Risk & Hazard Management in Energy sector (ENEC 552)

Sitotaw Haile
Sitotaw Haile
(PhD)
1
 Outline of the presentation

Introduction
Definition Risks
Formation of Risk

Definition Hazards
Types of hazards
Disaster management framework

Disaster management policy

Disaster management practices
2
Conclusion
 Disaster
• A sudden and unexpected event
causing great loss of life and resources

Dire Dawa flooding

3
 UN International Frameworks
Introduction to Disaster risk management

‘The steady growth of disaster risk, including the increase of

people and assets exposed, combined with the lessons learned
from past disasters, indicates the need to further strengthen
disaster preparedness for response, take action in anticipation
of events, integrate disaster risk reduction in response
preparedness and ensure that capacities are in place for
effective response and recovery at all levels…’

UN SFDRR 2015
 Definition of Disaster risk
1. What is Risk
• The probability of suffering damage (to life, property, economic
disruptions and environment) from a hazard for a given area and
reference period. Risk is the product of hazard and vulnerability
•It is the possibility of suffering harm or loss

5
 What is disaster risk?

Risk =
[Hazard + Vulnerability + Exposure] – [Adaptive
Capacity]
6
ELEMENTS OF RISK

HAZARDS EXPOSURE

RISK

VULNERABILITY Adaptive capacity

 What is Disaster
• Disaster – “Accidental or uncontrollable events, actual or threatened, that
are concentrated in time and space, in which a society, or a relatively self-
sufficient subdivision of a society, undergoes severe danger, and incurs
such losses to its members and physical appurtenances that the social
structure is disrupted and the fulfillment of all or some of the essential
functions of the society is prevented” (Fritz 1961, 655).
• Disaster – “Deadly, destructive and disruptive events that occur when a
hazard interacts (or multiple hazards interact) with human vulnerability”
(McEntire 2007, 2).
 What is Disaster…
• Risk – “the probability of an event or condition occurring” (Mileti
1999)
• Also related to the potential for loss.
• 95% of national disaster deaths occur among 66% of the poorest
countries
• From 1965-1992 more than 90% of all disaster victims lived in Asia
and Africa
Disasters are on Rise
Disasters affect EVERYONE
But they impact poor and vulnerable the most

LOW INCOME COUNTRIES

ACCOUNT ONLY FOR 9% OF THE
WORLDS DISASTERS, BUT ……

Low Income Countries

Others

48%
OF
FATALIITIES
 Impacts of disaster risk in risie
• Frequency and magnitude of losses
from natural disasters have been
constantly increasing
• Losses from recent natural disasters
have been a great deal higher than
those that occurred earlier in time
• This trend is expected to continue
because of an increasing higher
concentration of population and
property in areas susceptible to
natural hazards

Losses from major natural disasters world-wide

from 1950-2006 (in 2006 $ values)
(Courtesy: NatCatSERVICE, Geo Risks Research, Munich Re)
DISASTER IMPACTS (2005 – 2014)
FINANCIAL DAMAGES (details)
 What is vulnerability
• Vulnerability - “the measure of the capacity to weather, resist, or recover
from the impacts of a hazard in the long term as well as in the short term”
(Mileti 1999, 106).
• Vulnerability describes the degree to which an area, people, physical
structures or economic assets are exposed to loss, injury or damage caused
by the impact of the hazard (Dandapat & Panda, 2017, Erena, 2019)
• Vulnerability is defined as a degree to which a natural or manmade system
is exposed to, sensitive to, and/or unable to cope with adverse effects of
hazards (IPCC, 2001)
• Vulnerability is a potential for loss with two sides: external side of shocks
to which a system exposed an internal side which represent inability to
 Vulnerability…
• The extent and level of flood induced damage depends on the
characteristics of the affected people and infrastructure condition
of the area (Choudhury et al., 2015; Kuhlicke et al., 2011)
• Different groups within a given community may have the same
level of exposure to a natural hazard, but varying consequences
resulted from the diverging capacities and abilities of groups to
handle the impacts of the hazard and the characteristics of a people
and their situation that influence their capacity to predict, cope
with, resist and recover from the impact of a natural hazard
(Wisner et al., 2004, Erena, 2019)
 Vulnerability…

• Vulnerability is expected to happen under certain conditions of exposure,

susceptibility and resilience (Fuchs et al., 2011)
• Susceptibility is described as the potential of a system to be harmed by a
hazardous event such as flooding, caused due to fragility, relative social
or economic weaknesses or disadvantageous conditions (Cardona, 2003).
• Exposure represents values that are present at the location where hazard
can occur. Ex. human being, properties, infrastructure, cultural heritage
…..
• Resilience is the ability of a system to adjust to changes or threats, to
avoid, mitigate or absorb potential damage, to cope with the
consequences without loss or to even take advantage of opportunities
 Exposure

• Exposure is explained as the degree of extrinsic factors exposed to

significant variations, sensitivity as the degree of intrinsic factors
affected by dangerous phenomena likely to suffer harm, and lack of
coping mechanisms as limitations and incapacity of a system to
adapt and reduce adverse effects of experienced hazards
• The situation of people, infrastructure, housing, production
capacities&other tangible human assets located in hazard-prone area
• Exposure is defined as “the predisposition of a system/ its elements
to be affected by hazard due to its location in the hazard area
• Exposure to hazard, distribution of hazardous condition, humans
occupying hazard zones, impacts of hazard events…
 Resilience/Adaptive capacity
• The ability of the system, community or society exposed to hazard to
resist, absorb, accommodate, adapt to, transform and recover from
the effects of hazard in a timely and efficient manner, including
through the preservation and restoration of its essential basic
structures and functions through risk management
• Resilience is the ability of a system to adjust to changes or threats, to
avoid, mitigate or absorb potential damage, to cope with the
consequences without loss or to even take advantage of opportunities
(IPCC, 2001)
 Hazard
Definition
Hazard: A possible source of danger that may cause; injury, death,
harm
A natural hazard is a natural phenomenon that can potentially
trigger a disaster. Example: earthquakes, landslides, floods, volcanic
eruptions, tsunamis, drought
Human systems developed-caused by human activity,
infrastructure, transportation, etc
These physical events/ occurrences of hazards may not necessarily
result in disaster
Ethiopia is countered by a wide range of natural and human induced
 Hazard
Definition
Hazard: is any potential or actual threat to the wellbeing of people,
machinery or environment

Electrical hazard safety means:

taking precautions to identify and control electrical hazards
 Hazard

Electrical hazard awareness

 Hazard

Because failing to take the necessary precautions can lead to:

• injury or death

• fire or property damage

 Hazard….
Hazard
Hazards…..
 Earthquakes
 Tsunami
 Landslides
 Cyclones
 Floods
 Fire
 Hazard….

We cannot avoid hazards but we can prevent them from

becoming disasters
 Hazards….
Types of Hazards
There are five types of hazards

1. Hydro-meteorological hazards: drought, flood....

2. Geo-hazards: Earth quake, volcanoes, landslide, fissure…
3. Biological hazards: different kinds of diseases

4. Technological hazards: transportation accident, fire……

5. Socio-economic hazards: policy, market…….
 Global Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007)

Extreme
Extreme Temp.
Temp. 5% Flood
Windstorm
4% 10%
Drought 15%
5% Flood
33%
Epidemic,
insects
Earthquake
13% 16%

Tsunami
0,4% Earthquake Drought Volcano
8% 30% Tsunami 1%
Slides 12%
Volcano Windstorm 5% Epidemic,
1,6% 27% insects
Wild Fires 10%
3%

Tsunami
Loss of life
Number of 1%
events Earthquake Drought
22% 5%

Extreme
Temp.
2%
Flood
25%
Windstorm Economic
43%
losses Source: EM-DAT:
The OFDA/CRED
International
Disaster Database
Wild Fires
- www.em-dat.net
2%
- Université
90% of events, 70% of casualties and 75% of economic Catholique de
Louvain - Brussels

losses are related to hydro-meteorological hazards. - Belgiumc

Technological hazards

•Risks of energy Sector fall under technological hazard

•The UNISDR definition of technological hazards refers to hazards
that stem from technological or industrial conditions.
• This includes accidents, dangerous procedures, infrastructure
deficiencies, and specific human activities that can cause death,
injury, disease, or other health impacts, as well as jeopardize
property, livelihood, and services, provoke social or economic
disorder, and cause environmental damage.
•Examples of technological hazards include industrial pollution,
nuclear radiation, toxic wastes, dam failures, transport accidents,
factory explosions, fires, and chemical spills.
3. Technological hazards…….
•Technological hazards can also result directly from the
consequences of an event related to natural hazards, as in the case
of the explosions of two nuclear reactors with the associated hazards
of radioactivity in Fukushima, Japan, following a tsunami that
accompanied an earthquake
•Developing countries do not realise the significant damage and loss
(direct and indirect) that can be caused; especially less awareness on
natural hazards triggering technological disasters.
soil and water contamination
air pollution
occupational disease
life-style disease
3. Technological hazards…….
3. Technological hazards…….
3. Technological hazards…….

Arsenic poisoning
 Electrical Hazards
BE SAFE:
• Burns
• Electrocution
• Shock
• Arc flash/arc blast
• Fire
• Explosions
 Electrical Hazards
Burns:
• Most common shock-related injury
• Three types of electrical burns:
– Electrical
– Arc flash
– Thermal contact

Source: OSHA
 Electrical Hazards
Electrocution:
• Is fatal
• Meaning: to kill with electrical shock
• Results when a human is exposed to a lethal
amount of electrical energy
 Electrical Hazards
Shock:
• Body becomes part
of electrical circuit
• Reflex response to
passage of electric Source: OSHA

current through the body

 Electrical Hazards
Arc Flash/Arc Blast
• Arc flash
– Sudden release of electrical energy through air
when a high-voltage gap exists and there is a
breakdown between conductors
– Gives off thermal radiation (heat) and bright,
intense light that can cause burns
– Temperatures as high as 35,000°F
 Electrical Hazards
• Arc blast – high-voltage arcs can also
produce considerable pressure waves by
rapidly heating the air and creating a blast
 Electrical Hazards
Fire:
• Most result from problems with "fixed
wiring”
• Problems with cords, plugs, receptacles, and
switches also cause electrical fires
 Electrical Hazards
Explosions:
• Occur when electricity ignites explosive
mixture of material in the air
• Note:
– Electricity is source of these hazards
– All hazards are of equal importance
– Lesson focuses on eliminating electrical hazards
Principals of Risk Management
Risk management can be defined as:

The eradication or minimisation of the

adverse affects of risks to which an
organisation is exposed.
 Stages in Risk Management

• Identifying the hazards.

• Evaluating the associated risks.
• Controlling the risks
 Stages in Risk Management

RISK MANAGEMENT

RISK REDUCTION
RISK ASSESSMENT
Activity Option Analysis Implementation
Characterisation


 Monitoring
Hazard Identification


Decision Making Audit or Review
Risk Estimation

RISK EVALUATION
RISK ANALYSIS
 Stages in Risk Management
Regulation 3(1) of the ‘Management of Health and Safety at Work
Regulations 1992 states:-‘Every Employer shall make a suitable and
efficient assessment of:-
a) The risks to the health and safety of his employees to which they are
exposed whilst they are at work.
b) The risks to the health and safety of persons not in his employment
arising out of or in connection with the conduct by him or his
undertaking;
For the purpose of identifying the measures he needs to take to comply
with the requirements and prohibitions imposed on him by or under the
 Stages in Risk Management

Risk assessment can be a

‘very straightforward process based on judgement
requiring no specialist skills or complicated
techniques.’

This approach is commonly known as qualitative or

subjective risk assessment
 Major Hazards
• Major hazards associated with complex chemical
or nuclear plants, may ‘warrant the need of such
techniques as Quantitative Risk Assessment’.
• In Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) a
numerical estimate is made of the probability that
a defined harm will result from the occurrence of
a particular event.
 The Risk Management Process

Hazard Identification

Hazard :
The potential to cause harm. Harm including ill
health and injury, damage to property, plant,
products or the environment, production losses or
increased liabilities.
 Assessing the Risks
Quantitative risk assessment
• Commonly used in the high technology
industries
• QRA tends to deal with the avoidance of
low probability events with serious
consequences to the plant and the
surrounding environment.
 Controlling Risk

• Risk Avoidance – This strategy involves a conscious

decision on the part of the organisation to avoid
completely a particular risk by discontinuing the operation
producing the risk e.g. the replacing a hazardous chemical
by one with less or no risk potential.
• Risk Retention – The risk is retained in the organisation
where any consequent loss is financed by the company.
There are two aspects to consider here, risk retention with
knowledge and risk retention without knowledge.
 Controlling Risk

• Risk Transfer – This refers to the legal assignment of the

costs of certain potential losses from one party to another.
The most common way is by insurance.
• Risk Reduction – Here the risks are systematically reduced
through control measures, according to the hierarchy of risk
control described in earlier sections.