2 International Conference on Climate Change & Environment

nd
Organized by QAU Islamabad & Pak Environmental Protection Agency, 11-13 Jan 2023

Climate Change, Water and People in Pakistan

Nazam Maqbool, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics Islamabad
nazammaqbool@pide.org.pk; @Nazam_Maqbool

Map 1: Global climate risk 2021 (darker are higher-risk countries

Abstract Research Methodology (grey signifies no official data available)
Climate change is a formidable reality in Pakistan. Water is the
prime channel through which the impacts of climate change on
ecosystems and livelihoods will be felt. Pakistan is already a water-
stressed country, ranking 14 among the 17 ‘extremely high water
risk’ countries and climate change would only increase the pressure
on water resources. The impact of climate change, in the form of
melting of glaciers, heavy and untimely rainfall, extreme weather
events, and sea level rises, on water resources and systems can
negatively impact people’s well-being in the country. Since mid of
June 2022, Pakistan has been affected by the worst floods caused
by record monsoon rains and melting glaciers, costing the economy
over US$30 billion, and affecting 33 million people. With Pakistan
being the fifth largest country in the world, there is a need to initiate
efforts for mitigating the effects of climate change. A coordinated
regional-level solution can change the fate of the region by
changing climate change from a challenge to an opportunity.
Similarly, common adaptation strategies may be adopted keeping
in view the shared ecosystems such as glaciers, rivers, mountains, Analysis & Discussion
and rains as well as the common interest of countries and the
IMPACT OF CLIMATE ON WATER CYCLE:
prevention of conflict. The aim of the paper is to address the impact
Climate change is further exacerbating existing conditions, making the management of water
of global warming on water availability. In particular, the analysis
availability and quality more difficult (see figure 1). The country is already facing climate-related
looks at the impact of climate change on people.
threats to water resources as is evident from the change in monsoon patterns, receding glaciers,
rising temperatures and recurrence of floods and droughts.
Melting of Glaciers: Rapid melting of Himalayan glaciers threatening water inflows into the Indus
River System in the short to medium term, and the depletion of glaciers in the long term.
Rising Temperature and Erratic Precipitation: Climate change will change the temperature and Source: Eckstein et al. 2021.
Introduction & Background increase the variability in the magnitude and timing of rainfall especially during the monsoon
Over the last two decades, Pakistan has been ranked among the top season, resulting in lesser water storage and increased water stress. Conclusions & the Way Forward
10 most vulnerable countries of the world to climate change, with Extreme Weather Events (Floods and Droughts): Climate change is already making extreme
weather events such as droughts and floods more intense and more frequent, and will continue The solution requires efficient management and conservation of water and
10,000 fatalities due to climate-related disasters and financial losses ownership to resolve the issue by the political leadership.
amounting to about $4 billion from 173 extreme weather events to do so in the future, negatively affecting water resources and water security. Drought frequency
is increasing in already arid and semi-arid areas. Between 2010 and 2030, the number of people Supply side interventions include recycling of wastewater as is done in
(Eckstein et al., 2021 and see map 1). The country is already facing Israel and Singapore based on principle of private sector participation and
climate-related threats to water resources as is evident from the exposed to riverine flood risk in Pakistan is expected to increase from 1.9 million to 5.2 million,
GDP loss to increase from $4.6b to $22b (WRI, 2020). optimal pricing of water. This needs to be coupled with increased
change in monsoon patterns, receding glaciers, rising temperatures investment in cost-effective brackish groundwater and seawater
and recurrence of floods and droughts. Prolonged droughts in Sea Level Rise: The average temperature in Pakistan has increased by 0.60C between 1901-
2000, and the annual rise in sea level is estimated at 1.1 mm (GOP, 2015). A projected increase desalinization to improve water supply.
Tharparkar in Sindh and Balochistan caused loss to human life and Demand-side interventions include a set of efficiency standards for
livelihoods. Since mid of June 2022, Pakistan has been affected by in the sea level in the range of 0.3-0.8 metres under all emission scenarios (low to high) in
coastal areas of Pakistan during the 21st Century (World Bank, 2022). domestic and industrial water use, conservation and water efficiency
worst floods caused by record monsoon rains and melting glaciers, practices in the farm sector along with population control.
costing the economy over US$30 billion (WFP, Pakistan 2022). The Fill vacuum between policies, reforms and their implementation by devising
floods affected 33 million people in 94 districts out of 160, killed over IMPACT ON PEOPLE:
Agriculture/Food Security: In Pakistan, a 6% decline in rainfall will increase net irrigation water a detailed implementation plan. A major paradigm shift will include water
1,739 people, impacted over 2 million housing units, and pushed 9 infrastructure maintenance, water conservation technologies and
million people pushed into poverty (UNDP, Pakistan 2022 and map requirement by 29%. Wheat crop yield will be reduced by 3.4-12.5% in semi-arid irrigated areas
including Faisalabad and Sheikhupura, and 3.8-14.5% in arid areas including Hyderabad, Badin, awareness-raising. Resolve the disconnect between provincial (water, food
2). The most vulnerable regions to climate change in the country and agriculture, and environment) and federal (climate change) issues
include drought-prone areas in Sindh, Balochistan and Punjab; Bahawalpur and Multan towards the end of 21st century (APP, 2017).
Human Displacement/Migration: Entire communities from Badin, Sajiwal and Thatta districts through better coordination.
flood-prone areas in Sindh, Balochistan and Punjab; and Regional cooperation: mechanisms and processes for: the exchange of
mountainous areas in KP, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Gilgit- have migrated to Karachi permanently after the cyclones & floods of 2010 & 2011. In 2010 &
2022 floods, 14 million and 8 million people were temporarily relocated respectively. A decline in data and information; help to forge more robust water-sharing treaties,
Baltistan and parts of the FATA where lack of security has affected especially concerning hydrological variability and climate change; and be
the population’s capacity to cope with climate change effectively. wheat production will affect the rural poor and marginalized households across Pakistan.
Poverty and Inequality: 2022 floods, national poverty rate to increase by 3.7-4.0 percentage able to address the issue of pollution and promote better flood
The paper aims to address the impact of climate change on water management. This will help South Asia in holistic river basin management,
systems and people. The following questions are addressed: points, pushing 8.4-9.1 million people into poverty. MPI will increase by 5.9 percentage points.
Human Health: In Pakistan, the incidence of infectious disease and diarrhoea increased after the making water from a source of
2010 and 2022 floods. Diarrhoeal-related deaths in Pakistan are projected to decrease by 2050, conflict into a source of cooperation.
1. How can climate change (in the form of melting glaciers,
but, under a high emissions scenario, the proportion of those attributable to climate change is
Ravi

s
temperature/precipitation changes, extreme weather events, and Map 2: 2022 Pakistan Floods
Bea
sea level rise) impact water resources? expected to rise by 17 percent by 2050.

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tle
Energy Security: Global warming will affect the availability of water needed for electricity

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2. How can climate change affect people (agriculture/food
security, human health, human migration, energy, and generation from hydro (two-thirds currently) as well as used for thermal power plant cooling. It
women/gender)? would also increase the demand and use of electricity for pumping water for irrigation.
3. What are the ways and strategies to ensure economic Gender: Women are more prone to impacts due to limited access to resources, poor adaptive
growth in Pakistan in a way to ensure sustainable development? capacity and their traditional responsibilities.
Economy: The floods of 2010, 2011 and 2012 incurred economic costs, resulting in economic
growth on average at a rate of 2.9% instead of its potential rate of 6.5% (Saeed, 2013). By 2050,
GDP may decline by 18-20 percent due to climate change and environmental degradation (6.5-
9% due to CC) (World Bank, 2022).
Figure 1: Pakistan’s Water Sector

Source: The Economist 2022.

References
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Strategy Action Plan. Islamabad: Ministry of Climate Change.
. Leadership for Environment and Development (LEAD), Pakistan. 2016.
Monthly Newsletter. Feb-March 2016. Islamabad: LEAD, Pakistan.
. Saeed, A. 2013. “Floods have Halved Pakistan’s Economic Growth.”
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. -----------------. 2022. “Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas.” https://www.wri.org/data
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Millions of People, Trillions in Property at Risk from Flooding”. April 23,
2020. https://www.wri.org/
. World Bank. 2022a. “Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Pakistan.”
Poster template by ResearchPosters.co.za https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/pakistan.
. -----------------. 2022b. Country Climate and Development Report: Pakistan.