Bonds and Their Valuation: Key Features of Bonds Bond Valuation Measuring Yield Assessing Risk

Bonds and Their Valuation
Key features of bonds

Bond valuation
Measuring yield
Assessing risk
What is a bond?
A long-term debt instrument in

which a borrower agrees to make
payments of principal and
interest, on specific dates, to the
holders of the bond.
Key Features of a Bond
Par value face amount of the bond, which

is paid at maturity (assume Rs. 1,000).
Coupon interest rate stated interest rate
(generally fixed) paid by the issuer. Multiply
by par to get rupee payment of interest.
Maturity date years until the bond must be
repaid.
Issue date when the bond was issued.
Yield to maturity - rate of return earned on
a bond held until maturity (also called the
promised yield).
Effect of a call provision
Allows issuer to refund the bond

issue if rates decline (helps the
issuer, but hurts the investor).
Borrowers are willing to pay
more, and lenders require more,
for callable bonds.
Most bonds have a deferred call
and a declining call premium.
What is a sinking fund?
Provision to pay off a loan over

its life rather than all at maturity.
Similar to amortization on a term
loan.
Reduces risk to investor,
shortens average maturity.
But not good for investors if
rates decline after issuance.
How are sinking funds

executed?
Call x% of the issue at par, for sinking

fund purposes.
Likely to be used if kd is below the coupon

rate and the bond sells at a premium.
Buy bonds in the open market.
Likely to be used if kd is above the

coupon rate and the bond sells at a
discount.
The value of financial

assets
0
k
Value
...
CF1
CF2
CFn
CF1
CF2
CFn
Value
...
1
2
n
(1 k)
(1 k)
(1 k)
Other types (features) of

bonds
Convertible bond may be exchanged for

common stock of the firm, at the holders
option.
Warrant long-term option to buy a stated
number of shares of common stock at a
specified price.
Putable bond allows holder to sell the
bond back to the company prior to maturity.
Income bond pays interest only when
interest is earned by the firm.
Indexed bond interest rate paid is based
upon the rate of inflation.
What is the opportunity cost of

debt capital?
The discount rate (ki ) is the

opportunity cost of capital, and is
the rate that could be earned on
alternative investments of equal
risk.
ki = k* + IP + MRP + DRP + LP
What is the value of a 10-year,

10% annual coupon bond, if kd =
10%?
0
k
VB = ?
...
100
100
100 + 1,000
Rs.100
Rs.100 Rs.1,000
VB
...
1
10
(1.10)
(1.10)
(1.10)10
VB Rs.90.91 ... Rs.38.55 Rs.385.54
VB Rs.1,000
How to value a bond
This bond has a Rs. 1,000 lump sum due at t

= 10, and annual Rs. 100 coupon payments
beginning at t = 1 and continuing through t
= 10, the price of the bond can be found by
solving for the PV of these cash flows.
PV = Rs. 1,000
An example:
Increasing inflation and kd
Suppose inflation rises by 3%, causing

kd = 13%. When kd rises above the
coupon rate, the bonds value falls
below par, and sells at a discount.
PV = Rs. 837.21
An example:
Decreasing inflation and kd
Suppose inflation falls by 3%, causing

kd = 7%. When kd falls below the
coupon rate, the bonds value rises
above par, and sells at a premium.
PV = Rs. 1210.71
The price path of a bond
VB
What would happen to the value of this

bond if its required rate of return remained
at 10%, or at 13%, or at 7% until maturity?
1,372
1,211
kd = 7%.
kd = 10%.
1,000
837
775
kd = 13%.
30
25
20
15
10
Years
to Maturity
Bond values over time
At maturity, the value of any bond must

equal its par value.
If kd remains constant:
The value of a premium bond would
decrease over time, until it reached Rs.
1,000.
The value of a discount bond would
increase over time, until it reached Rs.
1,000.
A value of a par bond stays at Rs. 1,000.
What is the YTM on a 10-year, 9%

annual coupon, Rs. 1,000 par value
bond, selling for Rs. 887?
Must find the kd that solves this model.
INT
INT
M
VB
...
1
N
(1 k d )
(1 k d )
(1 k d ) N
90
90
1,000
Rs.887
...
1
10
(1 k d )
(1 k d )
(1 k d )10
How to find the YTM
Solving for IRR, the YTM of this bond

is 10.91%. This bond sells at a
discount, because YTM > coupon
rate.
Find YTM, if the bond price was

Rs. 1,134.20.
Solving for IRR, the YTM of this bond

is 7.08%. This bond sells at a
premium, because YTM < coupon
rate.
Definitions
Annual coupon payment
Current yi
eld(CY)
Currentprice
Changein price
Capitalgainsyield(CGY)
Beginningprice
Expected
Expected
Expectedtotalreturn YTM
CY CGY
An example:
Current and capital gains yield
Find the current yield and the capital

gains yield for a 10-year, 9% annual
coupon bond that sells for Rs. 887,
and has a face value of Rs. 1,000.
Current yield
= Rs. 90 / Rs. 887
= 0.1015 = 10.15%
Calculating capital gains

yield
YTM = Current yield + Capital gains yield
CGY = YTM CY
= 10.91% - 10.15%
= 0.76%
Could also find the expected price one year
from now and divide the change in price by the
beginning price, which gives the same answer.
What is interest rate (or price)

risk?
Interest rate risk is the concern that rising

kd will cause the value of a bond to fall.
% change 1 yr
kd
10yr
% change
+4.8% Rs. 1,048 5%
Rs. 1,386
+38.6%
Rs. 1,000
10%
Rs. 1,000
-4.4%
Rs. 956 15%
Rs. 749
-25.1%
The 10-year bond is more sensitive to

interest rate changes, and hence has more
interest rate risk.
What is reinvestment rate

risk?
Reinvestment rate risk is the concern

that kd will fall, and future CFs will have
to be reinvested at lower rates, hence
reducing income.
EXAMPLE: Suppose you just won
Rs. 500,000 playing the lottery. You
intend to invest the money and
live off the interest.
Reinvestment rate risk

example
You may invest in either a 10-year bond or

a series of ten 1-year bonds. Both 10-year
and 1-year bonds currently yield 10%.
If you choose the 1-year bond strategy:
After Year 1, you receive Rs. 50,000 in
income and have Rs. 500,000 to reinvest.
But, if 1-year rates fall to 3%, your
annual income would fall to Rs. 15,000.
If you choose the 10-year bond strategy:
You can lock in a 10% interest rate, and
Rs. 50,000 annual income.
Conclusions about interest rate

and reinvestment rate risk
Short-term
AND/OR High
coupon bonds
Long-term
AND/OR Low
coupon bonds
Interest
rate risk
Low
High
Reinvestme
nt rate risk
High
Low
CONCLUSION: Nothing is riskless!
Semiannual bonds
1.
2.
3.
Multiply years by 2 : number of

periods = 2n.
Divide nominal rate by 2 : periodic
rate (I/YR) = kd / 2.
Divide annual coupon by 2 : PMT =
ann cpn / 2.
What is the value of a 10-year, 10%

semiannual coupon bond, if kd =
13%?
1.
2.
3.
Multiply years by 2 : N = 2 * 10 = 20.

Divide nominal rate by 2 : I/YR = 13 /
2 = 6.5.
Divide annual coupon by 2 : PMT =
100 / 2 = 50.
Would you prefer to buy a 10-year,

10% annual coupon bond or a 10year, 10% semiannual coupon bond,
all else equal?
The semiannual bonds effective rate

is:
m
2
iNom
0.10
EFF% 1
1 1
1 10.25%
m
2
10.25% > 10% (the annual bonds

effective rate), so you would prefer the
semiannual bond.
If the proper price for this semiannual

bond is Rs. 1,000, what would be the
proper price for the annual coupon
bond?
The annual coupon bond should sell at Rs.

984.80
The semiannual coupon bond has an
effective rate of 10.25%, and the annual
coupon bond should earn the same EAR. At
these prices, the annual and semiannual
coupon bonds are in equilibrium, as they
earn the same effective return.
A 10-year, 10% semiannual coupon

bond selling for Rs. 1,135.90 can be
called in 4 years for Rs. 1,050, what is
its yield to call (YTC)?
The bonds yield to maturity can be

determined to be 8%. Solving for the YTC
is identical to solving for YTM, except the
time to call is used for N and the call price
is FV.
YTC = 3.568%
Yield to call
3.568% represents the periodic

semiannual yield to call.
YTCNOM = kNOM = 3.568% x 2 =
7.137% is the rate that a broker
would quote.
The effective yield to call can be
calculated
YTCEFF = (1.03568)2 1 = 7.26%
If you bought these callable bonds,

would you be more likely to earn the
YTM or YTC?
The coupon rate = 10% compared to

YTC = 7.137%. The firm could raise
money by selling new bonds which
pay 7.137% semiannually.
Could replace bonds paying Rs. 100
per year with bonds paying only Rs.
71.37 per year.
Investors should expect a call, and to
earn the YTC of 7.137%, rather than
the YTM of 8%.
When is a call more likely to

occur?
In general, if a bond sells at a

premium, then (1) coupon > kd, so
(2) a call is more likely.
So, expect to earn:
YTC on premium bonds.

YTM on par & discount bonds.
Default risk
If an issuer defaults, investors

receive less than the promised
return. Therefore, the expected
return on corporate and municipal
bonds is less than the promised
return.
Influenced by the issuers financial
strength and the terms of the bond
contract.
Evaluating default risk:

Bond ratings
Investment Grade
Junk Bonds
Moody
s
Aaa Aa A Baa
Ba B Caa C
S&P
AAA AA A BBB
BB B CCC
D
Bond ratings are designed to reflect

the probability of a bond issue going
into default.
Factors affecting default risk and

bond ratings
Financial performance
Debt ratio
TIE ratio
Current ratio
Bond contract provisions
Secured vs. Unsecured debt

Senior vs. subordinated debt
Guarantee and sinking fund provisions
Debt maturity
Other factors affecting default

risk
Earnings stability
Regulatory environment
Potential product liabilities
Pension liabilities
Potential labor problems
Accounting policies

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Bonds and Their Valuation

Key features of bonds

A long-term debt instrument in

Key Features of a Bond

Par value face amount of the bond, which

Effect of a call provision

Allows issuer to refund the bond

What is a sinking fund?

Provision to pay off a loan over

How are sinking funds

Call x% of the issue at par, for sinking

Likely to be used if kd is below the coupon

Buy bonds in the open market.

Likely to be used if kd is above the

The value of financial

Other types (features) of

Convertible bond may be exchanged for

What is the opportunity cost of

The discount rate (ki ) is the

What is the value of a 10-year,

How to value a bond

This bond has a Rs. 1,000 lump sum due at t

Suppose inflation rises by 3%, causing

Suppose inflation falls by 3%, causing

The price path of a bond

What would happen to the value of this

Bond values over time

At maturity, the value of any bond must

What is the YTM on a 10-year, 9%

Must find the kd that solves this model.

How to find the YTM

Solving for IRR, the YTM of this bond

Find YTM, if the bond price was

Solving for IRR, the YTM of this bond

Find the current yield and the capital

= Rs. 90 / Rs. 887

Calculating capital gains

What is interest rate (or price)

Interest rate risk is the concern that rising

The 10-year bond is more sensitive to

What is reinvestment rate

Reinvestment rate risk is the concern

Reinvestment rate risk

You may invest in either a 10-year bond or

Conclusions about interest rate

CONCLUSION: Nothing is riskless!

Multiply years by 2 : number of

What is the value of a 10-year, 10%

Multiply years by 2 : N = 2 * 10 = 20.

Would you prefer to buy a 10-year,

The semiannual bonds effective rate

10.25% > 10% (the annual bonds

If the proper price for this semiannual

The annual coupon bond should sell at Rs.

A 10-year, 10% semiannual coupon

The bonds yield to maturity can be

3.568% represents the periodic

YTCEFF = (1.03568)2 1 = 7.26%