Currency Derivatives: South-Western/Thomson Learning © 2003
Currency Derivatives: South-Western/Thomson Learning © 2003
5
Currency Derivatives
B5 - 2
Forward Market
B5 - 3
Forward Market
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Forward Market
• annualized forward premium/discount
= forward rate – spot rate 360
spot rate n
where n is the number of days to maturity
• Example: Suppose $ spot rate = Tk.70,
90-day $ forward rate = Tk.71.
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Currency Futures Market
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Currency Futures Market
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Currency Futures Market
B5 - 13
Currency Futures Market
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Currency Futures Market
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Currency Options Market
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Currency Call Options
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Currency Put Options
+Tk.2 +Tk.2
Future Spot
Rate
+Tk.1 +Tk.1
0 0
Tk.68 Tk.70 Tk.72 Tk.68 Tk.70 Tk.72
-Tk.1 -Tk.1
Future Spot
Rate
- Tk.2 -Tk.2
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Contingency Graphs for Currency Put Options
For Buyer of $ Put Option For Seller of $ Put Option
Future Spot
Rate
+Tk.1 +Tk.1
0 0
Tk.68 Tk.70 Tk.72 Tk.68 Tk.70 Tk.72
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European Currency Options
Currency Futures
Currency Options
m
n
E CFj , t E ER j , t
j 1
Value =
t =1 1 k t
E (CFj,t ) = expected cash flows in currency j to be received
by the U.S. parent at the end of period t
E (ERj,t ) = expected exchange rate at which currency j can
be converted to dollars at the end of period t
k = weighted average cost of capital of the parent
B5 - 31
Asian Currency Crisis and
Collapse of Thai Baht
• Thailand experienced one of the highest growth rates in
1980s and 1990s.
• Inflation rate was only 5% (against 3.5% of USA)
• Export growth was 16% from 1990 to 1996
• Assuming that the growth will continue there was
investment boom in commercial and residential building
• To build infrastructure, factories, import from USA and
developed countries in the form of capital equipment and
machineries increased
• Since mid 1980s Thailand successfully maintained fixed
rate exchange system with $1=Bt25
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Asian Currency Crisis and
Collapse of Thai Baht (Contd..)
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Asian Currency Crisis and
Collapse of Thai Bath (Contd..)
• Thai stock market started to decline by 45% as several
property companies might be forced to bankruptcy
• It was anticipated that Thailand will fail to maintain
fixed rate
• Speculative attacks typically involved traders selling
baht short to profit a future decline in the value of baht
against the dollar. For example, a trader might borrow
Bt 100 from a bank for 6 month, exchange that to $4
($1=Bt25), and if exchange rates subsequently
declines to $1=Bt50, sell the $ to Bt200, return back
the money to bank after 6 month, and make a
handsome gain.
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Asian Currency Crisis and
Collapse of Thai Bath (Contd..)
• In may 1997, government expended $5 billion foreign
exchange reserves to buy baht. Foreign exchange
reserve went down to $33 billion. George Sorrows had
bought the reserve by forward contract, that left only
$1.14 billion left to central bank. IMF extended conditional
loan. IMF and other countries provided $16 billion loan.
• Interest rate increased from 10% to 12.5% to make baht
holding attractive.
• July 2, 1997 bowed to the inevitable of floatation the Thai
Baht. Baht depreciated to $1=Bt55 by January 1998.
• As overseas investment called back Thai Bank needed
double the amount of original loan. Bankruptcy was all
around.
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Chapter Review
• Forward Market
¤ How MNCs Use Forward Contracts
¤ Non-Deliverable Forward Contracts
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Chapter Review
• Currency Futures Market
¤ Contract Specifications
¤ Comparison of Currency Futures and
Forward Contracts
¤ Pricing Currency Futures
¤ Credit Risk of Currency Futures Contracts
¤ Speculation with Currency Futures
¤ How Firms Use Currency Futures
¤ Closing Out A Futures Position
¤ Transaction Costs of Currency Futures
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Chapter Review
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Chapter Review
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Chapter Review
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