ENV 107:

Introduction to Environmental Science

Lectures 7&8
The Human Population and the Environment

Based on Chapter 4 of Main textbook (Botkin and Keller)

Instructor: Raisa Bashar (RBr)

1
 History of Population:
The Malthusian Theory
• Almost 200 years ago, the English economist Thomas
Malthus eloquently stated the human population problem

• He foresaw that the pressure of rapid human population

growth will lead to problems

• His theory is based on population dynamics and its

relationship with the availability of resources

• Malthus reasoned that it would be impossible to maintain

a rapidly multiplying human population on a finite resource
base
• His projections of the ultimate fate of humankind were dire, as
dismal a picture as that painted by today’s most extreme
pessimists

• Malthus proposed the principle that human populations grow

exponentially (i.e., doubling with each cycle) while food
production grows at an arithmetic rate (i.e. by the repeated
addition of a uniform increment in each uniform interval of
time)

• Thus, while food output was likely to increase in a series of

twenty-five year intervals in the arithmetic progression 1, 2, 3,
4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and so on, population was capable of increasing
in the geometric progression 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256,
and so forth
• This scenario of arithmetic food growth with simultaneous
geometric human population growth predicted a future when
humans would have no resources to survive on. To avoid such
a catastrophe, Malthus urged controls on population growth

• Malthus said that the development of mankind was severely

limited by the pressure that population growth exerted on the
availability of food

• Malthus’s statements are quite straightforward

• From the perspective of modern science, they simply point out

that in a finite world nothing can grow or expand forever, not
even the population of the smartest species ever to live on
Earth
• Critics of Malthus continue to point out that his predictions
have yet to come true, that whenever things have looked bleak,
technology has provided a way out, allowing us to live at
greater densities

• Our technologies, they insist, will continue to save us from a

Malthusian fate, so we needn’t worry about human population
growth. Supporters of Malthus respond by reminding them of
the limits of a finite world

• Ultimately, in a finite world, Malthus must be correct about the

final outcome of unchecked growth

• He may have been wrong about the timing

– Did not anticipate the capability of technological changes
to delay the inevitable
• Some people believe Earth can support many more people
than it does now

• But in the long run there must be an upper limit

• The basic issue that confronts us is this:

- How can we achieve a constant world population, or

- At least halt the increase in population, in a way most
beneficial to most people?
 Some Key Terms & Concepts
• Population- a group of individuals of the same species living in the
same area or interbreeding and sharing genetic information

• Population dynamics- study of population changes over time and

factors which affect the changes

• Demography- statistical study of human populations

• Five key properties of any population-

– Abundance (size of a population)
– Birth rate
– Death rate
– Growth rate (difference between birth and death rates)
– Age structure
• Important facts about the five key properties-
– changes in abundance depends on growth rate
– growth rate = difference between birth rate and death rate
– rates expressed as number per 1,000, not percentage

• Crude birth rate: number of births per 1,000 individuals per

year
– called “crude” because population age structure is not taken
into account

• Crude death rate

• Crude growth rate

 Numbers can explain a lot…

• 1 billion in 1804
• 2 billion in 1927 (123 years later)
• 3 billion in 1960 (33 years later)
• 4 billion in 1974 (14 years later)
• 5 billion in 1987 (13 years later)
• 6 billion in 1999 (12 years later)
 Population Distribution
• Pattern of where people live

• Uneven population distribution in the world

• Sparsely populated places

– Generally difficult places to live
– Usually places with hostile environments e.g. Antarctica

• Densely populated places

– Habitable environments e.g. Europe.
 Population Density
• Population density- measurement of the number of people in an
area
– It is an average number
– Calculated by dividing the number of people by area
– Usually shown as the number of people per square kilometer

• Factors of high density

– Low and flat large land area
– Access to water
– Resources
– Temperate climate- suitable to grow crops
– Political stability
– Good economic condition
– Good facilities- hospitals, schools etc.
• Factors of low density
– High mountainous land, island etc
– Dry, desert and arid climate
– Few resources
– Lack of political and social stability
– Limited economic opportunities
– Lack of services

• Important- one or a few factors don’t determine density. A

complex combination of many factors influence density
significantly
 Population Density

World’s population density (Source: Columbia University's Center for International Earth Science Information Network)
 Calculating Change in Population
• Change in population
= (Births + Immigration) - (Deaths + Emigration)

• Initial population = 50000

• Birth = 6000
• Immigration = 4000
• Emigration = 1000
• Death = 3000
• New Population = ?
 Projecting Future Population Growth
• Exponential growth- growth that increases at a consistent rate
- Annual growth rate is a constant percentage of the population
- A constant rate of growth applied to a continuously growing base
over a period of time
- Also called geometric growth

• Doubling time- number of years it takes for a population to double,

assuming a constant rate of natural increase
- US has a growth rate of 1% and a doubling time of 70 years
- Sweden has a growth rate of 0.2% and a doubling time of 350 years
- China, the most populated country in the world has a growth rate of
0.6% and a doubling time of 117 years
- Currently, the world has a growth rate of 1.1% and hence, a
doubling time of 64 years
• Logistic growth curve- a smooth S-shaped curve

• Human population growth follows logistic growth curve

• Similar to Exponential, it assumes a constant environment and a

homogeneous population—one in which all individuals are identical
to each other

• A logistic population increases exponentially only temporarily - S-

shaped curve rises steeply upward during this time

• After that, the rate of growth gradually declines – slope curves

outward horizontally

• Point at which the curve changes is called inflection point – can’t

estimate final size until a population reaches this point
• Population slowly increases until reaching an upper limit
called the logistic carrying capacity

• Exponential growth is impossible

• Logistic growth curve- an improvement over exponential, but

too involves unrealistic assumptions i.e. constant carrying
capacity

• But logistic curve is used for most long-term forecasts of

human population size
 Age Structure
• A more comprehensive approach to forecast human population growth
compared to exponential and logistic because they ignore all
characteristics of the environment

• Divides population among different age groups because environmental

factors have different effects on different age groups

• Age structure- a way to express how a population is divided among

ages
– Proportion of the population of each age group

• Age structure of a population

– Affects current and future growth rates (birth and death rates also)
– Has an impact on the environment
– Has implications for current and future social and economic
conditions
• Age structure varies considerably by nation and provides
insight into a population’s history, its current status and its
likely future

• Age structures can take many shapes, but 4 general types are
most important:
- Pyramid
- Column
- Inverted pyramid
- Column with a bulge
Pyramid

Fig: Age structure of Kenya

• Pyramid shape occurs when a population has
– many young people
– a high death rate at each age—and therefore a high birth
rate, characteristic of a rapidly growing population
– relatively short average lifetime

• Developing countries – Pyramid

– Indicates population will grow very rapidly in future when
the young reach marriage and reproductive ages
– Suggests it will require more jobs in the future
– Many other social implications i.e. education, healthcare
etc.
 Column

Fig: Age structure of the United States

• Column shape occurs when
– Birth rate and death rate are low
– A high percentage of the population is elderly

• United States – more like a column

– Slow population growth
– Presence of a bulge: refers to the post- World War II baby
boom - great increase in births from 1946 through 1964
Inverted Pyramid

Fig: Age structure of Japan

• An inverted pyramid shape occurs if
– A population has more older than younger people
• Japan
– Declining population growth
Column with a Bulge

Fig: Age structure of China (Source: CIA World Factbook)

• A bulge shape occurs in a column if
– Some event in the past caused a high birth rate or death rate
for some age group but not others

• China – column with a bulge

– 5 births per woman in the early 1970s
– Birthrate drastically reduced after the one-child policy
– Bulge due to the high birth rate before the one-child policy
 Demographic Transition
• Pattern of change in birth and death rates

• Transition happens in 4 stages

• Leads to a decline in population growth

• Occurred during the industrial and economic development of

Western nations

• Demographers developed this hypothesis after examining birth

and death rates of western European countries which became
industrialized during the 19th century
Fig: Demographic transition (Source: Southmoore HS)
Stage 1: Pre-industrial stage:
• Living conditions are harsh and the birth rate is high (people have
more children to replace children who die from infectious
diseases, malnutrition etc.)
• Death rate is also high
• Thus there is little population growth

Stage 2: Transitional stage:

• When industrialization begins, food production rises and health
improves
• Death rates drop
• But birth rates remain high
• So the population grows rapidly
Stage 3: Industrial stage:
• Industrialization is widespread
• Birth rate drops and approaches death rate
• This is because:
– people in cities realize children are expensive to raise
– Having too many children also hinders them from taking
advantage of job opportunities
– education and standard of living increase
• Population growth continues, but at a slower and fluctuating rate,
depending on economic conditions

Stage 4: Post-industrial stage:

• Birth rate declines even further to equal the death rate
• Thus zero population growth is reached
• Subsequently, the birth rate falls below the death rate, and the total
population size slowly decreases
 Carrying Capacity of Earth:
Humans
• Maximum number of individuals that an area's resources can
sustain indefinitely without significantly depleting or degrading
the ability of those resources to sustain future populations

• Whether a region is overpopulated is determined not by

population density or land area, but carrying capacity

• Carrying capacity of an area can be altered by technology,

environmental degradation etc.
 Constraints
• A population that exceeds the carrying capacity will change the
environment in a way that future population size will be decreased

• No population can sustain an exponential growth rate indefinitely

• Eventually it will run out of food and space; That is, eventually
human population will be limited by some factor or a combination
of factors called constraints or limiting factors
 Constraints/Limiting Factors
• Limiting factors include:
– Disruption in the distribution of food within a country due to
political events
– Local loss of current crops
– Abrupt change in weather (e.g. drought)
– Major world catastrophes i.e. outbreak of a new disease
– Energy shortages affecting food production and distribution
– Desertification
– Wide dispersal of certain pollutants into waters and fisheries
– Disruption in the supplies of nonrenewable resources
– Soil erosion
– A decline in groundwater supplies
– Climatic changes i.e. global warming
– High frequency of disasters i.e. acid rain
• Classification of factors:
– Short-term factors: Effect apparent with a year e.g. loss of
current crops, drought, sudden wars etc
– Intermediate-term factors: Apparent in 1-10 years e.g.
climate changes, pollution, energy shortages that affect
food production
– Long-term factors: May take decades to affect the
environment e.g. soil erosion, global warming, acid rain
etc.

• These factors provide environmental resistance to unlimited

growth in biologic populations
 Impacts of Human Overpopulation
• Human overpopulation: root cause of many problems
• Global Fresh Water crisis
– fresh water consumed 10 times faster than it is being
replenished in some regions
• Degradation of their quality and length of life in fastest
growing countries
• Depletion of natural resources
– i.e. fossil fuels, fresh water, arable land, coral reefs and
frontier forests
• Harmful agricultural practices
• Increased habitat and biodiversity loss
• Increased emergence of new epidemics and pandemics