The study explores the heightened volatility in the natural gas market resulting from the recent health crisis. Utilizing ARMA-Spline-GARCH, ARMA-Spline-GJR models, and PLS regression, an analysis of daily data from January 7, 1997, to December 31, 2021, reveals an accentuated volatility during the crisis, primarily driven by extreme weather conditions and natural gas storage dynamics. The PLS regression underscores eight significant components, with the dominant two explaining over 50% of the crisis’s impact. As the market navigates towards recovery, strategic risk management and adaptative measures become paramount for stability. These insights are instrumental for stakeholders and policymakers in developing responsive strategies to mitigate risks, highlighting the intricate interplay of historical and emergent factors shaping the market’s landscape. The findings underscore the necessity for resilience and adaptability amidst evolving global challenges to ensure the market’s sustainable future.

中文翻译：

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不断变化的能源：分析天然气市场近期挑战中的稳定性


该研究探讨了最近的健康危机导致天然气市场波动加剧的问题。利用 ARMA-Spline-GARCH、ARMA-Spline-GJR 模型和 PLS 回归，对 1997 年 1 月 7 日至 2021 年 12 月 31 日的每日数据进行分析，揭示了危机期间波动加剧，这主要是由极端天气条件和天然气储存动态。 PLS 回归强调了八个重要组成部分，其中占主导地位的两个组成部分解释了超过 50% 的危机影响。随着市场走向复苏，战略风险管理和适应性措施对于稳定至关重要。这些见解有助于利益相关者和政策制定者制定应对策略以降低风险，突显塑造市场格局的历史因素和新兴因素之间错综复杂的相互作用。研究结果强调了在不断变化的全球挑战中保持弹性和适应性的必要性，以确保市场可持续的未来。