I am a lecturer with the Department of Economics, Adamawa State University, Mubi Phone: +2348060676083 Address: Department of Economics Adamawa State University, Mubi
Sindh Economics & Business Review International, May 29, 2020
In economic discourse, there are arguments on the effects of monetary policy shocks on output and... more In economic discourse, there are arguments on the effects of monetary policy shocks on output and price level. To some the effect is asymmetric while to others it is symmetric. Thus, this study added to the existing debate by investigating the asymmetric impact of monetary policy shocks on output and price level in Nigeria using annual data spanning from 1981 to 2018. The study employed the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model and the Wald test. The hypotheses tested in this study were done at 5 and 10 percent levels of significance. The results obtained suggested strong evidence of monetary policy asymmetry in Nigeria with negative (expansionary) shock having more impact than positive (contractionary) shock in the long run. Based on these findings, the study recommended that a proper monetary policy mix is required to simultaneously achieve economic growth and price stability.
The 2030 United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 13 agenda hinges on attaining a sustai... more The 2030 United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 13 agenda hinges on attaining a sustainable environment with the need to “take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts”. Hence, this study empirically revisits the debate on the effect of nonrenewable energy and globalization on carbon emissions within the framework of the Kuznets hypothesis using an unbalanced panel data from seven South Asian countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka) covering 1980–2019. The variables of interest are carbon emissions measured in metric tons per capita, energy use measured as kg of oil equivalent per capita, and globalization index. To address five main objectives, we deploy four techniques: panel-corrected standard errors (PCSE), feasible generalized least squares (FGLS), quantile regression (QR), and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS). For the most part, the findings reveal that the (1) inverted U-shaped energy-Kuznets curve h...
This study investigated the impact of electricity supply on manufacturing output in Nigeria using... more This study investigated the impact of electricity supply on manufacturing output in Nigeria using data from 1980 to 2019. By augmenting the endogenous growth model production function with key variables affecting manufacturing sector output, such as exchange rate and technology, which previous studies failed to capture. The result of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model revealed that electricity supply has a negative and insignificant relationship with the manufacturing sector output. Conversely, technology has a positive and significant relationship with manufacturing sector output in the short run. Thus, it was recommended that an adequate and stable supply of electricity and deploying modern technology should be on the front burner of the country's development policy. This steady supply will not only enhance the growth of the manufacturing sector but also lead to inclusive growth in terms of reducing poverty and unemployment in the Nigerian economy and promoting ra...
Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development
One of the challenges facing agricultural sector development in Nigeria is inadequate financing b... more One of the challenges facing agricultural sector development in Nigeria is inadequate financing by the government and financial institutions. This poor agricultural funding has an impact on economic activities. Thus, this study investigated the connection between agricultural funding and economic performance in Cross Rivers State's Obudu Local Government Area (LGA). The survey study methodology was employed, and a questionnaire was used as its primary data source, combined with a stratified sample technique. The targeted population was restricted to farmers and agriculturalists in the study area. Descriptive statistics, such as frequency and percentages tables, were calculated, and the data gathered from the questionnaire were compiled, computed, and analysed. The results of hypothesis testing showed a relationship between agricultural finance and economic performance, as well as a connection between agricultural credit schemes and agricultural sector expansion, using analysis o...
In the past two decades, the effort toward reducing poverty and its dimensions has increased in m... more In the past two decades, the effort toward reducing poverty and its dimensions has increased in middle and low-income countries by introducing diverse social protection programmes. In Nigeria, for instance, various successive regimes have experimented with myriads of programmes targeted at poverty alleviation. Yet, in 2018, Nigeria was named the world's poverty capital, with about 87 million citizens living in extreme poverty. This data could be because economists, the World Bank, and other development organizations have stereotyped the concept of poverty as income, consumption, and wealth without paying attention to the "poverty mentality". As a result, governments often instinctively neglect the influence of the "poverty mentality" on the part of beneficiaries of poverty alleviation programmes when initiating social protection policy framework for the country. However, from the literature reviewed, a "poverty mentality" often leads to poor financi...
This study investigates the effect of external debts and debt burden (proxied by the ratio of tot... more This study investigates the effect of external debts and debt burden (proxied by the ratio of total debt service payment to export earnings) on economic growth within the framework of vector error correction model (VECM). The study employed annual time series data sourced from the World Bank database (1977-2019) due to the unavailability of the proxy for debt burden on higher frequencies. The study found evidence of debt overhang in Nigeria due to the negativesignificant relationship between external debts and economic growth. The result further revealed that a 1 per cent increase in debt burden, all things being equal, decreased economic growth by 2.2 per cent in the long run. Based on these findings, it was recommended that the Nigerian government should expand her earnings through conscious diversification of the country's economy to boost exports and curbing unnecessary imports that consumes the country's foreign exchange reserves.
The corruption in Nigeria is generating concern around the globe and among its citizens. This con... more The corruption in Nigeria is generating concern around the globe and among its citizens. This concern is because corruption has continued undermining the country's socio-economic development. Thus, this study empirically investigates the impact of corruption on economic growth in the Nigerian economy using annual data from 1980 to 2018. The study employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model as its estimation technique. In this study, economic growth was proxied by gross domestic product growth rate (GDPGR), while corruption was proxied by the corruption perception index. The result revealed that corruption has a negative and significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria in the long run. This finding implies that corruption has impeded the economic development process in Nigeria within the period of this study. Thus, it was recommended that anti-corruption agencies in Nigeria, such as the Economic and Financial Crime Commission (EFCC) should be strengthened by enac...
Nigeria is one of the countries with high personal remittances inflows in the world. However, the... more Nigeria is one of the countries with high personal remittances inflows in the world. However, these inflows have serious implications for the effectiveness or otherwise of the CBN’s objective of price stability. This is because they are not properly tracked and captured when designing monetary policy targets. Thus, this study was conceived to investigate the impact of personal remittances on monetary policy variables within a linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Three equations were developed and secondary data from 1980 to 2016 was assembled for this study. The hypotheses stated in this study were tested at 10% and 5% levels of significance. The result obtained revealed that personal remittances and consumer price index have a positive and significant impact on broad money supply in the long and short runs within the period of study. It was therefore recommended that the CBN should keep track of all remittances inflow into the country by enacting laws that will encou...
Crude oil price plays an important role in influencing the economies of crude oil exporting count... more Crude oil price plays an important role in influencing the economies of crude oil exporting countries like Nigeria. This impact can either be negative or positive depending on whether the price of crude oil in the international market increases or decreases. Nigeria moved from managed float exchange rate regime in 1986 shortly after the adoption of Structural Adjustment Programme (in 1986) to a free float exchange rate regime. However, time series data have shown that oil price and exchange rate are correlated because a sudden change in the price of crude oil in the international market is always accompanied by a period of fluctuations in the exchange rate value of the currencies of oil exporting countries, especially when the economy is oil-export dependent. This study therefore is aimed at examining impact of oil price volatility on exchange rate in Nigeria. In doing this, annual time series data from 1986 to 2015 were utilized. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds tes...
This study examined the impact of monetary policy on financial stability in the Nigerian banking ... more This study examined the impact of monetary policy on financial stability in the Nigerian banking industry for the period 2008Q1 to 2016Q2, using an error correction model. Banking industry financial stability index (BIFSI) was computed within the study and was used as a measure of financial stability in the Nigerian banking industry. The study discovered that the impact of monetary policy on financial stability in the Nigerian banking industry was weak. It also revealed a significant long run equilibrium relationship between monetary policy and financial stability in the Nigerian banking industry with a speed of adjustment to long run equilibrium of 66.54%. It was concluded that open market operation and exchange rate channels are more effective channels of transmitting monetary policy to financial stability in the banking industry, than interest rate channel.
In economic discourse, there are arguments on the effects of monetary policy shocks on output and... more In economic discourse, there are arguments on the effects of monetary policy shocks on output and price level. To some the effect is asymmetric while to others it is symmetric. Thus, this study added to the existing debate by investigating the asymmetric impact of monetary policy shocks on output and price level in Nigeria using annual data spanning from 1981 to 2018. The study employed the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model and the Wald test. The hypotheses tested in this study were done at 5 and 10 percent levels of significance. The results obtained suggested strong evidence of monetary policy asymmetry in Nigeria with negative (expansionary) shock having more impact than positive (contractionary) shock in the long run. Based on these findings, the study recommended that a proper monetary policy mix is required to simultaneously achieve economic growth and price stability.
International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), 2019
Nigeria is one of the countries with high personal remittances inflows in the world. However, the... more Nigeria is one of the countries with high personal remittances inflows in the world. However, these inflows have serious implications for the effectiveness or otherwise of the CBN's objective of price stability. This is because they are not properly tracked and captured when designing monetary policy targets. Thus, this study was conceived to investigate the impact of personal remittances on monetary policy variables within a linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Three equations were developed and secondary data from 1980 to 2016 was assembled for this study. The hypotheses stated in this study were tested at 10% and 5% levels of significance. The result obtained revealed that personal remittances and consumer price index have a positive and significant impact on broad money supply in the long and short runs within the period of study. It was therefore recommended that the CBN should keep track of all remittances inflow into the country by enacting laws that will encourage the transfer of remittances through financial institutions and prohibits transfer through other means.
Global Advanced Research Journal of Economics, Accounting and Finance, 2016
This paper gives an overview of the Nigerian power sector and particularly focused on the impact ... more This paper gives an overview of the Nigerian power sector and particularly focused on the impact of the power sector reform on small scale businesses in Cross River State. The data generated through the use of structured questionnaire was subjected to descriptive analysis using simple percentages. Thus, it was found that the major challenge confronting small scale businesses in Cross River State is inadequate supply of electricity affecting their business operation and profit. It was also discovered that electricity supply has been relatively good compared to what it was before the reform. However, more improvement is required as most of these small scale businesses still depend on generators to augment their electricity requirement. Conclusively, it was recommended that Cross River State government should take the issue of electricity very serious by constructing more dams and thermal stations to boost the existing supply and above all establish a monitoring team to check the excesses of this distribution company to avoid unnecessary exploitation of the consumers, while recommending education of power users to avoid wastage that may also eat deep into their profits.
International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology, 2019
The main concern of this study is to examine the relationship between per capita national income ... more The main concern of this study is to examine the relationship between per capita national income (economic growth) and income inequality in Nigeria from 1981 to 2017. The study employed descriptive and inferential design to investigate the relationship among the variables (Inequality proxied by GINI index, GDP per capita, GDP per capita squared and gross national savings) used in this study. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and VEC Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Tests were used for this study because all the variables were integrated of order I(1). The hypotheses used in this study were tested at 5% level of significance. The results revealed that there is a positive relationship between per capita income and income inequality. Similarly, the Kuznets U-shaped hypothesis was found to be true. It also showed that when economic growth (GDP per capita) is doubled, income inequality will fall by 87.36% in the long-run. The causality result revealed a unidirectional causality from income inequality to gross national savings. Based on these findings, it was recommended that the Nigerian government should urgently pursue economic programmes that can promote the establishment and survival of micro, small and medium enterprises.
International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), 2019
Crude oil price plays an important role in influencing the economies of crude oil exporting count... more Crude oil price plays an important role in influencing the economies of crude oil exporting countries like Nigeria. This impact can either be negative or positive depending on whether the price of crude oil in the international market increases or decreases. Nigeria moved from managed float exchange rate regime in 1986 shortly after the adoption of Structural Adjustment Programme (in 1986) to a free float exchange rate regime. However, time series data have shown that oil price and exchange rate are correlated because a sudden change in the price of crude oil in the international market is always accompanied by a period of fluctuations in the exchange rate value of the currencies of oil exporting countries, especially when the economy is oil-export dependent. This study therefore is aimed at examining impact of oil price volatility on exchange rate in Nigeria. In doing this, annual time series data from 1986 to 2015 were utilized. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds testing procedures was used for this study because the variables were integrated of order I(0) and I(1) and granger causality test were used to estimate the exchange rate and causality models respectively. The exchange rate model showed a good fit, 99 percent of the variations in the dependent variable were explained by the independent variables and hypotheses tested at 1, 5 and 10 percent levels of significance. The results indicated a negative but significant relationship between volatility of crude oil prices and exchange rates in Nigeria in the long-run. In the short-run, however, this relationship was negative and statistically not significant within the period of study. The results also showed money supply (M2), gross domestic product (GDP) and lending interest rate as important determinants of exchange rate in Nigeria in the short and long runs. The granger causality result indicated there is no causality between oil price volatility and exchange rate. The study recommended urgent shift in the Nigerian economy from crude oil export to none-oil exports through the exploration of other solid minerals and even agricultural produce. It also recommended swift effort to increasing Nigeria's foreign exchange reserve in the short run so that it can serve as a shock absorber against crude oil price volatility that negatively affect the Naira exchange rate in the long run.
Sindh Economics & Business Review International, May 29, 2020
In economic discourse, there are arguments on the effects of monetary policy shocks on output and... more In economic discourse, there are arguments on the effects of monetary policy shocks on output and price level. To some the effect is asymmetric while to others it is symmetric. Thus, this study added to the existing debate by investigating the asymmetric impact of monetary policy shocks on output and price level in Nigeria using annual data spanning from 1981 to 2018. The study employed the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model and the Wald test. The hypotheses tested in this study were done at 5 and 10 percent levels of significance. The results obtained suggested strong evidence of monetary policy asymmetry in Nigeria with negative (expansionary) shock having more impact than positive (contractionary) shock in the long run. Based on these findings, the study recommended that a proper monetary policy mix is required to simultaneously achieve economic growth and price stability.
The 2030 United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 13 agenda hinges on attaining a sustai... more The 2030 United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 13 agenda hinges on attaining a sustainable environment with the need to “take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts”. Hence, this study empirically revisits the debate on the effect of nonrenewable energy and globalization on carbon emissions within the framework of the Kuznets hypothesis using an unbalanced panel data from seven South Asian countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka) covering 1980–2019. The variables of interest are carbon emissions measured in metric tons per capita, energy use measured as kg of oil equivalent per capita, and globalization index. To address five main objectives, we deploy four techniques: panel-corrected standard errors (PCSE), feasible generalized least squares (FGLS), quantile regression (QR), and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS). For the most part, the findings reveal that the (1) inverted U-shaped energy-Kuznets curve h...
This study investigated the impact of electricity supply on manufacturing output in Nigeria using... more This study investigated the impact of electricity supply on manufacturing output in Nigeria using data from 1980 to 2019. By augmenting the endogenous growth model production function with key variables affecting manufacturing sector output, such as exchange rate and technology, which previous studies failed to capture. The result of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model revealed that electricity supply has a negative and insignificant relationship with the manufacturing sector output. Conversely, technology has a positive and significant relationship with manufacturing sector output in the short run. Thus, it was recommended that an adequate and stable supply of electricity and deploying modern technology should be on the front burner of the country's development policy. This steady supply will not only enhance the growth of the manufacturing sector but also lead to inclusive growth in terms of reducing poverty and unemployment in the Nigerian economy and promoting ra...
Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development
One of the challenges facing agricultural sector development in Nigeria is inadequate financing b... more One of the challenges facing agricultural sector development in Nigeria is inadequate financing by the government and financial institutions. This poor agricultural funding has an impact on economic activities. Thus, this study investigated the connection between agricultural funding and economic performance in Cross Rivers State's Obudu Local Government Area (LGA). The survey study methodology was employed, and a questionnaire was used as its primary data source, combined with a stratified sample technique. The targeted population was restricted to farmers and agriculturalists in the study area. Descriptive statistics, such as frequency and percentages tables, were calculated, and the data gathered from the questionnaire were compiled, computed, and analysed. The results of hypothesis testing showed a relationship between agricultural finance and economic performance, as well as a connection between agricultural credit schemes and agricultural sector expansion, using analysis o...
In the past two decades, the effort toward reducing poverty and its dimensions has increased in m... more In the past two decades, the effort toward reducing poverty and its dimensions has increased in middle and low-income countries by introducing diverse social protection programmes. In Nigeria, for instance, various successive regimes have experimented with myriads of programmes targeted at poverty alleviation. Yet, in 2018, Nigeria was named the world's poverty capital, with about 87 million citizens living in extreme poverty. This data could be because economists, the World Bank, and other development organizations have stereotyped the concept of poverty as income, consumption, and wealth without paying attention to the "poverty mentality". As a result, governments often instinctively neglect the influence of the "poverty mentality" on the part of beneficiaries of poverty alleviation programmes when initiating social protection policy framework for the country. However, from the literature reviewed, a "poverty mentality" often leads to poor financi...
This study investigates the effect of external debts and debt burden (proxied by the ratio of tot... more This study investigates the effect of external debts and debt burden (proxied by the ratio of total debt service payment to export earnings) on economic growth within the framework of vector error correction model (VECM). The study employed annual time series data sourced from the World Bank database (1977-2019) due to the unavailability of the proxy for debt burden on higher frequencies. The study found evidence of debt overhang in Nigeria due to the negativesignificant relationship between external debts and economic growth. The result further revealed that a 1 per cent increase in debt burden, all things being equal, decreased economic growth by 2.2 per cent in the long run. Based on these findings, it was recommended that the Nigerian government should expand her earnings through conscious diversification of the country's economy to boost exports and curbing unnecessary imports that consumes the country's foreign exchange reserves.
The corruption in Nigeria is generating concern around the globe and among its citizens. This con... more The corruption in Nigeria is generating concern around the globe and among its citizens. This concern is because corruption has continued undermining the country's socio-economic development. Thus, this study empirically investigates the impact of corruption on economic growth in the Nigerian economy using annual data from 1980 to 2018. The study employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model as its estimation technique. In this study, economic growth was proxied by gross domestic product growth rate (GDPGR), while corruption was proxied by the corruption perception index. The result revealed that corruption has a negative and significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria in the long run. This finding implies that corruption has impeded the economic development process in Nigeria within the period of this study. Thus, it was recommended that anti-corruption agencies in Nigeria, such as the Economic and Financial Crime Commission (EFCC) should be strengthened by enac...
Nigeria is one of the countries with high personal remittances inflows in the world. However, the... more Nigeria is one of the countries with high personal remittances inflows in the world. However, these inflows have serious implications for the effectiveness or otherwise of the CBN’s objective of price stability. This is because they are not properly tracked and captured when designing monetary policy targets. Thus, this study was conceived to investigate the impact of personal remittances on monetary policy variables within a linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Three equations were developed and secondary data from 1980 to 2016 was assembled for this study. The hypotheses stated in this study were tested at 10% and 5% levels of significance. The result obtained revealed that personal remittances and consumer price index have a positive and significant impact on broad money supply in the long and short runs within the period of study. It was therefore recommended that the CBN should keep track of all remittances inflow into the country by enacting laws that will encou...
Crude oil price plays an important role in influencing the economies of crude oil exporting count... more Crude oil price plays an important role in influencing the economies of crude oil exporting countries like Nigeria. This impact can either be negative or positive depending on whether the price of crude oil in the international market increases or decreases. Nigeria moved from managed float exchange rate regime in 1986 shortly after the adoption of Structural Adjustment Programme (in 1986) to a free float exchange rate regime. However, time series data have shown that oil price and exchange rate are correlated because a sudden change in the price of crude oil in the international market is always accompanied by a period of fluctuations in the exchange rate value of the currencies of oil exporting countries, especially when the economy is oil-export dependent. This study therefore is aimed at examining impact of oil price volatility on exchange rate in Nigeria. In doing this, annual time series data from 1986 to 2015 were utilized. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds tes...
This study examined the impact of monetary policy on financial stability in the Nigerian banking ... more This study examined the impact of monetary policy on financial stability in the Nigerian banking industry for the period 2008Q1 to 2016Q2, using an error correction model. Banking industry financial stability index (BIFSI) was computed within the study and was used as a measure of financial stability in the Nigerian banking industry. The study discovered that the impact of monetary policy on financial stability in the Nigerian banking industry was weak. It also revealed a significant long run equilibrium relationship between monetary policy and financial stability in the Nigerian banking industry with a speed of adjustment to long run equilibrium of 66.54%. It was concluded that open market operation and exchange rate channels are more effective channels of transmitting monetary policy to financial stability in the banking industry, than interest rate channel.
In economic discourse, there are arguments on the effects of monetary policy shocks on output and... more In economic discourse, there are arguments on the effects of monetary policy shocks on output and price level. To some the effect is asymmetric while to others it is symmetric. Thus, this study added to the existing debate by investigating the asymmetric impact of monetary policy shocks on output and price level in Nigeria using annual data spanning from 1981 to 2018. The study employed the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model and the Wald test. The hypotheses tested in this study were done at 5 and 10 percent levels of significance. The results obtained suggested strong evidence of monetary policy asymmetry in Nigeria with negative (expansionary) shock having more impact than positive (contractionary) shock in the long run. Based on these findings, the study recommended that a proper monetary policy mix is required to simultaneously achieve economic growth and price stability.
International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), 2019
Nigeria is one of the countries with high personal remittances inflows in the world. However, the... more Nigeria is one of the countries with high personal remittances inflows in the world. However, these inflows have serious implications for the effectiveness or otherwise of the CBN's objective of price stability. This is because they are not properly tracked and captured when designing monetary policy targets. Thus, this study was conceived to investigate the impact of personal remittances on monetary policy variables within a linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Three equations were developed and secondary data from 1980 to 2016 was assembled for this study. The hypotheses stated in this study were tested at 10% and 5% levels of significance. The result obtained revealed that personal remittances and consumer price index have a positive and significant impact on broad money supply in the long and short runs within the period of study. It was therefore recommended that the CBN should keep track of all remittances inflow into the country by enacting laws that will encourage the transfer of remittances through financial institutions and prohibits transfer through other means.
Global Advanced Research Journal of Economics, Accounting and Finance, 2016
This paper gives an overview of the Nigerian power sector and particularly focused on the impact ... more This paper gives an overview of the Nigerian power sector and particularly focused on the impact of the power sector reform on small scale businesses in Cross River State. The data generated through the use of structured questionnaire was subjected to descriptive analysis using simple percentages. Thus, it was found that the major challenge confronting small scale businesses in Cross River State is inadequate supply of electricity affecting their business operation and profit. It was also discovered that electricity supply has been relatively good compared to what it was before the reform. However, more improvement is required as most of these small scale businesses still depend on generators to augment their electricity requirement. Conclusively, it was recommended that Cross River State government should take the issue of electricity very serious by constructing more dams and thermal stations to boost the existing supply and above all establish a monitoring team to check the excesses of this distribution company to avoid unnecessary exploitation of the consumers, while recommending education of power users to avoid wastage that may also eat deep into their profits.
International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology, 2019
The main concern of this study is to examine the relationship between per capita national income ... more The main concern of this study is to examine the relationship between per capita national income (economic growth) and income inequality in Nigeria from 1981 to 2017. The study employed descriptive and inferential design to investigate the relationship among the variables (Inequality proxied by GINI index, GDP per capita, GDP per capita squared and gross national savings) used in this study. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and VEC Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Tests were used for this study because all the variables were integrated of order I(1). The hypotheses used in this study were tested at 5% level of significance. The results revealed that there is a positive relationship between per capita income and income inequality. Similarly, the Kuznets U-shaped hypothesis was found to be true. It also showed that when economic growth (GDP per capita) is doubled, income inequality will fall by 87.36% in the long-run. The causality result revealed a unidirectional causality from income inequality to gross national savings. Based on these findings, it was recommended that the Nigerian government should urgently pursue economic programmes that can promote the establishment and survival of micro, small and medium enterprises.
International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), 2019
Crude oil price plays an important role in influencing the economies of crude oil exporting count... more Crude oil price plays an important role in influencing the economies of crude oil exporting countries like Nigeria. This impact can either be negative or positive depending on whether the price of crude oil in the international market increases or decreases. Nigeria moved from managed float exchange rate regime in 1986 shortly after the adoption of Structural Adjustment Programme (in 1986) to a free float exchange rate regime. However, time series data have shown that oil price and exchange rate are correlated because a sudden change in the price of crude oil in the international market is always accompanied by a period of fluctuations in the exchange rate value of the currencies of oil exporting countries, especially when the economy is oil-export dependent. This study therefore is aimed at examining impact of oil price volatility on exchange rate in Nigeria. In doing this, annual time series data from 1986 to 2015 were utilized. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds testing procedures was used for this study because the variables were integrated of order I(0) and I(1) and granger causality test were used to estimate the exchange rate and causality models respectively. The exchange rate model showed a good fit, 99 percent of the variations in the dependent variable were explained by the independent variables and hypotheses tested at 1, 5 and 10 percent levels of significance. The results indicated a negative but significant relationship between volatility of crude oil prices and exchange rates in Nigeria in the long-run. In the short-run, however, this relationship was negative and statistically not significant within the period of study. The results also showed money supply (M2), gross domestic product (GDP) and lending interest rate as important determinants of exchange rate in Nigeria in the short and long runs. The granger causality result indicated there is no causality between oil price volatility and exchange rate. The study recommended urgent shift in the Nigerian economy from crude oil export to none-oil exports through the exploration of other solid minerals and even agricultural produce. It also recommended swift effort to increasing Nigeria's foreign exchange reserve in the short run so that it can serve as a shock absorber against crude oil price volatility that negatively affect the Naira exchange rate in the long run.
Uploads
Papers by James Tumba Henry