Statistics Lecture 1
Statistics Lecture 1
Future Value
Present Value
Annuities
Rates of Return
Amortization
5-1
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Time Lines
0 1 2 3
I%
5-2
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Drawing Time Lines
100
0 1 2 3
I%
0 1 2 3
I%
-50 100 75 50
5-4
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Simple Interest Formulas
A = P + I = P + Prt
= P(1 + rt)
and is a linear function of t.
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Example
• A bank pays simple interest at the rate of 8% per year for certain
deposits.
• If a customer deposits $1000 and makes no withdrawals for 3 years, what
is the total amount on deposit at the end of three years?
• What is the interest earned in that period?
Solution
• Using the accumulated amount formula with P = 1000, r = 0.08,
and t = 3, we see that the total amount on deposit at the end of 3 years is
given by
A P(1 rt )
1000[1 (0.08)(3)] 1240
or $1240.
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Example
• A bank pays simple interest at the rate of 8% per year for certain deposits.
• If a customer deposits $1000 and makes no withdrawals for 3 years, what
is the total amount on deposit at the end of three years?
• What is the interest earned in that period?
Solution
• The interest earned over the three year period is given by
I Prt
1000(0.08)(3) 240
or $240.
© 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Applied Example: Trust Funds
A P (1 rt )
2000[1 (0.06)(10)] 3200
or $3200.
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Compound Interest
A1 P(1 rt )
1000[1 0.08(1)]
1000(1.08) 1080
or $1080.
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Compound Interest
A2 P (1 rt ) A1 (1 rt )
1000[1 0.08(1)][1 0.08(1)]
1000(1 0.08)2 1000(1.08)2 1166.40
or approximately $1166.40.
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Compound Interest
or approximately $1259.71.
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Compound Interest
• The formula
A P (1 r )t
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What is the future value (FV) of an initial $100
after 3 years, if I/YR = 10%?
0 1 2 3
10%
100 FV = ?
5-14
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Solving for FV:
The Step-by-Step and Formula Methods
• After 1 year:
FV1 = PV(1 + I) = $100(1.10) = $110.00
• After 2 years:
FV2 = PV(1 + I)2 = $100(1.10)2 = $121.00
• After 3 years:
FV3 = PV(1 + I)3 = $100(1.10)3 = $133.10
• After N years (general case):
FVN = PV(1 + I)N
5-15
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Solving for FV:
Calculator and Excel Methods
INPUTS 3 10 -100 0
N I/YR PV PMT FV
OUTPUT 133.10
Excel: =FV(rate,nper,pmt,pv,type)
5-16
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What is the present value (PV) of $100 due in
3 years, if I/YR = 10%?
0 1 2 3
10%
PV = ? 100
5-17
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Solving for PV:
The Formula Method
5-18
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Solving for PV:
Calculator and Excel Methods
INPUTS 3 10 0 100
N I/YR PV PMT FV
OUTPUT -75.13
Excel: =PV(rate,nper,pmt,fv,type)
5-19
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Solving for I: What annual interest rate would cause
$100 to grow to $125.97 in 3 years?
Excel: =RATE(nper,pmt,pv,fv,type,guess)
5-20
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Solving for N: If sales grow at 20% per year, how
long before sales double?
INPUTS 20 -1 0 2
N I/YR PV PMT FV
OUTPUT 3.8
EXCEL: =NPER(rate,pmt,pv,fv,type)
5-21
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What is the difference between an ordinary
annuity and an annuity due?
Ordinary Annuity
0 1 2 3
I%
Annuity Due
0 1 2 3
I%
5-22
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Solving for FV:
3-Year Ordinary Annuity of $100 at 10%
INPUTS 3 10 0 -100
N I/YR PV PMT FV
OUTPUT 331
Excel: =FV(rate,nper,pmt,pv,type)
Here type = 0.
5-23
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Solving for PV:
3-year Ordinary Annuity of $100 at 10%
INPUTS 3 10 100 0
N I/YR PV PMT FV
OUTPUT -248.69
Excel: =PV(rate,nper,pmt,fv,type)
Here type = 0.
5-24
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Solving for FV:
3-Year Annuity Due of $100 at 10%
BEGIN
INPUTS 3 10 0 -100
N I/YR PV PMT FV
OUTPUT 364.10
Excel: =FV(rate,nper,pmt,pv,type)
Here type = 1.
5-25
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Solving for PV:
3-Year Annuity Due of $100 at 10%
BEGIN
INPUTS 3 10 100 0
N I/YR PV PMT FV
OUTPUT -273.55
Excel: =PV(rate,nper,pmt,fv,type)
Here type = 1.
5-26
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What is the present value of a 5-year $100
ordinary annuity at 10%?
5-27
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What if it were a 10-year annuity? A 25-year
annuity? A perpetuity?
• 10-year annuity
– N = 10, I/YR = 10, PMT = -100, FV = 0; solve for PV =
$614.46.
• 25-year annuity
– N = 25, I/YR = 10, PMT = -100, FV = 0; solve for PV =
$907.70.
• Perpetuity
– PV = PMT/I = $100/0.1 = $1,000.
5-28
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The Power of Compound Interest
5-29
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Solving for FV: If she begins saving today, how much
will she have when she is 65?
INPUTS 45 12 0 -1095
N I/YR PV PMT FV
OUTPUT 1,487,262
Excel: =FV(.12,45,-1095,0,0)
5-30
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Solving for FV: If you don’t start saving until you are
40 years old, how much will you have at 65?
INPUTS 25 12 0 -1095
N I/YR PV PMT FV
OUTPUT 146,001
Excel: =FV(.12,25,-1095,0,0)
5-31
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Solving for PMT: How much must the 40-year old
deposit annually to catch the 20-year old?
INPUTS 25 12 0 1487262
N I/YR PV PMT FV
OUTPUT -11,154.42
Excel: =PMT(rate,nper,pv,fv,type)
=PMT(.12,25,0,1487262,0)
5-32
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What is the PV of this uneven cash flow stream?
0 1 2 3 4
10%
5-33
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Solving for PV:
Uneven Cash Flow Stream
5-34
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Will the FV of a lump sum be larger or smaller if
compounded more often, holding the stated I% constant?
100 133.10
Annually: FV3 = $100(1.10)3 = $133.10
0 1 2 3
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
5%
100 134.01
Semiannually: FV6 = $100(1.05)6 = $134.01
5-35
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Classification of Interest Rates
5-36
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Classification of Interest Rates
5-38
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Why is it important to consider effective rates
of return?
5-39
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When is each rate used?
5-40
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What is the FV of $100 after 3 years under 10%
semiannual compounding? Quarterly compounding?
MN
INOM
FVN PV 1
M
23
0.10
FV3S $100 1
2
FV3S $100(1.05)6 $134.01
FV3Q $100(1.025)12 $134.49
5-41
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Can the effective rate ever be equal to the nominal
rate?
5-42
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What’s the FV of a 3-year $100 annuity, if the quoted
interest rate is 10%, compounded semiannually?
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
5%
5-43
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Method 1:
Compound Each Cash Flow
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
5%
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Method 2:
Financial Calculator or Excel
Excel: =FV(.1025,3,-100,0,0)
5-45
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Find the PV of This 3-Year Ordinary Annuity
Excel: =PV(.1025,3,100,0,0)
5-46
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Loan Amortization
5-47
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Step 1:
Find the Required Annual Payment
INPUTS 3 10 -1000 0
N I/YR PV PMT FV
OUTPUT 402.11
Excel: =PMT(.10,3,-1000,0,0)
5-48
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Step 2:
Find the Interest Paid in Year 1
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Step 3:
Find the Principal Repaid in Year 1
5-50
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Step 4:
Find the Ending Balance after Year 1
5-51
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Constructing an Amortization Table:
Repeat Steps 1-4 Until End of Loan
5-52
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Illustrating an Amortized Payment:
Where does the money go?
$
402.11
Interest
302.11
Principal Payments
0 1 2 3
• Constant payments
• Declining interest payments
• Declining balance
5-53
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