CH 09
CH 09
CH 09
JOHN S. LOUCKS
St. Edwards University
2
Chapter 9
Hypothesis Testing
Tests About a Population Proportion
Hypothesis Testing and Decision Making
Calculating the Probability of Type II Errors
Determining the Sample Size for a Hypothesis
Test
about a Population Mean
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Developing Null and Alternative
Hypotheses
Hypothesis testing can be used to determine
whether a statement about the value of a
population parameter should or should not be
rejected.
The null hypothesis, denoted by H0 , is a
tentative assumption about a population
parameter.
The alternative hypothesis, denoted by Ha, is
the opposite of what is stated in the null
hypothesis.
Hypothesis testing is similar to a criminal trial.
The hypotheses are:
H0: The defendant is innocent
Ha: The defendant is guilty
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Developing Null and Alternative
Hypotheses
Testing Research Hypotheses
The research hypothesis should be
expressed as the alternative hypothesis.
The conclusion that the research hypothesis
is true comes from sample data that
contradict the null hypothesis.
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Developing Null and Alternative
Hypotheses
Testing the Validity of a Claim
Manufacturers claims are usually given the
benefit of the doubt and stated as the null
hypothesis.
The conclusion that the claim is false comes
from sample data that contradict the null
hypothesis.
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Developing Null and Alternative
Hypotheses
Testing in Decision-Making Situations
A decision maker might have to choose
between two courses of action, one
associated with the null hypothesis and
another associated with the alternative
hypothesis.
Example: Accepting a shipment of goods
from a supplier or returning the shipment of
goods to the supplier.
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A Summary of Forms for Null and
Alternative Hypotheses about a
Population Mean
The equality part of the hypotheses always
appears in the null hypothesis.
In general, a hypothesis test about the value
of a population mean must take one of the
following three forms (where 0 is the
hypothesized value of the population mean).
H0: > 0 H0: < 0 H0: = 0
Ha: < 0 Ha: > 0 H : 0
a
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Example: Metro EMS
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Example: Metro EMS
Population Condition
H0 True Ha True
Conclusion ( ) ( )
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The Use of p-Values
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The Steps of Hypothesis Testing
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One-Tailed Tests about a Population Mean:
Large-Sample Case (n > 30)
Hypotheses
H0: or H0:
Ha: Ha:
Test Statistic
Known Unknown
x 0 x 0
z z
/ n s/ n
Rejection Rule
Reject H0 if z > zReject H0 if z < -z
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Example: Metro EMS
Do Not Reject H0
1.645x
x
12 c
(Critical value)
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Example: Metro EMS
Reject H0
z
0 1.645 2.47
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Two-Tailed Tests about a Population Mean:
Ha:
Rejection Rule
Reject H0 if |z| > z
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Example: Glow Toothpaste
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Example: Glow Toothpaste
Ha:
Rejection Rule
ssuming a .05 level of significance,
Reject H0 if z < -1.96 or if z > 1.96
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Example: Glow Toothpaste
z
-1.96 0 1.96
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Example: Glow Toothpaste
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Example: Glow Toothpaste
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Tests about a Population Mean:
Small-Sample Case (n < 30)
Test Statistic Known Unknown
x 0 x 0
t t
/ n s/ n
This test statistic has a t distribution with n - 1
degrees of freedom.
Rejection Rule
One-Tailed Two-Tailed
H0: Reject H0 if t > t
H0: Reject H0 if t < -t
H0: Reject H0 if |t| > t
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p -Values and the t Distribution
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Example: Highway Patrol
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Summary of Test Statistics to be Used in a
Hypothesis Test about a Population Mean
Yes No
n > 30 ?
No
s known ? Popul.
Yes
approx.
Yes normal
Use s to
estimate s No ?
s known ?
No
Yes Use s to
estimate s
x x x x Increase n
z z z t
/ n s/ n / n s/ n to > 30
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A Summary of Forms for Null and
Alternative Hypotheses about a
Population Proportion
The equality part of the hypotheses always
appears in the null hypothesis.
In general, a hypothesis test about the value
of a population proportion p must take one of
the following three forms (where p0 is the
hypothesized value of the population
proportion).
H0: p > p0 H0: p < p0 0: p = p0
H
Ha: p < p0 Ha: p > p0 Ha: p p0
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Tests about a Population Proportion:
Large-Sample Case (np > 5 and n(1 - p) >
5)
Test Statistic p p0
z
p
where: p0 (1 p0 )
p
n
Rejection Rule
One-Tailed Two-Tailed
H0: pp Reject H0 if z > z
H0: pp Reject H0 if z < -z
H0: pp Reject H0 if |z| > z
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Example: NSC
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Example: NSC
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Example: NSC
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Hypothesis Testing and Decision Making
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Calculating the Probability of a Type II
Error
in Hypothesis Tests about a Population
1. Formulate the null Mean
and alternative
hypotheses.
2. Use the level of significance to establish a
rejection rule based on the test statistic.
3. Using the rejection rule, solve for the value of
the sample mean that identifies the rejection
region.
4. Use the results from step 3 to state the values
of the sample mean that lead x to the
acceptance of H0; this defines the acceptance
region.
5. Using the sampling distribution of for any
value of from the alternative hypothesis,
and the acceptance region from step 4,
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Example: Metro EMS (revisited)
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Example: Metro EMS (revisited)
12.8323
z
Values of 3.2/ 40 1-
14.0 -2.31 .0104 .9896
13.6 -1.52 .0643 .9357
13.2 -0.73 .2327 .7673
12.83 0.00 .5000 .5000
12.8 0.06 .5239 .4761
12.4 0.85 .8023 .1977
12.0001 1.645 .9500 .0500
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Example: Metro EMS (revisited)
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Power of the Test
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Determining the Sample Size
for a Hypothesis Test About a Population
Mean
( z z ) 2 2
n
( 0 a )2
where
z = z value providing an area of in the
tail
z = z value providing an area of in the
tail
= population standard deviation
0 = value of the population mean in H0
a = value of the population mean used for
the Type II error
Note: In a two-tailed hypothesis test, use z /2 not
z
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Relationship among , , and n
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End of Chapter 9
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