Acronyms - Acknowledgements - Introduction - PART 1: NUCLEAR DETERRENCE REVISITED - The Nuclear P... more Acronyms - Acknowledgements - Introduction - PART 1: NUCLEAR DETERRENCE REVISITED - The Nuclear Paradox - Conditions for Nuclear Deterrence - Nuclear Deterrence and Nuclear Proliferation - Nuclear Deterrence and the Risk of Accidents - Nuclear Deterrence: A Minimalist Approach - Conclusion - PART 2: NUCLEAR DETERRENCE AND NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION IN THE POST-COLD WAR PERIOD - Introduction - Nuclear Risks in the Post-Cold War Period - Answers to these 'New' Nuclear Risks - Conclusion - PART 3: NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL IN THE FUTURE: HEADING TOWARDS A NUCLEAR WEAPON FREE WORLD - Introduction - Is a Nuclear Weapon Free World (NWFW) Desirable? - Nuclear Addiction - Towards a NWFW - Epilogue - Conclusion - Appendices - Endnotes - Bibliography - Index
Even with the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), nuclear disarmament will be p... more Even with the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), nuclear disarmament will be protracted. The ambition is not just a world without nuclear weapons but non-nuclear peace: the war-prevention functions of nuclear deterrence must be taken over by other means; conflicts that motivate states to possess nuclear weapons must be resolved in order to terminate these motivations. The TPNW, while contributing to a nuclear taboo, is insufficient as institutional foundation for achieving and maintaining a peaceful world without nuclear weapons. New political institutions are needed for mitigating competition among major powers, verification, compliance and enforcement. Contrary to the prevailing discourse, cultural institutions which shape the thinking about nuclear weapons are more relevant than political, military and technical institutions for achieving the final goal.
The debate about nuclear weapons has been based on abstract notions. The war in Ukraine is a fasc... more The debate about nuclear weapons has been based on abstract notions. The war in Ukraine is a fascinating case-study for testing these decades-old abstract theories. The puzzle can be formulated as follows: what has been the impact of nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine and what does that tell us about the usefulness of nuclear weapons in general? That question is further split up in three questions: what does this war tells us respectively about nuclear deterrence theory, nuclear responsibility theory, and the theory of nuclear coercion? Each time, the theory will be explained, and matched with the facts on the ground. The answers to these questions will in all likelihood be important for the future of nuclear weapons. All in all, the analysis points out a bleak picture with respect to the usefulness of nuclear weapons. Apart from deterring an attack against the vital interests of a state, nuclear weapons do not seem to provide many benefits apart from many (potential) costs. And even with respect to deterring an attack against the vital interests of a state, it is unclear to what extent nuclear deterrence works.
When the Biden administration came to power, the hope was that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Ac... more When the Biden administration came to power, the hope was that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) (2015), the so-called Iran nuclear deal, would be restored. Due to domestic constraints and in the case of Iran also a valid alternative, both the US and the Rohani administration played hardball during the negotiations. As the Iranian nuclear program further advanced and the ties with Russia and China became stronger, the conservative Raisi administration was even less interested in reviving the nuclear deal. What remains are mini-deals that are more advantageous for Iran than for the US. Billions of dollars of Iran are (or will be) unfrozen by the US, while Iran's break-out time of its nuclear program has shrunk to zero days. Given that the overall goal of the international community (and especially the US) was to prevent Iran from building the bomb, one can only conclude that that policy has basically failed. Although Teheran has not built the bomb yet, it is now closer to the bomb than ever. Liberal theory and more in particular Putnam's two-level game help explain this outcome.
This article makes the argument that the role of the European NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organiz... more This article makes the argument that the role of the European NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) allies, and especially the so-called non-nuclear weapon states (NNWS) under the NPT, may and should play a key role in the future of nuclear disarmament. Once the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) is signed and ratified by more or less 100 NNWS , mostly from the Global South, it will be up to the allied NNWS to make up their mind about their role vis-à-vis nuclear disarmament. Will they continue to behave as protégés by (and in some way also protectors of) the nuclear-weapon states and break the disarmament process further, or will they shake off the nuclear “protection” in the interest of making progress towards a world without nuclear weapons? This article zooms in on the European NATO allies in particular. The TPNW can and will be used to put pressure on the European NATO allies to switch sides, and it can, on its turn, be used by the European NATO allies to stigmatize the nuclear-armed states in order to make progress in the direction of nuclear elimination.
Acronyms - Acknowledgements - Introduction - PART 1: NUCLEAR DETERRENCE REVISITED - The Nuclear P... more Acronyms - Acknowledgements - Introduction - PART 1: NUCLEAR DETERRENCE REVISITED - The Nuclear Paradox - Conditions for Nuclear Deterrence - Nuclear Deterrence and Nuclear Proliferation - Nuclear Deterrence and the Risk of Accidents - Nuclear Deterrence: A Minimalist Approach - Conclusion - PART 2: NUCLEAR DETERRENCE AND NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION IN THE POST-COLD WAR PERIOD - Introduction - Nuclear Risks in the Post-Cold War Period - Answers to these 'New' Nuclear Risks - Conclusion - PART 3: NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL IN THE FUTURE: HEADING TOWARDS A NUCLEAR WEAPON FREE WORLD - Introduction - Is a Nuclear Weapon Free World (NWFW) Desirable? - Nuclear Addiction - Towards a NWFW - Epilogue - Conclusion - Appendices - Endnotes - Bibliography - Index
Even with the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), nuclear disarmament will be p... more Even with the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), nuclear disarmament will be protracted. The ambition is not just a world without nuclear weapons but non-nuclear peace: the war-prevention functions of nuclear deterrence must be taken over by other means; conflicts that motivate states to possess nuclear weapons must be resolved in order to terminate these motivations. The TPNW, while contributing to a nuclear taboo, is insufficient as institutional foundation for achieving and maintaining a peaceful world without nuclear weapons. New political institutions are needed for mitigating competition among major powers, verification, compliance and enforcement. Contrary to the prevailing discourse, cultural institutions which shape the thinking about nuclear weapons are more relevant than political, military and technical institutions for achieving the final goal.
The debate about nuclear weapons has been based on abstract notions. The war in Ukraine is a fasc... more The debate about nuclear weapons has been based on abstract notions. The war in Ukraine is a fascinating case-study for testing these decades-old abstract theories. The puzzle can be formulated as follows: what has been the impact of nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine and what does that tell us about the usefulness of nuclear weapons in general? That question is further split up in three questions: what does this war tells us respectively about nuclear deterrence theory, nuclear responsibility theory, and the theory of nuclear coercion? Each time, the theory will be explained, and matched with the facts on the ground. The answers to these questions will in all likelihood be important for the future of nuclear weapons. All in all, the analysis points out a bleak picture with respect to the usefulness of nuclear weapons. Apart from deterring an attack against the vital interests of a state, nuclear weapons do not seem to provide many benefits apart from many (potential) costs. And even with respect to deterring an attack against the vital interests of a state, it is unclear to what extent nuclear deterrence works.
When the Biden administration came to power, the hope was that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Ac... more When the Biden administration came to power, the hope was that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) (2015), the so-called Iran nuclear deal, would be restored. Due to domestic constraints and in the case of Iran also a valid alternative, both the US and the Rohani administration played hardball during the negotiations. As the Iranian nuclear program further advanced and the ties with Russia and China became stronger, the conservative Raisi administration was even less interested in reviving the nuclear deal. What remains are mini-deals that are more advantageous for Iran than for the US. Billions of dollars of Iran are (or will be) unfrozen by the US, while Iran's break-out time of its nuclear program has shrunk to zero days. Given that the overall goal of the international community (and especially the US) was to prevent Iran from building the bomb, one can only conclude that that policy has basically failed. Although Teheran has not built the bomb yet, it is now closer to the bomb than ever. Liberal theory and more in particular Putnam's two-level game help explain this outcome.
This article makes the argument that the role of the European NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organiz... more This article makes the argument that the role of the European NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) allies, and especially the so-called non-nuclear weapon states (NNWS) under the NPT, may and should play a key role in the future of nuclear disarmament. Once the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) is signed and ratified by more or less 100 NNWS , mostly from the Global South, it will be up to the allied NNWS to make up their mind about their role vis-à-vis nuclear disarmament. Will they continue to behave as protégés by (and in some way also protectors of) the nuclear-weapon states and break the disarmament process further, or will they shake off the nuclear “protection” in the interest of making progress towards a world without nuclear weapons? This article zooms in on the European NATO allies in particular. The TPNW can and will be used to put pressure on the European NATO allies to switch sides, and it can, on its turn, be used by the European NATO allies to stigmatize the nuclear-armed states in order to make progress in the direction of nuclear elimination.
TEDx talk on the conflictual relationship between Russia and the West. My proposition is that it ... more TEDx talk on the conflictual relationship between Russia and the West. My proposition is that it is not only Putin's fault. The West failed to integrate Russia into the Euro-Atlantic security architecture (on an equal level) after the Cold War. The result is, as one could have predicted, a new balance of power relationship, including spheres of influence and buffer states.
The volume examines the possibility of a world without nuclear weapons. It starts from the observ... more The volume examines the possibility of a world without nuclear weapons. It starts from the observation that, although nuclear deterrence has long been dominant in debates about war and peace, recent events show that ridicule and stigmatization of nuclear weapons and their possessors is on the rise. The idea of non-nuclear peace has been around since the beginning of the nuclear revolution, but it may be staging a return.
Security and Defence in Europe (book edited by J.Martin Ramirez and Jerzy Biziewsky, Springer), 2019
In this article, I predict troubles for the Atlantic Alliance: not only because of Trump, but bec... more In this article, I predict troubles for the Atlantic Alliance: not only because of Trump, but because of the changing balance of power. The US will have less time and money available for alliances in the future.
Radicalisation. A marginal phenomenon or a mirror to society ?, 2019
When thinking about radicalization today, other concepts immediately pop into mind: Islam, violen... more When thinking about radicalization today, other concepts immediately pop into mind: Islam, violence, indoctrination, terrorism, etc. The concept of radicalization has been media hyped and is widely imbedded in public discourse today. However, the way we comprehend and approach radicalization is not an objective notion of the concept but rather a subjective understanding that has gradually been attributed to it. Over the past decade and a half, some dominant narratives and understandings on radicalization have been constructed and spread in policy circles as well as in the public sphere. In this paper, we aim to critically reflect on the body of ideas and explanations on radicalization that are generally accepted. Reflecting on these dominant narratives is crucial, since policy responses to radicalization – one of the main security priorities in a great deal of Western countries today – are based on how we understand the concept.
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