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35. Figure 6: The media multiplier internationally Notes: The figure plots shows the average multiplierdt = 1 + 1−χ χ h ∑−9 τ=0 ωτ (πdt−τ) i for destination countries d in the period 1989 to 2022. The events data here is the best estimate of fatalities from UCDP. The news-based beliefs are constructed from a corpus of 6 million international news articles that we categorize into good and bad news with a topic model. We code an article as bad news, Bdt, if topics covering armed conflict, police abuses or the military dominate the article.
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36. Figure B13: Domain-transfer: terror attack on tourists in Sri-Lanka April 2019 2 0 1 7 / 1 2 0 1 7 / 2 2 0 1 7 / 3 2 0 1 7 / 4 2 0 1 7 / 5 2 0 1 7 / 6 2 0 1 7 / 7 2 0 1 7 / 8 2 0 1 7 / 9 2 0 1 7 / 1 0 2 0 1 7 / 1 1 2 0 1 7 / 1 2 2 0 1 8 / 1 2 0 1 8 / 2 2 0 1 8 / 3 2 0 1 8 / 4 2 0 1 8 / 5 2 0 1 8 / 6 2 0 1 8 / 7 2 0 1 8 / 8 2 0 1 8 / 9 2 0 1 8 / 1 0 2 0 1 8 / 1 1 2 0 1 8 / 1 2 2 0 1 9 / 1 2 0 1 9 / 2 2 0 1 9 / 3 2 0 1 9 / 4 2 0 1 9 / 5 2 0 1 9 / 6 2 0 1 9 / 7 2 0 1 9 / 8 2 0 1 9 / 9 2 0 1 9 / 1 0 2 0 1 9 / 1 1 2 0 1 9 / 1 2 2 0 2 0 / 1 2 0 2 0 / 2 2 0 2 0 / 3 2 0 2 0 / 4 2 0 2 0 / 5 2 0 2 0 / 6 2 0 2 0 / 7 2 0 2 0 / 8 2 0 2 0 / 9 2 0 2 0 / 1 0 2 0 2 0 / 1 1 2 0 2 0 / 1 2
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66. To understand these numbers take the case of Tunisia, which had 3.48 billion USD in tourism receipts in 2010. This implies that eyb = 3.48/12 and the monthly loss is given by 3.48/12 − e((ln(3.48/12))+(−0.165)), where-0.165 is the average treatment on dyads into Tunisia in the period 2011-2016.
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67. We do this simply by giving every destination country the average treatment value coming out of all origin countries and applying it to the total tourism revenues measured at baseline in 2010.
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