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An Overview of The Changing Financial-Services Sector: Ayesha Afzal Assistant Professor

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Lahore

School of Economics

An Overview of the Changing Financial-Services Sector


Ayesha Afzal Assistant Professor

Lahore School of Economics

Introduc5on to Theory of Financial Intermedia5on


The Essence of Financial Economics
Op3mal Investment Absence of Arbitrage Equilibrium in Financial Markets

Arrow Debreu (1954) Neoclassical Perfect World


Financial Assets are Fairly Priced Informa5on Symmetries Decit and Surplus Units can locate each other.

Lahore School of Economics

Transac5on Costs Search Costs Verica3on Costs Monitoring Costs Enforcement Costs

Monitoring and Supervision

Asymmetric Informa5on Adverse Selec3on Moral Hazard Audit

Funds Lent Value crea3on through nancial services and instruments

Funds Lent Risk management agents on behalf of depositors

Surplus Units (Households)

Financial Intermediary (Bank)

Decit Units (Firms)

Failure to meet Financial Obliga3ons Lead to Systemic Risk

Default Risk Concentra3on on Credit Books

Lahore School of Economics

Why Financial Intermediaries are Important in Pakistan


Situa5on of Capital Markets in Pakistan
2006 2007 Equities Listed Companies Listed Capital (Rs in million) Market Capitalization (million) New Companies Listed Listed Capital (in million) 651 515,029.54 2,766,583.84 9 14,789.76 654 671,269.47 4,329,909.79 14 57,239.93 653 750,477.55 1,858,698.90 10 15,312.12 651 814,478.74 2,705,879.83 4 8,755.74 644 919,161.26 3,268,948.59 6 33,438.45 2008 2009 2010

Debt Instruments New Debt Instruments Listed Amount Listed (in million) 3 3,400.00 3 6,500.00 7 25,256.97 1 3,000.00 4 5,650.18

Source: Karachi Stock Exchange

Lahore School of Economics

Why Financial Intermediaries are Important in Pakistan


Table 1: Corporate Financing by Financial System (PKR in Billion)
Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Banks 873 1076 1270 1520 2016 2065 IPO 21.70 9.80 3.00 4.90 6.90 1.10 TFC 0.00 6.60 3.00 4.00 12.60 0.00 Total Financing 894.70 1092.40 1276.00 1528.90 2035.50 2066.10 Bank Financing as % of Total 97.57% 98.50% 99.53% 99.42% 99.04% 99.95%

Source: KSE, SBP, SECP

Lahore School of Economics

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The Dierent Kinds of Financial Service Firms Calling Themselves Banks


Commercial Banks Savings Banks Cooperative Banks Mortgage Banks Community Banks Money Center Banks Investment Banks Merchant Banks International Banks Wholesale Banks Retail Banks Limited Purpose Banks Bankers Banks Minority Banks National Banks State Banks Insured Banks Member Banks Affiliated Banks Virtual Banks Fringe Banks Universal Banks

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The Financial Service Compe5tors of Banks


Savings Associations Credit Unions Money Market Funds Mutual Funds (Investment Companies) Hedge Funds Security Brokers and Dealers Investment Banks Finance Companies Financial Holding Companies Life and Property-Casualty Insurance Companies

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Tradi5onal Services Oered By Banks


Carrying Out Currency Exchange Discounting Commercial Notes and Making Business Loans Offering Savings Deposits Safekeeping of Valuables Supporting Government Activities with Credit Offering Checking Accounts Offering Trust Services

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More Recent Services Oered by Banks


Granting Consumer Loans Providing Financial Advice Managing Cash Offering Equipment Leasing Making Venture Capital Loans Selling Insurance Policies Selling Retirement Plans

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Offering Security Brokerage and Investment Banking Services


Underwriting Securities Offering Mutual Funds and Annuities Offering Merchant Banking Services Offering Risk Management and Hedging Services

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Trends Affecting Banks and Other Financial Service Firms Today


Service Prolifera3on Rising Compe33on Government Deregula3on Increased Interest Rate Sensi3vity Technological Change and Automa3on Consolida3on and Geographic Expansion E-Banking and E-Commerce Convergence Globaliza3on

Lahore School of Economics

Banks hire dull people and train them to be even more dull. If they look conservative, it's only because their loans go bust on rare, very rare occasions. But (...)bankers are not conservative at all. They are just phenomenally skilled at selfdeception by burying the possibility of a large, devastating loss under the rug.

Lahore School of Economics

Globaliza;on creates interlocking fragility, while reducing vola;lity and giving the appearance of stability. We have never lived before under the threat of a global collapse. Financial Ins;tu;ons have been merging into a smaller number of very large banks. Almost all banks are interrelated - when one fails, they all fall. The increased concentra;on among banks seems to have the eect of making nancial crises less likely, but when they happen they are more global in scale and hit us very hard. True, we now have fewer failures, but when they occur .I shiver at the thought.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb The Black Swan

** Taleb has been credited with making predictions regarding financial crises and making a fortune (over USD 12 Bln) out of the 2008 crisis - Taleb is a visiting professor at Wharton and University of Paris Dauphine

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