Orgman Lesson 6
Orgman Lesson 6
Orgman Lesson 6
Quarter 1 – Lesson 6:
Planning Techniques and Tools in
Business Decision-making
PLANNING TECHNIQUES AND TOOLS AND THEIR
APPLICATIONS
Forecasting
According to Schermerhorn (2008), forecasting
is an attempt to predict what may happen in the
future. All planning types, without exception,
may use of forecasting. Forecasts used may be
either quantitative or qualitative.
Opinions of prominent economists are used in
qualitative forecasts while mathematical calculations
and statistical analyses of surveys/researches are used
in quantitative forecasts. These, however, are just aids
to planning and must be treated with caution. As the
name implies, forecasts are predictions and may be
inaccurate, at times, due to errors of human judgment.
CONTINGENCY PLANS
1. Timelines
The quality of decisions depends on how much
time has been devoted to making decisions.
Most of the time decision-makers must take
decisions in a limited time frame as instructed
by the management.
Due to the time limit, decision-makers are
not able to collect all the necessary
information that influences decisions and
are, also, not able to look for more
alternatives.
2. VALUE AND BELIEFS OF DECISION-MAKER
Certainty Conditions
These are ideal conditions in deciding
problems; these are situations in which a
manager can make precise decisions because
the results of all alternatives are known.
For example, bank interests are made known to
clients, so it is easier for business managers to
decide on the problem of where to deposit their
company’s funds. The bank which offers the
highest interest rate, therefore, is the obvious
choice of the manager when asked to decide.
Risk or Uncertainty Conditions
These are more common condition in deciding
problems. Risk or uncertainty conditions
compel the decision maker to do estimates
regarding the possible occurrence of certain
outcomes that may affect his or her chosen
solution to a problem.
Historical data from his or her own experiences
and other secondary information may be used as
bases for decisions to be made by the decision
maker under such risk conditions. For example,
a manager is asked to invest some of their
company funds in the money market offered by
a financial institution.
Risk factors must be considered, because of the
uncertainty conditions involved, before
deciding – whether to invest or not in the said
money market.
THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS ACCORDING TO ROBBINS
AND COULTER