Module - 1
Module - 1
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total monetary or market value of all the finished
goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period. As a
broad measure of overall domestic production, it functions as a comprehensive
scorecard of a given country’s economic health.
Real GDP takes into account the effects of inflation while nominal GDP does not.
Exchange Rate Risk
This risk stems from the uncertainty in the changes in the value of the
currencies. So, it affects only the companies doing foreign exchange
transactions, like export and import companies
Political Risk
Political risk occurs primarily due to political instability in a country or a
region. For instance, if a country is at war, then the companies operating
there would be considered risky.
Opportunity Cost and Systematic Risk
Since systematic risk is non-diversifiable, investors demand a
premium to make up for this risk factor. For instance, if risk-free
government security is giving a 5% return, then an investor expects
to make more than that from the equity investment, like 8%. This
difference of 3% (or a premium of 3%) is for assuming the
systematic risk.
So, systematic risk can also be viewed as the opportunity cost for
selecting one security over another. For instance, if an investor faces a
choice between two options – a 5% risk-free government and a stock with a
15% return, he will make a choice based on his financial goals. If he goes
for the first option, then the return is low, but no risk is involved, including
systematic risk. And, if he goes for the second option, then the additional
return is the opportunity cost of the risk taken by going for the risky asset
instead of the safer option.
Financial risk is an inherent part of the investment and
applies to businesses, government, individuals, and even
financial markets. It basically represents the chance that
the parties involved (shareholders, investors, or other
financial stakeholders) will lose money.
Priority Sector refers to those sectors which the Government of India and
Reserve Bank of India consider as important for the development of the basic needs of the
country. They are assigned priority over other sectors. The banks are mandated to encourage
the growth of such sectors with adequate and timely credit.
Absolute risks help put into perspective how much benefit an
individual is likely to have from a treatment or prevention.
The relative risk can help us find disparities, like if one group is
having better outcomes than another. But be wary, relative risk
reductions are often used to exaggerate the effects of a treatment.
Risk Capacity: The maximum level of risk at which a firm can operate
while remaining within constraints implied by capital and funding needs
and its obligations to stakeholders. No firm should want to operate at its
capacity since there would be a very real risk of a breach. Once the
capacity has been understood, a crucial task of risk management is to
understand how a firm‘s activities expose it to risks that use up that
capacity.
The risk capacity is the maximum amount of risk the company can
assume and therefore represents the upper boundary for the risk
appetite. In the above-given case of an investment firm, the firm
may be able to trade $300 million of securities using leverage. In
that case, $300 million is its risk capacity.
To run a business each company has to take a minimum level of risk. If a company
does not make credit sales, the risk of bad debt expense can be brought to zero;
but cannot achieve its targeted business objective (revenue target). Hence, a floor
of 25% credit sales may be set up; which may adversely affect the targeted
revenue. Risk appetite below the floor will yield no business.
Likewise, if the risk appetite is above the ceiling, the risk exposure will be
too high. In the case of credit sales beyond a threshold, there will be an
increased liquidity/solvency risk. A credit sale of 90% of total sales is
therefore not an acceptable risk level.
Hence, it is important to keep the risk between a range [say between the
ceiling and flooring or within tolerance levels]. The upper and lower targets
are the risk tolerance or acceptable variation.
The British Bankers'
Association (BBA) fixing
of the London Interbank
Offered Rate ( LIBOR).
BBA LIBOR was used
as a benchmark or
reference rate for
calculating interest. It
was compiled by the
BBA and released to
the market at about
11.00 am each day.
MATA
Mitigate,
Avoid,
Transfer,
Accept
1. Stop the production of the product if the product has no demand.
Cancel the production of goods if there is a decline in the demand to completely avoid
future losses.
2. ABC enterprise which manufactures air conditioner observes that there are many issues
with the circuits of the air conditioners so the management plan many visit to the
manufacturing unit and invest on repairs and maintenance TO MITIGATE potential losses.
3. Alternative action – Associated risk – ABC enterprise based in India which
manufactures towel instead of purchasing cotton from china they prefer purchasing cotton
within India to avoid high exchange rate risk . They prefer purchasing cotton from within
the country
4. Transferring risk to third parties like insurance companies.
5. Natural disaster is one example which cannot be avoided and is accepted.
There are 8 components to ERP which work harmoniously to mitigate risk and seize
opportunity.
Internal environment
Objective setting
Issue identification
Risk assessment
Risk response
Control objectives
Monitoring
Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) Components
( Risk Planning Components by Board of Directors)
1. Internal Environment: The internal environment encompasses the tone of
an organization, and sets the basis for how risk is viewed and addressed
by an entity’s people, including risk management philosophy and risk
appetite, integrity and ethical values, and the environment in which they
operate.
2. Objective Setting: Objectives must exist before management can identify
potential events affecting their achievement. Enterprise risk management
ensures that management has in place a process to set objectives and that
the chosen objectives support and align with the entity’s mission and are
consistent with its risk appetite.
( Risk Response Components by Risk Team)
4. Risk Assessment: Risks are analysed, considering likelihood and impact, as a basis
for determining how they should be managed. Risks are assessed on an inherent and a
residual basis.
In the year 2001, the interest rates in US was close to 1% and the stock market was also down so investors were neither
interested in the stock market nor wanted to park their money in bank as the interest rate was low.
The credit rating agencies used to evaluate the loans and give the CDOs a rating. The
Investment banks now sold these CDOs to the investors.
Ideally the banks evaluate the borrowers credit worthiness before issuing loans to the
customers (verifying their income ) here the banks were transferring the risk to the
investment bankers and the investment bankers were inturn transferring the risk to the
potential invetors.
With the greed to get more commission from the investment banks the banks now
started giving housing loans to low credit worthy customers without verifying their
income source
The banks sold these loans to the Investment Bankers and the Investment bankers in turn complied
many loans together and made a bundle of these loans and called them as CDOs.
The investor bankers also got a AAA rating to almost 70% of these CDOs .
The AAA rating created good demand for the subprime loan as well. The investors sold these CDOs to the
investors and the investors had no idea what was happening in the backdrop
Countrywide Financial Corp and Amerequest Mortage company had given close to $177 Bn subprime loans
Between 2000- 2007 the investment banks made huge profits. Along with the banks and
investment banks even the credit rating agencies made huge profits
Since the CDOs had AAA rating the AIG
which was the largest Insurance company in
the world gave insurance to the CDOs
thinking there was very little chance of
these CDOs defaulting .
The insurance called it as Credit Default
Swaps.
The CDOs investors bought insurance in
order to get protection against the losses
The investors did not know that the interest
rate on the sub prime loans were adjustable
rate loan which is usually low in the initial
years and later increases.
The banks had not informed the borrowers
about the adjustable rate loan and as the
interest rate increased the the sub prime
borrowers were unable to pay the interest and
the banks recovered the loan amount by
auctioning the houses .
internal and external factors that affect the interests of a company's stakeholders,
financial stability and business integrity, thereby supporting stronger growth and
• Lesser fines and penalties: Since the legal compliance aspect is taken care of credit to the corporate governance practices,
companies are able to save a fortune on unnecessary fines and compliances and possibly redirect those funds towards business
objectives to achieve greater heights.
• Better management: Since there is a structure in place with regard to how the entity operates, its day-to-day functioning,
managing the activities and achieving targets becomes a whole lot easier. The work atmosphere also takes care of itself under good
principles of corporate governance fostering teamwork, unity, efficiency and a drive for success.
• Reputation and relationships: Companies with good corporate governance are able to attract investors and external
financiers with relative ease, going by their sterling reputation and brand image. One of the pillars of corporate governance is
transparency, which is the practice of sharing key internal information with the stakeholders. This improves the relationship of the entity
with its stakeholders and sows the seeds of trust between the company and society at large.
• Lesser conflicts and frauds: The rules instilled in the workplace encourage the employees to be morally conscious in
every situation that they encounter, thus eliminating the possibility of fraud and conflict between employees.
THE CODE OF CONDUCT
1.2. Shall exercise reasonable judgment in the provision of risk services while
maintaining independence of thought and direction. GARP Members must
not offer, solicit, or accept any gift, benefit, compensation, or consideration
that could be reasonably expected to compromise their own or another‘s
independence and objectivity.
1.3. Must take reasonable precautions to ensure that the Member‘s services are not
used for improper, fraudulent or illegal purposes. EX insider trading, market
manipulation.
1.5. Shall not engage in any professional conduct involving dishonesty or deception or
engage in any act that reflects negatively on their integrity, character, trustworthiness,
1.6. Shall not engage in any conduct or commit any act that
compromises the integrity of GARP, the FRM designation, or the
integrity or validity of the examinations leading to the award of the
right to use the FRM designation or any other credentials that may be
offered by GARP. Ex do not leak the papers, no cheating in the exam
4.1 comply with all the applicable laws, rules and regulations (including this Code)
governing the GARP members‘ professional activities and shall not knowingly participate
or assist in any violation of such laws, rules, or regulations.
4.2 Have ethical responsibilities and cannot outsource or delegate those responsibilities
to others.
4.3 Understand the needs and complexity of their employer or client, and should
provide appropriate and suitable risk management services and advice.
4.4 Be diligent about not overstating the accuracy or certainty of results or
conclusions
4.5 Clearly disclose the relevant limits of their specific knowledge and expertise
concerning risk assessment, industry practices, and applicable laws and regulations.