We estimate the effect of temperature, wind speed, solar radiation, and precipitation on wholesale electricity prices for six European countries, analyzing the full distribution of the weather variables. We provide evidence on nonlinear and extreme weather effects on electricity prices. In all countries, reductions in temperature below a certain threshold increase electricity prices, yet these thresholds tend to be lower for colder countries than for warmer ones. In addition, warmer countries have an upper threshold above which temperatures also increase prices. The precipitation threshold is near the maximum for countries with limited hydroelectric generation and much lower for others with high hydropower capacity, such as Norway. Wind speed has a similar effect on electricity prices across countries, while irradiance has a statistically significant effect in countries with the highest solar capacity and higher average irradiance. Ultimately, the impact of weather conditions on electricity prices is influenced by a country's initial climatic conditions, generation mix, policies, energy efficiency levels, and behavioral factors. Policies aimed at reducing the disproportionately negative impacts of climate change on vulnerable populations should ideally be informed by accurate quantification of the impact of weather on electricity prices.

中文翻译：

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天气状况、气候变化和电价


我们评估了温度、风速、太阳辐射和降水对六个欧洲国家批发电价的影响，分析了天气变量的完整分布。我们提供非线性和极端天气对电价影响的证据。在所有国家，气温降低到一定阈值以下都会导致电价上涨，但寒冷国家的阈值往往低于温暖国家。此外，较温暖的国家有一个上限，高于该上限温度也会导致价格上涨。对于水力发电有限的国家来说，降水阈值接近最大值，而对于挪威等水力发电能力较高的国家来说，降水阈值要低得多。风速对各国的电价有类似的影响，而辐照度在太阳能容量最高和平均辐照度较高的国家具有统计上显着的影响。最终，天气条件对电价的影响受到一个国家的初始气候条件、发电结构、政策、能源效率水平和行为因素的影响。理想情况下，旨在减少气候变化对弱势群体造成的过度负面影响的政策应该通过准确量化天气对电价的影响来制定。