Inference about Means with Two

Populations

Chapter 10

Slide
1
 Overview
Inferences About the Difference
Between Two Population Means:

s 1 and s 2 Known
Inferences About the Difference
Between Two Population Means:

s 1 and s 2 Unknown

Inferences About the Difference

Between Two Population Means:
Matched Samples

Slide
2
Inferences About the Difference Between
Two Population Means: s 1 and s 2 Known

Interval Estimation of m 1 –m 2

Hypothesis Tests About m 1 –m 2

Slide
3
 Estimating the Difference Between
Two Population Means
 Let 1 equal the mean of population 1 and 2
equal
 the difference
The mean of population 2. two population
between the
means is
1 - 2.
 To estimate 1 - 2, we will select a simple
random
sample of size n1 from population 1 and a
 simple
Let x1 equal the mean of sample 1x2and
random
equal thesample of size n2 from population 2.
mean
 The of sample
point 2. of the difference between
estimator
the x1  x2
means of the populations 1 and 2 is .
Slide
4
Sampling Distribution of x1  x2

 Expected Value
E ( x1  x2 ) 1   2

 Standard Deviation (Standard Error)

12  22
 x1  x2  
n1 n2

where: 1 = standard deviation of population 1

2 = standard deviation of population 2
n1 = sample size from population 1
n2 = sample size from population 2
Slide
5
 Interval Estimation of 1 - 2:
s 1 and s 2 Known
 Interval Estimate

 12  22
x1  x2 z / 2 
n1 n2

where:
1 -  is the confidence coefficient

Slide
6
 Interval Estimation of 1 - 2:
s 1 and s 2 Known
 Example: Par, Inc.
Par, Inc. is a manufacturer of golf
equipment and
has developed a new golf ball that has been
designed to provide “extra distance.”
In a test of driving distance using a
mechanical
driving device, a sample of Par golf balls was
compared with a sample of golf balls made by
Rap,
Ltd., a competitor. The sample statistics appear
on
the next slide.
Slide
7
 Interval Estimation of 1 - 2:
s 1 and s 2 Known
 Example: Par, Inc.

Sample #1 Sample #2
Par, Inc. Rap, Ltd.
Sample Size 120 balls 80 balls
Sample Mean 295 yards 278 yards

Based on data from previous driving distance

tests, the two population standard deviations are
known with s 1 = 15 yards and s 2 = 20 yards.

Slide
8
 Interval Estimation of 1 - 2:
s 1 and s 2 Known
 Example: Par, Inc.
Let us develop a 95% confidence interval
estimate
of the difference between the mean driving
distances of
the two brands of golf ball.

Slide
9
 Estimating the Difference Between
Two Population Means
Population 1 Population 2
Par, Inc. Golf Balls Rap, Ltd. Golf Balls
m1 = mean driving m2 = mean driving
distance of Par distance of Rap
golf balls golf balls
m1 – m2 = difference between
the mean distances
Simple random sample Simple random sample
of n1 Par golf balls of n2 Rap golf balls
x1 = sample mean distance x2 = sample mean distance
for the Par golf balls for the Rap golf balls
x1 - x2 = Point Estimate of
m1 – m2
Slide
10
 Point Estimate of 1 - 2

Point estimate of 1 - 2 =x1  x2

= 295 - 278
= 17 yards
where:
1 = mean distance for the population
of Par, Inc. golf balls
2 = mean distance for the population
of Rap, Ltd. golf balls

Slide
11
 Interval Estimation of 1 - 2:
 1 and  2 Known

12  22 (15) 2 ( 20) 2

x1  x2 z / 2  17 1. 96 
n1 n2 120 80
17 + 5.14 or 11.86 yards to 22.14 yards
We are 95% confident that the difference between
the mean driving distances of Par, Inc. balls and Rap,
Ltd. balls is 11.86 to 22.14 yards.

Slide
12
 Hypothesis Tests About m 1 - m 2:
s 1 and s 2 Known
 Hypotheses

H 0: 1  2 D0 H 0: 1  2 D0 H 0: 1  2 D0

H a: 1  2  D0 H a: 1  2  D0 H a: 1  2 D0
Left-tailed Right-tailed Two-tailed
 Test Statistic

( x1  x2 )  D0
z
 12  22

n1 n2

Slide
13
 Hypothesis Tests About m 1 - m 2:
s 1 and s 2 Known
 Example: Par, Inc.

Sample #1 Sample #2
Par, Inc. Rap, Ltd.
Sample Size 120 balls 80 balls
Sample Mean 295 yards 278 yards

Based on data from previous driving distance

tests, the two population standard deviations are
known with s 1 = 15 yards and s 2 = 20 yards.

Slide
14
 Hypothesis Tests About m 1 - m 2:
s 1 and s 2 Known
 Example: Par, Inc.
Can we conclude, using a = .01, that the
mean driving distance of Par, Inc. golf balls is
greater than the mean driving distance of Rap,
Ltd.
golf balls?

Slide
15
 Hypothesis Tests About m 1 - m 2:
s 1 and s 2 Known
 p –Value and Critical Value Approaches

1. Develop the hypotheses. H0: 1 - 2 < 0 

Ha: 1 - 2 > 0
where:
1 = mean distance for the population
of Par, Inc. golf balls
2 = mean distance for the population
of Rap, Ltd. golf balls
a = .01
2. Specify the level of significance.

Slide
16
 Hypothesis Tests About m 1 - m 2:
s 1 and s 2 Known
 p –Value and Critical Value Approaches

3. Compute the value of the test statistic.

(x1  x2 )  D0
z
 12  22

n1 n2
(295  278)  0 17
z   6.49
(15)2 (20)2 2.62

120 80

Slide
17
 Hypothesis Tests About m 1 - m 2:
s 1 and s 2 Known
 p –Value Approach

4. Compute the p–value.

For z = 6.49, the p –value < .0001.

5. Determine whether to reject H0.

Because p–value < a = .01, we reject H0.
At the .01 level of significance, the sample
evidence
indicates the mean driving distance of Par, Inc.
golf
balls is greater than the mean driving distance
of Rap,
Ltd. golf balls. Slide
18
 Hypothesis Tests About m 1 - m 2:
s 1 and s 2 Known
 Critical Value Approach

4. Determine the critical value and rejection rule.

For a = .01, z.01 = 2.33

Reject H0 if z > 2.33

5. Determine whether to reject H0.

Because z = 6.49 > 2.33, we reject H0.
The sample evidence indicates the mean
driving
distance of Par, Inc. golf balls is greater than the
mean
driving distance of Rap, Ltd. golf balls. Slide
19
Inferences About the Difference Between
Two Population Means: s 1 and s 2
Unknown

Interval Estimation of m 1 – m 2
Hypothesis Tests About m 1 – m 2

Slide
20
 Interval Estimation of 1 - 2:
s 1 and s 2 Unknown
When s 1 and s 2 are unknown, we will:
• use the sample standard deviations s1 and s2
as estimates of s 1 and s 2 , and
• replace za/2 with ta/2.

Slide
21
 Interval Estimation of 1 - 2:
s 1 and s 2 Unknown
 Interval Estimate

s12 s22
x1  x2 t / 2 
n1 n2

Where the degrees of freedom for ta/2 are:

2
s s 
2 2

  
1 2

 n1 n2 
df  2 2
1  s1 2
1  s2 
2

    
n1  1  n1  n2  1  n2 

Slide
22
 Difference Between Two Population
Means:
s 1 and s 2 Unknown
 Example: Specific Motors
Specific Motors of Detroit has developed a
new
Automobile known as the M car. 24 M cars and
28 J
cars (from Japan) were road tested to compare
miles-
per-gallon (mpg) performance. The sample
statistics
are shown on the next slide.

Slide
23
 Difference Between Two Population
Means:
s 1 and s 2 Unknown
 Example: Specific Motors

Sample #1 Sample #2
M Cars J Cars
24 cars 28 cars Sample Size
29.8 mpg 27.3 mpgSample Mean
2.56 mpg 1.81 mpgSample Std. Dev.

Slide
24
 Difference Between Two Population
Means:
s 1 and s 2 Unknown
 Example: Specific Motors
Let us develop a 90% confidence interval
estimate
of the difference between the mpg
performances of
the two models of automobile.

Slide
25
 Point Estimate of m 1 - m 2

Point estimate of 1 - 2 =x1  x2

= 29.8 - 27.3
= 2.5 mpg
where:
1 = mean miles-per-gallon for the
population of M cars
2 = mean miles-per-gallon for the
population of J cars

Slide
26
 Interval Estimation of m 1 - m 2:
s 1 and s 2 Unknown
The degrees of freedom for ta/2 are:
2
 (2.56) (1.81) 
2 2

  
 24 28 
df  40.566 41
2 2 2 2
1  (2.56)  1  (1.81) 
    
24  1  24  28  1  28 

With a/2 = .05 and df = 41, ta/2 = 1.683

Slide
27
 Interval Estimation of m 1 - m 2:
s 1 and s 2 Unknown

s12 s22 (2.56) 2 (1.81) 2

x1  x2  t / 2  29.8  27.3  1.711 
n1 n2 24 28
2.5 + 1.069 or 1.431 to 3.569 mpg

We are 90% confident that the difference between

the miles-per-gallon performances of M cars and J cars
is 1.431 to 3.569 mpg.

Slide
28
 Hypothesis Tests About m 1 - m 2:
s 1 and s 2 Unknown
 Hypotheses

H 0: 1  2 D0 H 0: 1  2 D0 H 0: 1  2 D0

H a: 1   2  D0 H a: 1  2  D0 H a: 1  2 D0
Left-tailed Right-tailed Two-tailed
 Test Statistic

( x1  x2 )  D0
t
s12 s22

n1 n2

Slide
29
 Hypothesis Tests About m 1 - m 2:
s 1 and s 2 Unknown
 Example: Specific Motors

Sample #1 Sample #2
M Cars J Cars
24 cars 28 cars Sample Size
29.8 mpg 27.3 mpgSample Mean
2.56 mpg 1.81 mpgSample Std. Dev.

Slide
30
 Hypothesis Tests About m 1 - m 2:
s 1 and s 2 Unknown
 Example: Specific Motors
Can we conclude, using a .05 level of
significance, that the miles-per-gallon (mpg)
performance of M cars is greater than the miles-
per-gallon performance of J cars?

Slide
31
 Hypothesis Tests About m 1 - m 2:
s 1 and s 2 Unknown
 p –Value and Critical Value Approaches

1. Develop the hypotheses.

H0: 1 - 2 < 0 
Ha: 1 - 2 > 0
where:
1 = mean mpg for the population of M cars
2 = mean mpg for the population of J cars

Slide
32
 Hypothesis Tests About m 1 - m 2:
s 1 and s 2 Unknown
 p –Value and Critical Value Approaches

a = .05
2. Specify the level of significance.

3. Compute the value of the test statistic.

( x1  x2 )  D0 (29.8  27.3)  0
t   4.003
2 2 2 2
s s (2.56) (1.81)
1
 2

n1 n2 24 28

Slide
33
 Hypothesis Tests About m 1 - m 2:
s 1 and s 2 Unknown
 p –Value Approach

4. Compute the p –value.

The degrees of freedom for ta are:
2
 (2.56) (1.81) 
2 2

  
 24 28 
df  2 2
40.566 41
1  (2.56) 2  1  (1.81) 2 
    
24  1  24  28  1  28 
Because t = 4.003 > t.05 = 1.683, the p–value < .05.
In fact, the p–value < .005.

Slide
34
 Hypothesis Tests About m 1 - m 2:
s 1 and s 2 Unknown
 p –Value Approach

5. Determine whether to reject H0.

Because p–value < a = .05, we reject H0.
We are at least 95% confident that the
miles-per-gallon (mpg) performance of M
cars is greater than the miles-per-gallon
performance of J cars?.

Slide
35
 Hypothesis Tests About m 1 - m 2:
s 1 and s 2 Unknown
 Critical Value Approach

4. Determine the critical value and rejection rule.

For a = .05 and df = 41, t.05 = 1.683
Reject H0 if t > 1.683

5. Determine whether to reject H0.

Because 4.003 > 1.683, we reject H0.
We are at least 95% confident that the
miles-per-gallon (mpg) performance of M
cars is greater than the miles-per-gallon
performance of J cars?.
Slide
36
Inferences About the Difference Between
Two Population Means: Matched Samples

Slide
37
 Inferences About the Difference Between
Two Population Means: Matched Samples
 With a matched-sample design each sampled item
provides a pair of data values.
 This design often leads to a smaller sampling
error
than the independent-sample design
because
variation between sampled items is
eliminated as a
source of sampling error.

Slide
38
Inferences About the Difference Between
Two Population Means: Matched Samples
 Example: Express Deliveries
A Chicago-based firm has documents that
must
be quickly distributed to district offices
throughout
the U.S. The firm must decide between two
delivery
services, UPX (United Parcel Express) and
INTEX
(International Express), to transport its
documents.

Slide
39
Inferences About the Difference Between
Two Population Means: Matched Samples
 Example: Express Deliveries
In testing the delivery times of the two
services,
the firm sent two reports to a random sample
of its
district offices with one report carried by UPX
and
the other report carried by INTEX. Do the data
on
the next slide indicate a difference in mean
delivery
times for the two services? Use a .05 level of
significance. Slide
40
Inferences About the Difference Between
Two Population Means: Matched Samples

Delivery Time (Hours)

District Office UPX INTEX Difference
Seattle 32 25 7
Los Angeles 30 24 6
Boston 19 15 4
Cleveland 16 15 1
New York 15 13 2
Houston 18 15 3
Atlanta 14 15 -1
St. Louis 10 8 2
Milwaukee 7 9 -2
Denver 16 11 5

Slide
41
 Inferences About the Difference Between
Two Population Means: Matched Samples
 p –Value and Critical Value Approaches

1. Develop the hypotheses.

H0: d = 0 
Ha: d 
Let d = the mean of the difference values for the
two delivery services for the population
of district offices

Slide
42
 Inferences About the Difference Between
Two Population Means: Matched Samples
 p –Value and Critical Value Approaches

a = .05
2. Specify the level of significance.

3. Compute the value of the test statistic.

 di ( 7  6... 5)
d   2. 7
n 10
2
 ( di  d ) 76.1
sd   2. 9
n 1 9
d  d 2.7  0
t   2.94
sd n 2.9 10

Slide
43
 Inferences About the Difference Between
Two Population Means: Matched Samples
 p –Value Approach

4. Compute the p –value.

For t = 2.94 and df = 9, the p–value is

between
.02 and .01. (This is a two-tailed test, so we
double the upper-tail areas of .01 and .005.)
5. Determine whether to reject H0.
Because p–value < a = .05, we reject H0.
We are at least 95% confident that
there is a difference in mean delivery
times for the two services?

Slide
44
 Inferences About the Difference Between
Two Population Means: Matched Samples
 Critical Value Approach

4. Determine the critical value and rejection rule.

For a = .05 and df = 9, t.025 = 2.262.

Reject H0 if t > 2.262

5. Determine whether to reject H0.

Because t = 2.94 > 2.262, we reject H0.
We are at least 95% confident that there
is a difference in mean delivery times for
the two services?

Slide
45