Balance of Payments

Chapter Three
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 Overview
Balance of Payments Accounting
Balance of Payments Accounts
• The Current Account.
• The Capital Account.
• The Financial Account.
• Statistical Discrepancy.
• Official Reserves Account.
The Balance of Payments Identity
Balance of Payments Trends in Major Countries
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 Balance of Payments Accounting 1

Balance of payments is the statistical record of a

country’s international transactions over a certain
period of time presented in the form of double-
entry bookkeeping
Important to study for a few reasons:
1. Provides detailed information concerning the demand
and supply of a country’s currency.
2. May signal its potential as a business partner for the
rest of the world.
3. Used to evaluate the performance of the country in
international economic competition.
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 Balance of Payments Accounting 2

Any transaction that results in a receipt from

foreigners will be recorded as a credit, with a
positive sign, in the U.S. balance of payments
• For example, foreign sales of U.S. goods and services,
goodwill, financial claims, and real assets.
Any transaction that gives rise to a payment to
foreigners will be recorded as a debit, with a
negative sign, on the U.S. balance of payments
• For example, U.S. purchases of foreign goods and
services, goodwill, financial claims, and real assets.

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 Balance of Payments Accounts
International transactions can be grouped into the
following four main types:
1. Current account includes the export and import of
goods and services.
2. Capital account consists of capital transfers and the
cross-border acquisition and disposal of nonproduced
nonfinancial assets. (tend to be large & infrequent)
3. Financial account (excluding official reserves) includes
all purchases and sales of financial assets, such as
stocks, bonds, bank accounts, etc.
4. Official reserve account covers all purchases and
sales of international reserve assets.
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Summary of the U.S. Balance of Payments for
2018 ($b) 1

Credits Debits
Current Account
[1] Exports 2,500.7
[1.1] Goods 1,672.3
[1.2] Services 828.4
[2] Imports −3,122.9
[2.1] Goods −2,563.7
[2.2] Services −559.2
[3] Primary income 1,060.4 −816.1
[4] Secondary income 140.6 −251.2
Balance on current account −488.5
[[1] + [2] + [3] + [4]]
Capital Account 9.4 0
Balance on capital account 9.4

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Summary of the U.S. Balance of Payments for
2018 ($b) 2

Credits Debits
Financial Account
[5] Direct investment 267.1 50.6
[6] Portfolio investment 340.3 −210.4
[6.1] Equity securities 147.2 −97.2
[6.2] Debt securities 172.8 −113.2
[6.3] Derivatives, net 20.3
[7] Other investment 213.8 −136.9
Balance on financial account 524.5
[[5] + [6] + [7]]
[8] Statistical discrepancies −40.5
Overall balance 4.9
Official Reserve Account −4.9

Source: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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 The Current Account 1

Divided into four finer categories:

1. Goods trade represents exports and imports of tangible
goods (for example, oil, wheat, clothes, automobiles,
computers, etc.)
2. Services include payments and receipts for legal,
consulting, financial, and engineering services; royalties
for patents and intellectual properties; shipping fees;
and tourist expenditures.
3. Primary income consists largely of payments and
receipts of interest, dividends, and other income on
foreign investments that were previously made.
4. Secondary income involves “unrequited” payments.
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 The Current Account 2

Current account balance, especially the trade

balance, tends to be sensitive to exchange rate
changes
• Currency depreciation or devaluation can improve
(worsen) the trade balance if imports and exports are
responsive (inelastic).
J-curve effect refers to the initial deterioration and
eventual improvement of trade balance following
the depreciation of a country’s currency

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 The Financial Account
Measures the difference between U.S. sales of
assets to foreigners and U.S. purchases of foreign
assets
Can be divided into three categories:
1. Foreign direct investment (FDI) occurs when the
investor acquires a measure of control of the foreign
business.
2. Portfolio investment mostly represents sales and
purchases of foreign financial assets, such as stocks
and bonds, that do not involve a transfer of control.
3. Other investment includes transactions in currency,
bank deposits, trade credits, etc.
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 Statistical Discrepancy
Exhibit 3.1 shows a statistical discrepancy of −
$40.5 billion in 2018
• Recordings of payments/receipts arising from
international transactions are done at different times and
places, possibly using different methods.
• Financial transactions may be mainly responsible for
discrepancy.
Overall balance (or official settlement balance ) is
the cumulative balance of payments including the
current account, capital account, financial account,
and the statistical discrepancies
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 The Official Reserves Account
Official reserve account includes transactions
undertaken by the authorities to finance the overall
balance and intervene in foreign exchange markets
Post-1945, international reserve assets comprise:
1. Gold.
2. Foreign exchanges.
3. Special drawing rights (SDRs).
4. Reserve positions in the IMF.

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 The Balance of Payments Identity (BOPI)
BCA  BKA  BFA  BRA  0
where
BCA = balance on current account
BKA = balance on capital account
BFA = balance on financial account
BRA = balance on the reserves account

Under fixed exchange regime, countries maintain

official reserves that allow them to have B OP
disequilibrium
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The Balance of Payments Identity (BOPI)

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 BOP Trends in Major Countries 1

U.S. has experienced continuous deficits on the

current accounts since 1982 and continuous
surpluses on the financial account; with the sole
exception of 1991
• Magnitude of U.S. current account deficits is far greater
than any that other countries ever experienced during the
36-year sample period.
Japan has had an unbroken string of current
account surpluses (and financial account deficits)
since 1982 even though the value of the yen rose
steadily until the mid-1990s
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 BOP Trends in Major Countries 2

U.K. recently experienced continuous current

account deficits, coupled with financial account
surpluses
• Magnitude is far less than that of the U.S.
Germany traditionally had current account
surpluses, but between 1991 to 2001 experienced
current account deficits
• Attributed to German reunification and the resultant need
to absorb more output domestically to rebuild the East
German region.
• Since 2002, Germany has returned to its earlier pattern.
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 BOP Trends in Major Countries 3

China tends to have a surplus on the current

account, as well as the financial account (until
recently)

“Global imbalance”
• Overall, U.S. and U.K. generally use up more outputs
than they produce, whereas the opposite holds for China,
Japan, and Germany.

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 Top U.S. Trading Partners, 2018 ($b)
Rank Country Imports Exports Trade Balance Total Trade
1 China 539.5 120.3 −419.2 659.8
2 Canada 318.5 298.7 −19.8 617.2
3 Mexico 346.5 265.0 −81.5 611.5
4 Japan 142.6 75.0 −67.6 217.6
5 Germany 125.9 57.7 −68.2 183.6
6 Korea, Republic 74.3 56.3 −18.0 130.6
7 United Kingdom 60.8 66.2 5.4 127.0
8 France 52.5 36.3 −16.2 88.8
9 India 54.4 33.1 −21.3 87.5
10 Italy 54.7 23.2 −31.5 77.9
11 Taiwan 45.8 30.2 −15.6 76.0
12 Netherlands 24.6 49.4 24.8 74.0
13 Brazil 31.2 39.5 8.3 70.7
14 Ireland 57.5 10.7 −46.8 68.2
15 Switzerland 41.1 22.2 −18.9 63.4

Source: Census Bureau.

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