Engineering Economics and Accountancy Final PPT Unit-1
Engineering Economics and Accountancy Final PPT Unit-1
Engineering Economics and Accountancy Final PPT Unit-1
ACCOUNTANCY
Lavanya.K
Assistant Professor
MRIT-MBA
UNIT- I
The Economics theories are used to take decisions related to uncertain and
changing business environment. Economics theories deal with the principles of
demand, pricing, cost, production, competition, trade cycles, and national
income and so on.
As the design and manufacturing process become more complex, the engineer is
making decisions that involve money more than ever before. The competent and
successful engineer at present must have an improved understanding of the
principles of economics. The engineering economics is concerned the systematic
evaluation of the benefits and costs of projects involving engineering design and
analysis.
For the clear understanding of the subject matter one must have the knowledge of
the special characteristics of Engineering Economics:
Demand is the quantity of goods and services that customers are willing and able to
purchase during a specified period under a given set of economic conditions. The
period here could be an hour, a day, a month, or a year. The conditions to be
considered include the price of good, consumer’s income, the price of the related
goods, consumer’s preferences, and advertising expenditures and so on.
Demand is an economic principle that describes the willingness and desire of
consumers to purchase specific goods or services at a specific Ceteris Paribus (all
other things being unchanged or constant).
For a new company, the demand analysis can tell whether a substantial demand
exists for the product/service and given the other information like number of
competitors, size of competitors, industry growth etc it helps to decide if the
company could enter the market and generate enough returns to sustain and advance
its business.
DETERMINANTS OF DEMAND
b) Consumer Tastes and Preferences: The demand for a good is also affected by
the tastes and preferences of its buyer. If a consumer no longer likes a commodity,
he/she will not buy it or may buy less of it. An increased taste in a product increases
its demand. A decreased taste in a product decreases its demand.
c) Expectations of Future Price Changes: If people expect prices to rise in the
near future, they will try to buy more now in order to avoid paying a higher price
later and vice versa. If consumers expect a price increase in near future, demand
increases and If consumers expect a price decrease in the near future, demand
decreases.
e) Quality of the Product: High quality of the product leads to high demand
whereas Low quality of the product leads to less demand.
f)Distribution of Income and Wealth in the community: Equal distribution of
income and wealth leads to greater demand and Unequal distribution of income
and wealth leads to lesser demand.
h) Age structure and sex ratio of Population: More population of females leads
to high demand for female-used products and less population of females leads to
low demand for female-used products.
i) Level of Taxation and Tax structure: High tax rate leads to low demand for
goods whereas Low tax rate leads to high demand for goods
The consumer’s decisions are guided by several elements, such as price, income,
tastes and preferences etc. Among the many causal factors affecting demand, price is
the most significant and the price- quantity relationship called as the Law of
Demand is stated as follows:
“The greater the amount to be sold, the smaller must be the price at which it is
offered in order that it may find purchasers, or in other words, the amount demanded
increases with a fall in price and diminishes with a rise in price”. In simple words
other things being equal, quantity demanded will be more at a lower price than
at higher price. The law assumes that income, taste, fashion, prices of related
goods, etc. remain the same in a given period.
The law indicates the inverse relation between the price of a commodity and its
quantity demanded in the market.
Exceptions to the Law of Demand
The law of demand is widely applicable to a large number of goods. However, there
are certain exceptions to it on account of which a change in the price of a good does
not lead to a change in its quantity demanded in the opposite direction.
1. Inferior Goods: Some goods are consumed generally by poorer sections of the
society. It is believed that with an increase in income such a consumer should move
to a ‘better’ quality substitute good. For example, with an increase in income, a
typical poor consumer shifts his demand from coarse grains to finer varieties of
cereals. Therefore, with a fall in the price of a good (more so a necessity on which
the consumer is spending a large part of his budget), the real income of the consumer
goes up. If, he considers the good under consideration an inferior good, he reduces
its demand and buys more of its substitute(s).
2.Giffen Goods: Some special varieties of inferior goods are termed as Giffen
goods. Cheaper varieties of this category like bajra, cheaper vegetable like potatoes
come under this category.
Sir Robert Giffen of UK first observed that people used to spend more their income
on inferior goods like potato and less of their income on meat. But potatoes
constitute their staple food. When the price of potato increased, after purchasing
potato they did not have so many surpluses to buy meat. So the rise in price of
potato compelled people to buy more potato and thus raised the demand for potato.
This is against the law of demand. This is also known as Giffen paradox. So giffen
goods are products that people continue to buy even at high prices due to lack of
substitute products.
3.Veblen Goods: A Veblen good is a luxury item whose price does not follow the
usual laws of supply and demand. Usually, the higher the price of a particular good the
less people will want it. For luxury goods, such as very expensive wines, watches or
cars, however, the item becomes more desirable as it grows more expensive and less
desirable should it drop in price. Veblen goods are named after the American
economist and sociologist Thorstein Veblen. Veblen goods are not to be confused with
Giffen goods which also rise in demand as they grow more expensive. Far from being
luxury items Giffen goods tend to be staple food items, the increased demand for
which is fuelled by poverty.
4.Ignorance: In some cases, the consumers suffer from the false notion that a higher
priced good is of better quality. This happens mainly in the case of those goods where
a typical consumer is not able to judge the quality easily. In such cases, the sellers
may be able to sell more not by lowering the price but by raising it.
5.Conspicuous Consumption: Certain goods are meant for adding to one’s social
prestige. These form the part of ‘status symbol’ for showing that their user is a
wealthy or cultured person. The consumers consider it as a distinction to have these
goods. In other words, a commodity may be purchased not because of its intrinsic
value but because it is expected to add to the social prestige of the buyer. For
example: Diamonds and expensive jewellery, expensive carpets. Their demand falls,
if they are inexpensive
6.Change in Fashion: A change in fashion and tastes affects the market for a
commodity. When a broad toe shoe replaces a narrow toe, no amount of reduction in
the price of the latter is sufficient to clear the stocks. Broad toe on the other hand,
will have more customers even though its price may be going up. The law of
demand becomes ineffective.
7.Complementary Goods: Law of demand may be violated in the case of
complementary goods also. For example: if the price of the DVD player falls leading
to increase in its demand, in spite of rise in price of DVDs, their demand will
increase.
Demand Forecasting and Methods
Introduction:
The information about the future is essential for both new firms and those planning
to expand the scale of their production. Demand forecasting refers to an estimate of
future demand for the product.
It is an ‘objective assessment of the future course of demand”. In recent times,
forecasting plays an important role in business decision-making. Demand
forecasting has an important influence on production planning. It is essential for a
firm to produce the required quantities at the right time.
It is essential to distinguish between forecasts of demand and forecasts of sales.
Sales forecast is important for estimating revenue cash requirements and expenses.
Demand forecasts relate to production, inventory control, timing, reliability of
forecast etc. However, there is not much difference between these two terms.
METHODS OF DEMAND FORECASTING
Surveys of this nature focus directly on the consumer requirements and their
behaviour. They look more simple and easy to be administered when compared to
other statistical techniques such as trend analysis and econometric methods such as
regression analysis.
b) Sales Force Opinion method: Sales Force Opinions Another source of
getting reliable information about the possible level of sales or demand for a
given product or service is the group of people who sell the same. Thus, we can
control the limitations of cost and delays in contacting the customers.
The sales people are those who are in constant touch with the main and large
buyers of a particular market, and hence they constitute another valid source of
information about the likely sales of a product. The sales force is capable of
assessing the likely reactions of the customers of their territories quickly, given
the company’s marketing strategy; It is less costly as the survey can be conducted
instantaneously through telephone, fax or video conferencing, and so on. The
data, thus collected, forms another valid source of reliable information.
Here also, there is a danger that salesman may sometimes become biased in
their views. The sales people are paid based on their results. Where the targets
are set based on the results of the survey of the sales force, and the payment is
linked to achievement of these targets, incentive is paid to those who achieve
more than their targets. To prevent the company from fixing higher targets, it is
quite likely that they understate or overstate the demand to eventually get how
or high sales quota set for them.
2. Statistical Methods: For forecasting the demand for goods and services in th
long run , statistical and mathematical methods are used considering th past data.
a) Trend Projection Methods: These are generally based on analysis of past
sales patterns. These methods dispense with the need for costly market research
because the necessary information is often already available in company files in
terms of different time periods, that is, a time series data. There are five main
techniques of mechanical extra pollution. In extrapolation, it is assumed that
existing trend will maintain all through.
Trend line by observation: This method of forecasting trend is elementary, easy
and quick as it involves merely the plotting the actual sales data on a chart and
then estimating just by observation where the trend line lies. The line can be
extended towards a future period and corresponding sales forecast read from the
graph.
Least Squares Method: Certain statistical formulae are used here to find the trend
line which ‘best fits’ the available data. The trend line is the basis to extrapolate the
line ofr future demand for the given product or service on graph. Here it is assumed
that there is a proportion change in sales over a period of time. In such a case , the
trend line equation is in linear form. Where this assumption does not hold a good, the
equation can be in non linear form.
The estimating linear trend equation of sales is written as:
Where x and y have been calculated from past data S is sales and T is the year number
for which the forecast is made. To find the values of x and y, the following normal
equations have to be stated and solved:
Where
S is the sales ;
T is the year number ,
n= number of years
Time series analysis: Where the surveys or market tests are costly and time
consuming, statistical and mathematical analysis of past sales data offers another
method to prepare the forecasts , that is, time series analysis . One major
requirement to administer this technique is that the product should have actively
been traded in the market for quite some time in the past. In other words,
considerable data on the performance of the product or service over significantly
large period should be available for better results under this method. Time series
emerge from such a data when arranged chronologically .Given significantly
large data, the cause and effect relationships can be discovered through
quantitative analysis.
Moving average method: This method considers that the average of past events
determines the future events. In other words, this method provides consistent
results when the past events are consistent and unaffected by wide changes. AS
the name itself suggests, under this method, the average keeps on moving
depending up on the number of years selected. Selection of the number of years is
the decisive factor in this method. Moving averages get updated as new
information flows in.
This method is easy to compute. One major advantage with this method is that the
old data CAN be dispensed with, once the averages are computed. These averages,
not the original data, are further used as the forecast for next period.
Exponential smoothing: This is a more popular technique used for short run
forecasts. This method is an improvement over moving averages method. Unlike
in moving averages method, all time periods here are given varying weights, that
is m the values of the given variable in the recent times are given higher weights
and the values of the given variable in the distant past are given relatively lower
weights for further processing.
The formula used for exponential smoothing is
St+1 = cSt + (1-c)Smt
Where
St+1 is exponentially smoothed average for nw year
Expert Opinion: Well informed persons are called experts. Experts constitutes at
another source of information. These persons are generally the outside experts and
they do not have any vested interests in the results of a particular survey. An
experts is good at forecasting and analyzing the feature trends in a given product or
service at a given level of technology.
Test marketing: It is likely that opinions given by buyers, sales man or other
expert may be, at times, misleading. This is the reason why most of the
manufacturers favor to test their product or service in limited market as test run
before they launch their product nationwide.
Controlled Experiments: Controlled experiments refer to such exercises where
some of the major determinants of demand are manipulated to suit to the
customers with the different tastes and preferences, income groups, and such
others. It is further assumed that all other factor remain the same. In this method,
the product is introduced with different packages, different prices in different
markets or same markets to assess which combination appeals to the customer
most.
Judgmental approach: When none of the above methods are directly related to
the given product or service, the management has no alternative other than using
its own judgment.
ELASTICITY OF DEMAND
Elasticity of demand explains the relationship between a change in price and
consequent change in amount demanded. “Marshall” introduced the concept of
elasticity of demand. Elasticity of demand shows the extent of change in quantity
demanded to a change in price.
In the words of “Marshall”, “The elasticity of demand in a market is great or small
according as the amount demanded increases much or little for a given fall in the
price and diminishes much or little for a given rise in Price”
Elastic demand: A small change in price may lead to a great change in quantity
demanded. In this case, demand is elastic.
In-elastic demand: If a big change in price is followed by a small change in
demanded then the demand in “inelastic”.
Types and Measurements of Elasticity of Demand:
There are different types of elasticity of demand:
P D D1
0 X
The demand curve DD1 is horizontal straight line. It shows the at “OP”
price any amount is demand and if price increases, the consumer will not
purchase the commodity.
A. Perfectly Inelastic Demand: In this case, even a large change in price
fails to bring about a change in quantity demanded.
When price increases from ‘OP’ to ‘OP’, the quantity demanded remains
the same. In other words the response of demand to a change in Price is
nil. In this case ‘E’=0.
A. Relatively elastic demand: Demand changes more than proportionately
to a change in price. i.e. a small change in price loads to a very big change
in the quantity demanded. In this case E > 1. This demand curve will be
flatter.
When price falls from ‘OP’ to ‘OP’, amount demanded in crease from “OQ’
to “OQ1’ which is larger than the change in price.
A. Relatively in-elastic demand: Quantity demanded changes less than
proportional to a change in price. A large change in price leads to small
change in amount demanded. Here E < 1. Demanded carve will be steeper.
When price falls from “OP’ to ‘OP1 amount demanded increases from OQ
to OQ1, which is smaller than the change in price.
A. Unit elasticity of demand: The change in demand is exactly equal to the
change in price. When both are equal E=1 and elasticity if said to be
unitary.
When price falls from ‘OP’ to ‘OP1’ quantity demanded increases from ‘OP’ to
‘OP1’, quantity demanded increases from ‘OQ’ to ‘OQ1’. Thus a change in price
has resulted in an equal change in quantity demanded so price elasticity of
demand is equal to unity.
2. Income elasticity of demand:
Income elasticity of demand shows the change in quantity demanded as a result of a
change in income. Income elasticity of demand may be slated in the form of a
formula.