Introduction to Probability

Experiment, Outcomes, and Sample

Space

 Experiment
 - Is a process that, when performed, results in one and
only one of many observations.
 Outcomes
 - These observations are called the outcomes of the
experiment
 Sample Space
 - The collection of all outcomes for an experiment is
called a sample space denoted by S
 Experiment, Outcomes, and Sample
Space

 Example
Experiment Outcomes Sample Space

Toss a coin once H, T S={H,T} 

Roll a dice once 1,2,3,4,5,6  S={1,2,3,4,5,6}

Toss a coin twice HH,HT,TT,TH  S={HH,HT,TT,TH} 

Play Lottery Win, Lose  S={Win, Lose}

Take a test Fail, Pass  S={Fail, Pass} 

 Tree diagram
 In a tree diagram, each outcome is represented by a
branch of the tree.
 Example
 Draw the tree diagram for the experiment of tossing
a coin twice.
 Calculating Probability

 Probability
  is a numerical measure if the likelihood
that a specific event will occur, is denoted by P.
 the probability that a compound event A will occur is
denoted by .
Two Properties of Probability

 
Three Conceptual Approached to Probability

 Classical probability
 Relative frequency concept of probability
 Subjective probability concept.
 Classical Probability

 Classical Probability
 The classical probability rule is applied to compute the probabilities of
events for an experiment for which all outcomes are equally likely.

 Example
 Find the probability of obtaining a head and the probability obtaining a
tail for tossing a coin once.

 Example
 Find the probability of obtaining an even numbers for rolling a dice once.
Relative Frequency Concept of Probability

 
 The relative frequency probability is the ratio of the
occurrence of a singular event and the total number of
outcomes
 It is applied to compute the probabilities of events for an
experiment for which the various outcomes for the
corresponding experiments are not equally likely.
 If some event A occurs f times out of N possible
opportunities, then, according to the relative frequency
concept of probability:
Relative Frequency Concept of Probability

  Example

 Ali wants to estimate the probability that a piece of

toast will land butter-side-down. He drops a piece of
toast 100 times and observed that it lands butter-side-
down 65 times. Find the relative frequency
probability.
 Subjective Probability

 Subjective probability is the probability assigned to

an event influenced by the biases on subjective
judgment, experience, information and belief.
 No formula to calculate it.

Example:
1. There is 40% chance of rain tomorrow
2. Estimating the likelihood you will pass the final exam
this semester.
3. A doctor diagnosing that a patient has a 30% chance
of getting the flu this winter.
Marginal and Conditional Probabilities

 Marginal Probability
 Marginal probability is the probability of a single
event without consideration of any other event. They
are calculated by dividing the corresponding row
margins (total of the rows) or column margins (total
of the columns) by the grand total.
 Marginal Probability
  In Favor Against  
Male 15 45  60
Female 4 356  360
   19 401  420 

  Example

 
 Conditional Probability

 Conditional
  probability is the probability that an event
will occur given that another event has already
occurred.
 If A and B are two events, then the conditional
probability of A given B is denoted as
 Conditional Probability
  In Favor Against  
Male 15 45  60
Female 4 356  360
   19 401  420 

 Example
 
 Refer to Table 4.2, find:
=
 Intersection of Events
Intersection
  of Events
 The intersection of two events is given by the
outcomes that are common to both events. The
intersection of events A and B is also denoted by
either or .
Example:
 Union of Events
   of Events
Union
 The union of two events, A and B includes all outcomes that are either
in A or in B or in both A and B. The union of events A and B is also
denoted by
.

Exp:
Let A be the event that a lorry does not run
Let B be the event that the fuel station is running out a diesel
A ᴜ B= { A lorry does not run OR a station running out of diesel OR
BOTH}
 Union of Events

 Example
 A university president has proposed that all students
must take a course in ethics as a requirement for
graduation. Three hundred faculty members and
students from this university were asked about their
opinion on this issue. The table below gives a two-way
classification of the responses of these faculty
members and students.
 Union of Events
  Favor Oppose Neutral  

Faculty 45 15 10 70 

Student 90 110 30  230

   135  125  40  300


i.   Find the probability that one person selected at
random from these 300 persons is a faculty member
or is in favor of this proposal?
[P(Faculty or Favor)=]
ii. Is a student or is opposed of this proposal?
[P(student or Oppose)= ]
iii. Is a student or is neutral of this proposal?
[P(Student or Neutral)= ]
 Intersection and Union

 Example
 In a group of 2500 persons, 1400 are female, 600 are
vegetarian and 400 are female and vegetarian. What is the
probability that a randomly selected person from this group is
a male or vegetarian?

𝑃(𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑜𝑟𝑉𝑒𝑔𝑒𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑛)
 
Male Female
Vegetarian 200 400 600
Non- 900 1000 1900
Vegetarian
1100 1400 2500
 Complementary Events
 The
  complement of event A, denoted by and read as “A bar” or “A
complement”, is the event that includes all the outcomes for an
experiment that are not in A.

 Example:
Let A be the event that a red card is selected from an ordinary deck of card and
let S be the entire deck. Find A’ which event that the card is not red but black.
S=Entire deck=52 cards
A=Red card=26 cards
A’=Black cards
=52-26
=26
P(A’)=26/52
or
P(A’)=1-P(A)
= 1-(26/52)
=0.5
Example:
 In
  a group of 2000 taxpayers, 400 have been audited
by the IRS at least once. If one taxpayer randomly is
selected from this group, what are the two
complementary events for this experiment, and what
are their probabilities?
Let:
A : Event that selected taxpayer has been audited
A’: Event that selected taxpayer has never been audited
Probability:
P(A)=
P(A’)= 8
 Mutually Exclusive Events
 Events
  that cannot occur together are said to be
mutually exclusive events.
 Such events do not have any common outcomes.

Example: Consider the following two events for an

application filed by a person to obtain a car loan
Event A: event that the loan application is approved
Event B: event that the loan application is rejected
What is the joint probability of A and B?
P(A ∩ B)=0
 Mutually Exclusive Events

 Example
Consider the following events for rolling a dice once.
A = an even number is observed = {2, 4, 6}
B = an odd number is observed = {1, 3, 5}
C = a number less than 5 is observed = {1, 2, 3, 4}
Are events A and B mutually exclusive? [Yes]
Are events A and C mutually exclusive? [No]
 Independent Events

 Two
  events are said to be independent if the
occurrence of one does not affect the probability of
the occurrence of the other.
 In other words, A and B are not related
 Independent events if

Example:
Getting heads on coin toss and rolling a 6 with a six-
sided die
 Independent and Dependent Events

 Example
 A box contains a total of 100 CDs that were manufactured
on two machines. Of them, 60 were manufactured on
Machine I. Of the total CDs, 15 are defective. Of the 60
CDs that were manufactured on Machine I, 9 are
defective. Let D be the event that a randomly selected CD
is defective, and let A be the event that a randomly
selected CD was manufactured on Machine I.
Are events A and D independent?
Solution:
 A:
  Event that CD is defective
D: Event that CD manufactured on Machine I
Are event A and D independent?
Event A and D be independent if P(D)=P(D|A) otherwise
they will be dependent.

P(D)=
P(D|A)==0.15
Since P(D)=P(D|A) , A and D are independent.
 Dependent Events

 Two
  events are dependent if the occurrence of one
change the probability of the other occurring.
 A and B are dependent events if
Example:


There
  are 6 red ball and 4 white ball in a basket. If one
ball is taken out without looking and then a second one
is taken out, what is the probability that they both will
be red?
P(first ball is red)==
P(second ball is red)=
P(two red balls)= ==
The probability of picking two red balls is