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    Energy Drivers For Emissions

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    Lavu Anil Chowdary
    The document summarizes global energy trends and their drivers such as population growth, energy security concerns, urbanization, and rising emissions. It discusses challenges like increased energy demand in China, which relies heavily on coal. The UK is also outlined, including its transition to less coal and more natural gas, as well as sectors of high energy use like transportation. Imperial College's Energy Futures Lab is introduced as researching topics like fuel cells, bioenergy, and solar power to help address these issues. The conclusion emphasizes the need for deploying existing technologies while developing breakthroughs through increased support of energy research and understanding socio-technical transitions.

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    Energy Drivers For Emissions

    Uploaded by

    Lavu Anil Chowdary
    53 views32 pages
    The document summarizes global energy trends and their drivers such as population growth, energy security concerns, urbanization, and rising emissions. It discusses challenges like increased energy demand in China, which relies heavily on coal. The UK is also outlined, including its transition to less coal and more natural gas, as well as sectors of high energy use like transportation. Imperial College's Energy Futures Lab is introduced as researching topics like fuel cells, bioenergy, and solar power to help address these issues. The conclusion emphasizes the need for deploying existing technologies while developing breakthroughs through increased support of energy research and understanding socio-technical transitions.

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    Energy Drivers for Emissions

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    The document summarizes global energy trends and their drivers such as population growth, energy security concerns, urbanization, and rising emissions. It discusses challenges like increased energy demand in China, which relies heavily on coal. The UK is also outlined, including its transition to less coal and more natural gas, as well as sectors of high energy use like transportation. Imperial College's Energy Futures Lab is introduced as researching topics like fuel cells, bioenergy, and solar power to help address these issues. The conclusion emphasizes the need for deploying existing technologies while developing breakthroughs through increased support of energy research and understanding socio-technical transitions.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as ppt, pdf, or txt
    53 views32 pages

    Energy Drivers For Emissions

    Uploaded by

    Lavu Anil Chowdary
    The document summarizes global energy trends and their drivers such as population growth, energy security concerns, urbanization, and rising emissions. It discusses challenges like increased energy demand in China, which relies heavily on coal. The UK is also outlined, including its transition to less coal and more natural gas, as well as sectors of high energy use like transportation. Imperial College's Energy Futures Lab is introduced as researching topics like fuel cells, bioenergy, and solar power to help address these issues. The conclusion emphasizes the need for deploying existing technologies while developing breakthroughs through increased support of energy research and understanding socio-technical transitions.

    Copyright:

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    Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    of 32

    Energy Drivers for Emissions

    Professor Nigel Brandon Shell Chair Sustainable Development in Energy EPSRC Energy Senior Research Fellow Executive Director Energy Futures Lab GO science Focal Point in Energy with China

    www.imperial.ac.uk/energyfutureslab

    Introduction
    Energy Futures Lab

    Global Energy Drivers and Trends.


    Energy in the UK. Conclusions.

    The Energy Futures Lab


    Established in 2005 to promote and stimulate multi-disciplinary research in energy at Imperial College. The EFL integrates across science, engineering, policy and business in the energy sector.

    Imperial College has a research budget of 30M pa for energy research, one third from industry. We have around 370 energy projects and 600 research staff and students undertaking energy research.
    Energy Technologies Fuel cells and hydrogen Bioenergy Solar Carbon capture and storage Oil and gas Transmission and distribution Transport Nuclear fission and fusion Combustion science and engineering www.imperial.ac.uk/energyfutureslab Integrating Themes Energy systems engineering Policy Environmental studies Sustainability analysis Economics Energy in society
    Service networks

    Sustainability factors

    Energy resource flow

    Human activities Land use

    City type 459

    City scenario

    Global Energy Drivers: 1 Population Growth


    2005 (million)
    Canada France Germany Italy Japan Russia United Kingdom 32 268 60 496 82 689 58 093 128 085 143 202 59 668

    2030 (million)
    38 880 66 269 79 090 57 385 117 794 124 121 65 895

    United States
    Brazil China India

    298 313
    186 405 1 315 844 1 103 371

    364 427
    233 884 1 438 394 1 489 653

    Mexico
    South Africa World Total

    107 029
    47 432 6 464 750

    269 211
    52 958 8 246 665

    World Population prospects: the 2006 revision, UN Dept. Economics and Social Affairs

    Global Energy Drivers: 2 Energy Security


    Rising Oil Prices.

    Shift in power from energy consumers to energy producers.


    Link between energy, water and food. 400 million people in India have no access to electricity.

    UK Energy Trade and consumption

    Source: UK Energy Sector Indicators, 2008, DECC.

    PROJECTED EUROPEAN GAS BALANCE


    800

    600

    billion cu m

    400

    200

    0 1980 1990 2002 Production 2010 Net imports 2020 2030

    Source: IEA

    Global Energy Drivers: 3 Urbanisation

    Population (billion)

    Source: ARUP

    Growth in Global Energy Demand

    Source: RCEP (2000)

    Global Energy Impact: CO2 emissions

    Source: DTI (2002). Energy: its impact on the environment and society.

    Global Energy Impact: 2 Pollution


    Guangzhou, China, March 2008, ~15.00

    Acid Rain in China


    More than 80 percent of Chinese cities in a recent World Bank survey had sulfur dioxide or nitrogen dioxide emissions above the World Health Organization's threshold. In 2006, 283 out of 524 cities recorded acid rain: 198 cities at 25% 87 cities at 75% 6 cities at 100%

    Acid rain: pH <5.6


    Air Quality Report for 2006, Ministry of Environmental Protection of P. R. China, http://www.sepa.gov.cn/

    Energy consumption in China is accelerating


    The increase in Chinas energy demand from 2002-05 equates to Japans annual energy use. 105 GW of (mostly) coal fired power plant were built in 2006 (total UK capacity ~80GW).

    3.0 2.5

    Hydro, nuclear wind, biomass

    Energy consumpation (GT SCE)

    Gas

    2.0
    Oil

    1.5
    Coal

    1.0 0.5 0.0


    1978 1980 1985 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

    China Statistical Yearbook 2007, National Bureau of Statistics of China, http://www.stats.gov.cn/

    Incremental increase in energy demand and energy related CO2 emissions 2000-2006.

    World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights, International Energy Agency

    Chinas energy consumption per capita is low

    toe per capita


    World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights, International Energy Agency

    Human development and energy use

    A. Pasternak, Global Energy Futures and Human Development: A Framework for Analysis, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory rep. no. UCRL-ID-140773 (2000).

    Rising Transport Demand in China


    Car ownership in China was 24 cars for every 1000 citizens in 2006, and will increase to 40 cars for every 1000 citizens by 2010. By contrast, the US has 765 vehicles per 1000 (2002 data), while Europe has an average of about 300 vehicles per 1000. China is already the third-largest car market in the world. The National Development and Reform Commission predicted that 55 million vehicles will be running on Chinas roads by 2010 . This number will increase to 370 million by 2030.
    Source: Green Car Congress, http://www.greencarcongress.com/2006/05/percapita_car_o.html
    8 7 6
    100 MT

    Oil Demand

    5 4 3 2 1

    Domestic production

    Transportation accounts for 40% of annual oil consumption now and is increasing sharply.

    0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

    Source: Tsinghua-BP Clean Energy Centre

    Global energy demand continues to rise


    18,000 16,000 14,000

    million tonnes oil equivalent

    12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0

    1971
    Coal Oil Gas

    2002
    Nuclear Hydro

    2010

    2020

    2030

    Biomass and Waste

    Other renewables

    IEA World Energy Outlook

    Major investment in new energy infrastructure


    $22 Trillion of investment in energy infrastructure is needed out to 2030 to meet demand.

    Cumulative Investment in Energy Infrastructure 2006-2030

    World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights, International Energy Agency

    UK: Share of fuels contributing to primary energy supply

    Source: UK Energy Sector Indicators, 2008, DECC.

    The size of the challenge: a potential scenario to reach 15% renewable energy by 2020 in the UK

    Source: BERR UK Renewable energy strategy consultation, June (2008).

    UK: Energy consumption by sector

    Source: UK Energy Sector Indicators, 2008, DECC.

    UK: Energy consumption by transport type

    Source: UK Energy Sector Indicators, 2008, DECC.

    UK: Average new car CO2 emissions and Car use per person

    Source: Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency; Department for Transport

    UK: Domestic energy consumption

    Source: Derived from BREHOMES, taken from the Domestic Energy Fact File. Building Research Establishment

    UK: Ownership of central heating

    Source: GfK Home Audit from the Domestic Energy Fact File, Building Research Establishment.

    UK: Carbon dioxide emissions on an IPCC basis and measurements towards targets

    Source: UK Energy Sector Indicators, 2008, DECC.

    UK: Sulphur dioxide emissions by sector

    Source: UK Energy Sector Indicators, 2008, DECC.

    Examples of Energy Technology Development at Imperial College: Fuel Cells, Bioenergy and Solar
    Fuel Cell Programme Basic materials and device research CeresPower spun out in 2001; now with 70 employees and partnership with British Gas to create domestic fuel cell CHP Units will reduce household CO2 emissions by 20% Solar Programme Photosynthesis, photochemistry, Bioenergy Programme organic and nano-materials, device Plant biology, microbiology, physics. biotechnology and systems process Targetting low cost engineering. organic solar cells Translated into a low CO2, low energy Tomorrows PV. technique to produce biofuel naturally. A vision for direct solar production of hydrogen and other fuels Artificial Leaf.

    PLANET 2050

    Grantham Institute for Climate Change

    Programme for Low And Negative Emission Technologies for 2050


    PLANET 2050 will explore how to deliver 80% cuts in net CO2 emissions and beyond quickly and without excessive costs through exploiting advanced technology and an integrated system approach.

    ELECTRIC FUTURES
    ELECTRIC MOBILITY

    LOW CARBON ELECTRICITY SUPPLY

    ALLELECTRIC BUILDINGS

    PLANET 2050
    CO2 FROM THE AIR

    BIOMASS BIOFUELS

    HYDROGEN ECONOMY

    LOW CARBON PRODUCTION

    Conclusions
    In the near term we need to rapidly deploy the technologies we have available today, both for energy demand reduction and for energy generation. But we will need to develop new technologies, behaviours and business models to meet our 2050 targets.

    We must explore a wide range of options for example the large-scale use of low-carbon electricity could help achieve the 80% reduction in carbon emissions by 2050. But the scientific and engineering challenges associated with this are significant. To develop breakthrough technologies we need to support energy R&D&D noting that public funding for energy research has more than halved globally in real terms since 1980.
    We need to understand how to manage the transition in our energy economy at Imperial we will explore this through our new Planet 2050 programme. Many areas of the energy sector are short of critical skills Universities have an important role to play in attracting, educating and retaining the very best young scientists and engineers to the energy sector.

    Thank you
    n.brandon@imperial.ac.uk www.imperial.ac.uk/energyfutureslab

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