Module 4 Slides
Module 4 Slides
Introduction
Example
Physician office
Example
Physician office
Service
Time
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
10
45
11
50
12
55
Patient
7:00
7:10
7:20
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
7:30
7:40
7:50
8:00
12
18
22
25
30
36
Patient
10
45
11
51
12
55
Patient 2
Patient 5
Patient 4
Patient 7
Patient 6
Patient 9
Patient 8
Patient 11
Patient 10
Patient 12
Time
7:00
7:10
7:20
7:30
7:40
7:50
Number of cases
Arrival
Time
Patient 3
0
2 min.
3 min.
4 min.
5 min.
Service times
6 min.
7 min.
8:00
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Arrival
Time
0
7
9
12
18
22
25
30
36
45
51
55
Service
Time
5
6
7
6
5
2
4
3
4
2
2
3
Service time
Wait time
7:00
7:10
7:20
7:30
7:40
7:50
8:00
7:00
7:10
7:20
7:30
7:40
7:50
8:00
5
4
3
2
Inventory
(Patients at
lab)
1
0
Response Time
Waiting time models: The
need for excess capacity
Processing
Buffer
Inflow
Demand process is random
Processing
p: average processing time
IA2
IA3
IA4
CVp =
St-Dev(processing times)
Average(processing times)
St-Dev(inter-arrival times)
Average(inter-arrival times)
Flow rate
Inventory
waiting Iq
Inflow
Entry to system
Outflow
Begin Service
Time in queue Tq
Increasing
Variability
Departure
Service Time p
Utilization
utilization
Time in queue Activity Time
1 utilization
CVa2 CV p2
Variability factor
Utilization factor
Service time factor
100%
Summary
Even though the utilization of a process might be less than 100%, it might still require long customer wait time
Variability is the root cause for this effect
As utilization approaches 100%, you will see a very steep increase in the wait time
If you want fast service, you will have to hold excess capacity
Response Time
More on Waiting time models /
Staffing to Demand
Inflow
Inventory
waiting Iq
Outflow
Flow rate
Entry to system
Begin Service
Time in queue Tq
Departure
Service Time p
Activity time
Time in queue
utilization 2( m 1) 1
1 utilization
CVa2 CV p2
Server
Utilization (Note: make sure <1)
Inventory
in service Ip
a p
am
m* 1
p
Inventory
waiting Iq
2 ( m 1) 1
p u
Tq
m 1 u
T Tq p
Outflow
Inflow
CVa2 CV p2
1
* Tq
a
Ip u*m
Iq
Entry to
system
Begin
Service
Waiting Time Tq
Departure
Service Time p
I I p Iq
Staffing Decision
Customers send emails to a help desk of an online retailer every 2
minutes, on average, and the standard deviation of the inter-arrival time
is also 2 minutes. The online retailer has three employees answering
emails. It takes on average 4 minutes to write a response email. The
standard deviation of the service times is 2 minutes.
How many employees would we have to add to get the average wait
time reduced to x minutes?
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0
50
100
150
200
Response Time
Capacity Pooling
Example:
Processing time=4 minutes
Inter-arrival time=5 minutes (at each server)
m=1, Cva=CVp=1
Tq =
Pooled Resources
(m=2)
Waiting
Time Tq
70.00
m=1
60.00
50.00
40.00
m=2
30.00
20.00
m=5
10.00
0.00
m=10
60%
65% 70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
Utilization u
Summary
Limitations of Pooling
Assumes flexibility
Increases complexity of work-flow
Can increase the variability of service time
Interrupts the relationship with the customer / one-face-to-the-customer
Group clinics
Electricity grid / smart grid
Flexible production plants
Variability
Waste
Inflexibility
Work Waste Value- Work Waste Valueadding
adding
Customer
demand
Capacity
Response Time
Scheduling / Access
Service times:
A: 9 minutes
B: 10 minutes
C: 4 minutes
D: 8 minutes
C
B
9 min.
19 min.
4 min.
12 min.
23 min.
Total wait time: 9+19+23=51min
21 min.
Total wait time: 4+13+21=38 min
Appointments
Open Access
Appointment systems
Response Time
Redesign the Service
Process
Many steps in the process / poor internal process flow (often driven by handoffs
and rework loops)
=> Redesign the service process
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/drive-thrus-emissions-fast-food-mcdonalds/5/12/2010/id/28261
Prof. Christian Terwiesch
Driving
Labs
Parking
Check-in
Drive home
Vitals
Waiting
PCP Appt.
Check out
Customer
supplies more
data
Customer
supplies more
data
Sign contracts
Collect basic
information
Explain final
document
Pre Approval
process; set up
workflow / account
responsibility
Pre Approval
process; set up
workflow / account
responsibility
Line of interaction
Onstage
actions
Line of visibility
Backstage
actions
Line of internal
interaction
Support
processes
Response Time
Loss Models
Pure waiting
problem, all customers
are perfectly patient.
Loss problems
Demand can be bigger than capacity
Impact of variability is on Flow Rate
All customers
enter the process,
some leave due to
their impatience
Customers do not
enter the process once
buffer has reached a
certain limit
Variability is always bad you pay through lower flow rate and/or longer flow time
Buffer or suffer: if you are willing to tolerate waiting, you dont have to give up on flow rate
Resources
3 trauma bays (m=3)
Ambulances /
Helicopters
Demand Process
One trauma case comes
in every 3 hours
(a=3 hours)
Service Process
Patient stays in trauma bay
for an average of 2 hours
(p=2 hours)
Define r = p / a
Example: r= 2 hours/ 3 hours
r=0.67
Recall m=3
Use Erlang Loss Table
Find that P3 (0.67)=0.0255
r=p/a
0.10
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.33
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.67
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.90
1.00
1
0.0909
0.1667
0.2000
0.2308
0.2500
0.2857
0.3333
0.3750
0.4000
0.4118
0.4286
0.4444
0.4737
0.5000
2
0.0045
0.0164
0.0244
0.0335
0.0400
0.0541
0.0769
0.1011
0.1176
0.1260
0.1385
0.1509
0.1757
0.2000
3
0.0002
0.0011
0.0020
0.0033
0.0044
0.0072
0.0127
0.0198
0.0255
0.0286
0.0335
0.0387
0.0501
0.0625
4
0.0000
0.0001
0.0001
0.0003
0.0004
0.0007
0.0016
0.0030
0.0042
0.0050
0.0062
0.0077
0.0111
0.0154
5
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0001
0.0002
0.0004
0.0006
0.0007
0.0009
0.0012
0.0020
0.0031
0.3
0.2
m=3
0.1
m=5
m=10
m=20
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Implied utilization
0.8
0.9
1.1
r = p/a
0.10
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.33
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.67
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.33
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.67
1.70
1.75
1.80
1.90
2.00
2.10
2.20
2.25
2.30
2.33
2.40
2.50
2.60
2.67
2.70
2.75
2.80
2.90
3.00
3.10
3.20
3.25
3.30
3.33
3.40
3.50
3.60
3.67
3.70
3.75
3.80
3.90
4.00
1
0.0909
0.1667
0.2000
0.2308
0.2500
0.2857
0.3333
0.3750
0.4000
0.4118
0.4286
0.4444
0.4737
0.5000
0.5238
0.5455
0.5556
0.5652
0.5714
0.5833
0.6000
0.6154
0.6250
0.6296
0.6364
0.6429
0.6552
0.6667
0.6774
0.6875
0.6923
0.6970
0.7000
0.7059
0.7143
0.7222
0.7273
0.7297
0.7333
0.7368
0.7436
0.7500
0.7561
0.7619
0.7647
0.7674
0.7692
0.7727
0.7778
0.7826
0.7857
0.7872
0.7895
0.7917
0.7959
0.8000
2
0.0045
0.0164
0.0244
0.0335
0.0400
0.0541
0.0769
0.1011
0.1176
0.1260
0.1385
0.1509
0.1757
0.2000
0.2237
0.2466
0.2577
0.2687
0.2759
0.2899
0.3103
0.3299
0.3425
0.3486
0.3577
0.3665
0.3836
0.4000
0.4156
0.4306
0.4378
0.4449
0.4495
0.4586
0.4717
0.4842
0.4923
0.4963
0.5021
0.5078
0.5188
0.5294
0.5396
0.5494
0.5541
0.5587
0.5618
0.5678
0.5765
0.5848
0.5902
0.5929
0.5968
0.6007
0.6082
0.6154
3
0.0002
0.0011
0.0020
0.0033
0.0044
0.0072
0.0127
0.0198
0.0255
0.0286
0.0335
0.0387
0.0501
0.0625
0.0758
0.0898
0.0970
0.1043
0.1092
0.1192
0.1343
0.1496
0.1598
0.1650
0.1726
0.1803
0.1955
0.2105
0.2254
0.2400
0.2472
0.2543
0.2591
0.2684
0.2822
0.2956
0.3044
0.3087
0.3152
0.3215
0.3340
0.3462
0.3580
0.3695
0.3751
0.3807
0.3843
0.3915
0.4021
0.4124
0.4191
0.4224
0.4273
0.4321
0.4415
0.4507
4
0.0000
0.0001
0.0001
0.0003
0.0004
0.0007
0.0016
0.0030
0.0042
0.0050
0.0062
0.0077
0.0111
0.0154
0.0204
0.0262
0.0294
0.0328
0.0351
0.0400
0.0480
0.0565
0.0624
0.0655
0.0702
0.0750
0.0850
0.0952
0.1058
0.1166
0.1221
0.1276
0.1313
0.1387
0.1499
0.1612
0.1687
0.1725
0.1781
0.1837
0.1949
0.2061
0.2172
0.2281
0.2336
0.2390
0.2426
0.2497
0.2603
0.2707
0.2775
0.2809
0.2860
0.2910
0.3009
0.3107
5
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0001
0.0002
0.0004
0.0006
0.0007
0.0009
0.0012
0.0020
0.0031
0.0045
0.0063
0.0073
0.0085
0.0093
0.0111
0.0142
0.0177
0.0204
0.0218
0.0240
0.0263
0.0313
0.0367
0.0425
0.0488
0.0521
0.0554
0.0577
0.0624
0.0697
0.0773
0.0825
0.0852
0.0892
0.0933
0.1016
0.1101
0.1187
0.1274
0.1318
0.1362
0.1392
0.1452
0.1541
0.1631
0.1691
0.1721
0.1766
0.1811
0.1901
0.1991
6
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0002
0.0003
0.0005
0.0008
0.0012
0.0015
0.0018
0.0021
0.0026
0.0035
0.0047
0.0056
0.0061
0.0069
0.0078
0.0098
0.0121
0.0147
0.0176
0.0192
0.0208
0.0220
0.0244
0.0282
0.0324
0.0354
0.0369
0.0393
0.0417
0.0468
0.0522
0.0578
0.0636
0.0666
0.0697
0.0718
0.0760
0.0825
0.0891
0.0937
0.0960
0.0994
0.1029
0.1100
0.1172
7
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0001
0.0001
0.0002
0.0003
0.0003
0.0004
0.0005
0.0008
0.0011
0.0013
0.0015
0.0017
0.0020
0.0027
0.0034
0.0044
0.0055
0.0061
0.0068
0.0073
0.0083
0.0100
0.0119
0.0133
0.0140
0.0152
0.0164
0.0190
0.0219
0.0249
0.0283
0.0300
0.0318
0.0331
0.0356
0.0396
0.0438
0.0468
0.0483
0.0506
0.0529
0.0577
0.0627
8
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0002
0.0003
0.0003
0.0004
0.0005
0.0006
0.0009
0.0011
0.0015
0.0017
0.0019
0.0021
0.0025
0.0031
0.0039
0.0044
0.0047
0.0052
0.0057
0.0068
0.0081
0.0096
0.0112
0.0120
0.0130
0.0136
0.0149
0.0170
0.0193
0.0210
0.0218
0.0232
0.0245
0.0274
0.0304
9
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0002
0.0003
0.0004
0.0004
0.0005
0.0005
0.0007
0.0009
0.0011
0.0013
0.0014
0.0016
0.0018
0.0022
0.0027
0.0033
0.0040
0.0043
0.0047
0.0050
0.0056
0.0066
0.0077
0.0085
0.0089
0.0096
0.0102
0.0117
0.0133
10
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0002
0.0002
0.0003
0.0003
0.0004
0.0004
0.0005
0.0006
0.0008
0.0010
0.0013
0.0014
0.0016
0.0017
0.0019
0.0023
0.0028
0.0031
0.0033
0.0036
0.0039
0.0046
0.0053
rm
m!
Pm (r )
r1 r 2
rm
1
...
1! 2!
m!
Response Time
Review
(My-law.com)
My-law.com is a recent start-up trying to cater to customers in search of legal services online. Unlike traditional
law firms, My-law.com allows for extensive interaction between lawyers and their customers via telephone and
the Internet. This process is used in the upfront part of the customer interaction, largely consisting of
answering some basic customer questions prior to entering a formal relationship. In order to allow customers to
interact with the firms lawyers, customers are encouraged to send e-mails to my-lawyer@My-law.com. From
there, the incoming e-mails are distributed to the lawyer who is currently on call. Given the broad skills of the
lawyers, each lawyer can respond to each incoming request.
E-mails arrive from 8 A.M. to 6 P.M. at a rate of 10 e-mails per hour (coefficient of variation
for the arrivals is 1). At each moment in time, there is exactly one lawyer on call,
that is, sitting at his or her desk waiting for incoming e-mails. It takes the lawyer, on average,
5 minutes to write the response e-mail. The standard deviation of this is 4 minutes.
a. What is the average time a customer has to wait for the response to his/her e-mail, ignoring any
transmission times? Note: This includes the time it takes the lawyer to start writing the e-mail and the actual
writing time.
b. How many e-mails will a lawyer have received at the end of a 10-hour day?
c. When not responding to e-mails, the lawyer on call is encouraged to actively pursue
cases that potentially could lead to large settlements. How much time on a 10-hour day
can a My-law.com lawyer dedicate to this activity
Jims Computer
Jim wants to find someone to fix his computer. PC Fixers (PF) is a local service that offers such computer
repairs. A new customer walks into PF every 10 minutes (with a standard deviation of 10 minutes). PF has a
staff of 5 computer technicians. Service times average around 40 minutes (with a standard deviation of 40
minutes).
JC1. If Jim walks into PF, how long must he wait in line before he can see a technician? (Only include the
waiting time, not any service time)
JC2. How many customers will, on average, be waiting for their computer to be fixed?
Real Compute
RealCompute offers real-time computing services. The company owns 4 supercomputers that can be accessed
through the internet. Their customers send jobs that arrive on average every 4 minutes (inter-arrival times are
exponentially distributed and, thus, the standard deviation of the inter-arrival times is 4 minutes).
Each job takes on average 10 minutes of one of the supercomputers (during this time, the computer cannot
perform any other work). Customers pay $20 for the execution of each job. Given the time-sensitive nature of
the calculations, if no supercomputer is available, the job is redirected to a supercomputer of a partner company
called OnComp, which charges $40 per job to Real Compute (OnComp always has supercomputer capacity
available).
RC1. What is the probability with which an incoming job can be executed by one of the supercomputers owned
by RealCompute?
RC2. How much does RealCompute pay on average to OnComp (in $s per hour)?
Contractor
A contractor building houses and doing renovation work has currently six projects planned for the season. Below
are the items, and the estimated times to complete them:
New construction at Springfield
Bathroom remodeling at Herne
Training time for solar roof installation
Update web-site
Renovation of deck at Haverford
New kitchen at Rosemont
- 60 days
- 10 days
- 2 days
- 6 days
- 8 days
- 20 days
Suppose the contractor starts immediately with the first project, no other projects get added to this list, and the
contractor sequences them so as to minimize the average time the project waits before it gets started. What will
the contractor be doing in 30 days from the start date of the first project?
Call Center
Consider a call center that has a constant staffing level. Because of increased demand in the morning,
the call center has a very high utilization in the morning and a very low utilization in the afternoon. Which
of the following will decrease the average waiting time in the call center?
(a) Add more servers
(b) Decrease the service time coefficient of variation
(c) Decrease the average service time
(d) Level the demand between the morning hours and the afternoon hours
(e) All of the above