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Green: Future Christchurch: A Economy
Green: Future Christchurch: A Economy
a GREEN economy
Zhi Jian (David) Wong
4937263
University of Auckland
2 Future Christchurch: A Green Economy | Introduction | Thesis Statement
Thesis Statement
Out of crisis arises opportunity; the devastating
earthquakes in Christchurch provides
the chance to implement green economic
strategies to become a sustainable prototype
model for the rest of the world to learn from.
This thesis is about transitioning Christchurch
to be a more sustainable economy in which it
aims to make Christchurch a Zero-Carbon city
by 2035. Architecture in this instance will act
as an economic catalyst for this transition to
happen because it is the very fabric of the city.
CURRENT GLOBAL SITUATION
We are currently living in a world with nite
resources. The age of the industrial economy is
over and we are entering a new age dened by
exponential innovation. Human beings have
always used technology to overcome obstacles;
the industrial age for instance was a product of
cheap fuels and the invention of assembly line
production. This was an age of manual labor
and high costs to the planets natural resources.
As a consequence today we are faced with
climate change, dangerously high pollution
levels and negative health efects due to how
we have used our planets recourses; the time is
now to use technology and innovation to solve
the urgent environmental challenges. I agree
with Einstein when he said, we cant solve
problems by using the same kind of thinking
we used when we created them. (Einstein) In
order to solve our current global economic and
environmental crisis, we need a completely
new system and not just one where we improve
the current way of operating. Fortunately
because we live in an age of innovation
there are many sustainable solutions being
developed, at the moment they often remain
as untested theories yet to be put into practice.
CHRISTCHURCH TODAY AND TOMORROW
After the devastating earthquakes of 2010 and
2011, the city of Christchurch was left with its
Central Business District (CBD) in ruins and
its infrastructure heavily damaged. At the
time of writing this thesis it is estimated that
approximately 8000 buildings will have to be
demolished in the whole of Christchurch (3
News, 2012) and the estimated total costs of
the earthquake to the government will be $13
Billion New Zealand Dollars (NZD); with the
estimated cost of rebuilding Christchurchs
infrastructure (NZD) to be $2 Billion. (Fairfax
NZ News, 2011) Additionally 30,000 homes are
in need of serious repair with each exceeding
more than $100,000 in damage costs. (Fairfax
NZ News, 2011) Christchurch is now faced
with the largest reconstruction project in
New Zealand history, but with this they have
the unique opportunity to recongure the
urban plan to create a more efcient and
sustainable city. The question is, will the
people of Christchurch choose to rebuild in
the same way it was before, or will they take
this opportunity to rebuild a sustainable and
resilient city that is prepared for the future?
WHAT IS SUSTAINABLE?
We hear the phrases, sustainable and green
used often, but what does it mean to be
sustainable and what are green principles?
For the sake of this thesis, I have dened
sustainability as the ability to sustain or
maintain development without compromising
resources for future generations for the sake
of short-term gains. Through this research
lead design thesis I will describe how a
green economy could rejuvenate the city of
Christchurch and at the same time dispel
the common perception that economics and
sustainability are mutually incompatible.
Investing in a green economy is a viable
catalyst for regeneration for Christchurch
because:
- Firstly because New Zealand claims to be
clean and green and particularly the South
Island which is known for its beautiful scenic
natural environments. Further, Christchurchs
identity is the Garden City, which if taken
seriously could be the impetus behind
promoting a green economy.
- Secondly, with the impending global energy
crisis, the age of cheap energy is over. Because
we have passed peak oil, we need to start
planning how to supply our growing energy
demands with renewable sources.
- Which leads me to my third point,
Christchurch is fortunate with an abundance
of water, long solar hours, and arable land.
The geographic location of Christchurch is
positioned well to take advantage of its natural
resources and create a sustainable energy
strategy to support the city.
- And lastly, the size of Christchurch makes
it a perfect candidate to be a prototype city to
test a holistic energy strategy. Christchurch
has a population of approximately 370,000
inhabitants; which makes it large enough to be
relevant as a major city centre but also small
enough for technology and infrastructure to
be implemented quickly and efciently. The
speed of adoption and evaluation can be
0.1 Thesis Statement
3 Zhi Jian (David) Wong
analyzed a lot faster in Christchurch compared
to a large metropolitan city, where various
governing bodies may impede such a progress.
ENERGY
At the heart of a green economy is energy
use. In Christchurch, electricity comes mainly
from renewable sources, particularly the hydro
electricity dams in Benmore, Manapouri, and
Clyde. (EECA) The energy produced from
these hydroelectric dams is then feed into a
centralized grid and distributed across the
country. A centralized power grid is vulnerable
to failure due to unforeseen circumstances,
which can leave large areas without power.
The reason being is that it only takes one of the
connections into the main grid to fail to leave
an entire city without power. Such was the
case following the February 2011 earthquakes,
as was made evident in the increased amount
of diesel usage as a back-up source for power.
(Christchurch Agency for Energy, 2012)
Diesel and Petrol is a fossil fuel that powers
the Internal Combustion Engine (I.C.E) of our
cars in which these land transportation fuels
is a majority of 60% of the citys total energy
demand. The result of using these fossil fuels
as a source of energy contributes to the air
pollution in Christchurch; which is costing
the city $168 million per annum. (Spronken-
Smith, 2002) There are more efcient forms
of transportation such as the electric vehicles
(EV) in which they run on electricity stored
in batteries. The method in which we use our
private vehicles can also be improved as above
90% of private car users are single occupants;
which leads to inefciencies and congestion.
Another contributing factor to air pollution
is the use of domestic log burning replaces
which often heat homes that lack insulation
and therefore demand greater heating loads
particularly during the winter months. The
unfortunate consequence is increased health
costs due to the particulates in the air, which
could be minimized substantially through
retrotting buildings and replacing the
inefcient log burning replaces with more
efcient lower emission design. Christchurch
has the unique opportunity to rebuild
and repair large parts of the city, which if
managed appropriately means they could
seize this opportunity and invest in upgrading
their existing buildings to improve energy
efciency, while building new buildings to be
superior in their energy use. For example, by
adding ceiling insulation in a pre 1960s house,
which typically does not have insulation, a cost
to benet ratio could be 7 times the investment
over a 30 year period. In other words the cost
of retrotting this house with insulation would
benet the residents 7 more times than it costs
to install the insulation over a period of 30
years. (Beacon Pathway Limited, 2009)There
is a common perception that the relationship
between a buildings economic efciency
and its energy efciency are mutually
exclusive; but the truth is the opposite. In
todays technologically advanced systems of
construction and building techniques, we are
able to design options that can reduce costs
because of the savings in energy usage.
INVISIBLE ECONOMY
Unfortunately while the government purports
to be green, their actions are often conicting
and they lack the ability to support planning
for long term benets, as is seen from their
recent commitments to start oil and fossil
fuel exploration at the expense of the natural
environment. There are various examples of
what happens when the government takes
proprietary control over natural resources that
show their short sightedness and motivation
is focused on immediate gains. An example
of this can been seen in China when they
expanded their timber industry and caused
excessive deforestation, which consequently
efected the environment. The market price
for timber was only half of what the Chinese
had to pay due to external environmental
costs such as desertication and loss of water
runof. (TEEB The Economics of Ecosystems
and Biodiversity, 2011) The reason why this
happens is largely due to the fact that the
natural economy is an invisible one, by this
I mean the cost of natural resources and
their benets beyond their commercial value
are often not calculated into their true costs.
Unfortunately when something is given for
free, the human mentality tends to make this
mean it has no value. Therefore when you try
and weight the pros and cons of development
at the expense of natural environments, there
seems to be no loss of value but only prot
to be made. However as described in the
previous example, when you actually take into
account the invisible economy of ecosystems;
the remaining balance is quite diferent. The
person who benet from such short-term
decisions is the few that stand to make a prot;
whereas it is the majority who will ultimately
bear the costs of their actions. The reason
policies like these have gone through in the
past is because the hidden external costs of
such decisions has be blinded by the illusionary
great short term gains. Thankfully, this
4
0.1 Thesis Statement
Future Christchurch: A Green Economy | Introduction | Thesis Statement
notion of the invisible economy is starting
to be more prominent into todays politics.
The Green party in New Zealand is strongly
opposed to the exploration of fossil fuels and
has reported the extreme risks that are related
to deep sea drilling. If a major oil spill were to
happen it could be a loss of over $20 billion
in terms of external costs towards the New
Zealand economy; and given recent events
and catastrophic oil spills such as the one in
the Gulf of Mexico, there is no guarantee to
prevent these risks. (Green Party 2011) Given
that the total value in terms of future royalties
from the potential extraction of oil is only to be
approximately $8 Billion (National Party, 2011)
and given the majority of the prots would
go to foreign oil companies, one must ask are
the risks worth the gains? The environmental
situation is not so diferent when compared to
Chinas example of deforestation; we can see
that the external costs and potential risk is
clearly more than the short -term benets. And
those that will pay the true costs will be the New
Zealand tax payer. Prior to this, New Zealand
was on the right track by concentrating on its
renewable resources but sadly is now slowly
shifting its focus to fossil fuels. Surprisingly,
this is at a time when the demand and interest
for renewable energy is increasing globally;
hence it would seem unwise to stray away from
the green agenda.
ECONOMIC CATALYST
The sustainable solution to the ever-
increasing energy needs and a potentially very
strong economic catalyst for Christchurchs
recovery could be one in the same. Solar
energy is an unharnessed potential in New
Zealand with less than 1% contribution to
the total energy sector. The estimated solar
exposure is 2,050 hours annually, which is
equivalent to 1360kWh per square metre, or
approximately $360 a year of energy at 27c
per kwh. (Energy Efciency and Conservation
Authority, 2001) A country such as Australia
and Germany are successfully leading the way
in the implementation of solar power and have
proven solar energy is a viable and promising
source. Australia has similar solar conditions
as New Zealand but has a solar adoption rate
of 50% (the rate of which solar technology is
being implemented in new infrastructure);
whilst New Zealand is merely 2%. (Moore, 2012)
Australia is planning to intensify its clean
energy industry by striving to become a zero-
carbon country by 2020; to do this they have
produced a ten-year plan with strategic energy
saving strategies implemented in stages. By
capitalising on this natural source of solar
energy, Christchurch could learn from other
global leaders and lead the way within the New
Zealand context. Hence, for part of my thesis
I will set out to establish a transitional energy
strategy to make Christchurch a zero carbon
city by 2035 by using solar energy as one of the
economic catalyst in the energy scheme.
New Zealand has an advantage over Australia
as it is smaller country, which means less
output for infrastructural projects. As well the
majority of New Zealands energy is already
from renewable sources, so if New Zealand
wanted to set the same aim to achieve a zero
carbon energy strategy, it could do so with less
time and investment.
Another country leading the green revolution
is China, New Zealands second largest
trading partner. New Zealand and specically
Christchurch could take advantage of its
good trading relationship with China and be
a part of Chinas 10 Trillion Yuan investment
plan to grow its clean technology industry
by supplying innovative ideas and products
to the Chinese market. If Christchurch
invested in the technology driving the green
energy industries, and lead by example it
could becoming a truly green energy city,
and potentially a source for producing and
distributing both the solutions and the
technology behind renewable energy sources.
Christchurch is at a cross roads, it can either
take the path of a Green Economy which
would be ecologically and economically
responsible, or continue down the road of
Business as Usual which neglects the long
term consequences of immediate returns.
If Christchurch continues the path of the
Business as Usual Scenario, nothing really
changes, and a select few gets will become
richer, mainly the people who have a share in
the non-renewable sector. Energy prices will
continue to increase as the supply for fossil
fuels will inevitably run out, at which time
New Zealand will be forced to import clean
tech from abroad, which by then will have
become the norm for energy production and
consumption leaving New Zealand to catch
up rather then lead the way. This would have
a negative consequence on New Zealands
image as a clean, green country as well it
would lend to the continued degradation of
the air quality through pollution which has
the related consequences of negative health
efects.
However, if Christchurch takes the steps
towards a Green Economy and focuses
5 Zhi Jian (David) Wong
on further investing in renewable energy
technologies, it could lead the way for New
Zealand in choosing a responsible and
economically sound future. If Christchurch
develops a renewable energy strategy, it could
become a prototype city for the rest of New
Zealand and the world, and instead of falling
behind, it could lead the way. My thesis aims
to outline a strategy for how this transition
to a green economy is not only possible, but
could be the catalyst for investment and future
growth. I believe the city could build on New
Zealands identity as a clean green country
to capture the attention of foreign investors
looking to invest in sustainable technologies.
The green economy is about the bare essentials
of everyday life, energy (food as a source of
energy for humans), being afordable for every
household in Christchurch and in New Zealand.
The green economy is also about maintaining
the priceless scenic natural environment of
New Zealand to create an environment for
innovative individuals who want to stay in
Christchurch; where professionals gather to
see how theories of sustainability are put into
practice to rejuvenate life and activity within
this fallen city. Being sustainable is not about
getting rich quickly but rather creating a high
quality of life that everyone enjoys.
THE FUTURE PLAN
To start the momentum for this transition
towards a green economy, a few catalyst
projects around Christchurch are needed
to activate certain areas and aspects of the
city; such as energy, transport and housing.
The energy aspect of Christchurch will be
re-evaluated and analyzed to nd potential
changes to make the existing energy scheme
more efcient in the long term by only relying
on renewable resources. The cost of the
existing oil economy will be put to the test
to see if it is really the cheaper option. The
economically feasible energy scheme will
aim to transition Christchurch into a Zero-
Carbon city by the year 2035. The result of the
plan will change the urban fabric of the city
because of the necessary infrastructure that
the proposal needs to be realized. Architecture
has the means of reecting and portraying
the underlying spirit of the city, in the case of
Christchurch; for a more sustainable resilient
future. The logical prospect for the future of
Christchurch architecture should be of an
optimized and efcient nature; because of the
scarce resources available to the city after the
earthquake. This will reect the philosophy
of, working together with nature rather than
against it and, the nature of Evolution. I
believe once people start to experience the
changes because of these catalyst projects; the
notion of a sustainable future for Christchurch
will spread like a bug, the Green bug.
6 Future Christchurch: A Green Economy | Introduction | Thesis Statement
Bibliography
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10 Future Christchurch: A Green Economy | Introduction | Contents
List of Figures
11 Zhi Jian (David) Wong
The best way to recover from a crisis is -
Prevention.
author.
12
1.1 A Green Economy
A Green Economy
A green economy is an economic development
model based on sustainable development.
Its most distinguishing feature from prior
economic regimes is direct valuation of
natural capital and ecological services as
having economic value.
WHAT IS SUSTAINABLE?
Sustainability is being able to maintain
a steady level of development without
exhausting natural resources or causing severe
ecological damage. Growth is acceptable if
it doesnt involve exploiting the natural or
human resource for the benet of economic
growth.
Conventional Approach:
Pick ONE only: Economy / Sustainability
A GREEN ECONOMY =
A SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY
The point above illustrates the misguided
public perception on sustainability and how
they view it as a sacrice to the economy if
they wanted to achieve sustainability. This is
far from the truth which is what my thesis will
be illustrating. The complete opposite is what
I am going to be achieving as in our time of
a great economic recession and energy crisis.
There is an opportunity for a more sustainable
and green economy to emerge as the practical
solution to help regenerate Christchurchs
economy after the devastating earthquakes.
Figures 2 and 3 illustrates the current
urban state of Christchurch. The need for
an economic catalyst is necessary to shift
Christchurch from a bearable state into a
more sustainable one. Which further proves
that an economic catalyst is necessary for
Christchurch not just from a capitalist point of
view but also from a sustainable one.
However even though growth of economic
sector needs to happen. The process for this
to happen should be carefully considered. As
what is necessary is a balance of development
and not just irresponsible expansion.
BALANCED GROWTH:
Sustainable growth is a self-evident oxymoron,
as growth describes by Cato below describes
this dilemma well. Hence, the key to
sustainable growth is balance. Only when
there is an equilibrium between the economic,
social and ecological systems can there be true
sustainable growth.
Figure 7:
Future Christchurch: A Green Economy | Research | Economics of Efficiency
17 Zhi Jian (David) Wong
Typology Stock Numbers
Total Inial Cost
$Million (negave
value)
GWh/yr Saved NPV $million BCR Average Prot p.a BCR * STOCK
Villas 20,099 422 162 679 2.61 22.6 52,438
20s Bungalows 18,013 364 140 575 2.58 19.2 46,468
Art Deco 12,428 238 91 375 2.58 12.5 32,010
Mass 40s-60s 91,337 1596 628 2557 2.60 85.2 237,671
Mul Units 1960-1979 18,172 230 88 298 2.30 9.9 41,717
House 1970-1978 28,892 568 226 977 2.72 32.6 78,588
House 1979-1989 30,211 419 151 699 2.67 23.3 80,611
House 1990-1996 20,578 275 105 462 2.68 15.4 55,149
Mul Units 1980-1996 11,969 126 41 128 2.02 4.3 24,128
House 1996 - 34,162 476 164 732 2.54 24.4 86,697
Mul Units 1996 - 5,412 60 18 59 1.98 2.0 10,734
Assumpons: 18 Degree Heang KEY: ABOVE AVERAGE
Period- 30 yrs
Discount rate = 5%
Energy takeback = 30%
Energy Price escalaon = 3%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Villas 20s Bungalows Art Deco Mass 40s-60s Mul Units 1960-
1979
House 1970-1978House 1979-1989House 1990-1996Mul Units 1980-
1996
House 1996 - Mul Units 1996 -
S
C
A
L
E
D
A
X
I
S
HOUSING TYPOLOGY
CHRISTCHURCH HOUSING TYPOLOGY BENEFIT-COST RATIO
Stock Numbers (#/500) Total Inial Cost $Million (-#/10) GWh/yr Saved (#/10) NPV $million (#/10) BCR (#*10) Average Prot p.a BCR * STOCK (#/1000)
Figure 8:
Figure 9:
18
Figure 10:
TYPE OF RETROFIT
Typology
R4 CEILING (NO
INSULATION)
ADD 2.8 (R1.5
EXISTING)
WALL R2.8
REPLACE
CLADDING
WALL R2.8
REPLACE LININGS
TIMBER FLOOR,
R2 INSUALTION
DRAUGHT
PROOFING
NEW DOUBLE
GLAZING
SECONDARY
GLAZING
CURTAINS WOOD BURNER HEAT PUMP HEAT TRANSFER
Villas 7.20 2.10 0.50 1.30 3.40 5.40 1.10 1.20 1.30 5.10 5.30 3.20
20s Bungalows 7.20 2.10 0.50 1.30 3.40 5.00 1.10 1.20 1.20 5.00 5.20 3.10
Art Deco 6.80 2.00 0.50 1.40 3.30 4.60 1.10 1.20 1.10 4.80 5.00 2.90
Mass 40s-60s 6.80 2.00 0.60 1.60 3.30 4.20 1.10 1.20 1.00 4.70 4.80 2.90
Mul Units 1960-1979 6.80 2.00 0.90 2.40 3.30 3.20 1.00 1.00 1.10 3.40 3.30 2.30
House 1970-1978 6.80 2.00 0.60 1.60 3.30 NA 1.10 1.20 1.20 5.00 5.30 3.00
House 1979-1989 1.30 2.00 NA NA 1.40 NA 1.20 1.50 1.30 5.00 5.30 2.00
House 1990-1996 1.30 2.00 NA NA 1.40 NA 1.20 1.50 1.30 4.80 5.30 2.10
Mul Units 1980-1996 1.30 2.00 NA NA 1.00 NA 1.00 1.00 1.40 3.20 3.40 1.50
House 1996 - NA NA NA NA 1.50 NA 1.20 1.50 1.50 4.40 5.10 1.40
Mul Units 1996 - NA NA NA NA 1.10 NA 1.00 1.00 1.70 3.20 3.50 1.10
BCR KEY
0-2
2-4
>4
GERMAN POLICY
In 1999, a serious energy efcient initiative
was started by the German government
and in the process stimulated growth in
the insulation and energy efcient sector.
Between 2001 and 2006, a public investment
of 3.8 billion stimulated a further 15.2 billion
in investments and retrotted 342,000 homes.
This initiative created 25,000 jobs and saved
116,000 jobs in the declining construction
sector. Furthermore this created a catalyst
for demand in the energy efcient sector;
which led to growths in other energy efcient
technologies such as photo-voltaic panels and
efcient ventilation systems. This is just one
example from a green economy principle and
has proven to yield such impressive results.
In 2010, according to Environment Minister
Sigmar Gabriel, the green jobs sector employs
about 1.8 million, which is a 50 percent increase
in just three years.
(Fitzgerald, 2010) 82.
Future Christchurch: A Green Economy | Research | Economics of Efficiency
19 Zhi Jian (David) Wong
1.4 Economics of Equality
Economics of Equality
The economics of Equality is an overview on
the current and future government policies
that afects the social aspect of a sustainable
economy.
NEW ZEALAND CURRENT
SUSTAINABLE STATE
Currently, New Zealand is doing relatively
well in terms of being a sustainable and green
country compared to other countries globally.
In late 2011, the Green Economy Index was
published analyzing the performance and
perception of 27 countries and scored New
Zealand rst in overall performance. (Building
a Bluegreen Future, 2012)
Under the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS),
there has been no new fossil fuel power plants
and has been a ve-fold increase in renewable
technology. The government intends to
maintain the $25/ton xed price option until at
least 2015. From 2008; there has been a dramatic
change in which the ETS provides incentives
to plant trees and to stop deforesting. Water
is abundant in New Zealand compared to the
rest of the world; which has resulted in poor
management and being too carefree about
this valuable resource. (Building a Bluegreen
Future, 2012)
FUTURE ENERGY PLAN FOR NEW
ZEALAND
However there is no time for celebration not
just yet; as this ranking maybe about to change
very soon. This can be seen in the current
economic development action plan that
describes the focus and steps the government
will take to build New Zealands economy.
What is worrying is that there is absolutely
nothing on renewable energy or incentives to
grow the clean energy sector. Furthermore,
the government intends to invest $12 billion
more on roads. However, what is the most
disturbing is that in the energy sector of the
plan, the government only focus is to build
up and promote the oil and gas sector. The
next steps in the governments plan is not to
encourage renewable energy but promote the
non-renewable sector. (National Party, 2011)
WHY?
According to the governments (National)
report, Our petroleum estate is under-
explored. An independent valuation has put a
value of $8 billion to $12 billion on potential
future royalties from oil and gas production.
However there has been no real costs published
about the true value of such operations and
who benets.
Key Points on why this does not make
economic sense: (Clendon, 2011)
OMV ~nc Snc ~nncunccc tcc~y tn~t tnc
exploration rig to survey the Great South Basin
is going to arrive fully stafed, so will ofer no
New Zealand jobs.
T~r~n~kiscntircg~s~ncciincustrycirccty
employs fewer than 800 people.
Snc Oi just spicc ncrc tn~n tcnncs
of oil into the North Sea, while OMV had a
spill of the Kapiti Coast last year. There is no
guarantee of safety in ofshore drilling.
Il~n~jcrcispiw~stcn~ppcnitccuc|c
a loss of over $20 billion in terms of external
costs towards the New Zealand economy; and
as stated before there is no guarantee that this
will not happen. (Green Party, 2011)
OIL SPILLS
Petrobras and Anadarko are two companies
who have been granted permits to explore for
oil in deep New Zealand waters. Petrobras
has a history of accidents with 27 oil rig
blowouts since 1980 and 282 deaths from
accidents, explosions and res in the last 15
years. Furthermore, the American company
Anadarko had a 25% stake in the Deepwater
Horizon well. The deepwater horizon oil spill
or the Gulf of Mexico oil spill in 2010 had a
total costs of $40 billion. (Graeme Wearden
2010) This disaster could happen in New
Zealand waters and through the Rena disaster
we saw that New Zealand is unable to cope
with small oil spill in shallow water; let alone a
deep water oil spill.
ALTERNATIVE TO THE OIL ECONOMY
The Green Party has proposed and planned
out an alternative to the oil economy, a green
economy plan, 100,000 green jobs for New
Zealanders,
Three main points on how they are planning
to achieve this: (100,000 green jobs for New
Zealanders, 2011)
20
1. Directly investing into extending home
insulations to a further 200,000 homes. This
would result in an annual energy saving of
$144 per household.
2. Using New Zealand energy companies to
drive exports. The global market for renewable
energy technology is forecast to reach an
annual value of $590$800 billion by 2015. If
we can secure just 1% of this market, we can
build a new $68 billion export industry here at
home, creating 47,00065,000 new clean-tech,
high-value jobs (59,00081,000 new jobs if you
include indirect and upstream employment
efects).
3. To help grow the clean technology sector,
support for greening of Small Medium
Enterprises (SME) will help drive growth in
the private sector via tax incentives and start-
up funds.
The Green Party also has calculated how it
intends to pay for its costs and have created an
approximate scal implication on its plan; to
show the economic viability of their plan. See
Figure 11 for more details. (100,000 green jobs
for New Zealanders, 2011)
In summary, the amount of efort and
investment needed to encourage this risky
operation of oil exploration would be better
spend into providing green jobs for the
people of New Zealand. Unfortunately the
government in power at the moment is
National; but the Green party has slowly been
climbing in popularity and is the third most
inuential party at present.
Fiscal implications
This is a summary of the scal implications of our priorities for 2011/122013/14.
Increased tax revenues
from raising the
minimum wage $519m
Raising a levy on the
commercial use of water
$370-570m per year $1110m
Comprehensive tax on
capital gains (excluding
the family home),
up to $4500m per year $1000m
A temporary levy
on income to fund
the rebuilding of
Christchurch
$1000m per year for ve
years $3000m
Reprioritised
government spending on
new motorways
$3500m saved over the next
ten years $1050m
Phase out on-going ETS
subsidies $1200m
Additional mining
royalties & concessions
$50m per year $150m
Bringing 100,000 kids
out of poverty by 2014 priceless
TOTAL
REVENUES
$8.029
billion
Extending the In-Work
Tax Credit
$300m per year $900m
Reinstating and
extending the Training
Incentive Allowance
$40m per year $120m
Temporary transitional
fund to help small
businesses adjust to a
minimum wage increase
$20m per year $60m
Clean Rivers initiatives
$138m per year $414m
Extending Heat Smart to
200,000 more homes $350m
Build an additional 2000
new social housing units $670m
Conservation initiatives,
additional to Clean Rivers
initiatives $432m
Forestry initiatives
$12m per year $36m
Boost R&D funding to
$500m in 2014 $1000m
New start-up fund for
clean technology SMEs $100m
TOTAL
COSTS
$4.082
billion
Revenues Costs
Ending Child Poverty Priority Ending Child Poverty Priority
Clean Rivers Priority
Clean Rivers Priority
Green Jobs Priority
Green Jobs Priority
Figure 11:
Future Christchurch: A Green Economy | Research | Economics of Efficiency
21 Zhi Jian (David) Wong
1.5 Economics of Ecology
Economics of Ecology
The economics of ecology is a study on
revealing the otherwise invisible economic
value of nature. The invisible economy is
vital for current urban development as at
present we have this mentality that just
because something is free; it does not have
value. Hence it is crucial to quantify and put
a value on eco-systems; as at the moment in
todays market rate, they are valued at $ ZERO;
because these natural resources are given to
use for free. The Economics of Ecosystems
and Biodiversity is thinking of the entire life
cycle of a development and end-user products
to ensure the decisions we make are based on
the true values of the resulting consequence.
(TEEB The Economics of Ecosystems and
Biodiversity for National and International
Policy Makers, 2009)
PLACING VALUE IN NATURE,
AND THE NATURE OF VALUE
Valuing the Invisible Economy:
Ccnscringlcrcsts~cicsgrccnncusc
gas emissions worth US$3.7 trillion
Gc|~ sncrics unccrpcrlcrn |y
US$50 billion annually due to over shing
Bcc kccping gcncr~tcs US
million annually in Switzerland
(TEEB The Economics of Ecosystems and
Biodiversity, 2011)
THE TRUE VALUE OF UNSUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT
By applying the T.E.E.B. principle the true
value of a timber industry in China can be
shown and be weighed in an economic term
between its pros and cons. From Figure 12,
we can see that the Market Price of Timber
(prots) is half of what the external costs is to
the country. These external costs range from
ooding damage in 1998 to desertication.
(TEEB The Economics of Ecosystems and
Biodiversity, 2011)
Another example of this is in Thailand
where an economic comparison to convert a
mangrove forest into a shrimp farm is used to
show the true value of not valuing the invisible
ecological economy and the reason why this
is still happening. In Figure 13, we can see
that the initial prots from the prawn farm
would be a clear decision but when you take
away subsidies and include restoration costs;
the entire scenario is changed. The result
of the prawn farm would result in a negative
value whilst the mangrove forest is actually
producing that same loss value as a prot for
the community.
This explains why policy makers approve such
decisions to go forward as the initial conversion
decision is clearly an easy one for those making
the private gain but the conclusion changes if
the resulting costs and benets to society are
also included in the picture.
THE ECOLOGICAL VALUE IN NEW ZEALAND
Valuing the Invisible Economy in New Zealand:
Figure 12:
22
THE ECOLOGICAL VALUE IN
CHRISTCHURCH
CHRISTCHURCH AIR QUALITY
Eighty percent of Christchurchs winter air
pollution comes from wood or coal burners
and open res. Only 10 percent comes from
vehicles and 10 percent from industry.
The older and less efcient a re is, the
greater the quantity of emitted dangerous ne
particulate emissions (known as PM10). On
cold, still winter nights, these particles can
form into choking, brown smog.
For up to 50 days each winter, the level of PM10
particles in the air in Christchurch exceeds
Ministry for the Environment guidelines.
Research indicates each year this pollution is
responsible for:
scricusnc~tnprc|cnslcrsccr~tncus~nc
people, such as respiratory and cardiac illness
(causing them to take time of work, which
afects the local economy)
tncprcn~turccc~tnsclncrctn~npccpc
due to respiratory or cardiac illness
nigncr nc~tn ccsts lcr ccrycnc cuc tc
heavier demand on the health system
~ c~n~ging ccct cn tnc pu|ic in~gc cl
Christchurch.
(Science Learning Hub, 2008)
The economic health costs can be estimated
to be costing Christchurch $168 Million per
annum. In addition, premature deaths because
of air pollution are 158 lives lost a year.
(Spronken-Smith, 2002)
Figure 13:
Figure 19:
30
1.8 Bibliography
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_
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Figure 29:
Future Christchurch: A Green Economy | Urban | Initial Energy Composition
35 Zhi Jian (David) Wong
2.1 Solar Energy
SOLAR ENERGY
As described previously from the economic
research about the potentials in Solar energy
in Christchurch; Solar energy harnesses the
energy from sun; and turns it into heat or
electricity. Solar Photo-Voltaic panels uses the
sunlight and not heat to generate electricity
which can then be converted to AC electricity
in the form of an inverter. This can either
power appliances in the homes or fed back to
the Power Grid.
Figure 30:
__
Original Data Source: (Solar Zone, 2012)
FROM THIS INITIAL DATA WE CAN CALCULATE POSSIBLE SOLAR ENERGY POTENTIALS FOR CHRISTCHURCH.
GENERAL NZ COST OF SOLAR ENERGY
1kWp Solar Module = 1kW peak energy output
Cost $4000
Area needed 6.7 sqm
Energy Generated 1,300 kWh p.a.
Life Span 25 years guaranteed
Total energy generated in life span 32,500 kWh
36
2.1 Solar Energy
COST OF SOLAR ENERGY
Figure 31: Figure 32:
140,196 Residential Dwellings in Christchurch; with an average of 150 sqm per dwelling = total roof area = 21,029,400 sqm
Commercial spaces in Christchurch = 3,800,000 sqm
SPATIAL RELATIONSHIP TO CHRISTCHURCH CITY
100% of energy needs
Amount of 1kWp Modules
3,846,154
3.8 Million
Energy Needed
18,000 TJ p.a.
5,000,000,000 kWh p.a.
Cost
$15,384,615,000
$15 Billion
Area needed (sqm)
25,769,231
26 Million
Life Span 25 years guaranteed
Total energy generated in life span 450,000 TJ
True Cost $600 Million p.a.
Future Christchurch: A Green Economy | Urban | Solar Energy
37 Zhi Jian (David) Wong
For the reason that spending over $15 Billion is simply not realistic and impractical;
diferent scenarios as below are analyzed; to see the energy implications of each.
all homes that were severely damaged with solar PV:
30,000 homes severely damaged
Amount of 1kWp Modules 671,640
Energy Produced
3143 TJ p.a.
873,132,000 kWh p.a.
Percentage of Total Energy needed 17.5% of 18,000 TJ p.a.
Cost
$ 2,686,560,000
$2.7 Billion
Area used (sqm)
4,500,000
4.5 Million
Life Span 25 years guaranteed
Total energy generated in life span 78,575 TJ
True Cost $107.5 Million p.a.
8,000 larger
buildings to be demolished or uneconomical to repair. (200 sqm)
Amount of 1kWp Modules 238,805
Energy Produced
1118 TJ p.a.
310,446,500 kWh p.a.
Percentage of Total Energy needed 6.2% of 18,000 TJ p.a.
Cost
$955,223,880
$955 Million
Area used (sqm)
1,600,000
1.6 Million
Life Span 25 years guaranteed
Total energy generated in life span 27,950 TJ
True Cost $38.2 Million p.a.
38
2.1 Solar Energy
SPATIAL RELATIONSHIP TO CHRISTCHURCH CITY
Figure 33:
Figure 34:
Summary of both Scenarios
Energy Produced 4,261 TJ p.a.
Percentage of Total Energy needed 23.7% of 18,000 TJ p.a.
Cost $3.64 billion
Area used (sqm) 6.1 Million
Total energy generated in life span 106,525 TJ
True Cost $145.7Million p.a.
FINAL FISCAL SUMMARY
Future Christchurch: A Green Economy | Urban | Solar Energy
39 Zhi Jian (David) Wong
Summary of both Scenarios at the global price (25% price reduction)
Energy Produced 4,261 TJ p.a.
Percentage of Total Energy needed 23.7% of 18,000 TJ p.a.
Cost $910 Million
Area used (sqm) 6.1 Million
Total energy generated in life span 106,525 TJ
True Cost $36.4 Million p.a.
GLOBAL COST OF PRICE
Today globally solar prices can be sold at $1 a
Watt and the trend is that prices will continue
to drop. Source: http://www.ecobusinesslinks.
com/solar_panels.htm
New Zealand is selling at $4 a Watt/ $4000 for
a kW
If we are able to produce PV panels at the same
efciency of oversea companies which would
be $1000 per 1kW; this would lead to a 25%
reduction of the cost.
The price for this even has the potential to drop
further if production was localized and with
new technology breakthroughs. The expected
life span for most solar panels at todays
technology is approximately for 40 years; with
most companies providing a guarantee of 25
years.
40
2.1 Solar Energy
LIFE CYCLE OF SOLAR PANELS
DOUBLE GREEN OPPORTUNITY
The concept of Double-Green is by using
a renewable source to produce the solar
panels as an energy investment in the future.
The simple rationale that it takes energy to
produce solar panels, and if a non-renewable
source of energy is used to produce these
green products; this would make increase the
embodied energy of the product. This can
compared ne to overseas; such as China and
USA as their majority of energy is from using
fossil fuel productions to create their solar
panels.
Christchurch, New Zealand can use its large
hydro sources as its primary generation source
of solar panels and take the opportunity of this
double green marketing to further promote
its clean green brand overseas for export
opportunities of its double green solar panels;
against its dirtier competitors globally.
Figure 36:
Future Christchurch: A Green Economy | Urban | Wind Energy
43 Zhi Jian (David) Wong
Figure 37:
1. Wood scraps, sawdust and crop waste are collected from farms or manufacturing plants
2. The waste is burned to heat water and create steam
3. Steam is sent to a turbine, which spins to power a generator
4. Generator creates electricity and is transmitted to the grid
Approximate Bio-Mass Cost
Total Electricity Option Cost $33,333 ($0.12/ kWh)
Power Energy Generated 1 TJ
Total Heating Option Cost $5,556 ($0.02/ kWh)
Heat Energy Generated 1 TJ
Amount of Wood Waste needed for 1TJ 143 tonnes
Cost of Wood Waste for 143 tonnes $8570 ($60/ton)
Figure 45:
BIOMASS SUPPLIES
From the diagram above of aforestation
developments we can see that the main forest
industry in New Zealand is in the North Island.
Interestingly enough the region of Canterbury
has the least amount of forestry activities
due to the dominant agriculture sector of
grain crops and dairy farming. This is an
early warning sign that Biomass has a limited
potential in terms of energy generated
due to the limitations of plantations close
to Christchurch. As excessive usage may
lead to unsustainable developments due to
deforestation.
BIO-GAS
The greenhouse gas, Methane, is produced by
bacteria dissolving organic waste either from
livestock or from human rubbish; this can then
be captured, ltered, processed and burned to
produce electricity or use as fuel for heating.
(Green Mountain Energy n.d.)
1. Animal/Landll/ Human waste is collected in a large tank or pond with bacteria
2. As bacteria decomposes the waste, methane is released
3. Methane is then burned to heat water and generate steam
4. Steam turns a generator turbine to create electricity, which is sent to transmission lines
Figure 47:
Figure 48:
Figure 49:
Figure 51:
Figure 52:
Figure 57:
Figure 60:
Capital Cost $2.164 Billion
120,200
Type of Housing
f Mass Construction types during the 1940-1960s
f Houses built in the 1970-1978.
Energy saved 3074 TJ p.a.
True cost p.a.
$108.2 Million p.a. over 20 years. (with a BCR of
approximately 2.6; over 30 years)
Water Saved 7 million liters cumulative total over 30 years.
FINAL SUMMARY
ADVANTAGES:
Tnc ccst cl rctrctting wcuc |c rccuccc
due to the fact that a major rebuild is currently
underway in Christchurch. Most of the
buildings that was damaged are in need of
retrotting anyways; and would be logical to
take this opportunity of rebuilding the walls,
to add in the insulation at the same time.
Encrgy s~ings wcuc cccur cuc ~ ~rgc
amount of energy consumed is for space
heating purposes; and when heat is able to be
DISADVANTAGES:
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may have a large impact on the surrounding
water eco-system if not thought through
carefully.
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due to signicant cost; which leads to longer
start-up times.
Ncw Zc~~nc n~s ~rc~cy |uit ~ cry
signicant amount of hydro power schemes;
remaining resources would not be as cost-
efective or efcient. The existing sites might
compromise existing eco-systems.
Linitccstcr~gccllucw~tcr~ncrci~ncc
on water levels.
CONCLUSION:
Hydro energy is the foundation of the energy
plan and can supply the majority of the base
load of energy. Hydro energy even though
being the most cost-efcient source of energy
over the long run; is however simply too
expensive for it to be part of a transition plan.
However the existing hydro energy will be
utilized more efectively so that it only supplies
energy for the base load and the supply is kept
at a comfortable amount for windless nights;
due to the peak loads being met by the Wind
and Solar sources. This is done so that the
supply from Hydro energy is not strained due
to high loads during the cold winters and low
rainfall.
Summary of Energy Savings from
Capital Cost $2.17 Billion
Energy saved 5,070 TJ p.a.
True cost p.a. $110 Million p.a. over 20 years
2.6 Energy Efciency
61 Zhi Jian (David) Wong
2.7 Localized Production
Local Farming Initiative
Land owner lea
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e
s
b
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LAND OWNER GETS FRESH
PRODUCE IN RETURN, AND FREE
GARDEN MAINTENANCE
RESIDENTIAL
RAINWATER HARVEST
FOR IRRIGATION
AN ORGANIZATION WILL
BE CREATED FOR THE
GARDEN FARMERS
LOCAL MARKET WILL DISTRIBUTE
FRESH PRODUCE SUSTAINABLY TO
CITY DWELLERS
Figure 61:
LOCALIZED PRODUCTION
Another aspect of the home which could utilized
to be more efcient is the backyard. The typical
suburban lawn is valuable piece of arable land in
which Christchurch is blessed in abundance with.
The rationale behind importing globally for food
when fresher healthier produce can be grown right
outside your house just makes sense. The idea of
people not wanting to get dirty can just employ
a local farmer from the Local Farming Initiative as
explained below. This cuts down transportation
and energy used to grow large industrial crops.
The diagram below illustrates the local farming
initiative in which the backyard is used as arable
land for growing local crops. This reinforces the
community and brings the people back to nature
which is critical for a transition towards a green
economy.
Figure 62:
TRANSPORTATION
Figure 66:
66 Future Christchurch: A Green Economy | Urban | Final Summary
2.9 Final Summary
THE GREEN ENERGY PLAN:
SOLAR ENERGY
Supplies the peak energy loads during the day
and to charge the batteries from the Electric
Vehicles. The Solar Panels, Electric Vehicle
and the houses becomes an autonomous unit;
if needed in times of need.
WIND ENERGY
Supplies intermittence base energy demands.
BIOMASS ENERGY
Supplies peak heating energy demands during
the winter to the CBD and main hubs to reduce
the pressure during the Winter.
HYDRO ENERGY
Supplies back-up base load energy when
the wind and solar energy resources are
not meeting the demand. Storage from the
hydro dams should not be strained due to the
majority of the energy demands during the day
is met by the other renewable sources.
0.00
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p
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Figure 67:
67 Zhi Jian (David) Wong
LOCALIZED PRODUCTION
Helps to promote the sense of a local energy
efcient culture which helps to bring the
community back to nature and is crucial to the
transition in a more sustainable future.
ENERGY EFFICIENCY
Allows the community to experience rsthand
the diference between an energy efcient
culture compared to their previous lifestyles.
For the reason that homes will be warmer
during the winter; and also not needing to heat
up their homes inefciently; which reduces
health problems.
TRANSPORTATION SHIFT
Initial phase is to change the behavior of using
cars in the city; via a car sharing application
(KiwiGo). In conjunction to this, a transition
of using electric vehicles (EV) will be done
by providing incentives and the necessary
infrastructure (battery swap centers ) that will
be needed for this to happen. Collaboration
with the Better Place organization that is
leading this global transition to EV would be
benecial. By having an EV network within
the city; Christchurch would always have a
signicant amount energy of stored in the
form of the batteries of the EV.
5,070
2500
100
4260
4500
2000
Breakdown of Energy Plan (TJ/p.a)
Energy Eficiency
Transportation Shift
Localized Production
Solar Power
Wind Power
Bio Mass
62%
38%
Non-Renewable Total
Renewable Total
Non-Renewable Total
18,118 Tera-Joules (TJ)
Figure 68:
68 Future Christchurch: A Green Economy | Urban | Final Summary
2.9 Final Summary
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
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TOTAL COST = $452 MILLION P.A. TOTAL COST = $334 MILLION P.A.
Figure 69:
69 Zhi Jian (David) Wong
10325
3033
4260
4500
Hydro
Bio-Mass
Solar Power
Wind Power
10325
8038
7244
2727
1033
2012 Energy Composition
Electricity
Petrol
Diesel
Other fossil fuels
Biofuels
2035 Green Energy Composition
TJ / pa TJ / pa
Figure 70:
70 Future Christchurch: A Green Economy | Urban | Final Summary
2.9 Final Summary
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3
0.00
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
700.00
800.00
900.00
1000.00
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040
$
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i
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p
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.
Timeline
Comparison between Oil Economy and Green Economy Plan
Figure 71:
The above is the energy costs for Christchurch
comparing the Business-as-Usual (B.A.U.)
Oil dependent plan and the zero carbon Green
Economy plan. We can see that the very slight
increase in short term costs would clearly pay
for itself in the long term. The reason being
that Oil costs will inevitably rise and the
demand for energy will as well. The costs of
utilizing green technologies would not, due
to the low running costs of the renewable
technologies. The reason for the short-term
costs being slightly higher is because green
technologies have a more expensive initial
capital costs; but is more efcient in the long
term than fossil fuels due to minimal running
and fuel costs.
71 Zhi Jian (David) Wong
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
$
M
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Timeline
Transition from Oil sources to Renewables sources
0
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40
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P
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Timeline
Adoption Percentage of the Green Economy Plan
Figure 72: Figure 73:
This is a breakdown on how the transition from
the oil economy to the Green economy might
happen. The plan will happen in three phases
PHASE 1 (INTRODUCTION):
The rst phase is to introduce the concept of
the green economy and to develop catalyst
initiatives; to get momentum going for full
adoption of the plan. In this phase, incentives
for early adopters of the plan will be crucial as
a critical mass of support will be needed to be
achieved for the success of Phase 2.
Green technology is strongly encouraged
to take a develop a change from the Oil
dependent culture. The plan is only 20% in
completion.
Time Period: 2012 - 2020
PHASE 2 (PLOT):
In Phase 2 the plan is steadily increasing
each year to ensure the target of zero-carbon
is achievable by 2035; despite rising energy
demands. A cumulative increase of 25
million pa will be needed to meet this goal.
In this phase, the whole energy structure is
undergoing a severe reconstruction from the
oil economy to the economy. Petrol stations
are being converted to Electric Vehicle battery
swap stations. Solar Panels are a common
component within the housing stocks and a
large green economic boom is happening due
to the large demand for the supply of green
technologies
Time Period: 2020 - 2030
PHASE 3 (CONCLUSION):
In the conclusion phase, Christchurch does not
need oil anymore and is reaping the rewards of
being a self sustainable city. The energy cost
for Christchurch is steadily going down due
to the necessary infrastructure already put in
place and the low running costs of the solar
panels, wind turbines and hydro dams.
Despite the global energy crisis happening
worldwide; Christchurch is unafected and is
well equipped if a crisis was to happen again.
Christchurch can now truly call itself the
Green Garden City.
Time Period: 2030 - 2035+
72 Future Christchurch: A Green Economy | Urban | Final Summary
2.9 Final Summary
GOVERNMENT / COUNCIL
Feed-In Tarrifs (FIT)
Retailers Transmission Energy Generation
Wind Energy
Hydro Energy
Other Clean Energy
Solar Panels
CHRISTCHURCH PUBLIC
Micro-Generation (Wind)
(+) Demand
(+) Supply
Corporate
Electric Vehicles (Private)
Electric Vehicles (Public)
Battery Storage (Back-Up)
Business opportunities / Green Jobs / Future Investments
Economic Growth
Interest in Clean Technology sector
More funding for Research and Development
More Innovation
Tax Incentives
Relationship of Economic Forces
Other Consumers
Figure 74:
73 Zhi Jian (David) Wong
2.10 Bibliography
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