14January2025_India_Daily
14January2025_India_Daily
14January2025_India_Daily
Contents
Daily Alerts
Results
HCL Technologies: Moderates near-term outlook
Retail-driven growth in services; slight miss on products
Narrows organic guidance; expect a muted 4QFY25
Portfolio mix may soften participation in industry growth recovery a tad
Maintain REDUCE at unchanged FV of Rs1,760
Sector Alerts
Pharmaceuticals: IPM pulse—volume uptick remains elusive
JB, Ipca and Ajanta growth leaders; Alembic and Sanofi lag in 3QFY25
Market share: Cipla, Glenmark and GSK top gainers; FDC and Torrent top losers
Risk of further acceleration in generics adoption not baked in
Economy Alerts
Economy: December CPI inflation softens as expected
Food price inflation moderates but remains high
Core inflation decelerates marginally
We retain our February rate cut call
Private Circulation Only. This document may only be distributed to QIBs (qualified institutional buyers) as defined under rule 144A of the Securities A ct of 1933
19.5% (flat yoy), aided by seasonal strength in the products segment (110 bps) Rel. to Nifty 8 16 24
and operational improvement (110 bps), partly offset by the impact of the wage Rel. to MSCI India 7 16 19
hike (80 bps) and furloughs (40 bps). The services EBIT margin was at 17.5%,
Forecasts/Valuations 2025E 2026E 2027E
down 30 bps qoq. Net profit of Rs45.9 bn was up 8.5% qoq and 5.6% yoy, and
EPS (Rs) 63.8 69.1 76.7
beat our estimates by 1%, driven by an EBIT beat.
EPS growth (%) 10.2 8.3 11.0
Narrows organic guidance; expect a muted 4QFY25 P/E (X) 31.2 28.8 25.9
P/B (X) 7.6 7.1 6.6
HCLT narrowed the FY2025 organic revenue growth guidance to 4.0-4.5% from
EV/EBITDA (X) 20.0 18.4 16.6
3.5-5.0%, keeping the midpoint constant. Inorganic contribution from the CTG
acquisition will be 50 bps in FY2025E. Guidance implies organic 4QFY25 qoq RoE (%) 24.9 25.4 26.4
revenue growth of (-)1.3-0.6%. The muted growth outlook is due to (1) the ramp- Div. yield (%) 2.8 2.9 3.0
down in a large program in retail, (2) planned reduction after the anniversary of Sales (Rs bn) 1,170 1,268 1,388
the Verizon mega deal, which will also impact 1QFY26 to some extent and (3) EBITDA (Rs bn) 256 277 303
ramp-up of recently won discretionary programs will take time. Net profits (Rs bn) 173 188 209
Products business
The products business increased 18.7% qoq in c/c to US$400 mn lower than our expectations of US$416
mn. Note that the products business grew at a strong pace in 2QFY25, driven by US$22 mn incremental
revenue in perpetual license revenue due to the Actian product sales. The increase in perpetual license
sales normalized in 3QFY25, according to our expectations. Additionally, HCLT could not convert a few
renewals and new deal opportunities. EBIT margin hit a high of 34.5% in the products business, aided by
lower amortization and discontinuation of select products. HCLT reported a 4.5-5.0% revenue growth
guidance for the products business in FY2025E.
Course for the medium term is ambitious and requires sharp execution
HCLT laid out its course for the medium term in its recent investor day, which includes the following:
Focus areas for growth. HCLT will focus on (1) full-stack AI solutions, (2) being a differentiated
challenger in enterprise apps such as SAP, data and AI, (3) cloud modernization opportunity, (4) digital
engineering, (5) cyber security, (6) market share gains in BPO through gen AI-driven optimization, (7)
better addressing G2000 and beyond G2000 demand, (8) increased market participation in focus and
new frontier markets, (9) better branding and marketing and (10) a larger partner ecosystem beyond
OEMs and hyperscalers
Cost takeout levers to fund investments and expand margins. Levers include (1) gen AI-led delivery
transformation, where HCLT can retain some benefits, (2) accelerated fresher deployment, (3) AI-led
customized learning programs to increase productivity and utilization, (4) lower-cost delivery
locations, (5) G&A optimization enabled by gen AI, (6) non-linear revenue models, leveraging AI-led
automation and solution accelerators and (7) expanding nearshore. Some efficiencies will fund
investments in building gen AI solutions, sales and marketing, and solutioning capacities.
Proactive gen AI adoption to increase market share. HCLT is proactively advocating the efficiency
benefits of generative AI to increase adoption in SDLC (especially testing) and BPO. Revenue deflation
is possible, but can be offset through AI-centric work such as modernization, cloud and data
architecture upgrades, and market share gains through higher volumes. HCLT has low exposure to
testing and BPO, which helps mitigate the impact.
HCL Technologies
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Outlook. The 4QFY25E services segment organic revenue growth at (-)1.3% to 0.6% due to the
following factors: (1) The closure of large engagement in retail vertical in 3QFY25, (2) planned
reduction in a few large engagements and (3) partial ramp-up of new engagements. HCLT expects
usual seasonality to play out during 1QFY26E due to annual productivity passed-on to clients as part
of earlier large engagements and residual impact of large telecom deal (likely to be marginal).
Manufacturing (ex-auto) remains strong.
Deal wins. Deal TCV was weak at US$2.1 bn, down 6% qoq. The company attributed the weakness to
shorter duration deals won during the quarter. It indicated ACV growth of 23% yoy and 9% qoq. HCLT
won 7 large deals in services segment and 5 large deals in HCLSoftware.
ERD services. Decent momentum, aided by integrated sales organization, put in place. Europe
continues to be challenged due to weakness in auto. Auto is likely to remain weak for another couple
of quarters.
HCLSoftware. Sequential uptick was lower due to lower renewals by clients and deferred decision-
making in a few deals.
GenAI. HCLT is investing in both industry-specific and horizontal solutions to address client
requirements. Management believes net positive impact with increased demand for legacy
modernization, cloud and data services. Furthermore, agentic AI holds promise from a cost
perspective for specific use cases leveraging smaller models.
DSO. Receivable days (incl. unbilled) were at 77 days, down 2 days qoq and 9 days yoy.
Cash flow. LTM free cash flow generation was at US$2.7 bn with FCF/PAT at 134%.
Financial services. Continuing to see improvement in client spending. Increase in large- and medium-
sized deals across Europe.
Other highlights. Top-five and top-20 clients continue to expand their business with HCLT. Expect a
good booking in the next couple of quarters. Less dependent on H-1B visas with 80% localization rate.
M&A integration costs for CTG are one-time in nature. Currency fluctuations impacted client count in
the US$5 mn and US$10 mn categories. Growth momentum will continue in ERD.
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Revenue growth yoy (%) 4.4 5.8 8.3 5.4 8.7 8.3
Revenue growth (c/c %) 4.9 7.0 8.3 4.9 8.6 8.3
Revenue growth (organic c/c %) 4.4 5.9 8.3 4.2 8.6 8.3
EBITDA 3,025 3,202 3,468 3,046 3,307 3,594 (0.7) (3.2) (3.5)
EBIT 2,542 2,749 3,012 2,551 2,849 3,137 (0.3) (3.5) (4.0)
Net Income 2,051 2,169 2,384 2,056 2,248 2,483 (0.3) (3.5) (4.0)
EPS Rs/ share 63.8 69.1 76.7 63.4 70.1 78.0 0.5 (1.4) (1.7)
HCL Technologies
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HCL Technologies
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Jun-20
Jun-24
Jun-18
Jun-21
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Sep-21
Sep-22
Sep-23
Sep-24
Mar-19
Mar-20
Mar-24
Mar-21
Mar-22
Mar-23
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-23
Dec-24
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities
HCLSoftware revenue growth - c/c yoy (%) HCLSoftware ARR - c/c yoy (%)
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(6.0)
(8.0)
(10.0)
Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24 Sep-24 Dec-24
HCL Technologies
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HCLT
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
13.2
10.0
5.0
Jun-19
Jun-24
Jun-20
Jun-21
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-19
Sep-20
Sep-21
Sep-22
Sep-23
Sep-24
Mar-24
Mar-20
Mar-21
Mar-22
Mar-23
Dec-23
Dec-24
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities
23
21
19.5
19
17
15
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
Sep-15
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Sep-21
Sep-22
Sep-23
Sep-24
Mar-13
Mar-15
Mar-18
Mar-20
Mar-22
Mar-14
Mar-16
Mar-17
Mar-19
Mar-21
Mar-23
Mar-24
HCL Technologies
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9
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
13.0
12.0
10.0
Jun-18
Jun-19
Jun-20
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-21
Jun-22
Jun-23
Jun-24
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Sep-21
Sep-22
Sep-23
Sep-24
Mar-18
Mar-19
Mar-20
Mar-16
Mar-17
Mar-21
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-24
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-21
Dec-22
Dec-23
Dec-24
Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities
Dec-22
Dec-21
Dec-23
Dec-24
Mar-21
Mar-24
Mar-20
Jun-20
Jun-21
Mar-22
Jun-24
Jun-22
Mar-23
Jun-23
Sep-20
Sep-21
Sep-22
Sep-23
Sep-24
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Acquired Zeenea in 2QFY25 for a consideration of US$26.2 mn as a tuck-in acquisition in products business
Acquisitions and investments announced by HCL Tech in the past 7-8 years
Date Target Country Business Description Consideration (mn) Sales (mn)
Products
1 Aug-24 Zeenea France Metadata management software providing data catalog and governance solutions $26.2 $2.6
2 May-22 Quest Informatics US Aftermarket ERP product provider $2.0 $1.8
3 Jun-20 IP deal US IP deal with Temenos for 7 years $70.0 NA
4 May-20 Cisco's SON technology US Products and services that automate planning, config, optimization etc of radio networks $49.5 NA
7 products from IBM portfolio in areas of security, marketing and commerce. HCLT had strategic IP
5 Dec-18 Enterprise software products of IBM US $1,775.0 $650.0
partnerships with IBM for 5 of the products.
6 Jun-18 IP deal US IP partnership with Cisco $177.0 NA
Hybrid data management, analytics and integration company. HCLT will own 80% of the company with
7 Apr-18 Actian Corporation US $330.0 $107.1
19.5% with a private equity player
8 Jan-18 3 IP partnerships US 3 IP partnerships- One with IBM, one with DXC and one with undisclosed global tech firm $300.0 $105.0
9 Oct-17 Strategic IP partnership with IBM (6) US Extended IP partnership to include Notes, Domino, Smart Cloud Notes, Verse and Sametime products $60.0 $30.0
10 Sep-17 Datawave UK Data management platform NA NA
11 Jul-17 Strategic IP partnership with IBM (5) US Extended IP partnership to cover marketing automation area $140.0 $30-35
12 Apr-17 Strategic IP partnership with IBM (4) US Extended partnership to cover Information management and Database management systems $80.0 ~$25
Extended partnership to cover Application security, B2B data transformation, testing automation and
13 Jan-17 Strategic IP partnership with IBM (3) US $155.0 $50.0
Mainframe management tools
14 Oct-16 Strategic IP partnership with IBM (2) US Extended IP partnership to cover API/web service enablement of mainframes $55.0 $15.0
15 Jun-16 Strategic IP partnership with IBM (1) US To invest in and grow workload automation and DevOps software of a global tech major $350.0 $100.0
Total spend on products US$3.6+ bn US$1.1+ bn
Notes:
(1) Geometric acquisition is a share-swap deal
(2) HCLT has paid about US$330 mn for Strategic IP partnership and balance US$225 mn would be paid over CY2017.
(3) For other acquisitions, the consideration is agreed amount and it includes earnouts.
Sharp unseasonal increase in perpetual license revenue in 2QFY25, which normalized in 3QFY25
Revenue split across perpetual licenses, subscription and support and professional services in products business
Revenue (US$ mn) 1QFY23 2QFY23 3QFY23 4QFY23 1QFY24 2QFY24 3QFY24 4QFY24 1QFY25 2QFY25 3QFY25
Perpetual license upfrom & others 48 46 72 50 36 31 48 32 36 58 49
Subscription & support 269 241 304 270 277 267 350 289 282 267 329
Professional services 16 17 22 22 19 21 22 21 16 17 21
Total 334 304 398 342 333 318 419 342 335 342 400
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15.0 15.2
11.3
10.0
5.0
-
Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24
HCLT has closed the gap in valuations with regards to TCS and Infosys
HCLT premium/(discount) to TCS and Infosys, one-year P/E forward band chart
10.0
(10.0)
(20.0)
(30.0)
(40.0)
(50.0)
(60.0)
Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24
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Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24 Sep-24 Dec-24
Revenues (US$ mn) 3,082 3,244 3,235 3,200 3,225 3,415 3,430 3,364 3,445 3,533
Services revenues (US$ mn) 2,792 2,864 2,908 2,883 2,922 3,009 3,104 3,041 3,114 3,144
Revenues (Rs mn) 246,860 267,000 266,060 262,960 266,720 284,460 284,990 280,570 288,620 298,900
Exchange rate 80.1 82.3 82.3 82.2 82.7 83.3 83.1 83.4 83.8 84.6
Geographical mix- (Services)
US 64.8 63.5 63.8 64.5 64.5 64.5 65.2 66.0 65.1 65.5
Europe 27.5 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 29.0 28.9 27.9 28.4 28.2
Asia Pacific 7.7 7.4 7.3 6.8 7.0 6.4 5.9 6.1 6.5 6.3
Revenues by segments (new classification)
IT and Business Services 73.6 71.7 73.8 74.7 74.6 71.7 74.4 74.5 74.6 73.0
Engineering and R&D Services 17.0 16.6 16.1 15.4 16.0 16.4 16.1 15.9 15.8 16.0
Products & Platforms 9.8 12.3 10.6 10.4 9.9 12.3 10.0 9.9 9.9 11.3
Revenue by vertical- (Services)
Financial services 20.6 19.9 21.2 22.6 22.6 21.7 21.6 21.0 20.5 20.3
Manufacturing 19.2 19.7 19.0 19.9 19.3 20.1 20.4 19.4 19.5 19.1
Technology & Services 15.1 14.8 14.4 13.4 13.1 12.8 12.3 13.0 13.1 13.3
Retail & CPG 9.2 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.6 9.6 9.1 9.4 9.6 10.6
Telecom, media, publishing, entertainment 9.2 9.4 8.8 7.6 8.0 9.7 11.5 12.2 12.1 12.3
Life sciences 16.5 17.1 17.5 17.5 17.5 16.4 16.3 15.9 16.0 15.5
Energy-utilities-public sector 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.0 9.9 9.7 8.8 9.1 9.2 8.9
Number of million dollar clients (LTM)
100 Million dollar + 17 17 19 20 20 20 22 22 22 22
50 Million dollar + 42 45 46 48 49 49 46 48 52 53
20 Million dollar + 128 130 131 127 132 132 137 133 137 136
10 Million dollar + 220 221 229 237 243 250 254 256 251 248
5 Million dollar + 356 365 375 390 402 401 395 404 402 398
1 Million dollar + 890 937 939 947 971 958 951 951 952 952
Client contribution to revenue (after select IBM products' acquisition)
Top 5 clients 10.7 10.3 10.1 9.8 9.8 9.8 10.4 11.4 12.1 12.6
Top 10 clients 18.8 18.2 17.7 17.2 17.2 17.7 18.8 19.6 20.1 20.3
Top 20 clients 28.6 28.2 27.8 27.2 27.3 28.0 29.0 30.1 30.8 30.9
Deal win TCV (US$ mn)
Net new deal wins 2,384 2,347 2,074 1,565 3,969 1,927 2,290 1,960 2,228 2,095
Manpower details
Consolidated manpower 219,325 222,270 225,944 223,438 221,139 224,756 227,481 219,401 218,621 220,755
Total net addition 8,359 2,945 3,674 (2,506) (2,299) 3,617 2,725 (8,080) (780) 2,134
Technical 205,305 207,920 211,445 209,066 206,745 210,417 213,059 205,197 204,600 206,517
Sales & support 14,020 14,350 14,499 14,372 14,394 14,339 14,422 14,204 14,021 14,238
Freshers added 10,339 5,892 3,674 1,597 3,630 3,818 3,096 1,078 2,932 2,014
Attrition - IT services (%) (a) 23.8 21.7 19.5 16.3 14.2 12.8 12.4 12.8 12.9 13.2
Notes
(a) Attrition excludes involuntary and digital process operations
(b) U$6 mn products business in ERD segments reclassified under P&P segment in 1QFY22
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Condensed consolidated US GAAP financials for HCL Technologies, March fiscal year-ends, 2020-27E (Rs mn)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025E 2026E 2027E
Profit model
Revenues 706,780 753,786 856,513 1,014,560 1,099,155 1,169,570 1,268,107 1,388,457
EBITDA 166,792 208,075 205,157 226,306 241,959 255,503 277,183 303,444
Depreciation (incl amortization of intangibles) (28,399) (46,153) (43,270) (41,596) (41,680) (40,767) (39,145) (39,853)
EBIT 138,393 161,921 161,888 184,710 200,279 214,736 238,037 263,591
Other income 1,798 4,149 7,460 10,079 9,397 17,765 14,173 16,545
Pretax profits 140,190 166,070 169,348 194,788 209,675 232,501 252,210 280,136
Tax (29,354) (36,197) (34,317) (46,497) (52,523) (59,172) (64,313) (71,435)
Minority interest (316) (237) (239) 25 (83) (84) (87) (88)
Profit after tax 110,521 129,636 134,792 148,316 157,070 173,244 187,810 208,614
Extraordinary items — (18,069) — — — — — —
Diluted earnings per share (Rs) 40.8 47.8 49.7 54.7 57.9 63.8 69.1 76.7
Dividend per share (Rs) 5.0 26.0 44.0 48.0 52.0 55.0 58.0 60.0
Balance sheet
Total equity 485,524 607,177 609,503 641,839 677,964 715,148 763,157 816,805
Deferred taxation liability 824 1,482 1,119 1,612 7,703 7,855 8,051 8,138
Total borrowings 47,869 39,560 39,241 22,088 23,192 23,649 24,239 24,500
Minority interest 5,348 1,630 895 (81) 83 169 260 350
Other non-current liabilities 41,296 48,079 41,479 42,241 57,567 58,701 60,165 60,813
Current liabilities 201,477 175,427 184,268 208,868 224,718 236,208 243,145 262,863
Total liabilities and equity 782,339 873,355 876,506 916,567 991,227 1,041,729 1,099,017 1,173,468
Cash 78,839 139,126 154,054 170,012 210,802 233,426 262,277 308,645
Other current assets 216,709 239,804 268,047 309,472 317,570 337,353 365,775 400,489
Goodwill and intangible assets 276,585 294,773 267,450 264,087 270,937 276,832 268,588 257,916
Tangible fixed assets 83,379 84,750 79,228 76,018 78,606 78,248 83,276 85,689
Investments 66,422 69,563 62,517 53,930 70,903 72,299 74,102 74,900
Other non-current assets 60,407 45,338 45,209 43,047 42,409 43,572 44,998 45,829
Total assets 782,339 873,355 876,506 916,567 991,227 1,041,729 1,099,017 1,173,468
Free cash flow
Operating cash flow, excl. working capital 114,907 199,555 161,515 182,765 226,830 191,180 193,555 217,987
Working capital changes (21,467) 26,003 (9,176) (6,288) 27,085 (5,111) (19,301) (14,022)
Capital expenditure (18,369) (17,557) (15,592) (14,430) (10,188) (19,830) (27,074) (27,807)
Acquisitions (65,450) (76,305) (4,103) (7,416) (20,459) (19,595—) — —
Other income 1,798 5,852 4,849 4,595 7,620 17,759 14,173 16,545
Free cash flow 11,419 137,548 137,493 159,226 230,889 164,403 161,352 192,703
Key assumption and ratios (%)
US$ revenue growth (b) 15.1 2.4 12.8 9.6 5.4 4.4 5.8 8.3
EBITDA margin 23.6 27.6 24.0 22.3 22.0 21.8 21.9 21.9
EBIT margin 19.6 21.5 18.9 18.2 18.2 18.4 18.8 19.0
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UPDATE
Pharmaceuticals
India
Sector View: Neutral NIFTY-50: 23,086 January 13, 2025
IPM pulse—volume uptick remains elusive Company data and valuation summary
IPM posted a rather subdued growth of 7.4% yoy in 3QFY25, driven by slower Fair Value P/E (X)
growth in acute. After a relatively strong sales growth of 10.7% yoy in Company Rating (Rs) 2026E 2027E
November 2024, December 2024 sales growth slipped to 6.5% yoy. In
Alivus Life Sciences BUY 1,200 21.1 18.6
CY2024, IPM sales grew 7.6% yoy, on a base of 9.7% yoy growth. We highlight
Aurobindo Pharma SELL 1,225 15.8 14.7
that volume traction in the end-market is still below normal, with pricing Biocon REDUCE 350 33.8 24.5
contributing to bulk of the growth. IPM growth has been modest at 8.2% yoy Blue Jet Healthcare ADD 550 34.7 27.7
in 9MFY25, lower compared to the 10-13% yoy organic domestic growth in Cipla BUY 1,725 22.4 22.6
Concord Biotech ADD 2,050 48.4 37.5
our estimates for FY2025E, thereby posing a slight downside risk. Within our
Divis Laboratories SELL 4,000 58.6 46.1
formulations coverage, Sun, Cipla, Lupin, JB and Emcure are preferred picks. Dr Reddy's Laboratories REDUCE 1,295 19.1 21.5
Emcure Pharmaceuticals BUY 1,680 27.1 22.5
JB, Ipca and Ajanta growth leaders; Alembic and Sanofi lag in 3QFY25 Gland Pharma REDUCE 1,625 26.8 21.9
JB Chemicals & Pharma BUY 2,325 32.1 27.8
IPM grew by just 6.5% yoy in Dec 2024, despite a low base of 5.4% yoy growth Laurus Labs SELL 370 59.7 45.4
in Dec 2023. Chronic therapies grew by 8% yoy and acute therapies by 5% yoy, Lupin ADD 2,385 25.4 26.5
Mankind Pharma ADD 2,855 36.6 30.2
during the month. Bulk of the IPM growth in Dec 2024 was driven by therapies
Sun Pharmaceuticals ADD 2,045 30.5 26.4
such as urology, cardiac, onco, respiratory and derma. In Dec 2024, revenues of Torrent Pharmaceuticals REDUCE 3,300 43.6 35.6
domestic companies grew by 6.2% yoy, compared to 8.2% yoy sales growth for Pharmaceuticals Neutral 29.5 26.7
Private Circulation Only. This document may only be distributed to QIBs (qualified institutional buyers) as defined under rule 144A of the Securities Act of 1933
MNC companies. Including unlisted companies, growth leaders in 3QFY25 were
Source: Bloomberg, Company data, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates
JB, Ipca, Ajanta, Sun, Abbott, Dr Reddy’s, Glenmark, Intas, FDC, Torrent and
Zydus, which posted 8-12% yoy sales growth. On the other hand, key Prices in this report are based on the market close of
January 13, 2025
underperformers in 3QFY25 were Alembic, Sanofi, Aristo, GSK, Micro Labs, Eris,
Macleods, Emcure and Mankind, which posted sales growth of (-2)-6% yoy.
Quick Numbers
Market share: Cipla, Glenmark and GSK top gainers; FDC and Torrent top losers
IPM growth of 7.6% yoy in MAT Dec 2024 (on a base of 9.7% yoy) was led by IPM grew 7.6% yoy in MAT Dec 2024
430 bps yoy contribution from higher pricing, and 250 bps yoy contribution from
new launches. Volume growth only contributed 80 bps to IPM growth in MAT Chronic therapies grew 8% yoy, while acute therapies
grew 5% yoy in Dec 2024
Dec 2024. Among the top 25 companies, Cipla, Glenmark, GSK, Alembic,
Mankind, Himalaya and Indoco have gained maximum share over the past six Domestic companies’ sales grew 6.2% yoy, compared
months. On the other hand, FDC, Torrent, Eris, Ipca, Emcure and USV have lost to 8.2% yoy growth for MNC companies in Dec 2024
maximum share in the past six months.
IPM – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 7.6% yoy IPM – Dec-24 sales grew 6.5% yoy
Exhibit 1: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs bn, %) Exhibit 2: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs bn, %)
MAT sales (Rs bn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs bn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)
2,400 20 204 30
202 202
2,293 202
2,300 199 200 199
200 20
15
2,200 198
2,131
196 7.9
2,100 10
10 194 11.7 5.3 192
10.7
2,000 1,942 192
9.7 6.5
5.2 0
1,900 190
7.6
6.7 5
188
1,800 186 (10)
Aug-24
Dec-24
Jul-24
Nov-24
Sep-24
Oct-24
1,700 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
IPM – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth IPM – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 3: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 4: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)
12 8
7
10
2.5
6
8 3.0
5
6 4
7.6
9.7 3 4.3
4.6
4
2
2 1
2.2 0.8
0 0
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Pharmaceuticals
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Company-wise sales and market share – top-25 companies enjoy ~71% market share
Exhibit 5: Dec MAT year-ends, 2021-24 (Rs bn, %)
MAT sales (Rs bn) MAT sales yoy growth (%) Monthly sales yoy growth (%) Market share (%)
Rank Company MAT Dec-21 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24 MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 MAT Dec-24
IPM 1,820 1,942 2,131 2,293 6.7 9.7 7.6 11.7 7.9 5.3 5.2 10.7 6.5 100.0
1 Sun Pharma 135 150 164 180 11.3 9.8 9.7 14.0 9.8 7.6 10.2 13.1 8.3 7.9
2 Abbott 110 120 131 143 9.0 9.8 8.9 13.8 10.1 7.1 9.1 12.4 10.0 6.2
3 Cipla 102 106 117 125 3.7 10.1 6.8 7.5 7.1 5.7 5.6 6.3 7.2 5.4
4 Mankind 86 92 103 111 7.2 11.1 8.0 13.7 7.2 5.1 2.1 10.4 2.9 4.8
5 Alkem 70 78 86 90 11.1 10.2 4.5 9.4 6.2 2.3 1.4 11.2 5.3 3.9
6 Intas 58 66 75 83 14.5 13.5 11.2 18.7 11.6 10.3 9.2 10.8 7.3 3.6
7 Lupin 64 68 73 79 5.7 7.5 7.7 13.0 7.9 5.0 7.5 9.0 3.0 3.4
8 Torrent 59 66 72 79 12.2 9.9 8.4 15.0 8.3 7.2 9.4 9.5 5.7 3.4
9 Macleods 57 63 71 76 10.0 13.2 6.2 6.3 5.6 (1.5) (1.6) 8.2 5.1 3.3
10 Dr. Reddy's 58 60 65 72 2.6 8.6 9.8 12.5 8.3 7.9 8.0 14.9 8.1 3.1
11 Zydus 53 56 61 65 6.3 8.0 7.6 14.5 10.6 7.4 7.1 11.5 5.4 2.9
12 Aristo 53 56 63 65 4.3 13.9 2.5 8.8 8.1 (3.3) (7.7) 10.9 2.0 2.8
13 GSK 47 50 52 52 5.6 4.1 1.1 4.7 0.3 (2.8) (1.9) 3.9 1.9 2.3
14 Emcure 45 45 48 50 0.4 5.9 5.0 9.9 6.7 6.7 4.1 5.6 4.0 2.2
15 Glenmark 42 39 43 48 (6.3) 10.5 11.8 14.4 13.4 9.3 7.8 12.4 8.0 2.1
16 Ipca Labs 32 37 41 47 13.7 13.0 13.5 23.8 9.8 7.8 5.8 18.8 10.2 2.1
17 USV 35 38 41 44 8.5 9.3 6.4 8.9 7.3 4.7 5.3 6.2 4.2 1.9
18 Micro Labs 31 33 34 35 6.6 4.7 3.1 9.5 3.2 2.9 2.2 4.1 1.9 1.5
19 Pfizer 34 33 33 34 (3.4) 1.0 2.1 2.4 6.1 1.9 3.3 7.2 6.5 1.5
20 Alembic 27 29 32 32 8.9 8.6 0.8 6.5 3.2 (5.1) (5.0) 1.6 (1.4) 1.4
21 Eris 25 26 29 30 5.4 9.0 5.9 8.2 2.8 1.8 4.3 6.3 (0.4) 1.3
22 JB 18 21 24 27 18.0 14.1 11.5 11.8 13.7 15.5 11.8 12.5 11.0 1.2
23 FDC 18 20 22 25 11.7 11.7 10.4 13.9 7.9 12.4 4.3 12.2 10.9 1.1
24 Sanofi 21 22 22 23 5.2 0.1 5.0 10.5 (1.0) 0.5 (3.3) 1.7 1.3 1.0
25 Himalaya 16 16 17 18 3.3 5.5 6.6 12.5 2.2 5.0 2.9 11.3 4.2 0.8
26 Ajanta 13 14 16 18 14.8 11.6 10.8 16.3 9.5 10.9 9.3 16.9 7.0 0.8
32 Indoco 12 13 13 13 4.3 2.7 1.5 9.5 5.2 0.2 3.4 11.0 2.7 0.6
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Sun Pharma
Sun Pharma – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 9.7% yoy Sun Pharma – Dec-24 sales grew 8.3% yoy
Exhibit 6: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 7: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)
210,000 20 18,000 30
15,885 15,663 15,498 15,763 15,997
180,354 16,000 15,230
180,000 164,457
149,829 14,000 20
15
150,000 12,000
10,000
120,000 14.0 10
13.1
11.3 10 8,000
9.8 10.2
90,000 6,000 7.6 8.3
9.8 9.7
4,000 0
60,000
5
2,000
30,000
0 (10)
Aug-24
Oct-24
Dec-24
Jul-24
Nov-24
Sep-24
0 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Sun Pharma – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Sun Pharma – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 8: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 9: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)
12 12
10 10
1.9 1.4
8 8
2.7
6 6 4.8
9.8 9.7
4 4
5.1
2 2
3.5
0 0
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Pharmaceuticals
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Abbott
Abbott – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 8.9% yoy Abbott – Dec-24 sales grew 10.0% yoy
Exhibit 11: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 12: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)
143,029 14,000 30
145,000 10 12,399 12,576 12,563 12,594 12,361 12,163
9.8
140,000 9.8 12,000
20
135,000 9.6 10,000
131,376
130,000 9.4 8,000
13.8 10
6,000 12.4
125,000 9.2 10.1 10.0
119,695 9.1
4,000 7.1
120,000 9 0
9.0
115,000 8.8 2,000
8.9
110,000 8.6 0 (10)
Jul-24
Aug-24
Dec-24
Nov-24
Sep-24
Oct-24
105,000 8.4
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Abbott – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Abbott – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 13: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 14: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)
12 10
9
10 1.3
8
1.2
7
8
6
6 5
5.8 5.8 8.9
9.8 4
4
3
2
2
2.8 1 1.7
0 0
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Pharmaceuticals
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Cipla
Cipla – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 6.8% yoy Cipla – Dec-24 sales grew 7.2% yoy
Exhibit 16: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 17: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)
Aug-24
Oct-24
Jul-24
Dec-24
Nov-24
Sep-24
0 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Cipla – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Cipla – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 18: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 19: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)
12 8
7
10
1.6 6 1.5
8
5
4.1
6 4
10.1 6.8
3 4.8
4
2
2 4.4
1
0.5
0 0
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Pharmaceuticals
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Mankind
Mankind – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 8.0% yoy Mankind – Dec-24 sales grew 2.9% yoy
Exhibit 21: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 22: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)
120,000 20 12,000 16
110,773
102,534 9,796 9,915 9,616 14
10,000 9,466 9,469 9,195
100,000 92,264
13.7 12
15 10.4
8,000
80,000 10
6,000 8
60,000 10
11.1 6
4,000 7.2
40,000 4
8.0 5.1
7.2 5 2,000
2
20,000 2.1 2.9
0 0
Aug-24
Dec-24
Nov-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Oct-24
0 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Mankind – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Mankind – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 23: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 24: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)
12 9
8
10
3.4 7
2.5
8 6
5
6
11.1 4 8.0
6.1
4 3 4.8
2
2
1
1.6
0.7
0 0
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Pharmaceuticals
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Alkem
Alkem – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 4.5% yoy Alkem – Dec-24 sales grew 5.3% yoy
Exhibit 26: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 27: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)
Aug-24
Dec-24
Nov-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Oct-24
60,000 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Alkem – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Alkem – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 28: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 29: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)
12 5
5
4
9
4.0 4 2.1
3
6 3
4.5
10.2 2
4.2
2
3 2.2
1
1.9 1
0 0.3
0
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Pharmaceuticals
India Research
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Lupin
Lupin – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 7.7% yoy Lupin – Dec-24 sales grew 3.0% yoy
Exhibit 31: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 32: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)
76,000 6,000 20
15
74,000 72,951 5,000
72,000 4,000 10
13.0
10 3,000
70,000 7.9 9.0
7.5
67,852 2,000 5.0 0
68,000 3.0
7.5 7.7 1,000
66,000 5
5.7
0 (10)
64,000
Dec-24
Aug-24
Jul-24
Oct-24
Nov-24
Sep-24
62,000 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Lupin – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Lupin – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 33: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 34: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)
8 9
7 8
7
6 3.1 2.8
6
5 5
4 4 7.7
7.5
3 3
5.4
3.5
2
2
1
1 0
1.0 (0.4)
0 (1)
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Pharmaceuticals
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Intas
Intas – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 11.2% yoy Intas – Dec-24 sales grew 7.3% yoy
Exhibit 36: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 37: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)
Aug-24
Dec-24
Nov-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Oct-24
0 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Intas – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Intas – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 38: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 39: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)
15 12
10
12 3.4
3.9
8
9
3.8 6 3.5
13.5 11.2
6
4
3 5.8 4.3
2
0 0
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Pharmaceuticals
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Torrent
Torrent – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 8.4% yoy Torrent – Dec-24 sales grew 5.7% yoy
Exhibit 41: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 42: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)
78,531 8,000 30
80,000 20 7,069
72,415 6,760 6,628 6,808 6,703 6,546
7,000
65,915
6,000 20
60,000 15
5,000
9.5
4,000 15.0 10
5.7
40,000 12.2 10 9.4
3,000 8.3 7.2
9.9
2,000 0
8.4
20,000 5 1,000
0 (10)
Aug-24
Jul-24
Dec-24
Nov-24
Sep-24
Oct-24
0 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Torrent – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Torrent – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 43: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 44: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)
12 9
8
10 2.0
7
8 4.0 6
5
6 8.4
4
9.9 7.1
3
4
7.3
2
2 1
0
0 (0.6)
(1)
(1.4)
(2) (2)
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Pharmaceuticals
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Macleods
Macleods – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 6.2% yoy Macleods– Dec-24 sales grew 5.1% yoy
Exhibit 46: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 47: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)
Aug-24
Jul-24
Dec-24
Nov-24
Sep-24
Oct-24
0 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Macleods – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Macleods – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 48: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 49: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)
14 7
12 2.1 6
1.4
10 5
8 4
7.8
13.2
6 3 6.2
4.7
4 2
2 1
3.2
0 0 0.1
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Pharmaceuticals
India Research
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Aristo
Aristo – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 2.5% yoy Aristo – Dec-24 sales grew 2.0% yoy
Exhibit 51: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 52: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)
58,000 8 3,000 0
2.0
55,575
56,000 6 2,000
(5)
54,000 4 1,000 (3.3)
4.3 (7.7)
52,000 2 0 (10)
2.5
Aug-24
Jul-24
Dec-24
Nov-24
Sep-24
Oct-24
50,000 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Aristo – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Aristo – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 53: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 54: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)
16 6
14
1.5 4
12
5.1
2
10 1.6
2.5
6.9
8 0
13.9
6
(2) (4.2)
4
5.5 (4)
2
0 (6)
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Pharmaceuticals
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Dr. Reddy’s
Dr. Reddy’s – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 9.8% yoy Dr. Reddy’s – Dec-24 sales grew 8.1% yoy
Exhibit 56: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 57: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)
Aug-24
Dec-24
Nov-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Oct-24
0 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Dr. Reddy’s – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Dr. Reddy’s – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 58: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 59: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)
10 12
9
10
8 1.2
7
8 3.8
6
5 4.9 6
8.6
4 9.8
4 3.7
3
2
2.5 2
1 2.3
0 0
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Pharmaceuticals
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Zydus
Zydus – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 7.6% yoy Zydus – Dec-24 sales grew 5.4% yoy
Exhibit 61: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 62: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)
Aug-24
Jul-24
Dec-24
Nov-24
Sep-24
Oct-24
0 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Zydus – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Zydus – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 63: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 64: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)
9 9
8 8
7 7
2.8 2.1
6 6
5 5
2 2
1 1 2.5
0.5
0 0
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Pharmaceuticals
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GSK
GSK – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 1.1% yoy GSK – Dec-24 sales grew 1.9% yoy
Exhibit 66: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 67: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)
60,000 15 5,000 30
51,718 52,300
49,678 4,572
50,000 4,517 4,531 4,545 4,491
12 20
4,327
40,000
9
4,000 4.7 10
30,000 3.9
5.6 1.9
6 (1.9)
20,000 4.1 (2.8) 0
0.3
3
10,000 1.1
3,000 (10)
Aug-24
Dec-24
Nov-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Oct-24
0 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
GSK – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth GSK – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 68: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 69: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)
5 2.5
4 2.0
0.4
4
1.5
3
1.0 1.9 0.5
3 2.5
0.5 1.1
2 4.1
0.0
2
(0.5)
1 (1.3)
1 1.1 (1.0)
0 (1.5)
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Pharmaceuticals
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Emcure
Emcure – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 5.0% yoy Emcure – Dec-24 sales grew 4.0% yoy
Exhibit 71: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 72: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)
51,000 50,268 7 5,000 4,498 12
4,420 4,417 4,426
5.9 4,166 4,089
50,000
6 10
4,000
49,000 9.9
47,885 5 6.7 8
48,000 3,000
5.0
47,000 4 6
6.7
46,000 2,000
45,225 3 5.6 4
45,000 4.1 4.0
2 1,000 2
44,000
0.4 1
43,000 0 0
Aug-24
Jul-24
Dec-24
Nov-24
Sep-24
Oct-24
42,000 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Emcure – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Emcure – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 73: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 74: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)
7 6
6
5
5
3.2 4
4
2.6
3 5.9
5.2 3
2 5.0
2
1
3.0
0 1
(1)
(2.5)
0
(2)
(0.7)
(3) (1)
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Pharmaceuticals
India Research
k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
31
Glenmark
Glenmark – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 11.8% yoy Glenmark – Dec-24 sales grew 8.0% yoy
Exhibit 76: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 77: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)
48,454 5,000 20
50,000 40 4,302 4,313
43,358 4,500 4,161 4,236 4,274 18
3,979
39,252 4,000 16
13.4
40,000 30 3,500 14
3,000 14.4 12
30,000 20 2,500 12.4 10
10.5 11.8
2,000 8
9.3
20,000 10 1,500 7.8 8.0 6
1,000 4
10,000 0 500 2
(6.3)
0 0
Aug-24
Jul-24
Dec-24
Nov-24
Sep-24
Oct-24
0 (10)
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Glenmark – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Glenmark – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 78: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 79: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)
12 14
10 12
2.4 2.1
10
8
3.0 8
6 5.8
10.5 11.8
6
4
4
5.0
2 2 3.8
0 0
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Pharmaceuticals
India Research
k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
32
USV
USV – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 6.4% yoy USV – Dec-24 sales grew 4.2% yoy
Exhibit 81: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 82: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)
Aug-24
Jul-24
Dec-24
Nov-24
Sep-24
Oct-24
0 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
USV – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth USV – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 83: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 84: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)
10 7
9
6
2.0
8
2.2
7 5
6
4
5
9.3 6.4
6.2 3
4
3.6
3 2
2
1
1
1.1 0.6
0 0
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Pharmaceuticals
India Research
k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
33
Ipca Labs
Ipca Labs – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 13.5% yoy Ipca Labs – Dec-24 sales grew 10.2% yoy
Exhibit 86: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 87: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)
50,000 13.7 47,071 14 4,500 23.8 25
4,369
41,460 4,400 4,335
14 18.8 20
40,000 36,678 4,300 4,220
13.5 4,200 4,118 4,140
13 15
30,000 4,100
9.8 10.2
13 4,000 7.8 3,915 10
20,000 3,900
13 3,800
13.0 5
3,700 5.8
10,000
13
3,600 0
Aug-24
Jul-24
Dec-24
Nov-24
Sep-24
Oct-24
0 13
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Ipca Labs – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Ipca Labs – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 88: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 89: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)
15 16
14
12 1.7 1.3
12
9 10
6.8
7.2 8
13.0 13.5
6 6
4
3
5.4
4.2 2
0 0
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Pharmaceuticals
India Research
k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
34
Micro Labs
Micro Labs – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 3.1% yoy Micro Labs – Dec-24 sales grew 1.9% yoy
Exhibit 91: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2021-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 92: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)
9.5
3,500 3,289 3,227 10
40,000
35,493
7 3,083 3,198 3,014
34,431 2,878 9
35,000 32,891 3,000
6.6 6 8
30,000 2,500 7
5
2,000 6
25,000
4.7 4 5
20,000 1,500 4
3
15,000 1,000 4.1 3
3.1 3.2
2 2.9 2
10,000 500
2.2 1.9 1
5,000 1 0 0
Aug-24
Jul-24
Dec-24
Nov-24
Sep-24
Oct-24
0 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Micro Labs – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Micro Labs – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 93: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 94: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)
6 4
5 3
4 3
1.8
2.6 2
3
4.8 4.7 2 3.1
2 2.8
1
1
1
0
0
(1)
(2.7) (1)
(1.4)
(2) (1)
(3) (2)
(4) (2)
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Pharmaceuticals
India Research
k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
35
Pfizer
Pfizer – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 2.1% yoy Pfizer – Dec-24 sales grew 6.5% yoy
Exhibit 96: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 97: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)
40,000 3 3,500 24
2,944 2,955 2,969 3,033
33,952 2,886
35,000 32,928 33,250 3,000 2,679
2 19
2.1
30,000 2,500
1
2,000 14
25,000 1.0
0
20,000 1,500 7.2 6.5 9
6.1
(1)
15,000 1,000 3.3
(2) 4
10,000 500
(3.4) 2.4 1.9
5,000 (3) 0 (1)
Aug-24
Oct-24
Dec-24
Jul-24
Nov-24
Sep-24
0 (4)
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Pfizer – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Pfizer – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 98: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 99: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)
1.2 2.5
1 2.0
0.2
0.8 1.5
1.5
0 (0.5)
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Pharmaceuticals
India Research
k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
36
Sanofi
Sanofi – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 5.0% yoy Sanofi – Dec-24 sales grew 1.3% yoy
Exhibit 101: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 102: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)
2,500 10.5 12
25,000 22,893 6
21,761 21,793 10
1,933 1,908 1,947 1,885 1,915 1,916
5 2,000 8
20,000
5.2 5.0 6
4 1,500
4
15,000 1.3
2
3 1,000 (1.0)
1.7 0
10,000
2 0.5 (2)
500
(4)
5,000 (3.3)
1
0.1 0 (6)
Aug-24
Jul-24
Dec-24
Nov-24
Sep-24
Oct-24
0 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Sanofi – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Sanofi – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 103: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 104: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)
1 6
1
1 5
0.6
1
1.0 4
0 1.4
0
- 3
0.1
0
5.0
(0)
2
(0) (0.8) 3.0
(1) 1
(1)
(1) 0
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Pharmaceuticals
India Research
k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
37
Alembic
Alembic – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 0.8% yoy Alembic – Dec-24 sales declined 1.4% yoy
Exhibit 106: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 107: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)
Aug-24
Jul-24
Dec-24
Nov-24
Sep-24
Oct-24
0 (20)
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Alembic – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Alembic – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 108: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 109: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)
10 6
8 4
5.1
4.2 2
6 2.2
0 0.8
4 8.6
(2)
5.3
2 (6.5)
(4)
0 (6)
(1.0)
(2) (8)
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Pharmaceuticals
India Research
k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
38
JB
JB – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 11.5% yoy JB – Dec-24 sales grew 11.0% yoy
Exhibit 111: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 112: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)
30,000 30 3,000 18
26,848
2,351 2,396 2,393 2,354 16
24,079 2,500 2,250 2,274
25,000 25 14
21,112 15.5
2,000 13.7 12
20,000 20 12.5
11.8 11.8 10
18.0 1,500 11.0
15,000 14.1 15 8
1,000 6
10,000 10 4
11.5 500
2
5,000 5
0 0
Aug-24
Jul-24
Dec-24
Nov-24
Sep-24
Oct-24
0 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
JB – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth JB – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 113: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 114: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)
16 14
14 12
2.4 0.6
12
10
10 3.8
8
6.5
8
14.1 6 11.5
6
4
4 7.9
2 4.4
2
0 0
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Pharmaceuticals
India Research
k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
39
Eris
Eris – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 5.9% yoy Eris – Dec-24 sales declined 0.4% yoy
Exhibit 116: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 117: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)
3,000 9
35,000 10 2,646
9.0 2,536 2,491 2,539 2,541 2,484 8
30,212
28,522 9 2,500
30,000 8.2 6.3 7
26,160 8
6
25,000 2,000
7 5
20,000 6 1,500 4
5.9 5 4.3 3
15,000 5.4 1,000
4 2
2.8
10,000 3 1.8 1
500
2 (0.4) 0
5,000 0 (1)
1
Aug-24
Dec-24
Nov-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Oct-24
0 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Eris – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Eris – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 118: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 119: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)
12 7
10 6
8 5.9
5
6
10.6 4 4.0
4 9.0
3
2 4.2
2
0 3.3
1
(2)
(5.8)
(4) 0
(1.4)
(6) (1)
(8) (2)
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Pharmaceuticals
India Research
k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
40
FDC
FDC – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 10.4% yoy FDC – Dec-24 sales grew 10.9% yoy
Exhibit 121: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 122: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)
Aug-24
Jul-24
Dec-24
Nov-24
Sep-24
Oct-24
0 10
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
FDC – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth FDC – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 123: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 124: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)
14 12
12 10
1.5 2.5
10
8
8 4.0
6
6 11.7 5.2 10.4
4
4
6.2
2 2
2.7
0 0
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Pharmaceuticals
India Research
k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
41
Himalaya
Himalaya – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 6.6% yoy Himalaya – Dec-24 sales grew 4.2% yoy
Exhibit 126: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 127: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)
Aug-24
Dec-24
Nov-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Oct-24
0 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Himalaya – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Himalaya – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 128: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 129: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)
15 14
12
10 12.1 10
8
6 11.9 0.4
5 0.3
4
5.5 6.6
2
0
0
(6.9) (2)
(5.8)
(5) (4)
(6)
(10) (8)
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Pharmaceuticals
India Research
k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
42
Ajanta
Ajanta – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 10.8% yoy Ajanta – Dec-24 sales grew 7.0% yoy
Exhibit 131: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 132: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)
20,000 14.8 16
17,751 1,800 18
1,582 1,557
18,000 1,600 1,490 1,490 1,469 1,502 16
16,025 14
16.3 16.9
16,000 14,365 1,400 14
12
14,000 1,200 12
12,000 11.6 10 1,000 10
10.8 10.9
10,000 8 800 9.5 8
9.3
8,000 600 6
6 7.0
6,000 400 4
4
4,000 200 2
2,000 2 0 0
Aug-24
Dec-24
Nov-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Oct-24
0 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Ajanta – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Ajanta – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 133: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 134: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)
15 12
10
12 2.8
3.6 8
9
6
5.4 10.8
6 4.1 11.6
4
3
2
3.8 2.6
0 0
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Pharmaceuticals
India Research
k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
43
Indoco
Indoco – MAT Dec-24 sales grew 1.5% yoy Indoco – Dec-24 sales grew 2.7% yoy
Exhibit 136: Annual sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2022-24 (Rs mn, %) Exhibit 137: Monthly sales, Dec MAT year-ends, 2023-24 (Rs mn, %)
MAT sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS) Monthly sales (Rs mn, LHS) yoy growth (%, RHS)
15,000 5 1,400 12
1,222
4.3 4.5 1,174 1,214 1,197 1,174
1,200 1,079 10
4 9.5
13,082 1,000 11.0
12,552 12,886 3.5 8
3 800
6
12,000 2.5 600
2.7
1.5 2 5.2 4
400
1.5
200
3.4 2.7 2
1 0.2
0.5 0 0
Aug-24
Dec-24
Nov-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Oct-24
9,000 0
MAT Dec-22 MAT Dec-23 MAT Dec-24
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Indoco – key drivers of MAT Dec-23 growth Indoco – key drivers of MAT Dec-24 growth
Exhibit 138: Dec MAT year-end, 2023 (%) Exhibit 139: Dec MAT year-end, 2024 (%)
5 8
4 6
3
4
2 4.5
2.4 5.4
2.7 2
1
2.4
1.5
0 0
(1) (2)
(2) (4.2) (6.3)
(4)
(3)
(4) (6)
(5) (8)
Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth Vol growth Price growth N.I. growth Value growth
Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: IQVIA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Pharmaceuticals
India Research
k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
UPDATE
Economy
Prices
January 13, 2025
December CPI inflation softens as expected Summary of key macro metrics for India
CPI inflation in December softened to 5.2%, supported by a broad-based 2023 2024 2025E 2026E
deceleration in prices. We maintain our FY2025 average headline CPI Real economy
Real GDP growth (%) 7.0 8.2 6.1 6.4
estimate at 4.8% and expect CPI inflation to glide toward the RBI’s 4% target
Nominal GDP growth (%) 14.2 9.6 10.3 10.9
in the next few months. While we stick to our February rate cut call, we remain CPI Inflation (avg., %) 6.7 5.4 4.8 4.2
cautious on the timing and quantum of rate cuts in CY2025. Public finance
Center's GFD/GDP (%) 6.4 5.6 4.6 4.5
Monetary policy
Food price inflation moderates but remains high Repo Rate (%, eop) 6.50 6.50 6.25 5.75
December CPI inflation decelerated to 5.2% (Kotak: 5.4%; Consensus: 5.3%; SDF Rate (%, eop) 6.25 6.25 6.00 5.25
CRR (%, eop) 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.0
November: 5.5%). Headline CPI fell by 0.6% mom led by a sharp fall in food prices External sector
and moderate decline in core components’ prices. Food inflation (8.4% yoy) was Current Account Balance (% of GDP) (2.0) (0.7) (1.3) (1.5)
Brent crude oil price (avg., USD/bbl) 95.4 82.9 80.0 80.0
led by sharp price increases in vegetables, oils and fats, fruits eggs and cereals.
USD/INR (avg.) 80.3 82.8 84.4 86.5
Durable food inflation remained benign at 3.5% in December. Meanwhile, volatile
food inflation remained elevated at 17.8% although showing continued signs of Source: CEIC, Bloomberg, RBI, Kotak Economics Research estimates
moderation. CPI excluding fruits and vegetables remained stable at 4.3%, while
CPI excluding vegetables remained stable at 3.7%, below RBI’s 4% inflation
target (see Exhibits 1-4). High frequency data shows softening prices of
Private Circulation Only. This document may only be distributed to QIBs (qualified institutional buyers) as defined under rule 144A of the Securities A ct of 1933
Quick Numbers
vegetables and pulses, while oils and fats and fruits show upward momentum.
Meanwhile, even as both urban and rural inflations have eased, rural inflation
continues to be relatively higher (see Exhibit 5). December headline inflation at 5.2%; core inflation at
3.6%
Core inflation decelerates marginally Retain our FY2025 and FY2026 average inflation
Core inflation (CPI excluding food, beverages and fuel) moderated marginally estimates at 4.8% and 4.2%, respectively
to 3.6% (Kotak: 3.9%; November: 3.7%). Sequentially, core components’ prices
Retain our February rate cut call; remain cautious on
remained broadly unchanged from the previous month (compared to a rise of the timing and quantum of rate cuts in CY2025
0.2% mom in November) led by a commensurate slowing in prices across all
components. Gold, silver and ornaments all saw a sequential decline of (0.1%),
(0.8%) and (1.0%), respectively, in December. Various core inflation metrics
indicate similar softening, with super-core inflation (core inflation excluding
petrol, diesel, gold and silver) continuing to decelerate at a sharper pace (see
Exhibit 6). We expect core inflation to average 3.6% in FY2025 and 4.3% in
FY2026. We retain our FY2025 and FY2026 average headline CPI inflation
forecasts at 4.8% and 4.2%, respectively (see Exhibit 7).
(1)
(2)
Jun-22
Jun-23
Jun-24
Jun-25
Sep-22
Sep-23
Sep-24
Sep-25
Dec-21
Dec-22
Dec-23
Dec-24
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-24
Mar-25
Source: CEIC, Kotak Economics Research
0
Jun-22
Jun-23
Jun-24
Sep-24
Sep-22
Sep-23
Dec-22
Dec-23
Dec-24
Dec-21
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-24
(1)
Economy
India Research
k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
46
Food inflation falls; vegetables and oils and fats prices remain elevated
Exhibit 3: Contribution to CPI food inflation by major segments (%)
Jun-23
Jun-22
Jun-24
Nov-22
Nov-23
Nov-24
Sep-24
Sep-22
Sep-23
Dec-22
Dec-23
Dec-21
Dec-24
May-22
May-23
Jul-23
May-24
Jul-24
Jul-22
Oct-22
Oct-24
Oct-23
Apr-22
Apr-23
Apr-24
Feb-24
Feb-22
Feb-23
Jan-24
Jan-22
Jan-23
Aug-23
Aug-24
Mar-22
Aug-22
Mar-24
Mar-23
CPI F&B - durable CPI F&B - non-durable CPI F&B excl. vegetables and fruits
35 CPI excl. vegetables
14
30
25 12
20 10
15
8
10
5 6
0 4
(5)
2
(10)
(15) 0
Jun-14
Jun-21
Nov-20
Jun-14
Jun-21
Nov-20
Sep-19
Sep-19
Dec-17
Dec-24
May-17
May-24
Jul-18
Apr-20
May-17
May-24
Dec-24
Oct-16
Dec-17
Oct-23
Apr-20
Oct-16
Oct-23
Feb-19
Jul-18
Jan-15
Jan-22
Mar-16
Aug-22
Mar-23
Aug-15
Feb-19
Mar-16
Mar-23
Jan-15
Aug-15
Jan-22
Aug-22
Notes:
(a) F&B represents food and beverages.
(b) Durable food items include cereals, pulses, milk, meat & fish, spices, non-alcoholic beverages, and prepared meals & snacks. Non-durable are the remaining
items including vegetables, fruits, etc.
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Jun-20
Jun-21
Jun-22
Jun-19
Jun-23
Jun-24
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-22
Dec-23
Dec-24
Dec-20
Dec-21
Source: CEIC, Kotak Economics Research
Jun-20
Jun-21
Jun-22
Jun-23
Jun-24
Dec-21
Dec-22
Dec-23
Dec-24
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Notes:
(a) Core is defined as headline excluding food and fuel.
(b) Core-core is defined as core excluding petrol and diesel.
(c) Super-core is defined as core-core excluding gold and silver.
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We retain our FY2025 and FY2026 average headline inflation estimates at 4.8% and 4.2%, respectively
Exhibit 7: Trend in headline CPI and core inflation (%)
1
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-21
Sep-22
Sep-25
Sep-20
Sep-23
Sep-24
Mar-18
Mar-19
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-25
Mar-26
Mar-20
Mar-21
Mar-24
Source: CEIC, Kotak Economics Research estimates
Economy
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Price (Rs) Fair Value Upside Mkt cap. O/S shares EPS (Rs) P/E (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) ADV-3M (US$ mn)
Company Rating 13-Jan-25 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E Traded Delivered
Hotels & Restaurants
Chalet Hotels ADD 860 930 8 188 2.2 218 8 29 46 111 30 19 6.3 5.2 4.1 26 18 12 7 19 25 (0.2) (0.2) (0.3) 6 2
Devyani International ADD 178 184 4 214 2.5 1,204 (0) 0 1 NM 359 169 20.4 19.8 18.7 27 22 19 NM 6 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 6 3
Indian Hotels ADD 756 800 6 1,076 12.4 1,423 12 16 20 61 47 38 9.6 8.2 6.9 35 27 22 17 19 20 0.3 0.3 0.4 36 19
Jubilant Foodworks REDUCE 707 690 (2) 466 5.4 660 4 6 7 191 121 96 19.6 17.5 15.3 39 32 27 11 15 17 0.2 0.2 0.3 17 7
Lemon Tree Hotels REDUCE 137 118 (14) 108 1.2 792 2 4 5 55 39 27 10.5 9.3 8.0 20 16 12 20 25 32 1.0 1.2 1.5 7 3
Restaurant Brands Asia REDUCE 75 95 26 38 0.4 495 (2) (1) (1) NM NM NM 2.1 2.2 2.2 14 11 9 NM NM NM — — — 1 1
Samhi Hotels BUY 180 265 47 40 0.5 220 6 9 13 31 21 14 3.4 3.0 2.5 13 11 9 11 15 20 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 2
Sapphire Foods ADD 321 380 18 103 1.2 318 1 2 3 475 153 93 7.5 7.1 6.6 21 17 14 2 5 7 — — — 2 1
Westlife Foodworld REDUCE 753 700 (7) 117 1.4 156 1 5 8 1,246 158 96 19.7 17.9 15.6 38 27 22 2 12 17 — — — 2 1
Hotels & Restaurants Attractive 2,350 27.1 97.2 59.9 44.0 10.0 8.8 7.5 30.0 23.3 18.8 10.3 14.7 17.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 81 39
Insurance
HDFC Life Insurance BUY 600 850 42 1,291 14.9 2,020 8 10 11 71 61 53 8.3 7.9 7.4 — — — 12 13 14 0.4 0.4 0.5 27 15
ICICI Lombard ADD 1,837 2,075 13 910 10.5 493 52 60 70 36 31 26 6.4 5.4 4.6 — — — 19 19 19 0.4 0.5 0.6 14 9
ICICI Prudential Life BUY 636 850 34 920 10.6 1,441 6 7 8 99 88 81 8.0 7.4 6.9 — — — 8 9 9 0.5 0.5 0.5 8 4
LIC BUY 809 1,250 55 5,117 59.1 6,325 67 70 72 12 12 11 4.5 3.5 2.8 — — — 43 34 28 — — — 14 6
Max Financial Services ADD 1,069 1,350 26 369 4.3 345 2 2 3 573 499 426 — — — — — — 1 1 1 — — — 12 6
PB Fintech REDUCE 1,697 1,500 (12) 779 9.0 456 6 13 21 271 133 82 — — — 4 9 12 — — — 30 16
SBI Life Insurance ADD 1,467 1,900 29 1,470 17.0 1,005 24 27 29 62 55 51 8.9 7.8 6.9 — — — 15 15 14 0.3 0.3 0.3 32 20
Star Health and Allied Insurance REDUCE 464 500 8 273 3.1 585 13 17 25 35 28 19 3.8 3.3 2.8 — — — 12 13 16 — — — 7 4
Insurance Attractive 11,129 128.5 21.8 20.4 19.2 5.8 4.8 4.0 27 23 21 0.1 0.1 0.1 144 80
Internet Software & Services
Brainbees Solutions ADD 502 630 25 261 3.0 523.4 (6) (3) 2 NM NM 250 5.4 5.3 5.1 214 70 33 NM NM 2.1 — — — 5 2
Cartrade Tech SELL 1,418 700 (51) 67 0.8 51.5 17 20 23 85 72 62 3.4 3.2 3.1 54 44 37 4.1 4.6 5.1 — — — 6 2
FSN E-commerce Ventures SELL 165 170 3 470 5.4 2,875.0 0 1 2 465 138 79 34.7 27.7 20.5 100 59 40 7.8 22 30 — — — 16 8
Indiamart REDUCE 2,243 2,350 5 135 1.6 59.9 88 96 109 25 23 21 6.3 5.2 4.4 19 16 13 27 24 23 1.1 1.1 1.1 11 5
Info Edge ADD 7,253 8,350 15 940 10.8 129.1 77 93 110 94 78 66 3.6 3.5 3.3 80 66 55 3.9 4.5 5.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 27 14
Just Dial BUY 899 1,330 48 76 0.9 85.0 67 66 72 13 14 13 1.7 1.5 1.3 7 5 3 13.2 11.5 11.2 — — — 4 2
Zomato BUY 227 305 34 2,192 25.3 9,131 1 2 4 225 94 62 6.8 6.2 5.6 206 87 45 3.6 6.9 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 184 83
Internet Software & Services Attractive 4,141 47.8 142 85 60 5.8 5.4 4.9 104 64 41 4.1 6.3 8.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 253 114
IT Services
Coforge ADD 8,706 9,300 7 582 6.7 67 144 200 256 60 44 34 9.6 8.6 7.8 30 23 18 20 21 24 0.9 1.1 1.6 48 22
Cyient BUY 1,682 2,050 22 187 2.2 111 66 82 92 25 20 18 3.8 3.4 3.1 14 12 10 15 17 18 2.1 2.6 3.3 7 4
HCL Technologies REDUCE 1,989 1,760 (12) 5,399 62.3 2,716 64 69 77 31 29 26 7.6 7.1 6.6 20 18 17 25 25 26 2.8 2.9 3.0 56 35
Indegene BUY 601 730 21 144 1.7 240 17 21 25 36 29 24 5.6 4.7 3.9 23 19 15 20 18 18 0.0 0.0 0.0 7 4
Infosys BUY 1,962 2,200 12 8,148 94.1 4,151 63 72 80 31 27 25 8.6 8.0 7.6 20 18 16 29 30 32 2.4 2.8 3.5 122 73
KPIT Technologies SELL 1,310 1,150 (12) 359 4.1 273 27 34 43 48 38 31 12.9 10.4 8.4 28 22 18 30 30 30 0.7 0.9 1.1 24 11
L&T Technology Services SELL 4,853 4,450 (8) 514 5.9 106 123 145 165 39 33 29 8.5 7.4 6.5 25 22 19 23 24 24 1.0 1.1 1.3 8 3
LTIMindtree ADD 6,031 6,750 12 1,787 20.6 296 163 203 233 37 30 26 7.9 6.9 6.1 25 21 18 23 25 25 1.3 1.5 1.8 23 11
Mphasis SELL 2,778 2,750 (1) 527 6.1 189 90 99 116 31 28 24 5.7 5.3 4.9 20 18 15 19 20 21 2.3 2.5 2.5 22 11
Persistent Systems SELL 6,003 4,600 (23) 936 10.8 155 87 107 128 69 56 47 15.9 13.4 11.3 46 38 31 25 26 26 0.5 0.6 0.7 33 15
RateGain REDUCE 685 800 17 81 0.9 119 17 22 26 39 32 27 4.9 4.2 3.6 32 24 20 13 14 15 — — — 3 2
Tata Elxsi SELL 5,942 5,400 (9) 370 4.3 62 129 145 172 46 41 35 13.3 12.1 10.9 33 29 24 31 31 33 1.4 1.7 2.0 18 7
Tata Technologies SELL 795 650 (18) 322 3.7 406 17 20 24 48 40 34 9.1 8.1 7.2 32 27 22 20 22 23 1.0 1.3 1.5 11 5
TCS ADD 4,291 4,550 6 15,526 179.2 3,619 135 147 165 32 29 26 15.5 14.2 13.0 22 20 18 51 51 52 2.7 2.8 3.2 115 69
Tech Mahindra ADD 1,656 1,850 12 1,464 16.9 890 51 66 84 33 25 20 5.4 5.1 4.8 19 15 12 17 21 25 2.3 2.4 3.1 39 21
Wipro SELL 292 250 (14) 3,055 35.3 10,472 12 13 14 24 22 21 3.5 3.2 3.0 15 14 13 16 15 15 0.2 2.1 2.6 49 22
IT Services Neutral 39,400 454.8 32.0 28.5 25.3 8.8 8.1 7.5 21.2 19.0 16.8 27.5 28.3 29.5 2.1 2.5 2.9 585 292
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Price (Rs) Fair Value Upside Mkt cap. O/S shares EPS (Rs) P/E (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) ADV-3M (US$ mn)
Company Rating 13-Jan-25 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E Traded Delivered
Media
PVR INOX ADD 1,078 1,700 58 106 1.2 98 13 42 56 81 25 19 1.2 1.2 1.1 15 10 8 2 5 6 0.1 0.4 0.5 11 4
Sun TV Network REDUCE 645 730 13 254 2.9 394 45 50 54 14 13 12 2.2 2.0 1.8 10 8 8 16 16 16 3.0 3.4 3.8 3 1
Zee Entertainment Enterprises REDUCE 119 138 16 114 1.3 960 8 10 11 15 12 11 1.0 1.0 0.9 7 6 6 7 8 9 3.4 3.8 4.2 19 7
Media Neutral 475 5.5 17.5 14.2 12.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 10.1 8.1 7.1 8.6 10.0 10.5 2.4 2.8 3.1 34 12
Metals & Mining
Gravita India ADD 2,036 2,500 23 150 1.7 69 44 58 72 46 35 28 12.8 9.8 7.8 36.1 28.5 23.2 32 31 31 0.3 0.4 0.9 8 4
Hindalco Industries REDUCE 564 665 18 1,267 14.6 2,220 66 58 62 9 10 9 1.0 1.0 0.9 4.9 5.1 4.9 13 10 10 1.2 1.0 1.1 44 22
Hindustan Zinc SELL 419 380 (9) 1,772 20.5 4,225 25 26 26 17 16 16 13.0 13.0 13.0 9.9 9.6 9.4 74 79 79 6.9 6.1 6.1 13 7
Jindal Steel and Power BUY 877 1,160 32 894 10.3 1,020 46 71 103 19 12 9 1.8 1.6 1.4 9.9 7.2 5.2 10 14 17 0.3 0.4 0.6 21 9
JSW Steel REDUCE 884 925 5 2,161 24.9 2,445 36 65 84 25 14 11 2.5 2.2 1.9 10.3 7.7 6.3 11 17 19 0.6 1.1 1.4 24 10
National Aluminium Co. REDUCE 192 250 30 352 4.1 1,837 25 21 22 8 9 9 2.0 1.8 1.6 4.5 5.3 4.7 29 21 19 5.3 4.3 4.6 56 17
NMDC SELL 60 70 17 528 6.1 8,792 8 8 7 8 8 8 1.8 1.6 1.4 4.8 4.8 5.1 25 21 17 5.3 5.2 4.7 31 13
SAIL SELL 100 55 (45) 413 4.8 4,130 2 4 4 42 28 26 0.7 0.7 0.7 8.7 8.3 8.4 2 3 3 0.7 1.1 1.1 26 8
Tata Steel SELL 123 135 10 1,535 17.7 12,486 5 11 14 26 11 9 1.6 1.4 1.3 8.7 6.2 5.7 6 14 15 1.3 2.3 2.8 60 23
Vedanta SELL 414 430 4 1,618 18.7 3,913 31 40 44 13 10 9 4.3 3.8 3.3 5.3 4.5 4.2 36 38 37 8.5 6.5 6.8 53 22
Metals & Mining Cautious 10,690 123.4 15.3 12.0 10.5 2.1 1.9 1.7 7.4 6.3 5.7 13.8 15.8 16.2 3.4 3.2 3.4 335 130
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
BPCL SELL 265 265 (0) 1,151 13.3 4,273 22 29 28 12 9 9 1.4 1.3 1.2 6.5 5.5 5.7 12 15 13 2.8 3.7 3.6 31 14
Coal India SELL 363 420 16 2,236 25.8 6,163 52 53 54 7 7 7 2.2 1.9 1.7 6.2 5.3 4.7 35 30 27 6.9 6.9 6.9 39 19
HPCL SELL 364 200 (45) 775 9.0 2,128 16 35 34 22 10 11 1.8 1.6 1.4 13.4 8.9 8.9 8 16 14 1.3 2.9 2.8 28 12
IOCL SELL 122 100 (18) 1,723 19.9 14,121 8 15 14 14 8 9 0.9 0.9 0.8 7.3 5.1 5.2 7 11 10 3.1 5.0 4.9 27 12
Oil India SELL 452 360 (20) 735 8.5 1,627 45 51 50 10 9 9 1.5 1.4 1.2 7.4 6.3 6.1 16 16 14 3.2 4.0 3.9 19 9
ONGC ADD 256 285 11 3,217 37.1 12,580 40 46 46 6 6 6 0.9 0.8 0.7 4.2 3.3 3.3 14 15 13 4.9 5.1 4.9 43 21
Reliance Industries ADD 1,240 1,405 13 16,779 193.7 13,532 51 62 71 24 20 18 2.0 1.8 1.6 11.6 9.6 8.0 8 9 10 — 0.4 0.5 226 138
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels Neutral 26,617 307.2 14.5 11.9 11.3 1.6 1.4 1.3 8.5 6.8 6.2 10.9 12.1 11.6 1.9 2.2 2.1 414 224
Pharmaceuticals
Alivus Life Sciences BUY 989 1,200 21 121 1.4 123 39 47 53 26 21 19 4.8 4.3 3.8 17 14 13 20 22 21 2.3 2.4 2.5 2 1
Aurobindo Pharma SELL 1,161 1,225 5 675 7.8 586 63 74 79 18 16 15 2.2 2.0 1.8 10 9 8 12 13 12 1.6 1.9 2.3 16 8
Biocon REDUCE 365 350 (4) 438 5.1 1,202 1 11 15 408 34 25 1.7 1.7 1.6 17 13 11 0 5 7 1.0 1.0 1.4 15 5
Blue Jet Healthcare ADD 570 550 (4) 99 1.1 173 12 16 21 48 35 28 9.6 7.6 6.1 36 24 19 22 24 24 0.2 0.2 0.3 2 1
Cipla BUY 1,439 1,725 20 1,162 13.4 806 59 64 64 25 22 23 3.8 3.4 3.0 16 14 14 16 16 14 0.9 1.0 1.0 41 24
Concord Biotech ADD 2,267 2,050 (10) 237 2.7 105 35 47 60 66 48 38 13.2 11.0 9.0 46 35 28 22 25 24 0.4 0.5 0.7 3 1
Divis Laboratories SELL 5,733 4,000 (30) 1,522 17.6 265 79 98 124 72 59 46 10.3 9.4 8.4 52 42 33 15 17 19 0.6 0.8 0.9 36 20
Dr Reddy's Laboratories REDUCE 1,335 1,295 (3) 1,114 12.9 832 68 70 62 20 19 22 3.4 2.9 2.6 12 12 12 19 16 12 0.7 0.8 0.8 31 18
Emcure Pharmaceuticals BUY 1,318 1,680 27 250 2.9 189 39 49 59 34 27 23 5.8 5.0 4.3 17 14 12 20 20 20 0.7 0.9 1.1 2
Gland Pharma REDUCE 1,695 1,625 (4) 279 3.2 164 49 63 77 35 27 22 3.0 2.9 2.6 19 15 13 9 11 13 1.4 1.5 1.7 6 3
JB Chemicals & Pharma BUY 1,761 2,325 32 274 3.2 157 44 55 63 40 32 28 8.0 6.7 5.6 25 21 18 22 23 22 0.6 0.6 0.7 4 3
Laurus Labs SELL 559 370 (34) 301 3.5 536 6 9 12 97 60 45 6.8 6.1 5.4 32 24 20 7 11 13 - - - 16 7
Lupin ADD 2,154 2,385 11 983 11.3 455 67 85 81 32 25 27 5.8 4.9 4.2 19 15 15 20 21 17 0.5 0.7 0.7 26 14
Mankind Pharma ADD 2,596 2,855 10 1,071 12.4 401 58 71 86 45 37 30 9.4 7.8 6.5 35 29 24 23 23 24 0.5 0.7 0.8 14 7
Sun Pharmaceuticals ADD 1,747 2,045 17 4,191 48.4 2,399 48 57 66 36 30 26 5.7 5.0 4.3 26 22 19 17 18 18 0.6 0.7 0.8 40 25
Torrent Pharmaceuticals REDUCE 3,235 3,300 2 1,095 12.6 338 58 74 91 56 44 36 13.2 10.7 8.7 29 25 21 26 27 27 0.5 0.5 0.6 20 11
Pharmaceuticals Neutral 13,813 159.5 35.6 29.5 26.7 5.1 4.5 4.0 21.9 18.5 16.7 14.3 15.3 14.9 0.5 0.6 0.7 275 145
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Price (Rs) Fair Value Upside Mkt cap. O/S shares EPS (Rs) P/E (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) ADV-3M (US$ mn)
Company Rating 13-Jan-25 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E Traded Delivered
Real Estate
Brigade Enterprises BUY 1,063 1,320 24 260 3.0 244 26 34 48 40 32 22 4.5 4.0 3.4 19 14 10 14 13 17 0.2 0.2 0.2 4 2
Brookfield India Real Estate Trust ADD 284 330 16 173 2.0 480 3 7 10 84 41 28 1.3 1.4 1.5 17 15 13 1 3 4 6.6 7.1 7.6 1 1
DLF BUY 711 960 35 1,759 20.3 2,475 17 22 31 43 32 23 4.2 3.8 3.4 86 41 29 10 12 16 0.8 1.0 1.1 31 13
Embassy Office Parks REIT ADD 370 425 — 351 4.1 948 25 12 16 15 30 23 1.5 1.6 1.6 15 13 12 10 5 7 6.2 6.7 7.2 3 3
Godrej Properties SELL 2,249 2,245 (0) 677 7.8 278 65 52 95 35 43 24 5.3 4.7 3.9 415 166 53 17 12 18 — — — 26 11
Macrotech Developers ADD 1,165 1,340 15 1,162 13.4 995 26 41 43 45 28 27 5.8 4.8 4.1 30 20 19 14 19 16 — — — 23 10
Mindspace REIT ADD 369 410 11 219 2.5 593 11 14 18 34 26 20 1.5 1.6 1.6 15 14 12 4 6 8 5.8 6.4 6.7 5 4
Nexus Select Trust ADD 137 155 13 208 2.4 1,515 4 5 6 34 28 24 1.5 1.5 1.6 16 15 14 4 5 6 6.0 6.6 7.2 1 1
Oberoi Realty REDUCE 2,013 1,825 (9) 732 8.5 364 56 86 120 36 23 17 4.6 3.8 3.1 25 16 11 14 18 21 0.5 0.6 0.7 34 16
Phoenix Mills REDUCE 1,529 1,465 (4) 547 6.3 357 35 44 46 44 34 33 5.2 4.5 4.0 22 18 16 12 14 13 0.2 0.2 0.2 14 7
Prestige Estates Projects ADD 1,427 1,830 28 615 7.1 408 22 26 47 64 55 30 3.4 3.4 3.1 22 18 12 6 6 11 0.1 0.2 0.2 14 7
Signature Global BUY 1,188 1,570 32 167 1.9 141 32 74 164 37 16 7 15.5 7.9 3.8 36 11 5 53 65 71 — — — 9 2
Sobha REDUCE 1,273 1,500 18 128 1.5 107 14 38 55 90 33 23 2.9 2.7 2.5 35 15 9 4 9 11 0.3 0.3 0.4 4 1
Sunteck Realty BUY 448 670 50 66 0.8 140 16 39 52 28 11 9 1.9 1.6 1.4 21 9 6 7 15 17 0.2 0.2 0.2 2 1
Real Estate Attractive 7,064 81.5 39.4 31.1 22.5 3.6 3.4 3.0 29.4 20.5 15.5 9.2 10.8 13.5 1.1 1.2 1.3 170 79
Renewable Energy
Premier Energies SELL 1,096 770 (30) 494 5.7 451 16 27 35 67 41 31 17.2 12.1 8.7 35 22 16 42 35 33 — — — - #N/A
Waaree Energies SELL 2,487 2,550 3 715 8.2 288 59 111 195 42 22 13 7.4 5.7 4.0 28 15 10 24 29 37 — — — - #N/A
Renewable Energy - 7,558 14.0 51.4 27.3 16.8 9.9 7.3 5.1 30.4 17.5 11.7 19.3 27 30 0.0 0.0 0.0 - #N/A
Retailing
Avenue Supermarts SELL 3,507 3,450 (2) 2,282 26.3 651 44 52 64 79 67 55 10.6 9.1 7.8 49 41 34 14 15 15 — — — 41 24
Metro Brands REDUCE 1,189 1,100 (7) 323 3.7 272 14 17 21 88 68 56 15.4 13.4 11.5 42 34 29 19 21 22 — 0.5 0.6 1 1
Titan Company REDUCE 3,383 3,275 (3) 3,003 34.7 888 42 52 62 80 66 55 26.2 20.5 16.3 51 43 37 36 35 33 0.4 0.5 0.6 45 24
Trent ADD 6,224 6,800 9 2,213 25.5 356 54 76 108 116 82 58 37.3 25.6 17.7 78 56 40 38 37 36 — — — 71 34
Retailing Neutral 5,609 90.3 88.1 70.2 55.6 19.0 15.4 12.4 55.5 45.0 36.5 22 22 22 0.2 0.2 0.2 158 83
Specialty Chemicals
Aarti Industries SELL 409 380 (7) 148 1.7 363 9 11 18 44 36 23 2.7 2.5 2.3 18 15 12 6 7 10 0.2 0.4 0.6 11 4
Aether Industries REDUCE 823 810 (2) 109 1.3 133 12 15 19 71 54 43 4.9 4.5 4.1 50 35 27 7 9 10 - - 0.0 1 1
Atul SELL 6,615 5,270 (20) 195 2.2 29 189 232 274 35 28 24 3.5 3.2 2.9 17 15 13 10 12 13 0.5 0.7 0.8 5 2
Castrol India SELL 180 190 6 178 2.1 989 9 11 11 19 17 16 7.9 7.2 6.6 13 12 11 42 44 44 4.5 4.7 5.0 9 3
Clean Science & Technology ADD 1,376 1,540 12 146 1.7 106 26 36 50 53 38 27 10.3 8.5 6.9 36 27 20 21 24 28 0.4 0.6 0.8 3 2
Deepak Nitrite SELL 2,328 1,990 (15) 318 3.7 136 59 69 81 40 34 29 5.7 5.0 4.3 28 25 22 15 16 16 0.3 0.3 0.3 9 3
Navin Fluorine REDUCE 3,618 3,310 (9) 179 2.1 50 50 86 119 72 42 30 7.0 6.2 5.3 42 27 20 10 16 19 0.3 0.5 0.7 9 4
Neogen Chemicals ADD 1,947 2,070 6 51 0.6 26 23 51 61 84 38 32 6.3 5.5 4.8 39 24 15 8 16 16 0.2 0.4 0.4 1 1
Pidilite Industries ADD 2,797 3,315 19 1,423 16.4 509 43 49 56 66 57 50 15.1 13.6 12.4 45 39 35 24 25 26 0.8 1.1 1.3 12 7
PI Industries REDUCE 3,400 4,000 18 516 6.0 152 120 131 147 28 26 23 5.0 4.3 3.7 21 19 16 19 18 17 0.4 0.6 0.6 13 7
S H Kelkar and Company BUY 215 370 72 30 0.3 138 10 12 17 21 18 13 2.3 2.1 1.8 10 9 7 11 12 15 1.2 1.1 1.5 1 1
SRF ADD 2,516 2,290 (9) 746 8.6 296 38 57 81 65 44 31 6.1 5.5 4.8 30 23 18 10 13 16 0.5 0.5 0.6 18 9
Vinati Organics SELL 1,650 1,200 (27) 171 2.0 104 37 46 57 45 36 29 6.1 5.4 4.6 30 24 19 15 16 17 0.3 0.4 0.5 1 1
Specialty Chemicals Neutral 4,210 48.6 46.7 38.1 31.2 6.8 6.1 5.3 28.9 24.1 20.1 14.5 15.9 17.1 0.7 0.9 1.0 94 44
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Price (Rs) Fair Value Upside Mkt cap. O/S shares EPS (Rs) P/E (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) ADV-3M (US$ mn)
Company Rating 13-Jan-25 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E Traded Delivered
Telecommunication Services
Bharti Airtel ADD 1,597 1,720 8 9,560 110.4 5,753 40 53 68 40 30 24 10.1 8.0 6.9 12 10 8 27 30 31 0.9 1.4 1.8 102 63
Indus Towers SELL 321 340 6 846 9.8 2,638 32 28 21 10 11 15 2.6 2.1 2.1 4 4 5 29 20 14 0.6 6.2 3.1 33 17
Vodafone Idea SELL 8 7 (10) 539 6.2 69,645 (4) (3) (3) NM NM NM NM NM NM 16 14 13 NM NM NM — — — 46 13
Tata Communications SELL 1,632 1,645 1 465 5.4 285 42 63 82 39 26 20 17.8 11.9 8.4 12 10 9 54 55 49 1.0 1.5 2.0 7 3
Telecommunication Services Attractive 11,411 131.7 206.4 76.8 48.2 67 32 25 11.4 9.6 8.3 33 42 52 0.8 1.7 1.8 188 96
Transportation
Adani Ports and SEZ BUY 1,067 1,570 47 2,304 26.6 2,160 48 59 65 22 18 16 3.7 3.2 2.7 15 13 11 18 19 18 0.7 0.8 0.9 67 26
Container Corp. SELL 728 740 2 444 5.1 609 22 27 32 33 27 23 3.6 3.4 3.1 19 17 14 11 13 14 1.4 1.6 2.0 11 5
Delhivery BUY 321 475 48 239 2.8 747 3 5 9 106 66 36 2.5 2.4 2.2 54 29 18 2 4 6 — — — 10 5
Gateway Distriparks ADD 76 103 35 38 0.4 500 5 6 6 17 14 12 1.8 1.7 1.6 11 10 8 11 13 14 2.4 2.7 2.9 1 1
GMR Airports SELL 70 77 10 736 8.5 6,036 (2) (0) 0 NM NM 160 NM NM NM 29 19 18 855 7 NM — — — 14 7
Gujarat Pipavav Port SELL 165 180 9 80 0.9 483 8 10 11 20 17 15 3.2 2.6 2.2 11 10 8 17 17 16 — — — 2 1
InterGlobe Aviation BUY 4,001 5,100 27 1,546 17.8 383 162 242 256 25 17 16 18.7 8.8 3.7 7 5 4 122 72 44 — — — 46 28
JSW Infrastructure SELL 288 240 (17) 604 7.0 2,119 6 7 8 46 39 35 6.7 5.9 24.4 28 25 24 15 16 16 0.5 0.5 0.6 8 4
Transportation Attractive 5,991 69.2 31.3 22.8 20.4 5.7 4.7 3.9 14.4 11.3 9.4 18.2 20 19.0 0.4 0.5 0.6 159 76
KIE universe 294,467 3,399 24.9 21.1 18.5 3.7 3.3 2.9 15.3 12.9 11.4 14.6 15.5 15.8 1.3 1.5 1.7
Notes:
(a) We have used adjusted book values for banking companies.
(b) 2024 means calendar year 2023, similarly for 2025 and 2026 for these particular companies.
(c) Exchange rate (Rs/US$)= 86.6
India Research
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58
60%
Percentage of companies within each category for which
50% Kotak Institutional Equities and or its affiliates has
provided investment banking services within the previous
12 months.
40% 37.8%
* The above categories are defined as follows: Buy = We
expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over
28.7%
30% the next 12 months; Add = We expect this stock to deliver
5-15% returns over the next 12 months; Reduce = We
19.6% expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over the next
20%
13.8% 12 months; Sell = We expect this stock to deliver less than
9.5% -5% returns over the next 12 months. Our target prices
10% are also on a 12-month horizon basis. These ratings are
3.3% 1.8% used illustratively to comply with applicable regulations. As
1.5%
of 30/09/2024 Kotak Institutional Equities Investment
0%
BUY ADD REDUCE SELL Research had investment ratings on 275 equity securities.
BUY. We expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months.
ADD. We expect this stock to deliver 5-15% returns over the next 12 months.
REDUCE. We expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over the next 12 months.
SELL. We expect this stock to deliver <-5% returns over the next 12 months.
Our Fair Value estimates are also on a 12-month horizon basis.Our Ratings System does not take into account short-term volatility in stock prices related
to movements in the market. Hence, a particular Rating may not strictly be in accordance with the Rating System at all times.
Other definitions
Coverage view. The coverage view represents each analyst’s overall fundamental outlook on the Sector. The coverage view will consist of one of the
following designations: Attractive, Neutral, Cautious.
Other ratings/identifiers
NR = Not Rated. The investment rating and fair value, if any, have been suspended temporarily. Such suspension is in compliance with applicable
regulation(s) and/or Kotak Securities policies in circumstances when Kotak Securities or its affiliates is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or
strategic transaction involving this company and in certain other circumstances.
RS = Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities Research has suspended the investment rating and fair value, if any, for this stock, because there is not a
sufficient fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or fair value. The previous investment rating and fair value, if any, are no longer in
effect for this stock and should not be relied upon.
NA = Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable.
NM = Not Meaningful. The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded.
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