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Uber Nirbhai

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Unlevered Free Cash Flow (mm)

Fiscal Year 2018A 2019A 2020A


Revenue 10,433 13,000 11,139
COGS 4,786 6,061 5,154
Gross Profit 5,647 6,939 5,985
Operating Expenses 1,516 2,302 1,819
Selling, General, Administrative 6,738 12,791 8,454
Total Operating Expenses 8,254 15,093 10,273
EBITDA (2,607) (8,154) (4,288)
Depreciation & Amortization 426 472 575
Operating Profit (EBIT) (3,033) (8,626) (4,863)
Operating Taxes (1,031) (2,933) (1,021)
NOPAT (Net Operating Profit After Taxes) (2,002) (5,693) (3,842)
(+) Depreciation & Amortization 426 472 575
(-) Capital Expenditures (558) (558) (616)
(-) Change in NWC (1,409) (3,887) 5,269
NWC 4,399 8,286 3,017
Unlevered Free Cash Flow (3,543) (9,666) 1,386

Year 2018 2019 2020


Tax Rate 34% 34% 21%

Working Capital 2017 2018 2019


Current Assests 6837 8,658.00 13,925.00
Current Liabilities 3847 4,259.00 5,639.00
Working capital 2990 4,399.00 8,286.00

Assumptions 2018A 2019A 2020A


Revenue Growth 24.60% -14.32%
COGS as % of Revenue 45.87% 46.62% 46.27%
OPEX as % of Revenue 79.11% 116.10% 92.23%
SG&A as % of Revenue 64.58% 98.39% 75.90%
Tax % of EBIT 34.00% 34.00% 21.00%
Current Assets as % of Revenue 82.99% 107.12% 88.72%
Current Liability as % of Revenue 40.82% 43.38% 61.63%

(1.61)
2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
16,709 30,075 52,632 89,474 162,843
9,351 17,143 30,526 53,237 81,421
7,358 12,932 22,105 36,237 81,421
2,506 3,008 5,263 8,947 16,284
9,190 9,023 10,526 17,895 30,126
11,696 12,030 15,790 26,842 46,410
(4,338) 902 6,316 9,395 35,011
1,011 1,066 1,125 1,187 1,252
(5,349) (164) 5,191 8,208 33,759
(1,123) (34) 1,090 1,724 7,089
(4,226) (130) 4,101 6,484 26,670
1,011 1,066 1,125 1,187 1,252
(298) (252) (266) (280) (296)
(4,390) (5,324) (8,495) (13,069) (24,865)
7,407 12,731 21,226 34,295 59,160
(7,903) (4,639) (3,535) (5,678) 2,761

2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E


21% 21% 21% 21% 21%

2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E


9,882.00 15528.73 26748.71 44704.97 72419.49 125289.76
6,865.00 8121.98 14018.06 23478.97 38124.77 66130.22
3,017.00 7,406.75 12,730.65 21,226.00 34,294.72 59,159.54

2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E


50.00% 80.00% 75.00% 70.00% 82.00%
55.97% 57.00% 58.00% 59.50% 50.00%
15.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00%
55.00% 30.00% 20.00% 20.00% 18.50%
21.00% 21.00% 21.00% 21.00% 21.00%
92.94% 88.94% 84.94% 80.94% 76.94%
48.61% 46.61% 44.61% 42.61% 40.61%
Revenue
162

89,474

52,632

30,075
13,000 16,709
10,433 11,139

2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024A 202

Unlevered Free Cash Flow


8

1
(12,000) (10,000) (8,000) (6,000) (4,000) (2,000) -- 2,000 4,00
ue
162,843

89,474

52,632

,075

022A 2023A 2024A 2025A

ash Flow
8

1
2,000) -- 2,000 4,000
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
Equity 12967.00
Debt 9,041.00
Cost of Debt 5.07%
Tax Rate 21.00%
D/(D+E) 0.4108
After Tax Cost of Debt 4.002%

Risk Free Rate (10-Yr Treasury Yield) 0.89%


Expected Market Return 10.00%
Market Risk Premium 5.70%
Levered Beta 0.98
E/(D+E) 0.59
Cost of Equity 6.4253%

WACC 5.43%
Note: this rate is very low due to a number of factors, including the COVID-19 pandemic and
the Federal Reserve's decision to take extraordinary measures to stimulate the economy.
The last Data taken is of 2020.
Unlevered Free Cash Flow (mm)
Fiscal Year 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021E
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -3,543 -9,666 1,386 -7,903

Projection Year 1
Present Value of Free Cash Flow -7,496

Implied Share Price Calculation


Sum of PV of FCF -17,162
Growth Rate 3.00%
WACC 5.43%
Terminal Value 117,045.14
PV of Terminal Value 89,853.92
Enterprise Value 72,691.65
(+) Cash 5,647.00
(-) Debt 21,483.00
(-) Minority Interest 701

WACC
Equity Value 56,154.65
Diluted Shares Outstanding(mm) 1753
Implied Share Price Calculation 32.03
h Flow (mm)
2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
-4,639 -3,535 -5,678 2,761

2 3 4 5
-4,174 -3,017 -4,596 2,120

Sensitivity Table
Growth Rate
32.03 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 4.00%
4.43%
4.93%
5.43%
5.93%
6.43%
Fixed Assets Schedule
2018A 2019A
PP&E 1,641 1,731
D&A 426 472
Capex (558) (558)
Ending PPE 1,773 1,817

Assumptions for D&A and Capex


Fiscal Year 2018A 2019A
D&A as a % of Beginning PP&E 26.0% 27.3%
CapEx as a % of Beginning PP&E -34.0% -32.2%

Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 32.15


Days Payable Outstanding (DPO) 11.44

NOTE:

1. All the values are in million dollars

2. We have assumed Present year to be 2020(instead of 2019


according to question) and model is based upon that thereby
incorporating COVID impact on economy and hence giving better
valuation
3. All the data has been taken from Uber Annual report 2020 and 2019 and instead of Standalone financial data of Uber
4. Implied Share Price which we get is in $

A:Actual
E: Estimated
2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
1,826 1,926 2,032 2,143 2,261 2,385
575 1,011 1,066 1,125 1,187 1,252
(616) -298 -252 -266 -280 -296
1,867 1,213 1,217 1,284 1,354 1,429

2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E


31.5% 52.5% 52.5% 52.5% 52.5% 52.5%
-33.7% -15.5% -12.4% -12.4% -12.4% -12.4%

ndalone financial data of Uber India, we have considered consolidated Balance Sheet and Income Statement Data
Balance Sheet 2018 2019 2020
Cash 6,406.00 10,873.00 5,647.00
Short-term investments - 440.00 1,180.00
Restricted cash 67.00 99.00 250.00
Accounts receivable 919.00 1,214.00 1,073.00
Prepaid expense 860.00 1,299.00 1,215.00
Assets held for sale 406.00 - 517.00
Total Current Assets 8,658.00 13,925.00 9,882.00

Accounts payable 150.00 272.00 235.00


Short-term insurance reserves 941.00 1,121.00 1,243.00
Operating lease liabilities - 196.00 175.00
Accrued other current liabilities 3,157.00 4,050.00 5,112.00
Liabilities held for sale 11.00 - 100.00
Total Current Liabilities 4,259.00 5,639.00 6,865.00
Other Non Curent Liabilities 3,529.00
Long-term insurance reserves 1,996.00 2,297.00 2,223.00
Other Long term liability 1,306.00
Long-term debt 6,869.00 5,707.00 7,560.00
Total Liabilities 21,483.00
(all the data are in Millions $)

Debt 9,041.00
Equity 12967.00
Income Statement 2018 2019
Revenue 10,433.00 13,000.00
Cost of Revenue 4,160 5,623
Operating Expense 8,254.00 15,063.00
COGS 4,786.00 6,061.00
Depreciation and Amortization 426.00 472.00
Total Costs and Expenses 13,466.00 21,596.00
Loss from operations (3,033.00) (8,596.00)
Interest Expense (648.00) (559.00)
Other Income(expense), net 4,993.00 722.00
Income (loss) before taxes and loss from equity method investments 1,312.00 (8,433.00)
Provision for(benefit from) income taxes 283.00 45.00
loss from equity method investments (42.00) (34.00)
Net income(loss) including non-controlling interests 987.00 (8,512.00)
Less: net loss attributable to non-controlling intrests (10.00) (6.00)
Net income(loss) 997.00 (8,506.00)

(3.86)
2020
11,139.00
7,208
10,273.00
5,154.00
575.00
16,002.00
(4,863.00)
(458.00)
(1,625.00)
(6,946.00)
(192.00)
(34.00)
(6,768.00)
(20.00)
(6,768.00)

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