Risk Perception

Two experiments employed surveys to address seat belt experience and use as well as perceptions of risk associated with various seat belt configurations. In Experiment 1, a questionnaire was administered to two samples: 104 srudents at the University of Houston and 162 volunteers at a shopping mall in Raleigh, North Carolina. Of primary interest was the use of manual lap belts in motorized shoulder belt systems and reasons for their use or non use. Results showed that compared to manual three point belts, usage rates for manual lap belts in the motorized system were lower.  Forgetting and traveling a short distance were frequently cited as reasons for not fastening belts. Estimates of fatalities in a head-on collision scenario indicated lap belts and shoulder belts were perceived to provide equal protection. In Experiment 2, 147 students at the University of Houston completed a follow-up questionnaire. Usage patterns were virtually the same as in Experiment 1. Estimates of likelihood to use lap belts after viewing six different warnings about seat belt use showed warnings containing more explicit hazard information were likely to lead to higher use rates.

Risk is defined as the probability of a specific adverse event occurring within a specific period, while Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is the development of a quantitative estimate of risk based on engineering evaluation and mathematical techniques by combining estimate of incident consequences and frequencies. In view of the increase in the use of railways as the mode of transportation for hazardous materials throughout the world, the associated risk analysis should be taken into concern. In this study, the failure frequency of the transportation of ammonia from the Petronas fertilizers Kedah (PFK) plant in Gurun (Northern part of Peninsular Malaysia), to the Chemical Company Malaysia (CCM) fertilizer's facilities in Port Klang (South-western part of Peninsular Malaysia) was evaluated by incorporating the human error assessment. The study highlighted the importance of human error contributions in the failure frequency analysis and its impact on the selected failure scenarios. Besides, it also shows that the application of the human error assessment and reduction technique (HEART), which is a useful human reliability analysis tool, should be used in parallel with the fuzzy arithmetic approach to reduce the uncertainties involved in the estimation of human error probabilities, and hence, to reduce the likelihood of incorrect risks estimates being assessed. The results suggested that the commonly applied approach in quantitative risk assessments, which only consider equipment failures in the failure frequency estimations, are clearly an underestimate of the potential causes of failures leading to hazardous material releases, and hence, the calculated risks based do not reflect the actual risks. © 2008 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Process Saf Prog, 2009

The finding that drivers may react to safety interventions in a way that is contrary to what was intended is the phenomenon of behavioural adaptation. This phenomenon has been demonstrated across various safety interventions and has serious implications for road safety programs the world over. The present research used a driving simulator to assess behavioural adaptation in drivers’ speed and lateral displacement in response to manipulations of road width. Of interest was whether behavioural adaptation would occur and whether we could determine whether it was the result of explicit, conscious decisions or implicit perceptual processes. The results supported an implicit, zero perceived risk model of behavioural adaptation with reduced speeds on a narrowed road accompanied by increased ratings of risk and a marked inability of the participants to identify that any change in road width had occurred.

Hydraulic fracturing ('fracking') has enabled the recovery of previously inaccessible resources and rendered new areas of the underground 'productive'. While a number of studies in the US and UK have examined public attitudes toward fracking and its various impacts, how people conceptualise the deep underground itself has received less attention. We argue that views on resources, risk and the deep underground raise important questions about how people perceive the desirability and viability of subterranean interventions. We conducted day-long deliberation workshops (two in each country), facilitating discussions among diverse groups of people on prospective shale extraction in the US and UK. Themes that emerged in these conversations include seeing the Earth as a foundation; natural limits (a greater burden than the subsurface can withstand versus simply overuse of natural resources); and ideas about the fragility, instability and opacity of the deep underground. We find that concerns in both countries were not limited to specific, localised impacts but also addressed ecosystem links between surface and subsurface environments and broader questions about the use, identification and value of natural resources.

Despite the fact that insurance is a ubiquitous core institution of modern society, a sociological theory of insurance does not yet exist. This article aims at suggesting some hypotheses which can help filling the gap. Insurance has been pertinently defined as "the archetype of modernist governance of the future". Consequently, a sociological research on insurance institution should answer three preliminary questions: First, when we talk about the future, what are we actually talking about? Second, how is it possible to govern the future in the present? Finally, what is the modernity of this modernist governance of the future, and why does insurance represent its archetype? Moving from a comparison between prudence and providence, it is suggested that insurance turns uncertainty into possibilities. In this way, the decision-maker who takes out insurance can plan for the planningness of the future-that is, whatever happens, he relies on an open future. This article suggests, eventually, that the theory of evolution is conceptually well equipped to explain why an institution that at the beginning (that is, in the late Middle Ages) was regarded as a form of deviation has become normal over time.

To examine the effects of local versus global message framing concerning climate change, data were gathered from 114 undergraduate students at a Southern US coastal university. The experiment accounted for participants' perceived attachment to their environments (place attachment) to observe whether it related to increased engagement and risk perceptions. Messages were most effective in eliciting environmental action when local effects of climate change were emphasized. Those reporting more connection to their local environments perceived more risks and intended more mitigating actions. The results may assist practitioners, researchers, and decision makers in developing more effective approaches to climate change mitigation.

KEYWORDS: climate communication, message framing, place attachment, risk perceptions, visual communication

During the past two decades, the body of empirical research on warning design and evaluation has grown. Consequently, there are now basic principles and guidelines addressing warning design (e.g., signal words, color, symbols, and text/content), placement (e.g., location within product instructions), and how to enhance the usability of designs by considering factors internal to the user (e.g., beliefs, perceptions of risk, stress). Similarly, evaluation methods have been developed that can be used to measure the effectiveness of warnings such as the degree to which warnings are communicated to recipients and the degree to which they encourage or influence behavioral compliance. An overview of the empirical literature on warning guidelines and evaluation approaches is provided. Researchers, practitioners, and manufacturers can use these guidelines in various contexts to reduce the likelihood that injury and product damage from exposure lo a hazard will occur.

Individuals at increased risk of developing breast cancer due to their family history of the disease face a number of uncertainties. Personal cancer risk estimates are imprecise and current methods for early detection or prevention are not 100% effective. It is therefore not surprising that adverse psychosocial outcomes have been described within this population. Research attempting to predict the incidence of distress and dysfunction in individuals at increased risk of cancer has been largely a-theoretical and has overlooked a number of potentially important predictive variables. In particular, the influence of personal experience of cancer through involvement with affected relatives has been neglected. There are strong theoretical grounds for hypothesising that dimensions of personal experience may influence response to cancer risk. This paper discusses the potential impact of personal experience on risk perception, illness representations and decision-making. Systematic research ...

Background: Sexual health interventions against sexual contraction and transmission of HIV in most developing countries such as Zambia, are often biased towards heterosexual sexual health interventions. This act tends to exclude minority sexual groups such as men who have sex with men whose existence could affect the transmission and spread of the virus. This paper therefore sought to present an analysis of the exclusion of sexual minorities in sexual health education interventions in Zambia. Methods: This paper employed a desk-based-research study and relied mainly on the review of secondary data in form of Ministry of Health (MOH) and National Aids Council (NAC) strategic documents and scholarly journals, articles and research papers relevant to the topic. Results: A knowledge gap on sexual health education exists amongst the sexual minority groups in the few studies assessed. This can be attributed to the fact that the Zambian society is believed to be heterosexual with most interventions adopting a heterosexual stance towards sexual health education. Limited thought to the sexual health concerns of men who have sex with men in Zambia can be attributed to criminal laws against acts of homosexuality, societal disdain for acts of a non-heterosexual nature, and religious teachings against acts of a non-heterosexual nature. Lack of consideration of sexual minorities and their sexual activities may have serious effects on their sexual health knowledge levels and sexual practices.

In the last two decades, there has been heightened interest from industry, government and consumers regarding the effectiveness of warnings, and this interest has corresponded with an upsurge of research on the topic.  This book provides a comprehensive review and analysis of major issues in the theory, research, and applications of warnings and risk communication.  Its contributors include leading US and international experts.
Warnings and Risk Communication begins with a section containing an overview chapter introducing the area and telling some of its history.  This is followed by a chapter describing a communication-human information processing (C-HIP) model that serves as a theoretical framework and an organizational basis for the research literature presented in subsequent chapters.  The second section describes methods for investigating warning effectiveness issues.  Techniques on how to conduct research measuring the effects of warning at intermediate processing stages (such as attention and comprehension) and on behavioral intentions and compliance are detailed.  The third section consists of seven chapters based on the stages of the C-HIP model, with each chapter reviewing the associated warning research and theory.  The fourth section provides practical guidance for developing effective warnings.  Standards, regulations and guidelines are discussed, and procedures for developing and testing warnings are presented.  In the fifth section, the book concludes with two chapters addressing forensics issues.  Legal concerns in warning design and failure to warn are examined, and the role of the warnings expert witness in litigation is described.
Warnings and Risk Communication is an authoritative sourcebook on the theory, research and applications in the field.  It provides a resource for professionals and academics in diverse domains that range from human factors/ergonomics, engineering psychology, marketing, and design, to industry, government, and litigation.  Improving occupational and consumer safety is the book's foremost goal.

Risk policy and public attitudes appear disconnected from research predicting warmer climate partially due to human activity. To step out of this stalled situation, a worst case scenario of a 5- to 6-m sea level rise (SLR) induced by the collapse of the WAIS and occurring during the period 2030–2130 is constructed and applied to the Rhone delta. Physical and socio-economic scenarios developed with data from the Rhone delta context are developed and submitted to stakeholders for a day-long workshop. Group process analysis shows a high level of trust and cooperation mobilized to face the 5–6 m SLR issue, despite potentially diverging interests. Two sets of recommendations stem from the scenario workshop. A conservative “wait and see” option is decided when the risk of the WAIS collapse is announced in 2030. After WAIS collapse generates an effective 1 m SLR rise by 2050, decisions are taken for total retreat and rendering of the Rhone delta to its hydrological function. The transposition of these results into present-day policy decisions could be considered. The methodology developed here could be applied to other risk objects and situations, and serve for policy exercises and crisis prevention.

Risk and opportunity are present in the lives of people and organizations of all types and sizes, exposed to the influences and factors, internal and external, that interfere with the possibility and when both are trying to reach an objective.

The way organizations manage risks and opportunities varies according to their culture, processes, structure and strategies. However, based on the environment where they are working on and the established criteria for assessing the importance of risks and opportunities, they identify, analyze, evaluate, process, monitor and control risks and opportunities, thereby establishing a self-management process.

Odebrecht also has a risk and opportunity management process at work within the corporate and contracts level, in which there is a culture reasonably implemented for the stages of proposal preparation and contract terms negotiation. The final product of the process above is in general a risk matrix from which teams define insurances to be contracted and their coverage, the general contingency level (negative contingencies less positive contingencies) to be included in the offer, as well as the directives to be used during the contract negotiation stage.
However, the same cannot be said about the risk management process during implementation and progress of the project. Few are the contracts that identify new risks and opportunities or re-evaluate the earlier ones after contracting, by monitoring and controlling them, which certainly could minimize the occurrence of surprises, problems and crisis management and possibly improve the leverage on opportunities, increasing the likelihood of project success.

The objective of this paper is to propose a methodology to be applied for monitoring and control of risks and opportunities during the implementation of the projects, consistent with the Odebrecht culture, and with good risk and opportunities management practices.

The coronavirus pandemic has been sweeping the world for more than a year. As physical health begins to stabilize in the western world, an increasing concern is related to the impact of the virus and its containment measures on people's mental health. This work aimed to explore the effect of demographic factors (age, gender, level of education, and socioeconomic status) and variables such as fear of COVID-19 and social support in predicting the quality of life and mental health of adults during the first wave of the pandemic in Italy. Through an online survey with 1087 Italian adults (M = 39.7, SD = 16.39; 74.4% women), gender and socioeconomic status emerged as crucial factors in determining differences regarding people's responses and reactions to the pandemic. In addition, the results highlighted the importance of perceived social support and a moderate fear of COVID-19 in predicting people's quality of life and mental health. The study suggests important guidelines for the development of interventions to support the population's well-being and mental health.

Protection motivation theory states individuals conduct threat and coping appraisals when deciding how to respond to perceived risks. However, that model does not adequately explain today's risk culture, where engaging in recommended behaviors may create a separate set of real or perceived secondary risks. We argue for and then demonstrate the need for a new model accounting for a secondary threat appraisal, which we call secondary risk theory. In an online experiment, 1,246 participants indicated their intention to take a vaccine after reading about the likelihood and severity of side effects. We manipulated likelihood and severity in a 2 × 2 between-subjects design and examined how well secondary risk theory predicts vaccination intention compared to protection motivation theory. Protection motivation theory performed better when the likelihood and severity of side effects were both low (R 2 = 0.30) versus high (R 2 = 0.15). In contrast, secondary risk theory performed similarly when the likelihood and severity of side effects were both low (R 2 = 0.42) or high (R 2 = 0.45). But the latter figure is a large improvement over protection motivation theory, suggesting the usefulness of secondary risk theory when individuals perceive a high secondary threat.