (on a base of 9.7% yoy) was led by IPM grew 7.6% yoy in MAT Dec 2024
430 bps yoy contribution from higher pricing, and 250 bps yoy contribution from
new launches. Volume growth only contributed 80 bps to IPM growth in MAT Chronic therapies grew 8% yoy, while acute therapies
grew 5% yoy in Dec 2024
Dec 2024. Among the top 25 companies, Cipla, Glenmark, GSK, Alembic,
Mankind, Himalaya and Indoco have gained maximum share over the past six Domestic companies’ sales grew 6.2% yoy, compared
months. On the other hand, FDC, Torrent, Eris, Ipca, Emcure and USV have lost to 8.2% yoy growth for MNC companies in Dec 2024
maximum share in the past six months.

Risk of further acceleration in generics adoption not baked in


Factoring in the volume impact from the trade generics and Jan Aushadhi
channels, we estimate a 70-110 bps annual dent on branded IPM growth at least
until FY2028E. With Jan Aushadhi’s rapid expansion (14K+ stores now), there
is a risk of this hit on IPM swelling further. As seen earlier, the government is
keen on pushing generics. We note that current valuations imply the ongoing
steady decline in the share of branded generics will continue and do not factor
in any further growth deceleration in the next few years. If the share of branded
products slips faster, there is scope for derating. Yet, as highlighted in our
Related Research
earlier reports, a forced change might be ineffective unless the quality
conundrum is addressed. → Health Care: The fine run continues
→ IPM pulse: return to double digits
→ Cipla: Looking beyond the near-term issues

Full sector coverage on KINSITE

Alankar Garude, CFA Samitinjoy Basak Aniket Singh


15

IPM: Story in charts

IPM – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 7.6% yoy IPM – Dec-24 sales grew 6.5% yoy
Exhibit 1: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs bn, %) Exhibit 2: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs bn, %)

MAT sales (Rs bn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs bn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)

2,400 20 204 30
202 202
2,293 202
2,300 199 200 199
200 20
15
2,200 198
2,131
196 7.9
2,100 10
10 194 11.7 5.3 192
10.7
2,000 1,942 192
9.7 6.5
5.2 0
1,900 190
7.6
6.7 5
188
1,800 186 (10)

Aug-24

Dec-24
Jul-24

Nov-24
Sep-24

Oct-24
1,700 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

IPM – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth IPM – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 3: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 4: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)

12 8

7
10
2.5
6
8 3.0
5

6 4
7.6
9.7 3 4.3
4.6
4
2
2 1
2.2 0.8
0 0
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Pharmaceuticals
India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
16

Company-wise sales and market share – top-25 companies enjoy ~71% market share
Exhibit 5: Dec MAT year-ends, 2021-24 (Rs bn, %)
MAT sales (Rs bn) MAT sales yoy growth (%) Monthly sales yoy growth (%) Market share (%)
Rank Company MAT Dec-21 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 MAT Dec-24
IPM 1,820 1,942 2,131 2,293 6.7 9.7 7.6 11.7 7.9 5.3 5.2 10.7 6.5 100.0
1 Sun Pharma 135 150 164 180 11.3 9.8 9.7 14.0 9.8 7.6 10.2 13.1 8.3 7.9
2 Abbott 110 120 131 143 9.0 9.8 8.9 13.8 10.1 7.1 9.1 12.4 10.0 6.2
3 Cipla 102 106 117 125 3.7 10.1 6.8 7.5 7.1 5.7 5.6 6.3 7.2 5.4
4 Mankind 86 92 103 111 7.2 11.1 8.0 13.7 7.2 5.1 2.1 10.4 2.9 4.8
5 Alkem 70 78 86 90 11.1 10.2 4.5 9.4 6.2 2.3 1.4 11.2 5.3 3.9
6 Intas 58 66 75 83 14.5 13.5 11.2 18.7 11.6 10.3 9.2 10.8 7.3 3.6
7 Lupin 64 68 73 79 5.7 7.5 7.7 13.0 7.9 5.0 7.5 9.0 3.0 3.4
8 Torrent 59 66 72 79 12.2 9.9 8.4 15.0 8.3 7.2 9.4 9.5 5.7 3.4
9 Macleods 57 63 71 76 10.0 13.2 6.2 6.3 5.6 (1.5) (1.6) 8.2 5.1 3.3
10 Dr. Reddy's 58 60 65 72 2.6 8.6 9.8 12.5 8.3 7.9 8.0 14.9 8.1 3.1
11 Zydus 53 56 61 65 6.3 8.0 7.6 14.5 10.6 7.4 7.1 11.5 5.4 2.9
12 Aristo 53 56 63 65 4.3 13.9 2.5 8.8 8.1 (3.3) (7.7) 10.9 2.0 2.8
13 GSK 47 50 52 52 5.6 4.1 1.1 4.7 0.3 (2.8) (1.9) 3.9 1.9 2.3
14 Emcure 45 45 48 50 0.4 5.9 5.0 9.9 6.7 6.7 4.1 5.6 4.0 2.2
15 Glenmark 42 39 43 48 (6.3) 10.5 11.8 14.4 13.4 9.3 7.8 12.4 8.0 2.1
16 Ipca Labs 32 37 41 47 13.7 13.0 13.5 23.8 9.8 7.8 5.8 18.8 10.2 2.1
17 USV 35 38 41 44 8.5 9.3 6.4 8.9 7.3 4.7 5.3 6.2 4.2 1.9
18 Micro Labs 31 33 34 35 6.6 4.7 3.1 9.5 3.2 2.9 2.2 4.1 1.9 1.5
19 Pfizer 34 33 33 34 (3.4) 1.0 2.1 2.4 6.1 1.9 3.3 7.2 6.5 1.5
20 Alembic 27 29 32 32 8.9 8.6 0.8 6.5 3.2 (5.1) (5.0) 1.6 (1.4) 1.4
21 Eris 25 26 29 30 5.4 9.0 5.9 8.2 2.8 1.8 4.3 6.3 (0.4) 1.3
22 JB 18 21 24 27 18.0 14.1 11.5 11.8 13.7 15.5 11.8 12.5 11.0 1.2
23 FDC 18 20 22 25 11.7 11.7 10.4 13.9 7.9 12.4 4.3 12.2 10.9 1.1
24 Sanofi 21 22 22 23 5.2 0.1 5.0 10.5 (1.0) 0.5 (3.3) 1.7 1.3 1.0
25 Himalaya 16 16 17 18 3.3 5.5 6.6 12.5 2.2 5.0 2.9 11.3 4.2 0.8
26 Ajanta 13 14 16 18 14.8 11.6 10.8 16.3 9.5 10.9 9.3 16.9 7.0 0.8
32 Indoco 12 13 13 13 4.3 2.7 1.5 9.5 5.2 0.2 3.4 11.0 2.7 0.6

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Pharmaceuticals
India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
17

Sun Pharma

Sun Pharma – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 9.7% yoy Sun Pharma – Dec-24 sales grew 8.3% yoy
Exhibit 6: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 7: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)

MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)
210,000 20 18,000 30
15,885 15,663 15,498 15,763 15,997
180,354 16,000 15,230
180,000 164,457
149,829 14,000 20
15
150,000 12,000
10,000
120,000 14.0 10
13.1
11.3 10 8,000
9.8 10.2
90,000 6,000 7.6 8.3
9.8 9.7
4,000 0
60,000
5
2,000
30,000
0 (10)

Aug-24

Oct-24

Dec-24
Jul-24

Nov-24
Sep-24
0 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Sun Pharma – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Sun Pharma – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 8: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 9: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)

12 12

10 10
1.9 1.4
8 8

2.7
6 6 4.8
9.8 9.7
4 4

5.1
2 2
3.5

0 0
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Sun Pharma – key therapeutic drivers


Exhibit 10: Dec MAT year-ends, 2021-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn) MAT sales yoy growth (%)
Rank Therapies MAT Dec-21 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
1 Neuro/CNS 23,301 25,804 28,545 31,351 10.7 10.6 9.8
2 Cardiac 22,498 25,114 27,949 30,476 11.6 11.3 9.0
3 Gastro-intestinal 16,602 19,217 21,456 23,810 15.7 11.7 11.0
4 Anti-infectives 11,689 13,489 14,649 15,111 15.4 8.6 3.2
5 Pain/analgesics 10,021 11,477 12,438 14,295 14.5 8.4 14.9
6 Anti-diabetic 11,338 11,258 11,978 13,942 (0.7) 6.4 16.4
7 Respiratory 6,662 7,770 8,862 9,103 16.6 14.1 2.7
8 Derma 6,763 7,049 7,192 7,642 4.2 2.0 6.3
9 VMN 6,215 6,796 6,923 7,486 9.3 1.9 8.1
10 Gynaec 5,473 6,254 6,586 7,067 14.3 5.3 7.3

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Pharmaceuticals
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18

Abbott

Abbott – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 8.9% yoy Abbott – Dec-24 sales grew 10.0% yoy
Exhibit 11: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 12: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)

MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)
143,029 14,000 30
145,000 10 12,399 12,576 12,563 12,594 12,361 12,163
9.8
140,000 9.8 12,000
20
135,000 9.6 10,000
131,376
130,000 9.4 8,000
13.8 10
6,000 12.4
125,000 9.2 10.1 10.0
119,695 9.1
4,000 7.1
120,000 9 0
9.0
115,000 8.8 2,000
8.9
110,000 8.6 0 (10)

Jul-24

Aug-24

Dec-24
Nov-24
Sep-24

Oct-24
105,000 8.4
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Abbott – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Abbott – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 13: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 14: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)

12 10
9
10 1.3
8
1.2
7
8
6
6 5
5.8 5.8 8.9
9.8 4
4
3
2
2
2.8 1 1.7
0 0
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Abbott – key therapeutic drivers


Exhibit 15: Dec MAT year-ends, 2021-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn) MAT sales yoy growth (%)
Rank Therapies MAT Dec-21 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
1 Anti-diabetic 26,293 28,460 31,579 33,771 8.2 11.0 6.9
2 Gastro-intestinal 15,627 17,643 19,145 21,738 12.9 8.5 13.5
3 VMN 11,093 10,469 11,639 12,813 (5.6) 11.2 10.1
4 Anti-infectives 9,000 10,581 11,176 11,467 17.6 5.6 2.6
5 Cardiac 7,064 7,632 8,507 9,851 8.0 11.5 15.8
6 Hormones 6,353 7,553 8,800 9,604 18.9 16.5 9.1
7 Neuro/CNS 8,672 9,175 9,593 9,455 5.8 4.6 (1.4)
8 Hepatoprotectives 3,881 4,528 5,441 6,463 16.7 20.1 18.8
9 Gynaec 4,746 5,231 5,567 5,528 10.2 6.4 (0.7)
10 Pain/analgesics 3,696 3,981 4,645 5,497 7.7 16.7 18.3

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Pharmaceuticals
India Research

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19

Cipla

Cipla – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 6.8% yoy Cipla – Dec-24 sales grew 7.2% yoy
Exhibit 16: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 17: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)

MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)

140,000 25 12,000 7.1 11,814 8


124,812
116,889 11,524
7
120,000 11,500 7.5 5.7
106,166 20 5.6 7.2
6
100,000 11,000 6.3
10,736 10,731 5
80,000 15 10,450
10,500 4
10.1 10,051
60,000 3
10 10,000
6.8
2
40,000 9,500
3.7 1
5
20,000
9,000 0

Aug-24

Oct-24
Jul-24

Dec-24
Nov-24
Sep-24
0 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Cipla – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Cipla – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 18: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 19: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)

12 8

7
10
1.6 6 1.5
8
5
4.1
6 4
10.1 6.8
3 4.8
4
2
2 4.4
1
0.5
0 0
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Cipla – key therapeutic drivers


Exhibit 20: Dec MAT year-ends, 2021-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn) MAT sales yoy growth (%)
Rank Therapies MAT Dec-21 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
1 Respiratory 34,372 37,545 42,791 45,797 9.2 14.0 7.0
2 Anti-infectives 14,913 15,210 16,350 17,213 2.0 7.5 5.3
3 Cardiac 10,803 11,674 13,000 14,510 8.1 11.4 11.6
4 Anti-diabetic 6,486 6,491 6,421 6,865 0.1 (1.1) 6.9
5 Gastro-intestinal 5,604 6,308 6,292 6,823 12.6 (0.3) 8.4
6 Urology 4,653 4,781 5,318 6,165 2.7 11.2 15.9
7 Neuro/CNS 5,247 5,458 5,725 5,722 4.0 4.9 (0.0)
8 Pain/analgesics 3,192 3,798 4,266 5,121 19.0 12.3 20.1
9 Derma 3,320 3,307 3,735 4,237 (0.4) 12.9 13.4
10 Antiviral 5,665 3,191 3,329 3,392 (43.7) 4.3 1.9

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Pharmaceuticals
India Research

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20

Mankind

Mankind – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 8.0% yoy Mankind – Dec-24 sales grew 2.9% yoy
Exhibit 21: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 22: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)

MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)

120,000 20 12,000 16
110,773
102,534 9,796 9,915 9,616 14
10,000 9,466 9,469 9,195
100,000 92,264
13.7 12
15 10.4
8,000
80,000 10
6,000 8
60,000 10
11.1 6
4,000 7.2
40,000 4
8.0 5.1
7.2 5 2,000
2
20,000 2.1 2.9
0 0

Aug-24

Dec-24
Nov-24
Jul-24

Sep-24

Oct-24
0 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Mankind – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Mankind – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 23: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 24: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)

12 9

8
10
3.4 7
2.5
8 6

5
6
11.1 4 8.0
6.1
4 3 4.8

2
2
1
1.6
0.7
0 0
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Mankind – key therapeutic drivers


Exhibit 25: Dec MAT year-ends, 2021-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn) MAT sales yoy growth (%)
Rank Therapies MAT Dec-21 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
1 Cardiac 10,202 11,422 13,387 15,817 12.0 17.2 18.1
2 Anti-infectives 11,627 12,328 14,725 15,344 6.0 19.4 4.2
3 Gynaec 8,033 9,951 10,921 11,825 23.9 9.7 8.3
4 Gastro-intestinal 8,872 9,383 10,170 11,319 5.8 8.4 11.3
5 VMN 8,734 8,294 8,547 9,066 (5.0) 3.0 6.1
6 Anti-diabetic 6,480 6,929 7,947 9,027 6.9 14.7 13.6
7 Respiratory 7,430 8,100 8,649 8,323 9.0 6.8 (3.8)
8 Derma 6,039 5,415 5,456 5,880 (10.3) 0.8 7.8
9 Urology 3,905 4,820 5,473 5,830 23.4 13.6 6.5
10 Pain/analgesics 4,237 4,323 4,431 4,814 2.0 2.5 8.6

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Pharmaceuticals
India Research

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21

Alkem

Alkem – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 4.5% yoy Alkem – Dec-24 sales grew 5.3% yoy
Exhibit 26: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 27: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)

MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)

95,000 11.1 12 9,000 8,336 8,538 12


7,950 8,178 7,927
89,931 8,000 7,394
90,000 86,044 9.4 10
10 7,000
10.2 11.2
85,000 6,000 8
8
78,097 5,000
80,000 6
6 4,000
6.2
75,000 3,000 5.3 4
4 2,000
70,000 4.5 2
1,000 2.3
2 1.4
65,000 0 0

Aug-24

Dec-24
Nov-24
Jul-24

Sep-24

Oct-24
60,000 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Alkem – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Alkem – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 28: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 29: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)

12 5
5
4
9
4.0 4 2.1
3
6 3
4.5
10.2 2
4.2
2
3 2.2
1

1.9 1
0 0.3
0
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Alkem – key therapeutic drivers


Exhibit 30: Dec MAT year-ends, 2021-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn) MAT sales yoy growth (%)
Rank Therapies MAT Dec-21 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
1 Anti-infectives 27,546 28,969 31,315 30,781 5.2 8.1 (1.7)
2 Gastro-intestinal 12,261 14,697 16,454 17,852 19.9 12.0 8.5
3 VMN 7,990 8,463 9,059 10,197 5.9 7.0 12.6
4 Pain/analgesics 7,351 8,493 9,323 9,618 15.5 9.8 3.2
5 Anti-diabetic 2,464 3,059 3,850 4,305 24.1 25.9 11.8
6 Neuro/CNS 2,611 2,874 3,274 3,574 10.1 13.9 9.1
7 Gynaec 2,433 3,110 3,382 3,516 27.8 8.7 3.9
8 Respiratory 2,172 2,556 2,731 2,820 17.6 6.9 3.3
9 Derma 2,014 2,137 2,444 2,765 6.1 14.4 13.1
10 Cardiac 1,897 1,868 2,015 2,134 (1.5) 7.8 5.9

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Pharmaceuticals
India Research

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22

Lupin

Lupin – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 7.7% yoy Lupin – Dec-24 sales grew 3.0% yoy
Exhibit 31: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 32: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)

MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)

80,000 78,596 20 8,000 30


6,976 6,748 6,742
6,680 6,686 6,567
78,000 7,000

76,000 6,000 20
15
74,000 72,951 5,000

72,000 4,000 10
13.0
10 3,000
70,000 7.9 9.0
7.5
67,852 2,000 5.0 0
68,000 3.0
7.5 7.7 1,000
66,000 5
5.7
0 (10)
64,000

Dec-24
Aug-24
Jul-24

Oct-24

Nov-24
Sep-24
62,000 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Lupin – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Lupin – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 33: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 34: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)

8 9

7 8
7
6 3.1 2.8
6
5 5
4 4 7.7
7.5
3 3
5.4
3.5
2
2
1
1 0
1.0 (0.4)
0 (1)
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Lupin – key therapeutic drivers


Exhibit 35: Dec MAT year-ends, 2021-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn) MAT sales yoy growth (%)
Rank Therapies MAT Dec-21 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
1 Cardiac 13,741 14,585 15,923 18,033 6.1 9.2 13.2
2 Anti-diabetic 14,478 14,846 14,750 16,154 2.5 (0.7) 9.5
3 Respiratory 8,969 9,564 10,750 11,339 6.6 12.4 5.5
4 Gastro-intestinal 5,091 5,762 6,383 6,968 13.2 10.8 9.2
5 Anti-infectives 4,968 4,611 5,268 5,449 (7.2) 14.2 3.4
6 Gynaec 2,870 3,608 4,101 4,016 25.7 13.7 (2.1)
7 VMN 3,653 3,533 3,593 3,815 (3.3) 1.7 6.2
8 Neuro/CNS 3,047 3,282 3,508 3,729 7.7 6.9 6.3
9 Pain/analgesics 2,560 2,841 2,965 2,978 11.0 4.4 0.5
10 Anti-TB 1,882 2,168 2,252 2,656 15.2 3.9 17.9

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Pharmaceuticals
India Research

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23

Intas

Intas – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 11.2% yoy Intas – Dec-24 sales grew 7.3% yoy
Exhibit 36: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 37: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)

MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)

100,000 14.5 16 8,000 20


13.5
83,283 14 18
80,000 74,882 18.7
7,476 16
12 7,348
65,983 7,235 7,251 14
10 7,075 7,077 12
60,000 11.2
11.6 10
8 10.8
10.3 8
40,000 9.2
6 6
7.3
4
4
20,000 2
2 6,000 0

Aug-24

Dec-24
Nov-24
Jul-24

Sep-24

Oct-24
0 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Intas – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Intas – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 38: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 39: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)

15 12

10
12 3.4
3.9
8
9
3.8 6 3.5
13.5 11.2
6
4

3 5.8 4.3
2

0 0
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Intas – key therapeutic drivers


Exhibit 40: Dec MAT year-ends, 2021-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn) MAT sales yoy growth (%)
Rank Therapies MAT Dec-21 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
1 Neuro/CNS 17,178 19,818 22,362 25,099 15.4 12.8 12.2
2 Cardiac 7,183 7,924 8,629 9,229 10.3 8.9 6.9
3 Anti-diabetic 5,387 6,298 7,021 7,920 16.9 11.5 12.8
4 Pain/analgesics 4,211 5,120 5,685 6,341 21.6 11.0 11.6
5 Antineoplast/immunomodulator 2,821 3,659 4,351 5,269 29.7 18.9 21.1
6 Derma 3,157 3,294 3,660 4,413 4.3 11.1 20.6
7 Gynaec 2,842 3,632 4,313 4,411 27.8 18.7 2.3
8 Gastro-intestinal 3,333 3,700 4,026 4,226 11.0 8.8 5.0
9 Urology 2,392 2,806 3,249 3,684 17.3 15.8 13.4
10 VMN 2,434 2,686 3,063 3,446 10.4 14.0 12.5

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Pharmaceuticals
India Research

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24

Torrent

Torrent – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 8.4% yoy Torrent – Dec-24 sales grew 5.7% yoy
Exhibit 41: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 42: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)

MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)
78,531 8,000 30
80,000 20 7,069
72,415 6,760 6,628 6,808 6,703 6,546
7,000
65,915
6,000 20
60,000 15
5,000
9.5
4,000 15.0 10
5.7
40,000 12.2 10 9.4
3,000 8.3 7.2
9.9
2,000 0
8.4
20,000 5 1,000
0 (10)

Aug-24
Jul-24

Dec-24
Nov-24
Sep-24

Oct-24
0 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Torrent – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Torrent – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 43: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 44: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)

12 9
8
10 2.0
7

8 4.0 6
5
6 8.4
4
9.9 7.1
3
4
7.3
2
2 1
0
0 (0.6)
(1)
(1.4)
(2) (2)
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Torrent – key therapeutic drivers


Exhibit 45: Dec MAT year-ends, 2021-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn) MAT sales yoy growth (%)
Rank Therapies MAT Dec-21 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
1 Cardiac 16,734 17,763 19,211 21,357 6.2 8.2 11.2
2 Gastro-intestinal 10,070 11,497 12,681 13,883 14.2 10.3 9.5
3 Neuro/CNS 8,157 9,490 10,576 11,528 16.3 11.4 9.0
4 VMN 5,708 6,675 7,305 7,763 16.9 9.4 6.3
5 Anti-diabetic 4,839 5,360 6,228 7,109 10.8 16.2 14.1
6 Pain/analgesics 4,842 5,562 6,104 6,388 14.9 9.7 4.7
7 Derma 3,687 4,264 4,894 5,103 15.7 14.8 4.3
8 Anti-infectives 1,989 1,795 1,856 1,959 (9.8) 3.4 5.5
9 Gynaec 1,200 1,637 1,648 1,847 36.4 0.7 12.1
10 Antineoplast/immunomodulator 257 499 649 440 94.4 30.2 (32.2)

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Pharmaceuticals
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25

Macleods

Macleods – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 6.2% yoy Macleods– Dec-24 sales grew 5.1% yoy
Exhibit 46: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 47: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)

MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)

80,000 71,339 75,728 14 8,000 10


6,800 6,845 6,736 6,623
7,000 6,321 6,281 8
70,000 13.2 12
63,048 6,000 8.2
60,000 6
10 6.3
10.0 5,000
50,000 5.6 5.1 4
8 4,000
40,000 2
3,000
6
30,000 0
6.2 2,000
4
20,000 1,000 (2)
(1.5) (1.6)
10,000 2 0 (4)

Aug-24
Jul-24

Dec-24
Nov-24
Sep-24

Oct-24
0 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Macleods – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Macleods – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 48: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 49: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)

14 7

12 2.1 6
1.4
10 5

8 4
7.8
13.2
6 3 6.2
4.7
4 2

2 1
3.2

0 0 0.1
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Macleods – key therapeutic drivers


Exhibit 50: Dec MAT year-ends, 2021-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn) MAT sales yoy growth (%)
Rank Therapies MAT Dec-21 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
1 Anti-infectives 14,990 17,332 21,012 22,529 15.6 21.2 7.2
2 Cardiac 7,639 7,870 8,673 9,568 3.0 10.2 10.3
3 Respiratory 4,847 5,488 6,706 6,843 13.2 22.2 2.0
4 Hormones 4,818 5,415 6,175 6,569 12.4 14.0 6.4
5 Pain/analgesics 4,619 5,350 5,779 6,094 15.8 8.0 5.4
6 Anti-diabetic 3,319 3,782 4,181 4,614 13.9 10.6 10.4
7 Gastro-intestinal 3,359 3,876 4,156 4,357 15.4 7.2 4.8
8 Derma 4,748 4,463 4,286 4,081 (6.0) (4.0) (4.8)
9 VMN 2,409 2,637 2,663 2,714 9.4 1.0 1.9
10 Gynaec 1,516 1,811 2,089 2,125 19.4 15.4 1.7

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Pharmaceuticals
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26

Aristo

Aristo – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 2.5% yoy Aristo – Dec-24 sales grew 2.0% yoy
Exhibit 51: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 52: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)

MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)

66,000 64,892 16 7,000 6,284 15


6,197
5,778 5,889
64,000 63,322 14 6,000 5,444
5,063 10
62,000 13.9 12 5,000
8.8 10.9
8.1 5
60,000 10 4,000

58,000 8 3,000 0
2.0
55,575
56,000 6 2,000
(5)
54,000 4 1,000 (3.3)
4.3 (7.7)
52,000 2 0 (10)
2.5

Aug-24
Jul-24

Dec-24
Nov-24
Sep-24

Oct-24
50,000 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Aristo – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Aristo – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 53: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 54: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)

16 6

14
1.5 4
12
5.1
2
10 1.6
2.5
6.9
8 0
13.9
6
(2) (4.2)
4
5.5 (4)
2

0 (6)
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Aristo – key therapeutic drivers


Exhibit 55: Dec MAT year-ends, 2021-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn) MAT sales yoy growth (%)
Rank Therapies MAT Dec-21 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
1 Anti-infectives 25,003 24,674 28,888 28,837 (1.3) 17.1 (0.2)
2 Gastro-intestinal 9,263 10,091 11,265 11,668 8.9 11.6 3.6
3 Cardiac 4,833 5,234 5,819 6,361 8.3 11.2 9.3
4 Respiratory 2,251 2,550 2,964 2,893 13.3 16.2 (2.4)
5 Pain/analgesics 2,398 2,445 2,564 2,608 1.9 4.9 1.7
6 Gynaec 1,762 2,249 2,626 2,495 27.6 16.8 (5.0)
7 Anti-diabetic 1,901 2,017 2,251 2,464 6.1 11.6 9.5
8 VMN 2,159 2,132 2,237 2,352 (1.3) 4.9 5.2
9 Neuro/CNS 1,379 1,603 1,780 1,952 16.3 11.0 9.7
10 Urology 763 949 1,126 1,330 24.4 18.6 18.1

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Pharmaceuticals
India Research

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27

Dr. Reddy’s

Dr. Reddy’s – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 9.8% yoy Dr. Reddy’s – Dec-24 sales grew 8.1% yoy
Exhibit 56: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 57: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)

Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)


MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)

80,000 25 6,450 6,392 20


71,516 6,400 18
70,000 65,127 6,350 6,329
59,966 14.9 16
20 6,300
60,000 6,230 14
6,250 6,205 12
50,000 15 6,200 12.5 10
6,150 8.0 6,101
40,000 9.8 8
8.6 6,100 6,075 8.1
30,000 10 8.3 7.9 6
6,050
6,000 4
20,000
2.6 5 5,950 2
10,000 5,900 0

Aug-24

Dec-24
Nov-24
Jul-24

Sep-24

Oct-24
0 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Dr. Reddy’s – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Dr. Reddy’s – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 58: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 59: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)

10 12

9
10
8 1.2
7
8 3.8
6
5 4.9 6
8.6
4 9.8
4 3.7
3
2
2.5 2
1 2.3
0 0
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Dr. Reddy’s – key therapeutic drivers


Exhibit 60: Dec MAT year-ends, 2021-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn) MAT sales yoy growth (%)
Rank Therapies MAT Dec-21 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
1 Gastro-intestinal 9,124 9,595 10,607 11,566 5.2 10.5 9.0
2 Respiratory 8,345 8,234 9,290 9,861 (1.3) 12.8 6.1
3 Pain/analgesics 6,186 6,408 6,859 7,587 3.6 7.0 10.6
4 Cardiac 6,669 7,358 6,660 6,797 10.3 (9.5) 2.1
5 Derma 3,609 4,058 4,622 5,539 12.4 13.9 19.8
6 Vaccines 3,718 3,394 4,485 5,396 (8.7) 32.1 20.3
7 Anti-diabetic 3,066 3,304 3,635 4,008 7.8 10.0 10.3
8 VMN 3,441 3,493 3,562 3,840 1.5 2.0 7.8
9 Stomatologicals 1,933 2,245 2,908 3,385 16.2 29.5 16.4
10 Anti-infectives 2,839 2,567 2,987 3,270 (9.6) 16.3 9.5

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Pharmaceuticals
India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
28

Zydus

Zydus – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 7.6% yoy Zydus – Dec-24 sales grew 5.4% yoy
Exhibit 61: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 62: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)

MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)

70,000 65,497 20 7,000 30


60,856 5,714 5,777 5,822 5,624 5,690
56,325 6,000 5,388
60,000
20
15 5,000
50,000
4,000
40,000 14.5 10
10 3,000 10.6 11.5
30,000 7.4 7.1
2,000 5.4 0
20,000 8.0 7.6
5 1,000
6.3
10,000 0 (10)

Aug-24
Jul-24

Dec-24
Nov-24
Sep-24

Oct-24
0 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Zydus – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Zydus – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 63: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 64: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)

9 9

8 8

7 7
2.8 2.1
6 6

5 5

4 8.0 4 3.1 7.6


3 4.7 3

2 2

1 1 2.5

0.5
0 0
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Zydus – key therapeutic drivers


Exhibit 65: Dec MAT year-ends, 2021-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn) MAT sales yoy growth (%)
Rank Therapies MAT Dec-21 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
1 Cardiac 7,065 7,698 8,141 9,361 9.0 5.8 15.0
2 Respiratory 7,165 7,762 8,760 9,038 8.3 12.9 3.2
3 Anti-infectives 7,121 7,007 7,676 8,501 (1.6) 9.5 10.8
4 Gastro-intestinal 5,569 6,175 6,146 6,486 10.9 (0.5) 5.5
5 Pain/analgesics 3,903 4,348 4,831 5,034 11.4 11.1 4.2
6 Antineoplast/immunomodulator 2,300 2,949 4,003 5,012 28.2 35.7 25.2
7 Gynaec 3,577 4,345 4,400 4,479 21.5 1.3 1.8
8 Derma 3,641 3,787 3,836 4,069 4.0 1.3 6.1
9 VMN 2,575 2,399 2,383 2,340 (6.8) (0.7) (1.8)
10 Hormones 2,127 2,091 2,179 2,177 (1.7) 4.2 (0.1)

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Pharmaceuticals
India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
29

GSK

GSK – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 1.1% yoy GSK – Dec-24 sales grew 1.9% yoy
Exhibit 66: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 67: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)

MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)
60,000 15 5,000 30
51,718 52,300
49,678 4,572
50,000 4,517 4,531 4,545 4,491
12 20
4,327
40,000
9
4,000 4.7 10
30,000 3.9
5.6 1.9
6 (1.9)
20,000 4.1 (2.8) 0
0.3
3
10,000 1.1
3,000 (10)

Aug-24

Dec-24
Nov-24
Jul-24

Sep-24

Oct-24
0 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

GSK – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth GSK – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 68: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 69: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)

5 2.5

4 2.0
0.4
4
1.5
3
1.0 1.9 0.5
3 2.5
0.5 1.1
2 4.1
0.0
2
(0.5)
1 (1.3)
1 1.1 (1.0)

0 (1.5)
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

GSK – key therapeutic drivers


Exhibit 70: Dec MAT year-ends, 2021-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn) MAT sales yoy growth (%)
Rank Therapies MAT Dec-21 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
1 Derma 12,373 13,934 14,550 15,355 12.6 4.4 5.5
2 Anti-infectives 10,277 12,231 12,448 12,522 19.0 1.8 0.6
3 Vaccines 6,940 5,699 6,027 6,632 (17.9) 5.8 10.0
4 Pain/analgesics 6,291 6,073 6,334 5,682 (3.5) 4.3 (10.3)
5 Hormones 3,840 3,977 4,301 4,019 3.6 8.1 (6.6)
6 VMN 2,569 2,869 3,074 3,328 11.7 7.1 8.3
7 Respiratory 2,230 2,583 2,551 2,396 15.8 (1.2) (6.1)
8 Anti-parasitic 724 739 784 657 2.1 6.1 (16.2)
9 Stomatologicals 418 380 386 528 (9.3) 1.6 36.9
10 Gastro-intestinal 560 345 301 370 (38.4) (12.7) 22.8

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Pharmaceuticals
India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
30

Emcure

Emcure – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 5.0% yoy Emcure – Dec-24 sales grew 4.0% yoy
Exhibit 71: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 72: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)

MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)
51,000 50,268 7 5,000 4,498 12
4,420 4,417 4,426
5.9 4,166 4,089
50,000
6 10
4,000
49,000 9.9
47,885 5 6.7 8
48,000 3,000
5.0
47,000 4 6
6.7
46,000 2,000
45,225 3 5.6 4
45,000 4.1 4.0
2 1,000 2
44,000
0.4 1
43,000 0 0

Aug-24
Jul-24

Dec-24
Nov-24
Sep-24

Oct-24
42,000 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Emcure – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Emcure – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 73: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 74: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)

7 6
6
5
5
3.2 4
4
2.6
3 5.9
5.2 3
2 5.0
2
1
3.0
0 1
(1)
(2.5)
0
(2)
(0.7)
(3) (1)
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Emcure – key therapeutic drivers


Exhibit 75: Dec MAT year-ends, 2021-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn) MAT sales yoy growth (%)
Rank Therapies MAT Dec-21 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
1 Cardiac 11,819 10,169 10,221 10,384 (14.0) 0.5 1.6
2 Gynaec 7,318 9,082 9,421 9,271 24.1 3.7 (1.6)
3 Anti-infectives 5,737 5,255 5,752 6,350 (8.4) 9.5 10.4
4 Pain/analgesics 2,427 2,981 3,280 3,553 22.8 10.0 8.3
5 VMN 3,559 3,194 3,319 3,372 (10.3) 3.9 1.6
6 Blood related 2,276 2,612 2,740 2,925 14.8 4.9 6.7
7 Antineoplast/immunomodulator 2,496 2,006 2,101 2,717 (19.6) 4.7 29.3
8 Respiratory 2,164 2,535 2,691 2,574 17.1 6.1 (4.3)
9 Antiviral 1,556 1,730 2,072 2,433 11.2 19.7 17.4
10 Gastro-intestinal 1,731 1,776 1,822 1,862 2.6 2.5 2.2

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Pharmaceuticals
India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
31

Glenmark

Glenmark – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 11.8% yoy Glenmark – Dec-24 sales grew 8.0% yoy
Exhibit 76: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 77: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)

MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)

48,454 5,000 20
50,000 40 4,302 4,313
43,358 4,500 4,161 4,236 4,274 18
3,979
39,252 4,000 16
13.4
40,000 30 3,500 14
3,000 14.4 12
30,000 20 2,500 12.4 10
10.5 11.8
2,000 8
9.3
20,000 10 1,500 7.8 8.0 6
1,000 4
10,000 0 500 2
(6.3)
0 0

Aug-24
Jul-24

Dec-24
Nov-24
Sep-24

Oct-24
0 (10)
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Glenmark – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Glenmark – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 78: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 79: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)

12 14

10 12
2.4 2.1
10
8

3.0 8
6 5.8
10.5 11.8
6
4
4
5.0
2 2 3.8

0 0
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Glenmark – key therapeutic drivers


Exhibit 80: Dec MAT year-ends, 2021-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn) MAT sales yoy growth (%)
Rank Therapies MAT Dec-21 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
1 Cardiac 9,397 11,380 13,463 16,218 21.1 18.3 20.5
2 Derma 9,236 9,716 10,632 12,363 5.2 9.4 16.3
3 Respiratory 8,087 8,575 10,206 10,255 6.0 19.0 0.5
4 Anti-infectives 3,973 3,658 3,964 4,397 (7.9) 8.4 10.9
5 Anti-diabetic 2,935 3,091 2,641 2,553 5.3 (14.6) (3.3)
6 Stomatologicals 499 597 623 674 19.5 4.4 8.3
7 Opthal/otologicals 414 437 463 514 5.5 6.0 10.9
8 Gynaec 391 431 462 512 10.2 7.1 10.7
9 Antineoplast/immunomodulator 197 641 469 508 225.7 (26.8) 8.2
10 Gastro-intestinal 148 191 212 219 29.1 11.2 3.1

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Pharmaceuticals
India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
32

USV

USV – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 6.4% yoy USV – Dec-24 sales grew 4.2% yoy
Exhibit 81: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 82: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)

MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)

50,000 14 3,850 3,806 14


43,679 3,800
45,000 41,040 12
12
40,000 37,555 3,750 3,722 3,729
10
35,000 10 3,700 3,670
8
30,000 8 3,650 8.9
9.3 3,616
25,000 8.5 3,599 6
7.3 6.2
3,600
20,000 6
6.4 4.7 5.3 4
3,550
15,000 4 4.2
3,500 2
10,000
2 3,450 0
5,000

Aug-24
Jul-24

Dec-24
Nov-24
Sep-24

Oct-24
0 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

USV – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth USV – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 83: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 84: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)

10 7
9
6
2.0
8
2.2
7 5

6
4
5
9.3 6.4
6.2 3
4
3.6
3 2
2
1
1
1.1 0.6
0 0
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

USV – key therapeutic drivers


Exhibit 85: Dec MAT year-ends, 2021-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn) MAT sales yoy growth (%)
Rank Therapies MAT Dec-21 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
1 Anti-diabetic 16,910 18,542 19,926 20,684 9.7 7.5 3.8
2 Cardiac 12,199 13,731 15,706 17,534 12.6 14.4 11.6
3 VMN 1,996 1,977 2,076 2,094 (1.0) 5.0 0.9
4 Derma 1,666 1,588 1,513 1,646 (4.7) (4.7) 8.8
5 Gastro-intestinal 686 744 830 856 8.4 11.6 3.1
6 Anti-infectives 661 499 547 534 (24.5) 9.8 (2.3)
7 Neuro/CNS 211 173 154 136 (18.0) (11.2) (11.4)
8 Gynaec 196 194 175 90 (1.1) (9.8) (48.5)
9 Respiratory 29 36 43 39 22.7 21.5 (9.3)
10 Blood related 39 39 37 34 0.6 (5.4) (6.4)

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Pharmaceuticals
India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
33

Ipca Labs

Ipca Labs – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 13.5% yoy Ipca Labs – Dec-24 sales grew 10.2% yoy
Exhibit 86: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 87: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)

MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)
50,000 13.7 47,071 14 4,500 23.8 25
4,369
41,460 4,400 4,335
14 18.8 20
40,000 36,678 4,300 4,220
13.5 4,200 4,118 4,140
13 15
30,000 4,100
9.8 10.2
13 4,000 7.8 3,915 10
20,000 3,900
13 3,800
13.0 5
3,700 5.8
10,000
13
3,600 0

Aug-24
Jul-24

Dec-24
Nov-24
Sep-24

Oct-24
0 13
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Ipca Labs – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Ipca Labs – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 88: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 89: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)

15 16

14
12 1.7 1.3
12

9 10
6.8
7.2 8
13.0 13.5
6 6

4
3
5.4
4.2 2

0 0
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Ipca Labs – key therapeutic drivers


Exhibit 90: Dec MAT year-ends, 2021-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn) MAT sales yoy growth (%)
Rank Therapies MAT Dec-21 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
1 Pain/analgesics 11,662 14,203 16,408 18,323 21.8 15.5 11.7
2 Cardiac 4,294 4,676 5,188 6,057 8.9 10.9 16.8
3 Anti-infectives 3,004 3,062 3,244 3,473 1.9 5.9 7.1
4 Derma 1,504 1,868 2,224 2,703 24.3 19.0 21.5
5 Antineoplast/immunomodulator 1,488 1,813 2,192 2,562 21.8 20.9 16.9
6 Gastro-intestinal 1,859 2,019 2,075 2,321 8.6 2.8 11.9
7 Urology 932 1,301 1,617 2,211 39.6 24.2 36.7
8 Respiratory 1,448 1,845 2,007 2,054 27.4 8.8 2.3
9 Neuro/CNS 1,202 1,502 1,683 1,937 24.9 12.0 15.1
10 Anti-malarial 2,042 1,674 1,814 1,887 (18.0) 8.3 4.0

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Pharmaceuticals
India Research

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34

Micro Labs

Micro Labs – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 3.1% yoy Micro Labs – Dec-24 sales grew 1.9% yoy
Exhibit 91: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2021-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 92: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)

MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)
9.5
3,500 3,289 3,227 10
40,000
35,493
7 3,083 3,198 3,014
34,431 2,878 9
35,000 32,891 3,000
6.6 6 8
30,000 2,500 7
5
2,000 6
25,000
4.7 4 5
20,000 1,500 4
3
15,000 1,000 4.1 3
3.1 3.2
2 2.9 2
10,000 500
2.2 1.9 1
5,000 1 0 0

Aug-24
Jul-24

Dec-24
Nov-24
Sep-24

Oct-24
0 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Micro Labs – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Micro Labs – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 93: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 94: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)

6 4
5 3

4 3
1.8
2.6 2
3
4.8 4.7 2 3.1
2 2.8
1
1
1
0
0
(1)
(2.7) (1)
(1.4)
(2) (1)
(3) (2)
(4) (2)
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Micro Labs – key therapeutic drivers


Exhibit 95: Dec MAT year-ends, 2021-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn) MAT sales yoy growth (%)
Rank Therapies MAT Dec-21 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
1 Cardiac 5,586 5,776 6,111 6,637 3.4 5.8 8.6
2 Pain/analgesics 5,645 6,030 6,369 6,227 6.8 5.6 (2.2)
3 Anti-diabetic 4,085 4,490 4,741 5,120 9.9 5.6 8.0
4 Anti-infectives 4,102 4,070 4,200 4,212 (0.8) 3.2 0.3
5 Neuro/CNS 2,483 2,687 2,592 2,626 8.2 (3.5) 1.3
6 Opthal/otologicals 1,788 1,992 2,102 1,958 11.4 5.5 (6.8)
7 Derma 1,331 1,484 1,638 1,947 11.5 10.4 18.8
8 Respiratory 1,612 1,834 1,901 1,891 13.8 3.6 (0.5)
9 Gastro-intestinal 1,442 1,621 1,613 1,557 12.4 (0.5) (3.5)
10 VMN 1,035 1,047 970 1,005 1.2 (7.4) 3.6

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Pharmaceuticals
India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
35

Pfizer

Pfizer – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 2.1% yoy Pfizer – Dec-24 sales grew 6.5% yoy
Exhibit 96: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 97: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)

MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)

40,000 3 3,500 24
2,944 2,955 2,969 3,033
33,952 2,886
35,000 32,928 33,250 3,000 2,679
2 19
2.1
30,000 2,500
1
2,000 14
25,000 1.0
0
20,000 1,500 7.2 6.5 9
6.1
(1)
15,000 1,000 3.3
(2) 4
10,000 500
(3.4) 2.4 1.9
5,000 (3) 0 (1)

Aug-24

Oct-24

Dec-24
Jul-24

Nov-24
Sep-24
0 (4)
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Pfizer – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Pfizer – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 98: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 99: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)

1.2 2.5

1 2.0

0.2
0.8 1.5
1.5

0.6 1.0 2.1


0.4
1.0
0.4 0.5 0.9

0.2 0.4 0.0


(0.3)

0 (0.5)
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Pfizer – key therapeutic drivers


Exhibit 100: Dec MAT year-ends, 2021-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn) MAT sales yoy growth (%)
Rank Therapies MAT Dec-21 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
1 Cardiac 3,557 3,570 4,186 4,569 0.4 17.3 9.2
2 Anti-infectives 4,493 5,249 3,988 4,431 16.8 (24.0) 11.1
3 VMN 5,097 4,218 4,228 4,314 (17.2) 0.2 2.0
4 Vaccines 3,702 2,840 3,102 3,816 (23.3) 9.3 23.0
5 Gastro-intestinal 3,559 3,294 3,371 3,245 (7.4) 2.3 (3.7)
6 Gynaec 2,352 2,586 2,725 2,668 10.0 5.4 (2.1)
7 Pain/analgesics 2,175 2,332 2,458 2,533 7.2 5.4 3.0
8 Respiratory 3,116 2,803 2,982 2,526 (10.1) 6.4 (15.3)
9 Hormones 2,785 2,611 2,379 2,484 (6.2) (8.9) 4.4
10 Antineoplast/immunomodulator 686 853 1,146 1,039 24.4 34.4 (9.3)

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Pharmaceuticals
India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
36

Sanofi

Sanofi – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 5.0% yoy Sanofi – Dec-24 sales grew 1.3% yoy
Exhibit 101: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 102: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)

MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)
2,500 10.5 12
25,000 22,893 6
21,761 21,793 10
1,933 1,908 1,947 1,885 1,915 1,916
5 2,000 8
20,000
5.2 5.0 6
4 1,500
4
15,000 1.3
2
3 1,000 (1.0)
1.7 0
10,000
2 0.5 (2)
500
(4)
5,000 (3.3)
1
0.1 0 (6)

Aug-24
Jul-24

Dec-24
Nov-24
Sep-24

Oct-24
0 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Sanofi – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Sanofi – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 103: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 104: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)

1 6
1
1 5
0.6
1
1.0 4
0 1.4
0
- 3
0.1
0
5.0
(0)
2
(0) (0.8) 3.0
(1) 1
(1)
(1) 0
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Sanofi – key therapeutic drivers


Exhibit 105: Dec MAT year-ends, 2021-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn) MAT sales yoy growth (%)
Rank Therapies MAT Dec-21 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
1 Hormones 0 0 0 0 (47.3) 7.7 36.8
2 Anti-diabetic 11,414 11,587 11,049 11,719 1.5 (4.6) 6.1
3 Respiratory 3,720 4,154 4,382 4,505 11.7 5.5 2.8
4 Gastro-intestinal 2,584 2,995 3,168 3,882 15.9 5.8 22.5
5 Pain/analgesics 2,088 2,107 2,212 2,201 1.0 5.0 (0.5)
6 VMN 545 525 582 252 (3.7) 11.0 (56.7)
7 Others 83 114 116 133 37.2 1.7 14.8
8 Antineoplast/immunomodulator 142 165 193 122 16.0 17.5 (37.0)
9 Gynaec 104 106 86 79 1.2 (18.2) (8.8)
10 Hepatoprotectives 0 0 0 0 578.2 32.1 (64.2)

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Pharmaceuticals
India Research

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37

Alembic

Alembic – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 0.8% yoy Alembic – Dec-24 sales declined 1.4% yoy
Exhibit 106: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 107: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)

MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)

35,000 31,907 32,156 60 3,500 10


29,392 2,793 2,884 8
30,000 3,000 2,712 2,723 2,737 2,752
6
40 2,500 6.5 4
25,000
2,000 2
20,000 3.2 1.6 0
20 1,500 (2)
15,000 8.9 8.6
1,000 (1.4) (4)
0.8
10,000 (6)
0 500 (5.1) (5.0) (8)
5,000 0 (10)

Aug-24
Jul-24

Dec-24
Nov-24
Sep-24

Oct-24
0 (20)
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Alembic – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Alembic – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 108: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 109: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)

10 6

8 4

5.1
4.2 2
6 2.2
0 0.8
4 8.6
(2)
5.3
2 (6.5)
(4)

0 (6)
(1.0)

(2) (8)
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Alembic – key therapeutic drivers


Exhibit 110: Dec MAT year-ends, 2021-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn) MAT sales yoy growth (%)
Rank Therapies MAT Dec-21 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
1 Anti-infectives 6,733 6,728 7,069 6,588 (0.1) 5.1 (6.8)
2 Cardiac 4,252 4,521 4,808 5,124 6.3 6.4 6.6
3 Gynaec 2,969 3,829 4,574 4,902 28.9 19.5 7.2
4 Respiratory 3,432 3,868 4,347 4,096 12.7 12.4 (5.8)
5 Gastro-intestinal 2,990 3,089 3,248 3,435 3.3 5.2 5.8
6 Anti-diabetic 1,994 2,290 2,395 2,655 14.8 4.6 10.8
7 VMN 1,544 1,620 1,683 1,619 4.9 3.9 (3.8)
8 Pain/analgesics 959 1,065 1,135 1,073 11.0 6.6 (5.4)
9 Opthal/otologicals 487 617 801 906 26.8 29.8 13.1
10 Urology 740 855 919 901 15.4 7.5 (2.0)

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Pharmaceuticals
India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
38

JB

JB – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 11.5% yoy JB – Dec-24 sales grew 11.0% yoy
Exhibit 111: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 112: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)

MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)

30,000 30 3,000 18
26,848
2,351 2,396 2,393 2,354 16
24,079 2,500 2,250 2,274
25,000 25 14
21,112 15.5
2,000 13.7 12
20,000 20 12.5
11.8 11.8 10
18.0 1,500 11.0
15,000 14.1 15 8
1,000 6
10,000 10 4
11.5 500
2
5,000 5
0 0

Aug-24
Jul-24

Dec-24
Nov-24
Sep-24

Oct-24
0 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

JB – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth JB – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 113: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 114: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)

16 14

14 12
2.4 0.6
12
10
10 3.8
8
6.5
8
14.1 6 11.5
6
4
4 7.9
2 4.4
2

0 0
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

JB – key therapeutic drivers


Exhibit 115: Dec MAT year-ends, 2021-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn) MAT sales yoy growth (%)
Rank Therapies MAT Dec-21 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
1 Stomatologicals 20 0 0 0 (99.6) (99.8) 2,050.0
2 Cardiac 6,978 8,374 9,900 11,686 20.0 18.2 18.0
3 Gastro-intestinal 4,826 5,633 6,452 6,891 16.7 14.5 6.8
4 Anti-parasitic 1,354 1,751 1,964 2,115 29.3 12.2 7.7
5 Opthal/otologicals 1,832 2,026 2,025 2,109 10.6 (0.0) 4.1
6 Gynaec 633 813 1,020 1,119 28.5 25.6 9.7
7 Derma 472 523 578 693 10.6 10.6 19.9
8 Anti-infectives 487 420 423 432 (13.6) 0.6 2.3
9 Respiratory 154 291 398 402 89.2 36.8 1.0
10 VMN 324 313 340 366 (3.2) 8.7 7.6

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Pharmaceuticals
India Research

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39

Eris

Eris – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 5.9% yoy Eris – Dec-24 sales declined 0.4% yoy
Exhibit 116: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 117: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)

MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)
3,000 9
35,000 10 2,646
9.0 2,536 2,491 2,539 2,541 2,484 8
30,212
28,522 9 2,500
30,000 8.2 6.3 7
26,160 8
6
25,000 2,000
7 5
20,000 6 1,500 4
5.9 5 4.3 3
15,000 5.4 1,000
4 2
2.8
10,000 3 1.8 1
500
2 (0.4) 0
5,000 0 (1)
1

Aug-24

Dec-24
Nov-24
Jul-24

Sep-24

Oct-24
0 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Eris – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Eris – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 118: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 119: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)

12 7
10 6
8 5.9
5
6
10.6 4 4.0
4 9.0
3
2 4.2
2
0 3.3
1
(2)
(5.8)
(4) 0
(1.4)
(6) (1)

(8) (2)
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Eris – key therapeutic drivers


Exhibit 120: Dec MAT year-ends, 2021-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn) MAT sales yoy growth (%)
Rank Therapies MAT Dec-21 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
1 Others - 0 - - - (100.0) -
2 Anti-diabetic 7,204 7,850 8,861 9,589 9.0 12.9 8.2
3 Cardiac 4,024 4,045 4,386 4,553 0.5 8.4 3.8
4 VMN 3,225 3,166 3,462 3,823 (1.8) 9.3 10.4
5 Derma 3,373 3,640 3,340 3,783 7.9 (8.2) 13.2
6 Antineoplast/immunomodulator 1,460 1,706 2,036 1,981 16.8 19.3 (2.7)
7 Gynaec 918 1,211 1,490 1,473 31.9 23.0 (1.2)
8 Neuro/CNS 1,142 1,316 1,445 1,396 15.2 9.8 (3.4)
9 Gastro-intestinal 974 892 896 979 (8.4) 0.5 9.3
10 Pain/analgesics 554 620 768 794 12.0 23.8 3.4

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Pharmaceuticals
India Research

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40

FDC

FDC – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 10.4% yoy FDC – Dec-24 sales grew 10.9% yoy
Exhibit 121: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 122: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)

MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)

30,000 11.7 12 2,500 2,229 16


11.7 2,128 2,179
2,052 14
24,525
25,000 22,218 2,000 13.9 1,793
12 1,638 12
19,886 12.4 12.2
20,000 1,500 7.9 10
11 10.9
8
15,000 1,000 6
11
10,000 4
500 4.3
10.4 2
10
5,000
0 0

Aug-24
Jul-24

Dec-24
Nov-24
Sep-24

Oct-24
0 10
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

FDC – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth FDC – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 123: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 124: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)

14 12

12 10
1.5 2.5
10
8
8 4.0
6
6 11.7 5.2 10.4
4
4
6.2
2 2
2.7

0 0
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

FDC – key therapeutic drivers


Exhibit 125: Dec MAT year-ends, 2021-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn) MAT sales yoy growth (%)
Rank Therapies MAT Dec-21 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
1 Hepatoprotectives 15 10 5 6 (34.0) (53.3) 22.7
2 Gastro-intestinal 4,574 5,753 6,947 8,189 25.8 20.8 17.9
3 Anti-infectives 6,110 6,866 7,577 8,050 12.4 10.4 6.2
4 VMN 1,399 1,663 1,749 1,890 18.9 5.1 8.1
5 Derma 1,306 1,408 1,488 1,694 7.8 5.7 13.8
6 Opthal/otologicals 1,017 1,073 1,175 1,122 5.5 9.5 (4.5)
7 Cardiac 846 790 804 858 (6.6) 1.8 6.7
8 Gynaec 594 627 655 819 5.6 4.3 25.1
9 Respiratory 523 551 570 578 5.2 3.6 1.3
10 Anti-diabetic 242 254 299 381 4.9 17.6 27.7

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Pharmaceuticals
India Research

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41

Himalaya

Himalaya – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 6.6% yoy Himalaya – Dec-24 sales grew 4.2% yoy
Exhibit 126: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 127: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)

MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)

20,000 7 1,800 1,654 1,653 15


18,311 1,595 1,595 1,565 1,579
18,000 17,177 1,600 13
16,286 6 11.3
6.6 1,400
16,000 12.5 11
14,000 5 1,200
5.5 9
12,000 1,000
3.3 4 7
10,000 800
3 5
8,000 600
5.0 4.2 3
6,000 400
2
200 2.9 1
4,000 2.2
1 0 (1)
2,000

Aug-24

Dec-24
Nov-24
Jul-24

Sep-24

Oct-24
0 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Himalaya – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Himalaya – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 128: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 129: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)

15 14
12

10 12.1 10
8
6 11.9 0.4
5 0.3
4
5.5 6.6
2
0
0

(6.9) (2)
(5.8)
(5) (4)
(6)
(10) (8)
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Himalaya – key therapeutic drivers


Exhibit 130: Dec MAT year-ends, 2021-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn) MAT sales yoy growth (%)
Rank Therapies MAT Dec-21 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
1 Derma 0 0 - - 465.6 (100.0) -
2 Hepatoprotectives 5,124 5,481 6,003 6,667 7.0 9.5 11.1
3 Derma 2,739 2,676 2,933 3,026 (2.3) 9.6 3.2
4 Urology 1,350 1,404 1,438 1,523 4.0 2.5 5.9
5 Cardiac 1,061 1,145 1,135 1,288 7.8 (0.9) 13.5
6 Gastro-intestinal 1,180 1,148 1,115 1,169 (2.8) (2.9) 4.9
7 Sex stimulants/rejuvenators 850 892 905 942 5.0 1.4 4.1
8 Others 698 724 830 895 3.7 14.7 7.8
9 Gynaec 688 716 727 800 4.1 1.6 9.9
10 Pain/analgesics 557 560 577 570 0.6 2.9 (1.1)

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Pharmaceuticals
India Research

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42

Ajanta

Ajanta – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 10.8% yoy Ajanta – Dec-24 sales grew 7.0% yoy
Exhibit 131: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 132: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)

MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)

20,000 14.8 16
17,751 1,800 18
1,582 1,557
18,000 1,600 1,490 1,490 1,469 1,502 16
16,025 14
16.3 16.9
16,000 14,365 1,400 14
12
14,000 1,200 12
12,000 11.6 10 1,000 10
10.8 10.9
10,000 8 800 9.5 8
9.3
8,000 600 6
6 7.0
6,000 400 4
4
4,000 200 2
2,000 2 0 0

Aug-24

Dec-24
Nov-24
Jul-24

Sep-24

Oct-24
0 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Ajanta – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Ajanta – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 133: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 134: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)

15 12

10
12 2.8

3.6 8
9
6
5.4 10.8
6 4.1 11.6
4

3
2
3.8 2.6

0 0
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Ajanta – key therapeutic drivers


Exhibit 135: Dec MAT year-ends, 2021-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn) MAT sales yoy growth (%)
Rank Therapies MAT Dec-21 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
1 Blood related 21 23 23 24 9.4 (0.4) 6.4
2 Cardiac 4,750 5,304 5,635 6,277 11.7 6.2 11.4
3 Opthal/otologicals 3,500 4,018 4,615 4,909 14.8 14.9 6.4
4 Derma 2,219 2,751 3,233 3,763 23.9 17.5 16.4
5 Pain/analgesics 909 1,084 1,268 1,402 19.2 17.0 10.6
6 Anti-diabetic 339 371 407 433 9.5 9.6 6.3
7 Respiratory 216 249 276 292 15.1 10.7 5.8
8 Neuro/CNS 219 230 222 244 5.1 (3.6) 10.0
9 Urology 99 121 131 147 22.8 8.4 12.2
10 VMN 134 122 115 114 (8.8) (5.5) (1.3)

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Pharmaceuticals
India Research

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43

Indoco

Indoco – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 1.5% yoy Indoco – Dec-24 sales grew 2.7% yoy
Exhibit 136: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 137: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)

MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)

15,000 5 1,400 12
1,222
4.3 4.5 1,174 1,214 1,197 1,174
1,200 1,079 10
4 9.5
13,082 1,000 11.0
12,552 12,886 3.5 8
3 800
6
12,000 2.5 600
2.7
1.5 2 5.2 4
400
1.5
200
3.4 2.7 2
1 0.2
0.5 0 0

Aug-24

Dec-24
Nov-24
Jul-24

Sep-24

Oct-24
9,000 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Indoco – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Indoco – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 138: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 139: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)

5 8
4 6
3
4
2 4.5
2.4 5.4
2.7 2
1
2.4
1.5
0 0
(1) (2)
(2) (4.2) (6.3)
(4)
(3)
(4) (6)

(5) (8)
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Indoco – key therapeutic drivers


Exhibit 140: Dec MAT year-ends, 2021-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn) MAT sales yoy growth (%)
Rank Therapies MAT Dec-21 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
1 Anti-malarial - - - 0 - - -
2 Stomatologicals 2,110 2,312 2,469 2,402 9.6 6.8 (2.7)
3 Anti-infectives 2,240 2,305 2,324 2,305 2.9 0.8 (0.8)
4 Gastro-intestinal 1,610 1,791 1,831 2,104 11.2 2.2 14.9
5 Respiratory 2,160 2,182 2,176 2,083 1.0 (0.3) (4.3)
6 Urology 863 959 1,005 1,099 11.0 4.9 9.3
7 Opthal/otologicals 700 761 835 813 8.7 9.7 (2.6)
8 Derma 464 571 684 736 22.9 19.8 7.6
9 VMN 673 671 647 677 (0.2) (3.5) 4.6
10 Pain/analgesics 410 382 349 337 (6.7) (8.8) (3.2)

Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Pharmaceuticals
India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
UPDATE

Economy
Prices
January 13, 2025

December CPI inflation softens as expected Summary of key macro metrics for India
CPI inflation in December softened to 5.2%, supported by a broad-based 2023 2024 2025E 2026E
deceleration in prices. We maintain our FY2025 average headline CPI Real economy
Real GDP growth (%) 7.0 8.2 6.1 6.4
estimate at 4.8% and expect CPI inflation to glide toward the RBI’s 4% target
Nominal GDP growth (%) 14.2 9.6 10.3 10.9
in the next few months. While we stick to our February rate cut call, we remain CPI Inflation (avg., %) 6.7 5.4 4.8 4.2
cautious on the timing and quantum of rate cuts in CY2025. Public finance
Center's GFD/GDP (%) 6.4 5.6 4.6 4.5
Monetary policy
Food price inflation moderates but remains high Repo Rate (%, eop) 6.50 6.50 6.25 5.75

December CPI inflation decelerated to 5.2% (Kotak: 5.4%; Consensus: 5.3%; SDF Rate (%, eop) 6.25 6.25 6.00 5.25
CRR (%, eop) 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.0
November: 5.5%). Headline CPI fell by 0.6% mom led by a sharp fall in food prices External sector
and moderate decline in core components’ prices. Food inflation (8.4% yoy) was Current Account Balance (% of GDP) (2.0) (0.7) (1.3) (1.5)
Brent crude oil price (avg., USD/bbl) 95.4 82.9 80.0 80.0
led by sharp price increases in vegetables, oils and fats, fruits eggs and cereals.
USD/INR (avg.) 80.3 82.8 84.4 86.5
Durable food inflation remained benign at 3.5% in December. Meanwhile, volatile
food inflation remained elevated at 17.8% although showing continued signs of Source: CEIC, Bloomberg, RBI, Kotak Economics Research estimates

moderation. CPI excluding fruits and vegetables remained stable at 4.3%, while
CPI excluding vegetables remained stable at 3.7%, below RBI’s 4% inflation
target (see Exhibits 1-4). High frequency data shows softening prices of

Private Circulation Only. This document may only be distributed to QIBs (qualified institutional buyers) as defined under rule 144A of the Securities A ct of 1933
Quick Numbers
vegetables and pulses, while oils and fats and fruits show upward momentum.
Meanwhile, even as both urban and rural inflations have eased, rural inflation
continues to be relatively higher (see Exhibit 5). December headline inflation at 5.2%; core inflation at
3.6%

Core inflation decelerates marginally Retain our FY2025 and FY2026 average inflation
Core inflation (CPI excluding food, beverages and fuel) moderated marginally estimates at 4.8% and 4.2%, respectively
to 3.6% (Kotak: 3.9%; November: 3.7%). Sequentially, core components’ prices
Retain our February rate cut call; remain cautious on
remained broadly unchanged from the previous month (compared to a rise of the timing and quantum of rate cuts in CY2025
0.2% mom in November) led by a commensurate slowing in prices across all
components. Gold, silver and ornaments all saw a sequential decline of (0.1%),
(0.8%) and (1.0%), respectively, in December. Various core inflation metrics
indicate similar softening, with super-core inflation (core inflation excluding
petrol, diesel, gold and silver) continuing to decelerate at a sharper pace (see
Exhibit 6). We expect core inflation to average 3.6% in FY2025 and 4.3% in
FY2026. We retain our FY2025 and FY2026 average headline CPI inflation
forecasts at 4.8% and 4.2%, respectively (see Exhibit 7).

We retain our February rate cut call


Given the softening trends in inflation and economic activity, we retain our call
of a February rate cut. The RBI’s increased tolerance for rupee weakness
signals its willingness to prioritize domestic challenges, which further
strengthens the case for a rate cut in February. However, we remain cautious
on the timing and quantum of rate cuts in CY2025 amid adverse global
headwinds from (1) new US administration policies prompting an extended Related Research
pause by the Fed, (2) surge in oil prices and (3) risks from sharp depreciation → Inflation decelerates on lower food prices
of INR led by USD strengthening and any retaliatory measures to tariffs. → Inflation spike dashes rate cut hopes
→ Inflation spikes up in September

Full sector coverage on KINSITE

Upasna Bhardwaj Suvodeep Rakshit Harsh Doshi Swarupjit Palit


45

Inflation declines sequentially in December


Exhibit 1: Trend in momentum, base effect, and monthly change in CPI inflation (%)

Momentum Base effect Monthly change in CPI inflation


4

(1)

(2)
Jun-22

Jun-23

Jun-24

Jun-25
Sep-22

Sep-23

Sep-24

Sep-25
Dec-21

Dec-22

Dec-23

Dec-24
Mar-22

Mar-23

Mar-24

Mar-25
Source: CEIC, Kotak Economics Research

Headline inflation softening supported by broad-based deceleration in prices


Exhibit 2: Contribution to CPI inflation by major segments (%)

Food and beverages Misc. Others CPI inflation


8

0
Jun-22

Jun-23

Jun-24

Sep-24
Sep-22

Sep-23
Dec-22

Dec-23

Dec-24
Dec-21

Mar-22

Mar-23

Mar-24

(1)

Source: CEIC, Kotak Economics Research

Economy
India Research
k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
46

Food inflation falls; vegetables and oils and fats prices remain elevated
Exhibit 3: Contribution to CPI food inflation by major segments (%)

Cereals and products Milk and milk product Vegetables


Prepared meals, snacks, sweets, etc Meat and fish Oils and fats
Others Food and beverages
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
(2)
(4)

Jun-23
Jun-22

Jun-24
Nov-22

Nov-23

Nov-24
Sep-24
Sep-22

Sep-23
Dec-22

Dec-23
Dec-21

Dec-24
May-22

May-23

Jul-23

May-24

Jul-24
Jul-22

Oct-22

Oct-24
Oct-23
Apr-22

Apr-23

Apr-24
Feb-24
Feb-22

Feb-23

Jan-24
Jan-22

Jan-23

Aug-23

Aug-24
Mar-22

Aug-22

Mar-24
Mar-23

Source: CEIC, Kotak Economics Research

Both durable and volatile food inflation decelerate


Exhibit 4: Trend in various measures of food inflation

CPI F&B - durable CPI F&B - non-durable CPI F&B excl. vegetables and fruits
35 CPI excl. vegetables
14
30
25 12
20 10
15
8
10
5 6
0 4
(5)
2
(10)
(15) 0
Jun-14

Jun-21
Nov-20

Jun-14

Jun-21
Nov-20
Sep-19

Sep-19
Dec-17

Dec-24
May-17

May-24
Jul-18

Apr-20

May-17

May-24
Dec-24
Oct-16

Dec-17
Oct-23

Apr-20
Oct-16

Oct-23
Feb-19

Jul-18
Jan-15

Jan-22
Mar-16

Aug-22
Mar-23
Aug-15

Feb-19
Mar-16

Mar-23
Jan-15
Aug-15

Jan-22
Aug-22

Notes:
(a) F&B represents food and beverages.
(b) Durable food items include cereals, pulses, milk, meat & fish, spices, non-alcoholic beverages, and prepared meals & snacks. Non-durable are the remaining
items including vegetables, fruits, etc.

Source: CEIC, Kotak Economics Research

Economy
India Research
k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
47

Rural inflation continues to outpace urban inflation


Exhibit 5: Rural and urban CPI inflation (%)

Rural CPI inflation Urban CPI inflation


10

Jun-20

Jun-21

Jun-22
Jun-19

Jun-23

Jun-24
Dec-18

Dec-19

Dec-22

Dec-23

Dec-24
Dec-20

Dec-21
Source: CEIC, Kotak Economics Research

Core inflation softens marginally


Exhibit 6: Trend in various measures of core CPI inflation (%)

Core inflation Core inflation (excl. pan tobacco)


Core-core inflation Super-core inflation
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
Jun-19

Jun-20

Jun-21

Jun-22

Jun-23

Jun-24
Dec-21

Dec-22

Dec-23

Dec-24
Dec-18

Dec-19

Dec-20

Notes:
(a) Core is defined as headline excluding food and fuel.
(b) Core-core is defined as core excluding petrol and diesel.
(c) Super-core is defined as core-core excluding gold and silver.

Source: CEIC, Kotak Economics Research estimates

Economy
India Research
k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
48

We retain our FY2025 and FY2026 average headline inflation estimates at 4.8% and 4.2%, respectively
Exhibit 7: Trend in headline CPI and core inflation (%)

CPI inflation Core CPI inflation

1
Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-21

Sep-22

Sep-25
Sep-20

Sep-23

Sep-24
Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-22

Mar-23

Mar-25

Mar-26
Mar-20

Mar-21

Mar-24
Source: CEIC, Kotak Economics Research estimates

Economy
India Research
k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
49

December 2024: Results calendar


Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
13-Jan 14-Jan 15-Jan 16-Jan 17-Jan 18-Jan
Anand Rathi Wealth HDFC AMC Authum Investment Alok Industries Aether Industries Can Fin Homes
Angel One Network 18 Media Bank of Maharashtra Axis Bank ICICI Lombard CPCL
HCL Technologies Shoppers Stop CEAT Hatsun Agro Indian Hotels DCM Shriram
Himadri Special HDFC Life Insurance Havells India Jio Financial Kotak Mahindra Bank
L&T Technology Services Infosys Rallis India RBL Bank
Maharashtra Scooters LTIMindtree Ramkrishna Forg.
Oracle Financial Mastek SBI Life Insurance
Punjab & Sind Bank Metro Brands Supreme Petrochem
Reliance Industries Tech Mahindra
Sterling & Wilson Wipro
20-Jan 21-Jan 22-Jan 23-Jan 24-Jan 25-Jan
APL Apollo Tubes Aditya Birla Real Estate BPCL Adani Green Energy Alkyl Amines ICICI Bank
Central Bank of India Cyient DLM Coforge Capri Global Atul IDFC Bank
Dixon Technolgoies ICICI Prudential Life Gravita India Cyient AU Small Finance Bank J K Cement
ICICI Securities Indiamart HDFC Bank Dr Reddy's Laboratories CreditAccess Gramin SBFC
IDBI Bank KEI Industries Hindustan Unilever Indus Towers Godrej Consumer Products Yes Bank
IRFC Tanla Platforms HUDCO Kfin Technologies Granules India
J&K Bank Tata Technologies Laxmi Organic Mankind Pharma HPCL
L&T Finance Nuvoco Vistas Corp. MphasiS Jindal Saw
MCX India Persistent Systems Nippon AMC JSW Steel
MRPL Pidilite Industries Sona BLW Precision Laurus Labs
Oberoi Realty Polycab Syngene International LMW
One 97 Communications Tata Communications Tejas Networks Torrent Pharmaceuticals
Supreme Industries Zensar Technologies Ujjivan Small Finance Bank Trident
UltraTech Cement
United Spirits
27-Jan 28-Jan 29-Jan 30-Jan 31-Jan 1-Feb
Emami Apar Industries Bajaj Finance Bajaj Finserv Cholamandalam
Petronet LNG Bajaj Auto Blue Dart Expres Bajaj Holdings & Investment Mahindra Holidays
Sumitomo Chemical BHEL Blue Star Bharat Electronics Mahindra Lifespace Developers
Bosch CAMS Biocon Marico
Cipla Craftsman Automation Dabur India Medplus Health Services
CSB Bank KPIT Technologies Navin Fluorine Nestle India
Exide Industries Maruti Suzuki Shree Cement ONGC
IOCL Radico Khaitan Poonawalla Fincorp
JM Financial Tata Motors
Mahindra & Mahindra Financial TeamLease Services
Piramal Pharma Vaibhav Global
Star Health and Allied Insurance
TTK Prestige
TVS Holdings
TVS Motor
UTI AMC
3-Feb 4-Feb 5-Feb 6-Feb 7-Feb 8-Feb
Castrol India Asian Paints Cummins India Motherson Sumi Wiring Akzo Nobel India Amara Raja Energy & Mobility
BASF India Kansai Nerolac Cholamandalam Financial
Max Financial Services Page Industries
Thermax Timken
10-Feb 11-Feb 12-Feb 13-Feb 14-Feb 15-Feb
Bata India Berger Paints Endurance Technologies Hindalco Industries
CRISIL P&G Hygiene P&G Health United Breweries
Esab India Suven Pharma
Gillette India
Indigo Paints
17-Feb 18-Feb 19-Feb 20-Feb 21-Feb 22-Feb
ABB

Source: BSE, NSE, Kotak Institutional Equities

India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
50

Kotak Institutional Equities: Valuation summary of KIE Universe stocks


Price (Rs) Fair Value Upside Mkt cap. O/S shares EPS (Rs) P/E (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) ADV-3M (US$ mn)
Company Rating 13-Jan-25 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E Traded Delivered
Automobiles & Components
Amara Raja Energy & Mobility SELL 1,036 1,050 1 190 2.2 183 53 63 69 19 16 15 2.5 2.2 1.9 11 10 9 14 14 14 0.5 0.6 0.7 9 4
Apollo Tyres SELL 443 400 (10) 281 3.2 638 21 26 30 21 17 15 1.9 1.8 1.6 8 7 6 9 11 11 1.4 1.6 1.6 8 3
Ashok Leyland ADD 202 235 16 594 6.9 2,936 10 11 12 20 18 17 5.5 4.6 4.1 12 11 10 29 27 26 2.0 2.2 3.0 21 9
Bajaj Auto SELL 8,596 7,225 (16) 2,401 28 279 314 336 374 27 26 23 9.0 8.4 7.8 21 20 17 34 34 35 2.9 3.1 3.5 70 34
Balkrishna Industries SELL 2,596 2,375 (9) 502 5.8 193 82 90 102 32 29 25 5.0 4.4 3.9 19 17 14 17 16 16 0.7 0.7 0.8 6 3
Bharat Forge SELL 1,170 1,100 (6) 559 6.5 478 27 35 43 43 34 28 7.0 6.0 5.1 21 19 16 17 19 20 0.6 0.7 0.7 16 8
CEAT SELL 3,083 2,715 (12) 125 1.4 40 137 165 171 23 19 18 2.8 2.5 2.3 9 8 8 13 14 13 1.1 1.3 1.4 10 3
CIE Automotive SELL 457 450 (2) 173 2.0 378 23 25 28 20 18 16 2.6 2.4 2.1 12 11 10 13 14 14 1.2 1.4 1.5 2 1
Eicher Motors SELL 4,939 3,500 (29) 1,354 15.6 272 170 174 190 29 28 26 7.3 6.4 5.7 26 24 21 27 24 23 1.1 1.2 1.4 30 16
Endurance Technologies SELL 2,006 1,875 (7) 282 3.3 141 56 66 74 36 30 27 5.0 4.5 4.0 18 16 14 14 15 15 0.6 0.7 0.8 4 2
Escorts Kubota SELL 3,298 3,000 (9) 369 4.3 112 114 121 137 29 27 24 3.5 3.2 2.8 25 22 19 12 12 12 0.5 0.6 0.6 10 3
Exide Industries SELL 373 300 (19) 317 3.7 850 14 16 17 27 24 22 2.2 2.1 1.9 15 14 13 9 9 9 0.7 0.7 0.7 20 7
Hero Motocorp SELL 4,044 3,800 (6) 809 9.3 200 226 241 262 18 17 15 4.2 3.9 3.6 11 11 9 24 24 24 3.9 4.2 4.5 38 19
Hyundai Motor ADD 1,767 2,025 15 1,436 16.6 813 72 78 91 25 23 19 9.4 7.5 6.1 14 13 11 38 33 31 0.8 1.8 2.1 —
Mahindra & Mahindra BUY 3,000 3,400 13 3,730 43.1 1,159 103 114 126 29 26 24 5.6 4.7 4.0 22 20 17 21 19 18 0.5 0.6 0.6 113 61
Maruti Suzuki REDUCE 11,498 10,800 (6) 3,615 41.7 314 470 500 541 24 23 21 3.9 3.6 3.2 16 15 13 17 16 16 1.6 1.7 1.9 67 35
MRF SELL 113,004 102,500 (9) 479 5.5 4 4,734 5,327 5,958 24 21 19 2.6 2.3 2.1 11 9 8 11 11 12 0.2 0.2 0.3 10 3
Ola Electric REDUCE 70 70 (0) 310 3.6 4,411 (3) (3) (2) NM NM NM 5.0 6.1 7.2 NM NM NM NM NM NM 0.0 0.0 0.0 56 14
Samvardhana Motherson REDUCE 140 170 22 983 11.4 7,036 6 6 7 25 22 19 2.9 2.6 2.3 10 9 8 13 12 13 0.6 0.7 0.7 32 17
Schaeffler India REDUCE 3,186 3,700 16 498 5.7 156 60 69 80 53 46 40 9.4 8.4 7.5 34 29 25 19 19 20 0.1 0.0 0.0 3 2
SKF ADD 4,208 5,000 19 208 2.4 49 119 143 161 35 29 26 6.9 6.1 5.4 26 21 18 20 21 21 1.1 1.3 1.4 2 1
Sona BLW Precision ADD 562 700 25 349 4.0 618 11 14 16 52 40 34 6.1 5.5 4.9 29 24 20 15 14 15 0.4 0.6 0.7 15 9
Tata Motors ADD 751 925 23 2,764 31.9 3,677 57 69 86 13 11 9 2.7 2.2 1.8 5 5 4 22 22 23 0.9 1.3 2.0 128 52
Timken ADD 2,750 3,800 38 207 2.4 75 57 73 90 48 38 30 7.3 6.2 5.2 33 26 21 16 18 19 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 2
TVS Motor SELL 2,177 1,850 (15) 1,034 11.9 475 52 60 71 42 36 31 13.7 10.8 8.7 26 22 19 32 33 31 0.6 0.7 0.8 22 11
Uno Minda SELL 1,036 925 (11) 595 6.9 572 17 19 21 62 54 48 10.1 8.6 7.4 33 28 25 16 16 15 0.2 0.2 0.3 10 5
Varroc Engineering SELL 575 460 (20) 88 1.0 153 16 26 32 37 22 18 5.0 4.1 3.3 12 9 8 14 18 19 — — — 4 2
Automobiles & Components Cautious 24,252 279.9 25.5 22.6 19.6 4.7 4.1 3.6 13.7 12.2 10.6 18.2 18.1 18.2 1.2 1.4 1.6 708 323
Banks
AU Small Finance Bank ADD 560 675 20 417 4.8 744 30 42 59 19 13 9 2.5 2.1 1.7 — — — 15 17 20 — — — 16 8
Axis Bank BUY 1,049 1,500 43 3,248 37.5 3,087 81 90 103 13 12 10 1.9 1.7 1.5 — — — 15 15 15 1.2 1.3 1.5 108 66
Bandhan Bank BUY 138 250 82 222 2.6 1,611 25 29 33 6 5 4 0.9 0.8 0.7 — — — 17 17 17 2.9 3.4 3.8 27 11
Bank of Baroda ADD 218 270 24 1,126 13.0 5,178 31 32 34 7 7 6 1.0 0.9 0.8 — — — 14 13 12 2.9 3.0 3.1 36 15
Canara Bank REDUCE 89 110 24 803 9.3 9,071 16 17 17 5 5 5 1.0 0.8 0.8 — — — 16 15 13 3.7 3.9 3.9 27 10
City Union Bank ADD 162 170 5 120 1.4 741 15 17 19 11 10 9 1.4 1.2 1.1 — — — 12 13 13 1.4 1.6 1.9 10 4
DCB Bank BUY 109 160 46 34 0.4 313 19 22 31 6 5 4 0.7 0.6 0.5 — — — 11 12 14 1.6 2.3 3.7 2 1
Equitas Small Finance Bank BUY 68 85 26 77 0.9 1,139 3 6 10 26 10 6 1.3 1.2 1.0 — — — 5 11 16 — — — 3 2
Federal Bank BUY 188 225 20 461 5.3 2,435 16 17 20 12 11 9 1.5 1.3 1.2 — — — 12 12 13 1.2 1.3 1.6 26 12
HDFC Bank BUY 1,631 1,900 17 12,473 144.0 7,597 88 109 124 18 15 13 2.6 2.3 2.0 — — — 14 16 16 1.3 1.6 1.9 324 198
ICICI Bank BUY 1,230 1,450 18 8,681 100.2 7,023 62 65 72 20 19 17 3.2 2.9 2.5 — — — 17 16 15 1.0 1.1 1.2 184 112
IndusInd Bank BUY 942 1,650 75 734 8.5 778 91 125 140 10 8 7 1.1 1.0 0.9 — — — 11 13 13 1.4 1.9 2.1 66 35
Karur Vysya Bank BUY 209 250 20 167 1.9 804 22 23 26 10 9 8 1.5 1.4 1.2 — — — 17 16 16 2.7 2.9 3.3 6 3
Punjab National Bank ADD 95 110 15 1,097 12.7 11,011 14 13 13 7 8 8 1.0 0.9 0.8 — — — 13 11 10 2.8 2.7 2.6 44 17
SBI Cards and Payment Services BUY 714 850 19 679 7.8 951 23 35 48 30 20 15 4.8 4.0 3.2 — — — 17 22 24 0.4 0.5 0.6 9 5
State Bank of India BUY 730 975 34 6,511 75.2 8,925 66 73 92 11 10 8 1.7 1.5 1.3 — — — 15 15 16 2.0 2.2 2.3 123 53
Ujjivan Small Finance Bank BUY 33 50 52 63 0.7 1,931 4 5 7 8 6 5 1.0 0.9 0.8 — — — 14 16 17 3.0 3.7 4.5 5 2
Union Bank BUY 101 155 53 773 8.9 7,634 20 20 20 5 5 5 0.8 0.7 0.6 — — — 15 13 12 4.0 4.0 3.9 16 7
Utkarsh Small Finance Bank ADD 29 45 54 32 0.4 1,101 2 3 7 19 10 4 1.1 1.0 0.8 — — — 6 10 20 — — — 1 1
YES Bank SELL 17 18 5 537 6.2 28,768 1 1 2 23 13 9 1.1 1.0 0.9 — — — 5 8 11 — — — 22 8
Banks Attractive 38,253 441.6 13.6 12.0 10.5 1.9 1.7 1.5 13.7 13.8 14.0 1.5 1.7 1.8 1,055 569

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
51

Kotak Institutional Equities: Valuation summary of KIE Universe stocks


Price (Rs) Fair Value Upside Mkt cap. O/S shares EPS (Rs) P/E (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) ADV-3M (US$ mn)
Company Rating 13-Jan-25 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E Traded Delivered
Capital goods
ABB SELL 6,109 5,900 (3) 1,295 14.9 212 85 96 107 72 64 57 17.0 13.7 11.2 55 49 43 27 24 22 0.1 0.1 0.1 32 14
Bharat Electronics SELL 260 230 (11) 1,898 21.9 7,310 7 8 9 39 34 30 9.9 8.4 7.2 28 24 21 28 27 26 1.0 1.2 1.4 63 28
BHEL SELL 193 110 (43) 671 7.7 3,482 1 5 11 203 38 18 2.7 2.5 2.1 NM 23 12 1 7 13 (0.0) (0.2) (0.7) 41 13
Carborundum Universal REDUCE 1,225 1,380 13 233 2.7 190 27 33 40 46 37 30 6.6 5.8 5.0 28 23 19 15 17 18 0.4 0.5 0.7 2 1
CG Power & Industrial SELL 615 475 (23) 940 10.9 1,527 7 9 10 91 71 60 25.1 20.0 16.2 66 52 43 27 28 27 (0.3) (0.4) (0.5) 25 12
Cochin Shipyard SELL 1,360 800 (41) 358 4.1 263 28 30 41 49 45 33 6.5 5.9 5.3 36 30 23 14 14 17 0.7 0.8 0.9 10 9
Cummins India BUY 2,873 4,100 43 796 9.2 277 68 81 96 42 35 30 11.5 10.1 8.9 39 32 27 29 30 32 1.3 1.6 1.9 25 13
G R Infraprojects SELL 1,277 1,070 (16) 124 1.4 97 69 86 108 18 15 12 1.6 1.4 1.3 13 10 8 9 10 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0
IRB Infrastructure ADD 50 65 30 301 3.5 6,039 2 2 3 27 20 17 2.2 2.2 2.2 12 11 9 8 11 12 4.1 4.6 5.0 13 5
Kalpataru Projects ADD 1,171 1,400 20 200 2.3 160 51 80 102 23 15 11 3.2 2.6 2.2 11 8 7 15 20 21 0.4 0.6 0.8 5 3
KEC International REDUCE 939 900 (4) 250 2.9 257 30 48 61 31 20 15 4.3 3.6 3.0 16 12 9 16 20 21 0.3 0.5 0.7 12 5
L&T REDUCE 3,464 3,650 5 4,764 55.0 1,375 117 142 174 30 24 20 5.9 5.1 4.3 21 17 15 21 22 23 0.8 0.9 1.2 85 50
Praj Industries ADD 695 880 27 128 1.5 184 15 18 25 47 38 28 8.2 6.8 5.5 — — — 19 19 22 0.0 0.0 0.0 11 4
Siemens SELL 5,803 5,000 (14) 2,067 23.9 356 81 95 112 72 61 52 11.8 10.3 9.0 55 47 39 18 18 19 0.4 0.4 0.5 33 16
Thermax REDUCE 3,636 4,650 28 433 5.0 113 65 85 100 56 43 36 8.2 7.1 6.1 46 34 28 15 18 18 0.4 0.4 0.4 6 2
Capital goods Cautious 14,457 166.9 41.8 33.3 26.8 6.9 6.0 5.2 27.2 22.1 18.1 16.5 18.1 19.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 363 175
Capital Markets
360 One REDUCE 1,102 1,100 (0) 428 4.9 359 25 31 36 44 36 30 10.7 10.0 9.2 — — — 25 29 32 1.7 2.0 2.4 9 5
ABSL AMC ADD 725 830 15 209 2.4 288 31 35 38 24 21 19 5.9 5.3 4.8 — — — NM NM NM 2.5 2.9 3.1 6 3
Computer Age Management Services REDUCE 4,282 4,200 (2) 211 2.4 49 92 107 125 47 40 34 18.9 15.7 13.1 — — — 45 43 42 1.2 1.5 1.7 23 9
CRISIL SELL 5,806 3,900 (33) 425 4.9 73 99 113 128 59 52 45 17.4 15.5 13.9 — — — 31 32 32 1.1 1.3 1.4 6 2
HDFC AMC REDUCE 3,835 4,200 10 820 9.5 213 113 138 154 34 28 25 10.8 10.0 9.3 — — — 33 38 39 2.4 2.9 3.2 25 14
ICRA SELL 6,007 6,000 (0) 58 0.7 10 181 208 238 33 29 25 5.2 4.9 41.1 — — — 16 17 35 0.2 0.2 0.3 1 0
Kfin Technologies SELL 1,255 920 (27) 216 2.5 171 20 24 27 64 53 46 16.7 14.4 12.4 — — — 22 22 22 0.6 0.8 0.9 19 7
Nippon AMC REDUCE 636 720 13 403 4.7 630 22 25 27 29 26 24 9.7 9.4 9.0 — — — 34 37 39 3.1 3.5 3.8 10 5
UTI AMC REDUCE 1,184 1,300 10 151 1.7 127 62 56 60 19 21 20 3.3 3.2 3.1 — — — 18 16 16 4.2 3.8 4.1 5 2
Capital Markets Cautious 2,921 33.7 36.1 31.3 28.0 9.9 9.2 8.8 28 29 31 1.8 2.1 2.4 103 302
Commercial & Professional Services
SIS REDUCE 336 405 21 48 0.6 147 18 22 24 19 15 14 1.8 1.6 1.5 9 8 7 10 11 11 — — — 0 0
TeamLease Services SELL 2,659 2,800 5 45 0.5 17 89 104 133 30 26 20 4.7 4.0 3.3 24 19 15 17.1 16.9 18.0 — — — 1 1
Commercial & Professional Services Cautious 93 1.1 22.5 18.9 16.3 2.6 2.3 2.0 12.2 10.4 9.2 11.4 12.0 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 1
Commodity Chemicals
Asian Paints REDUCE 2,253 2,400 7 2,161 24.9 959 45 49 55 50 46 41 10.3 9.3 8.4 34 31 28 22 21 21 1.0 1.1 1.3 43 24
Berger Paints SELL 451 490 9 526 6.1 1166 10 11 12 44 41 38 8.6 7.6 6.9 28 27 25 21 20 19 0.8 1.0 1.2 6 3
Indigo Paints REDUCE 1,252 1,300 4 60 0.7 48 31 33 38 41 38 33 5.8 5.2 4.6 23 22 19 15 14 15 0.4 0.5 0.7 3 1
Kansai Nerolac REDUCE 246 275 12 199 2.3 808 8 9 10 29 27 25 3.3 3.1 2.9 18 17 16 12 12 12 1.7 1.8 2.0 1 1
Tata Chemicals SELL 950 840 (12) 242 2.8 255 29 34 37 33 28 26 1.1 1.0 1.0 8 7 7 3 4 4 1.6 1.6 1.6 23 8
Commodity Chemicals Cautious 3,187 36.8 45.2 41.2 37.3 5.6 5.2 4.9 26.3 24.1 22.1 12.4 12.7 13.1 1.0 1.1 1.3 76 36
Construction Materials
ACC REDUCE 1,859 2,100 13 349 4.0 188 84 111 125 22 17 15 2.0 1.8 1.7 11 8 7 9 11 12 0.9 1.2 1.3 9 4
Ambuja Cements SELL 493 405 (18) 1,215 14.0 2,463 14 17 20 36 29 24 2.3 2.2 2.0 18 14 11 7 8 9 0.4 0.5 0.5 22 11
Dalmia Bharat REDUCE 1,702 1,750 3 319 3.7 187 46 61 85 37 28 20 1.9 1.8 1.6 13 11 9 5 6 9 0.4 0.5 0.8 6 3
Grasim Industries REDUCE 2,288 2,435 6 1,565 18.1 680 76 103 128 30 22 18 1.7 1.6 1.5 12 10 8 6 7 8 0.5 0.6 0.6 18 9
J K Cement SELL 4,364 2,475 (43) 337 3.9 77 84 107 127 52 41 34 5.7 5.1 4.5 20 17 15 12 13 14 0.3 0.3 0.3 6 3
Nuvoco Vistas Corp. ADD 342 355 4 122 1.4 357 (2) 5 7 NM 68 47 1.4 1.3 1.3 12 10 9 NM 2 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 1
Shree Cement SELL 24,875 17,550 (29) 897 10.4 36 262 432 438 95 58 57 4.2 4.0 3.8 24 19 16 5 7 7 0.2 0.3 0.3 10 5
The Ramco Cements SELL 881 600 (32) 208 2.4 236 9 21 30 94 41 30 2.7 2.5 2.3 18 15 12 3 6 8 0.1 0.2 0.3 8 3
UltraTech Cement SELL 10,615 6,900 (35) 3,065 35.4 289 218 301 366 49 35 29 4.7 4.3 3.9 26 20 17 10 13 14 0.6 0.8 1.0 37 21
Construction Materials Cautious 8,078 93.2 42.4 30.9 25.5 2.8 2.6 2.4 16.8 13.5 11.5 6.6 8.4 9.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 116 58

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
52

Kotak Institutional Equities: Valuation summary of KIE Universe stocks


Price (Rs) Fair Value Upside Mkt cap. O/S shares EPS (Rs) P/E (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) ADV-3M (US$ mn)
Company Rating 13-Jan-25 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E Traded Delivered
Consumer Durables & Apparel
Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail SELL 260 250 (4) 279 3.2 1,070 (6) (4) (2) NM NM NM 5.7 6.3 6.7 15 12 10 NM NM NM — — — 11 4
Campus Activewear REDUCE 271 290 7 83 1.0 304 4 5 6 68 55 45 10.7 9.2 7.9 34 28 23 17 18 19 — — 0.6 3 1
Cello World ADD 696 880 26 154 1.8 221 16 19 22 44 37 32 7.2 6.5 5.8 27 24 20 21 19 19 0.7 1.0 1.2 1 1
Crompton Greaves Consumer ADD 354 420 19 228 2.6 643 9 12 14 38 30 26 6.8 6.0 5.2 25 21 17 19 21 22 1.1 1.4 1.7 10 5
Eureka Forbes BUY 554 750 35 107 1.2 209 7 10 14 76 56 40 2.6 2.5 2.4 42 32 24 3 5 6 — — — 2 1
Havells India SELL 1,532 1,500 (2) 961 11.1 628 24 29 35 64 53 43 11.5 10.2 8.9 43 35 28 19 20 22 0.6 0.8 0.9 18 10
Page Industries SELL 45,729 37,000 (19) 512 5.9 11 644 768 904 71 60 51 26.3 21.9 18.5 48 41 35 41 40 40 0.8 1.0 1.2 18 9
Polycab SELL 6,252 4,750 (24) 940 10.9 151 125 150 185 50 42 34 9.8 8.3 7.0 34 28 22 21 22 23 0.5 0.6 0.7 26 11
Vedant Fashions REDUCE 1,182 1,010 (15) 287 3.3 243 19 21 24 63 55 48 15.2 12.8 10.8 37 31 26 26 25 24 — — — 3 2
Voltas SELL 1,592 1,150 (28) 527 6.1 331 28 33 41 56 48 39 8.1 7.3 6.4 43 37 31 15 16 17 0.5 0.6 0.8 36 19
Whirlpool SELL 1,595 1,500 (6) 202 2.3 127 29 38 48 55 42 33 5.2 4.8 4.4 31 24 19 9 12 14 0.5 0.6 0.8 4 2
Consumer Durables & Apparel Cautious 4,280 49.4 66.4 52.9 42.2 9.0 8.1 7.2 33.8 27.7 22.9 13.5 15.3 17.0 0.5 0.6 0.8 132 66
Consumer Staples
Britannia Industries ADD 4,927 5,350 9 1,187 13.7 241 89 103 117 55 48 42 27.5 25.6 24.1 38 33 29 52 56 59 1.8 2.1 2.3 23 12
Colgate-Palmolive (India) REDUCE 2,752 2,825 3 749 8.6 272 55 60 66 50 46 42 39.3 37.1 34.8 36 33 30 79 82 86 1.9 2.1 2.3 18 10
Dabur India ADD 511 590 16 905 10.4 1,772 10 12 14 49 42 37 8.5 7.9 7.3 36 32 28 18 20 21 1.3 1.5 1.7 15 9
Godrej Consumer Products ADD 1,159 1,365 18 1,186 13.7 1,023 20 25 28 58 47 41 8.7 8.0 7.3 39 34 30 16 18 19 0.9 1.1 1.3 22 13
Hindustan Unilever ADD 2,451 2,850 16 5,759 66.5 2,350 45 51 56 54 48 44 11.1 10.7 10.3 38 34 31 21 22 24 1.6 1.8 2.0 48 30
Honasa Consumer REDUCE 241 340 41 78 0.9 322 2 4 6 117 54 37 6.5 5.6 4.8 99 38 25 6 11 14 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 3
ITC ADD 439 540 23 5,493 63.4 12,428 17 18 20 26 24 22 7.3 7.0 6.7 20 18 16 26 28 30 3.3 3.6 3.9 74 44
Jyothy Labs SELL 386 410 6 142 1.6 367 10 11 13 37 34 31 7.1 6.5 5.9 27 25 22 20 20 20 1.4 1.6 1.8 5 2
Marico REDUCE 668 640 (4) 866 10.0 1,290 13 14 15 52 48 44 20.9 19.5 18.1 39 35 31 42 42 43 1.6 1.7 1.9 17 9
Nestle India ADD 2,237 2,475 11 2,157 24.9 964 33 37 43 69 60 53 47.4 37.0 31.5 46 40 35 79 69 65 0.9 1.1 1.4 26 17
Sula Vineyards ADD 377 450 19 32 0.4 84 9 11 13 41 35 30 5.2 4.7 4.2 21 18 16 13 14 15 0.6 0.9 1.0 2 1
Tata Consumer Products ADD 965 1,110 15 961 11.1 989 14 19 22 67 52 44 4.9 4.7 4.5 37 30 26 8 9 10 0.9 1.1 1.3 19 10
United Breweries REDUCE 1,944 1,900 (2) 514 5.9 264 21 31 39 93 64 50 11.5 10.6 9.7 55 39 32 13 17 20 0.8 1.2 1.5 5 2
United Spirits ADD 1,484 1,525 3 1,079 12.5 727 19 23 27 78 64 55 13.4 11.8 10.5 52 44 38 18 20 20 0.5 0.6 0.7 13 7
Varun Beverages ADD 575 640 11 1,944 22.4 3,248 8 10 12 71 57 48 20.2 15.5 12.1 42 35 30 32 30 29 0.2 0.2 0.3 40 23
Consumer Staples Attractive 23,050 266.1 45.9 40.4 36.1 10.9 10.2 9.5 32.7 28.6 25.5 24 25 26 1.7 1.9 2.1 331 191
Diversified Financials
Aadhar Housing Finance BUY 406 550 36 175 2.0 427 22 27 34 19 15 12 2.7 2.3 1.9 — — — 17 17 17 — — — 4 2
Aavas Financiers BUY 1,637 1,925 18 130 1.5 79 72 89 108 23 18 15 3.0 2.6 2.2 — — — 14 15 16 — — — 3 2
Aptus Value Housing Finance ADD 271 370 37 135 1.6 499 15 17 20 18 16 13 3.1 2.8 2.4 — — — 18 18 19 1.6 1.8 2.2 5 3
Bajaj Finance ADD 7,151 8,000 12 4,426 51.1 618 260 322 406 28 22 18 4.9 4.1 3.4 — — — 19 20 21 0.5 0.6 0.7 83 41
Bajaj Finserv BUY 1,674 1,930 15 2,673 30.9 1,593 66 81 101 25 21 17 5.6 4.7 3.9 — — — 24 25 26 0.1 0.1 0.1 29 15
Bajaj Housing Finance SELL 112 100 (11) 934 10.8 8,318 3 3 4 43 35 28 4.7 4.1 3.6 — — — 13 13 14 0.0 0.0 0.0 -
Cholamandalam ADD 1,223 1,500 23 1,028 11.9 840 49 61 77 25 20 16 4.4 3.4 2.9 — — — 19 19 20 0.1 0.3 0.5 28 16
Five Star Business Finance ADD 652 890 37 191 2.2 291 35 42 51 18 16 13 3.0 2.5 2.1 — — — 18 18 18 — — — 17 9
Home First Finance BUY 1,014 1,360 34 91 1.0 89 43 54 68 24 19 15 3.6 3.1 2.6 — — — 17 18 19 — 0.5 0.7 9 4
India Shelter BUY 647 850 31 70 0.8 107 36 40 48 18 16 13 2.6 2.2 1.9 — — — 15 15 15 — — — 1 1
L&T Finance ADD 131 160 22 326 3.8 2,480 11 14 16 12 10 8 1.3 1.2 1.1 — — — 11 13 14 2.5 3.1 3.8 14 6
LIC Housing Finance BUY 534 750 41 294 3.4 550 94 99 102 6 5 5 0.8 0.7 0.7 — — — 15 14 13 2.8 3.0 3.1 11 5
Mahindra & Mahindra Financial ADD 263 320 22 325 3.8 1,234 18 22 25 15 12 10 1.6 1.5 1.3 — — — 12 13 13 1.4 1.6 1.9 7 3
Muthoot Finance BUY 2,092 2,175 4 840 9.7 401 133 159 183 16 13 11 3.0 2.5 2.2 — — — 20 21 20 1.5 1.8 2.1 12 6
SBFC ADD 83 90 8 90 1.0 1,107 3 4 5 27 21 17 3.2 2.8 2.4 — — — 12 13 14 — — — 2 1
Shriram Finance BUY 521 730 40 980 11.3 1,879 54 55 67 10 10 8 1.8 1.5 1.3 — — — 16 17 18 1.6 1.6 1.9 47 25
Diversified Financials Attractive 12,707 146.7 20.2 17.1 14.0 3.3 2.9 2.4 16.6 16.7 17.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 272 138

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
53

Kotak Institutional Equities: Valuation summary of KIE Universe stocks


Price (Rs) Fair Value Upside Mkt cap. O/S shares EPS (Rs) P/E (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) ADV-3M (US$ mn)
Company Rating 13-Jan-25 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E Traded Delivered
Electric Utilities
CESC SELL 152 145 (5) 202 2.3 1,326 10 12 13 15 12 11 1.6 1.5 1.4 8 7 6 12 13 13 3.0 3.1 3.3 10 4
JSW Energy SELL 518 350 (32) 905 10.4 1,744 16 21 25 32 25 21 3.2 2.9 2.5 14 12 10 11 12 13 0.4 0.4 0.4 24 10
NHPC SELL 73 70 (4) 729 8.4 10,045 4 6 7 18 13 10 1.8 1.6 1.5 19 9 7 10 14 15 2.2 3.2 4.0 23 10
NTPC SELL 298 310 4 2,892 33.4 9,895 22 23 25 13.4 12.9 12 1.6 1.4 1.3 9 8 8 12 12 12 2.7 2.7 2.8 59 33
Power Grid SELL 288 280 (3) 2,675 30.9 9,301 18 20 21 16.1 14.2 13 2.9 2.7 2.5 9 8 8 18 20 19 4.2 4.4 4.7 49 30
Tata Power SELL 340 330 (3) 1,086 12.5 3,196 15 17 20 23 20 17 2.9 2.6 2.2 13 11 10 14 14 14 — — — 55 21
Electric Utilities Cautious 8,488 98.0 16.5 14.6 13.3 2.1 1.9 1.8 10.1 8.8 8.1 12.8 13.3 13.4 2.6 2.7 2.9 219 108
Electronic Manufacturing Services
Amber Enterprises ADD 7,079 6,000 (15) 239 2.8 34 80 123 160 88 57 44 10.2 8.6 7.2 35 27 22 12 16 18 — — — 76 17
Avalon Technologies SELL 846 520 (39) 56 0.6 65 9 14 21 93 58 41 9.1 7.9 6.6 55 37 27 10 14 18 — — — 9 3
Cyient DLM SELL 592 620 5 47 0.5 79 12 20 26 48 30 23 4.7 4.0 3.4 27 19 15 10 13 15 — — — 2 1
Dixon Technologies SELL 15,835 8,430 (47) 951 11.0 60 176 195 234 90.2 81.1 68 34.1 23.6 17.3 66 48 40 39 34 30 — — — 104 29
Kaynes Technology ADD 6,145 5,730 (7) 393 4.5 58 50 75 106 122.7 82.3 58 12.7 10.9 9.0 86 55 38 12 16 19 — — — 41 11
Syrma SGS Technology REDUCE 529 450 (15) 94 1.1 176 8 12 17 63 43 31 5.3 4.7 4.1 32 23 17 8 11 14 — — — 13 5
Electronic Manufacturing Services Cautious 1,781 20.6 98.3 68.8 53.3 15.8 12.8 10.3 56.1 40.4 31.7 16.0 18.6 19.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 245 67
Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
Bayer Cropscience ADD 5,134 5,950 16 231 2.7 45 135 204 249 38 25 21 7.8 7.5 7.1 28 19 15 21 30 35 2.2 3.4 4.2 2 1
Godrej Agrovet ADD 707 820 16 136 1.6 192 23 27 35 31 26 20 4.5 4.1 3.6 18 15 12 15 16 19 1.6 2.0 2.4 1.5 0.8
Rallis India SELL 278 230 (17) 54 0.6 195 8 10 12 33 28 23 2.8 2.6 2.4 14— 13— 11— 9 10 11 1.1 1.3 1.4 4 2
UPL SELL 534 430 (19) 424 4.9 751 4 21 34 136 26 16 1.6 1.5 1.4 9 7 6 2 6 9 0.2 0.2 0.2 15 6
Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals Cautious 845 9.8 51.1 25.7 18.1 2.6 2.4 2.2 11.8 9.4 7.9 5.0 9.3 12.1 1.0 1.4 1.7 23 10
Gas Utilities
GAIL (India) SELL 172 150 (13) 1,132 13.1 6,575 14 13 13 12 13 13 1.6 1.5 1.5 9 9 9 14 12 11 3.5 3.8 4.1 31 15
Indraprastha Gas SELL 406 290 (29) 284 3.3 700 21 24 24 19 17 17 3.2 3.0 2.8 16 14 13 17 18 17 2.6 2.7 2.8 27 11
Mahanagar Gas SELL 1,228 1,000 (19) 121 1.4 99 89 89 90 14 14 14 2.1 1.9 1.8 9 8 8 16 15 13 2.5 2.5 2.6 14 6
Petronet LNG SELL 315 235 (25) 472 5.5 1,500 29 27 28 11 12 11 2.3 2.0 1.8 7 8 8 23 18 17 1.6 0.8 1.6 11 6
Gas Utilities Cautious 2,201 25.4 12.8 13.8 13.6 1.9 1.8 1.6 9.0 9.5 9.1 14.9 12.7 12.1 2.7 2.7 3.1 88 39
Health Care Services
Apollo Hospitals ADD 6,840 8,100 18 983 11.4 144 101 140 188 68 49 36 12.0 9.8 7.9 33 26 20 19 22 24 0.2 0.2 0.2 28 15
Dr Lal Pathlabs ADD 2,850 3,250 14 238 2.7 84 52 59 68 55 48 42 11.6 10.4 9.3 32 28 24 22 23 24 1.0 1.1 1.3 8 3
Global Health ADD 1,027 1,175 14 276 3.2 268 19 22 28 55 46 37 8.3 7.2 6.2 30 25 20 16 17 18 0.3 0.3 0.4 4 3
KIMS ADD 618 580 (6) 247 2.9 400 8 10 14 80 64 44 11.6 9.8 8.0 34 28 21 16 17 20 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 2
Max Healthcare REDUCE 1,082 975 (10) 1,052 12.1 971 15 21 27 73 51 40 9.9 8.4 7.0 47 35 28 14 18 19 0.1 0.1 0.1 23 14
Metropolis Healthcare REDUCE 1,885 2,080 10 97 1.1 51 34 43 54 55 43 35 7.8 7.0 6.2 27 22 18 15 17 19 0.4 0.5 0.9 4 1
Narayana Hrudayalaya ADD 1,271 1,400 10 260 3.0 204 38 46 54 34 27 23 7.1 5.6 4.6 22 17 15 24 23 21 — — — 5 3
Rainbow Children's Medicare REDUCE 1,528 1,400 (8) 155 1.8 102 23 30 36 65 52 43 10.7 9.1 7.8 31 26 22 18 19 20 0.3 0.3 0.4 5 2
Health Care Services Neutral 3,554 41.0 62.9 47.0 36.9 9.5 8.1 6.7 33.8 26.8 21.4 15.1 17.1 18.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 90 47

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
54

Kotak Institutional Equities: Valuation summary of KIE Universe stocks

Price (Rs) Fair Value Upside Mkt cap. O/S shares EPS (Rs) P/E (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) ADV-3M (US$ mn)
Company Rating 13-Jan-25 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E Traded Delivered
Hotels & Restaurants
Chalet Hotels ADD 860 930 8 188 2.2 218 8 29 46 111 30 19 6.3 5.2 4.1 26 18 12 7 19 25 (0.2) (0.2) (0.3) 6 2
Devyani International ADD 178 184 4 214 2.5 1,204 (0) 0 1 NM 359 169 20.4 19.8 18.7 27 22 19 NM 6 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 6 3
Indian Hotels ADD 756 800 6 1,076 12.4 1,423 12 16 20 61 47 38 9.6 8.2 6.9 35 27 22 17 19 20 0.3 0.3 0.4 36 19
Jubilant Foodworks REDUCE 707 690 (2) 466 5.4 660 4 6 7 191 121 96 19.6 17.5 15.3 39 32 27 11 15 17 0.2 0.2 0.3 17 7
Lemon Tree Hotels REDUCE 137 118 (14) 108 1.2 792 2 4 5 55 39 27 10.5 9.3 8.0 20 16 12 20 25 32 1.0 1.2 1.5 7 3
Restaurant Brands Asia REDUCE 75 95 26 38 0.4 495 (2) (1) (1) NM NM NM 2.1 2.2 2.2 14 11 9 NM NM NM — — — 1 1
Samhi Hotels BUY 180 265 47 40 0.5 220 6 9 13 31 21 14 3.4 3.0 2.5 13 11 9 11 15 20 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 2
Sapphire Foods ADD 321 380 18 103 1.2 318 1 2 3 475 153 93 7.5 7.1 6.6 21 17 14 2 5 7 — — — 2 1
Westlife Foodworld REDUCE 753 700 (7) 117 1.4 156 1 5 8 1,246 158 96 19.7 17.9 15.6 38 27 22 2 12 17 — — — 2 1
Hotels & Restaurants Attractive 2,350 27.1 97.2 59.9 44.0 10.0 8.8 7.5 30.0 23.3 18.8 10.3 14.7 17.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 81 39
Insurance
HDFC Life Insurance BUY 600 850 42 1,291 14.9 2,020 8 10 11 71 61 53 8.3 7.9 7.4 — — — 12 13 14 0.4 0.4 0.5 27 15
ICICI Lombard ADD 1,837 2,075 13 910 10.5 493 52 60 70 36 31 26 6.4 5.4 4.6 — — — 19 19 19 0.4 0.5 0.6 14 9
ICICI Prudential Life BUY 636 850 34 920 10.6 1,441 6 7 8 99 88 81 8.0 7.4 6.9 — — — 8 9 9 0.5 0.5 0.5 8 4
LIC BUY 809 1,250 55 5,117 59.1 6,325 67 70 72 12 12 11 4.5 3.5 2.8 — — — 43 34 28 — — — 14 6
Max Financial Services ADD 1,069 1,350 26 369 4.3 345 2 2 3 573 499 426 — — — — — — 1 1 1 — — — 12 6
PB Fintech REDUCE 1,697 1,500 (12) 779 9.0 456 6 13 21 271 133 82 — — — 4 9 12 — — — 30 16
SBI Life Insurance ADD 1,467 1,900 29 1,470 17.0 1,005 24 27 29 62 55 51 8.9 7.8 6.9 — — — 15 15 14 0.3 0.3 0.3 32 20
Star Health and Allied Insurance REDUCE 464 500 8 273 3.1 585 13 17 25 35 28 19 3.8 3.3 2.8 — — — 12 13 16 — — — 7 4
Insurance Attractive 11,129 128.5 21.8 20.4 19.2 5.8 4.8 4.0 27 23 21 0.1 0.1 0.1 144 80
Internet Software & Services
Brainbees Solutions ADD 502 630 25 261 3.0 523.4 (6) (3) 2 NM NM 250 5.4 5.3 5.1 214 70 33 NM NM 2.1 — — — 5 2
Cartrade Tech SELL 1,418 700 (51) 67 0.8 51.5 17 20 23 85 72 62 3.4 3.2 3.1 54 44 37 4.1 4.6 5.1 — — — 6 2
FSN E-commerce Ventures SELL 165 170 3 470 5.4 2,875.0 0 1 2 465 138 79 34.7 27.7 20.5 100 59 40 7.8 22 30 — — — 16 8
Indiamart REDUCE 2,243 2,350 5 135 1.6 59.9 88 96 109 25 23 21 6.3 5.2 4.4 19 16 13 27 24 23 1.1 1.1 1.1 11 5
Info Edge ADD 7,253 8,350 15 940 10.8 129.1 77 93 110 94 78 66 3.6 3.5 3.3 80 66 55 3.9 4.5 5.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 27 14
Just Dial BUY 899 1,330 48 76 0.9 85.0 67 66 72 13 14 13 1.7 1.5 1.3 7 5 3 13.2 11.5 11.2 — — — 4 2
Zomato BUY 227 305 34 2,192 25.3 9,131 1 2 4 225 94 62 6.8 6.2 5.6 206 87 45 3.6 6.9 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 184 83
Internet Software & Services Attractive 4,141 47.8 142 85 60 5.8 5.4 4.9 104 64 41 4.1 6.3 8.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 253 114
IT Services
Coforge ADD 8,706 9,300 7 582 6.7 67 144 200 256 60 44 34 9.6 8.6 7.8 30 23 18 20 21 24 0.9 1.1 1.6 48 22
Cyient BUY 1,682 2,050 22 187 2.2 111 66 82 92 25 20 18 3.8 3.4 3.1 14 12 10 15 17 18 2.1 2.6 3.3 7 4
HCL Technologies REDUCE 1,989 1,760 (12) 5,399 62.3 2,716 64 69 77 31 29 26 7.6 7.1 6.6 20 18 17 25 25 26 2.8 2.9 3.0 56 35
Indegene BUY 601 730 21 144 1.7 240 17 21 25 36 29 24 5.6 4.7 3.9 23 19 15 20 18 18 0.0 0.0 0.0 7 4
Infosys BUY 1,962 2,200 12 8,148 94.1 4,151 63 72 80 31 27 25 8.6 8.0 7.6 20 18 16 29 30 32 2.4 2.8 3.5 122 73
KPIT Technologies SELL 1,310 1,150 (12) 359 4.1 273 27 34 43 48 38 31 12.9 10.4 8.4 28 22 18 30 30 30 0.7 0.9 1.1 24 11
L&T Technology Services SELL 4,853 4,450 (8) 514 5.9 106 123 145 165 39 33 29 8.5 7.4 6.5 25 22 19 23 24 24 1.0 1.1 1.3 8 3
LTIMindtree ADD 6,031 6,750 12 1,787 20.6 296 163 203 233 37 30 26 7.9 6.9 6.1 25 21 18 23 25 25 1.3 1.5 1.8 23 11
Mphasis SELL 2,778 2,750 (1) 527 6.1 189 90 99 116 31 28 24 5.7 5.3 4.9 20 18 15 19 20 21 2.3 2.5 2.5 22 11
Persistent Systems SELL 6,003 4,600 (23) 936 10.8 155 87 107 128 69 56 47 15.9 13.4 11.3 46 38 31 25 26 26 0.5 0.6 0.7 33 15
RateGain REDUCE 685 800 17 81 0.9 119 17 22 26 39 32 27 4.9 4.2 3.6 32 24 20 13 14 15 — — — 3 2
Tata Elxsi SELL 5,942 5,400 (9) 370 4.3 62 129 145 172 46 41 35 13.3 12.1 10.9 33 29 24 31 31 33 1.4 1.7 2.0 18 7
Tata Technologies SELL 795 650 (18) 322 3.7 406 17 20 24 48 40 34 9.1 8.1 7.2 32 27 22 20 22 23 1.0 1.3 1.5 11 5
TCS ADD 4,291 4,550 6 15,526 179.2 3,619 135 147 165 32 29 26 15.5 14.2 13.0 22 20 18 51 51 52 2.7 2.8 3.2 115 69
Tech Mahindra ADD 1,656 1,850 12 1,464 16.9 890 51 66 84 33 25 20 5.4 5.1 4.8 19 15 12 17 21 25 2.3 2.4 3.1 39 21
Wipro SELL 292 250 (14) 3,055 35.3 10,472 12 13 14 24 22 21 3.5 3.2 3.0 15 14 13 16 15 15 0.2 2.1 2.6 49 22
IT Services Neutral 39,400 454.8 32.0 28.5 25.3 8.8 8.1 7.5 21.2 19.0 16.8 27.5 28.3 29.5 2.1 2.5 2.9 585 292

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
55

Kotak Institutional Equities: Valuation summary of KIE Universe stocks

Price (Rs) Fair Value Upside Mkt cap. O/S shares EPS (Rs) P/E (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) ADV-3M (US$ mn)
Company Rating 13-Jan-25 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E Traded Delivered
Media
PVR INOX ADD 1,078 1,700 58 106 1.2 98 13 42 56 81 25 19 1.2 1.2 1.1 15 10 8 2 5 6 0.1 0.4 0.5 11 4
Sun TV Network REDUCE 645 730 13 254 2.9 394 45 50 54 14 13 12 2.2 2.0 1.8 10 8 8 16 16 16 3.0 3.4 3.8 3 1
Zee Entertainment Enterprises REDUCE 119 138 16 114 1.3 960 8 10 11 15 12 11 1.0 1.0 0.9 7 6 6 7 8 9 3.4 3.8 4.2 19 7
Media Neutral 475 5.5 17.5 14.2 12.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 10.1 8.1 7.1 8.6 10.0 10.5 2.4 2.8 3.1 34 12
Metals & Mining
Gravita India ADD 2,036 2,500 23 150 1.7 69 44 58 72 46 35 28 12.8 9.8 7.8 36.1 28.5 23.2 32 31 31 0.3 0.4 0.9 8 4
Hindalco Industries REDUCE 564 665 18 1,267 14.6 2,220 66 58 62 9 10 9 1.0 1.0 0.9 4.9 5.1 4.9 13 10 10 1.2 1.0 1.1 44 22
Hindustan Zinc SELL 419 380 (9) 1,772 20.5 4,225 25 26 26 17 16 16 13.0 13.0 13.0 9.9 9.6 9.4 74 79 79 6.9 6.1 6.1 13 7
Jindal Steel and Power BUY 877 1,160 32 894 10.3 1,020 46 71 103 19 12 9 1.8 1.6 1.4 9.9 7.2 5.2 10 14 17 0.3 0.4 0.6 21 9
JSW Steel REDUCE 884 925 5 2,161 24.9 2,445 36 65 84 25 14 11 2.5 2.2 1.9 10.3 7.7 6.3 11 17 19 0.6 1.1 1.4 24 10
National Aluminium Co. REDUCE 192 250 30 352 4.1 1,837 25 21 22 8 9 9 2.0 1.8 1.6 4.5 5.3 4.7 29 21 19 5.3 4.3 4.6 56 17
NMDC SELL 60 70 17 528 6.1 8,792 8 8 7 8 8 8 1.8 1.6 1.4 4.8 4.8 5.1 25 21 17 5.3 5.2 4.7 31 13
SAIL SELL 100 55 (45) 413 4.8 4,130 2 4 4 42 28 26 0.7 0.7 0.7 8.7 8.3 8.4 2 3 3 0.7 1.1 1.1 26 8
Tata Steel SELL 123 135 10 1,535 17.7 12,486 5 11 14 26 11 9 1.6 1.4 1.3 8.7 6.2 5.7 6 14 15 1.3 2.3 2.8 60 23
Vedanta SELL 414 430 4 1,618 18.7 3,913 31 40 44 13 10 9 4.3 3.8 3.3 5.3 4.5 4.2 36 38 37 8.5 6.5 6.8 53 22
Metals & Mining Cautious 10,690 123.4 15.3 12.0 10.5 2.1 1.9 1.7 7.4 6.3 5.7 13.8 15.8 16.2 3.4 3.2 3.4 335 130
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
BPCL SELL 265 265 (0) 1,151 13.3 4,273 22 29 28 12 9 9 1.4 1.3 1.2 6.5 5.5 5.7 12 15 13 2.8 3.7 3.6 31 14
Coal India SELL 363 420 16 2,236 25.8 6,163 52 53 54 7 7 7 2.2 1.9 1.7 6.2 5.3 4.7 35 30 27 6.9 6.9 6.9 39 19
HPCL SELL 364 200 (45) 775 9.0 2,128 16 35 34 22 10 11 1.8 1.6 1.4 13.4 8.9 8.9 8 16 14 1.3 2.9 2.8 28 12
IOCL SELL 122 100 (18) 1,723 19.9 14,121 8 15 14 14 8 9 0.9 0.9 0.8 7.3 5.1 5.2 7 11 10 3.1 5.0 4.9 27 12
Oil India SELL 452 360 (20) 735 8.5 1,627 45 51 50 10 9 9 1.5 1.4 1.2 7.4 6.3 6.1 16 16 14 3.2 4.0 3.9 19 9
ONGC ADD 256 285 11 3,217 37.1 12,580 40 46 46 6 6 6 0.9 0.8 0.7 4.2 3.3 3.3 14 15 13 4.9 5.1 4.9 43 21
Reliance Industries ADD 1,240 1,405 13 16,779 193.7 13,532 51 62 71 24 20 18 2.0 1.8 1.6 11.6 9.6 8.0 8 9 10 — 0.4 0.5 226 138
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels Neutral 26,617 307.2 14.5 11.9 11.3 1.6 1.4 1.3 8.5 6.8 6.2 10.9 12.1 11.6 1.9 2.2 2.1 414 224
Pharmaceuticals
Alivus Life Sciences BUY 989 1,200 21 121 1.4 123 39 47 53 26 21 19 4.8 4.3 3.8 17 14 13 20 22 21 2.3 2.4 2.5 2 1
Aurobindo Pharma SELL 1,161 1,225 5 675 7.8 586 63 74 79 18 16 15 2.2 2.0 1.8 10 9 8 12 13 12 1.6 1.9 2.3 16 8
Biocon REDUCE 365 350 (4) 438 5.1 1,202 1 11 15 408 34 25 1.7 1.7 1.6 17 13 11 0 5 7 1.0 1.0 1.4 15 5
Blue Jet Healthcare ADD 570 550 (4) 99 1.1 173 12 16 21 48 35 28 9.6 7.6 6.1 36 24 19 22 24 24 0.2 0.2 0.3 2 1
Cipla BUY 1,439 1,725 20 1,162 13.4 806 59 64 64 25 22 23 3.8 3.4 3.0 16 14 14 16 16 14 0.9 1.0 1.0 41 24
Concord Biotech ADD 2,267 2,050 (10) 237 2.7 105 35 47 60 66 48 38 13.2 11.0 9.0 46 35 28 22 25 24 0.4 0.5 0.7 3 1
Divis Laboratories SELL 5,733 4,000 (30) 1,522 17.6 265 79 98 124 72 59 46 10.3 9.4 8.4 52 42 33 15 17 19 0.6 0.8 0.9 36 20
Dr Reddy's Laboratories REDUCE 1,335 1,295 (3) 1,114 12.9 832 68 70 62 20 19 22 3.4 2.9 2.6 12 12 12 19 16 12 0.7 0.8 0.8 31 18
Emcure Pharmaceuticals BUY 1,318 1,680 27 250 2.9 189 39 49 59 34 27 23 5.8 5.0 4.3 17 14 12 20 20 20 0.7 0.9 1.1 2
Gland Pharma REDUCE 1,695 1,625 (4) 279 3.2 164 49 63 77 35 27 22 3.0 2.9 2.6 19 15 13 9 11 13 1.4 1.5 1.7 6 3
JB Chemicals & Pharma BUY 1,761 2,325 32 274 3.2 157 44 55 63 40 32 28 8.0 6.7 5.6 25 21 18 22 23 22 0.6 0.6 0.7 4 3
Laurus Labs SELL 559 370 (34) 301 3.5 536 6 9 12 97 60 45 6.8 6.1 5.4 32 24 20 7 11 13 - - - 16 7
Lupin ADD 2,154 2,385 11 983 11.3 455 67 85 81 32 25 27 5.8 4.9 4.2 19 15 15 20 21 17 0.5 0.7 0.7 26 14
Mankind Pharma ADD 2,596 2,855 10 1,071 12.4 401 58 71 86 45 37 30 9.4 7.8 6.5 35 29 24 23 23 24 0.5 0.7 0.8 14 7
Sun Pharmaceuticals ADD 1,747 2,045 17 4,191 48.4 2,399 48 57 66 36 30 26 5.7 5.0 4.3 26 22 19 17 18 18 0.6 0.7 0.8 40 25
Torrent Pharmaceuticals REDUCE 3,235 3,300 2 1,095 12.6 338 58 74 91 56 44 36 13.2 10.7 8.7 29 25 21 26 27 27 0.5 0.5 0.6 20 11
Pharmaceuticals Neutral 13,813 159.5 35.6 29.5 26.7 5.1 4.5 4.0 21.9 18.5 16.7 14.3 15.3 14.9 0.5 0.6 0.7 275 145

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

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56

Kotak Institutional Equities: Valuation summary of KIE Universe stocks

Price (Rs) Fair Value Upside Mkt cap. O/S shares EPS (Rs) P/E (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) ADV-3M (US$ mn)
Company Rating 13-Jan-25 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E Traded Delivered
Real Estate
Brigade Enterprises BUY 1,063 1,320 24 260 3.0 244 26 34 48 40 32 22 4.5 4.0 3.4 19 14 10 14 13 17 0.2 0.2 0.2 4 2
Brookfield India Real Estate Trust ADD 284 330 16 173 2.0 480 3 7 10 84 41 28 1.3 1.4 1.5 17 15 13 1 3 4 6.6 7.1 7.6 1 1
DLF BUY 711 960 35 1,759 20.3 2,475 17 22 31 43 32 23 4.2 3.8 3.4 86 41 29 10 12 16 0.8 1.0 1.1 31 13
Embassy Office Parks REIT ADD 370 425 — 351 4.1 948 25 12 16 15 30 23 1.5 1.6 1.6 15 13 12 10 5 7 6.2 6.7 7.2 3 3
Godrej Properties SELL 2,249 2,245 (0) 677 7.8 278 65 52 95 35 43 24 5.3 4.7 3.9 415 166 53 17 12 18 — — — 26 11
Macrotech Developers ADD 1,165 1,340 15 1,162 13.4 995 26 41 43 45 28 27 5.8 4.8 4.1 30 20 19 14 19 16 — — — 23 10
Mindspace REIT ADD 369 410 11 219 2.5 593 11 14 18 34 26 20 1.5 1.6 1.6 15 14 12 4 6 8 5.8 6.4 6.7 5 4
Nexus Select Trust ADD 137 155 13 208 2.4 1,515 4 5 6 34 28 24 1.5 1.5 1.6 16 15 14 4 5 6 6.0 6.6 7.2 1 1
Oberoi Realty REDUCE 2,013 1,825 (9) 732 8.5 364 56 86 120 36 23 17 4.6 3.8 3.1 25 16 11 14 18 21 0.5 0.6 0.7 34 16
Phoenix Mills REDUCE 1,529 1,465 (4) 547 6.3 357 35 44 46 44 34 33 5.2 4.5 4.0 22 18 16 12 14 13 0.2 0.2 0.2 14 7
Prestige Estates Projects ADD 1,427 1,830 28 615 7.1 408 22 26 47 64 55 30 3.4 3.4 3.1 22 18 12 6 6 11 0.1 0.2 0.2 14 7
Signature Global BUY 1,188 1,570 32 167 1.9 141 32 74 164 37 16 7 15.5 7.9 3.8 36 11 5 53 65 71 — — — 9 2
Sobha REDUCE 1,273 1,500 18 128 1.5 107 14 38 55 90 33 23 2.9 2.7 2.5 35 15 9 4 9 11 0.3 0.3 0.4 4 1
Sunteck Realty BUY 448 670 50 66 0.8 140 16 39 52 28 11 9 1.9 1.6 1.4 21 9 6 7 15 17 0.2 0.2 0.2 2 1
Real Estate Attractive 7,064 81.5 39.4 31.1 22.5 3.6 3.4 3.0 29.4 20.5 15.5 9.2 10.8 13.5 1.1 1.2 1.3 170 79
Renewable Energy
Premier Energies SELL 1,096 770 (30) 494 5.7 451 16 27 35 67 41 31 17.2 12.1 8.7 35 22 16 42 35 33 — — — - #N/A
Waaree Energies SELL 2,487 2,550 3 715 8.2 288 59 111 195 42 22 13 7.4 5.7 4.0 28 15 10 24 29 37 — — — - #N/A
Renewable Energy - 7,558 14.0 51.4 27.3 16.8 9.9 7.3 5.1 30.4 17.5 11.7 19.3 27 30 0.0 0.0 0.0 - #N/A
Retailing
Avenue Supermarts SELL 3,507 3,450 (2) 2,282 26.3 651 44 52 64 79 67 55 10.6 9.1 7.8 49 41 34 14 15 15 — — — 41 24
Metro Brands REDUCE 1,189 1,100 (7) 323 3.7 272 14 17 21 88 68 56 15.4 13.4 11.5 42 34 29 19 21 22 — 0.5 0.6 1 1
Titan Company REDUCE 3,383 3,275 (3) 3,003 34.7 888 42 52 62 80 66 55 26.2 20.5 16.3 51 43 37 36 35 33 0.4 0.5 0.6 45 24
Trent ADD 6,224 6,800 9 2,213 25.5 356 54 76 108 116 82 58 37.3 25.6 17.7 78 56 40 38 37 36 — — — 71 34
Retailing Neutral 5,609 90.3 88.1 70.2 55.6 19.0 15.4 12.4 55.5 45.0 36.5 22 22 22 0.2 0.2 0.2 158 83
Specialty Chemicals
Aarti Industries SELL 409 380 (7) 148 1.7 363 9 11 18 44 36 23 2.7 2.5 2.3 18 15 12 6 7 10 0.2 0.4 0.6 11 4
Aether Industries REDUCE 823 810 (2) 109 1.3 133 12 15 19 71 54 43 4.9 4.5 4.1 50 35 27 7 9 10 - - 0.0 1 1
Atul SELL 6,615 5,270 (20) 195 2.2 29 189 232 274 35 28 24 3.5 3.2 2.9 17 15 13 10 12 13 0.5 0.7 0.8 5 2
Castrol India SELL 180 190 6 178 2.1 989 9 11 11 19 17 16 7.9 7.2 6.6 13 12 11 42 44 44 4.5 4.7 5.0 9 3
Clean Science & Technology ADD 1,376 1,540 12 146 1.7 106 26 36 50 53 38 27 10.3 8.5 6.9 36 27 20 21 24 28 0.4 0.6 0.8 3 2
Deepak Nitrite SELL 2,328 1,990 (15) 318 3.7 136 59 69 81 40 34 29 5.7 5.0 4.3 28 25 22 15 16 16 0.3 0.3 0.3 9 3
Navin Fluorine REDUCE 3,618 3,310 (9) 179 2.1 50 50 86 119 72 42 30 7.0 6.2 5.3 42 27 20 10 16 19 0.3 0.5 0.7 9 4
Neogen Chemicals ADD 1,947 2,070 6 51 0.6 26 23 51 61 84 38 32 6.3 5.5 4.8 39 24 15 8 16 16 0.2 0.4 0.4 1 1
Pidilite Industries ADD 2,797 3,315 19 1,423 16.4 509 43 49 56 66 57 50 15.1 13.6 12.4 45 39 35 24 25 26 0.8 1.1 1.3 12 7
PI Industries REDUCE 3,400 4,000 18 516 6.0 152 120 131 147 28 26 23 5.0 4.3 3.7 21 19 16 19 18 17 0.4 0.6 0.6 13 7
S H Kelkar and Company BUY 215 370 72 30 0.3 138 10 12 17 21 18 13 2.3 2.1 1.8 10 9 7 11 12 15 1.2 1.1 1.5 1 1
SRF ADD 2,516 2,290 (9) 746 8.6 296 38 57 81 65 44 31 6.1 5.5 4.8 30 23 18 10 13 16 0.5 0.5 0.6 18 9
Vinati Organics SELL 1,650 1,200 (27) 171 2.0 104 37 46 57 45 36 29 6.1 5.4 4.6 30 24 19 15 16 17 0.3 0.4 0.5 1 1
Specialty Chemicals Neutral 4,210 48.6 46.7 38.1 31.2 6.8 6.1 5.3 28.9 24.1 20.1 14.5 15.9 17.1 0.7 0.9 1.0 94 44

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

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57

Kotak Institutional Equities: Valuation summary of KIE Universe stocks

Price (Rs) Fair Value Upside Mkt cap. O/S shares EPS (Rs) P/E (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) ADV-3M (US$ mn)
Company Rating 13-Jan-25 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E Traded Delivered
Telecommunication Services
Bharti Airtel ADD 1,597 1,720 8 9,560 110.4 5,753 40 53 68 40 30 24 10.1 8.0 6.9 12 10 8 27 30 31 0.9 1.4 1.8 102 63
Indus Towers SELL 321 340 6 846 9.8 2,638 32 28 21 10 11 15 2.6 2.1 2.1 4 4 5 29 20 14 0.6 6.2 3.1 33 17
Vodafone Idea SELL 8 7 (10) 539 6.2 69,645 (4) (3) (3) NM NM NM NM NM NM 16 14 13 NM NM NM — — — 46 13
Tata Communications SELL 1,632 1,645 1 465 5.4 285 42 63 82 39 26 20 17.8 11.9 8.4 12 10 9 54 55 49 1.0 1.5 2.0 7 3
Telecommunication Services Attractive 11,411 131.7 206.4 76.8 48.2 67 32 25 11.4 9.6 8.3 33 42 52 0.8 1.7 1.8 188 96
Transportation
Adani Ports and SEZ BUY 1,067 1,570 47 2,304 26.6 2,160 48 59 65 22 18 16 3.7 3.2 2.7 15 13 11 18 19 18 0.7 0.8 0.9 67 26
Container Corp. SELL 728 740 2 444 5.1 609 22 27 32 33 27 23 3.6 3.4 3.1 19 17 14 11 13 14 1.4 1.6 2.0 11 5
Delhivery BUY 321 475 48 239 2.8 747 3 5 9 106 66 36 2.5 2.4 2.2 54 29 18 2 4 6 — — — 10 5
Gateway Distriparks ADD 76 103 35 38 0.4 500 5 6 6 17 14 12 1.8 1.7 1.6 11 10 8 11 13 14 2.4 2.7 2.9 1 1
GMR Airports SELL 70 77 10 736 8.5 6,036 (2) (0) 0 NM NM 160 NM NM NM 29 19 18 855 7 NM — — — 14 7
Gujarat Pipavav Port SELL 165 180 9 80 0.9 483 8 10 11 20 17 15 3.2 2.6 2.2 11 10 8 17 17 16 — — — 2 1
InterGlobe Aviation BUY 4,001 5,100 27 1,546 17.8 383 162 242 256 25 17 16 18.7 8.8 3.7 7 5 4 122 72 44 — — — 46 28
JSW Infrastructure SELL 288 240 (17) 604 7.0 2,119 6 7 8 46 39 35 6.7 5.9 24.4 28 25 24 15 16 16 0.5 0.5 0.6 8 4
Transportation Attractive 5,991 69.2 31.3 22.8 20.4 5.7 4.7 3.9 14.4 11.3 9.4 18.2 20 19.0 0.4 0.5 0.6 159 76
KIE universe 294,467 3,399 24.9 21.1 18.5 3.7 3.3 2.9 15.3 12.9 11.4 14.6 15.5 15.8 1.3 1.5 1.7

Notes:
(a) We have used adjusted book values for banking companies.
(b) 2024 means calendar year 2023, similarly for 2025 and 2026 for these particular companies.
(c) Exchange rate (Rs/US$)= 86.6

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

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DISCLAIMERS, DISCLOSURES & LEGAL


Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships
Kotak Institutional Equities Research coverage universe

Percentage of companies covered by Kotak Institutional


70%
Equities, within the specified category.

60%
Percentage of companies within each category for which
50% Kotak Institutional Equities and or its affiliates has
provided investment banking services within the previous
12 months.
40% 37.8%
* The above categories are defined as follows: Buy = We
expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over
28.7%
30% the next 12 months; Add = We expect this stock to deliver
5-15% returns over the next 12 months; Reduce = We
19.6% expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over the next
20%
13.8% 12 months; Sell = We expect this stock to deliver less than
9.5% -5% returns over the next 12 months. Our target prices
10% are also on a 12-month horizon basis. These ratings are
3.3% 1.8% used illustratively to comply with applicable regulations. As
1.5%
of 30/09/2024 Kotak Institutional Equities Investment
0%
BUY ADD REDUCE SELL Research had investment ratings on 275 equity securities.

Source: Kotak Institutional Equities


As of September 30, 2024

Ratings and other definitions/identifiers


Definitions of ratings

BUY. We expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months.
ADD. We expect this stock to deliver 5-15% returns over the next 12 months.
REDUCE. We expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over the next 12 months.
SELL. We expect this stock to deliver <-5% returns over the next 12 months.

Our Fair Value estimates are also on a 12-month horizon basis.Our Ratings System does not take into account short-term volatility in stock prices related
to movements in the market. Hence, a particular Rating may not strictly be in accordance with the Rating System at all times.

Other definitions
Coverage view. The coverage view represents each analyst’s overall fundamental outlook on the Sector. The coverage view will consist of one of the
following designations: Attractive, Neutral, Cautious.

Other ratings/identifiers
NR = Not Rated. The investment rating and fair value, if any, have been suspended temporarily. Such suspension is in compliance with applicable
regulation(s) and/or Kotak Securities policies in circumstances when Kotak Securities or its affiliates is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or
strategic transaction involving this company and in certain other circumstances.

CS = Coverage Suspended. Kotak Securities has suspended coverage of this company.

NC = Not Covered. Kotak Securities does not cover this company.

RS = Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities Research has suspended the investment rating and fair value, if any, for this stock, because there is not a
sufficient fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or fair value. The previous investment rating and fair value, if any, are no longer in
effect for this stock and should not be relied upon.

NA = Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable.
NM = Not Meaningful. The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded.

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compliance, or other reasons may prevent us from doing so. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this material, may from time to time have "long" or "short"
positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein. Kotak Securities Limited and its non-US affiliates may, to the extent permissible under applicable laws, have acted on or used
this research to the extent that it relates to non-US issuers, prior to or immediately following its publication. Foreign currency-denominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value
or price of or income derived from the investment. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, the value of which are influenced by foreign currencies, affectively assume currency risk. In addition, options involve risks and are not suitable
for all investors. Please ensure that you have read and understood the current derivatives risk disclosure document before entering into any derivative transactions.
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Kotak Securities Limited is a corporate trading and clearing member of BSE Limited (BSE), National Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE), Metropolitan Stock Exchange of India Limited (MSE), National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange
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Kotak Securities Limited is also a Depository Participant with National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) and Central Depository Services (India) Limited (CDSL). Kotak Securities Limited is also registered with Insurance Regulatory and
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We hereby declare that our activities were neither suspended nor we have defaulted with any stock exchange authority with whom we are registered in last five years. However, SEBI, Exchanges and Depositories have conducted the routine
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Research Analyst has served as an officer, director or employee of subject company(ies): No.
We or our associates may have received compensation from the subject company(ies) in the past 12 months.
We or our associates have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company(ies) or acted as a market maker in the financial instruments of the subject company/company (ies) discussed herein in the past 12
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We or our associates may have received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company(ies) in the past 12 months. We or our associates may have received any compensation for
products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company(ies) in the past 12 months. We or our associates may have received compensation or other benefits from the subject
company(ies) or third party in connection with the research report.
Our associates may have financial interest in the subject company(ies).
Research Analyst or his/her relative's financial interest in the subject company(ies): No
Kotak Securities Limited has financial interest in the subject company(ies) at the end of the week immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report: YES. Nature of Financial interest: Holding equity shares or derivatives of the
subject company.
Our associates may have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company(ies) at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report.
Research Analyst or his/her relatives have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company(ies) at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report: No.
Kotak Securities Limited has actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company(ies) at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report: No
Subject company(ies) may have been client during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.
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and select the "three years" icon in the price chart).
First Cut notes published on this site are for information purposes only. They represent early notations and responses by analysts to recent events. Data in the notes may not have been verified by us and investors should not act upon any
data or views in these notes. Most First Cut notes, but not necessarily all, will be followed by final research reports on the subject.
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Analyst Certification
The analyst(s) authoring this research report hereby certifies that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect such research analyst's personal views about the subject securities and issuers and that no part of his or her
compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in the research report.
This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of Firm. Firm Research is disseminated and available primarily electronically, and, in some cases, in printed form.
Additional information on recommended securities is available on request.
Our research should not be considered as an advertisement or advice, professional or otherwise. The investor is requested to take into consideration all the risk factors including their financial condition, suitability to risk return profile and the
like and take professional advice before investing.
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For more information related to investments in the securities market, please visit the SEBI Investor Website https://investor.sebi.gov.in/ and the SEBI Saa₹thi Mobile App.
Derivatives are a sophisticated investment device. The investor is requested to take into consideration all the risk factors before actually trading in derivative contracts. Compliance Officer Details: Mr. Hiren Thakkar. Call: 022 - 4285 8484, or
Email: ks.compliance@kotak.com.
Kotak Securities Limited. Registered Office: 27 BKC, C 27, G Block, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (E), Mumbai 400051. CIN: U99999MH1994PLC134051, Telephone No.: +22 43360000, Fax No.: +22 67132430. Website: www.kotak.com /
www.kotaksecurities.com. Correspondence Address: Infinity IT Park, Bldg. No 21, Opp. Film City Road, A K Vaidya Marg, Malad (East), Mumbai 400097. Telephone No: 42856825. SEBI Registration No: INZ000200137(Member of NSE, BSE,
MSE, MCX & NCDEX), AMFI ARN 0164, PMS INP000000258 and Research Analyst INH000000586. NSDL/CDSL: IN-DP-629-2021. Compliance Officer Details: Mr. Hiren Thakkar. Call: 022 - 4285 8484, or Email: ks.compliance@kotak.com
Details of Contact Person Address Contact No. Email ID
Customer Care/ Complaints Mr. Ritesh Shah Kotak Towers, 8th Floor, Building No.21, Infinity 18002099393 ks.escalation@kotak.com
Head of Customer Care Mr. Tabrez Anwar Park, Off Western Express Highway, Malad (East), 022-42858208 ks.servicehead@kotak.com
Compliance Officer Mr. Hiren Thakkar Mumbai, Maharashtra - 400097 022-42858484 ks.compliance@kotak.com
CEO Mr. Shripal Shah 022-42858301 ceo.ks@kotak.com
In absence of response/complaint not addressed to your satisfaction, you may lodge a complaint with SEBI at SEBI, NSE, BSE, Investor Service Center | NCDEX, MCX. Please quote your Service Ticket/Complaint Ref No. while raising your
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