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    System Thinking

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    Guru Vaga
    This document provides an introduction to systems thinking, including: 1. It defines systems thinking as allowing people to make social systems explicit and improve them using engineering principles, in order to examine problems, see the big picture, and understand how structure influences performance. 2. It discusses the key differences between traditional analysis, which focuses on separating parts, and systems thinking, which focuses on interactions between constituents of a system. 3. It provides examples of areas where systems thinking has proven valuable, such as complex problems, recurring problems, and issues affected by their environment.

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    System Thinking

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    Guru Vaga
    560 views44 pages
    This document provides an introduction to systems thinking, including: 1. It defines systems thinking as allowing people to make social systems explicit and improve them using engineering principles, in order to examine problems, see the big picture, and understand how structure influences performance. 2. It discusses the key differences between traditional analysis, which focuses on separating parts, and systems thinking, which focuses on interactions between constituents of a system. 3. It provides examples of areas where systems thinking has proven valuable, such as complex problems, recurring problems, and issues affected by their environment.

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    This document provides an introduction to systems thinking, including: 1. It defines systems thinking as allowing people to make social systems explicit and improve them using engineering principles, in order to examine problems, see the big picture, and understand how structure influences performance. 2. It discusses the key differences between traditional analysis, which focuses on separating parts, and systems thinking, which focuses on interactions between constituents of a system. 3. It provides examples of areas where systems thinking has proven valuable, such as complex problems, recurring problems, and issues affected by their environment.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as ppt, pdf, or txt
    560 views44 pages

    System Thinking

    Uploaded by

    Guru Vaga
    This document provides an introduction to systems thinking, including: 1. It defines systems thinking as allowing people to make social systems explicit and improve them using engineering principles, in order to examine problems, see the big picture, and understand how structure influences performance. 2. It discusses the key differences between traditional analysis, which focuses on separating parts, and systems thinking, which focuses on interactions between constituents of a system. 3. It provides examples of areas where systems thinking has proven valuable, such as complex problems, recurring problems, and issues affected by their environment.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
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    of 44

    to Systems Thinking

    Introduction

    ABOUT THE SPEAKER


    Zaipul Anwar Bin Zainudin
    Lecturer in Institute of Product Design & Manufacturing, (IPROM) Universiti Kuala Lumpur Tel: 03-27154715, 019-3262427

    Email: zaipul@gmail.com
    Website: http://www.zaipul.com Blog: http://zaipul.com/category/blogs

    Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/zaipul
    You may download softcopies of all my materials in this session from this link: http://www.zaipul.com/download/tech-innovation-mgt/ - To verify the URL, go to Download link at my website Zaipul.com

    The significant problems we face today cannot be solved at the same level of thinking at which they were created.
    Albert Einstein

    WHAT IS SYSTEMS THINKING?


    Founded in 1956 by MIT professor, Jay Forrester. System thinking allows people to make their understanding of social system explicit and improve them in the same way that people use engineering principles to improve their understanding of mechanical system.

    It is use to: Examining how we create our own problems Seeing the big picture Structure influences performance

    SYSTEM THINKING APPROACH


    Traditional analysis
    Traditional analysis focuses on the separating the individual pieces of what is being studied; in fact, the word analysis actually comes from the root meaning to break into constituent parts.

    Systems thinking
    Systems thinking, in contrast, focuses on how the thing being studied interacts with the other constituents of the systema set of elements that interact to produce behaviorof which it is a part.

    Examples of area System Thinking has proven its value include:


    Complex problems that involve helping many actors see the big picture and not just their part of it Recurring problems or those that have been made worse by past attempts to fix them Issues where an action affects (or is affected by) the environment surrounding the issue, either the natural environment or the competitive environment Problems whose solutions are not obvious

    Learning to see the world systemically Encourages us to see the whole as well as the parts.
    WHOLE PARTS Holistic Thinking

    Systems Thinking

    !!!

    ??
    Multiple (often) restricted views

    ??

    Systems Thinking
    Helps us explore interdependencies and looking for patterns.

    Max Barret

    Webecoist.com

    Systems Thinking
    Helps us understand feedback structures that change systems over time.

    River Fractal - Hctor Garrido

    Systems Thinking
    Helps us understand results of our decisions

    http://www.systems-thinking.org/theWay/theWay.htm

    SYSTEMS THINKING TOOLS Causal Loop Diagrams


    A useful way to represent dynamic interrelationships Provide a visual representation with which to
    communicate that understanding

    Make explicit one's understanding of a system


    structure - Capture the mental model

    Components of Causal Loop Diagrams


    Variables - an element in a situation which may act or be acted upon Vary up or down over time (not an event) Nouns or noun phrases (not action words) Links / Arrows - show the relationship and the direction of influence between variables S's and O's - show the way one variable moves or changes in relation to another S or + stands for "same direction O or - stands for "opposite direction or B - Balancing feedback loop that seeks equilibrium or R - Reinforcing feedback loop that amplifies change

    Types of Causal Loop Diagrams Reinforcing Loop


    Structure
    Employee Performance
    S S

    Behavior Over Time


    Supportive Behavior

    Perf. Level

    Supervisors Supportive Behavior

    Unsupportive Behavior Time

    Types of Causal Loop Diagrams


    Balancing Loop
    Structure
    Desired Inventory
    S

    Behavior Over Time

    Discrepancy
    O
    100 ++

    Actual Inventory

    Actual Inventory
    S

    Desired Inventory

    Inventory Adjustment

    100 100 - -

    Time

    SYSTEMS THINKING ARCHETYPES


    A class of tools that capture the "common stories in systems thinking
    Powerful tools for diagnosing problems and identifying high leverage interventions that creates fundamental change

    List of System Thinking Archetype


    1. Fixes that Fail / Backfire
    2. Limits to Growth/Success 3. Shifting the Burden / Addiction 4. Tragedy of the Commons 5. Drifting Goals

    1. Fixes that Fail


    S
    Problem Symptom

    Behavior Over Time


    Fix

    O
    S

    Delay

    S
    Unintended Consequences

    Time

    1. Fixes that Fail


    Example: An example would be fixing problem of a squeaky wheel. Imagine someone who knows nothing about mechanics, mistakenly grab a can of water and splash it on the wheel. With great relief the squeaking stop for a while, it will return more loudly as the water join forces to rust the joint.

    1. Fixes that Fail


    Prescriptive actions: Increase awareness of the unintended consequences Cut back on the frequency with which you apply the fix Try to minimize the undesirable consequences Reframe and address the root problem, give up the fix that works only on the symtom Breaking fixes that fail merely alleviating a symptom, not really solving the problem. A two pronged attack of applying fix and finding fundamental solution will help to break the problem.

    2. Limits to Growth
    Structure
    S

    Behavior Over Time


    Burnout

    Target
    S O

    Growing Action

    Perf. Level
    Diminishing Returns

    Corrective Action
    S

    Actual Performance

    Positive Reinforcement

    Time

    2. Limits to Growth

    2. Limits to Growth
    Example: At the beginning of a quality improvement campaign, significant gains in quality and productivity were achieved. Once this achieved, the level of improvements plateaus.

    The next wave of improvements are more complex and tougher to manage. Later the lack of organization-wide support leads to limited/diminishing quality and productivity of the whole organization (it becomes stagnant or diminish).

    2. Limits to Growth
    Prescriptive actions: Beware of doing more of what worked in the past. If your growth has stalled, look at both reinforcing and balancing loops to try to find interrelationships between your success strategies and potential limits. Look for other potential engines of growth. The real leverage in limits to growth scenario lies in its early phases. The choice between plateauing or peaking often depends on length of balancing loop delay and our response to it.

    3. Shifting the Burden


    Quick fixes + _ _ Problem/symptom _ _ + Source of problem /Root cause _
    Time

    Behavior Over Time + Side effects


    Efforts Quick fix

    Problem symptom

    Capacity of system to fix itself

    3. Shifting the Burden


    Apply Patches + Behavior Over Time + Feeling of Okay
    Apply patches

    _ _ Damage of Road
    _

    Damage of road

    +
    _ + Proper Road Contruction

    Proper road construction

    Time

    3. Shifting the Burden


    Example: Problem of pot holes on the road. The problem is handled by applying patches with immediate effect, thereby solving the problem for a while. The primary source of the problem is overlooked, that is the overall quality of the road construction. The origin of the problem should be identified and solved in the long-term run or else the quality of the road will be further diminished.

    3. Shifting the Burden


    Prescriptive actions: Strengthen the long-term solution. If possible, support only long-term solution. If you must address the symtoms right away, do so with restraint. As you strengthen long-term capability, do what you can to reduce dependency on the short-term fix.

    4. Tragedy of the Commons


    S

    Net Gains for A


    S S

    As Activity
    S

    Resource Limit
    S

    Total Activity
    S S

    Gain per Individual Activity

    Time

    B
    S

    Bs Activity
    S

    Net Gains for B

    Time

    4. Tragedy of the Commons


    Fixed Budget
    S

    Investment in features
    S

    Success from Product Investment


    S

    Investment in Integration

    DELAY
    Investment in Integration
    S

    Perceived Success from Integration

    Time

    B
    O

    Success from Product Investment


    S

    Time

    Fixed Budget

    Investment in features

    4. Tragedy of the Commons


    Example: Traffic jam in Kuala Lumpur. Everyone wishes to avoid traffic jam will use the highway. At first there is room for everyone, but after sometimes critical threshold has been reached, each driver brings about decrease in average speed. As individuals each person feels he or she is a victim of traffic but in effect they all conspired as a group to create traffic jam.

    4. Tragedy of the Commons


    Prescriptive actions:

    In any of the tragedy situations, there must be an overriding legislation for common good. To protect common resources some form of regulation should be introduced. Re-evaluate the nature of the commons to determine if there are ways to replace, renew or substitute the resources before it becomes depleted.

    5. Drifting Goals
    O

    Goal

    Pressure to Lower Goal


    S S

    Goal

    Gap

    Time
    S O

    Actual
    S

    Corrective Action

    Delay

    5. Drifting Goals
    S

    Perceived Desired Temperature


    O S

    Tolerance for Temperature

    Temperature Gap
    S O

    Temp

    Time
    Hop Out

    5. Drifting Goals
    Example: If you put a frog in cold water and slowly bring the water to boil the frog will jump out when it gets uncomfortable or even died in the boiling water If you put a frog in boiling water, it will croak IMMEDIATELY.

    5. Drifting Goals
    Prescriptive actions:

    Establish a clear transition plan from current reality to the goal including realistic timeframe to achieve the goal. Determine whether the drift in performance is the result of conflicts between the stated goal and implicit goals in the system. Anchor the goal to an external frame of reference (benchmarking).

    Systems Thinking
    Case Study

    Crop Damaging by Insects

    Reducing Crop Damage by Insects:


    When an insect is eating a crop, the conventional response is to spray the crop with a pesticide designed to kill that insect. Putting aside the limited effectiveness of some pesticides and the water and soil pollution they can cause, imagine a perfect pesticide that kills all of the insects against which it is used and which has no side effects on air, water, or soil.

    Is using this pesticide likely to make the farmer or company whose crops are being eaten better off?

    Reducing Crop Damage by Insects:


    If we represent the thinking used by those applying the pesticides, it would look like this:
    Pesticide Application
    1.
    O

    Insects Damaging Crops

    The letter indicates how the two variables are related: an s means they change in the same direction - if one goes up then the other goes up, and an o means they change in the opposite direction - if one goes up then the other goes down (or vice versa).

    2.

    This diagram is read a change in the amount of pesticide applied causes the number of insects damaging crops to change in the opposite direction.
    The belief being represented here is that as the amount of pesticide applied increases, the number of insects damaging crops decreases.

    3.

    Reducing Crop Damage by Insects:


    Number of Insect A Damaging Crop
    O O

    Number of Insect B Pesticide Application


    S S

    Number of Insect B Damaging Crop Total number of Insects damaging crop


    S

    Reducing Crop Damage by Insects:


    4. 5. The problem of crop damage due to insects often does get better - in the short term. Unfortunately, what frequently happens is that in following years the problem of crop damage gets worse and worse and the pesticide that formerly seemed so effective does not seem to help anymore. This is because the insect A that was eating the crops was controlling the population of another insect B, either by preying on it or by competing with it. When the pesticide kills the insects A that were eating the crops, it eliminates the control that those insects were applying on the population of the other insects, insects B). Then the population of the insects B that were being controlled explodes and continue to damage the crops.

    6.

    7.

    8.

    Reducing Crop Damage by Insects: So now how do you solve the problem of Insect B damaging the crop?

    Find the solution..

    Reducing Crop Damage by Insects The solution:


    With this picture of the system in mind, other actions with better long-term results have been developed, such as Integrated Pest Management, which includes controlling the insect eating the crops by introducing more of its predators into the area. These methods have been proven effective in studies conducted by MIT, the National Academy of Sciences, and others, and they also avoid running the risk of soil and water pollution.

    To more about Systems Thinking, read this book! THE FIFTH DISCIPLINES
    Personal Mastery Shared Vision Mental Models

    Systems Thinking Team Learning

    References
    Warfield, J. Societal Systems, Intersystems, 1989. Joseph OConnor & Ian McDermott. The Art of Systems Thinking, Thorsons, 1997. Senge, P.M.
    The Fifth Discipline: The Art & Practice of the Learning Organization, Doubleday, 1990. The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook: Strategies and Tools for Building A Learning Organization, Doubleday, 1994.

    System Dynamics / Systems Thinking Mega Link List http://www.uni-klu.ac.at/users/gossimit/links/bookmksd.htm The Way of Systems (System Archetypes) http://www.outsights.com/systems/theWay/theWay.htm Daniel Aronson, Overview of Systems Thinking, 1996-8 http://www.thinking.net

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