Problem Situation

Definition
• The problem situation is the context
within which the problem occurs.
• It is the sum or aggregate of all
aspects that can or may affect or
shape the problem or issue of
concern.
• The problem situation is the context in which
a problem is embedded. Most problem
situations involve a collection of
interconnected issues, each of which could
become the focus for analysis. Seeing a
problem within its full context is essential for
correctly defining the problem.
The Issue-Problem Situation
 Elements of a Problem
1. Owner
2. the decision maker
3. the decision maker’s objectives
4. the associated decision criterion
5. the performance measure
6. the control inputs or alternative courses of
action
7. The context in which the problem occurs
 Contoh Situasi Problem
• The owner may have become concerned about the firm’s
decrease in profitability over recent times
• The decision maker is The decision maker is the sawmill
owner–manager. His objective is to achieve a satisfactory
return on his investment in the firm.
• Decision criterion used for judging whether or not the
decision maker’s objective has been achieved is ‘the rate of
return on the owner’s investment reaches at least 18%
before taxes’, a rate considered satisfactory by the owner.
• measure of performance is the ratio of net profit over the
owner’s investment
• Any alternative course of action:
– combination of the type and quantities of logs to
purchase,
– the type and quantities of products to produce,
– the best rules for processing logs into finished
products,
• reaches or exceeds 18% satisfies the criterion
and is a solution
• The alternative decision criterion:
– maximize annual profit’,
• the measure of performance:
– annual level of profit being
– has a higher profit, the criterion is satisfied
 The context of the problem
• is all aspects that directly or indirectly affect
the measure of performance
• the decision maker has no immediate control
or which are taken as ‘givens’:
– current location of the firm,
– its potential sources of raw materials,
– the demand for its products
 Complexities of Problems
• there are multiple decision makers who may have
different world views and who may see the problem
situation differently
• may have potentially conflicting objectives: conflicts
can usually only be resolved by a compromise.
• problem structuring methods may help bring
understanding about the problem situation that will
allow agreement on a choice of action, even if no
consensus can be reached on objectives
 WHAT IE HAS TO DO
• PROBLEM IDENTFICATION
• GENERATE ALTERNATIVE
• KNOW THE STANDARD MODEL
• DECIDE PERFORMANCE CRITERIA
• CHOOSE THE BEST SOLUTION
• MAKE DECISION
• ANTICIPATE MANAGERIAL IMPLICATION
• ACTION
 TINDAKAN
SOFT SYSTEM
METHODOLOGY KEPUTUSAN

Masalah

SOLUSI

Sistem Nyata TEORI-TEORI

KEPUTUSAN

Pengambil
Keputusan
MODEL
TEORI-TEORI
KEPUTUSAN
 ANALYSIS OF SYSTEM
 FORMULATE THE PROBLEM
 DETERMINE PERFORMANCE CRITERIA
 IDENTIFICATION OF COMPONENTS MODEL
 DECISION VARIABEL
 CONSTRAIN
 PARAMETER
 LOGICAL RELATIONSHIP
 Roles of People In Systems
• The problem owners:
– the persons exercising control over certain aspects of the
problem situation,
– who have the ultimate power over all controllable aspects in
the wider system of interest
– who have been given limited powers to make decisions
• The problem users
– use the solution and/or execute the decisions approved by
the problem owners or decision makers
– have no authority to change the decision or initiate new
action
• The problem customers:
– the beneficiaries or victims of the
consequences of using the solution
– given no voice or have no means to affect
the analysis or its outcomes
• The problem analysts or solvers:
– analyse the problem and develop a solution
for approval by the problem owners.
 MIND MAP
• What is a mind map? When you think about something —
a phenomenon, an issue, or a problem — a host of
thoughts are evoked in your mind: things, aspects, and
concepts, including fears and aims, data and facts, and the
possible actions and reactions by yourself or other people
or entities involved and their consequences, both planned
and unplanned, desirable and undesirable, that result
from such actions, and the wider context or environment
of it all
• Mind maps can easily be used for capturing and
consolidating the thoughts and ideas of several people,
borrowing rules of brainstorming
 Rich Pictures

• Usually free form diagrams or “cartoons”

– Pictures provide an excellent way of sorting out and
prioritising complex problem areas.
– Pictures display relationships
- the way business functions work together.
• They may include elements of
– structure (e.g. the departments of a university)
– process (e.g. studying, examining),
– issues, concerns, or developments (e.g. implementing a
quality service).

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 Rich Picture
• rich picture is drawn simply to gain a better understanding of a
complex situation as a whole
• Draw a rich picture for what aspects and considerations have
relevance for deciding whether or not to study at a tertiary
educational institution or to complete your degree. Clearly show
your world view.
• The map or picture constitutes the first step towards analysing a
particular issue.
• It will firm up the choice of the problem to be studied. It will show
that problem within its complete context.
• This will help in selecting appropriate boundaries for the system
and the scope of the analysis.
 Rich Pictures
• In reviewing a situation or examining a system
the first task is to
– 'express' the problem situation i.e. to form a rich
picture.
– Rich picture = 'thorough, but non-judgmental
understanding’.
– N.B. Different rich pictures can be draw for the
same system/situation by different stakeholders.

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 Rich Pictures

observation
coffeetime yet?

boundary

idea!
crossed swords
=friction

• iconic representations - drawn together into a picture

which sums up the important elements of the
problem situation
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 Problem Definition
• The problem situation is the context in
which a problem is embedded. Most
problem situations involve a collection of
interconnected issues, each of which
could become the focus for analysis.
Seeing a problem within its full context is
essential for correctly defining the
problem.
 Guidelines for mind maps and rich pictures
1. Elements of structure: All aspects or components of the
situation that are relatively stable or change only very
slowly in the time frame implied in the situation.
2. Elements of process: All dynamic aspects that undergo
change or are in a state of flux, like activities that go on
within the structure, flow and processing of material or
information, and any decision making that goes on
3. Relationship between structure and process and
between processes: How does the structure affect or
condition processes? How does one process affect or
condition other processes? What things or aspects are
direct or indirect results of such relationships?
 human activity systems,should include
• ‘hard’ facts: physical structure and processes, data
records and their statistical interpretation, information
links, and anything on which there is widespread
agreement, or what might be labelled ‘objective’.
• ‘soft’ facts: opinions, gossip, hunches, interpersonal
relationships (friendships, hostilities, power, egos)
coming to the surface, perceived agendas and sacred
cows, synergies, and symbiotic relationships — or what
could broadly be called ‘the climate’ of the situation.
 the critical problem elements become

• Decision maker
• Objective
• Decision criterion
• Performance measure
• Alternative courses of action
• Boundaries for narrow system of interest
• Boundaries for wider system of interest
 Systems models and diagrams
• system model is a representation of all
essential parts of a system.
• a system is an abstract mental construct — a
personal conceptualization and hence not
independent of that person
• a model is another abstraction at a different
level
 MODEL
• Iconic: reproductions of physical objects,
usually to a different scale and with less detail
• Analogy: representations which substitute the
properties or features of what is modelled by
alternative means such that the model is able
to mimic whatever aspect of the real thing is
of interest to the modeller
• Symbolic: representations of the relationships
between various entities or concepts by
means of symbols
 SYMBOLIC MODELS
• the most common symbolic models are the
mental pictures we form in our minds or the
word descriptions that we make verbally or in
writing about something: an object, an entity,
an operation, a process, or an interconnected
set of abstract concepts, such as a logical
argumentation or a theory
• symbolic models — mental, diagrammatic, and
mathematical
 MATHEMATICAL MODELS
• The relationships between entities are
represented in the form of mathematical
• expressions, like functions, equations, and
inequalities
• contain various approximations and
simplifying assumptions, some of little
importance, but others of great consequence
• form of the approximations and
assumptions made:
– ensure that all stakeholders of the model are
aware of the model’s limitations
– highlight the need to study changes in system
behaviour by modifying these
approximations and assumptions if this is
possible
– ensure that, if the model is revisited at some
time in the future with a view to making
modifications
 A system description or
model consists of specifying
1. the transformation process(es) or activities of the
system
2. the boundary of the system, i.e. what is inside the
system — the narrow system of interest — and
what makes up its environment or the wider
system of interest
3. the components and subsystems of the narrow
system involved in the transformation process, and
the dynamic relationships, and stable
relationships or the structure
 ESSENTIAL PROPERTIES OF GOOD MODELS

1. Simple. Simple models are more easily

understood. A decision maker will
more easily follow the logic of a
spreadsheet than of a complicated
mathematical expression, which may do
little more than the computations
performed in a spreadsheet —
admittedly more elegantly
2. Complete. A model should include all
significant aspects of a problem situation that
affect the measure of performance. The
problem here is to know, before the model is
built, whether an aspect is likely to affect the
‘best’ solution in a significant way
3. Easy to manipulate and communicate with. It
should be easy for the analyst and/or the user
to prepare, update, and change the inputs and
get answers quickly and with a reasonable
amount of effort and resources.
4. Adaptive/robust. Usually, reasonable changes
in uncontrollable inputs and the structure of
the problem situation should not completely
invalidate the model. If they do, it should be
possible to adapt it to the new situation with
only relatively minor modifications
5. A model must be appropriate for the
situation studied. the model produces the
relevant outputs at the lowest possible cost
and in the time frame required for effective
decision making
6. A model has to produce information that is relevant
and appropriate for decision making: the output of
a model has to have direct bearing on the decision
process

If a model satisfies the last two properties this will

enhance the decision maker’s confidence in the
model and her or his willingness to use its answers.
Confidence in and credibility of the model are not
necessarily the result of a logical analysis of the
model or even of an understanding of how the
model works
 Causal loop diagrams
• describes the original problem situation: rich
picture, mind map or cognitive map
• Causal loop and influence diagrams particularly
insightful for bringing out the transformation
process of the system in terms of the structural
and causal relationships between system
components.
• depict cause-and-effect relationships between
various aspects, entities, or variables
 Influence diagrams
• They are particularly useful when using a process approach
• depict diagrammatically the system transformation process
• show the influence relationships between system
components, controllable and uncontrollable inputs, and
system outputs, thereby delineating the system boundaries
• help in exploring the complexity in a system
• very effective means
• to define a relevant system for the issue studied
LAMBANG-LAMBANG INFLUENCE DIAGRAM
 Tugas
• Buat diskripsi permasalahan
• Elemen problem (7 elemen)
• pemilik problem (owner, user, customer, analis)
• Mind map
• Rich picture
• Influence diagram
• Tahapan pemodelannya (model matematika, model
konseptual, model sistem dinamis)
• Model komprehensif (model usulan)
• Usulan solusi