Chap 009
Chap 009
Chap 009
r9
Net Present Value and
Other
Investment Criteria
9-1
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2013 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Chapter Outline
• Capital Budgeting Process
• Payback
• Discounted Payback
• Profitability Index
9-2
Chapter Outline
(continued)
• The Average Accounting Return
• Payback
• Discounted Payback
• Profitability Index
9-4
Capital
Structu
re
Dividen Cost of
d Policy Capital
Profits Capital
or
Losses Budgeti
ng
9-5
Discounted cash flows
(Chiết khấu dòng tiền)
Profits Capital
or Budgeti
9-7
Losses ng
Uses of Capital
Budgeting
Replace Expand
Maintenance Current Product
or or
Obsolescence Current Service
9-8
Comparison
Valuations
Bond
0 1 2 3
P0 C C C
Common Stock M
0 1 2 3
P0 D1 D2 D3 D∞
Project
0 1 2 3
9-12
Our Task:
To determine if
we should
purchase the
project
9-13
And how will
we accomplish
our task?
9-14
B Bring
A All
E Expected
F Future
E Earnings
I Into
P Present
V Value
9-15 T Terms
Just remember:
BAEFEIPVT
9-16
Chapter Outline
• Payback
• Discounted Payback
• Profitability Index
9-17
Payback Period
Definition: How long does it take
to get the initial cost
back in a nominal sense?
Computation:
1. Estimate the cash flows
2. Subtract the future cash
flows from the initial
cost until the initial
investment has been
9-18
recovered
Project Example
Information
You are reviewing a new project and
have estimated the following cash flows:
Year 0: CF = -165,000
Year 1: CF = 63,120; NI = 13,620
Year 2: CF = 70,800; NI = 3,300
Year 3: CF = 91,080; NI = 29,100
Average Book Value = 72,000
Your required return for assets of this
risk level is 12%.
9-19
Discount rate
Cost of capital
(Chi phí vốn)
20
Project Example -
Visual
R = 12%
0 1 2 3
So….Deal or
No Deal?
9-26
Payback Decision
We need to know a
“management’s number. What
does the firm use for the
evaluation of its projects when
they use payback?
9-29
Good Decision
Criteria
We need to ask ourselves the
following questions when evaluating
capital budgeting decision rules:
9-31
4.Should we consider the payback
rule for our primary decision
Decision Criteria Test
- Payback
Q: So if Payback is not that great as
a capital budgeting technique, why
use it?
9-32
Payback’s
Advantages
• Easy to understand
and compute (you
just subtract!)
• Adjusts for
uncertainty of later
cash flows
• Biased toward
liquidity
9-33
Payback’s
Disadvantages
• Ignores the time value
of money
• Requires an arbitrary
cutoff point
• Ignores cash flows
beyond the cutoff date
• Biased against long-
term projects, such as
9-34
research and
Payback Period (PBP)
Ignores returns after the PBP
£000 Cash Flow A Cash Flow B
Yr 0 (2,000) (2,000)
Yr 1 500 500
Yr 2 500 500
Yr 3 400 400
Yr 4 500 500
Yr 5 300 300
Yr 6 200 20000
35
Payback Period (PBP)
Ignores timing
£000 Cash Flow C Cash Flow D
Yr 0 (20,000) (20,000)
Yr 1 500 15,000
Yr 2 500
500
Yr 3 4000 4000
Yr 4 15,000 500
Yr 5 3000 3000
Yr 6 2000 2000
36
Chapter Outline
• Capital Budgeting Process
• Payback
• Discounted Payback
• Profitability Index
9-37
Discounted Payback
Period
Definition: How long does it take
to get the initial cost back after
you bring all of the cash flows to
the present value.
Computation:
1. Estimate the present value of the
cash flows
2. Subtract the future cash flows
from the initial cost until the
9-38 initial investment has been
Discounted Payback
Computation Step 1
R = 12%
1 2 3
9-43
Decision Criteria Test
– Discounted Payback
1.Does the discounted payback rule
account for the time value of
money?
• Biased towards
liquidity
9-45
Discounted Payback’s
Disadvantages
• Requires an arbitrary
cutoff point
• Payback
• Discounted Payback
• Profitability Index
9-47
Net Present Value
Definition: The difference
between the market value of a
project and its cost
Computation:
1. Estimate the future cash flows
9-50
Net Present Value
Computation Step 1
R = 12%
1 2 3
9-54
TI BA II Plus
-165,000 = CF0
I = 12
CPT
NPV = ?
9-55
-165,000 = CF0 HP 12-C
63,120= CF1 70,800= CF2 90,080= CF3
I - 12 NPV = ?
12,627.41
9-56
Capital Budgeting
Decision Criteria
Comparison
Technique Unit Accept
s if:
Payback Time Payback <
Mgt’s #
Discounted Time Payback <
Payback Mgt’s #
9-57
Decision Criteria Test
- NPV
• Does the NPV rule account for
the time value of money?
9-60
Calculating NPVs with
a Spreadsheet
• Spreadsheets are an excellent
way to compute NPVs,
especially when you have to
compute the cash flows as well.
PV @9% = 1038.897
9-63
The intuition of IRR
and NPV
Interest rate: 9%
PV @9% = 1038.897
9-65
The intuition of IRR
and NPV
IRR of the bond: 11.085% >9% accept
9-66
The intuition of IRR
and NPV
Interest rate: 11.085%
9-67
The intuition of IRR
and NPV
IRR of the bond: 11.085%
9-69
Chapter Outline
• Capital Budgeting Process
• Payback
• Discounted Payback
• Profitability Index
9-70
Profitability Index
Definition: The PI measures the
benefit per unit cost of a project,
based on the time value of money. It
is very useful in situations where you
have multiple projects of hugely
different costs and/or limited capital
(capital rationing).
Computation:
PI = PV of Inflows/PV of Outflows
9-71
Profitability Index
Example
PI = PV of Inflows/ PV of
Outflows
$177,627/$165,000 =
1.0765
9-73
You only have 31 billion to invest in
these projects so you cannot choose
Capital Budgeting
Decision Criteria
Comparison
Technique Unit Accept
s if:
Payback Time Payback <
Mgt’s #
Discounted Time Payback <
Payback Mgt’s #
9-75
Profitability Index
Disadvantages
9-76
Chapter Outline
(continued)
• The Average Accounting Return
9-80
4.If we compare this to our firm’s
Decision Criteria
Comparison
Technique Unit Accept
s if:
Payback Time Payback <
Mgt’s #
Discounted Time Payback <
Payback Mgt’s #
9-81
Decision Criteria Test
- AAR
1.Does the AAR rule account for
the time value of money?
9-87
Computing IRR for
the Project
• If you do not have a financial
calculator, then this becomes a trial
and error process
• Calculator:
• Enter the cash flows as you did
with NPV
9-90
Discount rate
Cost of capital
(Chi phí vốn)
91
The NPV Payoff Profile for This
Example
If we graph NPV versus discount rate, we can see the
IRR as the x-axis intercept.
20% ($1.74)
$20.00
IRR = 19.44%
24% ($12.88)
28% ($22.17) $0.00
32% ($29.93) ($20.00)-1% 9% 19% 29% 39%
36% ($36.43) ($40.00)
40% ($41.86)
($60.00)
Discount rate
92
Capital Budgeting Decision Criteria
Comparison
Technique Unit Accept
s if:
Payback Time Payback <
Mgt’s #
Discounted Time Payback <
Payback Mgt’s #
9-95
• Usually provides a similar
Internal Rate of
Return
Disadvantages
• Uses the firm’s required rate
of return for comparison
purposes.
• Unusually high numbers can
often occur when a significant
amount of the project’s cash
flows occur early in the life of
the project.
9-96
Mutually Exclusive
Projects
Mutually exclusive projects:
If you choose one, you can’t choose the
other
Example: You can choose to attend
graduate school at either Harvard or
Stanford, but not both
9-99
NPV vs. IRR
• NPV and IRR will generally give us the
same decision
• Exceptions:
IRR = 10.11%
and 42.66%
9-101
Conflicts Between NPV
and IRR
• NPV directly
measures the
increase in value to
the firm.
• Whenever there is
a conflict between
NPV and another
decision rule, you
should
always use
NPV!
9-102
Chapter Outline
(continued)
• The Average Accounting Return
$ -165,000 TV = 249553.728
165,000(1+MIRR)3=249553.728
MIRR= (249553.728 /165,000)(1/3)-1= %14.787%
9-111
Ethics Issues II
9-112
Quick Quiz
Consider an investment that costs
$100,000 and has a cash inflow of
$25,000 every year for 5 years. The
required return is 9%, and required
payback is 4 years.
What is the payback period?
What is the discounted payback period?
What is the NPV?
What is the IRR?
Should we accept the project?
What decision rule should be the
primary decision method?
9-113
Comprehensive
Problem
1. An investment project has the
following cash flows: CF0 = -
1,000,000; C01 – C08 = 200,000
each
2. If the required rate of return is
12%, what decision should be
made using NPV?
3. How would the IRR decision rule
be used for this project, and
what decision would be
9-114
reached?
4. How are the above two
Terminology
• Capital budgeting
• Decision criteria
• Project’s cash flows
• Payback
• Discounted Payback
• Net Present Value (NPV)
• Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
• Modified IRR (MIRR)
9-115
Formulas
Profitability Index = PV of
Inflows
PV of
Outflows
9-116
Summary – Payback
Criteria
Payback period
Length of time until initial investment is
recovered
Take the project if it pays back within some
specified period
Doesn’t account for time value of money,
and there is an arbitrary cutoff period
Discounted payback period
Length of time until initial investment is
recovered on a discounted basis
Take the project if it pays back in some
specified period
9-117 There is an arbitrary cutoff period
Summary –
Discounted Cash Flow
Criteria
Net present value
Difference between market value and cost
Take the project if the NPV is positive
Has no serious problems
Preferred decision criterion
Internal rate of return
Discount rate that makes NPV = 0
Take the project if the IRR is greater than the
required return
Same decision as NPV with conventional cash flows
IRR is unreliable with nonconventional cash flows
or mutually exclusive projects
Profitability Index
Benefit-cost ratio
Take investment if PI > 1
Cannot be used to rank mutually exclusive projects
9-118 May be used to rank projects in the presence of
capital rationing
Key Concepts and
Skills
• Compute payback and
discounted payback & evaluate
their shortcomings
present value
What are the most
important topics of
this chapter?
1. Capital budgeting
techniques basically
involves comparing
anticipated cash flows to
that of a project’s cost
9-123