I am an assistant professor of Political Science at Bogazici University. My research interests include regimes, social movements, and financial and sovereign debt crises. I specialize in network analysis, agent-based modeling, and multi-method research. I am particularly interested in complexity theory and adaptations of dynamical systems theory in social sciences. Supervisors: Bruce Carruthers, Julia Lynch, Rudra Sil, Bruce Desmarais, and Yuhua Wang
This study considers recurrent authoritarian revivals. Unlike conventional studies that focus on ... more This study considers recurrent authoritarian revivals. Unlike conventional studies that focus on authoritarian survival and durability, I study the periodicity of regime changes. Using the cases of Ottoman (18761918) and Republican (1923-1960) (2002-2017) Turkey, I show that recurrent authoritarian revivals are more likely in societies where anti-status quo groups assume power upon overthrowing an oppressive regime, begin reforming old institutions, and face dissent. Such governments are more prone to turning authoritarian because they feel menaced by dissent and choose repression over compromise. Repression initially targets old elites but extends to other dissenters as governments do not tolerate alternative reform projects. Cooperation does not arise because uncertainty, distrust, and past repression perpetuate the fear of survival. This article contributes to the regimes and institutionalism literatures by systematically studying an undertheorized issue and offering a mechanisti...
How do right-wing populist leaders address a public health crisis? This article addresses the evo... more How do right-wing populist leaders address a public health crisis? This article addresses the evolution of right-wing populist leaders' communication tone and style during the COVID-19 pandemic. By analysing the Twitter accounts of Boris Johnson, Donald Trump and Narendra Modi, we explore how right-wing populist leaders control the portrayal of a health crisis from above, shift blame and consolidate support. We argue that while all three leaders initially downplay the pandemic, once they acknowledge the severity of the crisis, they vary in the extent to which they give importance to the coronavirus and shift blame. While Trump uses Twitter to praise himself and his policies, and to polarize the electorate, Modi and Johnson employ Twitter to inform the public and deliver solidarity messages. The frequency of Twitter use and the tone of the language leaders employ depend on the domestic context of that country. Our findings contribute to the scholarship on populist communication.
How do right-wing populist leaders address a public health crisis? This article addresses the evo... more How do right-wing populist leaders address a public health crisis? This article addresses the evolution of right-wing populist leaders' communication tone and style during the COVID-19 pandemic. By analysing the Twitter accounts of Boris Johnson, Donald Trump and Narendra Modi, we explore how right-wing populist leaders control the portrayal of a health crisis from above, shift blame and consolidate support. We argue that while all three leaders initially downplay the pandemic, once they acknowledge the severity of the crisis, they vary in the extent to which they give importance to the coronavirus and shift blame. While Trump uses Twitter to praise himself and his policies, and to polarize the electorate, Modi and Johnson employ Twitter to inform the public and deliver solidarity messages. The frequency of Twitter use and the tone of the language leaders employ depend on the domestic context of that country. Our findings contribute to the scholarship on populist communication.
Opportunities and Challenges for Computational Social Science Methods, 2022
This chapter discusses the challenges and opportunities of incorporating computational social sci... more This chapter discusses the challenges and opportunities of incorporating computational social science (CSS) into political science. Using an original dataset of quantitative methods courses offered at the top-40 schools, this study shows that CSS courses are currently underrepresented, but their number is likely to augment because of the competition among schools. Yet, this trend is likely to stay confined to North American and Western European schools. Also, collaboration in CSS requires reconciling research priorities in engineering and physics (prediction) and in political science (explanation). Regarding research, big data does not mitigate concerns about causation and representativeness. But simulations allow studying rare phenomena and phenomena for which experiments are not appropriate. By running thousands of experiments at various combinations of explanatory variables, simulations explore counterfactuals, assess the explanatory power of competing theories, and make forecasts.
The financial crisis of 2008 has devastated global economy. The Eurozone countries received the i... more The financial crisis of 2008 has devastated global economy. The Eurozone countries received the immediate impacts of the crisis on their banking sector. These economies suffered from liquidity shortage, recession and unemployment. The Eurozone members have managed to take the crisis under control owing to euro, the European Central Bank and state aids. The emerging economies of Central and Eastern Europe received the impacts later; but the implications have been much harder. The crisis has generated serious balance of payment problems in the whole region, but particularly in the countries that were the most dependent on foreign capital, such as Hungary, Latvia and Romania. Economic downturn has caused social unrest, political instability and government collapses in these countries. In the aftermath of the crisis, the member states had made the commitment of withstanding the crisis with a common action plan and in solidarity. This thesis is an attempt to analyse the extent to which the EU has kept to this promise by the first quarter of 2009. It will be argued that the EU’s solidarity proved to be vulnerable; the major member states attempted to break solidarity when their national and sectoral interests fell at stake. The crisis has made more apparent the conflict of interests between member states and the Commission as well as the divide between Eurozone and non-Eurozone countries.
This paper examines collective action (CA) capacity and shape of coalitions. By applying temporal... more This paper examines collective action (CA) capacity and shape of coalitions. By applying temporal exponential random graph models on original datasets of Ottoman and French contenders, it finds that coalitions form both for strategic and ideological reasons; but strategically unified coalitions are more likely to take CA. Also, coalition shape depends on the type of disagreements among partners. Ideological polarization induces side taking; actors build ideologically oriented disconnected blocs. Absent ideological disagreements, strategically like-minded actors form cliques. Otherwise, umbrella coalitions emerge. This study o↵ers a novel theory to explain the kind of coalitions that are more likely to take CA.
We investigate the efficacy of three social distancing controls on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 using... more We investigate the efficacy of three social distancing controls on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 using an agent based SIR model on a small world network structure: 1) Global social distancing with a fixed probability of adherence. 2) Individually initiated social isolation when a threshold number of contacts are infected. 3) Use of personal protective equipment (PPE) to reduce viral shedding and resultant infectivity. The primary driver of total number of infections is the viral shedding rate, with probability of social distancing being the next critical factor. These results suggest that higher compliance with PPE usage and personal hygiene has the potential to decrease the number of infections and shorten epidemic duration. Individually initiated social isolation was effective when initiated in response to a single infected contact. The combination of social isolation and PPE resulted in very low levels of infection. Our model suggests that widespread application of social distancing t...
In nearly all authoritarian regimes, democratization finds significant societal support and a num... more In nearly all authoritarian regimes, democratization finds significant societal support and a number of organized opposition groups struggle for regime change. In some cases—such as in Iran in 1979— opposition groups are able to cooperate with one another and bring down authoritarianism. In others—such as the Assad regime in Syria—groups are not able to cooperate, and the ruler remains in place. Studies that apply cooperation theory on regimes predict that shared grievances about the current government and common interests in changing the existing regime foster cooperation among challengers. Yet, evidence suggests the contrary. This study examines the conditions under which diverse challengers, despite persistent divergence in their ideological preferences, are able to achieve a level of long-term cooperation that can transform the status quo. It uses the case studies of the Ottoman transition to constitutional monarchy (1876–1908) and the French transition to constitutional monarch...
We investigate phase transitions associated with three control methods for epidemics on small wor... more We investigate phase transitions associated with three control methods for epidemics on small world networks. Motivated by the behavior of SARS-CoV-2, we construct a theoretical SIR model of a virus that exhibits presymptomatic, asymptomatic, and symptomatic stages in two possible pathways. Using agent-based simulations on small world networks, we observe phase transitions for epidemic spread related to: 1) Global social distancing with a fixed probability of adherence. 2) Individually initiated social isolation when a threshold number of contacts are infected. 3) Viral shedding rate. The primary driver of total number of infections is the viral shedding rate, with probability of social distancing being the next critical factor. Individually initiated social isolation was effective when initiated in response to a single infected contact. For each of these control measures, the total number of infections exhibits a sharp phase transition as the strength of the measure is varied.
This study considers recurrent authoritarian revivals. Unlike conventional studies that focus on ... more This study considers recurrent authoritarian revivals. Unlike conventional studies that focus on authoritarian survival and durability, I study the periodicity of regime changes. Using the cases of Ottoman (18761918) and Republican (1923-1960) (2002-2017) Turkey, I show that recurrent authoritarian revivals are more likely in societies where anti-status quo groups assume power upon overthrowing an oppressive regime, begin reforming old institutions, and face dissent. Such governments are more prone to turning authoritarian because they feel menaced by dissent and choose repression over compromise. Repression initially targets old elites but extends to other dissenters as governments do not tolerate alternative reform projects. Cooperation does not arise because uncertainty, distrust, and past repression perpetuate the fear of survival. This article contributes to the regimes and institutionalism literatures by systematically studying an undertheorized issue and offering a mechanisti...
How do right-wing populist leaders address a public health crisis? This article addresses the evo... more How do right-wing populist leaders address a public health crisis? This article addresses the evolution of right-wing populist leaders' communication tone and style during the COVID-19 pandemic. By analysing the Twitter accounts of Boris Johnson, Donald Trump and Narendra Modi, we explore how right-wing populist leaders control the portrayal of a health crisis from above, shift blame and consolidate support. We argue that while all three leaders initially downplay the pandemic, once they acknowledge the severity of the crisis, they vary in the extent to which they give importance to the coronavirus and shift blame. While Trump uses Twitter to praise himself and his policies, and to polarize the electorate, Modi and Johnson employ Twitter to inform the public and deliver solidarity messages. The frequency of Twitter use and the tone of the language leaders employ depend on the domestic context of that country. Our findings contribute to the scholarship on populist communication.
How do right-wing populist leaders address a public health crisis? This article addresses the evo... more How do right-wing populist leaders address a public health crisis? This article addresses the evolution of right-wing populist leaders' communication tone and style during the COVID-19 pandemic. By analysing the Twitter accounts of Boris Johnson, Donald Trump and Narendra Modi, we explore how right-wing populist leaders control the portrayal of a health crisis from above, shift blame and consolidate support. We argue that while all three leaders initially downplay the pandemic, once they acknowledge the severity of the crisis, they vary in the extent to which they give importance to the coronavirus and shift blame. While Trump uses Twitter to praise himself and his policies, and to polarize the electorate, Modi and Johnson employ Twitter to inform the public and deliver solidarity messages. The frequency of Twitter use and the tone of the language leaders employ depend on the domestic context of that country. Our findings contribute to the scholarship on populist communication.
Opportunities and Challenges for Computational Social Science Methods, 2022
This chapter discusses the challenges and opportunities of incorporating computational social sci... more This chapter discusses the challenges and opportunities of incorporating computational social science (CSS) into political science. Using an original dataset of quantitative methods courses offered at the top-40 schools, this study shows that CSS courses are currently underrepresented, but their number is likely to augment because of the competition among schools. Yet, this trend is likely to stay confined to North American and Western European schools. Also, collaboration in CSS requires reconciling research priorities in engineering and physics (prediction) and in political science (explanation). Regarding research, big data does not mitigate concerns about causation and representativeness. But simulations allow studying rare phenomena and phenomena for which experiments are not appropriate. By running thousands of experiments at various combinations of explanatory variables, simulations explore counterfactuals, assess the explanatory power of competing theories, and make forecasts.
The financial crisis of 2008 has devastated global economy. The Eurozone countries received the i... more The financial crisis of 2008 has devastated global economy. The Eurozone countries received the immediate impacts of the crisis on their banking sector. These economies suffered from liquidity shortage, recession and unemployment. The Eurozone members have managed to take the crisis under control owing to euro, the European Central Bank and state aids. The emerging economies of Central and Eastern Europe received the impacts later; but the implications have been much harder. The crisis has generated serious balance of payment problems in the whole region, but particularly in the countries that were the most dependent on foreign capital, such as Hungary, Latvia and Romania. Economic downturn has caused social unrest, political instability and government collapses in these countries. In the aftermath of the crisis, the member states had made the commitment of withstanding the crisis with a common action plan and in solidarity. This thesis is an attempt to analyse the extent to which the EU has kept to this promise by the first quarter of 2009. It will be argued that the EU’s solidarity proved to be vulnerable; the major member states attempted to break solidarity when their national and sectoral interests fell at stake. The crisis has made more apparent the conflict of interests between member states and the Commission as well as the divide between Eurozone and non-Eurozone countries.
This paper examines collective action (CA) capacity and shape of coalitions. By applying temporal... more This paper examines collective action (CA) capacity and shape of coalitions. By applying temporal exponential random graph models on original datasets of Ottoman and French contenders, it finds that coalitions form both for strategic and ideological reasons; but strategically unified coalitions are more likely to take CA. Also, coalition shape depends on the type of disagreements among partners. Ideological polarization induces side taking; actors build ideologically oriented disconnected blocs. Absent ideological disagreements, strategically like-minded actors form cliques. Otherwise, umbrella coalitions emerge. This study o↵ers a novel theory to explain the kind of coalitions that are more likely to take CA.
We investigate the efficacy of three social distancing controls on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 using... more We investigate the efficacy of three social distancing controls on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 using an agent based SIR model on a small world network structure: 1) Global social distancing with a fixed probability of adherence. 2) Individually initiated social isolation when a threshold number of contacts are infected. 3) Use of personal protective equipment (PPE) to reduce viral shedding and resultant infectivity. The primary driver of total number of infections is the viral shedding rate, with probability of social distancing being the next critical factor. These results suggest that higher compliance with PPE usage and personal hygiene has the potential to decrease the number of infections and shorten epidemic duration. Individually initiated social isolation was effective when initiated in response to a single infected contact. The combination of social isolation and PPE resulted in very low levels of infection. Our model suggests that widespread application of social distancing t...
In nearly all authoritarian regimes, democratization finds significant societal support and a num... more In nearly all authoritarian regimes, democratization finds significant societal support and a number of organized opposition groups struggle for regime change. In some cases—such as in Iran in 1979— opposition groups are able to cooperate with one another and bring down authoritarianism. In others—such as the Assad regime in Syria—groups are not able to cooperate, and the ruler remains in place. Studies that apply cooperation theory on regimes predict that shared grievances about the current government and common interests in changing the existing regime foster cooperation among challengers. Yet, evidence suggests the contrary. This study examines the conditions under which diverse challengers, despite persistent divergence in their ideological preferences, are able to achieve a level of long-term cooperation that can transform the status quo. It uses the case studies of the Ottoman transition to constitutional monarchy (1876–1908) and the French transition to constitutional monarch...
We investigate phase transitions associated with three control methods for epidemics on small wor... more We investigate phase transitions associated with three control methods for epidemics on small world networks. Motivated by the behavior of SARS-CoV-2, we construct a theoretical SIR model of a virus that exhibits presymptomatic, asymptomatic, and symptomatic stages in two possible pathways. Using agent-based simulations on small world networks, we observe phase transitions for epidemic spread related to: 1) Global social distancing with a fixed probability of adherence. 2) Individually initiated social isolation when a threshold number of contacts are infected. 3) Viral shedding rate. The primary driver of total number of infections is the viral shedding rate, with probability of social distancing being the next critical factor. Individually initiated social isolation was effective when initiated in response to a single infected contact. For each of these control measures, the total number of infections exhibits a sharp phase transition as the strength of the measure is varied.
Advances in Human and Social Aspects of Technology, 2022
This chapter discusses the challenges and opportunities of incorporating computational social sci... more This chapter discusses the challenges and opportunities of incorporating computational social science (CSS) into political science. Using an original dataset of quantitative methods courses offered at the top-40 schools, this study shows that CSS courses are currently underrepresented, but their number is likely to augment because of the competition among schools. Yet, this trend is likely to stay confined to North American and Western European schools. Also, collaboration in CSS requires reconciling research priorities in engineering and physics (prediction) and in political science (explanation). Regarding research, big data does not mitigate concerns about causation and representativeness. But simulations allow studying rare phenomena and phenomena for which experiments are not appropriate. By running thousands of experiments at various combinations of explanatory variables, simulations explore counterfactuals, assess the explanatory power of competing theories, and make forecasts.
This chapter offers a mechanism-based explanation of how single-cause oriented protest events are... more This chapter offers a mechanism-based explanation of how single-cause oriented protest events are transformed into a mass movement where previously fragmented causes of contention come to be expressed in conjoint action. Drawing on the case of 2013 Gezi protests in Turkey, we map the protest waves and identify two mechanisms that mediate the influence of repression on mobilization of dissent. The first mechanism is the perceived nature of the cause of contention. Repression leads to scale shift (McAdam et al., 2008) in the first wave when exercised over those who protest for an issue perceived to be innocent. The second mechanism is the experience of repression. Boundary deactivation among protesters and the resulting continuity in protest activity follow scale shift in the second and third waves as experience of repression transforms perceptions of those that were previously framed as others. Our analysis relies on data collected via participant observation, in-depth interviews, and an online survey with 1,352 protesters.
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Papers by Basak Taraktas