In this paper, we make an attempt to assess empirically the underlying mechanics of macroeconomic... more In this paper, we make an attempt to assess empirically the underlying mechanics of macroeconomic instability in LDCs, especially in reaction to an external shock. Several dimensions have been presented by the literature as key factors of instability: macroeconomic policies, institutions, fiscal adjustment, financial development, trade openness, the size of the domestic market, fractionalization social conflict and geography. We test the relative importance of each of these factors in the explanation of the GDP growth instability for a sample of eighty developing economies by pooling three episodes of crisis: a local crisis located in developed economies (EMS crisis of 1992), a local crisis originated in emerging economies (Asian crisis of 1996) and a global crisis (2008). Our framework is fairly close from Malik and Temple (2009), Rodrik, Subramanian and Trebbi (2003) (hereafter RST) or even Rodrik (1999) as we attempt to disentangle the respective impacts of geography, institutions and trade openness on growth volatility, while controlling for the effects of social conflicts and inequalities on the capacity to dampen volatility. In connection to Acemoglu and Zilibotti (1997) and Koren and Tenreyro (2007), we also show that structural outcomes such as the extent of diversification are also of a considerable importance. Finally, we are also close from Acemoglu, Johnson, Robinson and Thaicharoen (2003) (hereafter AJRT) as we try to account for the possible endogeneity between institutions and government policies such as macroeconomic policies that are important in the turmoil of an external shock
- La question du régime de change se pose dans les pays d’Europe centrale et orientale (PECO) dan... more - La question du régime de change se pose dans les pays d’Europe centrale et orientale (PECO) dans la perspective de l’adhésion à l’Union européenne. De nombreux auteurs, en se basant sur la théorie des zones monétaires optimales, préconisent une adhésion rapide à l’UEM. Nous montrons cependant que si une politique de change fixe a pu être utile en début de transition pour briser les anticipations inflationnistes, une telle politique n’apparaît pas tenable, ni souhaitable, dans une perspective de croissance des PECO. Le besoin de rattrapage économique et la contrainte extérieure (réelle et financière) nécessitent en effet la pleine utilisation des instruments de la politique économique et une certaine souplesse du taux de change.
This article is a contribution to the analysis of f
inancial development diversity in developing ... more This article is a contribution to the analysis of f inancial development diversity in developing countries and lies within model of capitalism’s fra mework. By taking into account the degree of control of banking system and securities markets , our empirical analysis produces a three- group typology identifying an embryonic financial s ystem, an intermediate financial system bank oriented and a financial system in maturity. M oreover, this typology cannot support the hypothesis of a model specific to emerging coun tries but a model for LDC countries and a model for developed countries
Human capital measures (schooling) are poor
ly significant in explaining growth for
developing c... more Human capital measures (schooling) are poor ly significant in explaining growth for developing countries. An explanation is t hat increases in human capital have no significant effect on growth if this human c apital is misallocated and underemployed. In a simple two-sector model of a small open economy, we show that the effect of education on growth is more significant if the country has ent ered into the structural change that raises the demand for skilled labour. Moreover, we give a special attention to the role of entrepreneurs in the increase in the demand for skills in the modern sector and propose to measure it through the diversification of exports. We then derive an econometric specification from a simple two-sector mode l of growth with structural change and different levels of skills. From a sample of emerging economies, we provide econometric evidence that the reduction in the traditional share of GDP and a higher diversification of export both have a positive influence on growth rates. We also show that if the drop in traditional activities is to matter for growth, it is not through the skill reallocation from traditional to modern activities whereas ex port diversification is a factor of higher growth, directly but also through the enhancement of the effect of human capital on the increase of GDP. Then, the point could be that if reallocation of skills is to matter, it is more probably through shifts am ong the industrial sector, from the older to the newer activities than across sectors, from the traditional to the modern.
L’étude menée s’applique à vérifier l’hypothèse d’un effet « accords de
Barcelone » sur... more L’étude menée s’applique à vérifier l’hypothèse d’un effet « accords de Barcelone » sur la convergence de l’économie marocaine. Celle-ci sera abordée selon une trois optiques. Celle de la convergence de l’économie marocaine vers son propre état stationnaire. Celle de la convergence intra-zone vis-à-vis des autres pays de l’Accord (essentiellement les pays de l’UMA). Pour finir, vis-à-vis des pays de l’UE, et notamment des pays périphériques du Sud de l’Europe, dans une logique de convergence inter-zone. Cette étude est menée en utilisant les indicateurs de β-convergence, et de σ-convergence.
This article investigates the geography of finance through a study of the behavior of large equit... more This article investigates the geography of finance through a study of the behavior of large equity investors who are key actors in capitalism. The main argument is based on their expectations in “finance-driven” capitalism: large equity investors require high returns on invested capital in a shorter time and are said to be impatient. The article focuses on their portfolio turnover in relation to geographic factors and their attachment to a specific model of capitalism. The U.S. “market-based” model is presented as a benchmark, since U.S. investors trade securities most frequently relative to other international equity investors. Our empirical findings on the proximity of investors in various models of capitalism with U.S. “impatient” investors contribute to a growing literature on the economic importance of geography in understanding global finance.
In this paper, we make an attempt to assess empirically the underlying mechanics of macroeconomic... more In this paper, we make an attempt to assess empirically the underlying mechanics of macroeconomic instability in LDCs, especially in reaction to an external shock. Several dimensions have been presented by the literature as key factors of instability: macroeconomic policies, institutions, fiscal adjustment, financial development, trade openness, the size of the domestic market, fractionalization social conflict and geography. We test the relative importance of each of these factors in the explanation of the GDP growth instability for a sample of eighty developing economies by pooling three episodes of crisis: a local crisis located in developed economies (EMS crisis of 1992), a local crisis originated in emerging economies (Asian crisis of 1996) and a global crisis (2008). Our framework is fairly close from Malik and Temple (2009), Rodrik, Subramanian and Trebbi (2003) (hereafter RST) or even Rodrik (1999) as we attempt to disentangle the respective impacts of geography, institutions and trade openness on growth volatility, while controlling for the effects of social conflicts and inequalities on the capacity to dampen volatility. In connection to Acemoglu and Zilibotti (1997) and Koren and Tenreyro (2007), we also show that structural outcomes such as the extent of diversification are also of a considerable importance. Finally, we are also close from Acemoglu, Johnson, Robinson and Thaicharoen (2003) (hereafter AJRT) as we try to account for the possible endogeneity between institutions and government policies such as macroeconomic policies that are important in the turmoil of an external shock
- La question du régime de change se pose dans les pays d’Europe centrale et orientale (PECO) dan... more - La question du régime de change se pose dans les pays d’Europe centrale et orientale (PECO) dans la perspective de l’adhésion à l’Union européenne. De nombreux auteurs, en se basant sur la théorie des zones monétaires optimales, préconisent une adhésion rapide à l’UEM. Nous montrons cependant que si une politique de change fixe a pu être utile en début de transition pour briser les anticipations inflationnistes, une telle politique n’apparaît pas tenable, ni souhaitable, dans une perspective de croissance des PECO. Le besoin de rattrapage économique et la contrainte extérieure (réelle et financière) nécessitent en effet la pleine utilisation des instruments de la politique économique et une certaine souplesse du taux de change.
This article is a contribution to the analysis of f
inancial development diversity in developing ... more This article is a contribution to the analysis of f inancial development diversity in developing countries and lies within model of capitalism’s fra mework. By taking into account the degree of control of banking system and securities markets , our empirical analysis produces a three- group typology identifying an embryonic financial s ystem, an intermediate financial system bank oriented and a financial system in maturity. M oreover, this typology cannot support the hypothesis of a model specific to emerging coun tries but a model for LDC countries and a model for developed countries
Human capital measures (schooling) are poor
ly significant in explaining growth for
developing c... more Human capital measures (schooling) are poor ly significant in explaining growth for developing countries. An explanation is t hat increases in human capital have no significant effect on growth if this human c apital is misallocated and underemployed. In a simple two-sector model of a small open economy, we show that the effect of education on growth is more significant if the country has ent ered into the structural change that raises the demand for skilled labour. Moreover, we give a special attention to the role of entrepreneurs in the increase in the demand for skills in the modern sector and propose to measure it through the diversification of exports. We then derive an econometric specification from a simple two-sector mode l of growth with structural change and different levels of skills. From a sample of emerging economies, we provide econometric evidence that the reduction in the traditional share of GDP and a higher diversification of export both have a positive influence on growth rates. We also show that if the drop in traditional activities is to matter for growth, it is not through the skill reallocation from traditional to modern activities whereas ex port diversification is a factor of higher growth, directly but also through the enhancement of the effect of human capital on the increase of GDP. Then, the point could be that if reallocation of skills is to matter, it is more probably through shifts am ong the industrial sector, from the older to the newer activities than across sectors, from the traditional to the modern.
L’étude menée s’applique à vérifier l’hypothèse d’un effet « accords de
Barcelone » sur... more L’étude menée s’applique à vérifier l’hypothèse d’un effet « accords de Barcelone » sur la convergence de l’économie marocaine. Celle-ci sera abordée selon une trois optiques. Celle de la convergence de l’économie marocaine vers son propre état stationnaire. Celle de la convergence intra-zone vis-à-vis des autres pays de l’Accord (essentiellement les pays de l’UMA). Pour finir, vis-à-vis des pays de l’UE, et notamment des pays périphériques du Sud de l’Europe, dans une logique de convergence inter-zone. Cette étude est menée en utilisant les indicateurs de β-convergence, et de σ-convergence.
This article investigates the geography of finance through a study of the behavior of large equit... more This article investigates the geography of finance through a study of the behavior of large equity investors who are key actors in capitalism. The main argument is based on their expectations in “finance-driven” capitalism: large equity investors require high returns on invested capital in a shorter time and are said to be impatient. The article focuses on their portfolio turnover in relation to geographic factors and their attachment to a specific model of capitalism. The U.S. “market-based” model is presented as a benchmark, since U.S. investors trade securities most frequently relative to other international equity investors. Our empirical findings on the proximity of investors in various models of capitalism with U.S. “impatient” investors contribute to a growing literature on the economic importance of geography in understanding global finance.
e : L'objectif de l'article est de s'interroger sur les critères et indicateurs qui sont mobilisé... more e : L'objectif de l'article est de s'interroger sur les critères et indicateurs qui sont mobilisés par les agences de notation pour catégoriser les pays émergents. Il est proposé un classement des facteurs en deux catégories : les critères de type induit (de nature endogène au processus de développement) et les critères de type induisant (de nature exogène). Au regard de cette typologie de critère nous montrons qu'il existe des régularités dans les stratégies des pays émergents. Abstract: The goal of the article is to wonder about the criteria and the indicators which are mobilized by rating agencies to categorize emerging countries. A classification of these criteria in two categories is proposed: on the one hand, the criteria able to induce emerging process (an exogenous nature) and, on the other hand, the criteria which are induced (an endogenous nature in the process). According to this typology we show that exist regularities in the strategies of emerging countries. Mots clés : Pays émergents, critères d'émergence, changement structurel, modèle de développement, stratégies de pays émergents Une analyse économique des régularités qui fondent les modèles d'émergence
Un guide pour utiliser le logiciel STATA. On y retrouve tous les éléments nécessaire à une manip... more Un guide pour utiliser le logiciel STATA. On y retrouve tous les éléments nécessaire à une manipulation de base
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Papers by Dalila Chenaf- Nicet
inancial development diversity in developing
countries and lies within model of capitalism’s fra
mework. By taking into account the degree
of control of banking system and securities markets
, our empirical analysis produces a three-
group typology identifying an embryonic financial s
ystem, an intermediate financial system
bank oriented and a financial system in maturity. M
oreover, this typology cannot support
the hypothesis of a model specific to emerging coun
tries but a model for LDC countries and a
model for developed countries
ly significant in explaining growth for
developing countries. An explanation is t
hat increases in human capital have no
significant effect on growth if this human c
apital is misallocated and underemployed. In a
simple two-sector model of a small open economy,
we show that the effect of education on
growth is more significant if the country has ent
ered into the structural change that raises
the demand for skilled labour. Moreover, we give a special attention to the role of
entrepreneurs in the increase in the demand
for skills in the modern sector and propose
to measure it through the diversification
of exports. We then derive an econometric
specification from a simple two-sector mode
l of growth with structural change and
different levels of skills. From a sample of
emerging economies, we provide econometric
evidence that the reduction in the traditional share of GDP and a higher diversification
of export both have a positive influence on growth rates. We also show that if the drop in
traditional activities is to matter for growth,
it is not through the skill reallocation from
traditional to modern activities whereas ex
port diversification is a factor of higher
growth, directly but also through the enhancement of the effect of human capital on the
increase of GDP. Then, the point could be that
if reallocation of skills is to matter, it is
more probably through shifts am
ong the industrial sector, from the older to the newer
activities than across sectors, from
the traditional to the modern.
Barcelone » sur la convergence de l’économie marocaine. Celle-ci sera abordée
selon une trois optiques. Celle de la convergence de l’économie marocaine vers
son propre état stationnaire. Celle de la convergence intra-zone vis-à-vis des
autres pays de l’Accord (essentiellement les pays de l’UMA). Pour finir, vis-à-vis
des pays de l’UE, et notamment des pays périphériques du Sud de l’Europe, dans
une logique de convergence inter-zone. Cette étude est menée en utilisant les
indicateurs de β-convergence, et de σ-convergence.
inancial development diversity in developing
countries and lies within model of capitalism’s fra
mework. By taking into account the degree
of control of banking system and securities markets
, our empirical analysis produces a three-
group typology identifying an embryonic financial s
ystem, an intermediate financial system
bank oriented and a financial system in maturity. M
oreover, this typology cannot support
the hypothesis of a model specific to emerging coun
tries but a model for LDC countries and a
model for developed countries
ly significant in explaining growth for
developing countries. An explanation is t
hat increases in human capital have no
significant effect on growth if this human c
apital is misallocated and underemployed. In a
simple two-sector model of a small open economy,
we show that the effect of education on
growth is more significant if the country has ent
ered into the structural change that raises
the demand for skilled labour. Moreover, we give a special attention to the role of
entrepreneurs in the increase in the demand
for skills in the modern sector and propose
to measure it through the diversification
of exports. We then derive an econometric
specification from a simple two-sector mode
l of growth with structural change and
different levels of skills. From a sample of
emerging economies, we provide econometric
evidence that the reduction in the traditional share of GDP and a higher diversification
of export both have a positive influence on growth rates. We also show that if the drop in
traditional activities is to matter for growth,
it is not through the skill reallocation from
traditional to modern activities whereas ex
port diversification is a factor of higher
growth, directly but also through the enhancement of the effect of human capital on the
increase of GDP. Then, the point could be that
if reallocation of skills is to matter, it is
more probably through shifts am
ong the industrial sector, from the older to the newer
activities than across sectors, from
the traditional to the modern.
Barcelone » sur la convergence de l’économie marocaine. Celle-ci sera abordée
selon une trois optiques. Celle de la convergence de l’économie marocaine vers
son propre état stationnaire. Celle de la convergence intra-zone vis-à-vis des
autres pays de l’Accord (essentiellement les pays de l’UMA). Pour finir, vis-à-vis
des pays de l’UE, et notamment des pays périphériques du Sud de l’Europe, dans
une logique de convergence inter-zone. Cette étude est menée en utilisant les
indicateurs de β-convergence, et de σ-convergence.