Books / Kitap / Tez by Bayram Sinkaya
Institut français d’études anatoliennes, 2019
After the JDP came to power in Turkey in 2002, much has changed in Turkish foreign policy as well... more After the JDP came to power in Turkey in 2002, much has changed in Turkish foreign policy as well as profound changes in international, regional and domestic contexts surrounding it. Particularly fluctuations in Turkish-Iranian relations in the course of seventeen years have been very puzzling, and complicated, which made it worthy of study. Once, relations between the two states have so improved that some pundits regarded it as an evidence of shift of axis in Turkish foreign policy. Soon later, Ankara and Tehran embroiled in a regional competition that reminded the Ottoman-Safavid rivalry of the 16th century with its strategic and sectarian implications. Later on, they have developed amicable relations. Against this background one may question how could we understand that very dynamic nature of Turkish-Iranian relations? Considering this complicated and dynamic picture, we should analyse decisive factors in the relations between Ankara and Tehran. In other words, what has changed - and has been changing - in Turkish-Iranian relations after the JDP? In order to comprehend the complicated and dynamic interactions between Ankara and Tehran, this research goes beyond the JDP period in Turkey and put forwards a review of the history of Turkish-Iranian relations. And then, it focuses on the JDP period and analyse relations between Ankara and Tehran from diplomatic, economic and regional perspectives. Finally, it makes some speculations on the future of Turkish-Iranian relations. It argues that the complicated relationship between the two countries have been determined by a configuration of geopolitical context, structural factors, and the ruling elite. The JDP elite have employed rationalization, institutionalization and compartmentalization strategies to further Turkish-Iranian relations. However, they could not go beyond the diplomatic culture that set the longer history of interactions between the two countries on a fine course between bitter rivalry and friendly relations.
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About the Book
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has been dubbed the ‘kingmaker’ i... more About the Book
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has been dubbed the ‘kingmaker’ in recent studies of Iranian politics, precipitating heated debates surrounding the potential militarization of the Iranian regime and giving rise to paradoxical understandings of the IRGC; whether as a military institution entering politics, or a political institution with a military history.
Revolutionary Guards in Iranian Politics offers a way out of this paradox by showing that the IRGC is not a recently politicized institution, but has instead been highly politicized since its inception. It identifies the ways in which the IRGC relates to national political dynamics, examines the factors contributing to this relationship, and its implications on Iranian politics from the revolution up to the present day. The book examines the three decades following the revolution, uncovering the reasons behind the rise of the Revolutionary Guards and tracking the organization’s evolving relationship with politics. Establishing a theoretical framework from revolution and civil-military relations theories, this book provides new perspectives on the relationship between the IRGC and Iranian politics.
This book would be of interest to students and scholars of Middle East Studies and Iranian Studies, in particular Iranian Politics.
https://www.routledge.com/products/9781138853645
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This study sought to answer why conflict in Turkey-Iran relations increased
in the covered perio... more This study sought to answer why conflict in Turkey-Iran relations increased
in the covered period, considering –relatively- smooth relations between Turkey and
Iran in the 1980s, and thermidorizing of Iran in the 1990s. Indeed, ideology has had
an important place in bilateral relations between Iran and Turkey for a long time.
Ideological factors constituted the immediate reasons for conflict between Turkey
and Iran in the 1990s as well. However, ideological differences between the two
countries did not cause any serious conflict in the 1980s. Then, the question arises,
why and how did ideological reasons led to severe frictions between Iran and Turkey
in the 1990s. In this regard, this thesis paid attention to two factors that have
profound effects on the foreign policies of Turkey and Iran; changing internal
conditions, and the changing geopolitics of Turkey and Iran after the dissolution of
the USSR and the Gulf War of 1991.
Keywords: Turkey, Iran, Thermidor, Ideological Confrontation, Geopolitical
Competition, Northern Iraq, Caucasus, Central Asia, Economy, Cooperation.
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Articles by Bayram Sinkaya
Türkiye İran Araştımaları Dergisi, 2022
Revolutionary process in Yemen that begun in February 2011 ended up with the Houthi movement’s (t... more Revolutionary process in Yemen that begun in February 2011 ended up with the Houthi movement’s (that is also called Ansarollah) takeover of Sanaa, the capital city, on September 21, 2014. The takeover has drawn attention to Houthis’ ties with Iran and unleashed a debate on whether the Houthi movement is a new proxy of Tehran. Likewise, subsequent military intervention of Saudi-led international coalition to re- verse the Houthis march to power is also discussed within the framework of a proxy war between Riyad and Tehran. However, the frame of proxy relationship leads to the underestimation of multi-layered, inter- sected confrontations among a multitude of actors, and changing characteristics of the protracted conflict. Indeed, the conflict in Yemen has evolved from the Houthi uprising to a prolonged civil war that drew lead- ing regional powers and had regional ramifications. The Houthis also turned from local insurgents to na- tional actors, and to virtually regional players. Unfolding of the Yemeni conflict from a local insurgency to a protractive regional conflict has also transformed the Houthis’ relations with Tehran. This article aimed at elaborating the Houthis’ changing relations with Iran over the course of time. It is argued that initially there was a distant relationship between the Houthis and Iran, which evolved in two decades into a close relationship of “brothers in arms”.
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Ulisa: Uluslararası Çalışmalar Dergisi Ulisa: Journal of International Studies , 2018
The Arab Spring of 2011 has revived an academic interest in social movements and revolutions in t... more The Arab Spring of 2011 has revived an academic interest in social movements and revolutions in the Middle East, which was used to be associated with the persistence of authoritarianism. Although the Arab Spring has come up with different outcomes in various countries, currently, there is a burgeoning literature that studies reasons, processes and outcomes of recent social movements and revolutions particularly in the Middle East. In fact, the subject of social movements and revolutions has been underestimated and underexplored in the Middle East studies, or Social Movements studies for a long time. This article argues that despite the negligence of the relevant literature, history of the Middle East has witnessed numerous social movements and revolutions. Then, it provides a historical overview of Middle Eastern revolutions. Against this background, this paper attempts to analyze potential reasons of the aloofness the literature towards social movements and revolutions the Middle East.
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British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, 2017
The Kurdish question has played a complicated role in relations between Iran and Turkey. After th... more The Kurdish question has played a complicated role in relations between Iran and Turkey. After the emergence of modern states, Iran and Turkey were mostly preoccupied with security issues, which dominated relations between the two countries. Then, the Kurdish issue occupied a leading place in Iranian-Turkish relations either as a source of conflict, competition or as a source of cooperation. This article aims to review the Kurdish question in Iran, and influence of the Kurdish issue on Iran-Turkey relations since the ‘Islamic revolution’ of 1979. In this regard, it addresses the Kurdish question as a security issue in Iran and analyzes the Islamic Republic’s policies with regards to it. And then it turns to Iranian-Turkish relations and analyzes the role of the Kurdish question as a source of conflict, competition and cooperation between the two countries. Finally it deals with implications of the new regional dynamics of the Kurdish question and their effects on Iran’s relations with Turkey.
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Ortadoğu Etütleri, Jul 2016
Contrary to the expectations of many observers, Turkey adopted a ‘cautious’ stand with regard to ... more Contrary to the expectations of many observers, Turkey adopted a ‘cautious’ stand with regard to the nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1, fi- nalized in July 2015, which aimed at a political solution to the long-lasting controversy over Iran’s nuclear program. Relations between Turkey and Iran worsened considerably soon after the nuclear deal, arguably for geopolitical reasons. While the two countries quickly reinstated their relations, as signified by high-level visits between Ankara and Tehran, they have not overcome their differences and geopolitical concerns. This article draws at- tention to the two simultaneously working but contrasting trends in Iran-Turkey relations: one working for conflict and competition and the other for cooperation and dialogue. In order to explain the seemingly rapid changes in relations between Ankara and Tehran through the simulta- neous operation of these two contrasting trends, this study offers the concept of compartmental- ization.
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Ortadoğu Etütleri, vol.6, no.2, Jan 2015
This article attempts to review effects of the Arab
Spring on Iran’s policy toward the Middle E... more This article attempts to review effects of the Arab
Spring on Iran’s policy toward the Middle East. It ar-gues that Iran could not have developed a consistent
policy towards the region, because implications of the
Arab Spring have varied in time in accordance with
subsequent, emerging developments. The initial op-timism of the Iranian leadership with regard to the
Arab upheavals, gave way to prudent caution and
rising anxiety as the expected opportunities brought
by upheavals were overwhelmed by new challenges
to Iran’s regional strategy. With a new approach to
foreign policy that highlighted moderation and con-structive interaction with international actors, new
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has striven to neu-tralize the Arab Spring’s adverse effects on the regional
policy of Iran.
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This article examines Turkish- Iranian relations in the 2000s, when the two countries initiated a... more This article examines Turkish- Iranian relations in the 2000s, when the two countries initiated an unprecedented rappprochement. It argues that modification of foreign policy paradigms in Turkey and Iran led to the rationalization
of bilateral relations that paved the way for improvement of
economic and political ties between the two states. In
addition to the rationalization, a supportive regional context
helped them expand their relations. However, structural differences prevent the Turkish-Iranian rapprochement from turning into a strategic partnership. Moreover, restructuring of the regional context and rise of the specter of a conflictual relationship, which is still alive, threaten the future of Turkish-Iranian relations.
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Under George W. Bush’s leadership, the United States has sought to use “soft power” in the region... more Under George W. Bush’s leadership, the United States has sought to use “soft power” in the region. The main instrument has been the Middle East Partnership Initiative, by which the United States seeks to promote democracy, human rights and economic development. Along the same lines, in late 2003 the US officials started to pronounce the Greater Middle East Initiative (GMEI). Thus, the traditional US stance of favouring the Middle Eastern status quo was replaced by a policy of actively promoting liberal democracy, market economies and educational reforms. Problems in those areas were deemed to be causes of terrorism.
The success of this initiative requires the cooperation of the regional countries. In this context, this article argues that Turkey’s support for the initiative is critical because of its geo-strategic location, its record as a long-term ally of the West, its longtime experience with democracy and its emergence as a country successfully combining Islam and Western values. The importance of the subject is further underlined by the background of the ruling Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi (Justice and Development Party, AKP), which, though originating from an Islamist tradition, claims to be merging modernism, liberal democracy and tradition (Islam). The article, thus, analyzes Turkey’s position towards the GMEI with particular reference to the AK Party’s role.
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The Caucasus was one of the areas where Ottoman-Iran rivalry
revolved around. After the dissolut... more The Caucasus was one of the areas where Ottoman-Iran rivalry
revolved around. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, a power
vacuum arose over the Caucasus and Central Asia, where Turkey and Iran competition revived. Because of security considerations of the two countries and of their political and economic interests, Iran and Turkey adopted ambitious policies in the region that led to competition between them. Moreover, due to geographical proximity and geopolitical reasons, competition between Iran and Turkey intensified particularly over the Caucasus. This article aims at analyzing the Turco-Iranian geopolitical competition over the Caucasus and Central Asia throughout the 1990s. It argues that geopolitical competition between Turkey and Iran had a great impact on their bilateral relations in this period creating a conflictual atmosphere between the two countries. In this regard, this article reviews Turkey and Iran’s relations with the newly independent states of Central Asia and the Caucasus, and then analyses the Turco-Iranian geopolitical competition.
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Thıs article discusses the role of ideology in Turkish-Iranian relations, internal developments i... more Thıs article discusses the role of ideology in Turkish-Iranian relations, internal developments in these countries and their effects on bilateral relations between the two states, as well as geopolitical competition between Turkey and Iran over Iraq, Central Asia and the Caucasus. Reviewing the relations between Turkey and Iran since the 1979 revolution in Iran, one may identify an increase in ideological frictions between the two states in the 1990s in comparison to their relations in the 1980s. However, unlike in the 1980s, when ideology dominated Iranian politics and foreign policy, the role of ideology in Iranian politics gradually decreased throughout the 1990s. Ironically this period in Turkish-Iranian relations was dominated by ideological tensions. Hence, this article seeks answers to the question why
and how ideological reasons led to severe frictions in the 1990s despite the declining role of ideology in Iran. It argues that geopolitical developments following the demise of the USSR and the Gulf War led to the eruption of Turco-Iran competition over Iraq and over the Caucasus and the Central Asia which created a “conflictual” atmosphere in Turkey-Iran relations. Morover,
internal developments in these two countries have added fuel to the fire, and ideological differences between the two states have become a source of further conflict/friction between Iran and Turkey.
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This article assumes that the U.S. is intent on the democratization of the Middle
East, and at t... more This article assumes that the U.S. is intent on the democratization of the Middle
East, and at this stage places a priority to Iran. However, it should be noted that
instead of promoting current democratic trends within Iran, the U.S. favors
enforcement strategies which support the opposition to the regime. The author
argues that the U.S. should be working towards more gradual transformation within
the existing system instead of working with progressive elements of the regime
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Makaleler by Bayram Sinkaya
İnsan & Toplum, 2020
Suriye’de 2011’de başlayan rejim karşıtı gösterilerin güvenlik güçleri ile göstericiler arasında ... more Suriye’de 2011’de başlayan rejim karşıtı gösterilerin güvenlik güçleri ile göstericiler arasında çatışmalara dönüşmesiyle patlak veren ve sekiz yılı aşkın süredir devam eden iç savaş, ülkede yaşayan tüm toplumsal grupları derinden etkiledi. Uzun süredir iktidarı elinde tutan Esad ailesinin Arap Alevi kökenleri ve çatışmaların hızla mezhepçi bir hal alması, dikkatleri Arap Alevi toplumunun üzerine yöneltti. Hem Esad yönetiminin devamı hem de muhalefetin rejim karşısındaki başarısı açısından Arap Alevilerin alacağı tavır oldukça kritik görüldü. Bu minvalde Arap Alevilerin Esad yönetimiyle ve muhalefetle ilişkileri değişik mahfillerde çokça tartışıldı. Ancak, bu zamana kadar iç savaşın Arap Aleviler üzerindeki etkileriyle ilişkili kayda değer bir çalışma yapılmadı. Alevilerin kaygıları ve çatışmalardan nasıl etkilendiği üzerinde pek durulmadı. Arap Alevi toplumunun içindeki ayrışmalar ve hem rejimle hem de muhalefetle geliştirdikleri komplike ilişkiler göz ardı edildi. Bu makale, rejim karşıtı gösterilerin iç savaşa dönüştüğü süreçte ve iç savaş boyunca Suriyeli Arap Alevilerin durumunu analiz etmeyi hedeflemektedir. Bu bağlamda Arap Alevilerin hem Esad rejimi hem de muhalefetle ilişkileri incelenmiş ve iç savaşın Alevi toplumu üzerindeki etkileri tartışılmıştır. Rejim karşıtı gösteriler karşısında Alevi toplumunun yeknesak hareket etmediği, bir kısmının Esad yönetiminin yanında dururken önemli bir kısmının muhalefete meylettiği ortaya konulmuştur. Ancak çatışmaların zamanla mezhepçi bir hal alması, Alevilerin çoğunluğunun toplumsal güvenlik kaygılarını tetiklemiş ve İslamcı grupların ağırlığının giderek arttığı muhalefet karşısında Esad yönetimini desteklemesine sebep olmuştur. Bununla beraber Alevilerin Esad yönetimi ile ilişkilerinin problemsiz olduğu söylenemez ve Esad’a verdiği destek yalnızca mezhepçi sebeplerle açıklanamaz. Bu desteğin sosyolojik, tarihsel ve siyasi nedenleri vardır.
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Akademik Orta Doğu, 2017
Öz İran-Suriye ittifakı Ortadoğu'daki en uzun süren ittifaklardan birisi olarak kabul edilir. Son... more Öz İran-Suriye ittifakı Ortadoğu'daki en uzun süren ittifaklardan birisi olarak kabul edilir. Son yıllarda Suriye'de iç savaşa dönüşen kriz ve Suriye krizi etrafında şekillenen bölgesel gerilim bu ittifak ilişkisini daha da güçlendirmiştir. Bu ittifakın bu kadar dayanıklı olmasının en önemli sebebi İran'ın bölgesel politikalarında Suriye'ye verdiği stratejik önemdir. Esad yönetimindeki Suriye, yalnızca bir müttefik olarak değil, aynı zamanda İran'ın savunma stratejisine 'stratejik derinlik' kazandırması açısından son derece değerlidir. Bu nedenle İran, Suriyekrizinin başından beri kararlı bir şekilde Esad yönetimini desteklemiştir. Bu çalışmada İran'ın Suriye politikası ve Suriye krizi karşısında nasıl bir strateji izlediği incelenecektir. Bu çerçevede öncelikle İran'ın Ortadoğu politikasında Suriye'nin yeri, daha sonra İran'ın Suriye'deki stratejik hedefleri ve Suriye krizi karşısında izlediği politikalar tartışılacaktır. Abstract The alliance between Iran and Syria is widely regarded as one of the long-lasting alliances in the Middle East. Recent crisis in Syria that turned into a civil war, and the ensuing regional tension have underpinned that alliance relationship. The principal reason of the resilience of this alliance is the strategic position of Syria within the framework of Iran's regional policies. Syria under the Assad administration is valuable to Iran not only as an ally, but also because of its place that contributes to the 'strategic depth' of Iranian defense strategy. Fort his reason Iran resolutely backed the Assad administration since the beginning of the Syria crisis. This addresses Iran's policy towards Syria and its strategy vis-à-vis the crisis. In this respect, it will review the place of Syria in Iranian Middle East policy, Iran's strategic aims in Syria and its policies towards the Syria crisis. Giriş Rejim karşıtı gösterilerin ortaya çıkmasıyla başlayıp, güvenlik güçleri ile muhalifler arasındaki çatışmaların iç savaşa dönmesiyle giderek ağırlaşanSuriye krizinin en önemli aktörlerinden birisi İran oldu. Öyle ki İran, başından beri Beşar Esad yönetiminin en güçlü destekçisidir. Hatta İran " ın Suriye politikası belirli bir noktadan sonra Esad " ı tüm imkânlarla desteklemenin ötesine geçti ve İran güçleri sahadaki çatışmalarda bizzat aktif bir rol oynamaya başladı. Dolayısıyla, Suriye meselesi ile ilgili olarak en çok Yrd.Doç.Dr., Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt Üniversitesi, Uluslararası İlişkiler Bölümü.
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Akademik Orta Doğu, 2015
Mart 2011'de rejim karşıtı gösterilerle başlayıp kısa süre içerisinde iç savaşa dönüşen Suriye kr... more Mart 2011'de rejim karşıtı gösterilerle başlayıp kısa süre içerisinde iç savaşa dönüşen Suriye krizinde Esad yönetiminin en büyük destekçisi İran oldu. İran, bir taraftan Suriye rejimine askeri ve ekonomik destek sağlarken diğer taraftan diplomatik sahada Beşar Esad'ın Suriye'nin meşru devlet başkanı olduğunu ve 'terörizme' karşı mücadele ettiğini savundu. Siyasi ve ekonomik maliyetlerine rağmen İran hükümetinin kararlı bir şekilde Esad yönetiminin arkasında durması, Tahran ile Şam arasındaki 35 yıllık ittifakın korunmasını sağladı. İran siyasetinde zaman zaman yükselen pragmatizme karşın bütün maliyetlerine rağmen Suriye ile ittifak ilişkisinin sürdürülmesi, devrim sonrası İran dış politikasındaki süreklilik unsurlarından birisi oldu. Bu nedenle, İran'ın Suriye krizi karşısındaki tutumunu anlayabilmek için Şam–Tahran ittifakının temellerinin incelenmesi gerekir. Bu ittifakın Şam ile Tahran arasında ortak güvenlik kaygıları ve ortak bölgesel çıkarlar üzerine bina edildiği görülmektedir. Ortadoğu'ya yönelik bölgesel politikaları ile güvenlik politikalarında Suriye'ye stratejik bir önem veren İran yönetimi, bu ülkedeki etkinliğini korumak ve sürdürmekve Suriye'yi sözde direniş ekseninde tutmak amacıyla Esad yönetimine her türlü desteği vermektedir. Abstract Iran is the principal supporter of the Assad administration throughout the Syrian crisis that began with the anti-government rallies in March 2011 and rapidly evolved into a civil war. Iran provided the Syrian regime with military and economic support, whereas advocating Bashar Assad in diplomatic forums as the legitimate president of Syria who is fighting against 'terrorism.' Notwithstanding its political and economic costs,Iranian government maintained the preservation of 35-year old alliance between Damascus and Tehran by backing Assad administration in a decisive way. Against the pragmatism that occasionally arose in Iranian politics, the maintenance of alliance with Syria despite its growing costs, is one of the continuities in post-revolutionary
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Özet
İran’da İslam Devrimi Muhafızları Ordusu’nun (İDMO) siyasette giderek artan etkinliğini ç... more Özet
İran’da İslam Devrimi Muhafızları Ordusu’nun (İDMO) siyasette giderek artan etkinliğini çözümlemek amacıyla kaleme alınan bu makalede İran’ın bir devrim ülkesi ve İDMO’nun da devrimci bir ordu olduğu tespitinden hareketle öncelikle devrimci ordu-siyaset ilişkileri tartışılmıştır. Devrimci ordu-siyaset ilişkisinin tanımından doğan iki tarafı vardır; devrimci ordu ve yönetici elitler. Devrimci ordunun ideolojik bakışı ve ordu mensuplarının birlik algısı (corporateness) ile siyasi liderlerin ideolojik konumu ve siyasi güçleri devrimci ordunun siyaset ile ilişkisini belirlemektedir. Bu faktörlerin devrimin izleyen aşamalarında farklı birliktelikleri devrimci ordu-siyaset ilişkisinin tarzını belirlerken, bu aktörlerdeki değişiklikler devrimci ordu-siyaset ilişkisinin tarzının değişmesine yol açmaktadır. İran örneğinde de Devrim Muhafızlarının ideolojik duruşu ve Muhafızlar arasındaki birlik algısı ile siyasi liderlerin ideolojik duruşu ve siyasi iktidarın gücü, İDMO’nun siyasetle ilişkilerini belirlemiştir. Devrim Muhafızlarının birlik algısı giderek güçlenirken siyasal elitlerin parçalanması ve hizipler arası mücadelenin yoğunlaşması nedeniyle İDMO, İran siyasetinde etkili bir aktör olmaya başlamıştır. Siyasi iktidar ile İDMO arasındaki ideolojik uyum veya uyumsuzluk ise İDMO-siyaset ilişkisinin çatışmacı ya da işbirlikçi niteliğini belirlemiştir.
Anahtar Kelimeler: Devrimci Ordu, Asker-Siyaset İlişkisi, İran, Devrim Muhafızları,İran Siyaseti.
Abstract
Considering the fact that Iran is a revolutionary country and the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) is a revolutionary army, this article that is intended to analyze IRGC-politics relationship, primarily addresses revolutionary army-politics relationship. There are two natural parties to the revolutionary army-politics relationship; revolutionary army and ruling elite. In addition to ideological viewpoint of a revolutionary army and sense of corporateness among its members, ideological position of political leadership and its political power determine revolutionary army’s relationship to politics. Whereas various combinations of those factors in succeeding phases of the revolution shape the type of revolutionary army-politics relationship, any shift in any of those factors leads to change of that type. In the case of Iran, ideological viewpoint of the Revolutionary Guards and sense of corporateness among its ranks, ideological position of the ruling leadership and its political power determined the IRGC’s relationship to politics. Because of disintegration of the political elite and intensification of factional infighting among them while sense of corporateness consolidated among the Revolutionary Guards, the IRGC emerged as an influential actor in Iranian politics. Ideological congruence or incongruence between the political leadership and the IRGC has determined cooperative or confrontationist form of the IRGC-politics relationship.
بقلم : بايرام سينكايا
خلاصة :
ينطلق هذا البحث من مقولة ان ايران هي بلد الثورة وان حرّس الثورة فيها يشكلون
جيشا ثوريا. ولذا يقتضي لأجل تحليل العلاقة بين الحرس الثوري وبين السياسة في
ايران، ان نناقش اولا علاقة الجيش الثوري بالسياسة. ان هناك طرفين ناشئين من
تعريف علاقة الجيش الثوري بالسياسة، الجيش الثوري والاداريون من الطبقة الراقية.
ان النظرة الايديولوجية للجيش الثوري، ومفهوم الوحدة لدى منتسبي الجيش والوضع
الايديولوجي والقوة السياسية للقادة السياسيين، تحدد علاقة الجيش الثوري بالسياسة.
ان تواجد هذه العوامل على صعيد واحد في الفترات التي اعقبت الثورة، يحدد شكل
علاقة الجيش الثوري بالسياسة، في حين تعمل التغيرات التي تحصل في هذه العوامل
على فسح المجال لتغير طرز العلاقة بين الجيش الثوري وبين السياسة. وبالنسبة
للنموذج الايراني ايضا، فان الموقف الايديولوجي لحراس الثورة ونظرة التوحد بين
حراس الثورة والموقف الايديولوجي للقادة السياسيين وقوة السلطة السياسية، قد حددت
بمجموعها علاقات الحرس الثوري بالسياسة. وفي حين يزداد شعور التوحد لدى
الحرس الثوري شيئا فشيئا، نجد ان تفرق القادة السياسيين واشتداد الصراع بين المجاميع
المختلفة يعمل على ان يكون الحرس الثوري عاملا مؤثرا في السياسة الايرانية. اما
التواؤم او الصراع بين السلطة السياسية وبين الحرس الثوري، فانهما يحددان كون
العلاقة بين الحرس الثوري وبين السياسة متسما بالصراع او ذا نزعة تعاونية.
الكلمات الدالة : الجيش الثوري ، علاقة العسكر بالسياسة ، ايران ، الحرس الثوري
، السياسة الايرانية.
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Devrim Muhafızları’nın İran siyaseti üzerindeki etkisi 1990’ların ortalarından
beri belirgin bir... more Devrim Muhafızları’nın İran siyaseti üzerindeki etkisi 1990’ların ortalarından
beri belirgin bir şekilde artmıştır. Devrim Muhafızları Hatemi’nin liderliğindeki
reformcu hükümet ile çatışma içerisinde iken onun yerini alan Ahmedinecad liderliğindeki
radikal hükümetle işbirliği içerisinde olmuştur. Bu makale, Devrim
Muhafızları’nın siyasi yükselişinde etkili olan faktörleri ve Devrim Muhafızları
– siyaset ilişkilerinin nasıl şekillendiğini incelemektedir. Makalede Muhafızların
İran siyasetindeki yükselişi Devrim Muhafızları Ordusu ekseninde ve devrim
sonrası ortaya çıkan dinamikler çerçevesinde tartışılmaktadır. 1990’lı yıllarda
kurumsallaşmasını tamamlayan ideolojik düzeyi yüksek devrimci ordunun, siyasi
elitler arasındaki bölünme ve şiddetli rekabet ortamında öneminin arttığı
görülmektedir. Böyle bir ortamda İran rejimine yönelik tehdit algılarının niteliğinin
değişmesi; askeri tehditlerin yerini kültürel saldırı, kadife devrim girişimi
gibi “yumuşak” tehditlere bırakması, Devrim Muhafızları’nın hızla siyasal alana
yönelmesine neden olmuştur. Devrim Muhafızları’nın ideolojik-siyasi bakışı
ile hükümette egemen elitlerin ideolojik duruşları arasındaki fark veya uyum
Devrim Muhafızları’nın hükümetle ilişkilerinin niteliğini belirlemiştir.
Anahtar Kelimeler: Devrim Muhafızları, İran, Asker, Siyaset, Hatemi,
Ahmedinecad.
Military-Politics Relationship in Iran and the Rise of the Revolutionary
Guards
Abstract
Influence of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) on Iranian politics has dramatically
increased since the mid-1990s. Whereas the IRGC was in conflict with
the reformist government under Khatami, it has closely cooperated with the
radical government of Ahmadinejad that replaced the reformist one. This article
analyzes influential factors on the political rise of the Guards, and the types of the IRGC – politics relationship. The rise of the Guards in Iranian
politics is studied within the framework of post-revolutionary dynamics and
characteristics of the IRGC. As an institutionalized revolutionary army with
high-level ideological commitment, the IRGC came into prominence in the
face of fragmentation of the elites and bitter rivalry among them through the
late 1990s. Meanwhile, altering threat perceptions of the Iranian regime; replacement
of the military threats by ‘soft’ threats as the cultural onslaught, and
the velvet revolution plot has rapidly increased the IRGC’s interest in the political
realm. Congruence or incongruence between the ideological/political
outlook of the IRGC and ideological position of the ruling elites has determined
type of the IRGC/politics relationship.
Keywords: Revolutionary Guards, Iran, Military, Politics, Khatami,
Ahmadinejad.
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Özet
Özet
Türkiye’nin Batı bağlantısı uzun bir süre boyunca Ortadoğu ile ilişkilerinin şeki... more Özet
Özet
Türkiye’nin Batı bağlantısı uzun bir süre boyunca Ortadoğu ile ilişkilerinin şekillenmesinde değişik açılardan olumlu ya da olumsuz bir biçimde etkili olmuştur. Ancak bu süreç son birkaç yılda tersine dönmeye başlamıştır. Bu yeni dönemde Türkiye’nin Ortadoğu ile ilişkileri öyle bir değişim göstermiştir ki bazı durumlarda Batı ile ilişkilerini olumsuz etkilemeye başlamıştır. Bu durum dikkate alınarak bu makalede Türkiye’nin Ortadoğu politikası ve bu politikada Batının etkisi ele alınmıştır. Batı, Türkiye ve Ortadoğu arasındaki bu karşılıklı etkileşimin anlaşılabilmesi için Türkiye’nin Ortadoğu politikası tarihi, bu üçlü ilişkilerdeki hâkim olan tarza göre belirli dönemlere ayrılmıştır. Makalede Türkiye’nin Batılı ve laik kimliği ile Batı ittifakına sıkı sıkıya bağlı olması nedeniyle bölgede hakim olan dinamiklerle çatışma içine girdiği, dolayısıyla Türkiye’nin uzunca bir süre bölgeden uzaklaştığı sonucuna varılmıştır. Ancak, 1990’lı yıllardan sonra hem Türkiye hem de bölge köklü dönüşüm geçirmiştir. Bu dönüşüm Türkiye’nin Ortadoğu ülkeleri ile daha iyi ilişkiler kurmasını mümkün kılmıştır. Zamanla bölgenin jeopolitik yapısındaki değişiklikler nedeniyle de Türkiye’nin Ortadoğu politikasında Batı’nın etkisi giderek azalmıştır.
Anahtar Kelimeler: Türkiye, Ortadoğu, Batı, dış politika, güvenlik.
Turkish Foreign Policy towards the Middle East from the past to the present and the Impact of the West
Abstract
Turkey’s alliance relationship with the West has dominated its Middle East policy for a long time and adversely or affirmatively affected it. However, this interaction seems to be reversed in the last couple of years. In this new era Turkish engagement with the Middle East so intensified that it started to adversely affect Turkey’s relations with the West in some cases. Considering that point, this article has dealt with Turkey’s relations with Middle East and searched for the Western impact on that relationship. In order to comprehend that interaction between the West, Turkey, and the Middle East, it divided history of Turkey-Middle East relations into several period in accordance with the dominant form of interactions. It concluded that Turkey’s political identity as Western oriented and secular country and its strict alliance relationship with the West confronted with the regional dynamics in the Middle East, which culminated in Turkey’s distance relations with the region for a long time. However, after the 1990s, both Turkey and the regions has transformed profoundly that paved the way for better relations between Turkey and the Middle Eastern countries. In the course of time, because of the geopolitical shift in the region, the Western impact on this relationship gradually decreased.
Keywords: Turkey, Middle East, West, foreign policy, security.
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Books / Kitap / Tez by Bayram Sinkaya
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has been dubbed the ‘kingmaker’ in recent studies of Iranian politics, precipitating heated debates surrounding the potential militarization of the Iranian regime and giving rise to paradoxical understandings of the IRGC; whether as a military institution entering politics, or a political institution with a military history.
Revolutionary Guards in Iranian Politics offers a way out of this paradox by showing that the IRGC is not a recently politicized institution, but has instead been highly politicized since its inception. It identifies the ways in which the IRGC relates to national political dynamics, examines the factors contributing to this relationship, and its implications on Iranian politics from the revolution up to the present day. The book examines the three decades following the revolution, uncovering the reasons behind the rise of the Revolutionary Guards and tracking the organization’s evolving relationship with politics. Establishing a theoretical framework from revolution and civil-military relations theories, this book provides new perspectives on the relationship between the IRGC and Iranian politics.
This book would be of interest to students and scholars of Middle East Studies and Iranian Studies, in particular Iranian Politics.
https://www.routledge.com/products/9781138853645
in the covered period, considering –relatively- smooth relations between Turkey and
Iran in the 1980s, and thermidorizing of Iran in the 1990s. Indeed, ideology has had
an important place in bilateral relations between Iran and Turkey for a long time.
Ideological factors constituted the immediate reasons for conflict between Turkey
and Iran in the 1990s as well. However, ideological differences between the two
countries did not cause any serious conflict in the 1980s. Then, the question arises,
why and how did ideological reasons led to severe frictions between Iran and Turkey
in the 1990s. In this regard, this thesis paid attention to two factors that have
profound effects on the foreign policies of Turkey and Iran; changing internal
conditions, and the changing geopolitics of Turkey and Iran after the dissolution of
the USSR and the Gulf War of 1991.
Keywords: Turkey, Iran, Thermidor, Ideological Confrontation, Geopolitical
Competition, Northern Iraq, Caucasus, Central Asia, Economy, Cooperation.
Articles by Bayram Sinkaya
Spring on Iran’s policy toward the Middle East. It ar-gues that Iran could not have developed a consistent
policy towards the region, because implications of the
Arab Spring have varied in time in accordance with
subsequent, emerging developments. The initial op-timism of the Iranian leadership with regard to the
Arab upheavals, gave way to prudent caution and
rising anxiety as the expected opportunities brought
by upheavals were overwhelmed by new challenges
to Iran’s regional strategy. With a new approach to
foreign policy that highlighted moderation and con-structive interaction with international actors, new
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has striven to neu-tralize the Arab Spring’s adverse effects on the regional
policy of Iran.
of bilateral relations that paved the way for improvement of
economic and political ties between the two states. In
addition to the rationalization, a supportive regional context
helped them expand their relations. However, structural differences prevent the Turkish-Iranian rapprochement from turning into a strategic partnership. Moreover, restructuring of the regional context and rise of the specter of a conflictual relationship, which is still alive, threaten the future of Turkish-Iranian relations.
The success of this initiative requires the cooperation of the regional countries. In this context, this article argues that Turkey’s support for the initiative is critical because of its geo-strategic location, its record as a long-term ally of the West, its longtime experience with democracy and its emergence as a country successfully combining Islam and Western values. The importance of the subject is further underlined by the background of the ruling Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi (Justice and Development Party, AKP), which, though originating from an Islamist tradition, claims to be merging modernism, liberal democracy and tradition (Islam). The article, thus, analyzes Turkey’s position towards the GMEI with particular reference to the AK Party’s role.
revolved around. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, a power
vacuum arose over the Caucasus and Central Asia, where Turkey and Iran competition revived. Because of security considerations of the two countries and of their political and economic interests, Iran and Turkey adopted ambitious policies in the region that led to competition between them. Moreover, due to geographical proximity and geopolitical reasons, competition between Iran and Turkey intensified particularly over the Caucasus. This article aims at analyzing the Turco-Iranian geopolitical competition over the Caucasus and Central Asia throughout the 1990s. It argues that geopolitical competition between Turkey and Iran had a great impact on their bilateral relations in this period creating a conflictual atmosphere between the two countries. In this regard, this article reviews Turkey and Iran’s relations with the newly independent states of Central Asia and the Caucasus, and then analyses the Turco-Iranian geopolitical competition.
and how ideological reasons led to severe frictions in the 1990s despite the declining role of ideology in Iran. It argues that geopolitical developments following the demise of the USSR and the Gulf War led to the eruption of Turco-Iran competition over Iraq and over the Caucasus and the Central Asia which created a “conflictual” atmosphere in Turkey-Iran relations. Morover,
internal developments in these two countries have added fuel to the fire, and ideological differences between the two states have become a source of further conflict/friction between Iran and Turkey.
East, and at this stage places a priority to Iran. However, it should be noted that
instead of promoting current democratic trends within Iran, the U.S. favors
enforcement strategies which support the opposition to the regime. The author
argues that the U.S. should be working towards more gradual transformation within
the existing system instead of working with progressive elements of the regime
Makaleler by Bayram Sinkaya
İran’da İslam Devrimi Muhafızları Ordusu’nun (İDMO) siyasette giderek artan etkinliğini çözümlemek amacıyla kaleme alınan bu makalede İran’ın bir devrim ülkesi ve İDMO’nun da devrimci bir ordu olduğu tespitinden hareketle öncelikle devrimci ordu-siyaset ilişkileri tartışılmıştır. Devrimci ordu-siyaset ilişkisinin tanımından doğan iki tarafı vardır; devrimci ordu ve yönetici elitler. Devrimci ordunun ideolojik bakışı ve ordu mensuplarının birlik algısı (corporateness) ile siyasi liderlerin ideolojik konumu ve siyasi güçleri devrimci ordunun siyaset ile ilişkisini belirlemektedir. Bu faktörlerin devrimin izleyen aşamalarında farklı birliktelikleri devrimci ordu-siyaset ilişkisinin tarzını belirlerken, bu aktörlerdeki değişiklikler devrimci ordu-siyaset ilişkisinin tarzının değişmesine yol açmaktadır. İran örneğinde de Devrim Muhafızlarının ideolojik duruşu ve Muhafızlar arasındaki birlik algısı ile siyasi liderlerin ideolojik duruşu ve siyasi iktidarın gücü, İDMO’nun siyasetle ilişkilerini belirlemiştir. Devrim Muhafızlarının birlik algısı giderek güçlenirken siyasal elitlerin parçalanması ve hizipler arası mücadelenin yoğunlaşması nedeniyle İDMO, İran siyasetinde etkili bir aktör olmaya başlamıştır. Siyasi iktidar ile İDMO arasındaki ideolojik uyum veya uyumsuzluk ise İDMO-siyaset ilişkisinin çatışmacı ya da işbirlikçi niteliğini belirlemiştir.
Anahtar Kelimeler: Devrimci Ordu, Asker-Siyaset İlişkisi, İran, Devrim Muhafızları,İran Siyaseti.
Abstract
Considering the fact that Iran is a revolutionary country and the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) is a revolutionary army, this article that is intended to analyze IRGC-politics relationship, primarily addresses revolutionary army-politics relationship. There are two natural parties to the revolutionary army-politics relationship; revolutionary army and ruling elite. In addition to ideological viewpoint of a revolutionary army and sense of corporateness among its members, ideological position of political leadership and its political power determine revolutionary army’s relationship to politics. Whereas various combinations of those factors in succeeding phases of the revolution shape the type of revolutionary army-politics relationship, any shift in any of those factors leads to change of that type. In the case of Iran, ideological viewpoint of the Revolutionary Guards and sense of corporateness among its ranks, ideological position of the ruling leadership and its political power determined the IRGC’s relationship to politics. Because of disintegration of the political elite and intensification of factional infighting among them while sense of corporateness consolidated among the Revolutionary Guards, the IRGC emerged as an influential actor in Iranian politics. Ideological congruence or incongruence between the political leadership and the IRGC has determined cooperative or confrontationist form of the IRGC-politics relationship.
بقلم : بايرام سينكايا
خلاصة :
ينطلق هذا البحث من مقولة ان ايران هي بلد الثورة وان حرّس الثورة فيها يشكلون
جيشا ثوريا. ولذا يقتضي لأجل تحليل العلاقة بين الحرس الثوري وبين السياسة في
ايران، ان نناقش اولا علاقة الجيش الثوري بالسياسة. ان هناك طرفين ناشئين من
تعريف علاقة الجيش الثوري بالسياسة، الجيش الثوري والاداريون من الطبقة الراقية.
ان النظرة الايديولوجية للجيش الثوري، ومفهوم الوحدة لدى منتسبي الجيش والوضع
الايديولوجي والقوة السياسية للقادة السياسيين، تحدد علاقة الجيش الثوري بالسياسة.
ان تواجد هذه العوامل على صعيد واحد في الفترات التي اعقبت الثورة، يحدد شكل
علاقة الجيش الثوري بالسياسة، في حين تعمل التغيرات التي تحصل في هذه العوامل
على فسح المجال لتغير طرز العلاقة بين الجيش الثوري وبين السياسة. وبالنسبة
للنموذج الايراني ايضا، فان الموقف الايديولوجي لحراس الثورة ونظرة التوحد بين
حراس الثورة والموقف الايديولوجي للقادة السياسيين وقوة السلطة السياسية، قد حددت
بمجموعها علاقات الحرس الثوري بالسياسة. وفي حين يزداد شعور التوحد لدى
الحرس الثوري شيئا فشيئا، نجد ان تفرق القادة السياسيين واشتداد الصراع بين المجاميع
المختلفة يعمل على ان يكون الحرس الثوري عاملا مؤثرا في السياسة الايرانية. اما
التواؤم او الصراع بين السلطة السياسية وبين الحرس الثوري، فانهما يحددان كون
العلاقة بين الحرس الثوري وبين السياسة متسما بالصراع او ذا نزعة تعاونية.
الكلمات الدالة : الجيش الثوري ، علاقة العسكر بالسياسة ، ايران ، الحرس الثوري
، السياسة الايرانية.
beri belirgin bir şekilde artmıştır. Devrim Muhafızları Hatemi’nin liderliğindeki
reformcu hükümet ile çatışma içerisinde iken onun yerini alan Ahmedinecad liderliğindeki
radikal hükümetle işbirliği içerisinde olmuştur. Bu makale, Devrim
Muhafızları’nın siyasi yükselişinde etkili olan faktörleri ve Devrim Muhafızları
– siyaset ilişkilerinin nasıl şekillendiğini incelemektedir. Makalede Muhafızların
İran siyasetindeki yükselişi Devrim Muhafızları Ordusu ekseninde ve devrim
sonrası ortaya çıkan dinamikler çerçevesinde tartışılmaktadır. 1990’lı yıllarda
kurumsallaşmasını tamamlayan ideolojik düzeyi yüksek devrimci ordunun, siyasi
elitler arasındaki bölünme ve şiddetli rekabet ortamında öneminin arttığı
görülmektedir. Böyle bir ortamda İran rejimine yönelik tehdit algılarının niteliğinin
değişmesi; askeri tehditlerin yerini kültürel saldırı, kadife devrim girişimi
gibi “yumuşak” tehditlere bırakması, Devrim Muhafızları’nın hızla siyasal alana
yönelmesine neden olmuştur. Devrim Muhafızları’nın ideolojik-siyasi bakışı
ile hükümette egemen elitlerin ideolojik duruşları arasındaki fark veya uyum
Devrim Muhafızları’nın hükümetle ilişkilerinin niteliğini belirlemiştir.
Anahtar Kelimeler: Devrim Muhafızları, İran, Asker, Siyaset, Hatemi,
Ahmedinecad.
Military-Politics Relationship in Iran and the Rise of the Revolutionary
Guards
Abstract
Influence of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) on Iranian politics has dramatically
increased since the mid-1990s. Whereas the IRGC was in conflict with
the reformist government under Khatami, it has closely cooperated with the
radical government of Ahmadinejad that replaced the reformist one. This article
analyzes influential factors on the political rise of the Guards, and the types of the IRGC – politics relationship. The rise of the Guards in Iranian
politics is studied within the framework of post-revolutionary dynamics and
characteristics of the IRGC. As an institutionalized revolutionary army with
high-level ideological commitment, the IRGC came into prominence in the
face of fragmentation of the elites and bitter rivalry among them through the
late 1990s. Meanwhile, altering threat perceptions of the Iranian regime; replacement
of the military threats by ‘soft’ threats as the cultural onslaught, and
the velvet revolution plot has rapidly increased the IRGC’s interest in the political
realm. Congruence or incongruence between the ideological/political
outlook of the IRGC and ideological position of the ruling elites has determined
type of the IRGC/politics relationship.
Keywords: Revolutionary Guards, Iran, Military, Politics, Khatami,
Ahmadinejad.
Özet
Türkiye’nin Batı bağlantısı uzun bir süre boyunca Ortadoğu ile ilişkilerinin şekillenmesinde değişik açılardan olumlu ya da olumsuz bir biçimde etkili olmuştur. Ancak bu süreç son birkaç yılda tersine dönmeye başlamıştır. Bu yeni dönemde Türkiye’nin Ortadoğu ile ilişkileri öyle bir değişim göstermiştir ki bazı durumlarda Batı ile ilişkilerini olumsuz etkilemeye başlamıştır. Bu durum dikkate alınarak bu makalede Türkiye’nin Ortadoğu politikası ve bu politikada Batının etkisi ele alınmıştır. Batı, Türkiye ve Ortadoğu arasındaki bu karşılıklı etkileşimin anlaşılabilmesi için Türkiye’nin Ortadoğu politikası tarihi, bu üçlü ilişkilerdeki hâkim olan tarza göre belirli dönemlere ayrılmıştır. Makalede Türkiye’nin Batılı ve laik kimliği ile Batı ittifakına sıkı sıkıya bağlı olması nedeniyle bölgede hakim olan dinamiklerle çatışma içine girdiği, dolayısıyla Türkiye’nin uzunca bir süre bölgeden uzaklaştığı sonucuna varılmıştır. Ancak, 1990’lı yıllardan sonra hem Türkiye hem de bölge köklü dönüşüm geçirmiştir. Bu dönüşüm Türkiye’nin Ortadoğu ülkeleri ile daha iyi ilişkiler kurmasını mümkün kılmıştır. Zamanla bölgenin jeopolitik yapısındaki değişiklikler nedeniyle de Türkiye’nin Ortadoğu politikasında Batı’nın etkisi giderek azalmıştır.
Anahtar Kelimeler: Türkiye, Ortadoğu, Batı, dış politika, güvenlik.
Turkish Foreign Policy towards the Middle East from the past to the present and the Impact of the West
Abstract
Turkey’s alliance relationship with the West has dominated its Middle East policy for a long time and adversely or affirmatively affected it. However, this interaction seems to be reversed in the last couple of years. In this new era Turkish engagement with the Middle East so intensified that it started to adversely affect Turkey’s relations with the West in some cases. Considering that point, this article has dealt with Turkey’s relations with Middle East and searched for the Western impact on that relationship. In order to comprehend that interaction between the West, Turkey, and the Middle East, it divided history of Turkey-Middle East relations into several period in accordance with the dominant form of interactions. It concluded that Turkey’s political identity as Western oriented and secular country and its strict alliance relationship with the West confronted with the regional dynamics in the Middle East, which culminated in Turkey’s distance relations with the region for a long time. However, after the 1990s, both Turkey and the regions has transformed profoundly that paved the way for better relations between Turkey and the Middle Eastern countries. In the course of time, because of the geopolitical shift in the region, the Western impact on this relationship gradually decreased.
Keywords: Turkey, Middle East, West, foreign policy, security.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has been dubbed the ‘kingmaker’ in recent studies of Iranian politics, precipitating heated debates surrounding the potential militarization of the Iranian regime and giving rise to paradoxical understandings of the IRGC; whether as a military institution entering politics, or a political institution with a military history.
Revolutionary Guards in Iranian Politics offers a way out of this paradox by showing that the IRGC is not a recently politicized institution, but has instead been highly politicized since its inception. It identifies the ways in which the IRGC relates to national political dynamics, examines the factors contributing to this relationship, and its implications on Iranian politics from the revolution up to the present day. The book examines the three decades following the revolution, uncovering the reasons behind the rise of the Revolutionary Guards and tracking the organization’s evolving relationship with politics. Establishing a theoretical framework from revolution and civil-military relations theories, this book provides new perspectives on the relationship between the IRGC and Iranian politics.
This book would be of interest to students and scholars of Middle East Studies and Iranian Studies, in particular Iranian Politics.
https://www.routledge.com/products/9781138853645
in the covered period, considering –relatively- smooth relations between Turkey and
Iran in the 1980s, and thermidorizing of Iran in the 1990s. Indeed, ideology has had
an important place in bilateral relations between Iran and Turkey for a long time.
Ideological factors constituted the immediate reasons for conflict between Turkey
and Iran in the 1990s as well. However, ideological differences between the two
countries did not cause any serious conflict in the 1980s. Then, the question arises,
why and how did ideological reasons led to severe frictions between Iran and Turkey
in the 1990s. In this regard, this thesis paid attention to two factors that have
profound effects on the foreign policies of Turkey and Iran; changing internal
conditions, and the changing geopolitics of Turkey and Iran after the dissolution of
the USSR and the Gulf War of 1991.
Keywords: Turkey, Iran, Thermidor, Ideological Confrontation, Geopolitical
Competition, Northern Iraq, Caucasus, Central Asia, Economy, Cooperation.
Spring on Iran’s policy toward the Middle East. It ar-gues that Iran could not have developed a consistent
policy towards the region, because implications of the
Arab Spring have varied in time in accordance with
subsequent, emerging developments. The initial op-timism of the Iranian leadership with regard to the
Arab upheavals, gave way to prudent caution and
rising anxiety as the expected opportunities brought
by upheavals were overwhelmed by new challenges
to Iran’s regional strategy. With a new approach to
foreign policy that highlighted moderation and con-structive interaction with international actors, new
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has striven to neu-tralize the Arab Spring’s adverse effects on the regional
policy of Iran.
of bilateral relations that paved the way for improvement of
economic and political ties between the two states. In
addition to the rationalization, a supportive regional context
helped them expand their relations. However, structural differences prevent the Turkish-Iranian rapprochement from turning into a strategic partnership. Moreover, restructuring of the regional context and rise of the specter of a conflictual relationship, which is still alive, threaten the future of Turkish-Iranian relations.
The success of this initiative requires the cooperation of the regional countries. In this context, this article argues that Turkey’s support for the initiative is critical because of its geo-strategic location, its record as a long-term ally of the West, its longtime experience with democracy and its emergence as a country successfully combining Islam and Western values. The importance of the subject is further underlined by the background of the ruling Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi (Justice and Development Party, AKP), which, though originating from an Islamist tradition, claims to be merging modernism, liberal democracy and tradition (Islam). The article, thus, analyzes Turkey’s position towards the GMEI with particular reference to the AK Party’s role.
revolved around. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, a power
vacuum arose over the Caucasus and Central Asia, where Turkey and Iran competition revived. Because of security considerations of the two countries and of their political and economic interests, Iran and Turkey adopted ambitious policies in the region that led to competition between them. Moreover, due to geographical proximity and geopolitical reasons, competition between Iran and Turkey intensified particularly over the Caucasus. This article aims at analyzing the Turco-Iranian geopolitical competition over the Caucasus and Central Asia throughout the 1990s. It argues that geopolitical competition between Turkey and Iran had a great impact on their bilateral relations in this period creating a conflictual atmosphere between the two countries. In this regard, this article reviews Turkey and Iran’s relations with the newly independent states of Central Asia and the Caucasus, and then analyses the Turco-Iranian geopolitical competition.
and how ideological reasons led to severe frictions in the 1990s despite the declining role of ideology in Iran. It argues that geopolitical developments following the demise of the USSR and the Gulf War led to the eruption of Turco-Iran competition over Iraq and over the Caucasus and the Central Asia which created a “conflictual” atmosphere in Turkey-Iran relations. Morover,
internal developments in these two countries have added fuel to the fire, and ideological differences between the two states have become a source of further conflict/friction between Iran and Turkey.
East, and at this stage places a priority to Iran. However, it should be noted that
instead of promoting current democratic trends within Iran, the U.S. favors
enforcement strategies which support the opposition to the regime. The author
argues that the U.S. should be working towards more gradual transformation within
the existing system instead of working with progressive elements of the regime
İran’da İslam Devrimi Muhafızları Ordusu’nun (İDMO) siyasette giderek artan etkinliğini çözümlemek amacıyla kaleme alınan bu makalede İran’ın bir devrim ülkesi ve İDMO’nun da devrimci bir ordu olduğu tespitinden hareketle öncelikle devrimci ordu-siyaset ilişkileri tartışılmıştır. Devrimci ordu-siyaset ilişkisinin tanımından doğan iki tarafı vardır; devrimci ordu ve yönetici elitler. Devrimci ordunun ideolojik bakışı ve ordu mensuplarının birlik algısı (corporateness) ile siyasi liderlerin ideolojik konumu ve siyasi güçleri devrimci ordunun siyaset ile ilişkisini belirlemektedir. Bu faktörlerin devrimin izleyen aşamalarında farklı birliktelikleri devrimci ordu-siyaset ilişkisinin tarzını belirlerken, bu aktörlerdeki değişiklikler devrimci ordu-siyaset ilişkisinin tarzının değişmesine yol açmaktadır. İran örneğinde de Devrim Muhafızlarının ideolojik duruşu ve Muhafızlar arasındaki birlik algısı ile siyasi liderlerin ideolojik duruşu ve siyasi iktidarın gücü, İDMO’nun siyasetle ilişkilerini belirlemiştir. Devrim Muhafızlarının birlik algısı giderek güçlenirken siyasal elitlerin parçalanması ve hizipler arası mücadelenin yoğunlaşması nedeniyle İDMO, İran siyasetinde etkili bir aktör olmaya başlamıştır. Siyasi iktidar ile İDMO arasındaki ideolojik uyum veya uyumsuzluk ise İDMO-siyaset ilişkisinin çatışmacı ya da işbirlikçi niteliğini belirlemiştir.
Anahtar Kelimeler: Devrimci Ordu, Asker-Siyaset İlişkisi, İran, Devrim Muhafızları,İran Siyaseti.
Abstract
Considering the fact that Iran is a revolutionary country and the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) is a revolutionary army, this article that is intended to analyze IRGC-politics relationship, primarily addresses revolutionary army-politics relationship. There are two natural parties to the revolutionary army-politics relationship; revolutionary army and ruling elite. In addition to ideological viewpoint of a revolutionary army and sense of corporateness among its members, ideological position of political leadership and its political power determine revolutionary army’s relationship to politics. Whereas various combinations of those factors in succeeding phases of the revolution shape the type of revolutionary army-politics relationship, any shift in any of those factors leads to change of that type. In the case of Iran, ideological viewpoint of the Revolutionary Guards and sense of corporateness among its ranks, ideological position of the ruling leadership and its political power determined the IRGC’s relationship to politics. Because of disintegration of the political elite and intensification of factional infighting among them while sense of corporateness consolidated among the Revolutionary Guards, the IRGC emerged as an influential actor in Iranian politics. Ideological congruence or incongruence between the political leadership and the IRGC has determined cooperative or confrontationist form of the IRGC-politics relationship.
بقلم : بايرام سينكايا
خلاصة :
ينطلق هذا البحث من مقولة ان ايران هي بلد الثورة وان حرّس الثورة فيها يشكلون
جيشا ثوريا. ولذا يقتضي لأجل تحليل العلاقة بين الحرس الثوري وبين السياسة في
ايران، ان نناقش اولا علاقة الجيش الثوري بالسياسة. ان هناك طرفين ناشئين من
تعريف علاقة الجيش الثوري بالسياسة، الجيش الثوري والاداريون من الطبقة الراقية.
ان النظرة الايديولوجية للجيش الثوري، ومفهوم الوحدة لدى منتسبي الجيش والوضع
الايديولوجي والقوة السياسية للقادة السياسيين، تحدد علاقة الجيش الثوري بالسياسة.
ان تواجد هذه العوامل على صعيد واحد في الفترات التي اعقبت الثورة، يحدد شكل
علاقة الجيش الثوري بالسياسة، في حين تعمل التغيرات التي تحصل في هذه العوامل
على فسح المجال لتغير طرز العلاقة بين الجيش الثوري وبين السياسة. وبالنسبة
للنموذج الايراني ايضا، فان الموقف الايديولوجي لحراس الثورة ونظرة التوحد بين
حراس الثورة والموقف الايديولوجي للقادة السياسيين وقوة السلطة السياسية، قد حددت
بمجموعها علاقات الحرس الثوري بالسياسة. وفي حين يزداد شعور التوحد لدى
الحرس الثوري شيئا فشيئا، نجد ان تفرق القادة السياسيين واشتداد الصراع بين المجاميع
المختلفة يعمل على ان يكون الحرس الثوري عاملا مؤثرا في السياسة الايرانية. اما
التواؤم او الصراع بين السلطة السياسية وبين الحرس الثوري، فانهما يحددان كون
العلاقة بين الحرس الثوري وبين السياسة متسما بالصراع او ذا نزعة تعاونية.
الكلمات الدالة : الجيش الثوري ، علاقة العسكر بالسياسة ، ايران ، الحرس الثوري
، السياسة الايرانية.
beri belirgin bir şekilde artmıştır. Devrim Muhafızları Hatemi’nin liderliğindeki
reformcu hükümet ile çatışma içerisinde iken onun yerini alan Ahmedinecad liderliğindeki
radikal hükümetle işbirliği içerisinde olmuştur. Bu makale, Devrim
Muhafızları’nın siyasi yükselişinde etkili olan faktörleri ve Devrim Muhafızları
– siyaset ilişkilerinin nasıl şekillendiğini incelemektedir. Makalede Muhafızların
İran siyasetindeki yükselişi Devrim Muhafızları Ordusu ekseninde ve devrim
sonrası ortaya çıkan dinamikler çerçevesinde tartışılmaktadır. 1990’lı yıllarda
kurumsallaşmasını tamamlayan ideolojik düzeyi yüksek devrimci ordunun, siyasi
elitler arasındaki bölünme ve şiddetli rekabet ortamında öneminin arttığı
görülmektedir. Böyle bir ortamda İran rejimine yönelik tehdit algılarının niteliğinin
değişmesi; askeri tehditlerin yerini kültürel saldırı, kadife devrim girişimi
gibi “yumuşak” tehditlere bırakması, Devrim Muhafızları’nın hızla siyasal alana
yönelmesine neden olmuştur. Devrim Muhafızları’nın ideolojik-siyasi bakışı
ile hükümette egemen elitlerin ideolojik duruşları arasındaki fark veya uyum
Devrim Muhafızları’nın hükümetle ilişkilerinin niteliğini belirlemiştir.
Anahtar Kelimeler: Devrim Muhafızları, İran, Asker, Siyaset, Hatemi,
Ahmedinecad.
Military-Politics Relationship in Iran and the Rise of the Revolutionary
Guards
Abstract
Influence of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) on Iranian politics has dramatically
increased since the mid-1990s. Whereas the IRGC was in conflict with
the reformist government under Khatami, it has closely cooperated with the
radical government of Ahmadinejad that replaced the reformist one. This article
analyzes influential factors on the political rise of the Guards, and the types of the IRGC – politics relationship. The rise of the Guards in Iranian
politics is studied within the framework of post-revolutionary dynamics and
characteristics of the IRGC. As an institutionalized revolutionary army with
high-level ideological commitment, the IRGC came into prominence in the
face of fragmentation of the elites and bitter rivalry among them through the
late 1990s. Meanwhile, altering threat perceptions of the Iranian regime; replacement
of the military threats by ‘soft’ threats as the cultural onslaught, and
the velvet revolution plot has rapidly increased the IRGC’s interest in the political
realm. Congruence or incongruence between the ideological/political
outlook of the IRGC and ideological position of the ruling elites has determined
type of the IRGC/politics relationship.
Keywords: Revolutionary Guards, Iran, Military, Politics, Khatami,
Ahmadinejad.
Özet
Türkiye’nin Batı bağlantısı uzun bir süre boyunca Ortadoğu ile ilişkilerinin şekillenmesinde değişik açılardan olumlu ya da olumsuz bir biçimde etkili olmuştur. Ancak bu süreç son birkaç yılda tersine dönmeye başlamıştır. Bu yeni dönemde Türkiye’nin Ortadoğu ile ilişkileri öyle bir değişim göstermiştir ki bazı durumlarda Batı ile ilişkilerini olumsuz etkilemeye başlamıştır. Bu durum dikkate alınarak bu makalede Türkiye’nin Ortadoğu politikası ve bu politikada Batının etkisi ele alınmıştır. Batı, Türkiye ve Ortadoğu arasındaki bu karşılıklı etkileşimin anlaşılabilmesi için Türkiye’nin Ortadoğu politikası tarihi, bu üçlü ilişkilerdeki hâkim olan tarza göre belirli dönemlere ayrılmıştır. Makalede Türkiye’nin Batılı ve laik kimliği ile Batı ittifakına sıkı sıkıya bağlı olması nedeniyle bölgede hakim olan dinamiklerle çatışma içine girdiği, dolayısıyla Türkiye’nin uzunca bir süre bölgeden uzaklaştığı sonucuna varılmıştır. Ancak, 1990’lı yıllardan sonra hem Türkiye hem de bölge köklü dönüşüm geçirmiştir. Bu dönüşüm Türkiye’nin Ortadoğu ülkeleri ile daha iyi ilişkiler kurmasını mümkün kılmıştır. Zamanla bölgenin jeopolitik yapısındaki değişiklikler nedeniyle de Türkiye’nin Ortadoğu politikasında Batı’nın etkisi giderek azalmıştır.
Anahtar Kelimeler: Türkiye, Ortadoğu, Batı, dış politika, güvenlik.
Turkish Foreign Policy towards the Middle East from the past to the present and the Impact of the West
Abstract
Turkey’s alliance relationship with the West has dominated its Middle East policy for a long time and adversely or affirmatively affected it. However, this interaction seems to be reversed in the last couple of years. In this new era Turkish engagement with the Middle East so intensified that it started to adversely affect Turkey’s relations with the West in some cases. Considering that point, this article has dealt with Turkey’s relations with Middle East and searched for the Western impact on that relationship. In order to comprehend that interaction between the West, Turkey, and the Middle East, it divided history of Turkey-Middle East relations into several period in accordance with the dominant form of interactions. It concluded that Turkey’s political identity as Western oriented and secular country and its strict alliance relationship with the West confronted with the regional dynamics in the Middle East, which culminated in Turkey’s distance relations with the region for a long time. However, after the 1990s, both Turkey and the regions has transformed profoundly that paved the way for better relations between Turkey and the Middle Eastern countries. In the course of time, because of the geopolitical shift in the region, the Western impact on this relationship gradually decreased.
Keywords: Turkey, Middle East, West, foreign policy, security.
Bu makalede özellikle 11 Eylül sonrası dönem içinde Türkiye’deki İslamcı entelektüellerin dış politika ve uluslararası ilişkiler perspektifleri incelenecektir. Öncelikle İslamcıların uluslararası sisteme bakışı ele alınacaktır. Bu çerçevede ABD ve Batı tartışmaları, İslamcıların ABD’yi nasıl algıladıkları, Batı’yı nasıl gördükleri, uluslararası sistemin temellerine nasıl baktıkları incelenecektir. Daha sonra İslamcıların gözünde İslam dünyasının ne durumda olduğu ve uluslararası sistem içinde İslam dünyasının ve İslamiyet’in yerini ve rolünü nasıl gördükleri hususu irdelenecektir. Bunun ardından, uluslararası sistem içinde İslam’ın yerinin somut yansımaları açısından Ortadoğu’daki kimi gelişmeler analiz edilecektir. Daha sonra ise uluslararası sistem içerisinde Türkiye ve Türk dış politikası hakkında İslamcıların görüşleri ortaya konmaya çalışılacaktır.
İran’ın Arap Baharı’na bakışı ve Ortadoğu politikası büyük ölçüde İslam Cumhuriyeti rejiminin dış politikasında ve güvenlik yaklaşımlarında hâkim olan strateji ve güvenlik kültürü çerçevesinde belirlenmiştir.6 Buna göre İslam Cumhuriyeti bölgede kendine has, özgün ve İslami yapısı olan bir siyasi rejim şeklinde tanımlanmakta, ancak bu İslami rejimin, bölgedeki ve küresel düzeydeki hasımları –ABD, İsrail ve bölgedeki müttefikleri– ile amansız bir mücadele içinde olduğu varsayılmaktadır. Dolayısıy- la Arap Baharı İran tarafında, İslam Cumhuriyeti ile düşmanları arasında süregiden mücadelenin ve çatışmanın yeni bir sahası olarak görülmüştür. Arap Baharı sonrasında İran’ın Ortadoğu politikasını anlamayı hedefleyen bu çalışmada öncelikle İran’ın Arap Baharı’na bakışı, ardından Arap Baharı sürecinden en yoğun şekilde etkilenen Tunus, Mısır, Libya, Bahreyn, Suriye ve Yemen ile ilişkileri incelenmektedir.
Türkiye ile İran’ın uzun yıllardan beri herhangi bir çatışmaya girmediği ve iki ülke arasındaki sınırın 450 yılı aşkın süredir değişmediği doğrudur, ancak bu gerçeklik iki ülkenin birbirlerine yönelik güvenlik kaygılarının olmadığı anlamına gelmemektedir. Bu yazının amacı İran devrimi sonrasında iki ülke arasındaki ilişkileri güvenlik perspektifinden analiz etmektir. Türkiye-İran ilişkilerini güvenlik perspektifinden ele alırken konuyu bir kac kısımda incelemek faydalı olacaktır; iki ülkenin doğrudan birbirlerine güvenlik açısından yaklaşımı; bölgesel, jeopolitik gelişmeler; bölgesel ittifak ilişkileri; uluslararası güvenlik kaygıları ve Türkiye-İran ilişkileri.
Yıllardır bölgede statükoya karşı çıkan ve bu nedenle “İslami uyanış” addettiği Arap baharını destekleyen İran yönetimi Suriye söz konusu olunca “statükonun” sürdürülmesinden yana tavır almıştır. İran’ın bu tavrı kimi çevrelerde mezhep ekseninde siyaset izlemesiyle izah edilmeye çalışılırken İran makamları tarafından İsrail’e ve ABD’ye karşı duran sözde direniş hattının müdafaası şeklinde savunulmuştur.
Farklı ideolojik boyutlarına karşın gerek mezhepçi yaklaşım, gerekse direniş hattı söylemi İran’ın bazı jeopolitik kaygılarına işaret etmektedir. Arap baharının tetiklediği değişim süreci bölgenin jeopolitik yapısında köklü değişikliklere yol açmış, dolayısıyla bölgesel ve küresel aktörlerin Ortadoğu politikalarını yeniden değerlendirmelerine neden olmuştur. Bu değişim süreci bölgedeki tek müttefiki olan Suriye’ye gelene kadar İran jeopolitik çıkarlarına hizmet ederken Suriye’deki muhtemel bir değişim İran’ın jeopolitik çıkarlarını tehdit etmektedir. Bu nedenle İran, Arap baharı Suriye’ye geldiğinde farklı bir tavır almıştır.
İran’ın bölgeye yönelik jeopolitik kaygıları ise ideolojik ve stratejik faktörler tarafından belirlenmektedir. İran’ın devrimci/ideolojik duruşu onun İsrail’i, ABD’yi ve bölgedeki Amerikan müttefiklerini “düşman” olarak görmesine neden olmaktadır. İran devriminden bu yana sözde düşmanları ile İran arasında ortaya çıkan gerginlikler ve çatışmalar, taraflar arasındaki karşılıklı husumet ilişkisine tarihsel bir boyut kazandırmıştır. Bu minval üzere son on yılda Ortadoğu’da İran ve müttefikleri ile Suudi Arabistan, Körfez ülkeleri, Mısır, Ürdün gibi İran karşıtları arasında kamplaşma ve soğuk savaş ortaya çıkmıştır. Böyle bir ortamda İran’ın savunma stratejisinde Suriye ve Hizbullah ile geliştirdiği ittifak ilişkisi önemli bir yer edinmiştir. İran’ın savunma stratejisinde kritik öneme haiz olan Suriye’de ortaya çıkan isyanın İran’ın dostu Esad yönetiminin devrilmesini talep etmesi ve bölgedeki karşıtlarının da isyancılara destek vermesi İran yönetiminin isyancılara karşı Esad’a destek vermesine neden olmuştur.
Turkish President Abdullah Gül paid an official visit to the neighboring Iran on the dates of February 13-16, 2011. A congested delegation including Ahmet Davutoğlu, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Cevdet Yılmaz, State Minister and Co-Chariman of Turkey-Iran Joint Economic Commission, a number of deputies, the governors of the border provinces, a number academicians and journalists and more than 100 businessmen accompanied him in this visit. The visit was quite important both in terms of showing the progress that has been made in Turkey-Iran relations and also in terms of indicating the “limits” of the relations between the two countries. In this article the progress that has been made in Turkey-Iran relations and the course of bilateral relations will be dealt with by considering the activities of Gül in Iran throughout the visit.
When the Bashar Asad administration in Syria faced with growing international pressure due to violent crackdown of anti-government protesters, solely Iran has stood behind him. Iran’s support to the Asad administration has been considered to be in contrast with its apparent sympathy with the popular unrests in Arab countries, which were branded by the Iranian leadership as ‘Islamic awakening.’ This study aimed at analyzing reasons laying behind Iran’s support to Asad. In order to comprehend the Iranian attitude towards the unrest in Syria, it analyzed foundations of Iran-Syria relations, which is dubbed as ‘alliance of convenience.’ It maintains that in addition to Iran’s uneasiness with the possibility of losing its only strategic partner in the
Middle East in case of overthrow of the Asad administration, the Iranian leadership’s assessment of the Syrian unrest as part of the continuing Western plots aimed at undermining Iran-Syria friendship determined Iran’s stance. The article concludes with projections on Syria-Iran relations in the post-turmoil era in Syria.
26-28, 2009. Because it was paid at a critical juncture related to recent developments in
Iran and so-called “Middle Easternization” of Turkish foreign policy, Erdoğan’s visit drew
much attention in the circles of international politics. Especially Erdoğan’s declaration
of his support for Iran’s “peaceful” nuclear program created an anxiety in the “Western”
pundits for the course of relations between Turkey and Iran. This article argues that despite
improvement in bilateral relations there are several factors limiting Turkey – Iran
relations, and neither of the parties intended to overcome those issues like the adverse
affect of their different relations with the West, ideological/political differences regarding
the regional developments and the regional rivalry. In result, Erdoğan’s visit was focused
on bilateral economic relations, rather than establishing “high level strategic” cooperation
between the two countries.
ا خت فات في وجهات النظر، وا خاوف الجيوبوليتيكية.
يهدف هذا ا قال إلى لفت ا نتباه إلى منعطفين مؤثرين، ومتضادين ظهرا في وق ٍت واحد في الع قات ا يرانية – التركية، إذ يستند أحدهما إلى الصراع وا نافسة، بينما يستندً ا خر ًإلى التعاون والحوار. وقد استعمل مفهوم «التوافق» في هذه الدراسة لتوضيح الع قات ا تغيرة تغيرا سريعا بين أنقرة وطهران تجاه
ظهورهذينا نعطفينا تضادينفيوق ٍتمتزامن.
الكلمات ا فتاحية: الع قات التركية – ا يرانية، ا تفاق النووي، الشرق ا وسط، أردوغان، روحاني، التوافق، ا زمة السورية، الطائفية.