Why Do Interest Rates Change?

Chapter 4
Why Do Interest Rates Change?

Determinants of asset demand
• Demand for an assets is influenced by the
following factors:
1. Wealth
• When our wealth increases, we have more
resources available with which we can
purchase assets,
• Thus holding everything constant, an increase
in wealth raises the quantity demand of an
asset
2. Expected return =∑RiPi
• When expected return on asset rises relative to
expected returns on alternative assets, holding
everything else constant, demand for that asset will
also rise
3. Risk = Standard deviation of returns
• Investors are usually risk averse and want to reduce the
uncertainty with the returns on an asset
• Hence, holding everything constant, if an asset’s risk
rises relative to that of alternative assets, its quantity
demanded will fall
4. Liquidity
• Liquidity means how quickly an asset can be
converted into cash at low cost
• The more liquid an asset is to alternative
assets, holding everything else unchanged,
the more desirable it is, and the greater will
be the quantity demand.
Determinants of Asset Demand (3)
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Prentice Hall. All rights 4-5
reserved.
Supply and demand in the bond
market
• Supply of and demand for bonds determine
interest rates
• Remember the following relationships:
• Interest rates and bond prices have inverse
relationships
• When interest rates rise, quantity demanded
of bonds rises and quantity supplied falls
Derivation of Demand Curve
F  P 
iR  e
P
Point A: if the bond was selling for $950.
P  $950
$1000  $950 
i  .053  5.3%
$950
Bd  100
Point B: if the bond was selling for $900.

P  $900
$1000  $900 
i  .111  11.1%
$900
Bd  200
reserved.
Derivation of Demand Curve
To continue …
• Point C: P = $850 i = 17.6% Bd = 300
• Point D: P = $800 i = 25.0% Bd = 400
• Point E: P = $750 i = 33.0% Bd = 500
• Demand Curve is Bd in Figure 1 which
connects points A, B, C, D, E.
– Has usual downward slope
reserved.
Derivation of Supply Curve
• Point F: P = $750 i = 33.0% Bs = 100
• Point G: P = $800 i = 25.0% Bs = 200
• Point C: P = $850 i = 17.6% Bs = 300
• Point H: P = $900 i = 11.1% Bs = 400
• Point I: P = $950 i = 5.3% Bs = 500
• Supply Curve is Bs that connects points F, G, C,
H, I, and has upward slope
Market Conditions
Market equilibrium occurs when the amount that people are
willing to buy (demand) equals the amount that people are
willing to sell (supply) at a given price
Excess supply occurs when the amount that people are willing to
sell (supply) is greater than the amount people are willing to buy
(demand) at a given price
Excess demand occurs when the amount that people are willing
to buy (demand) is greater than the amount that people are
willing to sell (supply) at a given price
Loanable Funds Framework
• If we drop the prices data from the previous
graph, we can draw demand and supply
curves for bonds that look like demand and
supply curves for commodities
• Note that demand for bond is the same thing
as supply of loanable funds
• And supply of bonds is the same thing as
demand for loanable funds
Factors
That Shift
Demand Curve
Summary of Shifts
in the Demand for Bonds
1. Wealth: in a business cycle expansion with growing

wealth, the demand for bonds rises, conversely, in a
recession, when income and wealth are falling, the
demand for bonds falls
2. Expected returns: higher expected interest rates in
the future decrease the demand for long-term
bonds, conversely, lower expected interest rates in
the future increase the demand for long-term
bonds

reserved.
Summary of Shifts
in the Demand for Bonds (2)
3. Risk: an increase in the riskiness of bonds causes
the demand for bonds to fall, conversely, an
increase in the riskiness of alternative assets (like
stocks) causes the demand for bonds
to rise
4. Liquidity: increased liquidity of the bond market
results in an increased demand for bonds,
conversely, increased liquidity of alternative asset
markets (like the stock market) lowers the demand
for bonds
reserved.
Factors That Shift Supply Curve
We now turn to the
supply curve.
We summarize the
effects in this table:
Summary of Shifts
in the Supply of Bonds
1. Expected Profitability of Investment Opportunities: in a
business cycle expansion, the supply of bonds increases,
conversely, in a recession, when there are far fewer
expected profitable investment opportunities, the supply of
bonds falls
2. Expected Inflation: an increase in expected inflation causes
the supply of bonds to increase
3. Government Activities: higher government deficits increase
the supply of bonds, conversely, government surpluses
decrease the supply of bonds

reserved.
Changes in πe: The Fisher Effect
• If πe 
1. Relative Re ,
Bd shifts
in to left
2. Bs , Bs shifts
out to right
3. P , i 

reserved.
Business Cycle Expansion
1. Wealth , Bd , Bd
shifts out to right
2. Investment , Bs ,
Bs shifts right
3. If Bs shifts
more than Bd
then P , i 

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Chapter 4

Why Do Interest Rates Change?

Copyright © 2009 Pearson

Point B: if the bond was selling for $900.

1. Wealth: in a business cycle expansion with growing

Copyright © 2009 Pearson

Copyright © 2009 Pearson

Copyright © 2009 Pearson

Copyright © 2009 Pearson

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