Location via proxy:   [ UP ]  
[Report a bug]   [Manage cookies]                
0% found this document useful (0 votes)
3 views

Topic 2_Discrete Random Variables and Probability Distributions

The document discusses probability distributions for discrete random variables, detailing how probabilities are assigned to different values and the conditions for a valid probability mass function (pmf). It includes examples of pmfs derived from experiments such as tossing coins and rolling dice, as well as the cumulative distribution function (cdf) and its relationship to the pmf. Additionally, it covers the Bernoulli random variable and methods for obtaining pmfs from given cdfs.

Uploaded by

Puneet Arora
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
0% found this document useful (0 votes)
3 views

Topic 2_Discrete Random Variables and Probability Distributions

The document discusses probability distributions for discrete random variables, detailing how probabilities are assigned to different values and the conditions for a valid probability mass function (pmf). It includes examples of pmfs derived from experiments such as tossing coins and rolling dice, as well as the cumulative distribution function (cdf) and its relationship to the pmf. Additionally, it covers the Bernoulli random variable and methods for obtaining pmfs from given cdfs.

Uploaded by

Puneet Arora
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 25

Probability Distributions for Discrete Random

Variables
The probability distribution of a discrete random variable X tells us how the total
probability of 1 is distributed among the possible X values.

For example, the probability distribution in the case of simultaneous toss of three coins
will tell us how the probability of 1 is subdivided among the four possible values—
how much probability is associated with the X value 0, how much is apportioned to the
X value 1, and so on. We will use the following notation for the probabilities in the
distribution:

In general, p(x) or f(x) will denote the probability assigned to the value x.

p(1) = the probability of the X value 1 = P(X =1)


p(0) = the probability of the X value 0 = P(X = 0)

1
1
Probability Distributions for Discrete Random
Variables
The probability distribution or the probability mass function (pmf) of a discrete
random variable is defined for every value of the random variable x by
𝑝 𝑥 =𝑓 𝑥 =𝑃 𝑋=𝑥

The values of X along with their probabilities collectively specify the pmf.

A function can serve as the probability distribution or pmf of a discrete random


variable X if and only if its values f(x) or p(x) satisfy the conditions:

(a) 𝑝 𝑥 ≥ 0 ∀ 𝑥
(b) σ 𝑝 𝑥 = 1

2
2
Numericals

Q1. Find the probability distribution or the pmf of the sum of numbers obtained on
throwing a pair of dice.

3
3
Sample Space of the Experiment Probability Distribution or pmf
x f(x) = p(x) = P(X=x)
(1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
(2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6) 2 1/36
(3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6) 3 2/36
(4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
4 3/36
(5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
(6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6) 5 4/36
6 5/36
Sum of the Numbers 7 6/36
234567 8 5/36
345678
9 4/36
456789
10 3/36
5 6 7 8 9 10
6 7 8 9 10 11 11 2/36
7 8 9 10 11 12 12 1/36
It is a valid pmf because 𝑝 𝑥 ≥ 0 ∀ 𝑥 and 4

σ𝑝 𝑥 = 1 4
Numericals

Q2. Consider a group of five potential blood donors—a, b, c, d, and e—of whom only
a and b have O+ type blood. Five blood samples, one from each individual, will be
typed in random order until an O+ individual is identified.

Let the rv Y = the number of typings necessary to identify an O+ individual. Find the
pmf of Y.

(Blood typing is the test to determine blood group)

5
5
Y = the number of typings required to identify an O+ individual.
(There are 5 people, 2 (a and b) are O+. So number of typings required to identify an
O+ people are 1,2,3 and 4

p(1)=f(1)=P(a or b typed first) = 2/5 = 0.4

p(2)=f(2)=P(c, d, or e first, and then a or b) =


P(c, d, or e first).P(a or b next | c, d, or e first) =(3/5).(2/4)=3/10=0.3

p(3)=f(3)=P(c, d, or e first, c, d or e second, and then a or b) = (3/5).(2/4).(2/3)=0.2

p(4)=f(4)=P(c, d, or e first, c, d or e second, c, d or e third and then a or b) =


(3/5).(2/4).(1/3)(2/2)=1/10=0.1

6
6
In tabular form, the pmf is: A line graph of the pmf is:

Another useful pictorial representation of a pmf, called a probability histogram.


Above each y with p(y)>0, construct a rectangle centered at y. The height of each
rectangle is proportional to p(y), and the base is the same for all rectangles.

p(y)

y
7
7
Bernoulli Random Variable
• Suppose an experiment is performed with two possible outcomes: either success or
failure. Success happens with probability p while failure happens with probability 1-
p.

• A random variable that takes value 1 in case of success and 0 in case of failure is
called a Bernoulli Random Variable.

• Alternatively, the variable is said to follow a Bernoulli Distribution.

8
8
Bernoulli Random Variable

9
9
Cumulative Distribution Function (cdf)
• For some fixed value x, we often wish to compute the probability that the observed
value of X will be at most x.

• The cumulative distribution function (cdf) F(x) of a discrete rv variable X with pmf
p(x) or f(x) is defined for every number x by

𝐹 𝑥 = 𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 𝑥 = ෍ 𝑓 𝑡 𝑓𝑜𝑟 − ∞ < 𝑥 < ∞


𝑡≤𝑥
The values F(x) of the distribution function of a discrete random variable X satisfy the
conditions:

1. 𝐹 −∞ = 0 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐹 ∞ = 1
2. 𝐼𝑓 𝑎 < 𝑏, 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝐹 𝑎 ≤ 𝐹 𝑏 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑎𝑛𝑦 𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑎 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑏
10
10
Numericals

Q. Find the distribution function of the total number of heads obtained in four tosses
of a balanced coin.

11
11
Numericals
Sample Space:
HHHH, HHHT, HHTH, HHTT, HTHH, HTHT, HTTH, HTTT, THHH, THHT,
THTH, THTT, TTHH, TTHT, TTTH, TTTT

X= Total Number of Heads Obtained. The possible values of X are 0,1,2,3,4

First find out the pmf of X i.e. the probability associated with each value of the
random variable X.

p(0)=f(0)=P(X=0)=1/16
p(1)=f(1)=P(X=1)=4/16
p(2)=f(2)=P(X=2)=6/16
p(3)=f(3)=P(X=3)=4/16
p(4)=f(4)=P(X=4)=1/16
12
12
Numericals

1
𝐹 0 =𝑃 𝑋≤0 =𝑓 0 =
16

𝐹 1 = 𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 1 = 𝑓 0 + 𝑓(1) = 5/16

𝐹 2 = 𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 2 = 𝑓 0 + 𝑓 1 + 𝑓(2) = 11/16

𝐹 3 = 𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 3 = 𝑓 0 + 𝑓 1 + 𝑓 2 + 𝑓(3) = 15/16

𝐹 4 = 𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 4 = 𝑓 0 + 𝑓 1 + 𝑓 2 + 𝑓 3 + 𝑓(4) = 1

13
13
Hence, the distribution function is given by:
0 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑥 < 0
1
𝑓𝑜𝑟 0 ≤ 𝑥 < 1
16
5
𝑓𝑜𝑟 1 ≤ 𝑥 < 2
𝐹 𝑥 = 16
11
𝑓𝑜𝑟 2 ≤ 𝑥 < 3
16
15
𝑓𝑜𝑟 3 ≤ 𝑥 < 4
16
1 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑥 ≥ 4

Notice that pmf is defined only at the possible values of the random variable.
However, the distribution function is defined for all values in the interval −∞ < 𝑥
<∞
𝑓 1.8 = 𝑃 𝑋 = 1.8 = 0
𝐹 1.8 = 𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 1.8 = 𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 1 = 𝑃 𝑋 = 0 + 𝑃 𝑋 = 1 = 𝐹 1 = 5/16
14
14
Numericals

Q.

Find the cumulative distribution function of Y.

15
15
𝐹 1 = 𝑃 𝑌 ≤ 1 = 𝑓 1 = 0.05

𝐹 2 = 𝑃 𝑌 ≤ 2 = 𝑓 1 + 𝑓(2) = 0.15

𝐹 4 = 𝑃 𝑌 ≤ 4 = 𝑓 1 + 𝑓 2 + 𝑓(4) = 0.5

𝐹 8 = 𝑃 𝑌 ≤ 8 = 𝑓 1 + 𝑓 2 + 𝑓 4 + 𝑓(8) = 0.9

𝐹 16 = 𝑃 𝑌 ≤ 16 = 𝑓 1 + 𝑓 2 + 𝑓 4 + 𝑓 8 + 𝑓(16) = 1
Now for any other number y, F(y) will equal the value of F at the closest possible
value of Y to the left of y. For example,
F(7.999) = P(Y ≤ 7.999) = P(Y ≤ 4) = F(4) = 0 .50
F(2.7) = P(Y ≤ 2.7) = P(Y ≤ 2) = F(2) = 0 .15

If y is less than 1, F(y)=0


If y is at least 16, F(y)=1 16
16
Hence, the distribution function is given by:

0 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑦 < 1
0.05 𝑓𝑜𝑟 1 ≤ 𝑦 < 2
0.15 𝑓𝑜𝑟 2 ≤ 𝑦 < 4
𝐹 𝑦 =
0.5 𝑓𝑜𝑟 4 ≤ 𝑦 < 8
0.90 𝑓𝑜𝑟 8 ≤ 𝑥 < 16
1 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑥 ≥ 16

17
17
Line Graph of the cdf (Step Function)

18
18
Obtaining Probability Mass Function (pmf) from
Cumulative Distribution Function (cdf)
• In examples thus far, the cdf has been derived from the pmf.
• This process can be reversed to obtain the pmf from the cdf whenever the latter
function is available.
• Suppose the possible values of a random variable X are 0,1,…,6.

Then p(3)=f(3)=[p(0)+p(1)+p(2)+p(3)]- [p(0)+p(1)+p(2)] = F(3) – F(2)

• Also, the probability that X falls in a specified interval can be obtained from the cdf.
For example:

𝑃 2≤𝑋 ≤4 =𝑝 2 +𝑝 3 +𝑝 4
= p 0 +p 1 +p 2 +p 3 +p 4 − p 0 +p 1 = F 4 − F(1)

19
19
Obtaining Probability Mass Function (pmf) from
Cumulative Distribution Function (cdf)
• Notice that 𝑃 2 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 4 ≠ F 4 − F(2) because the X value 2 is included in
2 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 4. So, we do not want to subtract out its probability.

• F 4 − F 2 will actually give us 𝑃 2 < 𝑋 ≤ 4 .

• Proposition: For any two numbers a and b with 𝑎 ≤ 𝑏, 𝑃 𝑎 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 𝑏 = 𝐹 𝑏


− 𝐹 𝑎−
• 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑎− represents the largest possible X value that is strictly less than a

• Note that F(b)-F(a) gives 𝑃 𝑎 < 𝑋 ≤ 𝑏

20
20
Numericals

Q. If X has the distribution function


0, 𝑥<1
1/3, 1≤𝑥<4
1
, 4≤𝑥<6
𝐹 𝑥 = 2
5
, 6 ≤ 𝑥 < 10
6
1, 𝑥 ≥ 10

(a) Find the probability distribution of X


(b) Find 𝑃 2 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 6
(c) 𝑃 2 < 𝑋 ≤ 6
(d) Find P(X=4)
21
21
𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑅𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑜𝑚 𝑉𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑎𝑟𝑒 1,4,6,10 (𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑒
𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑓𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒𝑠)
1
𝐹 1 =𝑃 𝑋≤1 =𝑓 1 =
3
1 1 1 1
𝐹 4 =𝑃 𝑋 ≤4 =𝑓 1 +𝑓 4 = →𝑓 4 =𝐹 4 −𝑓 1 = − =
2 2 3 6
5
𝐹 6 =𝑃 𝑋 ≤6 =𝑓 1 +𝑓 3 +𝑓 6 =
6
5 1 1 4 1 1
= + +𝑓 6 →𝑓 6 = − =
6 3 6 6 3 3

𝐹 10 = 𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 10 = 𝑓 1 + 𝑓 4 + 𝑓 6 + 𝑓 10 = 1

5 1
𝑓 10 = 1 − =
6 6

22
22
𝐻𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒, 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑚𝑓 𝑖𝑠:
1
, 𝑥=1
3
1
, 𝑥=4
6
𝑓 𝑥 = 1
, 𝑥=6
3
1
, 𝑥 = 10
6
0, 𝑒𝑙𝑠𝑒𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒

5 1 1
(b) 𝑃 2 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 6 = F 6 − F 1 = − =
6 3 2

1
(c) 𝑃 2 < 𝑋 ≤ 6 = 𝐹 6 − 𝐹 2 = 𝐹 6 − 𝐹 1 =
2
1 1 1
𝑑 𝑃 𝑋 =4 =𝐹 4 −𝐹 1 = − =
2 3 6 23
23
Q. If X has the distribution function - 0, 𝑥 < −1
1
, −1 ≤ 𝑥 < 1
4
1
𝐹 𝑥 = , 1≤𝑥<3
2
3
, 3≤𝑥<5
4
1, 𝑥 ≥ 5

(a) Find the probability distribution of X


(b) Find 𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 3
(c) Find 𝑃 𝑋 = 3
(d) Find P(X<3)
(e) Find 𝑃 𝑋 ≥ 1
(f) Find 𝑃 −0.4 < 𝑋 < 4
(g) Find P(X=5) 24
24

You might also like