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    Election Analysis

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    Aparna Menon
    The document discusses psephology, which is the scientific study of elections and voting behavior. Psephology analyzes elections, voting patterns, opinion polls, and forecasting of election results. It became a specialized field using regular opinion polls, post-election surveys, census data, and data analysis tools. The document also provides information on the key aspects of conducting exit polls like large sample size, diversity of subjects, use of technology, and accurate prediction of seats won by parties.

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    Election Analysis

    Uploaded by

    Aparna Menon
    121 views20 pages
    The document discusses psephology, which is the scientific study of elections and voting behavior. Psephology analyzes elections, voting patterns, opinion polls, and forecasting of election results. It became a specialized field using regular opinion polls, post-election surveys, census data, and data analysis tools. The document also provides information on the key aspects of conducting exit polls like large sample size, diversity of subjects, use of technology, and accurate prediction of seats won by parties.

    Original Description:

    This was a presentation on the election analysis of India

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    The document discusses psephology, which is the scientific study of elections and voting behavior. Psephology analyzes elections, voting patterns, opinion polls, and forecasting of election results. It became a specialized field using regular opinion polls, post-election surveys, census data, and data analysis tools. The document also provides information on the key aspects of conducting exit polls like large sample size, diversity of subjects, use of technology, and accurate prediction of seats won by parties.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    121 views20 pages

    Election Analysis

    Uploaded by

    Aparna Menon
    The document discusses psephology, which is the scientific study of elections and voting behavior. Psephology analyzes elections, voting patterns, opinion polls, and forecasting of election results. It became a specialized field using regular opinion polls, post-election surveys, census data, and data analysis tools. The document also provides information on the key aspects of conducting exit polls like large sample size, diversity of subjects, use of technology, and accurate prediction of seats won by parties.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    of 20

    FY- A

    Aishwarya Athiban
    Aparna Menon
    Diteshri Guha
    Gaddamanugu Venkata Anvitha
    Girish Sharma
    Harasees Kaur
     The term Psephology has Greek origins and is made from
    the combination of two words, psephos meaning pebble
    and logy denoting a field of study. Since psephos were used by
    the Greeks as ballots, psephology thus becomes the scientific
    study of elections and voting behaviour.
     Psephology is the study of elections, voting patterns, and
    electoral behaviour, and the forecasting of election results.
    This became a specialist field of political sociology with the
    spread of regular opinion polls on voting intentions, major
    post-election interview surveys, access to population census
    statistics for small areas, and sophisticated data analysis and
    modelling packages
    1. Nomination of filling of affidavits
    2. Model code of conduct
    3. Appointing observers and micro observers
    by ECI
    4. Expenditure monitoring
    5. Polling
    6. Counting
    7. Declaration of results
    Accounting
    teams
    Media
    certification
    Video
    and
    surveillance
    monitoring
    committee

    Flying
    Video
    squad viewing
    teams The
    teams

    Call centre
    and Assistant
    complaint expenditure
    monitoring observers
    teams

    Static Expenditure
    surveillance monitoring
    team cell
    The polls are conducted after a voter has cast his or her vote at the
    polling station.
    The polls predict the final result on the basis of the information collected
    from various voters.

    Opinion polls and Exit polls


    Opinion Polls Exit Polls

    They are conducted before the They are conducted after the
    elections. elections.
    They forecast the result of They predict the final result
    voting based on an assesment based on the votes already
    of public opinion. cast.
    They are less accurate. They are more accurate.
    How accurate are exit polls?
    In India, exit polls often have turned out to be unreliable. In previous
    instances, the exit polls have made incorrect predictions, especially in
    2004, when they predicted NDA victory and in 2009, when they
    wrongly judged UPA's seat share. The 2014 exit polls, however,
    rightly predicted a BJP win.
    How are the exit polls calculated?
    The firms conducting the exit polls usually ask voters who they voted
    for and on the basis of that they make their final result prediction.
    The prediction is solely based on the fact that the voters have given
    correct answers.
    Some of the key pillars of a sound exit poll are:
     Large sample size
     Diversity in subjects
     Usage of technology to gather data
     Accurate prediction of seats each party will win

    What Is The Swing Model?


    The prediction of seats that each party may win in the
    election is based on a swing model. The current poll makes
    an estimate of vote shares for political parties and alliances
    by interviewing selected respondents, and the seat forecast is
    made based on the result of the previous election.
    Performance Of Political Parties
    600
    500 481 485 462 471 478
    451
    400 418 421 440 440 403 387
    369 364 376
    342
    300
    200
    158 159 146 182
    100 129
    101
    42 43 40 49 66 51 49
    37
    34 31 28
    20 35 14
    13 93 34 13 27
    19
    12 15 12 16
    0 0 6 2 91 0 41 9
    2 6 10
    6 5 9 3

    Recognised National Parties Recognised State Parties


    Registered Unrecognised Parties Independent Parties
    2009 2014 2019
    15th Lok Sabha 16th Lok Sabha 17th Lok Sabha
    elections elections elections

    Voter turnout - Voter turnout - Voter turnout-


    56.97% 66.44% 67.11%

    UPA won NDA won NDA won


    Total voters
    Those who did not vote

    34%
    42% 58%
    66%

    Voter turnout in 2014 elections Voter turnout in 2009 elections


    Voter Turnout
    100

    90

    80

    70

    60

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    Voter Turnout LS 2014 Voter Turnout LS 2009


    S.No State Percentage Percentage DX=X-A DX^2 DY=Y-A DY^2
    of voters of voters Where Where
    from each from each A=7.9 A=14.25
    state(2009) X state(2014) Y

    1. Delhi 4 3.9 -3.9 15.21 -10.35 107.12


    2. Tamil Nadu 15 16.9 7.1 50.41 2.65 7.02
    3. Andhra 21 20.02 13.1 171.61 5.77 33.29
    Pradesh
    4. Chandigarh 0.1 0.1 -7.8 60.84 -14.15 200.29
    5. Karnataka 15.28 14.25 7.3 53.29 0 0
    6. Kerala 7.9 7.5 0 0 -6.75 45.56
    7. Gujarat 13.3 12.52 5.4 29.16 -1.73 2.99
    8. Assam 6.3 5.8 -1.6 2.56 -8.45 71.4
    9. J&K 13.4 2.2 -5.5 30.25 -12.05 145.2
    10. MP 2.9 14.8 6 36 0.55 0.3
    Total ∑DX ∑DX^2 ∑DY ∑DY^2

    20.1 449.33 -44.51 613.08

    Mean = ∑X/n Mean = Σ Y/ n


    =99.1/10 = 97.99/10
    =9.91 = 9.79
    Standard Deviation = √ Σ DX^2 /n - ( ΣDX/n)^2
    Standard deviation = √ Σ DY^2/n - ( ΣDY/n)^2
    =√449.33/10 - ( 20.1/10)^2 = √ 613.08/10 - ( -
    44.51/10)^2
    =√ 40.86
    = 6.3 = √ 41.49
    = 6.44
    Coefficient of variance = SD/ Mean ×100
    CV = 6.3/9.91×100 Coefficient of variance = SD /Mean ×100
    = 63.5%
    CV. = 6.44/9.79×100
    = 65.78%
    1. Electoral roll in 2009 was better than 2014 as
    per the data taken on the basis of Mean .
    2. Standard deviation of percentage of voters
    from each state in 2009 is 6.3 whereas it is 6.44
    in 2014
    3. Coefficient of variance in 2009 is 63.5% and
    that of 2014 is 65.78%
    1. The coefficient of variation shows the
    extent of variability of data in sample in
    relation to the mean of the population.
    2. The coefficient of variance of both the years
    is very high indicating high amount of
    deviation among the states in terms of
    number of voters. As per the data taken for
    2009 percentage of voters in Chandigarh
    were 0.1% whereas that of Andhra Pradesh
    is 21% which is a huge difference therefore
    there is a huge percentage of deviation.
    Weaknesses Remedies
    Absence of consideration of public Right to recall-right to the citizens to
    opinion reject all candidates, if they wish to do so.

    Regular cases of corruption and both Enhancement in the powers of election


    capturing commission

    Abusive use of political power by Steps to minimise instances of corruption


    politicians and booth capturing

    Poor management of democratic Reduction in the number of political


    institutions parties

    Division of society to attain political gains Avoiding dynastic succession within


    political parties
     The purpose of this comprehensive project is to get an idea
    how statisticians do the analysis of elections and develop a
    grater understanding.
     We have used both theory and practical to do the analysis
    and statistical tools like arithmetic mean, standard deviation
    and coefficient of variation are used.
     The greater deviation in the electoral roll is due to variations
    in the number of voters from different state ; obviously
    Chandigarh and UO cannot have same number of voters.
     The use of graphs give better idea of the situation so pie
    charts and different curves are used for the purpose.
     eci.gov.in
     Economic Times
     India Today
     Encyclopedia.com
     Analyticsindiamag.com
     Indianexpress.com
     Theprint.com

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