Abstract: Present-day flood estimation practise is underpinned by the assumption that flood risk ... more Abstract: Present-day flood estimation practise is underpinned by the assumption that flood risk in a future climate will reflect historical flood risk as represented by the instrumental record. This assumption, which is commonly referred to as the assumption of stationarity, recently has been questioned as a result of both an increased appreciation of the natural variability in our hydroclimate at temporal scales beyond that of the instrumental record, as well as the projected intensification of the hydrologic cycle due to anthropogenic climate change. These developments have led some authors to suggest that the stationarity assumption should henceforth be considered invalid, thereby calling into question all the methods that are underpinned by it, including flood frequency analysis using observed streamflow records, and rainfall-runoff modelling informed by instrumental precipitation and streamflow records. In this paper we review a wide range of possible sources of non-stationari...
Abstract This study investigates the ability of a regional climate model (RCM) to simulate the di... more Abstract This study investigates the ability of a regional climate model (RCM) to simulate the diurnal cycle of precipitation over south-east Australia, to provide a basis for understanding the mechanisms which drive diurnal variability. When compared to 195 observation gauges, the RCM tends to simulate too many occurrences and too little intensity for precipitation events at the 3 hourly time scale. However, the overall precipitation amounts are well simulated and the diurnal variability in occurrences and intensities are generally well ...
Abstract: Present-day flood estimation practise is underpinned by the assumption that flood risk ... more Abstract: Present-day flood estimation practise is underpinned by the assumption that flood risk in a future climate will reflect historical flood risk as represented by the instrumental record. This assumption, which is commonly referred to as the assumption of stationarity, recently has been questioned as a result of both an increased appreciation of the natural variability in our hydroclimate at temporal scales beyond that of the instrumental record, as well as the projected intensification of the hydrologic cycle due to anthropogenic climate change. These developments have led some authors to suggest that the stationarity assumption should henceforth be considered invalid, thereby calling into question all the methods that are underpinned by it, including flood frequency analysis using observed streamflow records, and rainfall-runoff modelling informed by instrumental precipitation and streamflow records. In this paper we review a wide range of possible sources of non-stationari...
Abstract This study investigates the ability of a regional climate model (RCM) to simulate the di... more Abstract This study investigates the ability of a regional climate model (RCM) to simulate the diurnal cycle of precipitation over south-east Australia, to provide a basis for understanding the mechanisms which drive diurnal variability. When compared to 195 observation gauges, the RCM tends to simulate too many occurrences and too little intensity for precipitation events at the 3 hourly time scale. However, the overall precipitation amounts are well simulated and the diurnal variability in occurrences and intensities are generally well ...
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Papers by Seth Westra