Paul Chakalian has expertise in social vulnerability to environmental hazards, including environmental health and justice and risk communication, and skills in qualitative and quantitative research and analysis, as well as extensive experience with survey design, implementation, and management. Paul holds a PhD from Arizona State University in Environmental Social Science, an MA from Columbia University in Climate and Society, and a BA in Liberal Arts with a concentration in sociology and philosophy from The Evergreen State College.
In September 2017, Hurricane Irma turned off power for 6.7 million people in the state of Florida... more In September 2017, Hurricane Irma turned off power for 6.7 million people in the state of Florida. Despite increasing threats to the US electrical grid, there are few studies on household impacts from prolonged power failure. The authors conducted interviews with 42 residents of Highlands and Orange Counties, Florida, following the hurricane. Interviews reflect a range of socioeconomic statuses, genders, ages, and neighborhood characteristics. Classic patterns of resilience emerged in quantitative and qualitative analysis. Households with White respondents, higher incomes, and fewer elderly, very young, or non-English speaking residents demonstrated increased resilience to the storm and subsequent blackout. Respondents who identified as White were two and a half times as likely to report using a generator than residents identifying with any other racialized groups. Households with children younger than 6 living in the home were five times as likely to report difficulty accessing food and water than those without young children. This study provides groundwork for further analysis of blackout hazards and can be used to increase household and community resilience to future blackout events.
Environmental hazards and disaster researchers have demonstrated strong associations between soci... more Environmental hazards and disaster researchers have demonstrated strong associations between sociodemographic indicators, such as age and socio-economic status (SES), and hazard exposures and health outcomes for individuals and in certain communities. At the same time, behavioral health and risk communications research has examined how individual psychology influences adaptive strategies and behaviors in the face of hazards. However, at present, we do not understand the explanatory mechanisms that explain relationships between larger scale social structure, individual psychology, and specific behaviors that may attenuate or amplify risk. Extreme heat presents growing risks in a rapidly warming and urbanizing world. This dissertation examines the social and behavioral mechanisms that may explain inequitable health outcomes from exposure to concurrent extreme heat and electrical power failure in Phoenix, AZ and extreme heat in Detroit, MI. Exploratory analysis of 163 surveys in Phoenix, AZ showed that age, gender, and respondent’s racialized group identity did not relate to thermal discomfort and self-reported heat illness, which were only predicted by SES (StdB = -0.52, p < 0.01). Of the explanatory mechanisms tested in the study, only relative air conditioning intensity and thermal discomfort explained self-reported heat illness. Thermal discomfort was tested as both a mechanism and outcome measure. Content analysis of 40 semi-structured interviews in Phoenix, AZ revealed that social vulnerability was associated with an increase in perceived hazard severity (StdB = 0.44, p < 0.01), a decrease in perceived adaptation efficacy (StdB = -0.38, p = 0.02), and an indirect increase (through adaptive efficacy) in maladaptive intentions (StdB = 0.18, p = 0.01). Structural equation modeling of 244 surveys in Phoenix, AZ and Detroit, MI revealed that relationships between previous heat illness experience, perceived heat risk, and adaptive intentions were significantly moderated by adaptive capacity: high adaptive capacity households were more likely to undertake adaptive behaviors, and those decisions were more heavily influenced by risk perceptions and previous experiences. However, high adaptive capacity households had lower risk perceptions and fewer heat illness experiences than low adaptive capacity households. A better understanding of the mechanisms that produce social vulnerability can facilitate more salient risk messaging and more targeted public health interventions. For example, public health risk messaging that provides information on the efficacy of specific adaptations may be more likely to motivate self-protective action, and ultimately protect populations.
The risk of U.S. electrical grid failure is growing. Despite this increased risk there is very li... more The risk of U.S. electrical grid failure is growing. Despite this increased risk there is very little understanding of household vulnerability to power failure as a hazard. Over three weeks in fall 2017 we conducted 42 door-to-door interviews with residents of Highlands and Orange Counties, Florida, on their experiences with power failures caused by Hurricane Irma. Our sample of households represented a range of socioeconomic statuses, genders, ages, mobilities, neighborhood characteristics, and places of birth. Classical patterns of hazard vulnerability emerged in Irma-related power failures. Residents relied on material, social, and intellectual resources to protect themselves and recover from the negative effects of the hurricane. Residents with fewer of these resources were less equipped to handle the negative effects of the storm and blackout, and consequently suffered worse. Early results also show that respondents who reported higher levels of stress after the storm and lower levels of agency and pathways thinking were of lower socioeconomic status. Qualitatively these households were more likely to suffer more from the storm and struggle more in recovery. Understanding the patterns and specific mechanisms that lead to differential outcomes in complex hazardscapes that include power failure may help planners and emergency managers address gaps in preparedness efforts that often leave those in most need at highest risk.
"There exists a debate on the merit of methodological holism vs. individualism in the social scie... more "There exists a debate on the merit of methodological holism vs. individualism in the social sciences. This distinction is especially clear in the study of risk perception."
"When discussing climate change in America one cannot escape the issue of public skepticism. Ther... more "When discussing climate change in America one cannot escape the issue of public skepticism. There are several theories that attempt to explain the prevalence of doubt in the American public on an issue of which there is little doubt in the American scientific community. I will review these “models” below using information gleaned from five different climate change studies."
This piece provides an overview and analysis of the impact of the ASARCO smelter and refinery in ... more This piece provides an overview and analysis of the impact of the ASARCO smelter and refinery in Ruston, WA on the people who lived there from its opening at the turn of the 20th century to its closure in 1985. Particular attention was given to the latent effects the plant had on the town as it transition from a industrial town to a post-indiutrial city trying to find a new identity.
In September 2017, Hurricane Irma turned off power for 6.7 million people in the state of Florida... more In September 2017, Hurricane Irma turned off power for 6.7 million people in the state of Florida. Despite increasing threats to the 6 US electrical grid, there are few studies on household impacts from prolonged power failure. The authors conducted interviews with 7 42 residents of Highlands and Orange Counties, Florida, following the hurricane. Interviews reflect a range of socioeconomic statuses, 8 genders, ages, and neighborhood characteristics. Classic patterns of resilience emerged in quantitative and qualitative analysis. Households 9 with White respondents, higher incomes, and fewer elderly, very young, or non-English speaking residents demonstrated increased resilience 10 to the storm and subsequent blackout. Respondents who identified as White were two and a half times as likely to report using a generator 11 than residents identifying with any other racialized groups. Households with children younger than 6 living in the home were five times as 12 likely to report difficulty accessing food and water than those without young children. This study provides groundwork for further analysis of 13 blackout hazards and can be used to increase household and community resilience to future blackout events.
In September 2017, Hurricane Irma turned off power for 6.7 million people in the state of Florida... more In September 2017, Hurricane Irma turned off power for 6.7 million people in the state of Florida. Despite increasing threats to the US electrical grid, there are few studies on household impacts from prolonged power failure. The authors conducted interviews with 42 residents of Highlands and Orange Counties, Florida, following the hurricane. Interviews reflect a range of socioeconomic statuses, genders, ages, and neighborhood characteristics. Classic patterns of resilience emerged in quantitative and qualitative analysis. Households with White respondents, higher incomes, and fewer elderly, very young, or non-English speaking residents demonstrated increased resilience to the storm and subsequent blackout. Respondents who identified as White were two and a half times as likely to report using a generator than residents identifying with any other racialized groups. Households with children younger than 6 living in the home were five times as likely to report difficulty accessing food and water than those without young children. This study provides groundwork for further analysis of blackout hazards and can be used to increase household and community resilience to future blackout events.
Environmental hazards and disaster researchers have demonstrated strong associations between soci... more Environmental hazards and disaster researchers have demonstrated strong associations between sociodemographic indicators, such as age and socio-economic status (SES), and hazard exposures and health outcomes for individuals and in certain communities. At the same time, behavioral health and risk communications research has examined how individual psychology influences adaptive strategies and behaviors in the face of hazards. However, at present, we do not understand the explanatory mechanisms that explain relationships between larger scale social structure, individual psychology, and specific behaviors that may attenuate or amplify risk. Extreme heat presents growing risks in a rapidly warming and urbanizing world. This dissertation examines the social and behavioral mechanisms that may explain inequitable health outcomes from exposure to concurrent extreme heat and electrical power failure in Phoenix, AZ and extreme heat in Detroit, MI. Exploratory analysis of 163 surveys in Phoenix, AZ showed that age, gender, and respondent’s racialized group identity did not relate to thermal discomfort and self-reported heat illness, which were only predicted by SES (StdB = -0.52, p < 0.01). Of the explanatory mechanisms tested in the study, only relative air conditioning intensity and thermal discomfort explained self-reported heat illness. Thermal discomfort was tested as both a mechanism and outcome measure. Content analysis of 40 semi-structured interviews in Phoenix, AZ revealed that social vulnerability was associated with an increase in perceived hazard severity (StdB = 0.44, p < 0.01), a decrease in perceived adaptation efficacy (StdB = -0.38, p = 0.02), and an indirect increase (through adaptive efficacy) in maladaptive intentions (StdB = 0.18, p = 0.01). Structural equation modeling of 244 surveys in Phoenix, AZ and Detroit, MI revealed that relationships between previous heat illness experience, perceived heat risk, and adaptive intentions were significantly moderated by adaptive capacity: high adaptive capacity households were more likely to undertake adaptive behaviors, and those decisions were more heavily influenced by risk perceptions and previous experiences. However, high adaptive capacity households had lower risk perceptions and fewer heat illness experiences than low adaptive capacity households. A better understanding of the mechanisms that produce social vulnerability can facilitate more salient risk messaging and more targeted public health interventions. For example, public health risk messaging that provides information on the efficacy of specific adaptations may be more likely to motivate self-protective action, and ultimately protect populations.
The risk of U.S. electrical grid failure is growing. Despite this increased risk there is very li... more The risk of U.S. electrical grid failure is growing. Despite this increased risk there is very little understanding of household vulnerability to power failure as a hazard. Over three weeks in fall 2017 we conducted 42 door-to-door interviews with residents of Highlands and Orange Counties, Florida, on their experiences with power failures caused by Hurricane Irma. Our sample of households represented a range of socioeconomic statuses, genders, ages, mobilities, neighborhood characteristics, and places of birth. Classical patterns of hazard vulnerability emerged in Irma-related power failures. Residents relied on material, social, and intellectual resources to protect themselves and recover from the negative effects of the hurricane. Residents with fewer of these resources were less equipped to handle the negative effects of the storm and blackout, and consequently suffered worse. Early results also show that respondents who reported higher levels of stress after the storm and lower levels of agency and pathways thinking were of lower socioeconomic status. Qualitatively these households were more likely to suffer more from the storm and struggle more in recovery. Understanding the patterns and specific mechanisms that lead to differential outcomes in complex hazardscapes that include power failure may help planners and emergency managers address gaps in preparedness efforts that often leave those in most need at highest risk.
"There exists a debate on the merit of methodological holism vs. individualism in the social scie... more "There exists a debate on the merit of methodological holism vs. individualism in the social sciences. This distinction is especially clear in the study of risk perception."
"When discussing climate change in America one cannot escape the issue of public skepticism. Ther... more "When discussing climate change in America one cannot escape the issue of public skepticism. There are several theories that attempt to explain the prevalence of doubt in the American public on an issue of which there is little doubt in the American scientific community. I will review these “models” below using information gleaned from five different climate change studies."
This piece provides an overview and analysis of the impact of the ASARCO smelter and refinery in ... more This piece provides an overview and analysis of the impact of the ASARCO smelter and refinery in Ruston, WA on the people who lived there from its opening at the turn of the 20th century to its closure in 1985. Particular attention was given to the latent effects the plant had on the town as it transition from a industrial town to a post-indiutrial city trying to find a new identity.
In September 2017, Hurricane Irma turned off power for 6.7 million people in the state of Florida... more In September 2017, Hurricane Irma turned off power for 6.7 million people in the state of Florida. Despite increasing threats to the 6 US electrical grid, there are few studies on household impacts from prolonged power failure. The authors conducted interviews with 7 42 residents of Highlands and Orange Counties, Florida, following the hurricane. Interviews reflect a range of socioeconomic statuses, 8 genders, ages, and neighborhood characteristics. Classic patterns of resilience emerged in quantitative and qualitative analysis. Households 9 with White respondents, higher incomes, and fewer elderly, very young, or non-English speaking residents demonstrated increased resilience 10 to the storm and subsequent blackout. Respondents who identified as White were two and a half times as likely to report using a generator 11 than residents identifying with any other racialized groups. Households with children younger than 6 living in the home were five times as 12 likely to report difficulty accessing food and water than those without young children. This study provides groundwork for further analysis of 13 blackout hazards and can be used to increase household and community resilience to future blackout events.
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