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Transportation planning process
1
Transportation planning process
• Monitoring existing conditions
• Forecasting future population and employment growth, including assessing

projected land uses in the region and identifying major growth corridors
• Identifying current and projected future transportation problems and needs

and analyzing, through detailed planning studies, various transportation
improvement strategies to address those needs
• Developing long-range plans and short-range programs of alternative capital

improvement and operational strategies for moving people and goods
• Estimating the impact of recommended future improvements to the

transportation system on environmental features, including air quality
• Developing a financial plan for securing sufficient revenues to cover the costs of
implementing strategies 2
Travel demand modeling
Most important aspect of transportation planning
Ability to ask critical “what if” questions about proposed plans

and policies
Travel demand forecasting model

A computer model used to estimate travel behaviour and travel
demand for a specific future time frame, based on a number of
assumptions.
3
Transport modeling
• Modeling is an important part of any large scale decision

making process in any system.
• The study of the behaviour of individuals in making decisions
regarding the provision and use of transport
Transport demand and supply

• The transport demand is a derived demand, and not a need in
itself.
• People travel not for the sake of travel, but to practice in
activities in different locations
• concept of equilibrium is central to the supply-demand
analysis 4
Transport demand and supply
Law of Demand states that the demand for transport services
decreases when the price of this service increases
demand curve assumes that if transport costs are high, demand

is low as the consumers of a transport service (either freight or
passengers) are less likely to use it. If transport costs are low, the
demand would be high as users would get more services for the
same cost.
The supply curve behaves inversely. If costs are high, transport

providers would be willing to supply high quantities of services
since high profits are likely to arise under such circumstances. If
costs are low, the quantity of transport services would be low as
many providers would see little benefits operating at a loss.
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The equilibrium point represents a compromise between what
users are willing to pay and what providers are willing to offer.
Travel demand modeling aims to establish the spatial

distribution of travel clearly by means of an appropriate system
of zones.
Modeling of demand thus implies a procedure for predicting

what travel decisions people would like to make given the
generalized travel cost of each alternatives
6
Four-stage model(FSM)
The base decisions include the choice of destination, the choice
of the mode, and the choice of the route.
7
Data Base
The FSM has significant data demands in addition to that
required to define the activity and transportation systems.
Household travel surveys provide
• household and person-level socio-economic data (typically
including income and the number of household members,
workers, and cars)
• activity-travel data (typically including for each activity
performed over a 24-hr period activity type, location, start
time, duration, and, if travel was involved, mode, departure
time, and arrival time
• household vehicle data
8
Data Base
Network Characteristics
Zonal Socio-Economic Data

(total number of households per zone and total number of employees per zone)
9
Data Base
Household Demographic Data
(number of households per zone by household car ownership and household
income)
10
The Four Step Model
11
The Four stage Model
Trip generation
• Estimating the number of trips generated in a small geographic
area, called a zone, or at a particular location, and attracted to
another zone or particular location, based on the assumed
relationship among socioeconomic factors, land use
characteristics, and the number of trips.
• In trip generation, measures of trip frequency are developed

providing the tendency to travel. Trips are represented as trip
ends, productions and attractions, which are estimated separately.
Trip distribution
Estimating the number of trips that originate in every zone in the
study area, with destinations to every other zone.
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Mode choice
Estimating, for the number of trips predicted between each origin and
destination, the number of trips made via each type of mode that is
available for that trip. Thus, “x” percent are likely to drive alone, “y”
percent are likely to take transit, “z” percent are likely to ride-share, etc
Network assignment
Estimating the number of trips via a particular mode that will take
specific paths through a road or transit network. The end result, when
all trips are assigned to a network, is an estimate of the total number
of trips that will use each link in the network. When compared to the
capacity of this link, planners can forecast the level of congestion that
will occur at that location. This becomes the basis for assessing the
performance of the of the transportation system
13
Trip generation
• The objective of this first stage of the FSM process is to

define the magnitude of total daily travel in the model
system, at the household and zonal level, for various trip
purposes (activities).
• The trip generation aims at predicting the total number of

trips generated and attracted to each zone of the study area.
• In other words this stage answers the questions to ``how

many trips" originate at each zone, from the data on
household and socioeconomic attributes
14
Types of trip
• Journey is an out way movement from a point

of origin to a point of destination, where as
the word ``trip" denotes an outward and
return journey.
• If either origin or destination of a trip is the
home of the trip maker then such trips are
called home based trips and the rest of the
trips are called non home based trips.
15
Types of trip
Trip production is defined as all the trips of home based or as

the origin of the non home based trips
Three different trip purposes are defined
• home-based work trips (HBW),

• home-based other (or non-work) trips (HBO), and
• non-home-based trips (NHB)
 The majority of trips are typically home-based, having their

origin or destination at home. NHB trips have neither trip end
at home.
 Trip ends are modeled as productions or attractions
 The home-end of a trip is always the production -- it is the
household and its activity demands that gives rise to, or
produce, all trips;
 The non-home end is the attraction (for NHB trips, the origin
is the production and the destination is the attraction).
Classification of Trips
Trips can be classified by trip purpose, trip time
of the day, and by person type.
Purpose of the journey
• Trips for work, trips for education, trips for
shopping, trips for recreation and other trips.
• Among these the work and education trips
are often referred as mandatory trips and the
rest as optional trips.
18
Classification of Trips
Trip time of the day
peak trips and off peak trips
Type of the individual
Travel behaviour is highly influenced by the
socio economic attribute of the traveller and are
normally categorized based on the income level,
vehicle ownership and house hold size.
19
Factors affecting trip generation
• The main factors affecting personal trip production include

income, vehicle ownership, house hold structure and family
size
• The personal trip attraction, on the other hand, is influenced

by factors such as roofed space available for industrial,
commercial and other services.
20
Growth Factor Modeling
• Growth factor modes tries to predict the number of

trips produced or attracted by a house hold or zone as
a linear function of explanatory variables
• where Ti is the number of future trips in the zone

and ti is the number of current trips in that zone
and fi is a growth factor.
• The growth factor depends on the explanatory

variable such as population (P) of the zone , average
house hold income (I) , average vehicle ownership (V).
21

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Transportation planning process

• Forecasting future population and employment growth, including assessing

• Identifying current and projected future transportation problems and needs

• Developing long-range plans and short-range programs of alternative capital

• Estimating the impact of recommended future improvements to the

Ability to ask critical “what if” questions about proposed plans

Travel demand forecasting model

• Modeling is an important part of any large scale decision

Transport demand and supply

demand curve assumes that if transport costs are high, demand

The supply curve behaves inversely. If costs are high, transport

Travel demand modeling aims to establish the spatial

Modeling of demand thus implies a procedure for predicting

Zonal Socio-Economic Data

• In trip generation, measures of trip frequency are developed

• The objective of this first stage of the FSM process is to

• The trip generation aims at predicting the total number of

• In other words this stage answers the questions to ``how

• Journey is an out way movement from a point

Trip production is defined as all the trips of home based or as

• home-based work trips (HBW),

 The majority of trips are typically home-based, having their

• The main factors affecting personal trip production include

• The personal trip attraction, on the other hand, is influenced

• Growth factor modes tries to predict the number of

• where Ti is the number of future trips in the zone

• The growth factor depends on the explanatory

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