Statistical Inference

Mekelle University
College of Health Sciences
Department of Public Health
Epidemiology& Biostatistics Team
Tesfaye Hailu (Bsc.PH, MPH-Epidemiology)
E-mail: tesfayehailu2002@yahoo.com
 Inference

Use a random sample to learn something about a

larger population
 Inference
1. Two ways to make inference
A. Estimation of parameters
* Point Estimation
* Intervals Estimation
B. Hypothesis Testing
2. Purpose
 Make decisions about population characteristics
 Statistic Parameter

Mean: X estimates ____

Standard
deviation: s estimates ____

Proportion: p estimates ____

from entire
from sample
population
 Statistical Estimation
• Estimation: is the process of determining a
likely value for a variable in the survey
population, based on information collected
from the sample.

• Estimation is the use of sample statistics to

estimate population parameters.
 1.Point Estimate
• A single numerical value used to estimate the
corresponding population parameter

• A different sample could have come up with

different results. The amount of variation that
exists among the estimates from the different
possible samples is what makes the sampling
error
Example
Statistic Parameter

Mean: X estimates ____

Standard
deviation: s estimates ____

Proportion: p estimates ____

from entire
from sample
population
 2. Interval estimation
• Usually, we only have a sample and don’t
know the entire population.

• The probability of getting a sample statistic

value that is exactly equal to the
corresponding population parameter is usually
quite small.
 Cont...
• Scientists usually accept a 5% chance that the
range will not include the true population
value
• The range or interval is called 95% confidence
interval
 General formula

• Parameter = point Estimate + Z*SE

 Standard Error

S
Quantitative SE (Mean) =
Variable n

p(1-p)
Qualitative
SE (p) = n
Variable
 Example CI for Mean
An epidemiologist studied the blood glucose level
of a random sample of 100 patients. The mean
was 170, with a SD of 10.
 = X + Z
SE
SE = 10/10 = 1
Then CI:  = 170 + 1.96  1 168.04   ≥ 171.96
We are 95% confident that the population mean
is between 168.04 and 171.96
 Example CI for Proportion

In a survey of 140 asthmatics, 35% had

allergy to house dust. Construct the 95% CI for
the population proportion.
 = p + Z P(1-p) SE = 0.35(1-0.35) = 0.04
n 140
0.35 – 1.96  0.04   ≥ 0.35 + 1.96  0.04
0.27   ≥ 0.43
27%   ≥ 43%
 Cont...

We are 95% confident that the population

proportion is between 27% and 43%.
 Hypothesis Testing
• A statistical method that uses sample data to
evaluate a hypothesis about a population
parameter.
• It is intended to help researchers differentiate
between real and random patterns in the data.
• Hypothesis :
– A statement about two or more populations
– An assumption about population parameter
 Steps of Hypothesis testing
1. State the research question in terms of
statistical hypothesis.
• • The null hypothesis, H0 , is a statement
claiming that there is no difference b/n the
hypothesized value and the population value.
(The effect of interest is zero)
• The alternative hypothesis, H1, is a statement
that disagrees with the null hypothesis.
(The effect of interest is not zero)
 Steps ...
2. Select a sample and collect data
3. Decide on the appropriate test statistic for the
hypothesis (Z, t, χ2, F, etc.)
4. Select the level of significance for the
statistical test (α=0.05, 0.01, 0.001, etc.)
5. Determine the critical value.
6. Perform the calculation
7. Draw and state the conclusion.
Summary of One- and Two-Tail Tests…

One-Tail Test Two-Tail Test One-Tail Test

(left tail) (right tail)

11.19
 Two tail test (conclusion)

stat is “small” stat is “large”

• The rejection region is set up so we can reject the null

hypothesis when the test statistic is large or when it is small.
11.20
 Another way ( conclusion)

• Reject the null hypothesis if P < α.

• Accept the null hypothesis if P ≥α,

• P-Value: is the probability of getting a sample

statistic at least as extreme as the calculated
statistic if the null hypothesis is True
 Concept (NB.)
• The two possible decisions that can be made:

 Conclude that there is enough evidence to support the

alternative hypothesis
(also stated as: reject the null hypothesis in favor of the
alternative)

 Conclude that there is not enough evidence to support the

alternative hypothesis
(also stated as: failing to reject the null hypothesis in favor of the
alternative)

11.22
 Errors in HT
• The null hypothesis is either true or false.
• Correspondingly, Ho is either not rejected or rejected
• Type I error: rejecting the null hypothesis when it is
true.
* The probability of making a type I error is denoted by α.
• Type II error: not rejecting the null hypothesis when it
is actually false.
* The probability of making a type II error is denoted by
β.
Power: 1- β
 Type I and Type II Errors
True State of Nature
The null The null
hypothesis is hypothesis is
true false

Type I error
We decide to (rejecting a true Correct
reject the null hypothesis) decision
null hypothesis
Decision

Type II error
We fail to Correct (Accepting a false
reject the decision null hypothesis)
null hypothesis

 Hypothesis testing about mean
Example:
• Researchers are interested in the mean level
of some enzyme in a certain population. They
are asking: can we conclude that the mean
enzyme level in this population is different
from 25?
• Solution : Steps ???
 Cont...
• Step 1: H0: μ = 25
H1: μ ≠ 25
• Step 2: They collect a sample of size 10 from a normally distributed population with a
• known variance, σ2 = 45.
• The calculated
• sample mean is = 22.
• Step 3:
• Testing a hypothesis about population mean
• • The population is normally distributed
• • Population variance is known
• ⇒ Z ‐ statistic is the appropriate one

• Z = x- μo
σ / √n
 Cont...
• Step 4: α = 0.05
• Step 5.
 Cont...
• Step 6. Z=22-25/√45/10= -1.41???
Step 7.conclusion
-1.41<-1.96 dont reject Ho.

The mean enzyme level in the population is

not different from 25.
 Hypothesis testing about
proportion
• Example
•In a survey of diabetics in a large city, it was
found that 100 out of 400 have diabetic foot. Can
we conclude that 20 percent of diabetics in the
sampled population have diabetic foot.
• Test at the a =0.05 significance level.
 Solution
0.25 – 0.20
Ho: π = 0.20
H1: π  0.20 Z= 0.20 (1- 0.20) = 2.50
400

Critical Value: 1.96

Decision:
Reject Reject We have sufficient evidence to reject the Ho
value of 20%
.025 .025
We conclude that in the population of diabetic
the proportion who have diabetic foot does
not equal 0.20
-1.96 0 +1.96 Z
 Sample size determination
• Why ???
• In studies concerned with estimating some
characteristic of a population (e.g. The
prevalence of asthmatic children), sample
size calculations are important to ensure that
estimates are obtained with required
precision or confidence.
 Sample size determination
Sample size determination depends on the:
• objective of the study;
• design of the study;
• plan for statistical analysis;
• accuracy of the measurements to be made
• degree of precision required for
generalization;
• degree of confidence with which to conclude.
 Minimum Sample Size: Mean and
Proportion
• Minimum •re quired sam
• ple size• i n estimati
• ng the pop
• ulation
•• • m:
• mean,
• •• •za2• s2
• • • • • •n = • 2

• • B2
• Bound of• e stimate:
• s
• • • • B• •=• z a
• 2• n

• Minimum •re quired sam

• ple size• i n estimati
• ng the pop
• ulation
• proportion
• •• , p$
••• •za2 pq
• • • • •• •n =•
•
2

• B2
 Example
•• AAmarketing
marketingresearch
researchfirm
firmwants
wantstotoconduct
conductaasurvey
surveytotoestimate
estimatethethe
averageamount
average amountspent
spenton
onentertainment
entertainmentby byeach
eachperson
personvisiting
visitingaapopular
popular
resort. The
resort. Thepeople
peoplewho
whoplan
planthe
thesurvey
surveywould
wouldlike
liketotodetermine
determinethethe
averageamount
average amountspent
spentby
byall
allpeople
peoplevisiting
visitingthe
theresort
resorttotowithin
within$120,
$120,withwith
95%confidence.
95% confidence. From
Frompast
pastoperation
operationof ofthe
theresort,
resort,ananestimate
estimateofofthethe
populationstandard
population standarddeviation
deviationisis ss==$400.
$400. What
Whatisisthe
theminimum
minimumrequired
required
samplesize?
sample size?
 Solution
z 
2 2

n 2

B 2

(196
. ) (400) 2 2


120 2

42.684 43