John Loucks: Slides Prepared by

Slides Prepared by
John Loucks
St. Edward’s University
Slides Modified by
Danny Cho
Brock University
© 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. Slide 1

Chapter 3, Part B
Continuous Probability Distributions
 Uniform Probability Distribution
 Normal Probability Distribution
 Exponential Probability Distribution
Uniform f (x) Exponential

f (x)
f (x)
Normal
x x

Continuous Random Variables
 Examples of continuous random variables include the

following:
• The number of ounces of soup placed in a can
labeled “8 ounces”
• The flight time of an airplane traveling from
Chicago to New York
• The lifetime of the picture tube in a new television
set
• The drilling depth required to reach oil in an
offshore drilling operation

 A continuous random variable can assume any value

in an interval on the real line or in a collection of
intervals.
 It is not possible to talk about the probability of the

random variable for a particular value.
 Instead, we talk about the probability of the random

variable for values in a range or a given interval.

 The probability of the random variable assuming a

value within some given interval from x1 to x2 is
defined to be the area under the graph of the
probability density function between x1 and x2.
f (x) Exponential
Uniform
f (x)
f (x)
Normal
x
x x11 xx1122 x22
x11 x22
x
x11 x22

Uniform Probability Distribution
 A random variable is uniformly distributed

whenever the probability is proportional to the
interval’s length.
 The uniform probability density function is:
ff (x)
(x) == 1/(b
1/(b –– a)
a) for
for aa << xx << bb
== 00 elsewhere
elsewhere
where: a = smallest value the variable can assume

b = largest value the variable can assume

Uniform Probability Distribution
 Expected Value of x
E(x)
E(x) == (a
(a ++ b)/2
b)/2
 Variance of x
Var(x)
Var(x) = (b - a) /12
= (b - a) 22
/12

Example: Slater's Buffet

Slater customers are charged
for the amount of salad they take.
Sampling suggests that the
amount of salad taken is
uniformly distributed
between 5 ounces and 15 ounces.

 Uniform Probability Density Function
f(x)
f(x) == 1/10
1/10 for
for 55 << xx << 15
15
== 00 elsewhere
elsewhere
where:
x = salad plate filling weight


for Salad Plate Filling Weight
f(x)
1/10
x
5 10 15
Salad Weight (oz.)

What is the probability that a customer

will take between 12 and 15 ounces of salad?
f(x)
P(12 < x < 15) = (1/10)(3) = .3

1/10
x
5 10 12 15
Salad Weight (oz.)

Example: Flight Time

Let x denote the flight time of an airplane traveling
from Chicago to New York. Assume that the
minimum time is 2 hours and that the maximum time
is 2 hours 20 minutes.
Assume that sufficient actual flight data are
available to conclude that the probability of a flight
time between 120 and 121 minutes is the same as the
probability of a flight time within any other 1-minute
interval up to and including 140 minutes.

 Uniform Probability Density Function
f(x) = 1/20 for 120 < x < 140

=0 elsewhere
where:
x = flight time in minutes

 Uniform Probability Distribution for Flight Time
f(x)
1/20
x
120 130 140
Flight Time (mins.)

What is the probability that a flight will take

between 135 and 140 minutes?
f(x)
P(135 < x < 140) = (1/20)(5) = .25

1/20
x
120 130 135 140
Flight Time (mins.)

What is the probability that a flight will take

between 124 and 136 minutes?
f(x)
P(124 < x < 136) = (1/20)(12) = .6

1/20
x
120 124 130 136 140
Flight Time (mins.)

Normal Probability Distribution
 The normal probability distribution is the most

important distribution for describing a continuous
random variable.
 It is widely used in statistical inference.

 It has been used in a wide variety of applications:
Heights
Heights Scientific
Scientific
of
ofpeople
people measurements
measurements
(e.g.,
(e.g., 100m
100m run)
run)

 It has been used in a wide variety of applications:
Midterm
Midtermtest
test Amounts
Amounts of of
scores
scores rainfall
rainfall in
in July
July
for
forMBAB
MBAB5P025P02

 Normal Probability Density Function
1  ( x   )2 /2 2
f (x)  e
 2
where:
 = mean
 = standard deviation
 = 3.14159
e = 2.71828

 Characteristics
The
The distribution
distribution is
is symmetric,
symmetric, and
and is
is bell-shaped.
bell-shaped.

 Characteristics
The
The entire
entire family
family of
of normal
normal probability
probability
distributions
distributions is
is defined
defined by
by its mean mm and
its mean and its
its
standard deviation ss ..
standard deviation
Standard Deviation s
x
Mean m

 Characteristics
The
The highest
highest point
point onon the
the normal
normal curve
curve is
is at
at the
the
mean,
mean, which
which is
is also
also the
the median
median and
and mode.
mode.

 Characteristics
The
The mean
mean can
can be
be any
any numerical
numerical value:
value: negative,
negative,
zero,
zero, or
or positive.
positive.
x
-10 0 20

 Characteristics
The
The standard
standard deviation
deviation determines
determines thethe width
width of
of the
the
curve:
curve: larger
larger values
values result
result in
in wider,
wider, flatter
flatter curves.
curves.
s = 15
s = 25

 Characteristics
Probabilities
Probabilities forfor the
the normal
normal random
random variable
variable are
are
given
given by by areas
areas under
under the the curve.
curve. TheThe total
total area
area
under
under the the curve
curve is
is 11 (.5
(.5 to
to the
the left
left of
of the
the mean
mean andand
.5
.5 to
to the
the right).
right).
.5 .5
x

 Characteristics
68.26%
68.26% of
of values
values of
of aa normal
normal random
random variable
variable
are within +/-
are within +/- 11 standard
standard deviation
deviation ofof its
its mean.
mean.
95.44%
95.44% of
of values
values ofof aa normal
normal random
random variable
variable
are within +/-
standard deviations
deviations of
of its
its mean.
mean.
99.72%
99.72% of
of values
values ofof aa normal
normal random
random variable
variable
are within +/-
standard deviations
deviations of
of its
its mean.
mean.

 Characteristics
99.72%
95.44%
68.26%
m
x
m – 3s m – 1s m + 1s m + 3s
m – 2s m + 2s
Standard Normal Probability Distribution
AArandom
randomvariable
variablehaving
havingaanormal
normaldistribution
distribution
with
withaamean
meanof of00and
andaastandard
standarddeviation
deviationofof11isis
said
saidto
tohave
haveaastandard
standardnormal
normalprobability
probability
distribution.
distribution.

The
The letter
letter zz is
is used
used to
to designate
designate the
the standard
standard
normal
normal random
random variable.
variable.
s= 1
z
0

Normal vs. Standard Normal Probability Distribution
Normal
Standard Deviation s
x
m
Standard Normal
s= 1
z
0
 Converting to the Standard Normal Distribution
x
z

We can think of z as a measure of the number of

standard deviations x is from .

Example: Pep Zone
 Standard Normal Probability Distribution

Pep Zone sells auto parts and supplies
including a popular multi-grade motor
oil. When the stock of this oil drops to Pep
20 gallons, a replenishment order is Zone
placed. 5w-20
Motor Oil

Example: Pep Zone
Pep
Zone
5w-20
Motor Oil

The store manager is concerned that sales are
being lost due to stockouts while waiting for an
order. It has been determined that demand during
replenishment leadtime is normally distributed with
a mean of 15 gallons and a standard deviation of 6
gallons.
The manager would like to know the probability

of a stockout, i.e., P(x > 20).

Example: Pep Zone
Pep
Zone
5w-20
Motor Oil
 Solving for the Stockout Probability
Step
Step 1:
1: Convert
Convert xx to
to the
the standard
standard normal
normal distribution.
distribution.
(x -- )/
zz == (x )/
== (20
(20 -- 15)/6
15)/6
== .83
.83
Step
Step 2:
2: Find
Find the
the area
area under
under the
the standard
standard normal
normal
curve
curve between
between the
the mean
mean and
and zz == .83.
.83.
see
see next
next slide
slide

Example: Pep Zone
Pep
Zone
5w-20
Motor Oil
 Probability Table for the

Standard Normal Distribution (Table 3.9 on page 84)
z .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09
. . . . . . . . . . .
.5 .6915 .6950 .6985 .7019 .7054 .7088 .7123 .7157 .7190 .7224
.6 .7257 .7291 .7324 .7357 .7389 .7422 .7454 .7486 .7517 .7549
.7 .7580 .7611 .7642 .7673 .7704 .7734 .7764 .7794 .7823 .7852
.8 .7881 .7910 .7939 .7967 .7995 .8023 .8051 .8078 .8106 .8133
.9 .8159 .8186 .8212 .8238 .8264 .8289 .8315 .8340 .8365 .8389
. . . . . . . . . . .
P(-∞ < z < .83)

Example: Pep Zone
Pep
Zone
5w-20
Motor Oil
Step
Step 3:
3: Compute
Compute the the area
area under
under the the standard
standard normal
normal
curve
curve to
to the
the right
right of
of zz == .83.
.83.
P(z
P(z >> .83)
.83) == 11 –– P(-∞
P(-∞ << zz << .83)
.83)
== 11 -- .7967
.7967
== .2033
.2033
Probability
of a stockout P(x > 20)

Example: Pep Zone
Pep
Zone
5w-20
Motor Oil
Area = 1 - .7967
Area = .7967
= .2033
z
0 .83

Example: Pep Zone
Pep
Zone
5w-20
Motor Oil

If the manager of Pep Zone wants the probability
of a stockout to be no more than .05, what should the
reorder point be?

Example: Pep Zone
Pep
Zone
5w-20
Motor Oil
 Solving for the Reorder Point
Area = .9500
Area = .0500
z
0 z.05

Example: Pep Zone
Pep
Zone
5w-20
Motor Oil

Step
Step 1:1: Find
Find the
the z-value
z-value that
that cuts
cuts off
off an
an area
area of
of .05
.05
in
in the
the right
right tail
tail of
of the
the standard
standard normal
normal
distribution.
distribution.
z .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09
. . . . . . . . . . .
1.5 .9332 .9345 .9357 .9370 .9382 .9394 .9406 .9418 .9429 .9441
1.6 .9452 .9463 .9474 .9484 .9495 .9505 .9515 .9525 .9535 .9545
1.7 .9554 .9564 .9573 .9582 .9591 .9599 .9608 .9616 .9625 .9633
1.8 .9641 .9649 .9656 .9664 .9671 .9678 .9686 .9693 .9699 .9706
1.9 .9713 .9719 .9726 .9732 .9738 .9744 .9750 .9756 .9761 .9767
We look up the area
. . . . . (1 - ..05 = .95)
. . . . .

Example: Pep Zone
Pep
Zone
5w-20
Motor Oil
Step
Step 2:
2: Convert
Convert zz.05 to the corresponding value of x.
.05 to the corresponding value of x.
xx ==  ++ zz.05 
.05
 == 15
15 ++ 1.645(6)
1.645(6)
== 24.87
24.87 or or 25
25
A reorder point of 25 gallons will place the probability

of a stockout during leadtime at (slightly less than) .05.

Example: Pep Zone
Pep
Zone
5w-20
Motor Oil

By raising the reorder point from 20 gallons to
25 gallons on hand, the probability of a stockout
decreases from about .20 to .05.
This is a significant decrease in the chance that Pep

Zone will be out of stock and unable to meet a customer’s
desire to make a purchase. This is a good part.
On the other hand, what could be potential problems

when Pep Zone increases the reorder point from 20
to 25 gallons?

Exponential Probability Distribution
 The exponential probability distribution is useful in

describing the time it takes to complete a task.
 The exponential random variables can be used to
describe:
Time
Time between
between Time
Timerequired
required Distance
Distance between
between
vehicle
vehicle arrivals
arrivals to
tocomplete
complete major
major defects
defects
at
at aa toll
toll booth
booth aaquestionnaire
questionnaire in
in aa highway
highway
SLOW

 Density Function
1  x /
f ( x)  e for x > 0,  > 0

where:  = mean time between two occurrences

e = 2.71828

 Cumulative Probabilities
P ( x  x 0 )  1  e  xo / 
where:
x0 = some specific value of x

Example: Al’s Full-Service Pump

The time between arrivals of cars
at Al’s full-service gas pump follows
an exponential probability distribution
with a mean time between arrivals of
3 minutes. Al would like to know the
probability that the time between two successive
arrivals will be 2 minutes or less.

Example: Al’s Full-Service Pump
f(x)
P(x
P(x << 2)
2) == 11 -- ee-x-x /µ/µ == 11 -- 2.71828
00 2.71828-2/3
-2/3
.4 == 11 -- .5134.5134 == .4866.4866
.3
.2
.1
x
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Time Between Successive Arrivals (mins.)

Relationship between the Poisson
and Exponential Distributions
The Poisson distribution

provides an appropriate description
of the number of occurrences
per interval
The Exponential distribution

provides an appropriate description
of the length of the interval
between occurrences

End of Chapter 3, Part B

John Loucks: Slides Prepared by

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

John Loucks: Slides Prepared by

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Slides Prepared by

© 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. Slide 1

Uniform f (x) Exponential

© 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. Slide 2

 Examples of continuous random variables include the

© 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. Slide 3

 A continuous random variable can assume any value

 It is not possible to talk about the probability of the

 Instead, we talk about the probability of the random

© 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. Slide 4

 The probability of the random variable assuming a

© 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. Slide 5

 A random variable is uniformly distributed

where: a = smallest value the variable can assume

© 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. Slide 6

© 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. Slide 7

 Uniform Probability Distribution

© 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. Slide 8

 Uniform Probability Density Function

© 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. Slide 9

 Uniform Probability Distribution

© 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. Slide 10

What is the probability that a customer

P(12 < x < 15) = (1/10)(3) = .3

© 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. Slide 11

 Uniform Probability Distribution

© 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. Slide 12

 Uniform Probability Density Function

f(x) = 1/20 for 120 < x < 140

© 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. Slide 13

 Uniform Probability Distribution for Flight Time

© 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. Slide 14

What is the probability that a flight will take

P(135 < x < 140) = (1/20)(5) = .25

© 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. Slide 15

What is the probability that a flight will take

P(124 < x < 136) = (1/20)(12) = .6

© 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. Slide 16

 The normal probability distribution is the most

 It is widely used in statistical inference.

© 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. Slide 17

 It has been used in a wide variety of applications:

© 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. Slide 18

 It has been used in a wide variety of applications:

© 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. Slide 19

 Normal Probability Density Function

© 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. Slide 20

© 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. Slide 21

© 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. Slide 22

© 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. Slide 23

© 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. Slide 24

© 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. Slide 25

© 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. Slide 26

© 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. Slide 27

© 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. Slide 29

© 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. Slide 30

 Converting to the Standard Normal Distribution

We can think of z as a measure of the number of

© 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. Slide 32

 Standard Normal Probability Distribution

© 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. Slide 33

 Standard Normal Probability Distribution

The manager would like to know the probability