Urban Growth and Land-Use Change: An

overview for air quality models

Manuel Suárez
Instituto de Geografía-UNAM
 Contents
• Overview (Urban growth in AQ models)
• Why cities grow the way they do (Location
theory)
• Growth implications on land use change and
emissions
• Building urban growth scenarios
• Examples
• Summary
 Population and economic growth

Location
Regional-urban
srtucture
Urban Growth
/Densification

Land use change Transportation Infrastructure Urban Structure

Traffic VKT Road Land use

Distribution
Mode Tech. s nets Distribution

Emissions
Accesibility
Damage to Energy efficiency Exposure
ecosystems
Health

Cost
• Urban growth and urban structure determine:
– Transportation emissions
• VKT
• Speed
– Area emissions
• City-wide population and employment densities (by
type of economic activity
– Point emissions (Industrial location/permitted
land use)
 Urban location theory
(1) (3)

(4)
(2)
 City size theory

$ A´
Land Rent
´

A´

M B B´
Center
Distance
Differential Urbanization (Regional)
Possible impacts of types of urban growth
on emissions
Population Employment Type Effect on
emissions

New urban New / Existing

Sprawl Exponential
areas urban areas

Existing urban Densification

Existing urban
areas (zoned (Urban
areas (zoned Linear
for structure
for housing)
employment) mantained)

Existing urban Densification

Existing urban Logarithmic
areas (Mixed (More efficient
areas (Mixed (maybe linear
use) urban
use) with slope < 1)
structure)
Urbanization 1970
Urbanization 1970-1980
Urbanization 1980-1990
Urbanization 1990-2000

Year Urban area % Change

1970 71,626
1980 116,893 63.20%
1990 221,310 89.33%
2000 507,803 129.45%
Peri-urban spaces 2000
Area Urbana Área Locs < 2500
2000
Crecimiento urbano
1990-2000

C.E. = 2d N S Regresi—n de densidad de vivienda rural en funci—n de PEA primaria y terciaria

Residuals :
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
Superficie estimada: -17,15 -6,73 -1,88 4,06 34,01

 n Coefficients:

s= (Intercept)
Estimate Std
14,5
. Error
3,13
t value
4,63
Pr(>|t|)
9,50E-006 ***
(2.149 2d) 2 log(PEAPRIM + 1) -1,77 0,74 -2,38 0,02 *
PEATER 0,05 0,01 8,14 5,17E-013 ***

Residual standard error: 10.18 on 116 degrees of freedom

Multiple R-Squared: 0.3832,Adjusted R-squared: 0.3726
F-statistic: 36.03 on 2 and 116 DF, p-value: 6.738e-13


Regional Land Use
 Regional Land Use Change
(Remote sensing)
Land-use change (Official urbanization)

Previous Area (Ha) %

Land use
Agriculture 56,993 81.4
Pasture 4,510 6.5
Forest 1,535 2.1
Others 6,935 10.0
TOTAL 69,973 100

Mean urban population density: 80 p/Ha

Mean urbanization density 1990-2000 (official): 25 p/Ha
Mean urbanization density 1990-2000 (periurban): 8.2 p/Ha
Scenario based urban growth forecast -
3 step model

Calibrated
model of Density Growth
urbanization scenarios assignment
probabilities

Prediction of Trend
Population
observed Sensitivity
forecasts
urbanization analysis

Replace
variable values
with forcasted Estimated inhabited rural area
values
 Data sources
• Population census data tract (AGEB) level
• Economic census data tract (AGEB) level
• Land use (remote sensing)
• Main transportation infrastructure (Roads)
• Population forecasts
• Employment forecasts (Shift-share analysis)
– Data should be available for at least two time
periods
 Table 1: Variable s in the calibrate d model
Urbanization probabilities No. Alias Name Source
Informaci—n topogr‡fica Vectorial escala
X1 [DISTRAKM] Distance to highways (Km)
1:1000,000, (INEGI, 2000a) *
Cat‡logo de Integraci—n territorial, (INEGI,
X2 [DISTLOC] Distance to the closest urban localit y (m)
2000b)*
Population of the closest locali ty Censo General de Poblaci—ny Vivienda
X3 [LOCSIZE]
(thousands) (INEGI, 1990)
X4 [SLOPE] Terrain slope (%) Geography Institute, UNAM*
Number of manufacturing jobs in a 6 km
X5 [MANUFAC] Censo Econ—mico (INEGI, 1989)*
radius (thousands of jobs)
Number of service jobs in a 6 km radius
X6 [SERVS] Censo Econ—mico (INEGI, 1989)*
(thousands of jobs)
M edian income of the closest existing Censo General de poblaci—n y Vivienda
X7 [INCOM E]
tract (INEGI, 1990a)
Proportion of agricultural municipal
X8 IRRIG Censo Agr’cola ganadero*
irrigated terrain
* Value calculated with GIS with inputted data from the source

Table 2: Calibrated Binomial Logit model of

urbanization probabilities in MCMA 1990-2000
Variable B Std. Error
DISTRAKM -0.005 0.031
INCOME 0.841* 0.091
LOCSIZE 0.003* 0
IRRIG 1.12* 0.008
MANUFAC 0.086* 0.035
SERVS -0.389* 0.008
SLOPE -0.069* 0
DISTLOC -0.001* 0.197
CONSTANT -1.141*
Model Fit
-2 Log likelihood = 6748.227
Cox & Snell R Square = 0.213
Nagelkerke R Square = 0.434
N = 15670
% of correctly classified cases: 0 = 83%; 1 = 80%;
Total = 83%
(Cut value= 0.15)

* Sig. at 0.001 or better

Urbanization probabilities Urban expansion scenarios
Dinámicas regionales
de expansión urbana
Urban expansion probabilities in Mexico
City’s Regional Belt 2020
Urban ring structures
Employment and population density by urban ring
Puebla-Tlaxcala urban ring configuration
Puebla-Tlaxcala-Apizaco
Population and employment density profile
by urban ring
 Logit model: urban growth probability
Importance of variables in expansion probabilities
Puebla Tlaxcala Apizaco
Distance to transportation 0.408 0.007 0.749
Distance to closest urban area 0.115 0.603 0.004
Population size of closest urban area 1.012 0.859 0.856
Local income 1.746 1519.876 23.844
Agricultural land (dummy) 1.37 1.569 1.57E+010
Non irrigated (dummy) 1.244 23.136 9.055
Slope 0.919 0.598 1.121
Number of jobs 1.01 1.256 0.001
Number of service jobs 0.66 21.63 4.33E+012
Manufacturing : Services Ratio 0.997 1.053 1.163
Constant 1.016 0 0

u
e
Yˆi  u
u= A  B X  B X   Bn X n
1 e 1 1 2 2
 Urbanization density scenarios

140,000
4,000,000

3,500,000 120,000

3,000,000 100,000

2,500,000 80,000
2,000,000 Área Urbana
Población 60,000
Área Urbana
1,500,000
40,000
1,000,000
20,000
500,000
0
0
p1990 p2000 p2030
p1990 p2000 p2030
 Growth assignment
Urbanization in Puebla-Tlaxcala 2030,
[preliminary] optimistic scenario (40
p/Ha)
 Summary
• Urban growth models can help:
– Forecast emissions
• Area emissions through estimated/planned population
density data
• Transportation emissions with Mobile 6 or other
(better) transportation models (i.e. 4 step
transportation model
– Guide planning policies through sensitivity
analyses of AQ models
Thanks for your attention!
