Discrete Probability Distributions

Prof. Rushen Chahal

Discrete Probability Distributions

    

Random Variables Discrete Probability Distributions Expected Value and Variance The Binomial Probability Distribution The Poisson Probability Distribution

Random Variables


A random variable is a numerical description of the outcome of an experiment. A discrete random variable may assume either a finite number of values or an infinite sequence of values.

Finite and Infinite Values for Discrete Random Variables Discrete random variable with a finite number of values: Let x = number of TV sets sold in one day where x can take on 5 values (0, 1, 2, 3, 4) Discrete random variable with an infinite sequence of values: Let x = number of customers arriving in one day where x can take on the values 0, 1, 2, . . . We can count the customers arriving, but there is no finite upper limit on the number that might arrive.
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Discrete Random Variables



A CPA examination has 4 parts. We can define a discrete random variable as x = the number of parts of CPA exam passed This discrete random variable may assume finite number of values of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4. We may make a call to sell a product. We can define a discrete random variable x. x = 1 if we sell, x = 0 if we dont.

Continuous Random Variables



A continuous random variable may assume any numerical value in an interval or collection of intervals. x = the time between arrival of two customers into a supper market. x = the exact weight of an individual

Practice


187187-188 Problem 1 Problem 2 Problem 3

Probability Distributions


The probability distribution for a random variable describes how probabilities are distributed over the values of the random variable. The probability distribution is defined by a probability function, denoted by function, f(x), which provides the probability for each value of the random variable.
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Discrete Probability Distributions



The required conditions for a discrete probability function are: f (x ) > 0 7f ( x ) = 1

We can describe a discrete probability distribution with a table, graph, or equation.

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Using Data to Compute Probabilities



Using past data on TV sales (below left), a tabular representation of the probability distribution for TV sales (below right) was developed. Number x f (x ) Units Sold of Days 0 80 0 .40 1 50 1 .25 2 40 2 .20 3 10 3 .05 4 20 4 .10 200 1.00
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Graphical Representation of A Discrete Probability Distribution A graphical representation of the probability distribution for TV sales in one day
.50
Probability

.40 .30 .20 .10 0 1 2 3 4

Values of Random Variable x (TV sales)

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A Discrete Uniform Probability Distribution



Discrete Uniform Probability Distribution f(x) = 1/n (n is the number of values that x takes) Rolling a die f(x) 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6

x 1 2 3 4 5 6

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Expected Value and Variance



The expected value, or mean, of a random variable is value, a measure of its central location. Expected value of a discrete random variable: E (x ) = Q = 7xf (x ) The variance summarizes the variability in the values of a random variable. Variance of a discrete random variable: Var(x Var(x ) = W 2 = 7(x - Q )2f (x ) The standard deviation, W, is defined as the positive deviation, square root of the variance.

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Example


Expected Value of a Discrete Random Variable x 0 1 2 3 4 f (x ) .40 .25 .20 .05 .10

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Example


Expected Value of a Discrete Random Variable x f (x ) xf (x ) --------------------------0 .40 .00 1 .25 .25 2 .20 .40 3 .05 .15 4 .10 .40 1.20 = E (x ) The expected number of TV sets sold in a day is 1.2 Now Calculate the standard deviation
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Example: JSL Appliances



Variance and Standard Deviation of a Discrete Random Variable x x-Q (x - Q )2 f (x )

_____ _________ ___________

_______

_______________

(x (x - Q )2f (x )

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Example: JSL Appliances



Variance and Standard Deviation of a Discrete Random Variable x x-Q (x - Q )2 f (x )

_____ _________ ___________

_______

_______________

(x (x - Q )2f (x )

.576 .010 .128 .162 .784 1.660 = W  The variance of daily sales is 1.66 TV sets squared. The standard deviation of sales is 1.29 TV sets.
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0 1 2 3 4

-1.2 -0.2 0.8 1.8 2.8

1.44 0.04 0.64 3.24 7.84

.40 .25 .20 .05 .10

The Binomial Probability Distribution



Properties of a Binomial Experiment The experiment consists of a sequence of n identical trials.

Two outcomes, success and failure, are possible on failure, each trial. The probability of a success, denoted by p, does not change from trial to trial. The trials are independent. independent.
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Examples


Toss a coin Define tail as success and head as failure f(S) = .5 f(F) = .5 Roll a die Define 1 as success, any other number as failure f(S) = 1/6 f(F)= 5/6

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Example: Evans Electronics



Binomial Probability Distribution Evans is concerned about a low retention rate for employees. employees. On the basis of past experience, management has seen a turnover of 10% of the hourly employees 10% annually. annually. Thus, for any hourly employees chosen at random, management estimates a probability of 0.1 that the person will not be with the company next year. year. Choosing 3 hourly employees a random, what is the probability that 1 of them will leave the company this year? Let: Let: p = .10, n = 3, x = 1 10,

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Example: Evans Electronics



Using the Tables of Binomial Probabilities

n 3

x 0 1 2 3

.10 .7290 .2430 .0270 .0010

.15 .6141 .3251 .0574 .0034

.20 .5120 .3840 .0960 .0080

.25 .4219 .4219 .1406 .0156

p .30 .3430 .4410 .1890 .0270

.35 .2746 .4436 .2389 .0429

.40 .2160 .4320 .2880 .0640

.45 .1664 .4084 .3341 .0911

.50 .1250 .3750 .3750 .1250

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Example: Evans Electronics



Using a Tree Diagram

First Worker Second Worker Leaves (.1) Third Worker L (.1) S (.9) L (.1) Stays (.9) S (.9) L (.1) Leaves (.1) S (.9) 1 2 1 L (.1) Stays (.9) S (.9) 1 0 .0810 .0090 .0810 .0810 .7290
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Value of x 3 2 2

Probab. .0010 .0090 .0090

Leaves (.1)

Stays (.9)

The Binomial Probability Distribution



Expected Value E (x ) = Q = np Variance Var(x Var(x ) = W 2 = np (1 - p ) Standard Deviation

SD( x ) ! W ! np (1  p)


Example: Evans Electronics E (x ) = Q = 3(.1) = .3 employees out of 3 Var(x Var(x ) = W2 = 3(.1)(.9) = .27

SD( x) ! W ! 3(.1)(.9) ! .52 employees

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The Poisson Probability Distribution



Arrival of customers to a service station generally has Poisson distribution. Arrival of cars to a service station. Arrival of people to a restaurant. Arrival airplanes to an airport. Properties of a Poisson Experiment The probability of an occurrence is the same for any two intervals of equal length. The occurrence or nonoccurrence in any interval is independent of the occurrence or nonoccurrence in any other interval.
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Example: Mercy Hospital

Patients arrive at the emergency room of Mercy Hospital at the average rate of 6 per hour on weekend evenings. What is the probability of 4 arrivals in 30 minutes on a weekend evening?


Using the Poisson Probability Function Q = 6/hour = 3/half-hour, x = 4 3/half-

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Example: Mercy Hospital



Using the Tables of Poisson Probabilities

Q x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2.1 .1225 .2572 .2700 .1890 .0992 .0417 .0146 .0044 .0011 .0003 .0001 .0000 .0000 2.2 .1108 .2438 .2681 .1966 .1082 .0476 .0174 .0055 .0015 .0004 .0001 .0000 .0000 2.3 .1003 .2306 .2652 .2033 .1169 .0538 .0206 .0068 .0019 .0005 .0001 .0000 .0000 2.4 .0907 .2177 .2613 .2090 .1254 .0602 .0241 .0083 .0025 .0007 .0002 .0000 .0000 2.5 .0821 .2052 .2565 .2138 .1336 ..0668 .0278 .0099 .0031 .0009 .0002 .0000 .0000 2.6 .0743 .1931 .2510 .2176 .1414 .0735 .0319 .0118 .0038 .0011 .0003 .0001 .0000 2.7 .0672 .1815 .2450 .2205 .1488 .0804 .0362 .0139 .0047 .0014 .0004 .0001 .0000 2.8 .0608 .1703 .2384 .2225 .1557 .0872 .0407 .0163 .0057 .0018 .0005 .0001 .0000 2.9 .0550 .1596 .2314 .2237 .1622 .0940 .0455 .0188 .0068 .0022 .0006 .0002 .0000 3.0 .0498 .1494 .2240 .2240 .1680 .1008 .0504 .0216 .0081 .0027 .0008 .0002 .0001

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Example
Data was collected for 128 random intervals of 5 minutes in weekday mornings over a period of several weeks.

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The Mean Value

Before using Poisson distribution in our example, we need to estimate Q

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The Poisson Probability Distribution Table for Q = 5

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The Poisson Probability Distribution Table for Q = 5

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The Poisson Probability Distribution Table for Q = 5

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Example: Troy Parking Garage

In studying the need for an additional entrance to a city parking garage, a consultant has recommended an approach that is applicable only in situations where the number of cars entering during a specified time period follows a Poisson distribution. A random sample of 100 one-minute time intervals resulted in onethe customer arrivals listed below. A statistical test must be conducted to see if the assumption of a Poisson distribution is reasonable. # Arrivals 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Frequency 0 1 4 10 14 20 12 12 9 8 6 3 1
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Example: Troy Parking Garage

x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 >=12 Total f (x ) .0025 .0149 .0446 .0892 .1339 .1620 .1606 .1389 .1041 .0694 .0417 .0227 .0155 1.0000
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Poisson Approximation of Binomial Distribution

The Poisson probability distribution can be used as an approximation of the binomial probability distribution when p, the probability of success, is small and n, the number of trials, is large. Approximation is good when p < .05 and n > 20 Set Q = np and use the Poisson tables.

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Poisson Approximation of Binomial Distribution

We want to compute the binomial probability of x=3 success in 20 trials when p=.01. 1) Compute it using binomial table 2) Compute it using Poisson table

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The End

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