JAZZ Sellside MA Pitchbook
JAZZ Sellside MA Pitchbook
JAZZ Sellside MA Pitchbook
Project Jaguar
Goldman Stanley
Table of Contents
Executive Summary 3
Jaguar Valuation 5
Process Recommendations 38
Appendix 43
Goldman Stanley 2
Executive Summary
Goldman Stanley 3
Executive Summary
As of May 9, 2014, Jaguars share price and valuation multiples have more than doubled over the last twelve months
Even at its current levels, however, Jaguar is still undervalued relative to peer specialty pharmaceutical companies, and
on an intrinsic, cash-flow basis
Given its prominence in the market, the record healthcare M&A activity in the first half of this year, and the soaring
interest in tax inversion deals, Jaguar could make for an attractive acquisition candidate
Such a strategy would allow Jaguar to maximize shareholder value, expand its geographic reach and distribution
channels, and acquire more resources for future research & development efforts and/or M&A activity
Given Jaguars unique attributes, we believe a purchase premium above 50%, implying a share price of ~$200+, is
possible with the proper positioning and process
We recommend a highly targeted process focused on the most likely (Tier 1) potential partners, along with an
outreach to Tier 2 potential partners while discussions with Tier 1 partners are ongoing
Goldman Stanley 4
Jaguar Valuation
Goldman Stanley 5
Valuation Summary Operating Scenarios
Xyrem Revenue After Peak $300 million / year $377 million / year
Annual Price Increases CAGR of 6%; max of ~$79,000 CAGR of 11%; max of
Through Peak Revenue in FY 21 ~$122,000 in FY 21
Goldman Stanley 6
Summary of Valuation Implications
Comparable Also point to the same result Jaguar trades below the median EV / EBITDA
#2
Companies multiple of peer companies
Discounted Cash Flow Produces the highest implied valuation, primarily because Jaguars value is
#3
(DCF) Analysis heavily dependent on Xyrem pricing 5-10 years into the future
Similar M&A deals imply a much lower valuation, but we believe these
#4 Precedent Transactions
multiples are less relevant due to the lack of comparable deals
Goldman Stanley 7
Base Case Financial Projections
($ USD in Millions except for $ per Share Figures)
Projected
Income Statement: Units: FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Revenue:
Existing Products:
Xyrem Sales: $M $ 578.6 $ 766.6 $ 975.1 $ 1,205.9 $ 1,447.1 $ 1,709.4 $ 1,975.3 $ 276.3 $ 301.4 $ 301.4
Erwinaze Sales: $M 203.4 234.2 266.6 300.7 336.7 346.8 385.8 397.3 439.6 452.7
Defitelio Sales: $M 57.8 79.8 107.1 140.7 182.0 209.3 240.7 276.9 318.4 366.1
Other Sales and Royalties: $M 142.0 156.2 168.7 182.1 193.1 204.7 214.9 225.6 234.7 244.0
Risk-Adjusted Pipeline Drug Sales:
JZP-110 Sales: $M - - - 18.1 43.4 76.9 88.9 135.6 152.3 196.1
JZP-386 Sales: $M - - - - - - - - - -
Total Revenue: $M 981.8 1,236.7 1,517.4 1,847.6 2,202.3 2,547.1 2,905.6 1,311.7 1,446.4 1,560.5
Revenue Growth: % 12.5% 26.0% 22.7% 21.8% 19.2% 15.7% 14.1% (54.9%) 10.3% 7.9%
Operating Income (EBIT): $M 266.7 563.2 716.8 895.2 1,088.2 1,286.5 1,477.1 549.9 616.9 674.2
Operating (EBIT) Margin: % 27.2% 45.5% 47.2% 48.5% 49.4% 50.5% 50.8% 41.9% 42.6% 43.2%
Net Income: $M $ 178.8 $ 430.6 $ 556.6 $ 719.2 $ 877.5 $ 1,054.8 $ 1,211.2 $ 450.9 $ 505.8 $ 552.8
Effective Tax Rate: % 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0%
Diluted Shares Outstanding: $M 64.4 67.5 70.6 73.9 77.4 81.0 84.8 88.8 92.9 97.2
Diluted Earnings Per Share (EPS): $ as Stated $ 2.77 $ 6.38 $ 7.88 $ 9.73 $ 11.34 $ 13.02 $ 14.29 $ 5.08 $ 5.44 $ 5.68
EBITDA: $M $ 527.1 $ 695.5 $ 847.8 $ 1,029.8 $ 1,224.0 $ 1,410.1 $ 1,606.8 $ 665.0 $ 734.9 $ 795.1
EBITDA Margin: % 53.7% 56.2% 55.9% 55.7% 55.6% 55.4% 55.3% 50.7% 50.8% 51.0%
Goldman Stanley 8
Management Case Financial Projections
($ USD in Millions except for $ per Share Figures)
Projected
Income Statement: Units: FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Revenue:
Existing Products:
Xyrem Sales: $M $ 773.7 $ 1,083.1 $ 1,455.7 $ 1,902.2 $ 2,391.3 $ 2,959.2 $ 3,551.1 $ 4,218.7 $ 376.8 $ 376.8
Erwinaze Sales: $M 203.4 234.2 266.6 300.7 336.7 346.8 385.8 397.3 439.6 452.7
Defitelio Sales: $M 57.8 79.8 107.1 140.7 182.0 209.3 240.7 276.9 318.4 366.1
Other Sales and Royalties: $M 142.0 156.2 168.7 182.1 193.1 204.7 214.9 225.6 234.7 244.0
Risk-Adjusted Pipeline Drug Sales:
JZP-110 Sales: $M - - - 28.5 71.7 133.2 159.8 253.1 292.7 387.8
JZP-386 Sales: $M - - - - - - - - - -
Total Revenue: $M 1,176.9 1,553.3 1,998.0 2,554.3 3,174.8 3,853.2 4,552.3 5,371.6 1,662.1 1,827.6
Revenue Growth: % 34.9% 32.0% 28.6% 27.8% 24.3% 21.4% 18.1% 18.0% (69.1%) 10.0%
Operating Income (EBIT): $M 380.8 754.7 1,003.9 1,312.6 1,657.1 2,044.0 2,424.9 2,870.7 739.4 825.0
Operating (EBIT) Margin: % 32.4% 48.6% 50.2% 51.4% 52.2% 53.0% 53.3% 53.4% 44.5% 45.1%
Net Income: $M $ 272.4 $ 587.6 $ 792.0 $ 1,061.5 $ 1,344.0 $ 1,675.9 $ 1,988.4 $ 2,353.9 $ 606.3 $ 676.5
Effective Tax Rate: % 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0%
Diluted Shares Outstanding: $M 64.4 67.5 70.6 73.9 77.4 81.0 84.8 88.8 92.9 97.2
Diluted Earnings Per Share (EPS): $ as Stated $ 4.23 $ 8.71 $ 11.21 $ 14.36 $ 17.37 $ 20.69 $ 23.45 $ 26.52 $ 6.53 $ 6.96
EBITDA: $M $ 642.0 $ 888.6 $ 1,137.7 $ 1,452.2 $ 1,800.7 $ 2,179.4 $ 2,571.1 $ 3,030.4 $ 860.0 $ 949.4
EBITDA Margin: % 54.6% 57.2% 56.9% 56.9% 56.7% 56.6% 56.5% 56.4% 51.7% 52.0%
Goldman Stanley 9
Revenue and EBITDA: Management Case vs. Base Case
($ USD in Billions)
Revenue Projections
$6.0 B $5.4 B
$5.0 B $4.6 B
$3.9 B
$4.0 B
$3.2 B
$3.0 B $2.6 B Management
$2.0 B $1.8 B Base
$2.0 B $1.6 B $1.7 B
$1.2 B
$1.0 B
$0.0 B
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
EBITDA Projections
$3.5 B
$3.0 B
$3.0 B
$2.6 B
$2.5 B $2.2 B
$2.0 B $1.8 B
$1.5 B Management
$1.5 B $1.1 B
$0.9 B Base
$0.9 B $0.9 B
$1.0 B $0.6 B
$0.5 B
$0.0 B
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Goldman Stanley 10
Projected Xyrem Sales Pricing vs. Patient Growth
($ USD in Millions)
Goldman Stanley 11
Valuation Summary Base Case
($ USD in Dollars as Stated)
Jaguar Current Share Price(1):
($ USD in Billions)
$2.5 B
$2.0 B
CY 2014E
$1.5 B
CY 2015E
$1.0 B
$0.5 B
$0.0 B
$1.4 B
$1.2 B
$1.0 B
$0.8 B
$0.6 B
CY 2014E
$0.4 B
CY 2015E
$0.2 B
$0.0 B
($0.2 B)
($0.4 B)
($0.6 B)
($ USD in Millions)
Goldman Stanley 16
Jaguar DCF Analysis Free Cash Flow Projections
($ USD in Millions)
Projected Normalized
Unlevered Free Cash Flow Projections: Units: FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
Revenue: $M $ 1,176.9 $ 1,553.3 $ 1,998.0 $ 2,554.3 $ 3,174.8 $ 3,853.2 $ 4,552.3 $ 5,371.6 $ 1,662.1 $ 1,827.6 $ 1,919.0
Annual Revenue Growth Rate: % 34.9% 32.0% 28.6% 27.8% 24.3% 21.4% 18.1% 18.0% (69.1%) 10.0% 5.0%
Operating Income (EBIT): $M 380.8 754.7 1,003.9 1,312.6 1,657.1 2,044.0 2,424.9 2,870.7 739.4 825.0 964.2
Annual Operating Margin: % 32.4% 48.6% 50.2% 51.4% 52.2% 53.0% 53.3% 53.4% 44.5% 45.1% 45.0%
Less: Taxes, Excluding Effect of Interest: $M (68.5) (135.8) (180.7) (236.3) (298.3) (367.9) (436.5) (516.7) (133.1) (148.5) (173.6)
Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT): $M 312.3 618.8 823.2 1,076.4 1,358.8 1,676.1 1,988.4 2,353.9 606.3 676.5 790.6
Total Adjustments for Non-Cash Charges: $M 265.3 138.0 137.9 143.7 147.7 139.4 150.3 163.9 124.7 128.5 29.0
Total Changes in Operating Assets & Liabilities: $M (32.4) (57.4) (53.3) (67.1) (75.8) (84.7) (87.2) (103.0) 453.0 (21.5) (11.0)
% Change in Revenue: % (10.6%) (15.2%) (12.0%) (12.1%) (12.2%) (12.5%) (12.5%) (12.6%) (12.2%) (13.0%) (12.0%)
Less: Capital Expenditures: $M (14.1) (20.2) (28.0) (38.3) (50.8) (65.5) (81.9) (102.1) (33.2) (38.4) (38.4)
% Revenue: % 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 2.0%
Annual Unlevered Free Cash Flow: $M 531.1 679.3 879.8 1,114.6 1,379.9 1,665.3 1,969.5 2,312.7 1,150.8 745.1 770.3
Unlevered Free Cash Flow for Remaining Quarters: $M 464.7 679.3 879.8 1,114.6 1,379.9 1,665.3 1,969.5 2,312.7 1,150.8 745.1 770.3
Present Value of Free Cash Flow: $M 453.2 621.5 744.8 873.2 1,000.3 1,117.0 1,222.4 1,328.2 611.6 366.4 350.5
Normal Discount Period: Year Frac. 0.647 1.647 2.647 3.647 4.647 5.647 6.647 7.647 8.647 9.647 10.647
Mid-Year Discount Period: Year Frac. 0.323 1.147 2.147 3.147 4.147 5.147 6.147 7.147 8.147 9.147 10.147
Annual Free Cash Flow Growth Rate: % 79.5% 27.9% 29.5% 26.7% 23.8% 20.7% 18.3% 17.4% (50.2%) (35.2%) 3.4%
Annual EBITDA: $M 642.0 888.6 1,137.7 1,452.2 1,800.7 2,179.4 2,571.1 3,030.4 860.0 949.4 989.1
Annual EBITDA Growth Rate: % 50.6% 38.4% 28.0% 27.6% 24.0% 21.0% 18.0% 17.9% (71.6%) 10.4% 15.0%
Goldman Stanley 17
Jaguar DCF Analysis Implied Share Price Calculations
($ USD in Millions except for $ per Share Figures)
Terminal Value - Multiples Method: Terminal Value - Perpetuity Growth Method:
Baseline Terminal EBITDA Multiple: 12.0 x Baseline Terminal FCF Growth Rate: 1.0%
Baseline Terminal Value: $ 11,393.4 Baseline Terminal Value: $ 11,393.4
Implied Terminal FCF Growth Rate: 1.0% Implied Terminal EBITDA Multiple: 12.0 x
% of Implied EV from Terminal Value: 39.3% % of Implied EV from Terminal Value: 39.3%
Plus: Cash & Cash-Equivalents(1): $ 251.4 Plus: Cash & Cash-Equivalents(1): $ 251.4
Plus: Equity Investments(1): - Plus: Equity Investments(1): -
Plus: Other Non-Core Assets, Net(1): - Plus: Other Non-Core Assets, Net(1): -
(1) (1)
Plus: Net Operating Losses : 71.4 Plus: Net Operating Losses : 71.4
(1) (1)
Less: Total Debt : (1,198.6) Less: Total Debt : (1,198.6)
Less: Preferred Stock(1): - Less: Preferred Stock(1): -
Less: Noncontrolling Interests(1): (17.6) Less: Noncontrolling Interests(1): (17.6)
Less: Unfunded Pensions(1): - Less: Unfunded Pensions(1): -
Less: Capital Leases(1): - Less: Capital Leases(1): -
Less: Restructuring & Other Liab. (1): - Less: Restructuring & Other Liab. (1): -
Implied Equity Value: 12,834.6 Implied Equity Value: 12,834.6
Implied Share Price from DCF: $ 202.27 Implied Share Price from DCF: $ 202.27
Premium / (Discount) to Current(1): 56.3% Premium / (Discount) to Current(1): 56.3%
Exercise Exercise
Type: Number: Price: Dilution: Type: Number: Price: Dilution:
Options A: 0.604 $ 7.37 0.582 Options A: 0.604 $ 7.37 0.582
Options B: 0.948 4.00 0.929 Options B: 0.948 4.00 0.929
Options C: 1.590 26.09 1.385 Options C: 1.590 26.09 1.385
RSUs: 1.164 1.164 RSUs: 1.164 1.164
Total: 4.306 4.060 Total: 4.306 4.060
Sensitivity - Terminal FCF Growth Rate vs. Discount Rate and Implied Share Price from DCF Analysis:
Sensitivity - Terminal EBITDA Multiple vs. Discount Rate and Implied Share Price from DCF Analysis:
Goldman Stanley 19
Other Valuation Considerations
Results Implications and Examples
Goldman Stanley 20
Jaguars Corporate Structure Provides Advantages to Partners
Ireland
Italy
Jaguar Investments I
Jaguar Italy S.p.A. Jaguar, Inc. Jaguar Financing I, Ltd.
Limited
AxCell Biosciences
Prostagen, Inc.
Corporation
Goldman Stanley 21
Other Valuation Considerations
Jaguar is also trading at a discount to recent stock price highs:
$120.00
$100.00 3M
$80.00
2M
$60.00
$40.00
1M
$20.00
$0.00 0M
Given the stock price run-up over the past year, it may or may not be realistic to aim for the all-time high; however, the
valuation methodologies imply that a per-share price in that range is plausible
Goldman Stanley 22
Summary Profile of Equity Shareholders
Commentary:
Banks / Investment
Gross Common Share Count: 55,751,243(1) Banks: Other:
Individuals / 4% 2%
Major institutional investors represent Insiders:
approximately 40% of share ownership 4%
The companys margins and growth rates exceed those of its peer companies,
75th Percentile
#1 indicating that it should be valued in-line with the 75th percentile of the
Valuation is Justified
comparable company set
This price represents a 50%+ premium to Jaguars current share price; greater
#2 Goal: $200 / Share
upside might be possible with a highly complementary partner
Discounted Cash Flow Implied value is between $170 and $240 / share, based on a conservative
#3
(DCF) Analysis Discount Rate and Terminal Value and Managements financial projections
Premiums Paid Premiums Paid indicate a median 30-day average price premium of ~40%,
#4
Analysis implying a per-share value of $190 for Jaguar
Goldman Stanley 24
Potential Strategic Partners
Goldman Stanley 25
Potential Strategic Partners
Size, ability to pay, tax/corporate headquarters status, product/pipeline, and strategic fit should all be considered
US-headquartered partners are ideal since tax rates are highest there; several Canadian and Israeli companies could
also qualify since tax rates are also higher than those in the UK and Ireland
Both branded and generics companies should be considered, in light of recent M&A activity
Headquarters and Tax US-based with US corporate tax US-based with US corporate tax
Status: rates rates
Strategic Fit: Solid product and pipeline fit Solid product and pipeline fit
Goldman Stanley 26
Potential Strategic Partners
Goldman Stanley 27
Overview of Tier 1 Potential Partners
($ USD in Billions)
Potential Market Debt & Enterprise Leverage Strategic Ability to
Partner: Cap(1): NCI(1): Cash(1): Value(1): Ratio(1): Fit: Pay: Comments:
Primarily < $1B acquisitions
$36.3 $8.7 $0.3 $44.7 3.6 x in the past; rumors of
Actavis and Forest Labs
Primarily < $100 million
$84.6 $32.0 $19.8 $96.8 4.3 x acquisitions, except for $10
billion Onyx deal
Last deals over $1 billion
$81.7 $7.7 $7.1 $82.4 1.7 x took place 2-3 years ago;
smaller recent acquisitions
Last major deal was
$121.0 $10.1 $6.5 $124.6 1.4 x Pharmasset ($11 billion) two
years ago
Typically does only very
$281.0 $17.3 $29.4 $268.9 0.7 x small tuck-in deals
10 M
Share Price
$150.00
8M
$100.00
6M
4M
$50.00
2M
$0.00 0M
$120.00 12 M
$100.00 10 M
$80.00 8M
$0.00 0M
$40.00
25 M
agreements
Share Price
$30.00 20 M
15 M
$20.00
10 M
$10.00
5M
$0.00 0M
$80.00 45 M
$70.00
40 M
targeted at HIV/AIDS, hepatitis B and hepatitis C,
Shares Traded (in Millions)
35 M
$60.00
30 M
$50.00
25 M
$40.00
20 M respiratory conditions
$30.00
15 M
$20.00
10 M
$10.00 5M
$0.00 0M
$80.00 20 M
$60.00 15 M
$40.00 10 M
$20.00 5M
$0.00 0M
$60.00
diseases
25 M
$50.00
20 M
and poultry; antibiotics to treat respiratory and other diseases in
Share Price
$40.00
15 M
$30.00 cattle, swine, and poultry; anticoccidial agents for poultry; and
10 M
$20.00
chewable tablets that kill fleas and prevent diseases; products to
5M
$10.00
treat chronic manifestations of atopic dermatitis and congestive
$0.00 0M
heart failure in dogs, and chronic allergic dermatitis and kidney
diseases in cats
$50.00
40 M
$40.00
30 M
$30.00 ointments for acute and chronic otitis; anthelmintic products;
20 M
$20.00
chewable tablets to kill fleas and ticks in dogs; and products for
10 M
$10.00
protection against bites from fleas, ticks, mosquitoes, and
$0.00 0M
sandflies
$120.00
16 M
Generics Tobramycin, Cardizem CD (hypertension and
Shares Traded (in Millions)
14 M
$100.00
angina), Retin-A Micro (acne), and Latanoprost (glaucoma and
Share Price
12 M
$80.00 10 M
$60.00
8M ocular hypertension)
6M
$40.00
4M
$20.00
2M
$0.00 0M
$25.00
150 M
$20.00
$15.00
100 M commercialization agreement for
$10.00
50 M
antibody and small molecule
$5.00
targeted therapies
$0.00 0M
Goldman Stanley 38
Key Recommendations
We recommend engaging in targeted discussions with the Tier 1 candidates and assessing their receptiveness to M&A
discussions
At the same time, Goldman Stanley will reach out to Tier 2 candidates and introduce Jaguar as a potential partner
M&A process with Tier 1 candidates will take significantly longer due to the scale of the companies, so we recommend
conducting both processes simultaneously
Depending on responses from Tier 1 and Tier 2 candidates, Goldman Stanley and Jaguar may do additional research to
determine other potential partners and then approach them
Goldman Stanley 39
Process Recommendations
Specialized Targeted
Highly Targeted Broad M&A
Negotiations With Discussions +
Process Process Broad
One Party Broader Search
Marketing
RECOMMENDED
Goldman Stanley 40
Targeted Discussions Roles and Responsibilities
Contact partners and Assist in NDA Prepare for management Receive process updates
negotiate NDAs negotiations meetings
Phase II:
Provide input/direction if
Contact and
Schedule management Assist in compiling legal Contact potential required
Marketing
meetings diligence items partners (if appropriate)
Conduct management Assist in reviewing initial Formulate synergies Receive process updates
Phase III:
meetings and solicit bids bids and follow-up
Business Due
diligence lists for legal Attend management Provide input/direction if
Diligence, Synergy
Discuss synergies and items meetings required
Discussions, and
facilitate diligence
Initial Bids
Answer diligence
requests
Review bids from Review bids, negotiate Review bids and assist Review bids and approve
Phase IV:
potential partners terms of DA, and assist with diligence agreement, if appropriate
Final Negotiations,
with confirmatory
Confirmatory
Negotiate terms of DA diligence Discuss contracts
Diligence, and
with top partners
Signings
Goldman Stanley 41
Process Timeline
Depending on the responsiveness of Tier 1 and Tier 2 partners, the process may take between 6 and 9 months to
complete:
Phase I:
Phase I
Organization
Phase II:
Phase II
Contact and Marketing
Phase III:
Business Due Diligence, Synergy Phase III
Discussions, and Initial Bids
Phase IV:
Final Negotiations, Confirmatory Phase IV
Diligence, and Signings
Goldman Stanley 42
Appendix
Goldman Stanley 43
Xyrem and Erwinaze Projections Management
($ USD in Millions except for $ per Patient Figures)
Projected
Revenue Assumptions: Units: FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Xyrem Assumptions: FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Total Market Size (# Potential Patients) - Xyrem: # People 157,000 157,000 157,000 157,000 157,000 157,000 157,000 157,000 157,000 157,000
# Patients On Medication at End of Year: # People
Average # of Patients Throughout the Year: # People 12,560 15,700 18,840 21,980 25,120 28,260 31,400 34,540 37,680 37,680
Growth Rate in # of Patients: % 18.2% 25.0% 20.0% 16.7% 14.3% 12.5% 11.1% 10.0% 9.1%
% of Market on Xyrem Medication: % 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% 22.0% 24.0% 24.0%
Post-Toggle % of Market on Xyrem Medication: % 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% 22.0% 24.0% 24.0%
Annual Price Per Patient - Xyrem: $ as Stated $ 61,598 $ 68,990 $ 77,269 $ 86,541 $ 95,195 $ 104,715 $ 113,092 $ 122,139 $ 10,000 $ 10,000
Growth Rate in Price per Patient: % 15.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 10.0% 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 6.0% 6.0%
Post-Toggle Growth Rate in Price per Patient: % 15.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 10.0% 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 6.0% 6.0%
Xyrem - Revenue: $M $ 773.7 $ 1,083.1 $ 1,455.7 $ 1,902.2 $ 2,391.3 $ 2,959.2 $ 3,551.1 $ 4,218.7 $ 376.8 $ 376.8
Annual Growth Rate: % 35.9% 40.0% 34.4% 30.7% 25.7% 23.8% 20.0% 18.8% (91.1%)
Erwinaze Assumptions: FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Total Market Size (# Potential Patients) - Erwinaze: # People 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600
Average # of Patients on Erwinaze: # People 612 684 756 828 900 900 972 972 1,044 1,044
Growth Rate in # of Patients: % 13.3% 11.8% 10.5% 9.5% 8.7% 8.0% 7.4%
% of Market on Erwinaze Medication: % 17.0% 19.0% 21.0% 23.0% 25.0% 25.0% 27.0% 27.0% 29.0% 29.0%
Annual Price Per Patient - Erwinaze: $ as Stated $ 332,368 $ 342,339 $ 352,609 $ 363,187 $ 374,083 $ 385,305 $ 396,864 $ 408,770 $ 421,033 $ 433,664
Growth Rate in Price per Patient: % 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Erwinaze - Revenue: $M $ 203.4 $ 234.2 $ 266.6 $ 300.7 $ 336.7 $ 346.8 $ 385.8 $ 397.3 $ 439.6 $ 452.7
Annual Growth Rate: % 16.7% 15.1% 13.8% 12.8% 12.0% 3.0% 11.2% 3.0% 10.6% 3.0%
Goldman Stanley 44
Jaguar Income Statement Management Case
($ USD in Millions except for $ per Share Figures)
Projected
Income Statement: Units: FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Revenue:
Existing Products:
Xyrem Sales: $M $ 773.7 $ 1,083.1 $ 1,455.7 $ 1,902.2 $ 2,391.3 $ 2,959.2 $ 3,551.1 $ 4,218.7 $ 376.8 $ 376.8
Erwinaze Sales: $M 203.4 234.2 266.6 300.7 336.7 346.8 385.8 397.3 439.6 452.7
Defitelio Sales: $M 57.8 79.8 107.1 140.7 182.0 209.3 240.7 276.9 318.4 366.1
Other Sales and Royalties: $M 142.0 156.2 168.7 182.1 193.1 204.7 214.9 225.6 234.7 244.0
Risk-Adjusted Pipeline Drug Sales:
JZP-110 Sales: $M - - - 28.5 71.7 133.2 159.8 253.1 292.7 387.8
JZP-386 Sales: $M - - - - - - - - - -
Total Revenue: $M 1,176.9 1,553.3 1,998.0 2,554.3 3,174.8 3,853.2 4,552.3 5,371.6 1,662.1 1,827.6
Revenue Growth: % 34.9% 32.0% 28.6% 27.8% 24.3% 21.4% 18.1% 18.0% (69.1%) 10.0%
Total Cost of Product Sales: $M 111.8 147.6 189.9 242.8 301.7 366.2 432.6 510.5 158.0 173.7
Gross Profit: $M 1,065.0 1,405.6 1,808.1 2,311.5 2,873.1 3,487.0 4,119.6 4,861.1 1,504.2 1,653.9
Gross Margin: % 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 90.5%
Operating Expenses:
Selling, General, and Administrative: $M 376.6 466.0 614.8 802.8 1,015.9 1,252.3 1,499.6 1,790.5 559.9 621.4
Research and Development: $M 51.1 58.8 67.6 74.4 81.8 90.0 94.5 99.3 104.2 106.8
Acquired In-Process Research & Development: $M 127.0 - - - - - - - - -
Intangible Asset Amortization: $M 129.5 126.2 121.8 121.7 118.2 100.7 100.7 100.7 100.7 100.7
Total Operating Expenses: $M 684.2 651.0 804.2 998.9 1,216.0 1,443.0 1,694.8 1,990.5 764.7 828.9
Operating Income (EBIT): $M 380.8 754.7 1,003.9 1,312.6 1,657.1 2,044.0 2,424.9 2,870.7 739.4 825.0
Operating (EBIT) Margin: % 32.4% 48.6% 50.2% 51.4% 52.2% 53.0% 53.3% 53.4% 44.5% 45.1%
Income From Continuing Operations (Before Taxes): $M 332.2 716.6 965.8 1,294.5 1,639.0 2,043.8 2,424.9 2,870.7 739.4 825.0
Tax Provision / (Benefit): $M 59.8 129.0 173.8 233.0 295.0 367.9 436.5 516.7 133.1 148.5
Income From Continuing Operations: $M 272.4 587.6 792.0 1,061.5 1,344.0 1,675.9 1,988.4 2,353.9 606.3 676.5
Net Income: $M $ 272.4 $ 587.6 $ 792.0 $ 1,061.5 $ 1,344.0 $ 1,675.9 $ 1,988.4 $ 2,353.9 $ 606.3 $ 676.5
Effective Tax Rate: % 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0%
Diluted Shares Outstanding: $M 64.4 67.5 70.6 73.9 77.4 81.0 84.8 88.8 92.9 97.2
Diluted Earnings Per Share (EPS): $ as Stated $ 4.23 $ 8.71 $ 11.21 $ 14.36 $ 17.37 $ 20.69 $ 23.45 $ 26.52 $ 6.53 $ 6.96
EBITDA: $M $ 642.0 $ 888.6 $ 1,137.7 $ 1,452.2 $ 1,800.7 $ 2,179.4 $ 2,571.1 $ 3,030.4 $ 860.0 $ 949.4
EBITDA Margin: % 54.6% 57.2% 56.9% 56.9% 56.7% 56.6% 56.5% 56.4% 51.7% 52.0%
($ USD in Millions)
Maximum $ 31,143 $ 29,697 $ 1,779 $ 2,171 $ 2,569 $ 697 $ 1,074 $ 1,306 $ 330 $ 472 $ 1,123 111.0% 136.6% 39.2% 50.1% 50.8%
75th Percentile 12,396 11,809 1,138 1,452 1,739 363 655 823 163 380 443 30.6% 31.1% 31.7% 45.4% 48.9%
Median $ 7,988 $ 8,769 $ 1,086 $ 1,206 $ 1,387 $ 195 $ 259 $ 295 $ 22 $ 26 $ 119 21.0% 13.7% 17.9% 21.5% 20.2%
25th Percentile 5,834 5,381 856 715 1,058 (11) (5) 165 (88) (71) 77 14.4% (62.3%) (3.4%) (1.6%) 16.7%
Minimum 1,699 1,533 572 574 823 (331) (478) 65 (369) (538) 47 6.1% (181.3%) (33.0%) (83.3%) 7.2%
Jaguar $ 8,196 $ 9,089 $ 923 $ 1,177 $ 1,553 $ 423 $ 642 $ 889 $ 80 $ 272 $ 588 32.0% 38.4% 45.8% 54.6% 57.2%
Maximum $ 31,143 $ 29,697 16.7 x 24.5 x 11.6 x 42.6 x 27.7 x 85.8 x 94.4 x 66.0 x 27.7 x
75th Percentile 12,396 11,809 14.7 x 13.5 x 10.6 x 34.0 x 23.3 x 22.2 x 85.6 x 44.1 x 20.4 x
Median $ 7,988 $ 8,769 8.5 x 5.8 x 4.8 x 31.0 x 21.8 x 15.2 x 76.9 x 22.1 x 17.0 x
25th Percentile 5,834 5,381 4.8 x 4.4 x 3.7 x 18.0 x 14.0 x 9.4 x 50.1 x 18.3 x 15.4 x
Minimum 1,699 1,533 2.2 x 2.0 x 1.9 x 10.6 x 7.5 x 6.8 x 23.2 x 14.5 x 13.2 x
Jaguar $ 8,196 $ 9,089 9.8 x 7.7 x 5.9 x 21.5 x 14.2 x 10.2 x NM 30.1 x 13.9 x
Jaguar 1.05
WACC = Cost of Equity * % Equity + Cost of Debt * % Debt * (1 - Tax Rate) + Cost of Preferred Stock * % Preferred Stock