In a year, there are 12

months. Seven months

have 31 days. How
many months have 28
days?

12 months
What is full of holes
but can still hold
water?

A sponge
What can you hold
without ever
touching or using
your hands?

Your breath!
 First, I threw away the
outside and cooked the
inside. Then I ate the
outside and threw away
the inside. What did I
eat?

Corn on the cob

 Guess the next three
letters in the series
GTNTL.

I T S
Guess the next three letters in the series
 Your parents have six
sons including you and
each son has one sister.
How many people are in
the family?

NINE
Two parents, six sons, and one daughter. All of them have one sister (not six sisters).
 Random
Variables and
Probability
Distributions
 Would you bet
your life?

Uncertainty Chances
 Many decisions in
real-life situations are
made by assigning
probabilities to all
possible outcomes
and evaluating the
results.
 Historically, probability was studied by
gamblers who wanted to increase their
winnings (or at least decrease their losses)
• In the study of statistics, we are
concerned basically with the
presentation and interpretation of
chance outcomes that occur in a
planned study or scientific
investigation.

• Probability as a general concept can

be defined as the chance of an
event occurring.
 Basic concepts of Probability

A probability experiment is a
chance process that leads to well-
defined results called outcomes.
random experiment…

the outcome is certain.

the outcome is impossible.

the outcome has an even chance of

occurring.

the outcome has a strong but not a

certain chance of occurring.
 Sample Space is the set of all possible
outcomes of a statistical experiment and is
represented by the symbol S.

 An outcome is the result of single trial of a

probability experiment.

 An event consists of a set of outcomes of a

probability experiment. It is a subset of a sample
space, usually denoted by capital letters.

 Null Space or empty space (Φ , { }) is a subset of

the sample space that contains no elements.
 MutuallyExclusive. Two events are
mutually exclusive if they have no
common element.

A tree diagram is a device consisting of

line segments emanating from a starting
point and also from the outcome point. It
is used to determine all possible outcomes
of a probability experiment.
 Example
Experiment:
Flipping a coin and then flipping it a second time if a head occurs. If a tail
occurs on the first flip, then a die is tossed once.

S  HH , HT , T1, T 2, T 3, T 4, T 5, T 6
 Exercises
Construct a tree diagram for the following
experiments and list the elements of their sample
spaces.
1. Suppose that three items are selected at
random from a manufacturing process.
Each item is inspected and classified
defective or non-defective.
2. An experiment consists of tossing a die and
then flipping a coin if the number on the die
is even. If the number is odd, then the coin is
flipped twice.
3. A coin is tossed until a tail or three heads
appear.
 Properties of the Probability
 theprobability of an event is a non-
negative value; in fact it ranges from
zero (when the event is impossible) to
one (when the event is sure); the closer
the value to one, the more likely the
event will occur.
 the probability of the sure event is one
(in other words, the chance of a sure
event is 100 percent).
 Axioms of Probability
1. The probability of an impossible event is 0.
P ( )  0.
2. The probability of an event that is certain to
occur is 1. P ( S )  1
3. For any event A, the probability of A is
between 0 and 1 inclusive.
0  P( A)  1.
Computing
Probabilities
of Events
 Situation
 Two boxes contain green and blue chips. A chip is
drawn from the box, if it is green you win 100 pesos, if it
is blue you win nothing.

Box A Box B

•3 blue chips •30 blue chips

•2 green chips •20 green chips

Which box would you prefer?

 Approaches to Probability

1. Classical approach to probability

2. Empirical or relative frequency
approximation of probability
3. Subjective probabilities
…uses sample spaces to determine the
numerical probability that an event will
happen.
…assumes that all outcomes in the sample
space are equally likely to occur.

This probability of any event A is denoted by

𝑛 (𝐴)
P(A) =
𝑛 (𝑆)
 Examples

1. In a test, a question has 5 possible answers. If

an experiment makes a random guess on one
such question, what is the probability that the
response is wrong?

2. In rolling a balance die, what are the

probability of getting
a. an odd number?
b. an even number?
c. a perfect square number?
…relies on actual experience to determine the
likelihood of outcomes.
…uses frequency distribution based on observations to
determine numerical probabilities of events.

Given a frequency distribution, the probability of an

event A being in a given class is

𝑓
P(A) =
𝑛
 Examples

1. Find the probability that a randomly selected SHS

student owns a personal computer if out of 500 SHS
students surveyed, 135 of them own a personal
computer.

2. Suppose an insurance company knows from past

actuarial data that all males 40 years old, about 60
out of 100,000 will die within a one year period.
What will be the company’s estimation of the
probability of death for that age group?
3. Hospital records, indicated the knee replacement patients
stayed in the hospital for the number of days shown in the
distribution.
No. of days stayed Frequency
3 15
4 32
5 56
6 19
7 5
Find these probabilities.
a. A patient stayed exactly 5 days.
b. A patient stayed less than 6 days.
c. A patient stayed at most 4 days.
d. A patient stayed at least 5 days.
… uses a probability value based on an
educated guess or estimate, employing
opinions and inexact information.

…a person or group makes an educated guess

at the chance that an event will occur based
on the experience and evaluation of a solution.
 Examples

1. A financial analyst claim that there is 80%

probability that peso dollar exchange rate will
decreased by 3 pesos.

2. A physician might say that, on the basis of

her diagnosis, there is a 30% chance the
patient will need an operation.
 Events and Algebra of Sets
 The complement of an event A with respect to S is the
subset of all elements of S that are not in A. We denote
the complement of A by the symbol A’.

 The intersection of two events A and B, denoted by 𝐴 ∩

𝐵, is the event containing all elements that are
common to A and B.

 Two events are mutually exclusive or disjoint if 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 =

∅.

 The union of the two events A and B, denoted by 𝐴 ∪

𝐵, is the event containing all the elements that belong
to A or B.
Random Variables and
Probability Distributions
 Activities: Coin Tossing and Breath Holding

Activity 1
 Toss a 1-peso coin three times and record the results
 Count the number of heads that appeared

Activity 2
Hold your breath and record the time (use a cell
phone timer and record up to the nearest hundredth
of a second)
Statistical Experiment – an
activity that will produce
outcomes, or a process that
will generate data.
 A random variable is a function that
associates a real number with each
element in the sample space. We use a
capital letter, say X, to denote a random
variable and its corresponding small
letter, x, for one of its values. Each
possible value of X represents an event
that is a subset of the sample space for
the given experiment.
Note: Random variables are conceptually different from mathematical
variables. A random variable is linked to observations in the real world,
where uncertainty is involved.
 Example

 Two balls are drawn in succession without

replacement from an urn containing 4 red balls and
3 black balls. The possible outcomes and the values
x of the random variable X, where X is the number of
red balls, are

Sample Space X
RR 2
RB 1
BR 1
BB 0
Frequency and Relative Frequency Distributions of the
Number of TVs owned by City of Manila Families

Number of Frequency Relative

TVs Owned Frequency
0 34 0.068
1 316 0.632
2 132 0.264
3 18 0.036
N = 500 1.000
 TYPES OF
RANDOM
VARIABLES
Recall

A variable is any information, attribute,

characteristic, number, or quantity that
describes a person, place, event,
thing, or idea that can be measured or
counted. A variable can be qualitative
or quantitative; and a quantitative
variable can either be discrete or
continuous.
Discrete Continuous
A discrete variable is a quantitative variable
whose value can only be attained through
counting. It can be finite in number of
possible values or countably infinite if the
counting process has no end.
 In an experiment, the outcome is said to be
discrete random variable if the experiment
has only countable or countably infinite
number of outcomes. No other outcome
exists between two consecutive outcomes.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7
 A continuous variable is a quantitative variable
that can assume an infinitely many,
uncountable number of real number values.
The value given to an observation can include
values as small as the instrument of
measurement allows.
 In an experiment, the outcome is said to be a
continuous random variable if an outcome can
take an uncountably infinite number of possible
outcomes within a specified real number
interval. Here, it is always possible to have an
outcome between any two existing ones.

0 1
Discrete Probability
Distributions
Group Activity
 Itis consists of the values a random
variable can assume and the
corresponding probabilities of the values.
The probabilities are determined
theoretically or by observation. There are
requirements for a distribution of a
discrete random variable.
The listing is exhaustive (all possible
outcomes are included).
The outcomes are mutually exclusive (The
outcomes cannot occur at the same time).
A probability distribution
function is a function P(X) that
shows the relative probability
that each outcome of an
experiment will happen.
 A discrete probability
distribution is a table of values
that shows the probability of
any outcomes of an
experiment.
 Two Requirements for a Probability
Distribution

 The sum of the probabilities of all the events in

the sample space must be equal to 1.

 The probability of each event in the sample

space must be between or equal to 0 and 1.
That is, 0 ≤ P(X) ≤ 1.

A probability distribution gives the probability for each value of the random
variable.
If H stands for heads and T for
tails, there are eight equally
likely possible outcomes in 3
successive tosses of a coin. Find
the probability distribution for
the number of heads.
Example
 S = (HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, TTH,
THT, HTT, TTT)

Probability distribution

Number
of Heads 0 1 2 3
(x)

P (X = x) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8

Determine whether each distribution is a
probability distribution.

𝑥
1. Does P(X) = (where X can take on the
5
values of 0, 1, 2, 3,) determine a probability
distribution?
𝑥
2. Does P(X) = (where X can be 0, 1, 2, 3, or
10
4) determine a probability distribution?
3. Check whether the correspondence given
𝑥+3
by f(x) = for x = 1, 2, and 3 can serve as
15
the probability distribution of some random
variable.
Example
Find the probability distribution
of an experiment where the
sum of the number shown on a
pair of dice in a single throw is
considered.

Example 1
A shipment of 8 similar
microcomputers to a retail outlet
contains 3 that are defective. If a
school makes random purchase of
2 of these computers, find the
probability distribution for the
number of defectives.
Example 2
Three cards are drawn in
succession from a deck without
replacement. Let X be the number
of spades. Construct the
probability distribution table.

Example 3
 Consider a group of 12 computer sets, two
of which have white cords and ten which
have black cords. Suppose three of them
are chosen at random and shipped to a
care center. What are the probabilities that
zero, one, or two of the sets with white
cords are shipped? Construct a probability
distribution table.

Example 4
Probability histogram of a discrete
random variable
A probability histogram shows relative
probabilities of the sample points in the
form of a bar graph.

 Letthe x-axis denote the independent

variable, which is the set of sample
points, and let the y-axis denote the
dependent variable, which is the
corresponding probabilities of the
samples points.
 x

Sample Histogram
 Binomial Distribution
 A binomial distribution is a probability
distribution with only two possible outcomes:
success and failure.
 Let p = probability of success, q = probability of
failure, and n = number of trials performed
during an experiment of getting x successes.
The probability of getting x successes out of n
trials is given by
P (x) = nCx • px • q n – x .
 Binomial Distribution
 The probability mass function of a binomial distribution is
given by

X Success Failure

P(X) p q

where p + q = 1.
 P (x) = nCx • p x •q n–x

 Combination is an arrangement of
objects/things without reference to the
order in which they are arranged.
 The number of possible combinations of r
objects from a collection of n objects is
given by the formula
𝒏!
nCr = 𝒏 −𝒓 ! 𝒓!

Note: Every arrangement in order of a set of things is called a permutation.

 n! (n factorial) = n • (n – 1) • (n – 2) •…•(2) (1)

 Evaluate the following:

a.) 5! = 5 (5 – 1) (5 – 2) (5 – 3) (5 – 4)
= 5 (4) (3) (2) (1)
= 120
b.) 8! = 8(8-1)(8-2)(8-3)(8-4)(8-5)(8-6) (8-7)
= (8(7)(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)
= 40, 320

Note: nCn = 1, nC0 = 1, nCr = nCn-r

 Examples (Combination)
Evaluate the following:

1. 8C3

8! 8! 8(7)(6)(5!)
= = = = 56
8 −3 !3! 5!3! 5!(3)(2)(1)

2. 7C2

7! 7! 7(6)(5!)
= = = = 21
7 −2 !2! 5!2! 5!(2)(1)
 Example (Combination)

A shipment of 7 television sets contains 2 defective

sets. A hotel makes a random purchase of 2 of the
sets. Let X represents the number of nondefective sets
purchased by the hotel.

S = {DD, ND, DN, NN}

X (No. of
0 1 2
Nondefective)
P (X = x) 1/21 10/21 10/21
P (X = 0) = (2/7)(1/6) = 1/21
P (X = 1) = (5/7)(2/6) + (2/7)(5/6) = 10/21
P (X = 2) = (5/7)(4/6) = 10/21
 Example (binomial distribution)

 Fivefriends attended a volleyball varsity

teams tryouts. What is the probability
that only 3 of them will be selected if P
(success) = 60% and P (failure) = 40% for
each of them?

P (x) = nCx • px • q n – x
 Example (binomial distribution)

A survey found that one out of five

Filipinos say he or she has visited a
doctor in any given month. If 10 people
are selected at random, find the
probability that exactly 3 will have
visited a doctor last month.

P (x) = nCx • px • q n – x
 Example (binomial distribution)

A basketball team has to play 3

games during the elimination round of
a tournament. What is the probability
that they will win:
a. 0 games?
b. 1 game?
c. 2 games?
d. all 3 games?
P (x) = nCx • px • q n – x
Group Activity
 Themean of discrete random variables, also
known as the expected value, is the
weighted average of all possible values of
the random variables. The symbol used for
the mean is µ.

 Thevariance is a measure of spread or

dispersion. It measures the variation of the
values of a random variable from the mean.
The symbol used for the variance 𝝈2 and its
square root 𝝈 is called the standard
deviation.
 If P(X = x) is the probability of every value of x,

1. Mean: 𝜇 = σ 𝑥 • 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥)

2. Variance: 𝜎 2 = σ(𝑥 − µ)2 • 𝑃 (𝑋 = 𝑥)

3. Standard deviation: 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 = 𝜎 2= 𝜎

Mean µ = np
Variance 𝜎 2 = npq
Standard deviation 𝜎 2 = 𝑛𝑝𝑞
 Example 1

 Students were asked to estimate the length (in inches)

of a table. The errors in the estimated values were
recorded and tabulated as follows:

Error (x) 3 4 5 6 7
P(X = x) 0.25 0.10 0.30 0.15 0.20

 Find the mean error of this probability distribution.

 Determine the variance and the standard
deviation.
 Example 2
 The report of a weather bureau on the forecast of the number of
typhoons entering the country’s area of responsibility is manifested in the
following probability distribution.

Probability
No. of typhoons per month (x)
P(X=x)
0 0.15
1 0.35
2 0.30
3 0.10
4 0.10

 What is the average number of typhoon entering the

country per month?
 What is the standard deviation?
 Example 3

 The number of shoes sold per day at a retail store

is shown in the table. Find the mean, variance,
and standard deviation of this distribution.

x 19 20 21 22 23
P(X=x) 0.10 0.20 0.40 0.20 0.10
Example 4

If70% of the examinees are

able to pass an exam, what is
the average and standard
deviation of the passers out of
500 examinees?
Example 5

The probability that a planted

radish seed germinates is 0.80. A
gardener plants nine seeds. Let X
denote the number of radish
seeds that successfully germinate.
What is the average number of
seeds the gardener could expect
to germinate? What is the value of
the standard deviation?