Management of regulated water systems has become increasingly complex due to rapid socio-economic... more Management of regulated water systems has become increasingly complex due to rapid socio-economic growth and environmental changes in river basins over recent d.
... including the ability of GCM to represent atmospheric-oceanic climate drivers such as the Sou... more ... including the ability of GCM to represent atmospheric-oceanic climate drivers such as the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the El Nino ... from the SILO gridded database (Jeffrey et al., 2001) using Morton's areal evapotranspiration algorithm (Morton, 1983; Chiew and McMahon ...
The South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI) (http://www.seaci.org) is a research prog... more The South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI) (http://www.seaci.org) is a research program investigating the causes and impacts of climate change and climate variability across south eastern Australia (1.4 million km2). As part of this project, this study quantifies the relative uncertainty in modelled change in runoff sourced from Global Climate Models (GCMs) and rainfall-runoff models in the context of this
ABSTRACT Water resource management and planning increasingly need to incorporate the effects of g... more ABSTRACT Water resource management and planning increasingly need to incorporate the effects of global climate change on regional climate variability in order to accurately assess future water supplies. Therefore future climate projections, particularly of rainfall, are of utmost interest to water resource management and water-users. General circulation models (GCMs) are the primary tool used to simulate present climate and project future climate. The outputs of GCMs are useful in understanding how future global climate responds to prescribed greenhouse gases emission scenarios. However GCMs do not provide realistic daily rainfall at scales below about 200 km, at which hydrological processes are typically assessed. Statistical downscaling techniques have been developed to resolve the scale discrepancy between GCM climate change scenarios and the resolution required for hydrological impact assessment, based on the assumption that large-scale atmospheric conditions have a strong influence on local-scale weather. Gridded rainfall is important for a variety of scientific and engineering applications, including climate change detection, the evaluation of climate models, the parameterization of stochastic weather generators, as well as assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrological regimes and water availability, whereas statistical downscaling has predominantly provided daily rainfall series at the site (point) scale. The first part of the study explores the application of statistical downscaling to gridded rainfall datasets using three methods: 1) statistically downscaling to sites and then post-processing to interpolate to gridded rainfall; 2) treating each grid cell as an "observed" site for statistical downscaling directly; and 3) treating each sub-catchment as an "observed" site and statistically downscaling to sub-catchment averaged rainfall. The statistical downscaling Nonhomogeneous Hidden Markov Model (NHMM), which models multi-site patterns of daily rainfall as a finite number of 'hidden' (i.e. unobserved) weather states, is used for a study region comprising several catchments of the southern Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) in south-eastern Australia, which until this year has been experiencing a decade long drought. The second part of the study investigates the impacts of different gridded rainfall on the hydrological response analysis by inputting them in to the calibrated hydrological model. These research results can be used as reference for application of statistical downscaling method to generate gridded daily rainfall to quantify the hydrological responses to climatic change for long-term water management strategies.
Management of regulated water systems has become increasingly complex due to rapid socio-economic... more Management of regulated water systems has become increasingly complex due to rapid socio-economic growth and environmental changes in river basins over recent d.
... including the ability of GCM to represent atmospheric-oceanic climate drivers such as the Sou... more ... including the ability of GCM to represent atmospheric-oceanic climate drivers such as the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the El Nino ... from the SILO gridded database (Jeffrey et al., 2001) using Morton's areal evapotranspiration algorithm (Morton, 1983; Chiew and McMahon ...
The South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI) (http://www.seaci.org) is a research prog... more The South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI) (http://www.seaci.org) is a research program investigating the causes and impacts of climate change and climate variability across south eastern Australia (1.4 million km2). As part of this project, this study quantifies the relative uncertainty in modelled change in runoff sourced from Global Climate Models (GCMs) and rainfall-runoff models in the context of this
ABSTRACT Water resource management and planning increasingly need to incorporate the effects of g... more ABSTRACT Water resource management and planning increasingly need to incorporate the effects of global climate change on regional climate variability in order to accurately assess future water supplies. Therefore future climate projections, particularly of rainfall, are of utmost interest to water resource management and water-users. General circulation models (GCMs) are the primary tool used to simulate present climate and project future climate. The outputs of GCMs are useful in understanding how future global climate responds to prescribed greenhouse gases emission scenarios. However GCMs do not provide realistic daily rainfall at scales below about 200 km, at which hydrological processes are typically assessed. Statistical downscaling techniques have been developed to resolve the scale discrepancy between GCM climate change scenarios and the resolution required for hydrological impact assessment, based on the assumption that large-scale atmospheric conditions have a strong influence on local-scale weather. Gridded rainfall is important for a variety of scientific and engineering applications, including climate change detection, the evaluation of climate models, the parameterization of stochastic weather generators, as well as assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrological regimes and water availability, whereas statistical downscaling has predominantly provided daily rainfall series at the site (point) scale. The first part of the study explores the application of statistical downscaling to gridded rainfall datasets using three methods: 1) statistically downscaling to sites and then post-processing to interpolate to gridded rainfall; 2) treating each grid cell as an "observed" site for statistical downscaling directly; and 3) treating each sub-catchment as an "observed" site and statistically downscaling to sub-catchment averaged rainfall. The statistical downscaling Nonhomogeneous Hidden Markov Model (NHMM), which models multi-site patterns of daily rainfall as a finite number of 'hidden' (i.e. unobserved) weather states, is used for a study region comprising several catchments of the southern Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) in south-eastern Australia, which until this year has been experiencing a decade long drought. The second part of the study investigates the impacts of different gridded rainfall on the hydrological response analysis by inputting them in to the calibrated hydrological model. These research results can be used as reference for application of statistical downscaling method to generate gridded daily rainfall to quantify the hydrological responses to climatic change for long-term water management strategies.
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