As the Indian Ocean region increasingly becomes a more important geopolitical space, global power... more As the Indian Ocean region increasingly becomes a more important geopolitical space, global powers and smaller states are laying down their stakes. This paper examines the military build-up of major Indian Ocean powers, and makes an assessment of how they are gearing to address the evolving challenges. It also studies the implications of the military build-up and naval diplomacy on the overall balance of power in the Indian Ocean.
Though Pakistan’s nuclear-weapons policy continues to remain ambiguous, it has been candid in adm... more Though Pakistan’s nuclear-weapons policy continues to remain ambiguous, it has been candid in admitting to have introduced tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs), in spite of the concerns raised by the international nuclear non-proliferation community. Development of nuclear-capable short-range missile systems, rapid increase in production of fissile material for warheads, and the implementation of “full-spectrum deterrence” capture the importance that Pakistan now ascribes to TNWs in its national security calculus. Pakistan argues that it has introduced TNWs in response to India’s Cold Start doctrine of waging low-scale and lightening-swift conventional attacks. The Cold Start doctrine was introduced by then Chief of Indian Army staff, N. C. Vij, in April 2004 with the objective of mobilizing forces rapidly to significantly hurt Pakistan while simultaneously not crossing Pakistan’s strategic nuclear threshold. Though the armed forces including the Indian Army and the Air Force conducted a...
This article analyses the contrary approaches and perceptions of India and China across the econo... more This article analyses the contrary approaches and perceptions of India and China across the economic, political and military domains including the unresolved border and territorial issues, China’s South Asia policy, military modernisation and nuclear competition, border infrastructure and its impact on military build-up in the border areas. In particular, the article investigates how India–China relations have changed under Chinese President Xi Jinping. Although some continuity is discerned in China’s policies, there is also greater aggressiveness and more vigorous efforts to balance India on China’s part.
The military and scientific leadership of Pakistan has given clear signals that tactical nuclear ... more The military and scientific leadership of Pakistan has given clear signals that tactical nuclear weapons have a vital role in Pakistan’s nuclear weapons policy. Developed to lower Pakistan’s nuclear threshold, these weapons may further deter India from launching a conventional strike to punish Pakistan for its sub-conventional war against India. This has led to a debate on the possible doctrinal responses that India could adopt to counter Pakistan’s tactical nuclear weapons. India could either make its current doctrine of massive retaliation more credible by appropriate signalling or it could revise the doctrine and develop its options of proportionate retaliation. Considering the limitations of both these options, the article argues for developing a doctrinal response that prescribes neither proportionate nor massively disproportionate retaliation.
Indian announcement of having conducted surgical strikes across the de-facto border with Pakistan... more Indian announcement of having conducted surgical strikes across the de-facto border with Pakistan in Jammu and Kashmir has major implications for deterrence-stability in South Asia. New Delhi has sought to devise a military strategy to respond to Pakistan’s sub-conventional war that does not lead to escalation of conflict to nuclear levels and collapse of nuclear deterrence. This paper analyses India’s surgical strikes of September 2016, their nature and the objectives with which they were conducted. Given that they meet most of India’s objectives and that their controlled nature renders possibilities of conflict escalation negligible, this paper concludes that surgical strikes strengthen deterrence-stability in South Asia and that they could become New Delhi’s modus operandi in responding to Pakistan’s sub-conventional war.
This essay uses Snyder’s assessment on the difference between the objectives of deterrence and de... more This essay uses Snyder’s assessment on the difference between the objectives of deterrence and defence as the framework to assess India’s nuclear doctrine. The essay identifies India’s declared nuclear doctrine as a peacetime doctrine by assessing two of its prominent elements - the strategy of massive retaliation and the NFU policy. It then goes on to test the validity of aforementioned elements of the currently declared nuclear doctrine of India in wartime, especially against the backdrop of introduction of tactical nuclear weapons by Pakistan and China’s rapid military modernisation, and argues that there is a need to have separate doctrine laying out nuclear redlines, postures and deployments during war.
India formally applied for membership to the Missile Technology Control Regime in June 2015 as pa... more India formally applied for membership to the Missile Technology Control Regime in June 2015 as part of efforts to integrate itself with the global non-proliferation architecture. This paper identifies key objectives of the regime and makes an assessment of whether India meets the technical requirements to join the MTCR. It then analyses the political understandings which India has established with the leading members of the MTCR on its membership in order to assess the prospects of its inclusion. The paper also examines the implications of India's entry into the MTCR on both India and the global nonproliferation architecture.
The military and scientific leadership of Pakistan has given clear signals that tactical nuclear ... more The military and scientific leadership of Pakistan has given clear signals that tactical nuclear weapons have a vital role in Pakistan’s nuclear weapons policy. Developed to lower Pakistan’s nuclear threshold, these weapons may further deter India from launching a conventional strike to punish Pakistan for its sub-conventional war against India. This has led to a debate on the possible doctrinal responses that India could adopt to counter Pakistan’s tactical nuclear weapons. India could either make its current doctrine of massive retaliation more credible by appropriate signalling or it could revise the doctrine and develop its options of proportionate retaliation. Considering the limitations of both these options, the article argues for developing a doctrinal response that prescribes neither proportionate nor massively disproportionate retaliation.
The Indian Ocean Region is yet again witnessing another phase of strategic rivalries, with global... more The Indian Ocean Region is yet again witnessing another phase of strategic rivalries, with global powers including the US, China and India competing to create their zones of power. This paper examines the military build-up of Indian Ocean powers, and makes an assessment of how they are gearing to address the evolving challenges. It also studies the implications of the military build-up and naval diplomacy on the overall balance of power in the Indian Ocean.
Iran’s nuclear programme has been under intense scrutiny from the international community for mor... more Iran’s nuclear programme has been under intense scrutiny from the international community for more than a decade now, as the country continues to play its cards close to its chest and its nuclear intentions remain unclear. Its failure to declare all nuclear facilities and materials in a timely manner has raised suspicion among the major powers and within the non-proliferation community. In this book, however, the effort is not to find fault in any of the approaches taken so far, or even to analyse the Iranian nuclear programme in any detail, whether it is military or civilian.
Instead this edited volume consists of nine chapters that deal with various aspects of the Iranian nuclear agreement reached on 2 April 2015. Opening with a technical assessment of the Iranian nuclear agreement by Sheel Kant Sharma, the monograph has two chapters focusing on regional reactions: an Israeli perspective authored by Emily Landau, and Gulf reactions written by Kanchi Gupta. Two chapters analysing the three major-power perspectives are included: the US perspective, written by Sylvia Mishra and Uma Purushothaman; the Russian perspective authored by Petr Topychkanov; and the European perspective, by Britta Petersen. Two chapters in the volume are focused on the Indian perspective, one by Arka Biswas providing an overall assessment of India’s response to the Iran nuclear agreement, and a second one by Akhilesh Sati, exploring the possible implications on India’s energy security. Lastly, Rakesh Sood has authored a chapter looking into the impact of the Iranian nuclear agreement on the global non-proliferation architecture.
This paper examines Indian policies and decisions on Iran's nuclear programme and reveals a numbe... more This paper examines Indian policies and decisions on Iran's nuclear programme and reveals a number of critical factors which have influenced New Delhi on this matter in varying degrees.
The paper examines how the Nuclear Suppliers Group has evolved over the years and the role that t... more The paper examines how the Nuclear Suppliers Group has evolved over the years and the role that the Group defines for itself. It also attempts to provide a more nuanced understanding of the consequences of India's NSG-membership.
This paper examines the relationship between the NSG and the NPT and assesses the relevance of NP... more This paper examines the relationship between the NSG and the NPT and assesses the relevance of NPT to the debate on India's participation at the NSG.
Assessment of the developments made so far by Iran and the international community in the on-goin... more Assessment of the developments made so far by Iran and the international community in the on-going nuclear negotiations.
As the Indian Ocean region increasingly becomes a more important geopolitical space, global power... more As the Indian Ocean region increasingly becomes a more important geopolitical space, global powers and smaller states are laying down their stakes. This paper examines the military build-up of major Indian Ocean powers, and makes an assessment of how they are gearing to address the evolving challenges. It also studies the implications of the military build-up and naval diplomacy on the overall balance of power in the Indian Ocean.
Though Pakistan’s nuclear-weapons policy continues to remain ambiguous, it has been candid in adm... more Though Pakistan’s nuclear-weapons policy continues to remain ambiguous, it has been candid in admitting to have introduced tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs), in spite of the concerns raised by the international nuclear non-proliferation community. Development of nuclear-capable short-range missile systems, rapid increase in production of fissile material for warheads, and the implementation of “full-spectrum deterrence” capture the importance that Pakistan now ascribes to TNWs in its national security calculus. Pakistan argues that it has introduced TNWs in response to India’s Cold Start doctrine of waging low-scale and lightening-swift conventional attacks. The Cold Start doctrine was introduced by then Chief of Indian Army staff, N. C. Vij, in April 2004 with the objective of mobilizing forces rapidly to significantly hurt Pakistan while simultaneously not crossing Pakistan’s strategic nuclear threshold. Though the armed forces including the Indian Army and the Air Force conducted a...
This article analyses the contrary approaches and perceptions of India and China across the econo... more This article analyses the contrary approaches and perceptions of India and China across the economic, political and military domains including the unresolved border and territorial issues, China’s South Asia policy, military modernisation and nuclear competition, border infrastructure and its impact on military build-up in the border areas. In particular, the article investigates how India–China relations have changed under Chinese President Xi Jinping. Although some continuity is discerned in China’s policies, there is also greater aggressiveness and more vigorous efforts to balance India on China’s part.
The military and scientific leadership of Pakistan has given clear signals that tactical nuclear ... more The military and scientific leadership of Pakistan has given clear signals that tactical nuclear weapons have a vital role in Pakistan’s nuclear weapons policy. Developed to lower Pakistan’s nuclear threshold, these weapons may further deter India from launching a conventional strike to punish Pakistan for its sub-conventional war against India. This has led to a debate on the possible doctrinal responses that India could adopt to counter Pakistan’s tactical nuclear weapons. India could either make its current doctrine of massive retaliation more credible by appropriate signalling or it could revise the doctrine and develop its options of proportionate retaliation. Considering the limitations of both these options, the article argues for developing a doctrinal response that prescribes neither proportionate nor massively disproportionate retaliation.
Indian announcement of having conducted surgical strikes across the de-facto border with Pakistan... more Indian announcement of having conducted surgical strikes across the de-facto border with Pakistan in Jammu and Kashmir has major implications for deterrence-stability in South Asia. New Delhi has sought to devise a military strategy to respond to Pakistan’s sub-conventional war that does not lead to escalation of conflict to nuclear levels and collapse of nuclear deterrence. This paper analyses India’s surgical strikes of September 2016, their nature and the objectives with which they were conducted. Given that they meet most of India’s objectives and that their controlled nature renders possibilities of conflict escalation negligible, this paper concludes that surgical strikes strengthen deterrence-stability in South Asia and that they could become New Delhi’s modus operandi in responding to Pakistan’s sub-conventional war.
This essay uses Snyder’s assessment on the difference between the objectives of deterrence and de... more This essay uses Snyder’s assessment on the difference between the objectives of deterrence and defence as the framework to assess India’s nuclear doctrine. The essay identifies India’s declared nuclear doctrine as a peacetime doctrine by assessing two of its prominent elements - the strategy of massive retaliation and the NFU policy. It then goes on to test the validity of aforementioned elements of the currently declared nuclear doctrine of India in wartime, especially against the backdrop of introduction of tactical nuclear weapons by Pakistan and China’s rapid military modernisation, and argues that there is a need to have separate doctrine laying out nuclear redlines, postures and deployments during war.
India formally applied for membership to the Missile Technology Control Regime in June 2015 as pa... more India formally applied for membership to the Missile Technology Control Regime in June 2015 as part of efforts to integrate itself with the global non-proliferation architecture. This paper identifies key objectives of the regime and makes an assessment of whether India meets the technical requirements to join the MTCR. It then analyses the political understandings which India has established with the leading members of the MTCR on its membership in order to assess the prospects of its inclusion. The paper also examines the implications of India's entry into the MTCR on both India and the global nonproliferation architecture.
The military and scientific leadership of Pakistan has given clear signals that tactical nuclear ... more The military and scientific leadership of Pakistan has given clear signals that tactical nuclear weapons have a vital role in Pakistan’s nuclear weapons policy. Developed to lower Pakistan’s nuclear threshold, these weapons may further deter India from launching a conventional strike to punish Pakistan for its sub-conventional war against India. This has led to a debate on the possible doctrinal responses that India could adopt to counter Pakistan’s tactical nuclear weapons. India could either make its current doctrine of massive retaliation more credible by appropriate signalling or it could revise the doctrine and develop its options of proportionate retaliation. Considering the limitations of both these options, the article argues for developing a doctrinal response that prescribes neither proportionate nor massively disproportionate retaliation.
The Indian Ocean Region is yet again witnessing another phase of strategic rivalries, with global... more The Indian Ocean Region is yet again witnessing another phase of strategic rivalries, with global powers including the US, China and India competing to create their zones of power. This paper examines the military build-up of Indian Ocean powers, and makes an assessment of how they are gearing to address the evolving challenges. It also studies the implications of the military build-up and naval diplomacy on the overall balance of power in the Indian Ocean.
Iran’s nuclear programme has been under intense scrutiny from the international community for mor... more Iran’s nuclear programme has been under intense scrutiny from the international community for more than a decade now, as the country continues to play its cards close to its chest and its nuclear intentions remain unclear. Its failure to declare all nuclear facilities and materials in a timely manner has raised suspicion among the major powers and within the non-proliferation community. In this book, however, the effort is not to find fault in any of the approaches taken so far, or even to analyse the Iranian nuclear programme in any detail, whether it is military or civilian.
Instead this edited volume consists of nine chapters that deal with various aspects of the Iranian nuclear agreement reached on 2 April 2015. Opening with a technical assessment of the Iranian nuclear agreement by Sheel Kant Sharma, the monograph has two chapters focusing on regional reactions: an Israeli perspective authored by Emily Landau, and Gulf reactions written by Kanchi Gupta. Two chapters analysing the three major-power perspectives are included: the US perspective, written by Sylvia Mishra and Uma Purushothaman; the Russian perspective authored by Petr Topychkanov; and the European perspective, by Britta Petersen. Two chapters in the volume are focused on the Indian perspective, one by Arka Biswas providing an overall assessment of India’s response to the Iran nuclear agreement, and a second one by Akhilesh Sati, exploring the possible implications on India’s energy security. Lastly, Rakesh Sood has authored a chapter looking into the impact of the Iranian nuclear agreement on the global non-proliferation architecture.
This paper examines Indian policies and decisions on Iran's nuclear programme and reveals a numbe... more This paper examines Indian policies and decisions on Iran's nuclear programme and reveals a number of critical factors which have influenced New Delhi on this matter in varying degrees.
The paper examines how the Nuclear Suppliers Group has evolved over the years and the role that t... more The paper examines how the Nuclear Suppliers Group has evolved over the years and the role that the Group defines for itself. It also attempts to provide a more nuanced understanding of the consequences of India's NSG-membership.
This paper examines the relationship between the NSG and the NPT and assesses the relevance of NP... more This paper examines the relationship between the NSG and the NPT and assesses the relevance of NPT to the debate on India's participation at the NSG.
Assessment of the developments made so far by Iran and the international community in the on-goin... more Assessment of the developments made so far by Iran and the international community in the on-going nuclear negotiations.
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Papers by Arka Biswas
architecture.
Instead this edited volume consists of nine chapters that deal with various aspects of the Iranian nuclear agreement reached on 2 April 2015. Opening with a technical assessment of the Iranian nuclear agreement by Sheel Kant Sharma, the monograph has two chapters focusing on regional reactions: an Israeli perspective authored by Emily Landau, and Gulf reactions written by Kanchi Gupta. Two chapters analysing the three major-power perspectives are included: the US perspective, written by Sylvia Mishra and Uma Purushothaman; the Russian perspective authored by Petr Topychkanov; and the European perspective, by Britta Petersen. Two chapters in the volume are focused on the Indian perspective, one by Arka Biswas providing an overall assessment of India’s response to the Iran nuclear agreement, and a second one by Akhilesh Sati, exploring the possible implications on India’s energy security. Lastly, Rakesh Sood has authored a chapter looking into the impact of the Iranian nuclear agreement on the global non-proliferation architecture.
architecture.
Instead this edited volume consists of nine chapters that deal with various aspects of the Iranian nuclear agreement reached on 2 April 2015. Opening with a technical assessment of the Iranian nuclear agreement by Sheel Kant Sharma, the monograph has two chapters focusing on regional reactions: an Israeli perspective authored by Emily Landau, and Gulf reactions written by Kanchi Gupta. Two chapters analysing the three major-power perspectives are included: the US perspective, written by Sylvia Mishra and Uma Purushothaman; the Russian perspective authored by Petr Topychkanov; and the European perspective, by Britta Petersen. Two chapters in the volume are focused on the Indian perspective, one by Arka Biswas providing an overall assessment of India’s response to the Iran nuclear agreement, and a second one by Akhilesh Sati, exploring the possible implications on India’s energy security. Lastly, Rakesh Sood has authored a chapter looking into the impact of the Iranian nuclear agreement on the global non-proliferation architecture.