OUTLIN

E
• Importance of the agriculture sector in
Pakistan and the issues and challenges
the sector faces
• Desired policy interventions and
management options
• Research focus of ADP program and research
activities including in Pakistan
• Lessons and recommendations
 PRESSING
GLOBAL
CHALLENGES
• Developing more sustainable food systems
• Using less land, water, nutrients & energy per unit
output
– increasing productivity
• Conserving biodiversity and improving livelihoods
• Decoupling economic growth from carbon
emissions
• Adapting to an increasingly difficult climate
• Shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy
• Doing all of this simultaneously
 IMPORTANCE OF
AGRICULTURE SECTOR IN
• PAKISTAN
Share of agriculture-inFACTS
GDP is about 20% (since 2010)
from about 40% (in early 60s)
• Combined share of industrial and services sectors is
more than 80%
• Livelihoods of about half of the country’s population,
employing approximately 24 million people
• Foreign earnings (cotton, rice and leather plus cotton
textiles and ready made garments) 38% of the total
export earnings
• Rural non farm income (from early to mid 2000s)
contributed between 40 and 57% to the total rural
household income
 SECTOR-WISE SHARE IN NATIONAL GDP AT
FACTOR COST

60

50

40
Percent

30

20

10
FY60
FY62

FY2000

FY04

FY06

FY08

FY10
FY
FY64
FY66
FY68
FY70
FY72
FY74
FY76
FY78
FY80
FY82
FY84
FY86
FY88
FY90
FY92
FY94
FY96
FY98

02
Agriculture Industry Services

Spielman, D.J., Malik, S.J., Dorosh, P. and Ahmad, N. (2016) Agriculture and Rural Economy in Pakistan: Issues, Outlooks and
Policy Priorities, IFPRI, Washington, D.C.
 GDP, AGRICULTURAL GDP, AND SHARE OF LABOR IN
AGRICULTURE IN PAKISTAN, FY 1980–2014
30,000 60

25,000 50
Constant (2014) billion PKR

20,000 40

Percent
15,000 30

10,000 20

5,000 10

0 0
1979-80
1980-81
1981-82
1982-83
1983-84
1984-85
1985-86
1986-87
1987-88
1988-89
1989-90
1990-91
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98

2000-01
2001-02

2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11

2012-13 (R)
2011-12 (A)

2013-14(P)
1999-00
1998-99

2002-03

Agricultural GDP Total GDP Share of Agriculture in GDP Share of Labor in Agriculture

Spielman, D.J., Malik, S.J., Dorosh, P. and Ahmad, N. (2016) Agriculture and Rural Economy in
Pakistan: Issues, Outlooks and Policy Priorities, IFPRI, Washington, D.C.
 SUB-SECTORAL SHARES IN AGRICULTURAL GDP,
1990–2013
60

50

40
Percentage (%)

30

20

10

0
1990-91

2000-01

2011-12
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00

2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11

2012-13
Year
s
Major Crops Minor Crops Livestock Fishing Forestry

Spielman, D.J., Malik, S.J., Dorosh, P. and Ahmad, N. (2016) Agriculture and Rural Economy in
Pakistan: Issues, Outlooks and Policy Priorities, IFPRI, Washington, D.C.
 AGRICULTURAL AND TFP GROWTH RATES,
PAKISTAN, 1961– 1965 TO 2011–2013

7 6.35
6
4.88
5 4.30 4.37 4.19
3.79 3.91 3.78
4
3.05 2.92
3 2.50
2.07 2.20
2
Percent

1.34
0.83 0.68 0.56 0.74
1 0.49
0
-0.01
-1 -0.54
-2
-3 -2.67
-4
1961-65

1966-70

1971-75

1976-80

1981-85

1986-90

1991-95

2001-05

2011-13
2006-10
1996-2000
Agriculture Growth TFP Growth

Spielman, D.J., Malik, S.J., Dorosh, P. and Ahmad, N. (2016) Agriculture and Rural Economy in Pakistan: Issues, Outlooks and
Policy Priorities, IFPRI, Washington, D.C.
 AGRICULTURE SECTOR
DEVELOPMENT ISSUES
• Agri sector growth-rate in 90s at 4.4% but slowed
to just 2.6% of GDP in 2000-2012
• There is not great welfare improvement and
poverty remains high in the agriculture sector/rural
economy (close to 30%)
• Food security is becoming a major issue
• Some 30% of the population is undernourished
• The livelihood of about 50% of the population still
depends on agriculture
Grember et al. 2015 Global Hunger Index: Armed Conflicts and Challenges of Hunger, IFPRI, Washington, D.C.
Ramay, S.A. (2014), State of food security in Pakistan and policy options, SDPI, Islamabad.
 AGRICULTURE SECTOR
ISSUES AND CHALLENGES
• Stagnating crop yields with wide gaps between progressive and average
farmers
• Poor quality and inadequate supply of inputs and lack of infrastructure
• Under-performance of rural factor and input markets
• High pre and post-harvest losses
• Declining investment including in research, development and extension
• Frequent insect and pest attacks and high incidence of crop and livestock
diseases
• Lack of capital and financial resources
• Lack of international competitiveness of some agricultural commodities
• Low crop diversification
• Highly skewed distribution of farm size and low economy of size and scale
• Inadequate supply of water and the inefficient use of available water
resources
– Gap between Operation and Maintenance (O&M) expenditure and
revenue collection is 68%, 80% and 77% for Punjab, Sindh and KPK,
respectively
Arifulla et al. (2009) Estimating crop yield potential of the major crops and its implications for Pakistan’s crop sector, Sarhad J. Agri
25(4).
LIMITED
DIVERSIFICATION
POST HARVEST
LOSSES
POSTHARVEST LOSSES IN PEACHES
( SWAT)
 WARRANTED POLICIES,
PLANS AND PROGRAMS
• Development and adoption of new varieties
• Better access to markets for inputs (seeds, fertilisers, farm
mechanization, credit, water) and outputs
• Improved infrastructure including storage and cooling
facilities
• Reduction in post harvest losses
• Greater investment in research, development and
extension
• Improved quality and fulfilment of quarantine requirements
for
international markets and competitiveness
• Greater diversification, especially minor but high value
crops
• Effort for greater selling/buying power and economy of size and scale –
cluster farming/structural adjustment
• Enhanced water supply but more efficient water use through better
water management
• Governance and institutional reforms in water sector
 What type of policy intervention is needed to improve
agriculture sector productivity and food security?

• Supply related policies

• Rural infrastructure
• Agricultural research and development, and extension
• Institutions for agricultural resource management
• Farm input and produce pricing

• Demand related policies

• Income, growth and development
• Education and knowledge
• Food price stabilisation

• Market related policies

• Effectiveness of markets
• Policies to insulate local markets from global markets
• Access to local markets
Qureshi et al. (2015), Public policies for improving food and nutrition security at different scales,
Food
Security, Special issue: Towards food security by 2050 DOI 10.1007/s12571-015-0443-z
 POLICY
ANALYSIS
• Good agricultural policies are fundamental to progress
in the economic, social and environmental spheres.
• AND
• Scientific and empirical evidence in policy formulation is
extremely important
• It is generally a low cost process with high and
immediate beneficial impacts
– Costs imposed by poor decisions are reduced
through decisions which rely on rigorous and
objective evidence
A LOT MORE TO DO WITH
GREAT COORDINATION

PIDE and
other
institutions
can play
a major

AC
role
in
analyzing
 MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM CHALLENGES IN
ENSURING FOOD SECURITY IN PAKISTAN

Food security is still a key challenge due to high population growth, rapid urbanization, low purchasing
power, high price fluctuations, erratic food production, and inefficient food distribution systems.

Overall 36.9% of the country's households are “food insecure” as per National Nutritional Survey 2018
conducted by the Ministry of National Health Services, Regulations & Coordination and UNICEF.

26
 MAJOR CHALLENGES TO
FOOD SECURITY IN PAKISTAN

Rapid Diversifyin Increased Rising

Rising
Urbanizati g Diet Food Food
Population
on Patterns Demand Prices

Declined Falling Low Increased

Climate
Purchasing Water Irrigation Soil
Change
Power Tables Efficiency Erosion

Inefficient
Depleting Limited Food
Food
Water Land Losses &
Distributio
Reserves Availability Waste
n Systems

27