Demographic Trends

DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS
CONTENTS
• Introduction & Definition

• Demographic transition (Demographic cycle)
• Epidemiological transition
• Demographic trends
INTRODUCTION
Demography is scientific study of human population.

It focusses on – a) changes in population size
b) the composition of the population
c) the distribution of the population in space
Depends on
1.Size : total number of persons in given population.
2.Distribution : Arrangement of entire population with respect to the
geographical areas at a given point of time.
Contd.,
3.Composition : Distribution of given population with

respect to age and sex.
4.Change : Increase or decrease in the size of the given

population due to fertility, mortality and migration.
DEFINITION
“Scientific study of composition and

distribution of human population and changes
in its size and composition over different time
periods”
5
SOURCES OF DEMOGRAPHIC
DATA
1.Census
2. Vital Events Registers
3. Surveys
4. Sample Registration System

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
The demographic transition framework

illustrates population growth in terms
of discrepancies and changes in two
crude vital rates – mortality and
fertility
7
Demographic Transition Model
Pre Transition (Stage 1)
-high birth and death rates, -small population growth
-disease/malnutrition = high infant mortality rates, -low life expectancy, -
common in some developing nations
Early Transition (Stage 2)
-high birth rates / low death rates, -population EXPLOSION!
-death rates fall due to medical advance, vaccine/sewage/ drinking water
systems), -most developed countries reached this stage during the 1800’s
Middle Transition (Stage 3)
-low death rates / rapidly declining birth rates, -social programs,
industrialization and urbanization eliminate need for large families
Late Transition (Stage 4)
-rates of natural increase have stabilized, -low birth and death rates = low
growth, -changing role of women + family planning
Future Transition (Stage 5)
-birth rate drops below death rate, -long life expectancy
Population Pyramids
Early Expanding
-wide base (high birth rate)
-decrease towards the top (very short life
expectancy)
-few, if any countries are currently classified in the
early expanding stage
-note the date is 1985!
Contd.,
Expanding
-very wide base (high birth rate)
-the cohort groups begin to
enlarge or increase towards the
middle of pyramid
-this widening comes from:
improved medical care, modern
hygiene and improved diets.
-results in a decreased death rate
Contd.,
Stable
-birth rate falls because of
changing attitudes towards
family and family sizes
-education, changing societal

attitudes and economic factors
can cause this decline
-medical care continues to

improve so the death rate
continues to fall
Contd.,
declining
-birth rate reaches very low levels
(women employed in workforce, child-
rearing is expensive, contraceptive
programs are successful, small families
are encouraged by the state)
-death rate continues to decrease
-life expectancy rises.
Demographic trends in
World
HIGHLIGHTS IN WORLD POPULATION
GROWTH
3 billion in 1960
5 billion in 1987 (13
1 billion in 1804 (33 years
years later)
later)
2 billion in 1927 4 billion in 1974

6 billion in 1999 (12
(123 years (14 years
years later)
later) later)
15
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN
INDIA
• India’s population has been steadily rising since 1921.
• The year 1921 is called ‘BIG DIVIDE’ because the absolute number of
people added to the population during each decade has been on the rise
since 1921.
•Current Population Of
India 1,634,235,633,784
•Population Density of 431.11 persons per square kilometer

India
•Age structure
0 to 14 years 25.8%
15 to 64 years 67.45%
65 years and over

6.78%
Population growth rate 1.00%
Birth rate 17.23 births/1,000 population
Death rate 7.34 deaths/1,000 population
Net migration rate -0.342 migrant(s)/1,000 population
Infant mortality rate
Total 27 deaths/1,000 live births

CHANGES IN POPULATION PYRAMIDS OVER TIME IN INDIA (1971-2016)
SOURCE: TECHNICAL GROUP ON POPULATION PROJECTIONS
REGISTRAR GENERAL OF INDIA, 1996
BIRTH AND DEATH RATES
•India’s birth rate has declined drastically from 36.9 in 1971 to 20.0 in 2018.
•The birth rate is higher in rural areas compared to urban areas.
•Bihar (26.2) at the top of list, while Andaman and Nicobar (11.2) is at the bottom.
•The death rate of India has witnessed a decline from 14.9 in 1971 to 6.2 in 2018.
•The decline has been steeper in rural areas.
•Chhattisgarh has the highest death rate at 8 and Delhi, has the lowest death rate of
3.3.
With improvement in maternal and child health services,
successful implementation of the expanded programme on
immunization, diarrhoeal disease and acute respiratory
infection control programmes, as well as with the control of
other infectious diseases, there has been a marked reduction in
infant and child mortality rates, which are reflected in the
declining crude death rates.
SEX RATIO
SEX RATIO = No of females

1000 males
A low sex ratio indicates strong male child preference and
consequent gender inequities, neglect of the girl child resulting in
higher mortality at younger age, female infanticide, female feticide,
higher maternal mortality and male bias
Total-940 (census 2011)
• Rural-881
• Urban-895
Sex ratio in India
YEAR FEMALES PER
1000 MALES
1901 972
1911 964
1921 955
1931 950
1941 945
1951 946
1961 941
1971 930
1981 934
1991 927
2005 939 2011 940 (CENSUS 2011)
SEX RATIO AT BIRTH
• The Sex ratio at birth is defined as the number of female births per
1000 male birth.
DEPENDENCY RATIO
TOTAL DEPENDENCY RATIO = 0–14

yrs + 65 yrs & above
15 – 64 yrs
(also referred to as SOCIETAL
DEPENDENCY RATIO)
In 2020, total dependency ratio for India was 48.7
Total dependency ratio of India fell gradually from 79
in 1971 to 48.7 in 2020.
• Young age dependency ratio
• Old age dependency ratio
• The rapid decline in dependency ratios, especially the child dependency
ratio, has been defined to be a key factor underlying rapid economic
development.
• The term demographic bonus denotes the period when the dependency
ratio in a population declines because of decline in fertility, until it
starts to rise again because of increasing longevity
• The term demographic burden is used to denote the increase in total
dependency ratio during any period of time, mostly caused by increased
old age dependency ratio
DEPENDENCY RATIO
DENSITY OF POPULATION
DENSITY OF POPULATION =
No. of persons
sq. km
• POPULATION DENSITY
INDIA- 431/Sq.Km
URBANIZATION
• Definition of an urban locality

• Proportion of urban population in India
• 1901 : 10.84%
• 1991 : 25.72%
• 2001 : 27.80%
• 2022 : 35.9%
• Factors attributed to urbanization :
• Natural growth (through births)
• Migration from villages for employment
• Attraction of better living conditions
• Availability of social services
FAMILY SIZE
It is the total no of children a woman

has born at a given point of time.
• Completed family size indicates the
total number of children born by a
woman during her child bearing age (15
– 45 yrs)
• Factors affecting family size :
• Duration of marriage
• Education of couples
• No. of live births & living children
• Preference for male children
• Importance of family size - FP

LITERACY AND EDUCATION
• In 1948, the Declaration of Human Rights stated that everyone has a right
to education
• Crucial element in economic and social development
• Spread of literacy is associated with modernization, urbanization,
industrialization, communication and commerce
• In 1991 census, it was decided to use the term literacy rate for the
population relating to 7 years and above
LITERACY & EDUCATION
• A person is deemed literate if he/she can

read & write with understanding in any
language.
• Clear difference b/w males & females.
• Literacy rates in India

• Males : 82.14%
• Females : 65.46%
• Total : 74.04% (Census 2011)
• Govt. of India has made education

compulsory till the age of 14 in the country.
• Crude literacy rate & Effective literacy rate

LIFE EXPECTANCY
• Life expectancy or expectation of life at a given age is average number of

years which a person of that age may expect to live according to the
mortality pattern prevalent in that country.
• Demography considers it as one of the best indicators of country’s level of

development.
• Life expectancy at birth has continued to increase globally over the years
• In 1950 – 1955, the combined life expectancy at birth for both sexes was 46.5
years
• In 2008, it was 69 years, an increase of 22.5 years
• Most countries in the world exhibit a sex differential in mortality favouring women
– females live longer than males
• Trends in life expectancy show that people are living longer and the have a right to
a long life in good health
• Health policy makers need to recognize this changing demographic pattern and
plan for prevention and control of diseases associated with old age
• The current life expectancy for India in 2022 is 70.19 years which is a 0.33%
increase from 2021.
• In 1950, three years after the country gained independence, the life expectancy
stood at 35.21 years.
• Although its life expectancy is lower than its comparators in the middle-income
range, namely, Sri Lanka (77.39 years), Brazil (76.37 years), China (77.3 years)
and Costa Rica (80.75 years), the gains in India’s life expectancy have definitely
been noteworthy.
• Due to improvements in healthcare facilities and availability, there have been
significant enhancements in infant and child mortality along with maternal
mortality.
• All of these have contributed to the gains in the longevity of life in India.
WISH YOU ALL
HAPPY POPULATION DAY
(JULY 11th)
"Everyone Counts"
Thank You

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DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS

• Introduction & Definition

Demography is scientific study of human population.

3.Composition : Distribution of given population with

4.Change : Increase or decrease in the size of the given

“Scientific study of composition and

2. Vital Events Registers

4. Sample Registration System

The demographic transition framework

-education, changing societal

-medical care continues to

2 billion in 1927 4 billion in 1974

•Population Density of 431.11 persons per square kilometer

65 years and over

Birth rate 17.23 births/1,000 population

Death rate 7.34 deaths/1,000 population

Net migration rate -0.342 migrant(s)/1,000 population

Infant mortality rate

Total 27 deaths/1,000 live births

SEX RATIO = No of females

TOTAL DEPENDENCY RATIO = 0–14

• Definition of an urban locality

It is the total no of children a woman

• Importance of family size - FP

• A person is deemed literate if he/she can

• Clear difference b/w males & females.

• Literacy rates in India

• Govt. of India has made education

• Crude literacy rate & Effective literacy rate

• Life expectancy or expectation of life at a given age is average number of

• Demography considers it as one of the best indicators of country’s level of

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