Chapter Two: Financial Market and Instruments
Chapter Two: Financial Market and Instruments
Chapter Two: Financial Market and Instruments
5
Con’t
6
7
Characteristics of a Good Financial Market
10
Con’t
12
Organization of the Securities Market
Financial markets includes:
1. Primary market
2. Secondary market
3. Third market
4. Fourth Market
5. Money market
6. Capital markets
7. Derivative market
8. Foreign exchange markets
13
Primary markets
15
Con’t
16
Con’t
17
Con’t
18
Con’t
19
Con’t
21
Functions of Primary Market
a.Origination: deals with the origin of the new issue (i.e., the
nature of the security, the size of the issue, timing of the
issue, and floatation method of the issue.
b. Underwriting: It makes the share predictable and removes
the element of uncertainty in the subscription.
c. Distribution: refers to the sale of securities to investors.
22
Con’t
es
riti
cu
Underwriter
se
Issuer
Company Investors
Broker-Dealer
ds
n
Fu
23
Con’t
Issuer
Investment
banker
24
Secondary markets
25
Features of Secondary Market
• It creates liquidity
• It comes after primary market
• It has a particular place
• It encourages new investments
26
Functions of Secondary Markets
27
Con’t
28
Requirements for Listing
• Securities to be listed in stock exchange center,
companies have to meet certain minimum
requirements with respect to:
– The number of shareholders
– Trading activity
– The number and value of shares held in public
hands
– Annual earnings
29
Relationship between the primary and secondary
market
31
OTC market
32
Con’t
33
Third Market
35
Fourth Market
39
Trading on Exchanges
• Trading Methods
40
• Example for continuous market: Given the order flow at
10:00, the market clearing price of a stock may be $70;
at 11:00 of the same trading day, the market clearing
price goes up $80 with different order flows.(example
for continous markets)
• Example for call market: London gold bullion market,
records prices set at the ‘morning fix’ and the
‘afternoon fix’. These fixes take place at the two call
auctions which are held daily.
41
• Types of Orders
1. Market order: The simplest type of order and that order
to buy/sell at prevailing/best price in the market.
• Buyers give priority offering lower price. sellers give
offering higher price.
43
2. Limit order: order to buy/sell at a certain price or within a certain
time period.
• A buy limit order indicates that the security may be purchased only
at the designated price or lower.
• A sell limit order indicates that the security may be sold at the
designated price or higher.
– Sell overpriced stock that you don’t own and purchase it back
later (at a lower price) or borrow the stock from another
investor (through your broker) 45
• The investor may be able to sell the security without
buying on margin.
• Interest rate on margin credit may be below prime rate (Bank rate)
from 50% up
48
Con’t
49
Con’t
51
Con’t
Day-0 Trading
Day
Selling Buying
Broker Securities Cheque Broker
T+1 T+1
DSE Clearing
Cheque T+3 House Securities T+3
54
Con’t
55
Money Market
&
Capital Market
07/21/2021 56
THE MONEY MARKET
• Money market is the term designed to include the financial
institutions which handle the purchase, sale & transfers of
short term credit instruments.
• Money-Currency-is not traded in the money markets.
• Only those securities having short term maturity period and
are close to being money securities are traded.
• The money market, therefore, is a component of the
financial markets for assets involved in short-term
borrowing and lending with original maturities of one year
or shorter time frames.
07/21/2021 57
Why Money Markets?
•Money markets have a cost advantage over banks
because of two facts.
07/21/2021 58
2. Interest rate restrictions are used to avoid
competition among banks. This substantially
reduce the competitiveness of the banking
industry with money markets which do not
worry about such restrictions especially during
the times of high inflation
07/21/2021 61
5. Active secondary markets makes money market
securities very flexible instruments to use to fill short
term financial needs that is the only reason why most
organizations in countries having well-developed
financial markets report them as cash on their balance
sheets.
6. Money markets are wholesale markets: most
transactions are very large as a result of this large size
most individual investors cannot invest their money
directly in the money markets.
07/21/2021 62
• To solve this problem dealers and brokers,
operating in trading rooms of large banks and
brokerage houses, bring customers together.
• Despite the wholesale nature of the market,
innovative securities and trading methods help
investors enjoy the benefits of money market
securities.
07/21/2021 63
The Purpose of the Money Markets
07/21/2021 68
6. Insurance Companies: property and casualty
insurance companies must maintain the liquidity
because of their unpredictable need for funds.
• Such firms, therefore, should invest some amount of
their investment funds in money market securities to
raise cash during emergency situations.
7. Pension Funds: these companies invest a portion of
their cash in money markets so that they can take
advantage of investment opportunities that they may
identify in the stock or bond markets.
07/21/2021 69
8. Individuals
• With the special help of the money market
mutual funds individual investors with
relatively small amounts of cash to invest can get
an access to invest on large denomination money
market instruments.
07/21/2021 70
Money Market Instruments
2. Federal Funds
3. Repurchase Agreements
5. Commercial Papers
6. Bankers Acceptances
07/21/2021 7. Eurodollars 71
Treasury Bill
• T-bills are one of the debt securities that a government issues
having a great advantage of liquidity.
• The Treasury Bill market is the only active primary market in
Ethiopia.
• Tenders are offered periodically by the Central Bank.
• The government offers 28‐day, 91 day and 182‐day bills.
• A sample of the amounts offered and yields on T‐Bills is
shown in the table that appear in the following slide.
• Any one can participate in the auction of Treasury Bills with
the minimum amount of birr 5000.
07/21/2021 72
07/21/2021 73
• Most money market instruments do not pay
interest. Rather the investor pays less for the
security than it will be worth when it matures, and
the increase in price provides a return.
• In simple terms, short-term securities are issued at
discount and redeemed at par. This is because they
often mature before the issuer can mail out interest
checks.
07/21/2021 74
• The yield on an investment is found by computing the
increase in value in the security during its holding
period.
• i.e. the annualized yield on the investment is found
using the following formula:
• For example, let's say you buy a 91 days T-bill priced at
$9,800. Essentially, the government writes you an IOU
(I owe you) for $10,000 that it agrees to pay back in 91
days.
07/21/2021 75
• You will not receive regular payments as you would
with a coupon bond, for example.
• Instead, the value to you that you will get comes from the
difference between the discounted value you originally
paid and the amount you receive back ,10,000.
• In this case, the T-bill pays you a 2.04% interest rate of
return ($200/$9,800 = 2.04%) over a 91days period. The
annualized yield on investment can be:
07/21/2021 76
T-bills risk
• T-bills virtual have zero default risk because the
government can’t fail to pay interest and maturity
value on the maturity date.
• For this reason, t-bill rate are usually considered as
the risk free rate of return when valuing different
securities.
07/21/2021 77
• The t-bills in countries having good financial
market conditions is deep and liquid.
• Deep: presence of many buyers and sellers of a
security in a market.
• Liquid: when securities can be transferred
from on investor to another quickly and
without incurring substantial transaction costs.
07/21/2021 78
Features of TB
• Issuer: it is issued by the government for raisings
short term funds for bridging temporary gaps
between revenue and expenditure.
• Liquidity: it enjoys high degree of liquidity
• Monetary Mgt: TBs serve as an important tool of
monetary management used by the central bank of
the country to influence liquidity in to the economy.
07/21/2021 79
2. Federal Funds(interbank lending)/call money
• Are short-term funds transferred among financial
institutions usually for a period of one day.
• One of the regulation tools that central banks can
use to ensure the investor protection and liquidity
in the financial sector is setting a minimum reserve
requirement for banks that a certain portion of
their funds collected from savers in the national
bank account without earning interest.
07/21/2021 80
• To meet these reserve requirements, banks must
maintain adequate deposits in their central bank
account. At the end of daily transactions some
banks may fall short of the requirements while
some ended up with excess funds in their accounts.
• Therefore banks with shortages will borrow from
banks having excess funds for overnight. The
government can indirectly control the federal funds
market by altering the reserve requirement.
07/21/2021 81
Terms of Federal Funds
• Terms of agreements for federal funds is one day and
frequently referred to as overnight investments (call
money).
• Banks analyze their reserve position on a daily basis and
either borrow or invest in these funds, depending on
whether they have excess or deficit reserves.
• A bank with excess money will call up on its
correspondent banks having reciprocal accounts and sell
its excess funds to bank(s) that offer highest rate.
07/21/2021 82
• When the dealing concludes the investor bank
immediately transfers the contracted amount to
borrowers account in the central bank using
electronic communications.
• The next day, the funds are transferred back, and
the process begins again.
• The federal funds are short-term unsecured loans
as deals are completed by oral communications of
participants.
07/21/2021 83
Characteristics of call money market
1. The maturity period is one day
07/21/2021 84
Repurchase Agreements (Repos)
• Repos are much like federal funds except that non
banks can participate. In repos a firm can sell
treasury securities by agreeing to buy them back at
a specified future date.
• Most repos have a short-term maturity usually
from 3 to 14 days. However, there are also markets
for 1-3 months repos.
07/21/2021 85
• Government security dealers usually engage in repos.
The dealers may sell it to a bank with a promise that it
will buy the securities back the next day this makes
repo a short-term collateralized loan.
• Because of their collateralized nature they hold low
risk of default and ultimately have low interest rate
returns.
• Central banks also engage in repos market to conduct
the monetary policy.
07/21/2021 86
Negotiable Certificates of Deposits (CDs)
• Certificate of deposit is a financial document showing
that a person or organization has a specified sum on
deposit at a bank, usually for a specific period, at
special interest rate.
• A negotiable CD is a bearer instrument that whoever
holds the instrument at the date of maturity can
receive the principal and interest. The CD can be
bought and sold in the secondary market until
maturity.
07/21/2021 87
• The maturity of CDs usually ranges from1-4
months.
• CDs charge a rate slightly higher than T-bills
because that have a slightly greater chance of
default.
• CDs are usually denominated in higher currency
values.
07/21/2021 88
Characteristics of CD
• Negotiable instrument: CDs are negotiable term
deposit certificate issued by commercial banks.
• Maturity: The maturity period of CDs ranges from 15
days to one year.
07/21/2021 90
Characteristics of CP
07/21/2021 91
Bankers Acceptances
• Banker’s acceptance is a bank draft (a promise of payment
similar to a check) issued by a firm, payable at some
future date and guaranteed for by a fee by the bank that
stamps it as “accepted”.
07/21/2021 93
Eurodollar
• Many contracts from various countries around the
world require payments be made in U.S. Dollars
due to dollar’s stability.
• For this reason many companies and governments
choose to hold dollars.
• Before cold war, these currency deposits were
made in New York money center banks.
07/21/2021 94
• Starting from cold war, with the fear that these deposits may be
expropriated some large London based banks responded by
offering to hold dollar denominated deposits in British banks.
reasons:
07/21/2021 97
CAPITAL MARKETS
year.
07/21/2021 100
I.I.The
TheBond
BondMarket
Market
•• A
A bond
bond isis aa promise
promise to
to make
make periodic
periodic coupon
coupon payments
payments
and
and to
to repay
repay principal
principal at
at maturity;
maturity; breach
breach of
of this
this promise
promise isis
an
anevent
eventof
ofdefault,
default,or
or
•• Bond
Bondisisaadebt
debtinvestment in
investment inwhich
whichan investor
an investorloans
loansmoney
money
to
to an
an entity
entity (corporate
(corporate or
or governmental)
governmental) that
that borrows
borrows the
the
funds
fundsfor
foraadefined
definedperiod
periodof
oftime
timeat
ataafixed interest
fixed interestrate.
rate.
•• Carry
Carryoriginal
originalmaturities
maturitiesgreater
greaterthan
than one
oneyear
yearso
sobonds
bondsare
are
instruments
instruments of
of the
the capital
capital markets
markets and
and issuers
issuers are
are
corporations
corporationsand
andgovernment
governmentunits
units
07/21/2021 101
• Bonds are used as a means of financing variety of
projects and activities by companies, municipalities,
state, local and foreign governments.
• Bonds are commonly referred to as fixed-income
securities and are one of the three main financial
asset classes, along with stocks and cash equivalents
(i.e., money market securities).
• The place where bonds and other debt instruments
are sold is called the debt market.
07/21/2021 102
Basics of Bonds
• Corporate borrowers issue bonds both to raise finance
for major projects and to cover ongoing and
operational expenses.
• Bonds are also issued by public authorities, credit
institutions, companies and
supranational(Multinational) institutions in the
primary markets.
• The most common process of issuing bonds is through
underwriting.
07/21/2021 103
• In underwriting, one or more security firms or
banks, forming a syndicate/association, buy an
entire issue of bonds from an issuer and re-sell
them to investors.
• The security firm takes the risk of being unable to
sell on the issue to end investors.
07/21/2021 104
Treasury
TreasuryNotes
Notesand
andBonds
Bonds
•• T-notes
T-notes and
and T-bonds
T-bonds issued
issued by
by the
the U.S.
U.S. treasury
treasury to
to finance
finance
the
thenational
nationaldebt
debtand
andother
otherfederal
federalgovernment
governmentexpenditures
expenditures
•• Backed
Backed by
by the
the full
full faith
faith and
and credit
credit of
of the
the U.S.
U.S. government
government
and
andare
aredefault
defaultrisk
riskfree
free
•• Pay
Payrelatively
relativelylow
lowrates
ratesof
ofinterest
interest(yields
(yieldsto
tomaturity
maturity
•• Given
Given their
their longer
longer maturity,
maturity, not
not entirely
entirely risk
risk free
free due
due to
to
interest
interestrate
ratefluctuations
fluctuations
•• Pay
Pay coupon
coupon interest
interest (semiannually),
(semiannually), notes
notes have
have maturities
maturities
from
from1-10
1-10yrs,
yrs,bonds
bonds10-30
10-30yrs
yrs
07/21/2021 105
Municipal
MunicipalBonds
Bonds
•• Securities
Securities issued
issued by
by state
state and
and local
local governments
governments to
to fund
fund
either
either temporary
temporary imbalances
imbalances between
between operating
operating
expenditures
expenditures and
and receipts
receipts or
or to
to finance
finance long-term
long-term capital
capital
outlays
outlays for
for activities
activities such
such as
as school
school construction,
construction, public
public
utility
utilityconstruction
constructionor
ortransportation
transportationsystems
systems
•• Tax
Tax receipts
receipts or
or revenues
revenues generated
generated are
are the
the source
source of
of
repayment
repayment
•• Attractive
Attractive to
to household
household investors
investors because
because interest
interest (but
(but
not
notcapital
capitalgains)
gains)are
aretax
taxexempt
exempt
07/21/2021 106
Corporate
Corporate Bonds
Bonds
•• All
All long-term
long-term bonds
bonds issued
issued by
by corporations
corporations
•• Minimum
Minimum denominations
denominations publicly
publicly traded
traded
corporate
corporate bonds
bonds is
is $1,000
$1,000
•• Generally
Generally pay
pay interest
interest semiannually
semiannually
•• Bond
Bond indenture/agreement:
indenture/agreement: is
is aa legal
legal contract
contract
that
that specifies
specifies the
the rights
rights and
and obligations
obligations of
of the
the
bond
bond issuer
issuer and
and the
the bond
bond holder
holder
07/21/2021 107
Cost of Bonds to the Issuer
– Maturity
– Issuer’s risk
– Cost of money
07/21/2021 108
• The longer the bond’s maturity, the higher the interest rate
(or cost) to the firm.
– Long-term debt pays higher interest rates than short-
term debt
– The longer the maturity of bond, the less accuracy there
is in predicting future interest rates; so the greater the
bondholder’s risk of giving up an opportunity to lend
money at a higher rate.
– The longer the term, the greater the chance that the
issuer might default.
07/21/2021 109
• The greater the default risk of the issuer, the
higher the cost of the issue (interest rate).
07/21/2021 112
Stock Markets
Primary Markets
A primary market sale may be a first-time issue by a
private firm going public called initial Public Offerings
(IPOs) or it can be issuance of new stock by a firm which
already placed its some shares in primary markets.
In a primary market, stocks can be issued through either a
public sale where the stock is offered to the general
investing public or a private placement where the stock is
sold privately to the limited number of large investors.
07/21/2021 113
Secondary Stock Markets
Secondary markets are markets in which stocks, once
issued, are traded.
The following are the major Secondary stock markets:
07/21/2021 116
Derivative Market
117
Derivative Market
118
Derivative securities provide a number of useful functions
in the areas of risk management and investment.
In fact, derivatives were originally designed to enable
market participants to eliminate risks.
A wheat farmer, for example, can fix the price of his crop
before it is planted to eliminate price risk.
An exporter can fix a foreign exchange rate even before
beginning to manufacture the product, eliminating foreign
exchange risk.
119
Forward contract
120
The buyer of a forward contract agrees to take
delivery of an underlying asset at a future time, T, at
a price agreed upon today.
No money changes hands until time T.
The seller also agrees to deliver the underlying asset
at a future time, T, at a price agreed upon today.
Again, no money changes hands until time T.
121
A forward contract, therefore, simply amounts to setting a
price today for a trade that will occur in the future.
Forward contracts are traded on the Over-the-Counter
market (OTC) rather than on exchange –Usually between
two financial institutions or between financial institution
and its clients.
122
1. Long position: A party assumes a long position
agrees to buy the underlying asset on a specified
date for a specified price.
2. Short position: party assumes a short position
agrees to sell the underlying asset on a specified date
for a specified price.
123
Example:
124
Cont’d
Note that this price is fixed and not depend upon the
spot price of wheat at the time of delivery and
payment.
Moreover, in forward contract, the whole gain or loss
is realized at the end of the life of the contact.
125
Payoffs from forward contract
128
Future contract
129
Second, unlike forward contract, future contracts are
traded on an exchange.
To make the trade possible, the exchange specifies
certain standardized features of the contract like
contract size (number of units delivered in one
contract), delivery date, quality of the underlying
asset.
130
Comparison between forward contract and future contract
131
Example:
Suppose that Dire Dawa food complex factory purchases
500-quintal wheat future contract on the Ethiopian
Commodity Exchange (ECX) at 8:30 AM on August 10,
2014.
At that time, the future price is Birr 850 per quintal.
At the close of the trading day on August 10, the future price
has fallen to Birr 820 per quintal.
Because of the decline of the wheat price, the buyer’s
position has changed by 500 Quintal (Birr 820 – Birr 850) =
- Birr 15,000.
Since the buyer (Dire Dawa food complex factory) has
bought the future contracts and the price has gone down, it
has lost money on the day and its broker will immediately
take Birr 15,000 out of its account.
132
On the opposite side of the buyer’s buy order, there was
a seller, who has made a gain of Birr 15,000.
The Birr 15,000 is credited to the seller’s account.
Suppose that again at the close of trading the following
day, the future price of wheat is Birr 870 per quintal.
Since the buyer has bought the future and the price has
gone up, it makes money: 500 (Birr 870 – Birr 820) = +
Birr 25,000 and it is credited to buyer’s account.
This money, of course, comes from the seller’s account.
Thus, the future trading is a Zero-sum-game, whatever
one party loses, the counterparty gains.
133
Note that contracts are marked-to-market at the close of
each trading day until the contract expires.
At expiration, there are two different mechanisms for
settlement.
Most financial future contracts, such as stock index,
foreign exchange and interest rate futures, are cash
settled, where as most physical futures like agricultural,
metal etc, are settled by delivery of the physical
commodity.
134
Margin
137
Option
138
The date specified in the contract is known as the
expiration or maturity date.
The price specified in the contract is known as the
exercise price or strike price.
Options can also be classified in to two based on the
date to exercise the right.
America Option: It can be exercised at any time up to
the expiration date.
European Option: It can be exercised only on the
expiration date.
Thus, most of the options that are traded on the
exchange are American.
139
Call Option
Example: Assume that an investor buys a European call
option with a strike price of Birr 100 per share to
purchase 100 shares of NILE Company for a cost of
Birr 5 per share. The expiration date of the option is
in 90 days. The current price of the stock is Birr 98.
1. What would be the total transaction cost?
2. In what condition a holder exercise its right?
3. What would be the net profit or loss if the price of the stock
is Birr 104 and 107 on the expiration date?
4. What would be the maximum net loss of an investor if he
does not exercise his right?
140
Solution
141
3. Net profit or loss = Total revenue – Total cost
Total Revenue = Selling price × Number of share
= Birr 104/share × 100 shares = Birr 10,400
Total cost = Purchase cost + transaction cost
= ( Birr 100/ share × 100 shares) + Birr 500
= Birr 10,000 + Birr 500 = Birr 10,500
Thus, Net loss = 10,400 – 10,500 = (Birr 100)
• When price is Br 107, profit will be Br 200
4. The maximum loss will be equal to total transaction cost. Thus, it
is Birr 500.
142
Put Option
143
Solution
1. The transaction cost = Birr 7 /share X 100 shares=
Birr700
2. An investor will exercise his right, when the stock
price is below Birr 70 on the expiration date.
3. Assumption 1. Stock price is Birr 72
• Since the stock price is greater than the exercise
/strike price on the expiration data, exercising the
right will increase the total loss. That is, exercising
the right will increase the total loss to Birr 900.
• But if an investor does not exercise his right, his net
loss will only be the transaction cost, i.e. Birr 700.
Thus, an investor shall not exercise his right. So loss
will be Br 700.
144
Assumption 2.Stock price is Birr 61
• Since the stock price is less than the exercise /strike
price on the expiration date, an investor can buy 100
share of Y-company for Birr 61 /share and sell the same
share for Birr 70 under the terms of the put option.
As a result the net gain is Birr 200.
Total cost = (Birr 61/share X 100 share) + (Birr 7/share
X 100 share) = Birr 6100 + 700 = Br. 6,800
Total revenue= Birr 70/share X 100 share = $ 7,000
Net gain = 7,000 – 6,800 = Birr 200
Thus purchase of a put option is hoping that the price of
underlying asset will decrease
145
Graphical presentation
Put Option
Profits
30
20
12
63
0
40 60 70 80 90 100
-7 Price of
stocks
146
Option Position
Every option contract has two sides:
1. Long position: This position is taken by an
investor who has bought the position.
2. Short position: it is taken by an investor who has
sold or written the option.
The writer of an option receives cash up front,
but has potential liabilities latter.
Therefore, the writer’s profit or loss is the
reverse of that for the purchaser of the option.
147
Swap
148
Interest rate swap
It involves the exchange of interest payments.
It usually occurs when a person /firm needs fixed-rate
fund but can get a better deal on floating rate funds and
the other party needs floating rate fund but can get a
better deal on fixed rate funds.
The two counter-parties exchange the interest
payments and feel as if they are using the loan
150
Note that since the principals are the same /identical in size,
they are not exchanged. They are only notional.
Example; Suppose firm A needs fixed rate funds which are
available to him at the rate of 10.5% to be computed
annually, but it has access to cheaper floating rate funds
available to it at LIBOR + 0.3.
Firm B needs floating-rate funds available to it one-year
LIBOR but has access to cheaper fixed rate funds available
to it at the rate of 9.5% to be computed annually.
151
Assumption
– Both the principals are identical in size on maturity and
are in the same currency.
– Thus, the interest swap will take place in the following
stages;
Stage 1. Since firm A has access to floating-rate loan market,
it will borrow from floating rate loan market.
• Similarly, firm B having access to fixed rate loan market,
will borrow fixed-rate loan.
152
Cont’d
Firm A Firm B
153
Stage 2
Since both firms have not borrowed according to their choice, they
approach a swap dealer.
Since firm A needs fixed rate loan, the swap dealer asks him to pay
fixed rate interest to it (swap dealer) as if it has borrowed fixed rate
loans.
Thus, the fixed rate of interest payable through the swap dealer is
higher than what firm B has to pay to the lender in the fixed rate loan
market but lower than what firm A has to pay to the lender if it had
borrowed from the fixed-loan mkt. say 9.75%.
The swap dealer pays interest to firm B, 9.65% and firm B pays
interest 9.5% to the lender. 154
Firm A attracted to the swap dealer.
1. He uses the loan according to his own choice.
2. He has got a fixed rate of interest payable fund by it is lower
than what he had to pay for borrowing from the fixed rate
loan mkt.
155
Stage II
9.5%
Fixed Rate
Loan Market
LIBOR +0.3% Floating Rate
Loan Market
9.75% 9.65%
Swap
Firm A Firm B
LIBOR Dealer LIBOR
156
Stage 3.
At the maturity date, the two firms repay the loan. Firm
A repays the floating rate loan and firm B repays fixed
rate loan. Principal
Fixed Rate
Loan Market
Firm A Firm B
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Firm A Cost of Borrowing
158
Firm B cost of Borrowing
Cost of fixed rate borrowing ……….… 9.50%
Less: fixed rate received …………….. 9.65
Net cost differential ………………….. -0.15%
Add: floating rate ……………………. LIBOR
Total cost of borrowing …………. LIBRO - 0.15%
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Foreign Exchange Market
Introduction
Different countries have different currencies and the
settlement of all business transactions with in a country is
done in the local currency.
The foreign exchange market provides a forum where the
currency of one country is traded for the currency of another
country.
Example, suppose an Ethiopian importer import goods from
the USA and has to make payments in US Dollars. To do so,
an Ethiopian importer has to purchase US Dollars in the
foreign exchange market and pay to US firm.
Therefore, the foreign exchange market is a market where
foreign currencies are bought and sold.
161
Major Participants
162
Cont’
163
Foreign Exchange Rates
164
Cont’d
165
Cont’d
166
Foreign Exchange Risk
From the perspective of an Ethiopian investor, the cash
flows of assets denominated in a foreign currency expose
the investor to uncertainty as to the cash flow in Ethiopian
Birr.
The actual Ethiopian Birr that the investor gets depend on
the exchange rate between Ethiopian Birr and foreign
currency, if there is a direct conversion. Otherwise between
foreign currency and hard currency and again between hard
currency and Ethiopian Birr.
Therefore, if the foreign currency depreciates (declines in
value) relative to hard currency, the birr value of the cash
flows will be proportionately less. This referred to as
foreign exchange risk.
167
Spot Market Vs Forward market
168
Spot Market
In the spot market, currencies are traded for
immediate delivery at a rate existing on the day of
transaction.
It is a market for settlement within two business days.
The spot rate is applicable to the purchase and sell of
foreign exchange on an immediate delivery basis.
Example. Suppose that Ethiopia Airlines has bought
an air craft from USA. It is to convert Ethiopian Birr
in to USD. In case the terms of payment are
immediate, Ethiopia airlines is to arrange the
spontaneous purchase of the required sum of USD at
the spot rate from the spot market.
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Currency arbitrage in the spot market
With fast development in the telecommunication system,
rates are expected to be uniform in different foreign
exchange markets.
Nevertheless, inconsistency exists at times. As a result, the
arbitrage takes advantage of the inconsistency and garner
profits by buying and selling of currencies.
That means, they buy a particular currency at a cheaper rate
in one market and sell it at higher rate in the other market.
This process is known as currency arbitrage.
170
Cont’d
171
Speculation in Spot market
Speculation occurs when the speculator anticipates a
change in the value of a currency, especially an
appreciation in the value of foreign currency.
Example: suppose that the exchange rate today is Birr
19.75/1USD. The speculator anticipates this rate to become Birr
20.50/1USD with in the coming two months. As a result, he will
buy and hold a USD for two months. When the target exchange
rate is reached, he will sell the USD and earn a profit of Birr
0.75/USD.
172
Forward Market
173
One of the parties to a forward contact assumes a
long position and agrees to buy the underlying asset
on a certain specified future date for a certain
specified price.
[
174
• Example, assume that, on August 16, 2014 G.C., an
Ethiopian airline purchases an aircraft $10 million from
US firm and agrees to make payment after 90 days, as
per the credit terms from the US firm. Ethiopian Airline
has two options:
1. On the due date of payment (after 3 months), make
purchase of the due sum of USD from the spot market, at
the spot rate prevailing at the point of time, and then
remit the payment of the US firm.
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2. In order to avoid the uncertainty of the exchange
rate three months from now, Ethiopian airline is to
purchase the required USD in the forward market at
the forward exchange rate that is decided at the time
of the agreement.
The agreed forward rate is valid for settlement
irrespective of the actual spot rate on the date of
maturity of the forward contract (i.e., 90 days from
today).
In this case, the delivery of USD and the payment
of Ethiopian Birr will be taken place 90 days latter,
on the date of settlement.
Thus, Ethiopian airline has eliminated exchange
risk by entering in to a forward contract.
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Spot and forward quotes for Birr/USD, exchange rate on
August 16, 2014 G.C.
177
The amount of Birr required by Ethiopian
Airline = $10 million × Birr 20.45/USD = Birr
204.5 million
Thus, Ethiopian Airlines is sure that it will
require Birr 204.5 million in order to settle its
transaction with US firm.
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Thank you!
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