International Journal of Accounting and Financial Reporting, 2019
Purpose: The purpose of this research is to investigate the financial performance of Islamic and ... more Purpose: The purpose of this research is to investigate the financial performance of Islamic and conventional mutual funds in the Egyptian financial market. Design/methodology/approach: This research is based on analyzing the risk and return of Islamic and conventional mutual funds using financial performance and risk measures. The analysis is based on the weekly returns of a sample of 6 Islamic equity mutual funds and 15 conventional equity mutual funds from April 2008 to May 2015. Both the Egyptian market index and the Morgan Stanley Capital International indices for Egypt are used as market benchmarks for the Egyptian market. Findings: The results show that Islamic mutual funds underperformed both conventional mutual funds and the Egyptian market index. As for risk measures, Islamic funds had the lowest total and systematic risk whether compared to conventional mutual funds or the Egyptian market indices. Thus, Islamic funds do provide hedging opportunities as showed during the p...
The objective of this research is to highlight and explore factors affecting consumers' inten... more The objective of this research is to highlight and explore factors affecting consumers' intentions for accepting online shopping. It is important to find out variables that impede Egyptian consumers' intentions for accepting online purchase. The research approached a convenient sample out of the internet consumers' population. An online survey was administered to collect data. The initial interviews with Egyptian online vendors and literature review showed that the important independent factors that affect Egyptian consumers' intentions for accepting internet shopping, as dependent variable, were: (1) the trust in website, (2) e-service quality, (3) consumers attitude toward online shopping and the consumers demographic characteristics as moderating variables. The research findings pointed out that all the demographic characteristics had significant impact on the consumers' intentions for online shopping, Men were more oriented for accepting online shopping compa...
In developed countries, diversity of corporate boards has been the subject of public and regulato... more In developed countries, diversity of corporate boards has been the subject of public and regulatory focus, the ethnic and gender diversity grabbed a particular interest. Researchers have begun to turn their attention to the reasons corporations may seek to increase women representation on their boards which is still far below their numbers in the population and the workforce. This research identifies factors which lead Egyptian companies to appoint women directors, and examines the impact of increased women representation on corporate profitability. The results show that some factors positively impact nominating women directors. Those factors are; advanced education, owning a variety of work experience, membership in /certified from professional organizations, having the right connections either political or business, having a record of accomplishments, ability to devote quality time, and finally, younger women is preferable for board positions. Although the participation of women d...
There is an unquestionable important role of a country‟s banking sector in the overall economic a... more There is an unquestionable important role of a country‟s banking sector in the overall economic activities development where the banking sector is crucial for global economic stability and development. Ultimately, failure in such a growth-supporting sector for the economy can lead to an associated effect for the entire global economy where the global financial crisis is a vivid demonstration of how banks can transmit devastative economic shocks into the economic Abstract
This study examined the relationship between trading volume and stock return to shed more light o... more This study examined the relationship between trading volume and stock return to shed more light on the structure of the Egyptian stock exchange and the information arrival pattern, aiming to reach recommendations which may be beneficial to the stock exchange, investors and other stakeholders. The study found that there is a contemporaneous relationship between trading volume and return, besides the historical data of trading volume especially for the last five days helps improve the prediction of future return. Even though one should not only rely on trading volume to predict return as it explains a very small part of change in stock return. Also, the Egyptian stock exchange is informationally inefficient as the information arrives to the market sequentially not simultaneously and that there is much noise and speculative trading. The study recommends that the number of transactions is a better measure of trading volume in the Egyptian stock market. These results are important to the...
According to life cycle theory of dividends, dividends tend to be paid by mature firms while youn... more According to life cycle theory of dividends, dividends tend to be paid by mature firms while young ones face relatively abundant investment opportunities with limited resources so that retention dominates distribution. We test this theory in the Egyptian market using a sample of the most active 100 companies during the period 2005-2010. We use a random-effects panel data model after controlling for the firm’s characteristics. We find that returned earnings to total equity ratio has highly significant and positive effect on dividend and that total equity to total asset ratio has no effect. Accordingly, the only part of the shareholder equity that affects dividend is the retained earnings indicating that earned capital not contributed is the main determinant of dividend. This provides evidence for the existence of the life cycle theory of dividends in Egypt. In addition, profitability has a significant positive effect on dividend, the higher the profitability of the company the higher...
Purpose This paper aims to investigate the possible non-linear effect of net working capital (NWC... more Purpose This paper aims to investigate the possible non-linear effect of net working capital (NWC) level on profitability for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region listed companies. Furthermore, the study tests the possible interactive effect of cash levels on the relationship between NWC and profitability. Design/methodology/approach NWC level is the independent variable and profitability is the dependent variable using two proxies, return on assets (ROA) and returns on equity (ROE). Control variables are size, leverage, gross domestic product growth and sales revenue growth. The generalized method of moments was used to analyze the data of 134 consumer-goods listed firms in 12 MENA countries for the period 2013–2019. Findings The results demonstrate that NWC levels had a non-linear effect on profitability using ROA as a profitability proxy while results were insignificant using ROE as a profitability proxy. Furthermore, results show the absence of interactive effects between ...
International Journal of Accounting and Financial Reporting
Purpose – the main purpose of the study is to investigate an accurate prediction method for banki... more Purpose – the main purpose of the study is to investigate an accurate prediction method for banking distress applied on a set of Egyptian banks.Methodology - the researchers have compared the prediction accuracy of the discriminant analysis and logistic regression model, to choose the most appropriate one. The data has been collected from the “Bank scope” data base and for the period of 2002–2016.Findings – the results of the study revealed that the predictive accuracy of discriminant analysis outperformed that of the logistic regression model.Originality - The study adds value to the literature as it is one of the few studies that is concerned with predicating the banking financial distress especially in Egypt.
International Journal of Accounting and Financial Reporting
Purpose: The purpose of this research is to conduct a comparative analysis of CAR determinants be... more Purpose: The purpose of this research is to conduct a comparative analysis of CAR determinants between Islamic and conventional banks.Design/methodology/approach: The analysis is conducted using GMM on annual data for 38 Islamic banks (IBs) and 75 conventional banks (CBs) in 10 MENA countries during 2009-2013. CAR is used as a dependent variable and is measured by the Basel framework. The independent variables are: profitability; liquidity risk; credit risk; bank size; deposits to assets; operational efficiency; portfolio risk; and two macro-economic variables (GDP growth rate and average world governance indicators for each country).Findings: The results show that both IBs and CBs have a significant association between CAR and (bank size, operational efficiency, and GDP growth rate) and CAR is affected retroactively on the long-run. In IBs the results show a significant association between CAR and deposits to assets ratio. However, CBs results show an association between CAR and (p...
International Journal of Accounting and Financial Reporting
Purpose: the primary purpose of the study is to determine the effect of both internal and externa... more Purpose: the primary purpose of the study is to determine the effect of both internal and external factors on stock returns volatility using different statistical methods, applied on Egyptian stock exchange.Methodology: the researchers have compared the accuracy of (GLS Model, GARCH Model, and Neural Network) in predicting the stock return volatility to choose the most accurate one. Data was collected from the Egyptian Stock Exchange (EGYX 30) for the period (2014 to 2017) on a monthly basis.Findings: The results of the study revealed that the Neural Network Model has proven to outperform the traditional models in the prediction of stock return volatility.Originality: the study contributes to literature as it used Artificial Neural Network in two functions (Prediction of stock return volatility) and (Classification of the volatility to –high volatility and Low volatility). Also few studies concerned with stock return volatility in developing countries, especially Egypt.
As an emerging market, Egyptian stock market is characterized by inefficiency which is confirmed ... more As an emerging market, Egyptian stock market is characterized by inefficiency which is confirmed empirically in this research. This provoked us to test the ability of technical analysis classical patterns in predicting the future returns through calculating the expected price target consequently the expected future return and compare it with the actual return.Statistical techniques and models including Box Pierce (Ljung-Box), Variance ratio test, Runs test, and t-test bootstrapping technique have been applied to test the research proposed hypotheses. The empirical results revealed that the Egyptian stock market is inefficient as returns don’t follow random walk and are dependent, it is found also that the actual returns have significantly exceeded the expected returns of the detected patterns indicating that classical patterns can perfectly predict the direction of the price movements rather than the exact price targets.
This research aims to examine the effect of two types of corporate actions,“Stock Split” and “Sto... more This research aims to examine the effect of two types of corporate actions,“Stock Split” and “Stock Dividends”, on the shares’ prices, liquidity changes, and price volatility; and to investigate the efficiency of the Egyptian stock market in response to the announcement of the corporate actions. The research provides the investors with a scientific tool to predict and explain changes in stock prices in response to announced corporate actions and to improve their investment decision-making process.The objective is to investigate whether the two actions collectively or independently have a positive impact on the prices of the related stocks listed on the Egyptian Stock Exchange (EGX), and assess the similarities and dissimilarities between their individual impacts.We applied the “Event Study” approach to measure the impact of the stock splits and stock dividends announcement on the stock prices through measuring the cumulated average abnormal return (CAAR) resulted from events to asse...
This study examined the effect of using inter and exit signals of three of the most common used t... more This study examined the effect of using inter and exit signals of three of the most common used technical analysis strategies on achieving abnormal return compared with the buy and hold strategy in the Egyptian security market. The tests were done using data for short term, relatively long term, during bull and bear market. Using bootstrap methodology and wilcoxon/mann-whitney test for daily closing prices during the period from 1-1-1998 to 14-1-2016, the results indicated that; First, market timing with technical analysis yields more return and reduces risk in general. Second, short term investing is not recommended at all, as it is less profitable even than bear market period. Third, in long term and during bull market technical analysis is more profitable than short term. Fourth, technical analysis importance have been reduced during the last few years due to the effect of the Egyptian revolution on the security market. As for investors, they should use technical analysis trading...
Capital adequacy rules are safety valve for regulators and banks' clients/shareholders to... more Capital adequacy rules are safety valve for regulators and banks' clients/shareholders to reduce expected risks faced by commercial banks especially for cross border transactions as these rules are applied compulsory by all banks internationally. Applying these rules will achieve rational management and governance. This paper examines explanatory victors that influence capital adequacy ratio (CAR) in the Egyptian commercial banks. The study covers 36 banks during the period from 2004-2013. We examined the relationship between CAR as dependent variable and the following independent variables: earning assets ratio, profitability, and liquidity, Loan loss provision as measure of credit risk, net interest margin growth, size, loans assets ratio and deposits assets ratio. Furthermore, we investigate determinants of CAR before and after the 2007-2008 international financial crises. Results vary according to the period understudy. For the whole period 2003 to 2013 results show that liquidity, size and management quality are the most significant variables. Before the period 2008 results show that asset quality, size and profitability are the most significant variables. After the period 2009 results show that asset quality, size, liquidity, management quality and credit risk are the most significant variable that explain the variance of Egyptian banks' CAR.
International Journal of Accounting and Financial Reporting, 2019
Purpose: The purpose of this research is to investigate the financial performance of Islamic and ... more Purpose: The purpose of this research is to investigate the financial performance of Islamic and conventional mutual funds in the Egyptian financial market. Design/methodology/approach: This research is based on analyzing the risk and return of Islamic and conventional mutual funds using financial performance and risk measures. The analysis is based on the weekly returns of a sample of 6 Islamic equity mutual funds and 15 conventional equity mutual funds from April 2008 to May 2015. Both the Egyptian market index and the Morgan Stanley Capital International indices for Egypt are used as market benchmarks for the Egyptian market. Findings: The results show that Islamic mutual funds underperformed both conventional mutual funds and the Egyptian market index. As for risk measures, Islamic funds had the lowest total and systematic risk whether compared to conventional mutual funds or the Egyptian market indices. Thus, Islamic funds do provide hedging opportunities as showed during the p...
The objective of this research is to highlight and explore factors affecting consumers' inten... more The objective of this research is to highlight and explore factors affecting consumers' intentions for accepting online shopping. It is important to find out variables that impede Egyptian consumers' intentions for accepting online purchase. The research approached a convenient sample out of the internet consumers' population. An online survey was administered to collect data. The initial interviews with Egyptian online vendors and literature review showed that the important independent factors that affect Egyptian consumers' intentions for accepting internet shopping, as dependent variable, were: (1) the trust in website, (2) e-service quality, (3) consumers attitude toward online shopping and the consumers demographic characteristics as moderating variables. The research findings pointed out that all the demographic characteristics had significant impact on the consumers' intentions for online shopping, Men were more oriented for accepting online shopping compa...
In developed countries, diversity of corporate boards has been the subject of public and regulato... more In developed countries, diversity of corporate boards has been the subject of public and regulatory focus, the ethnic and gender diversity grabbed a particular interest. Researchers have begun to turn their attention to the reasons corporations may seek to increase women representation on their boards which is still far below their numbers in the population and the workforce. This research identifies factors which lead Egyptian companies to appoint women directors, and examines the impact of increased women representation on corporate profitability. The results show that some factors positively impact nominating women directors. Those factors are; advanced education, owning a variety of work experience, membership in /certified from professional organizations, having the right connections either political or business, having a record of accomplishments, ability to devote quality time, and finally, younger women is preferable for board positions. Although the participation of women d...
There is an unquestionable important role of a country‟s banking sector in the overall economic a... more There is an unquestionable important role of a country‟s banking sector in the overall economic activities development where the banking sector is crucial for global economic stability and development. Ultimately, failure in such a growth-supporting sector for the economy can lead to an associated effect for the entire global economy where the global financial crisis is a vivid demonstration of how banks can transmit devastative economic shocks into the economic Abstract
This study examined the relationship between trading volume and stock return to shed more light o... more This study examined the relationship between trading volume and stock return to shed more light on the structure of the Egyptian stock exchange and the information arrival pattern, aiming to reach recommendations which may be beneficial to the stock exchange, investors and other stakeholders. The study found that there is a contemporaneous relationship between trading volume and return, besides the historical data of trading volume especially for the last five days helps improve the prediction of future return. Even though one should not only rely on trading volume to predict return as it explains a very small part of change in stock return. Also, the Egyptian stock exchange is informationally inefficient as the information arrives to the market sequentially not simultaneously and that there is much noise and speculative trading. The study recommends that the number of transactions is a better measure of trading volume in the Egyptian stock market. These results are important to the...
According to life cycle theory of dividends, dividends tend to be paid by mature firms while youn... more According to life cycle theory of dividends, dividends tend to be paid by mature firms while young ones face relatively abundant investment opportunities with limited resources so that retention dominates distribution. We test this theory in the Egyptian market using a sample of the most active 100 companies during the period 2005-2010. We use a random-effects panel data model after controlling for the firm’s characteristics. We find that returned earnings to total equity ratio has highly significant and positive effect on dividend and that total equity to total asset ratio has no effect. Accordingly, the only part of the shareholder equity that affects dividend is the retained earnings indicating that earned capital not contributed is the main determinant of dividend. This provides evidence for the existence of the life cycle theory of dividends in Egypt. In addition, profitability has a significant positive effect on dividend, the higher the profitability of the company the higher...
Purpose This paper aims to investigate the possible non-linear effect of net working capital (NWC... more Purpose This paper aims to investigate the possible non-linear effect of net working capital (NWC) level on profitability for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region listed companies. Furthermore, the study tests the possible interactive effect of cash levels on the relationship between NWC and profitability. Design/methodology/approach NWC level is the independent variable and profitability is the dependent variable using two proxies, return on assets (ROA) and returns on equity (ROE). Control variables are size, leverage, gross domestic product growth and sales revenue growth. The generalized method of moments was used to analyze the data of 134 consumer-goods listed firms in 12 MENA countries for the period 2013–2019. Findings The results demonstrate that NWC levels had a non-linear effect on profitability using ROA as a profitability proxy while results were insignificant using ROE as a profitability proxy. Furthermore, results show the absence of interactive effects between ...
International Journal of Accounting and Financial Reporting
Purpose – the main purpose of the study is to investigate an accurate prediction method for banki... more Purpose – the main purpose of the study is to investigate an accurate prediction method for banking distress applied on a set of Egyptian banks.Methodology - the researchers have compared the prediction accuracy of the discriminant analysis and logistic regression model, to choose the most appropriate one. The data has been collected from the “Bank scope” data base and for the period of 2002–2016.Findings – the results of the study revealed that the predictive accuracy of discriminant analysis outperformed that of the logistic regression model.Originality - The study adds value to the literature as it is one of the few studies that is concerned with predicating the banking financial distress especially in Egypt.
International Journal of Accounting and Financial Reporting
Purpose: The purpose of this research is to conduct a comparative analysis of CAR determinants be... more Purpose: The purpose of this research is to conduct a comparative analysis of CAR determinants between Islamic and conventional banks.Design/methodology/approach: The analysis is conducted using GMM on annual data for 38 Islamic banks (IBs) and 75 conventional banks (CBs) in 10 MENA countries during 2009-2013. CAR is used as a dependent variable and is measured by the Basel framework. The independent variables are: profitability; liquidity risk; credit risk; bank size; deposits to assets; operational efficiency; portfolio risk; and two macro-economic variables (GDP growth rate and average world governance indicators for each country).Findings: The results show that both IBs and CBs have a significant association between CAR and (bank size, operational efficiency, and GDP growth rate) and CAR is affected retroactively on the long-run. In IBs the results show a significant association between CAR and deposits to assets ratio. However, CBs results show an association between CAR and (p...
International Journal of Accounting and Financial Reporting
Purpose: the primary purpose of the study is to determine the effect of both internal and externa... more Purpose: the primary purpose of the study is to determine the effect of both internal and external factors on stock returns volatility using different statistical methods, applied on Egyptian stock exchange.Methodology: the researchers have compared the accuracy of (GLS Model, GARCH Model, and Neural Network) in predicting the stock return volatility to choose the most accurate one. Data was collected from the Egyptian Stock Exchange (EGYX 30) for the period (2014 to 2017) on a monthly basis.Findings: The results of the study revealed that the Neural Network Model has proven to outperform the traditional models in the prediction of stock return volatility.Originality: the study contributes to literature as it used Artificial Neural Network in two functions (Prediction of stock return volatility) and (Classification of the volatility to –high volatility and Low volatility). Also few studies concerned with stock return volatility in developing countries, especially Egypt.
As an emerging market, Egyptian stock market is characterized by inefficiency which is confirmed ... more As an emerging market, Egyptian stock market is characterized by inefficiency which is confirmed empirically in this research. This provoked us to test the ability of technical analysis classical patterns in predicting the future returns through calculating the expected price target consequently the expected future return and compare it with the actual return.Statistical techniques and models including Box Pierce (Ljung-Box), Variance ratio test, Runs test, and t-test bootstrapping technique have been applied to test the research proposed hypotheses. The empirical results revealed that the Egyptian stock market is inefficient as returns don’t follow random walk and are dependent, it is found also that the actual returns have significantly exceeded the expected returns of the detected patterns indicating that classical patterns can perfectly predict the direction of the price movements rather than the exact price targets.
This research aims to examine the effect of two types of corporate actions,“Stock Split” and “Sto... more This research aims to examine the effect of two types of corporate actions,“Stock Split” and “Stock Dividends”, on the shares’ prices, liquidity changes, and price volatility; and to investigate the efficiency of the Egyptian stock market in response to the announcement of the corporate actions. The research provides the investors with a scientific tool to predict and explain changes in stock prices in response to announced corporate actions and to improve their investment decision-making process.The objective is to investigate whether the two actions collectively or independently have a positive impact on the prices of the related stocks listed on the Egyptian Stock Exchange (EGX), and assess the similarities and dissimilarities between their individual impacts.We applied the “Event Study” approach to measure the impact of the stock splits and stock dividends announcement on the stock prices through measuring the cumulated average abnormal return (CAAR) resulted from events to asse...
This study examined the effect of using inter and exit signals of three of the most common used t... more This study examined the effect of using inter and exit signals of three of the most common used technical analysis strategies on achieving abnormal return compared with the buy and hold strategy in the Egyptian security market. The tests were done using data for short term, relatively long term, during bull and bear market. Using bootstrap methodology and wilcoxon/mann-whitney test for daily closing prices during the period from 1-1-1998 to 14-1-2016, the results indicated that; First, market timing with technical analysis yields more return and reduces risk in general. Second, short term investing is not recommended at all, as it is less profitable even than bear market period. Third, in long term and during bull market technical analysis is more profitable than short term. Fourth, technical analysis importance have been reduced during the last few years due to the effect of the Egyptian revolution on the security market. As for investors, they should use technical analysis trading...
Capital adequacy rules are safety valve for regulators and banks' clients/shareholders to... more Capital adequacy rules are safety valve for regulators and banks' clients/shareholders to reduce expected risks faced by commercial banks especially for cross border transactions as these rules are applied compulsory by all banks internationally. Applying these rules will achieve rational management and governance. This paper examines explanatory victors that influence capital adequacy ratio (CAR) in the Egyptian commercial banks. The study covers 36 banks during the period from 2004-2013. We examined the relationship between CAR as dependent variable and the following independent variables: earning assets ratio, profitability, and liquidity, Loan loss provision as measure of credit risk, net interest margin growth, size, loans assets ratio and deposits assets ratio. Furthermore, we investigate determinants of CAR before and after the 2007-2008 international financial crises. Results vary according to the period understudy. For the whole period 2003 to 2013 results show that liquidity, size and management quality are the most significant variables. Before the period 2008 results show that asset quality, size and profitability are the most significant variables. After the period 2009 results show that asset quality, size, liquidity, management quality and credit risk are the most significant variable that explain the variance of Egyptian banks' CAR.
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Papers by Dr. Osama Ansary